WW XXXIII - Other Minds and Hands

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Volo

Well, having read his posts I am pretty sure he is innocent. Compare this Legate with the wolf Legate in the prevous games...

I have, since I am very familiar with a Wolfish Legate.

I agree that he is far more aggressive now than when he has previously been a Wolf. However, I am pretty sure that this is down to two things. First off, he has been under a fair amount of scrutiny in this game, almost from the off. Secondly, I would not expect him to act the same way now as a Wolf as he has in the past. Indeed, given that there are a number here who have experience of a Wolfish Legate, I would expect him to act quite differently.

However, if I was not convinced by his behaviour before, I am now from the way in which he took such a dominant role in condemning an innocent Boro. He even, at one point, said something like "Either Boro is a Wolf or SpM is". A classic Wolfish ploy directed towards getting two innocents killed in succession. I have used it mysef on a number of occasions.

[Volo]

I'd say that this is the usual two big innocents killing each other, SPM. He's not going to be online toDay, BTW if you forgot.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Volo

He's not going to be online toDay, BTW if you forgot.

Well, you seemed to have no qualms about turning against a Boro who was clearly unlikely to be able to return to defend himself. I am well aware that Legate will be absent toDay. However, it most certainly does not preclude his Wolfishness. And there is more than enough evidence to condemn him already, in my view.

Now, the Day 2 votes.

Shasta: ++Legate (Legate-1)
SpM: ++Legate (Legate-2)
Boromir: ++Legate (Legate-3)
Lommy: ++Xyzzy (Legate-3, Xyzzy-1)
Volo: ++Boromir (Legate-3, Xyzzy-1, Boromir-1)
Anguirel: ++Brinniel (Legate-3, Xyzzy-1, Boromir-1, Brinniel-1)
Rune: ++Mac (Legate-3, Xyzzy-1, Boromir-1, Brinniel-1, Mac-1)
Kath: ++Rune (Legate-3, Xyzzy-1, Boromir-1, Brinniel-1, Mac-1, Rune-1)
Legate: ++Boromir (Legate-3, Xyzzy-1, Boromir-2, Brinniel-1, Mac-1, Rune-1)
Mac: ++Rune (Legate-3, Xyzzy-1, Boromir-2, Brinniel-1, Mac-1, Rune-2)
Aganzir: ++Boromir (Legate-3, Xyzzy-1, Boromir-3, Brinniel-1, Mac-1, Rune-2)
Diamond: ++Boromir (Legate-3, Xyzzy-1, Boromir-4, Brinniel-1, Mac-1, Rune-2)
Rune: --Mac, ++Boromir (Legate-3, Xyzzy-1, Boromir-5, Brinniel-1, Rune-2)
Brinniel: ++Rune (Legate-3, Xyzzy-1, Boromir-5, Brinniel-1, Rune-3)

Did not vote: Durelin, Xyzzy, Gil

Legate voters: Shasta, SpM, Boro

Legate’s votes were received early in the Day. I am surprised that he did not receive more, but I consider that this was largely down to his own devious machinations (and those of his fellows) throughout the Day. Because I am convinced that Legate is a Wolf, and know two of the Legate voters to be innocent, I consider Shasta also likely to be innocent. It would have been a dangerous wolf-on-wolf vote.

Boro voters: Volo, Legate, Aganzir, Diamond, Rune (retracted from Mac)

I have no reason to reconsider the veracity of Volo’s claim (although his insistance on Legate's innocence is beginning to unnerve me), so his vote was innocent in my view. I also doubt that more than two Wolves, at most, voted for Boro. One of them was Legate. If there was another (and I think it likely that there was), I suspect that it may well have been Rune, with a view to ensuring his own, and Legate's, safety. However, I do not discount the possibility that Aganzir and Diamond may have been voting here to save a fellow Wolf. Particularly Aganzir, as it was her vote that put Boro level with Legate.

Rune voters: Kath, Mac, Brinniel

The votes against Rune came rather late in the Day, and it was Kath that started them. Mac and Brinniel fanned the flames. Difficult to draw any conclusions without knowing whether or not Rune is a Wolf. If he is, then Kath and Mac are looking very innocent as these are unlikely Wolf-on-Wolf votes, given that Rune was under a fair amount of suspicion. Brinniel’s less so, as it came at a time when Rune was probably safe. If Rune is not a Wolf, then the analysis, to my mind, depends on Legate’s guilt, since neither were really directed towards saving him. Since, however, I consider Legate to be as guilty as hell, these votes (those of Mac and Kath) look innocent to me.

Others

The only other votes were Lommy's for Xyzzy, Anguirel’s for Brinniel and Rune’s for Mac (later retracted). Lommy's vote was besed primarily on Xyzzy's lack of participation, and so little can be concluded from that. Anguirel’s vote looks to be a safe one, since there seems to have been little appetite to vote for Brin, although he did plead for support in his case. Rune’s vote for Mac was a very safe one, but was subsequently retracted for a much less safe one, but one which might have been directed towards saving both himself and a fellow Wolf.

So, assuming that there were two Wolves among the Legate voters, then I consider one of Rune, Aganzir and Diamond to be a Wolf. Rune is currently the one that I am most suspicious of. I also consider that there may well be a Wolf among the non-voters, Xyzzy and Gil (given that Durelin has been proven innocent). Which leaves one more. My inclination is to look to Brinniel, for her ‘safe vote’ for Rune. I am not discounting the possibility of a Wolfish Anguirel but, given my view on Legate, I consider it unlikely.

Unless things change dramatically, I will be voting for the Legate of Tol Gaurhoth toDay.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by me

Clearly, we do have a Cobbler or some such thing. The bad news (apart from the loss of our Ranger) is that the current ratio of innocents to baddies is less that 3:1. The good news is that we are more likely to lynch a baddie toDay.

Actually, on reflection, the good news is not that great. Potentially, five of the votes cast toDay (out of a maximum of thirteen) will be cast with malign intent. That's quite worrying, particularly if any non-voters are innocent, although it should make the voting analysis toMorrow interesting.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by SPM

Well, you seemed to have no qualms about turning against a Boro who was clearly unlikely to be able to return to defend himself.

Indeed. Sorry, Esspiem...

I'm more and more sure of your innocence. We are probably the two fighting loud guys.

Though I am beginning to be a little paranoid on Anguirel (and why SPM was always so sure of his innocence. (Haha! )). Every time I reread Ang's posts I become scared of him, but every time somebody says that they trust him, I begin to feel stupid.
His posts just make so little sense to me... Really! Especially this:

Vote analyses can be helpful resourses, but on this occasion I think more helpful still is who people thought about voting for before Volo's revelation, which completely changed the landscape.

Could you please explain more about Why?

I predict that we lose if Legate is lynched toDay as SPM will be under constant firing toMorrow (or however you werewolfarise the word).


EDIT: Xd with Di and SPM

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Diamond

Wait, I don't understand. First you said my vote was weird and then you say it "does speak for me"? By that I assume you meant it speaks well for me? I'm a little confused as to what you actually are saying about me here.

Yeah, I was writing that as the thought went past.

You feel so innocent that the paranoid part of me wants to lynch you just to be on the safe side...

If you'd voted Legate (and you had the potentiality to doing that even when Wolf, because of your preveous suspicions.) I'd be very sure that you are a Wolf, but since you didn't I'm not sure, I'm not sure...

[Volo]

Continuing on Diamond:

While reading this I somehow thought that I made a mistake about you, Di, but your post crossed that feeling.

Sorry, I don't really know what it is, but it made my hair stand up. Maybe because Valier was a very successful wolf once...


I think I'll go out to have a breath for a while.

[Diamond18]

Disclaimer: I've been awake for the past 28 hours so this will probably be incoherent and rambling, with a dash of delusional thinking....

It's unfortunate that Boro was innocent, but actually I stand by my reason for voting him as I do not find Legate suspicious enough to lynch, and at the time he had been participating far more than Boro, so would be the worse loss. Well, now Legate is gone all day and will be silent, but I was going by the past posting patterns.

The third one is harder, but I think it's Diamond. I've found her the suspiciously innocentish person here and her vote looks wierd. Though not wierd enough to say for sure. If she had suspected Rune she would have been far more suspicious with this figure. Because she just couldn't have voted Rune and caused a double lynch. And now that she didn't vote for Legate but even saved him, does speak for her. But I'm not lowering my guard!

Wait, I don't understand. First you said my vote was weird and then you say it "does speak for me"? By that I assume you meant it speaks well for me? I'm a little confused as to what you actually are saying about me here.

As far as Rune, I wasn't paying that much attention to him, I think at the time I finished my read through Boro and Legate were tied which made them the only two players who, I suppose, really seemed to matter at the moment.

Eugh. I don't have much time so I won't really waste it on self defense, especially as I'm not sure what you're getting at.

I haven't had time to analyse everyone this game and so I'm playing a somewhat Valier-esque "gut feeling" sort of thing with whom I find suspicious.

Right now my spidey-sense is tingling most in Mac's direction... something about his sureness that Boro would be innocent seems too sure.

SPM seems very innocent to me, which maybe ought to be worrisome in itself as I usually suspect him, but I felt this way last game and he was innocent after all... so I'm not going to worry over him too much for the time being.

There are others players who have been way too quiet to get a read on (I know I'm one of them) and I'm tempted to vote for them just to clear up the view, so to speak. Perhaps I ought to start with myself. But I'm not Nilpish quite yet.

Sigh. I really have to go now. I'm about to be physically ill with sleep deprevation and I have to show up at work again in 6 hours, so it's high time I passed out. It would take a miracle for me to make it online again before Day end, so I'm going to go with my spidey-sense on this one:

+ + Mac