WW XXXIII - Other Minds and Hands

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Kath

Can anyone tell me why lynching Sauce toDay is a bad idea?

Yes, I can! I am …

… the true Seer!

The remaining Wolves are Mac, Volo and Legate!

(*Joke*)

So, who to believe? It's rather a no brainer for me.

I said yesterDay that I thought one of Rune or Volo was lying. Rune was obviously telling the truth, so I had already concluded that Volo’s claim was probably false. Two Rangers plus a Seer with two lives just seems very unbalanced to me. And all these sudden changes in his story are stretching the bounds of credibility. Looking back, I can see no reason why, if he was the true Seer, he (re-)revealed yesterDay. It followed Rune’s revelation and it was purportedly done to show why he distrusted Rune’s claim.

Originally Posted by Volo

I don't fully trust Rune as that role could have been easily invented, and I'll even prove why I don't think that there is a role like that.

But that’s no reason for a Seer to reveal, especially as Rune’s claim could be (and was) tested quite easily. It looks to me like either an attempt to discredit Rune’s claim that did not come off or an attempt to flush out the real Seer which did (or both). And what’s with these ex post facto edits? I can’t see what happened, and wouldn’t mind an explanation, but it looks mighty suspicious to me.

I also found Volo’s claim that Legate was innocent difficult to believe, and now comes his claim, based on his dream, that I am “sinister”, whereas I can assure you that I am innocent, if decidedly ordinary.

Mac’s claim looks entirely more credible to me. It was made in response to another Seer’s claim that he was a Wolf and the role that he describes looks much more in keeping with game balance. There’s also the fact that he has dreamed of me and accurately found me to be an ordo.

I am not at all surprised that Legate has accepted, and is supporting, Volo’s story, as I have had him pegged as a Wolf all along. He could do little else, since they are inextricably linked by Volo’s determined, even desperate, attempts to save him from the noose.

As for the others, well there is probably a Wolf among you, but I cannot understand why the rest of you are bying Volo's claim so easily.

I would suggest that we lynch Volo toDay and, when he is proven a Wolf, lynch the Legate of Tol Gaurhoth toMorrow.

++Volo

[Gil-Galad]

meh why not


i'm actually the seer, i've been pretending to play low so i can strike a balance

i did my rune attack to draw out some potential wolves...


yes i jokes, but i'm going to vote for Mac mainly because i am sure that the gifteds know of each other gifteds.... so mac wasting a dream on rune is well, a waste

++Macalaure

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Mac

Another idea: Since we are now without rangers, I am going to be dead this way or the other, so we could try a double lynching of me and Volo. I would be ready to sacrifice myself for it, since I can't tell you my next dream anyway.

Originally Posted by Kath

We should NOT lynch Volo and Mac. Mac is doing the put-upon innocent routine right now and whether it's real or not lynching the both of them is just stupid. One of them is our Seer, a double lynch is ridiculous as it will kill both of them. Mac right off and Volo by the end of the Night.

Actually, it was a rather sensible suggestion as, while any doubt still remains, it is the only way of ensuring that we are one Wolf (or at least the Cobbler) down toMorrow. The fact that Mac suggested it, and is willing to die to see a baddie killed, whereas Volo has made no such suggestion, merely reinforces my view.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Gil

yes i jokes, but i'm going to vote for Mac mainly because i am sure that the gifteds know of each other gifteds.... so mac wasting a dream on rune is well, a waste

Actually, Rune made it clear that he did not know of Lommy's identity until he spied on her, which was unfortunately the Night that she died.

Good grief! Apart from one Wolf and one Cobbler, you are all allowing Volo and Legate to play you for fools ...

[Diamond18]

Eugh, curse you SPM for being so persuasive... I think I'm back to being confused about our two "seers." I can see both scenarios being possible. I feel like sticking to Mac, but I'll sleep on it. Hopefully I can get online tomorrow at least an hour before the deadline.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

So then....

Volo: Mac (Mac-1)
Mac: Volo (Mac-1, Volo-1)
Legate: Mac (Mac-2, Volo-1)
Aganzir: Mac (Mac-3, Volo-1)
Kath: Mac (Mac-4, Volo-1)
Anguirel: Kath (Mac-4, Volo-1, Kath-1)
Diamond: Mac (Mac-5, Volo-1, Kath-1)
Sauce: Volo (Mac-5, Volo-2, Kath-1)
Gil: Mac (Mac-6, Volo-2, Kath-1)
Shasta: Volo (Mac-6, Volo-3, Kath-1)

So Mac's definately in the lead.

If we lynch Mac, and he's lying, then Volo must be the Seer, and the wolves will attack him at night, and we lose our Seer (unless he's lying about the two lives)
If we lynch Volo, and he's lying, then Mac must be the Seer, and the wolves will attack him at night, and we lose our Seer.
If we lynch Mac, and he's not lying, then Volo's a wolf; we lynch him tomorrow, but we lose our seer.
If we lynch Volo, and he's not lying, then the wolves kill him off at night, and we lynch Mac tomorrow, but we lose our seer.

If we double-lynch Volo and Mac, then we bag a wolf either way, and the Seer's no loss, as we would have lost him anyway... I'll side with Ang and say that I don't see anything wrong with that.

Of course, the fact that Volo's lied twice on-thread has put me on my guard, no matter how much he sugarcoated it.

++Volo

Of course, I'll be on before the deadline, ready and willing to retract my vote if need be.

Oh, I guess I need to put my own vote in the tally. xD

[Aganzir]

Everybody has voted, and this is looking pretty bad.

Three sure innocents (Volo, Legate, me) + most probably innocent Gil are voting for Mac. Then there are Kath & Di, and at least one of them (possibly both) are wolves.
That's not enough to kill Mac!

Only two last minute retractions are needed, and Volo will be an easy target for the wolves next Night.

Non-Mac voters are Mac (Volo), Ang (Kath), Sauce (Volo), Shasta (Volo). If any of you is innocent, I suggest retracting for Mac.

Of course this vote of Shasta makes him look quite bad now, and I hope this means that either Kath or Di is innocent. Of course it's no use to rely on that.

I must go, I'll be back in 6 hours or something.

edit: corrected a name

[Volo]

I've been thinking on the Days to follow and brought a chart of possibilities.

I have very little time right now, but in about 4 hours I'll explain.

Let's just say that I think of it very probable that Shasta and Kath (or maybe Diamond are Wolves.

If that is the case, I'l trust that both of the two ladies won't change their vote to me, especially as that will condemn them to death in the following Days.

Ang are you ready to move your vote to Mac if needed?


I don't think that there is too much fear of me being lynched as that would reaveal the Wolves.

[The Saucepan Man]

Look at it this way.

We have two competing Seer claims.

One is the latest (in my view, barely credible) offering in a series of convoluted revelations which have adapted in response to changing circumstances and was entirely unprovoked.

The other is a single, straightforward claim which was made with good reason.

Which would you believe?

I would also note that Legate and Aganzir, who have been at the forefront of promoting Volo’s claim, also happen to be the two villagers that Volo has declared innocent. Legate is clearly a Wolf. It would be risky for Volo to claim both of his remaining companions as innocent, although not beyond the bounds of credibility, given the overly obvious nature of the move. However, I can understand why an innocent who has been declared innocent by a false Seer would support the claim. It is also possible that Volo is the Cobbler and was uncertain of the identities of those he claimed innocent when he made the claim.

I would urge those innocent villagers who have voted for Mac to reconsider their position in light of the above. I would prefer to see Volo lynched, but a double lynch of the two of them would be a reasonable outcome if you consider there to be any doubt, as it will at least ensure that a baddie (in my view a Wolf) is lynched, rather than just an innocent. Either way, we will lose the Seer, as I simply do not believe that, with two Gifteds able to protect him, the Seer would have been given two lives.