WW XXXIII - Other Minds and Hands

[Volo]

I've been thinking on the Days to follow and brought a chart of possibilities.

I have very little time right now, but in about 4 hours I'll explain.

Let's just say that I think of it very probable that Shasta and Kath (or maybe Diamond are Wolves.

If that is the case, I'l trust that both of the two ladies won't change their vote to me, especially as that will condemn them to death in the following Days.

Ang are you ready to move your vote to Mac if needed?


I don't think that there is too much fear of me being lynched as that would reaveal the Wolves.

[Macalaure]

Alright. Even though I feel like preaching to walls I will give it one more try.


Volo is evil, whether wolf or cobbler I don't know.

I suspected Aganzir the past days, but her behaviour today looks very innocentish, albeit misguided. For the sake of the village, you should reconsider the premises upon which you argue.

Kath seems like the only one who actually tries to see both sides of the current dilemma. Unfortunately, she reached the wrong conclusion.

Legate is surely a wolf. He is simply too secure about the whole situation and I also trust the senses of innocent Saucepan Man.

I know Ang to be innocent and because of it the more I am puzzled by his behaviour. I don't like his jokes about my "acting" and his vote for Kath, I'm afraid, makes no sense.

I don't like the fence-sitting of Diamond. I suspected her before and so I still do.

The Saucepan Man is innocent, and even if I didn't already know that, I would assume it now, because apart from Kath he is the only one who actually makes up his mind, even though he could simply have said: "I know I'm innocent, therefore Volo must be evil."

Gil I thought evil before and I still do so. He is also far more sinister than even the old Gil ever was.

I'm not sure about Shasta, but his arguments make sense to me. Though it's possible that his vote is wolf-on-wolf, I doubt it.


Baddies: Volo, Legate, Gil

Possible fourth baddie: Diamond

Probably innocent: Shasta, Kath, Aganzir

Known Innocents: Ang, SPM

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Shasta! If you are innocent, you'll vote Mac.

Originally Posted by SpM

Actually, it was a rather sensible suggestion as, while any doubt still remains, it is the only way of ensuring that we are one Wolf (or at least the Cobbler) down toMorrow. The fact that Mac suggested it, and is willing to die to see a baddie killed, whereas Volo has made no such suggestion, merely reinforces my view.

Because this is also way of proving that not only a Wolf, but also a way of ensuring the Seer is definitely down toMorrow! If Mac were the Seer, he'd be down, killed by wolves at night. But don't think that, if we lynched Volo, the wolves would kill Mac! Of course not - they'll get Volo's second life.

Whatever, it seems highly improbable now that Volo could get more votes than Mac. But who are innocent, should vote Mac, and certainly not Volo.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Volo

I don't think that there is too much fear of me being lynched as that would reaveal the Wolves.

Originally Posted by Legate

Shasta! If you are innocent, you'll vote Mac.

Wolfishness! Wolfishness! The audacity of it! Who other than the Wolves would seek to pressurise innocent villagers into voting for an innocent, a Seer no less, for fear of being lynched themselves?

I ask people to consider the evidence and vote in the interests of the village, not out of fear.

Originally Posted by Legate

But don't think that, if we lynched Volo, the wolves would kill Mac! Of course not - they'll get Volo's second life.

As I have explained, that "second life" claim is one of the reasons why I am exceedingly dubious (to say the least) of Volo's claim.

[Volo]

Day4

3 Wolves
1 Cobbler
1 Medium
5 Innocents

7 vs 3

Sure:

4 aWps (anti-Wolf-power, one being a vote strategy confusing Cobbler)
1 Wolf

Volo - The Medium
Aganzir - Innocent
Legate - Innocent

SpM - Cobbler

Mac - Wolf

Unsure:

2 Wolves
3 Innocents

Kath Wolf/Innocent
Diamond Wolf/Innocent
Shasta - Wolf

Gil-Galad - Innocent
Anguirel - Innocent


Day5

2 Wolves
1 Cobbler
1 Medium
4/5 Innocents

6/7 vs 2

Sure:

3/4 aWps (anti-Wolf-power, one being a vote strategy confusing Cobbler)
1 ? (My dream next Night)

Volo - The Medium

(One of the two might be dead, probably Legate)
Aganzir - Innocent
Legate - Innocent

SpM - Cobbler

Unsure:

2 Wolves
3 Innocents

Kath Wolf/Innocent
Diamond Wolf/Innocent
Shasta - Wolf

Gil-Galad - Innocent
Anguirel - Innocent


Day6

1/2 Wolves
1 Cobbler
0/1 Medium
3/4/5 Innocents

5 vs 2, or 6 vs 1

Sure:

2/3 aWps (anti-Wolf-power, one being a vote strategy confusing Cobbler)
2 ?

(Might be dead)
Volo - The Medium

(One or two might be dead)
Aganzir - Innocent
Legate - Innocent

SpM - Cobbler

Unsure:

1/2 Wolves
2/3 Innocents

Kath Wolf/Innocent
Diamond Wolf/Innocent
Shasta - Wolf

Gil-Galad - Innocent
Anguirel - Innocent


The point:

This looks better on paper...

I'm saying that SPM will cause the votes to go against us. On Day 6 this might be critical if the Wolves kill two Innocents (Legate and Aganzir) and we won't catch a Wolf on Day 5.
It would cause the situation to be such that we have:

- The Medium
- The Cobbler
- Two Wolves
- Two Ordos

And this is the situation we will lose in whatever my dreams!!

So we have to catch a Wolf (or kill SPM) on Day 5 or then the Wolves should try killing me next Night or the Night after.



But back to the roles:

I think Rikae would want to make a balanced game and that the roles aren't 100% randomed. It might also be probable that she didn't give people the roles they have very often or in the preveous games.

That being the case this figure is the most probable:

Gifteds:

Lommy - Ranger/Assassin (dead)
An old timer that hasn't been a Ranger for a long long time.
Rune - Ranger/Spy (dead)
Same as Lommy.
Volo - Medium
A relative newbie that has never before been Seer.

Wolves (and Cobbler):

SPM - Cobbler
One of the oldest timers.
Brinniel - Wolf (dead)
A relative newbie that has never before been Wolf.
Mac - Wolf
An old timer that hasn't been a Wolf for a long time.
Shasta - Wolf (unknown otherwise)
A newbie that has never before been Wolf.
Kath - Wolf (unknown otherwise)
An old timer that hasn't been a Wolf for a long time.

Innocents

Anguirel
If he was instead of Kath as the Wolf, the teams wouldn't be balanced.
Diamond
Still debatable. She might be the Wolf, but given that she had a special role in the preveous game, I think that it's more probable that Kath is the Wolf.
Gil-Galad
Wolf in the preveous game.
Legate
Wolf in the preveous game.
Aganzir
If she was instead of Kath as the Wolf, the teams wouldn't be balanced.

The preveous conclution is based only on the idea that Rikae didn't random the roles and pretty much nothing else, but it does seem to back up the situation of the game otherwise.


Yeah, I really use my history lessons wisely...

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Volo

But back to the roles:

I think Rikae would want to make a balanced game and that the roles aren't 100% randomed. It might also be probable that she didn't give people the roles they have very often or in the preveous games.

I don't like this sort of argument. I don't like it at all. It's the worst kind of meta and vague speculative reasoning I have ever seen. Not only do we not know how Rikae chose her roles, of course, but discussing it is simply wrong. It might even lead to the right conclusion in the end, but it shouldn't be part of in-game arguments, and as far as I remember it has never been so far in past games.


And what's even worse, some of your conclusions are simply wrong, and you know it:

Lommy - Ranger/Assassin (dead)
An old timer that hasn't been a Ranger for a long long time.

The role of the assassin is close to the role of the hunter, and Lommy has been one recently.

Volo - Medium
A relative newbie that has never before been Seer.

You're too humble, Volo.

SPM - Cobbler
One of the oldest timers.

Indeed, and probably the one with the best cobbler-reputation of all. You're contradicting yourself.

Anguirel
If he was instead of Kath as the Wolf, the teams wouldn't be balance.

Care to explain?

Diamond
Still debatable. She might be the Wolf, but given that she had a special role in the preveous game, I think that it's more probable that Kath is the Wolf.

This is purest speculation.

Aganzir
If she was instead of Kath as the Wolf, the teams wouldn't be balanced.

See Anguirel.


edit: and what does "makes little sense, but important!!" mean?

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, if the last two posts don't convince anyone who is telling the truth and who is not, I don't know what will. Pure speculation as to who might have been allocated what roles based on recent history sure ain't gonna help the village. And pure speculation based on past history which has been manipulated to the suit said speculator's own ends strongly smacks of Cobbleresque or lupine activity to my mind.

What's the matter Volo? Are you concerned that the facade of "evidence" that you started the Day with might be beginning to crumble under serious challenge?

Originally Posted by Volo

I think Rikae would want to make a balanced game ...

I do agree with this though. And a multi-lived Seer with double protection sure doesn't look balanced to me.

One further point occured to me. In the highly unlikely event that, contrary to all the evidence, Volo is telling the truth (and has misinterpreted the dream about me, which does after all refer to Samwise), lynching him will prevent a further innocent death toNight. Whereas, if Mac is telling the truth, lynching him will result in the death of two innocents before the morning. Either way we lose our Seer, but we will at least have two known innocents rather than one come the morning, if we lynch Volo and are wrong. In those circumstances, and given the evidence now accumlated, I am confident that we can defeat the Wolves, even without our Seer.

Originally Posted by Mac

Indeed, and probably the one with the best cobbler-reputation of all.

You are too kind, but I would argue that the honour still lies with TORE.