Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Well, except the 1st one (which is why I grouped you and Groin in the same statement.) Your 'explanation' of Groin's admin thread post can be construed as some sort of barrier-building . . .

Eh?

Don't say 'eh?' There's nothing cute about an older guy saying 'eh?'

Shush.

[Thinlómien]

I can't possibly understand how yesterday's voting became such a disaster. Really, guys, you messed it all up, (obviously because I wasn't there to make sense. ) I still think lynching Kitanna was a stupid idea. Now what kind of playing is that, killing someone who is already dead? Hardly helps us in wolf or cobbler hunting. With the same logic, we can all abstain from voting on Day1 next game if we have no strong suspicions. Really, that was pretty pathetic, as were all the throwaway votes (including mine, it seems *sigh*) and all the no-voting. I can almost concretely hear the laugh of the wolves and the cobblers. (And who was it that said cobblers can't cause confusion? I blame them - at least partly - for that horrible mess yesterDay.) Okay, rant over. But late yesterDay really made everybody look pretty cobblerish to me because you were (almost?) all acting so sillily. Whatever, I guess we can't change the past, but if someone is going to drop out again, I swear I'm going to make sure we don't act as stupidly as we did yesterDay.

Now that I've got that off my heart, I can concentrate on other issues, like why Lalaith was killed or responding earlier points... Post coming soonish, hopefully.

[Thinlómien]

Q: Why was Lalaith killed?
A: No idea.



No reason stands out to me as for why she's dead. If we had a ranger, I would be tempted to say she was killed just to avoid the ranger. I mean, her death was pretty unexpected, at least to me. Maybe it was meant just to baffle us? And of course, the wolves might have been scared of her quick wits and killed her. Or then, Gwath or tp might have been worried about her going after them in future and eliminated a dangerous foe. And no one really suspected her. But is any of these reason enough to kill her? I don't know, I just have a feeling that it's a bit far-fetched. The obvious seer-explanation could be it, but I don't think her posts point to any seerish knowledge on anybody. So was it, like someone said, just general seerishness in the eyes of the wolves, or - like someone else said - simply the fact that she didn't look too cobblerish? I could kind of agree with that last part, for at least in my opinion she was one of the few people who didn't look cobblerish yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Fea

There are no criminals until after the first day is over. First day posts, therefore, hold no evidence of crime.

I think we've debated about this before, but I must say I disagree. The wolves know they're bad and sinful etc, so that might make them act guiltily. Also, they might do lots of things normal innocents are not so enthusiastic about - like trying to make friends, getting gifted-looking people lynched or give advice to each other, just to give a few examples. Oh, and they also have their packmateness to hide from the others. So I think there is plenty of evidence even without a wolf kill.

Going back to the Kitanna lynch, I have come to a rather unhelpful conclusion. The wolves might have gone along the Kitanna lynch to go with the flow and please others. The wolves might have protested against it to get an extra death. The wolves might have only interfered later and made a throwaway vote to avoid attention the following day. The wolves might have had timetable or other problems and not voted at all. So, we can't really conclude anything like "there must be a wolf among those who protested against lynching Kit" but rather, we have to examine individual behaviour and manner. Which means yesterDay's lynch gives us as much to go as any Day1 lynches, or actually less, because so many were absent and the debate was mostly dominated by one issue.

Originally Posted by Shasta

We lost two innocents yesterday. Had we lynched someone OTHER than Kitanna, it would have been three. I'm interested to hear just why it's a bad thing that we have one more person alive than we would have had.

We lost two innocents yesterDay? No, we didn't, unless you include the Night kill... Like Form, I really wonder how can you know we would have lynched an innocent. We would have had a 33,33333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333 % chance to lynch a baddie (and you silly people didn't take it. Argh. Oh, I guess I promised no to rant about it. )

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Actually, tp, I was wondering myself yesterDay whether Lalaith might be the Seer (hiding behind accusations of cobbler-ism), so I don't think it's THAT far-fetched.

I'm not sure if it would be wise of the seer to do so. She needs to leave the villagers a message of a found wolf, and in a game with four cobblers messing around it would be quite silly to mask suspicion towards the wolf as a suspicion of cobblerism.


edit: xed with tp and Nerwie

[the phantom]

Form impersonating a Cobbler? I doubt it. Not his style. I'm of sure of him as I am of anyone.

There are a couple of other people that I'm almost certain aren't Ordos, but I'm not sure what they are, and in case they're good I don't want to point them out.

I wish there were more people around right now. But since there's not I'm going to go ahead and go to bed and wake up ready to chat away.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Form impersonating a Cobbler? I doubt it. Not his style. I'm of sure of him as I am of anyone.

I doubt it too. He could be a wolf trying to double-bluff us into not lynching him... but in that case he'd be exposed toMorrow (since he's begging the assassin to go after him toNight).

But... if he's a cobbler does his attack on the phantom mean he thinks tp is innocent... or is he trying to save someone he thinks is an endangered wolf, by launching an obviously dodgy attack on him?

This is rushed because I have to go now. I shall be back in about five hours.

[the phantom]

Ah, my bed feels extra comfy tonight. But one more post before I set the computer on the floor and shut the eyes.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But... if he's a cobbler does his attack on the phantom mean he thinks tp is innocent... or is he trying to save someone he thinks is an endangered wolf, by launching an obviously dodgy attack on him?

I think you may have latched onto something with that second point. Reading things over I'm thinking that's indeed what may be going on. But I don't want to elaborate on my reasoning too much right now. There's still something that I need to get my head around before I can be sure on which angle to come from.

There is a ploy going on here from someone but there are three possibilities for why it's being done and if I guess wrong out loud I might screw things up for everyone.

I'm also debating what to do about Form. On one hand I'm convinced he's evil and needs to die, but on the other hand can we afford to use a lynch on a Cobbler when we already have an Assassin who can kill him tonight? Or since there are three more perhaps we should go ahead and take him out now?

Let's see here... we could try to find another baddie (likely a Cobbler since there's more of them than WWs) and leave Form for the Night, or we could take him now and allow the Assassin to try out someone new. The advantage of the second scenario over the first is of course that if the Assassin picks wrong nothing bad happens, where as if we pick wrong with the lynch an innocent dies.

Anyone want to calculate some odds or lay out some numbers and whatnot? I'm too tired. It's almost 3 here. Going to bed now.

*zzzzzz*

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

• 31 - some mathematical issue with Nogrod, her thoughts of DAY 1, tells a phantom not to leave all cobbler-hunting to the assassin, and urges post analysis for possible cobblerish behaviour. A rather helpful post for an IC one.
• 93 - thoughts on possible cobbler behaviour, possible wolvish behaviour, a phantom, and a reminder of Fea's schedule.
• 97 - agrees reservations about the voting for Kitanna idea of Mith.
• 98 - some issue with Gwathagor re his declaring Kitanna innocent.
• 106 - continuation of 98. Still suspicious of Gwath.
• 130 - question about the rules, gives Nog the benefit of the doubt, will watch and wait on Gwath, is most worried about a phantom, thinking him rather cobblerish.
• 140 - says that Nerwen's thought on a cobbler possibly being in the Kit-voters was an 'excellent point'.
• 143 - votes for the phantom.

She said things of substance, helpful stuff, telling the wolves that she was most likely not a cobbler. (And they were right.)

But seerlike? Hmm . . . her suspicion of Gwath and the interesting comment of trusting him beforehand does look like a seer's attempt to disguise a dream. Hmm . . .

Enedwaith, some posts about Lalaith:

• Durelin's 109
  

  Both Gwath and Lalaith bother me now. Gwath's done a good bit of back-and-forth-ing already (not sure how to explain...debating more than others in that he doesn't seem to drop things as quickly, maybe), and Lalaith's "fishy" comment feels like an easy stir up of things.[/b]

• a phantom's

On my second reskimming of the thread, Lalaith is making me squirm. I'll read a post of hers and know that she's innocent, and then the next post she makes me think she's up to something.

[Thinlómien]

I'm a bit baffled as to why Shasta voted tp that early as he still seems to have been able to be around. Is he a cobbler or is he just genuinely very annoyed with him? I know tp can be annoying and I've been tempted to vote him just because of that sometimes, but Shasta's behaviour looks quite rash. Cobbleristic, even.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

All the same, he is clearly trying very hard to look like a cobbler (and I thought tp was bad). The question (with both of them) is– are they cobblers, or cobbler-impersonators?

Cobbler impersonators? Sounds unlikely to me. There's no one who'd benefit from impersonating a cobbler. For ordos, there is simply no point. For gifteds or wolves, it's too dangerous. They don't want to get lycnhed. Actually, the only kind of person who'd really profit from impersonating a cobbler is someone who is rather heavily suspected from wolvery. He could try to save his skin by making people think he's just a cobbler. And as there have been no heavy suspicions this far, I don't think there are cobbler impersonators around. Or then either they are or I am stupid... Although, I wouldn't totally discount the possibility of someone like tp impersonating a cobbler just for fun...

But... if he's a cobbler does his attack on the phantom mean he thinks tp is innocent... or is he trying to save someone he thinks is an endangered wolf, by launching an obviously dodgy attack on him?

He could. But I have no idea who'd that be... I mean, no one has been suspected much toDay. And if we assume that Form is a cobbler, he could be thinking that tp is a wolf and launching an intentionally silly-looking attack on tp just to make suspecting tp look ridiculous... but that would be a bit risky, I guess. Or he could be thinking that tp is a fellow cobbler and hoping to put up a proper duel with him. (Even though, he said he won't necessarily be back, so that wouldn't make sense.)

Lastly, I'd really prefer to talk about someone else than the all-attention-grasping phantom of whom I have no proper picture yet (except that he's bossing people around and being self-centered and all that jazz), but I think it's definitely worth paying attention to that he's already received two votes toDay, and neither of them because he'd look wolvish. I smell cobblery here...

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Cobbler impersonators? Sounds unlikely to me. There's no one who'd benefit from impersonating a cobbler. For ordos, there is simply no point. For gifteds or wolves, it's too dangerous. They don't want to get lycnhed.
...

There is a point, ordos don't want to be lynched but they also don't want to be killed at night. As I said yesterday it is going to be a fine line between looking too innocent and being picked off by the wolves and looking too suspicious and being lynched. Therefore looking slightly cobblerish is a good tactic. Especially since they have nothing to fear from the assassin at night.