Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[Brinniel]

Some first quick thoughts:

Possible wolves:
Durelin
Thinlómien

Possible cobblers:
Kath

Unsure:
Shastanis Althreduin
Nerwen
Nogrod
A Little Green
the phantom

Probably innocent:
Eönwë

Hmm...obviously I have some work to do...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

My conclusions about that:
Eönwe, Nerwen and Kath look more innocent than guilty because of their failures. If we're looking at the wolves they would vote everytime humanely possible.

Perhaps those who more consistently don't vote or are behind on the Days are less likely to be wolves, but just because someone isn't around or doesn't vote for one Day definitely doesn't lessen the possibilty of them being a wolf. I know when I was a wolf before I would sometimes have packmates that didn't show up and vote for whatever RL reasons (though usually it was only for one Day)...and those wolves tend to last longer because they so easily slip under the radar.

[Eönwë]

Hello. Anyone here?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I mean, I don't believe we have two wolves in that bunch I have just quoted but I'm getting pretty sure there is at least one. Looking at the game this far looks like a classical "loudmouths kill each other and the wolves play cool and noncontroversial".

You know, I have the same feeling. But at least there's still plenty of us loudmouths around - to make cases against each other. I mean, I'm really going to look into the relationship between you and Durelin toDay, but I think I should concentrate on those who slip under my radar too...

Speaking of which...

Are awake under my reindeer
Nogrod
Shasta
Durelin
Eönwë

Doze under my reindeer
tp - Yes, tp slips under my radar, in a way. Could you believe that? But I'm so used to him being around and being like that that I really don't pay attention to him. As if he was something not to bother about, like "oh, he's an ordo or a cobbler, it will be found out sooner or later" and it's rather troubling. (I guess I'm ignoring him the same way you start to ignore constant background noises. ) I guess it's because he really doesn't seem very suspicious to me. I should just know better than to trust him.
Greenie - I think I should be a tad more critical towards her and not just trust my gut-feeling of her innocence.
Brinniel - Funny, it always crosses my mind that she's suspicious, but it never develops into a proper suspicion. It is weird. And it's bad too. If I have extra time toDay I might have a look at her posts just to see whether she truly merits suspicion or not.

Sleep under my reindeer
Kath - The only thing I that comes to my mind when I think of her in this game is: she suspects me and doesn't suspect Nogrod. And the fact that she hasn't been around much. That's not very good, is it?
Nerwen - She seemed innocent early on, so I just mentally stamped her as an innocent and if she's a wolf, that's just way too bad.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

On Day 3, seven of thirteen voted!!!
This can not be.

Yeah, that's real madness. I mean, it's totally possible that among those seven there were just three ordos and then the two wolves and two cobblers... so it is possible that more than a half of the votes given yesterDay were evil. And that indeed is a scary thought.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And who says Greenie is innocent as she writes seldomly and votes early? That's the safest position...

Here I must defend her a little. She never is a loudmouth in these games. Yet she contributes, so why complain? Not all of us want to dedicate all of our free time to ww. And as for voting early, you know the deadline is 11pm our time and that she and I share a computer. She prefers to vote a bit earlier and then leave the computer for me for the last moments, while she goes and brushes her teeth etc so she can go to sleep as soon as I stop typing, but I still have all my pre-bedtime activities to do and get to go to sleep later than she does. I'd call her behaviour understandable - who would not like to go to sleep at 11pm if they have to wake up before 7am? (Granted, it is a good cover though if she's a wolf and I do not think her role affects whether she prefers voting and going to sleep earlier or later.)

Originally Posted by Brinn

Perhaps those who more consistently don't vote or are behind on the Days are less likely to be wolves, but just because someone isn't around or doesn't vote for one Day definitely doesn't lessen the possibilty of them being a wolf. I know when I was a wolf before I would sometimes have packmates that didn't show up and vote for whatever RL reasons (though usually it was only for one Day)...and those wolves tend to last longer because they so easily slip under the radar.

I agree.

[Brinniel]

I'm heading off for bed (yes, extremely late I know), but before I go I just wanted to express that I'm most concerned about Durelin. Her posts toDay and yesterDay make me uneasy, and whether it's as a wolf or cobbler, I really think she's up to no good. I would elaborate, but I'm tired...so that'll have to wait until I wake up. Hopefully I won't oversleep...

[Thinlómien]

Day 1

#8 Durelin on Nogrod

Heroes? What heroes?
All we have so far is some braincase trying to convince us that our inner demons killed two people, and a scruffy looking treasure hunter with a head too big for his fedora.

Regular Day1 bantering, doesn't reveal anything.

#66 Dury on Nog

I really am finding it hard to even toss out random suspicions atm. I'm always for lynching the phantom, though. I say we give Nogrod a little time.

Quite bold if they're fellow wolves, something unnecessary. Than again, there's nothing incriminating, so why not...?


Day2

#169 Dury on Noggie

I found myself disagreeing with Nogrod on several things already, which makes me feel we are on different sides...in this case meaning he is of an evil sort.

Nogrod feels bad to me. With all he said yesterDay and toDay about how it's only in the wolves best interest to try and get someone lynched other than Kitanna, yesterDay he developed his own quiet but consistent 'argument' for the lynching of Groin that basically boiled down to "he's quiet and isn't useful", being consistently Nogrod-ish but for show only. And yes, he voted for Groin. I had to go back and look, I couldn't remember at all who he voted for.

At this phase, it could be anything... but it's a little bold of her to accuse him even this much at this phase if they're indeed fellows as there had been other people suspecting him too...

#201 Dury on Noggie

I'm still looking at Nogrod.

Nothing to say.

#230 Dury on Noggie

I do feel a bit sorry for Nogrod, because no one seems to have understood his Day 1 role-playing at all. I don't suspect him for that...that was quite amusing. It's quite easy to use someone's role to get a person lynched, so I'm definitely wary of all the people harping on Nogrod's being cobblerish because of his role.

- says she still feels bad about him and has him on her baddie list -

I have this feeling like it's either Nogrod or phantom (which is very foolish, but there it is), and right now I think it's Nogrod. His arguments against phantom, though good, seem fabricated. They do not seem like pure Nogrod suspicion. He seems to be taking the easy route too much for him.

I find myself saying this again: they could be fellows, but in that case, they are quite bold. Although, one should note how she both defends and suspects him...

#233 Dury on Noggie
!!! - she votes him -

because he feels the worst. My brain tells me nasty things about others, but the most *feeling* is involved with him.

Now this is quite bold. Even though, she kind of drove herself to a point where she couldn't have voted anyone else without looking suspicious. It wasn't that risky to vote him as there really wasn't that much suspicion of him around, but then again, this was relatively early in the Day, and anything could have happened later...

#288 Nog on Dury
- he votes her -

As it seems to be Gwath I'll make a point.

Now, this is the perfect bold wolf retaliation.


Day3

#309 Nog on Dury
- just mentions her in a Mith-summary -
Well, obviously, this doesn't make us any wiser...

#316 Nog on Dury
- A Durylysis. Basically, he concludes that making the analysis didn't make him any more or less suspicious of her. -
Like I said, what I find funny in the analysis is that it looks like he assumes she knows the other villagers' roles.

#320 Nog on Dury

But just coming back to one point on my "Durylysis". Now she said yesterDay that Mith is as good as a known innocent. And then Mith died the next Night.
Would she be that bold a wolf? I don't think so. It would be a mad gamble with no clear advantages to be won - so just sport.

Now this is the perfect thing to say about a fellow wolf. Also, a perfect excuse for stopping suspecting her. And lastly, I disagree with him about this pointing at Durelin's innocence. It really doesn't.

#325 Dury on Nog
- Explains herself to him. -
Nothing fishy here.

#350 Nog on Dury
- lists her as one of those he has "actually suspected in this game" -
Funny, because he really didn't that much. Okay, he went to do that analysis, but after that he didn't suspect her. So he didn't suspect her for a long time at any rate. Maybe half a Day or something like that.

#367Nog on Dury

Dury I'm now bending to look more like an innocent - or a cobbler the most (yeah Lommy, think what you think but you're still wrong with it). She wouldn't have pointed to Mith being "universally innocent" and then gone to kill her the next Night. As a cobbler she might have wished to point that to the wolves to be sure.

A wolf could have pointed that out. Ha, actually it even makes sense for a wolf to do so: that is the perfect way of hiding some other reason to kill her, don't you think? And I don't really see why she couldn't just say that aloud and then in the Night realise she's the best kill.

#368 Dury on Nog
- agrees with Nog about Form -
Nothing fishy here, certainly, even though I'm tempted to interpret this as building grounds for a future alliance...

#373 Dury on Nog

Nog feels evil.

Wow, she's pretty strong about it. Maybe my theory doesn't make sense?

#380 Dury on Nog

++Fea
toDay, Nog maybe tomorrow.

Could be playing it safe for a mate, could be just voting someone that has a chance to get lynched.


Day4

#401 Dury on Nog

I feel that Nogrod and Kath aren't [innocent].

Pretty vehement, isn't it? On the other hand, it might look suspicious if she dropped it...

#403 Dury on Nog

What do you think of Kath, Nog?

Interesting...

#410 Nogrod on Durelin
- replies to her question -

Dury was indeed voting safe... indeed the "safest" of us all as there had been talk about voting Fea and some people agreeing and she just began it for real. That's a good place for a wolf.

Although I still think Dury's remark on Mith's general innocence makes her more an innocent than a wolf.

Could be anything, really. I still find it interesting how he balances between suspecting her and trusting her...

#412 Nogrod on Durelin

So I'd really look at that Fea-waggon with that in mind. I supplied the wood but the ignition was a responsibility of four (Dury, Brinn, Lommy and me).

Yeah...

#414 Nogrod on Durelin
- mentions her as one of those who has voted every Day and says those people are the most suspicious -
Again, he's balancing... I didn't get the point of this argument anyway...

#415 Nogrod on Durelin

Dury and Brinn?
It would fit many schemes... not the least yesterDay's action.
Just a gut-feeling. I'll try to look at it after I've slept and had a full day's work...

What a better idea than suggest your fellow is in cahoots with someone else...


Conclusion: The relationship between them is rather interesting. Durelin suspects and attacks Nogrod from rather early on and never drops it. Nogrod starts suspecting her at the end of Day2, then makes a case on Day3, finds a piece of evidence that "proves" her innocence and drops his suspicion, but still kind of continues suspecting her.

I don't really know what to make of it. If they're fellows, they are rather bold. I think they could be, but it feels a bit far-fetched. All in all, Nogrod behaves as if Dury could be his fellow, but she doesn't behave like he could be her fellow.

But there is something odd in there. I don't think they're both innocent. I think it's either that Durelin is a cobbler who thinks Nogrod is innocent and is therefore trying to get him lynched. Or then, Nogrod is a wolf and he's just treating innocent Durelin that way. I can't explain it, but his behaviour towards her looks a little like a wolf treating an innocent who suspects him...


edit: xed with Brinniel

[Nerwen]

Good analysis, Lommy. Yes, those two could bear watching.



However...

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Like I said, what I find funny in the analysis is that it looks like he assumes she knows the other villagers' roles.

Meaning this?–

(posted by Nogrod)She suspects Gwath (seer) for "a good bit of back-and-forth-ing" and Lalaith (innocent) as her ""fishy" comment feels like an easy stir up of things".

You may be reading too much into it.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

However...
Meaning this?–
You may be reading too much into it.

I know. But I still find it a little weird.

[Nogrod]

Thanks Lommy for the most enlightening analysis as what comes to Dury. It kind of helps me a bit with making of my mind with her. But I'm going to look at her myself as well.

To cut a long story short and to answer your musings then: I've felt bad with her from her early attacks on me on. Then I finally decided to see whether there was something else than just my bad feeling of her attacking me consistently and with very forcibly made arguments (if there were any). The "Durylysis" didn't help me much but didn't "free" her either. The "Mith is universally innocent" -thing made me doubt her guilt but thanks to you I'm getting over it - and kind of was getting over it already last night (RL) when I started thinking about Dury and Brinn as possibe mates in crime...

I mean I hadn't thought of this before:

Originally Posted by Lommy

And I don't really see why she couldn't just say that aloud and then in the Night realise she's the best kill.

That would make sense indeed.

[Durelin]

Oh, Nog...you just seem so darned evil.

Originally Posted by Nog

very forcibly made arguments (if there were any)

No one can really criticize me, because I don't think we've lynched a person yet based on any real arguments. It's all been "oh, they look like..." or "they feel..." I don't know how many people have voted for someone after actually making a case.

Why? For me it's because I've lacked the energy. I just started classes yesterday and that two people dropped from the game kinda killed some of my energy.

I only make a good wolf or cobbler in this game. I am absolutely terrible at spotting wolves. I don't even know how exactly you spot wolves. But last game a I really felt Nog was innocent after a bit, and this game I've really felt he's evil. I don't know how to explain it, though Lommy's analysis of his interactions and analysis of me makes me suspect him more. Hah, yes, maybe it's just cause he has 'suspected' me off and on.

It feels to me that Nog has been playing up the *help the village* thing this game, and I think he does that as a wolf. He tries to point out things that will help the village and this looks familiar to me:

Originally Posted by Nog

Hooray for the cobbler-assassin!

Ridiculous to call out? Maybe, but I got called out for a "Yay!" after the first wolf was lynched when I was a wolf one game, so I figure I might as well...