Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[A Little Green]

I'll have to vote very soon and I'm really at a loss. I think lynching Kit is a silly idea, so I'll vote for the one who strikes me as the most suspicious. (Of whom I'm not sure yet..)

Originally Posted by Mith

A wolf kill, a seers dream and an assasin's essai .. of course not all of these may be public... We are only prolonging this by a day if we lynch Kitanna if we would otherwise have had a perfect strike rate - but the maximum game length is shortened if we don't lynch Kitanna because there is one less person.

Yes - a wolf kill (at least I never can draw much conclusions on the first wolf kill) and possibly an assassin kill (that will rid us of one cobbler but provide us with little else). The seer dream will probably not affect toMorrow that much - and it's toMorrow I'm concerned about. True, the game will be "safer" if we go for Kit, but much more interesting and enjoyable to play if we don't play it safe but actually do something so that we really will have something to do and to analyse toMorrow.


EDIT: x-ed with Mith

[A Little Green]

Okay, I'll vote

++ Gwathie

because he gives me an overall fishy feeling. (Also, as I don't want us to waste one Day for lynching Kit, I'll vote for the one of my suspects I guess others might vote as well.)

Menelvagors, quark-stars, and pocket supernovas for sale! And the teddy bears.

Good night.

[the phantom]

Kudos, Mith, for bringing up the whole Kitanna thing. The different reactions people are having to it is going to give us some things to think about in the future.

Lommy for Nogrod (1)
Shasta for Kitanna (1)
Gwath for Kitanna (2)
Greenie for Gwath (1)

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'll have to vote very soon and I'm really at a loss. I think lynching Kit is a silly idea, so I'll vote for the one who strikes me as the most suspicious. (Of whom I'm not sure yet..)

You're at a loss? On the first Day? How extraordinary.

[Nerwen]

Just checking in. I'll be back when I've read through everything.

[the phantom]

Twelve votes to be cast in 25 minutes. Don't you love voting flurries?

I'm currently rereading everything. My mind hasn't changed much thus far.

Where's Kath?

[Durelin]

++Gwath

I don't like his attitude.

Woohoo, bandwagon!

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Durelin

++Gwath

I don't like his attitude.

Woohoo, bandwagon!

Cobbler.

[the phantom]

You are thinking along the same lines as I am, Brin. I can't possibly see Gwath or Shasta as a WW. Cobbler is a possibility, but I still hold to my gut feeling of trust for Gwath. I have no read on Shasta at all.

As far as Mith suggesting it, I doubt she's a WW. Possible Cobbler, but more than likely an Ordo.

Regarding Gwath pointing at Durelin as a Cobbler, I'm not so sure. I think perhaps Durelin's personality just appears Cobblerish.

On my second reskimming of the thread, Lalaith is making me squirm. I'll read a post of hers and know that she's innocent, and then the next post she makes me think she's up to something.

I wish Formendacil was around more. He still came across fishy looking to me.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Regarding Gwath pointing at Durelin as a Cobbler, I'm not so sure. I think perhaps Durelin's personality just appears Cobblerish.

That may be. I haven't played with her much, so I am not acquainted with her style.

[the phantom]

Hmm... Feeling a bit better about Nogrod now.

Currently, Mith feels to me rather sleek and well toned.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I think perhaps Durelin's personality just appears Cobblerish.

And yours doesn't?


Lately, it seemsto me that Greenie, namely A Little Green seems very suspicious. She suddenly comes in, flood posts, trying to converting everyone to share her mindset. Then she votes for Gwathie, which causes a mini Gwathwaggon. Seems like a band of wolves/cobblers or both mixed together. Or should I go Kitanna?

I'll go:

++A Little Green

edit: x-ed since Nogrod #149. Must have calculated an hour off. Sorry all! Please don't kill me, Oh mighty Big Mac!

[Nogrod]

Okay. Done reading...

Interesting but a bit disappointing as well. I do agree with tp that the reactions to this "lynch Kitanna" option are good things to read afterwards - and possibly even toDay. Let's not just make any common decisions for bandwagons are our worst option. I mean if we lynch someone with a great accord we have wasted the Day as totally as if we lynched Kit in the first place but very possibly lost one innocent more.

So more candidates to the scene now.

I'll bring you two who are this far the only one's that have ringed my bells of warning.

Lommy for her vote and less because of her general behaviour. There is something in her manner that I just don't think fits her as an innocent. But there is her vote I think she would not do - with those grounds - were she an innocent. But as a cobbler she might do just that.

I mean one thing you have kind of ignored talking about what the cobblers will do is that they will try to bring down those players they think are innocent. (Second thing not mentioned as such I think is that they try to steer the discussion into futile things thus derailing the hunt for the wolves) So let's look out for that as well.

Back to Lommy then. I know there is part of my judgement that has to do with her making a quite light vote on me in a situation where a few had already said they could vote for me. So it may also be partly a "natural" reaction to the unjust and ungrounded suspicion on me but at the same time it looks like a good bet for a cobbler indeed.

Another one I have some bad feelings right now is Groin. And if I think Lommy might be a cobbler I could see Groin rather as a wolf.

He has posted once saying this:

Originally Posted by Groin

Then it was that Groin, who had long been silent, spoke.

"Eonwe speaks wisely, as well as Gwathagor. We will not solve anything today but the best method to seek out the wolves. Though I fear only time will tell which two of us are the wolves. A slip of the tongue is all we need and many of us might be dead before then. Beware of those who would be loud and confuse you with too many thoughts!"

Now this looks like a plain effort of pleasing a few others. Not the least because Gwath had posted once before Groin's post saying only:

Originally Posted by Gwath

Good morning, everyone. All five of us...

First days are usually utter rubbish, in my opinion, so I'm liking the tone of constructive discussion that tp, nog, and eonwe have set thus far.

I have to go to the bank (it closes really soon), but I'll be back on later.

And that's what a silent wolf would do. Stay low, give some nice feelings to some others so that they would think nice of you...

But not much to go on I admit.

EDIT: X'd with all after Nerwen

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

True, the game will be "safer" if we go for Kit, but much more interesting and enjoyable to play if we don't play it safe but actually do something so that we really will have something to do and to analyse toMorrow. (Greenie)

I play to win, not to do interesting or enjoyable things.

Although the scarcity of future analysis from one quarter does irk me, we get the higher chance to be rid of two cobblers toNIGHT. So:

++Kitanna

Lommy, Gwath, and Durelin look somewhat entrail-covered to me, or at least ice cream-flavoured. Will observe them closer when I get back--if you let me live that long.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Lommy, Gwath, and Durelin look somewhat entrail-covered to me, or at least ice cream-flavoured. Will observe them closer when I get back--if you let me live that long.

I agree with two-thirds of your assessment, Nilpaurion.

[Lalaith]

The cobblers are, presumably, as afraid of lynching wolves by accident as ordos are of lynching gifteds. So yes, I think it's not unlikely there's a cobbler or so in that group

Excellent point, Nerwen.

[the phantom]

Current voting-

Lommy for Nogrod (1)
Shasta for Kitanna (1)
Gwath for Kitanna (2)
Greenie for Gwath (1)
Durelin for Gwath (2)
Mith for Kitanna (3)
Nilp for Kitanna (4)

[Lalaith]

Mith will probably block me on MSN for this, but

++The Phantom

I've little or no idea who is a wolf but I think he's a likely cobbler.

[Brinniel]

Looking back at the thread, I'm playing with the possibilities of either Lommy or Greenie being a wolf...based on what they said about the Kitanna issue. Based on votes, Greenie looks more suspicious because it seems Gwath became an easy target at that point.

Would voting for one of them be a wasted vote? Or should I put my vote to use and vote for Gwath who I still think is a cobbler. Except I worry about the scenario that I could be horribly wrong and he's simply an easy Day 1 lynch..

[Nogrod]

I'm ready to vote for Kitanna if the other choice is Gwath. With that choice I'd pick safe lynch for a possible lost of a player that could be of help later.

But looking for wolves I'd say Groin as he fits so nicely the quiet wolf trying not to attract attention and to look like he has said something & rubbed a few people the right way. And posting once per Day doing only that isn't the most helpful thing in the first place...

[the phantom]

Just thinking out loud here- were I a WW, I would not take Kitanna. Here's a chance to get TWO kills in one day!! Odds are we'll lynch a good guy. It's worth the risk.

Were I a Cobbler- .....I'm having a tough time answering this one. On one hand I'd be fully aware that my allies want to see a double kill. But on the other hand me and my brother Cobblers stand a chance of being lynched, and I would know that all the Cobblers surviving to Day 2 would give the WWs a leg up. It would perhaps be a free pass for me to do damage later in the game.

Bleh... this is difficult. I'd say that overall both would lean towards lynching someone else, but if one of the WWs or Cobblers felt that he himself was under the gun we certainly cannot rule out supporting the lynching of Kitanna.

[Nogrod]

Thanks for rewriting my post #137 tp...

[the phantom]

Current voting-

Lommy for Nogrod (1)
Shasta for Kitanna (1)
Gwath for Kitanna (2)
Greenie for Gwath (1)
Durelin for Gwath (2)
Mith for Kitanna (3)
Nilp for Kitanna (4)
Lal for phantom (1)

Originally Posted by Nog

Thanks for rewriting my post #137 tp

Oh whatever!

[Brinniel]

I agree that this lynching Kitanna business is quite silly. Regardless of what her role may be, she already dead. Yes, lynching her would give us an extra Day...but this early in the game I don't think an extra Day is that critical. I mean with two wolves, I think we have the advantage, even if we don't lynch them the first Days. It just doesn't make sense for us to waste our lynch on someone who's probably an ordo when we could be looking for a wolf. And as Lommy mentioned, if everyone just voted for Kitanna, there wouldn't be much for us to analyse toMorrow.

Let's see....Mithalwen is the one who came up with the possibility to lynch Kitanna, but on Day 1's in particular I tend to be more wary of the ones who bandwagon with such an idea....

tp seems to be playing with the idea. But no matter what decision he makes, if he's evil then he's probably a cobbler. Would he play so boldy on Day 1 were he a wolf?

I'm mostly worried about Gwath and Shasta. Gwath is insistent that lynching Kitanna is the best option once the idea's been put out. And then Shasta comes out of nowhere and votes Kitanna.

Hmmm....but then when I think about it again, why would a wolf vote Kitanna and want less casualities? If everyone voted her, it'd be easier for them to hide...but surely it'd be more advantageous (is that a word?) if they got rid of two ordos on Day 1 rather than just one. So perhaps that means a wolf is hiding in the group that's against lynching Kitanna. That doesn't stop me from considering that these bandwaggoners for lynching Kitanna are evil...but now I'm thinking more likely there's a cobbler among them trying to distract us..

[Mithalwen]

Since I raised the possibility I think I had better follow through - and I don't like this Gwathwaggon.

++ Kitanna

At least it does no harm....

[Lalaith]

Btw - I know a seer doesn't see a cobbler, but if one dies, we will be told his/her identity by the powers on high, won't we?

I'm not going to vote for Kitanna.

I'm just going through the thread again. I can see why people are worried about Nogrod. The Wittgenstein spoof doesn't bother me, actually, but however the quibbling over semantics does. (vis a vis the cobbler question) Nonetheless, I feel inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt just for now - I take Little Green's point.

I know I raised the issue of Gwathagor, but again, I'm inclined given his previous honest-seeming, to watch and wait on him.

I feel most worried about Phantom to be honest. I can't get a sense of a wolf right now but he feels rather Cobblerish.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I can't get a sense of a wolf right now but he feels rather Cobblerish.

Get your hands off him! Until Fea shows up he is all mine

[Nogrod]

Brinn is exactly right. Those who would oppose lynching Kitanna the most - if neither of them were on the firing line - would be the wolves... and the cobblers, for it is against their common good. It lessens their numerical advantage - or the advantage they might gain if Kit is just removed "for free" to them...

Another thing is whether they would conseal that stance and talk the other way.

I don't know about Gwath. Somehow I must admit that I don't quite like this sudden interest on lynching him that just materialised from out of nowhere.

I'd say Groin and Lommy are our best bets toDay.

[Brinniel]

I think Gwath is most likely a cobbler.

I really do think a wolf is among those who are against voting Kitanna, the problem is I don't know who.

If it has to come down between Kitanna and Gwath, I would rather vote Gwath because I'd rather eliminate someone I think is evil, than someone I'm sure is innocent...even if she will die anyway. Even though we have a cobbler hunter, they could totally disagree with...why save all the cobblers for them? As we all know, there are four of them and I doubt the hunter will successfully kill them all...

Of course, it's probably a better idea to vote for someone else entirely, someone who is more likely a wolf....but who?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Hmmm....but then when I think about it again, why would a wolf vote Kitanna and want less casualities? If everyone voted her, it'd be easier for them to hide...but surely it'd be more advantageous (is that a word?) if they got rid of two ordos on Day 1 rather than just one. So perhaps that means a wolf is hiding in the group that's against lynching Kitanna. That doesn't stop me from considering that these bandwaggoners for lynching Kitanna are evil...but now I'm thinking more likely there's a cobbler among them trying to distract us..

The cobblers are, presumably, as afraid of lynching wolves by accident as ordos are of lynching gifteds. So yes, I think it's not unlikely there's a cobbler or so in that group.

On the other hand, there is some merit in Mith's idea. I mean, if you had to chose between voting Kit and voting at random...

EDIT: X'd since Brinniel at 127.

[Mithalwen]

I never said it was ideal but it limits a lot of damage. And if nothing else talking about it has raised some possible cobblers. Be a bummer to lose the Assasin or Seer because safety play is boring. Tomorrow the village will have a better idea if people are unavoidable quiet or keeping a low profile.