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Old 05-17-2007, 04:55 AM   #1
Legate of Amon Lanc
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Turn 180°

I have done a little Anguirelysis and I am announcing hereby that I am dropping all my earlier accuses. Should I checked him yesterday (or over the Night), this might have saved some confusion, but what happened, happened. There were not his toDay's posts at that time yet, anyway, and they add their own, quite a large bit, to cause me drop my suspicions.

Now when I already was in it, for peace of mind I started checking other people:

Mac. His two first posts are quite harsh, but we got past it before. In his third post, he even explains it, and I feel it quite innocentish. The post itself looks very good.

Then he does say some things on me, which could be from an innocent's point of view, because he doesn't seem to be attempting to raise things against me, rather he's (if I exaggerate it, of course he is not actually) defending me, or calming it down. Of course, there was pretty much suspicion on me at that time already, so if I ended lynched innocent, then this would serve Mac as good cover "this innocent's blood is not on my hands". But again, that's probably overcombinating it.

Then he voted for Six, which I sort of didn't like, as I said earlier. Beside SpM's, as I mentioned somewhere before (and Volo's, but he is innocent, or so I believe), this was another not much nice vote for Six. He also tied him with Ang in the lead (which was not a problem at that time yet, and also he later said he could change his vote to me if necessary). Today, he just posted that analysis about Mithalwen. Hey, I didn't catch the moment where he said he suspected her? The only moment he mentioned her was in the first post where he mentioned her at the same point as me, and then he was responding to her. Or did I forget anything?
If any of Mac's post, this would be giving bad feeling to me, but that's just because, as some people who played with me already know, I don't like and a priori am suspicious on people who post summaries of any kind, because it's an easy job a wolf has to do anyway, and then he can just post it, adding some imagined stuff concerning him and his comrades... But that's in no way point for accusing, and you can't actually get much from it unless it contradicts anything.

So in general: Mac seems more or less okay. Others coming shortly. Maybe.
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Old 05-17-2007, 05:15 AM   #2
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Which leaves Mac’s vote. This was effectively the one which pushed Sixth into pole position as the “not Anguirel” candidate, rather than Legate. As such, I regard it as the most suspicious of the Sixth votes.
Sauce, you are aware that Legate had a total of zero votes when I voted Six? I was suspicious of Six, I wanted Ang to live. It was a no-brain vote for me, especially with retractions available.

I like Volo's point on Aganzir and I agree with Saucepan's points on Legate and Rune. I don't want to repeat what has already been said.

I think I will have a closer look at Kath once she has posted more. That vibe that Boro calls innocent doesn't leave me with an innocent feeling, but there is very little for me to go on yet.

I find it a tiny bit strange that Boro is suspicious because of Legate's double lynch comments, while he finds Brinniel, who made similar comments, innocent. I mean, I share his overall judgement of the two, but still it's a little bit weird. Where do you see the difference, Boro? You have not told.

Legate, do you intend to manufacture a new wolvish connection between villagers every second post now until a couple of innocents bite on one? Because that is what your behaviour is looking like to me.

edit: hit 'post' on accident. The above is only a draft...
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Old 05-17-2007, 05:19 AM   #3
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My last post was crossed with a few of Legate. I was about to change my joking tone in the last line. I'm sorry.
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Old 05-17-2007, 05:34 AM   #4
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What I really was about to say about Legate (now that I read his post about me):


Though I certainly like him not being suspicious of me, there is some kind of "appeasing" tone within his post about me. I'm not sure what to think of it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Of course, there was pretty much suspicion on me at that time already, so if I ended lynched innocent, then this would serve Mac as good cover "this innocent's blood is not on my hands". But again, that's probably overcombinating it.
"This innocent's blood is not on my hands"?
But I said that I was willing to vote for you in a later post. I definitely was suspicious of you when I wrote my short analysis. It was your reaction to it that made it cease the significant small bit.

Why do you suddenly feel like you're overcombinating.


I understand that you were sure about Six's innocence and I don't think, unlike others, that it is a suspicious thing. What I don't understand is that you don't understand how others were able to think he's not innocent.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Hey, I didn't catch the moment where he said he suspected her?
Quote:
Originally Posted by me
My main suspects right now are Legate and Six, followed by Mith, followed by, well, pretty much everybody...
Besides, my last post about Mith was not mere summary...
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Old 05-17-2007, 06:00 AM   #5
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My time toDay is very limited.

Why is everyone speculating about lovers? I mean, of course we can't rule out the possibility, but why is half of the village assuming there is a lover couple. Makes me wonder if some furry people or cobblers are trying to cause confusion...

All in all, we shouldn't speculate too much about the roles - actually I can hardly believe how well we've avoided it. (Until this post of mine... ) As long as we have no role-clues from the narrations, there is little sense in speculating them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
But Volo, does anything change for you once somebody tries to kill you? Will you still be allowed to vote, for example.
While this is a good question and it's important to know these things, this question of Mac's just doesn't sit right with me... I mean, he sounds all too much like a wolfie trying to fish out (=get) information.

I agree Mith was probably killed because of most people considering her innocent and for leaving no tracks and I think she might have been a nice kill for the wolvsies also because she is (well, like quite many of us here...) a good player and thus a threat to the baddies if she's innocent.

I'd love to see Durelin around. Where is she? Other than this ww-game, she has an RPG soon to start here in BD so I think she must have had some RL issues if she's not been online...

Volo, I don't think Aganzir is any different from her last game - though that does not prove her innocent, certainly not.

I can see why you're all after Legate, but I have to disagree and consider him innocent-ish. While he certainly has done suspicious-ish things, his almost furious defense of himself and his manner speak for his innocence. I mean, this wizard-creature doesn't resemble the wolf-Legates I've seen. Wolf-Legate is - according to my experiences - far more careful and avoids argument with other villagers. That image doesn't quite fit the current Legate. I think he tends to be more rash when innocent, which would speak for his innocence in this game. I doubt I will vote him toDay at least.

I will vote very soon and to be honest I have no clue who I will vote. Everybody (except the non-contributors) has made the impression of being more on the innocent side (see, I'm probably easily fooled... ). My only yesterday's suspect is dead and innocent. (Well, except Legate who I suspected a little and who I suspect less and less when I see more posts of his.) I will probably vote either some non-contributor who looks active enough to stay alive or then Mac (for his comment and the tone of his recent posts has been a little worrying)...
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Old 05-17-2007, 06:08 AM   #6
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++xyzzy

It seems like he will make a few, non-contributing posts per day and stay alive and just be dead weight. And if he's a wolf, it's a disaster since we'll never be able to catch him by normal means.

I think we should eliminate him but I have the bad feeling my campaign won't get much support. *sigh* Nevertheless, voting xyzzy seems the best option for me toDay.

I don't want to Mac because my reasons to suspect him are quite flimsy. If I had more time to go through his posts, I could vote him if I found him suspicious. But it would be stupid to vote a helpful and intelligent player on such feeble grounds.

But now I have to go. Bye.
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Old 05-17-2007, 06:38 AM   #7
Legate of Amon Lanc
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
I can see why you're all after Legate, but I have to disagree and consider him innocent-ish. While he certainly has done suspicious-ish things, his almost furious defense of himself and his manner speak for his innocence. I mean, this wizard-creature doesn't resemble the wolf-Legates I've seen. Wolf-Legate is - according to my experiences - far more careful and avoids argument with other villagers. That image doesn't quite fit the current Legate.
You know what? I love you!

Now to the grave issues at hand. About Aganzir, I think that "widowhood" thing is not signifying anything, but this could:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir
Of course, she was the first to vote for Legate etc., but I can make of that out just as much as I can of too many other things, which is nothing.
It's the type of ambivalent, half-ended sentence the Wolves do. "You know, maybe she was killed by Legate because he wanted to get rid of her... but I didn't say this!"
I originally wanted to wait until Aganzir herself makes some other things that could classify her as wolf, but since it was already brought up, I think her a very likely candidate.
Concerning the "he-she" thing, while I knew from somewhere before in my unconscious mind Aganzir is she, I didn't think about it now and considering Ang not knowing her before, the "he" mistake does not seem as an attempt of a trick, and if it were, not a good base for suspicion, because it really can be a mistake. (it's probably the name and the avatar, both. Oh! And I know what else - there is Shasta, who is actually he, which is the counter to Aganzir.) But in general: nothing basing on this, I think that's quite feeble as an evidence.
Personally I don't see anything wrong on posting the widowhood joke and would never have thought of it being a sign of wolvery. The more alarming now seems to me Aganzir's statement "were I a wolf, I'd never post it". Why? And she's saying it after she was suspected on basis of it. This seems fishy. However, seeing that Volo drops his suspicion, I don't know if digging in that matter has any perspective of being important any more now.

I'll be here yet surely, but I'm going to take a little "break" (going to purchase a new bike, seeing what Volo said here, it's not about just me)... so, see ya later. Later? Later?!? Yes, when you also have the Keys of Barad-dûr itself, I suppose?! And the crowns of seven kings, and the rods of the Five Wizards... *walks off, muttering*
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Old 05-17-2007, 07:26 AM   #8
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My talking about irrelevant stuff is mostly because I am trying to hide the fact that I do not have any good suspicions, I am constantly hoping that the next time I read through some post that something will jump into mind.

Now onto more irrelevant stuff: Dubble Lynchings

Dubble lyncings are not only for the benifit of wolves! That is how it has been previously because villagers have not had a clue about what they where doing at the time of the dubble lynchings. Technicaly it must mean there is a greater chance getting a wolf, of course it also could be devistating if one lynches purely innocents.

I am just saying that dubble lynching is a tool, a very dangerous tool and it should not be used lightly. There is of course no sense in having a random dubble lynch based on confusion, but I can imagine situations where it might be a risk worth taking.

btw the reason for this post is that I find it wrong when things are branded as pure evil, unless it is the wolves of course.

I just found out that works start earlier today which means I will have to vote very soon. . .
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Old 05-17-2007, 07:54 AM   #9
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Gather round, my friends. I have a New Theory.

Vote analyses can be helpful resourses, but on this occasion I think more helpful still is who people thought about voting for before Volo's revelation, which completely changed the landscape.

As well as myself, Sixth, and Saruman, (in the event the main candidates), before Tollers revealed himself Volo and Macalaure were seriously considered.

Of these two, evidently the more intriguing case is Volo, because if we believe his claim (and I do, you couldn't make up a role like that...) he's a proven innocent.

Prominent in laying into Volo were myself, Kath, Brinniel and Rune.

I was probably the most vehement, and cast the first stone. However, at least that means I can't be accused of piggy-backing...

Kath followed with a fairly condemnatory description of Volo as a bit vague and contentless. However, she did not vote for him (instead opting for Rune) and we cross-posted, so this opinion was not influenced by my diatribe. Nothing that suspicious here.

Sauce (I've just noticed) felt Volo's revenge vote against me had "pinged his radar somewhat". This is a bit more suspect, especially as Sauce was proceeding with a good deal of caution, avoiding "accusations of palliness" in a disclaimer. But the motive was sensible.

Rune now leapt in, stuck in his own dagger and voted for Volo. This is getting pretty suspicious by now; he knew this vote might well have heavyweight backing with Sauce's vote apparently pending.

And then Brinniel says, fairly out of the blue,

"Suddenly, Volo has been moved to the top of my suspect list."

Suddenly is generally a bad sign as words go. I think either Rune or Brinniel is guilty, and personally I favour Brinniel because she is escaping suspicion so effectively - Legate and Boro for instance have both said they think she's convincingly innocent.

So my first vote, at least, goes to ++BRINNIEL, and if you see where it's coming from, I beg you to join this slightly left-of-field case...

If further evidence is desired, look at Brinn's slightly panicky inquisitiveness about the effects of Volo's role.
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