WW: LXXXVIII - Trouble in the Misty Mountains: Game Thread

[A Little Green]

KATH
(With emphasis on her relationship with Inzil, and a few other points that stood out to me. Not a complete analysis of all her posts.)

On Day 1, Kath makes a list. (She also votes Sally in the same post.)

Inzil - a loudmouth with some good discussion points! Like it.

In the early parts of Day 2, Kath further explains her Sally vote, which is fair enough considering how much suspicion that vote roused. She then moves on to speculate EW's death:

So I'm thinking really not a trailless kill unless Galadriel or Boro are wolves. Could be an attempt at a Legate set up - if so I'd think we have very bold or very new wolves given Legate voted for him making the connection obvious.

The following passage is potentially interesting in relation to my theory of Kath being a wolf with Azura (or Laeko, for that matter):

What I'm tempted to do is to vote for a potential modfire candidate. That way if Shasta does say modfire is happening then you guys can figure out what to do and my vote might come in useful.

On the other hand, clearly I don't actually suspect either of the potential modfire candidates as there is nothing to suspect them for!

Would a wolf with a fellow under threat of modfire say this? It wouldn't make much of a difference, I suppose, might even serve to make her look good. Then again, would a wolf with an inactive fellow be unaware of the modfire rules? (But then, if Shasta never said anything about them it might be that the wolves really were unaware of the modfire rules..) I'm just not sure. Kath abandons this plan soon enough, though.

From her list of people:

Inzil - really don't like it when people apologise for their votes posthumously (ach, that's not the right words but you know what I mean.) Seems to scream guilt. Could be a particular playing style but even if so I don't like it. Some suspicion of Bom for his vote placement. Agrees with Kitanna about not voting modfires.

Laeko - hey! Our newbie reappeared! This may change our entire modfire thoughts anyway! I like this so far - some good thoughts and reasoned suspicion of sally.

Aaaand vote post:

Possibilities:
Galadriel or Inzil for apologising for voting Pitch. I just find that very suspicious. It's like going 'Oh silly me! Don't blame me now, will you?'

sally for being hypocritical about the modfire situation. You do the same thing as someone else they can't be bad and you be good.

Boro for imagining a Pitch bandwagon and making a bigger deal out of it than there needs to be.

Quick re-read of Galadriel and Inzil's posts. On a re-read, Galadriel didn't actually apologise, she just stated frustration. Inzil on the other hand definitely apologised and tried to backtrack on his suspicion.

++INZIL

Wolf-on-wolf? In itself, it's hard to say this or that. This one becomes more interesting on moving to Day 3. Her comment on Inzil reads as follows:

Inzil - I can see again what Inzil is saying about sally not trying to save Pitch if she had dreamt of him. The timing is interesting though. After 4 votes for Pitch, a sudden blast of defence from sally wouldn't exactly have been a good way of trying to stay hidden! Some interesting points about Kitanna. She is often voting against her previous posts. Or well, not so much against as she is showing suspicion of the people she is voting for, but that those she votes for don't appear to be her top suspects prior to the vote.

She says nothing about whether she finds him suspicious or not, which I find rather curious considering that she voted him the Day before. Inzil has also completely vanished from her list of possible lynchees:

Based on that those I would consider voting would be:

Greenie - For such a flip floppy Nerwen vote. Either sally was an obvious Seer who the wolves were afraid would dream of NerwenWolf, or sally was not an obvious Seer. I just don't think you can have it both ways.

Legate - For that very aggressive tone early on. He has pulled it back but it has been commented on toDay that since doing so he has then tried to portray himself a little as a confused innocent. He may very well be that of course, it's just the slide into that after that very confident start that seems odd.

Boro - For changing from fairly calm, considered Boro to angry!frustrated!argumentative! Boro all in one go. Could be the result of the loss of two Gifteds and therefore his attempt to play more calmly went out the window. Or he's a wolf who has stopped being so bothered about keeping a calm cover after the loss of two Gifteds.

Because I feel my reasoning for Greenie is less so-so than for the others:

++GREENIE

Day 4, then.

Will say I won't vote Azura for the same reasoning as others have given. Seriously doubt s/he is a wolf with so little participation.

So, from the votes Greenie and Laeko seem most suspicious. Boro might be in there too but I'd like to know the answer to that question first.

Inzil - potentially interesting catch on Boro's wording about 'directing the wolves'. That said, Boro could hardly direct the wolves toward ... well ... wolves. Still it's odd wording. I don't like how Inzil doesn't actually make a clear point. It's all 'well I thought that but then' or 'could be this but that'. Yes, it's hard to be decisive, but constantly doing that makes it look like there's something to hide.

Thinks Inzil made a good catch (well, in all fairness, he did), but in the same breath says she doesn't like his cautious style of phrasing it. This looks, to me, most like wolf-on-wolf interaction between Kath and Inzil. In pointing out he made a good point, she strengthens an impression of Zil as a sharp and useful player, while in saying she doesn't like his style she avoids looking too much like his buddy.

Vote post reads as follows:

I cannot bring myself to vote for Laeko. It may be foolish but ... well, if she was a wolf I think she'd have made more mistakes basically. Right now we can't tell if she's newbie or newbie wolf. I think if it's not obvious then it's more likely that she's newbie.

I am leaning innocent with Nerwen. I think her posts come across as overly dramatic and factual but that the ideas and arguments are sound. I wouldn't say players are being manipulated in such derogatory terms, but it's entirely possible that her already somewhat suspicious playing style is being enhanced by the wolves.

I'm not going to vote Boro. If we would have had a double lynch yesterDay if he'd not broken the tie I think it makes his vote look more innocent. If Shasta was simply going to flip a coin and choose then I think it makes him look less innocent. As I'm not going to get an answer to that I'm going to hope Shasta replies later and that the information can be used.

My choice then is between Greenie and Inzil (Boro would be my third wolf if there was no danger of a double lynch yesterDay).

++GREENIE

I still feel her vote against Nerwen yesterDay was based on some very convoluted reasoning, and as I am leaning innocent on Nerwen I obviously disagree with Greenie's continued suspicion of her.

Would be convenient for a wolf to place a fellow as another lynch choice but vote for someone else. Makes her look good on the offchance the said fellow gets lynched at some point, but at the same time does not endanger him on a crucial Day. Her previous posts don't bring forth Inzil as a lynch candidate, she only brings up the idea in the same post where she already votes another player.

Conclusion about Kath? If she's a wolf, she's playing a careful game, there's nothing I could point at and call ”wolf!” She's been suspecting Inzil somewhat: voting him on Day 2, not really mentioning him Day 3, and bringing him up as a lynch candidate on Day 4. Not too much for wolf-on-wolf, in my mind.

Just based on yesterDay's votes, I'd be leaning on thinking Kath a wolf.