WW XXXIII - Other Minds and Hands

[The Saucepan Man]

There’s probably little point in me doing this, but I shall anyway, for tradition’s sake, if nothing else.

Day 4 votes:

Volo: ++Mac (Mac-1)
Mac: ++Volo (Mac-1, Volo-1)
Legate: ++Mac (Mac-2, Volo-1)
Aganzir: ++Mac (Mac-3, Volo-1)
Kath: ++Mac (Mac-4, Volo-1)
Anguirel: ++Kath (Mac-4, Volo-1, Kath-1)
Diamond: ++Mac (Mac-5, Volo-1, Kath-1)
SpM: ++Volo (Mac-5, Volo-2, Kath-1)
Gil: ++Mac (Mac-6, Volo-2, Kath-1)
Shasta: ++Volo (Mac-6, Volo-3, Kath-1)
Anguirel: --Kath, ++Volo (Mac-6, Volo-4)
Gil: --Mac, ++Volo (Mac-5, Volo-5)

I strongly suspect that, if they had the opportunity to do so, one of the Wolves will have voted for Mac, particularly if the Cobbler voted for Volo (although the Cobbler will not have known for sure which one was lying and which one was telling the truth). The other Wolf will almost certainly have voted for Volo.

Mac voters: Aganzir, Kath, Diamond

Based upon Volo’s dream about her, I believe that Aganzir may well be a Wolf. Knowing Mac to be a Wolf and Volo to be innocent, the obvious move (for one of the Wolves, at least) would have been to support Volo’s claim. Other than Legate, Aganzir was the only villager who appeared to have no doubt whatsoever that Volo was telling the truth.

Kath’s to-ing and fro-ing on the issue looks suspicious to me, as if she was making her mind up what the best move for a Wolfish (or Cobbleresque) Kath was. So, if I am wrong about Aganzir, Kath is probably the Wolf here. If not, she could be the Cobbler.

Diamond’s reaction to the situation looks entirely genuine to me.

Volo voters: SpM, Anguirel, Shasta, Gil

The likelihood is that there is at least one Wolf and quite possibly a Cobbler here.

Shasta’s vote looks reasonable to me, as it was by no means clear which claim was true (even with the benefit of hindsight) and Volo’s duplicity (albeit in a good cause) definately looked dodgy.

As a last minute switcher, Gil’s vote is more suspicious, but I cannot fault his conclusion that a double-lynch was in the village’s best interests, as I thought this to be the best outcome for anyone who was in doubt. Still, the last minute nature of it suggests to me that he may be the Cobbler.

As for Anguirel, I think it quite possible that he is the Wolf among the Volo voters. The reason that he gave for switching his vote was that Volo was behaving smugly. An outrageously capricious and unreasoned vote at such a critical time. Possibly, he hoped that everyone would conclude that a Wolf wouldn’t possibly make such an outrageous move. It is also worth noting that he did a similar thing on Day 3, when everyone else who was around had concluded (correctly) that Brinniel was most likely a Wolf.

So, if anyone cares, my thoughts are:

Probable Wolves
Aganzir
Anguirel

Possibly Wolf or Cobbler
Kath

Possible Cobbler
Gil

Most likely innocent
Shasta
Diamond

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Kath

If this is correct then surely we'd be better off focusing on finding a wolf than lynching Sauce. I mean, we can just ignore Sauce, but the wolves will still have an effect.

I am going to try to stay calm, but if the Day carries on like this I can see myself starting to fume.

If you are innocent, you would be better off trying to figure out who the Wolves are and who the actual Cobbler is, as I am trying to do.

[The Saucepan Man]

A few thoughts on earlier comments before I head off for some sleep.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Kath, please forgive me if I say it's really hard to believe you would have believed Mac even much enough to be that confused.
Di, I guess you, too, should have known better than to be confused if the liar was Mac or Volo.

Aganzir, may I remind you that only you and Legate considered there to be no doubt about Volo’s claim - the two villagers who Volo’s dreams apparently cleared. That and the fact that Volo’s suspicions tallied with his own no doubt explain Legate’s position. As for you, if, as I suspect, you are a Wolf, it was clearly in your interests to support him.

If you are innocent, however, you should bear in mind that there was no way that any innocent (or at least any innocent not seemingly cleared by his dreams) could be certain which claim was true and which one was not.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

At least we won't lose if we lynch him now.

Well, you might not lose, but the village will.

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Today is a day when analysis will actually pay off.

So why is hardly anyone bothering to do any serious analysis?

Bye for now. I hope that I am not still in Coventry when I return.