WW: LXXXVIII - Trouble in the Misty Mountains: Game Thread

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hello again! I am back! Happy, are you?

No, not really, though. I am just posting for Greenie now: only conveying the message that her internet is not working right now, so she cannot post, but she definitely will post at some point, at least an hour before DL.

That's it. Bye!

*crawls back into the mass grave*

[Kath]

I'm going to have to vote even earlier than usual toDay as I have to be in school earlier tomorrow morning.

So, as per usual, will read through the posts from toDay and see what has been going on, look at the votes from yesterDay and decide!

Will say I won't vote Azura for the same reasoning as others have given. Seriously doubt s/he is a wolf with so little participation.

[Kath]

Votes:
Greenie --> Nerwen (Can't say I'm totally getting this vote still. So, if the wolves had Seer options, they (with one of them being Nerwen) then looked only at the Seer options who would potentially dream of Nerwen, in order to avoid Nerwen being dreamed of and outed. Right. Technically this makes sense. I still think it is pretty convoluted reasoning to base a vote on, however. Also, Greenie states that this reasoning is in addition to previous suspicion of Nerwen, but there is no other suspicion bar that gained from this train of thought during the Day.)

Kath --> Greenie (Based on what I've just written above.)

Legate --> Nerwen (For being very jumpy and continuing to posit theories that were markedly different from his own which he considered ill-reasoned. Now, this debate raged yesterDay. sally did not leave extremely obvious clues. Therefore her posts are open to interpretation. Nerwen's 'jumpiness' could very easily be a result of the very forceful way that Legate argued against her yesterDay. Once I get on to reading toDays posts I think it will become clear whether that was the case or whether she is actually oddly jumpy.)

Kitanna --> Legate (For pushing buttons. Well, I can definitely see her reasoning. He was. In hindsight with the knowledge that he is innocent the reactions of those he 'pushed' needs to be addressed. The two people that most responded to that 'pushing' were Nerwen and Boro, and they did come under some heavy suspicion yesterDay. If either or both of them turn out to be wolves then, despite the unfortunate side effect of his death (!), Legate's 'pushing' may well prove useful.)

Nerwen --> Legate (Pretty much to save her own skin. Difficulty is, whatever her role she'd pretty much have done the same thing. If Gifted she knows she's more important to the village even if he's innocent. If ordo she knows nothing and assumes he's wolvish and a better lynch than her. If wolvish clearly she's going to want him lynched as she knows he's innocent.)

Inzil --> Legate (Was choosing between Nerwen and Legate to ensure his vote counted for something. This, at least, I like. It's not a throwaway or an 'easy' vote and it's a vote that's very hard to hide behind as a wolf. His reasoning for suspicion of Legate was stronger than anything he had on Nerwen and he did vote accordingly.)

Laeko --> Nerwen (Were Laeko not a newbie, I'd all but be proclaiming her wolvishness from the rooftops. Deliberately causing a tie, with absolutely no reasoning in her post? Can we say suspicious? I mean if she is a wolf then I take my hat off at the sheer audacity of that vote. It's difficult. I know newbies have sailed through under what turned out to be unwise automatic protection, but the rest of Laeko's posts hadn't raised any alarm bells for me.)

Boro --> Legate (Breaks the tie. Question: Did he have to? If he hadn't voted what would have happened with the lynch? Because I think that's rather important for deciding whether what he did makes him look good/bag/ugly.)

So, from the votes Greenie and Laeko seem most suspicious. Boro might be in there too but I'd like to know the answer to that question first.

Now on to toDay.

[Kath]

ToDay:

Nerwen - suggested two potential wolf pairings if their design is to set her up. Boro and Kit which she then largely discounted given Kit's innocence and Greenie and Zil. Given that is a rather narcissistic (though that doesn't necessarily mean incorrect!) theory I would like to see some evidence for these ideas. Comes to about the same conclusion as me about Laeko. Newbie or newbie wolf. That is the question.

Greenie - explains what she meant about sally. I understand the explanation now, but as I said, still think it's pretty convoluted and rather relies on a lot of factors coming together. Kind of disagree with her comment to Nerwen. If Nerwen is innocent then the amount of suspicion she found herself under yesterday, while likely as not partly due to her own posts, may well have been furthered by wolvish ploys. She can't know, but she can suspect and theorise, which is what she was doing. Greenie is arguing the speculative nature of the discussion is unhelpful, but it can produce ideas. However, I do agree that Nerwen's comment was overly decisive. It was stated as though it was fact rather than suggestion. Then analysed the votes and stated she suspected Inzil and Nerwen as a result. Inzil for voting for the easy target and Nerwen for previous reasons. Greenie then says Inzil and Nerwen don't look like fellows and tries to come up with other wolves. She says if Nerwen is a wolf then Boro may be one. However, in the next sentence she says she is leaning innocent on Boro. Again, can't have it both ways!

Boro - points out that of the two people he suggested were innocent the wolves went for Kit over me. Options would be because I am a wolf and therefore could not be killed; Inzil is a wolf and hoped to double bluff; Inzil is innocent and the wolves hoped to frame him toDay. I don't know Inzil's playing style very well. Is a fairly elaborate double bluff something he might try to do? Also mentions that Laeko has been very non-commital. This is true. I am struggling to remain ambivalent about her, but again I just keep coming back to her newbie status. Argues against Greenie's ideas on Nerwen 'washing her hands' of a Pitch-wagon.

Inzil - potentially interesting catch on Boro's wording about 'directing the wolves'. That said, Boro could hardly direct the wolves toward ... well ... wolves. Still it's odd wording. I don't like how Inzil doesn't actually make a clear point. It's all 'well I thought that but then' or 'could be this but that'. Yes, it's hard to be decisive, but constantly doing that makes it look like there's something to hide.

Well, that's it. Posting this, seeing if I've cross-posted, and then voting.

[Kath]

Aww no one else is here.

Alright then. Let's see.

I cannot bring myself to vote for Laeko. It may be foolish but ... well, if she was a wolf I think she'd have made more mistakes basically. Right now we can't tell if she's newbie or newbie wolf. I think if it's not obvious then it's more likely that she's newbie.

I am leaning innocent with Nerwen. I think her posts come across as overly dramatic and factual but that the ideas and arguments are sound. I wouldn't say players are being manipulated in such derogatory terms, but it's entirely possible that her already somewhat suspicious playing style is being enhanced by the wolves.

I'm not going to vote Boro. If we would have had a double lynch yesterDay if he'd not broken the tie I think it makes his vote look more innocent. If Shasta was simply going to flip a coin and choose then I think it makes him look less innocent. As I'm not going to get an answer to that I'm going to hope Shasta replies later and that the information can be used.

My choice then is between Greenie and Inzil (Boro would be my third wolf if there was no danger of a double lynch yesterDay).

++GREENIE

I still feel her vote against Nerwen yesterDay was based on some very convoluted reasoning, and as I am leaning innocent on Nerwen I obviously disagree with Greenie's continued suspicion of her.

And to bed.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Greenie

It would be. More than the fact that you voted Kath, though, I'm unnerved by how you first urged the Pitchwaggon on and then washed your hands as soon as it actually began to happen. Maybe I've been fixated on that, but nothing has made me change my mind, either. These latter Days, then, I'm not sure what to make of the fact that each Day you seem to have someone you get into a heated argument with (whether it was you who started it or the other I don't know), and those tend to end up dead. It confuses me more than causes suspicion, though.

And this kind of thing is precisely why I'm frustrated, and talking about "manipulation". In another game I'd be ready to vote Greenie for the contradiction between this post and her talk of "other reasons" she had stated "a hundred times already", not to mention falling back on the non-argument "nothing has made me change my mind"– which is very often the sign of a lazy wolf.

Problem: Galadriel55 did pretty much this exact same thing on Day Two, not to mention proclaiming herself a wolf more than once– and turned out innocent! This game is really making me doubt my own reasoning at every turn.

And just to clarify: no, it's not that I think no one has the right to suspect me, it's just that the way these suspicions have played out, the way certain innocents have behaved has been odd enough to make me think there's some funny business going on. (As, you know, there's meant to be.) I don't mean it's on one side either– I feel I've been manipulated into voting Gal and Legate. Again, I think the wolves, whoever they are, have been very clever in making use of everyone's mutual paranoia. Unless, of course, the wolves are Kath, Laeko and Azura, in which case they've been very clever at lying low and letting the village tear itself to pieces of its own volition. As I said in my first post, this, too, is possible.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Kath

Nerwen - suggested two potential wolf pairings if their design is to set her up. Boro and Kit which she then largely discounted given Kit's innocence and Greenie and Zil. Given that is a rather narcissistic (though that doesn't necessarily mean incorrect!) theory I would like to see some evidence for these ideas. Comes to about the same conclusion as me about Laeko. Newbie or newbie wolf. That is the question.

Nerwen to me is coming across as rather paranoid, and has the whole game. Next she'll be accusing us of stealing the strawberries.

Then again, hyper-defensiveness is also seen in Boro, what with the semantics arguments with Greenie and Legate.

Originally Posted by Kath

Greenie is arguing the speculative nature of the discussion is unhelpful, but it can produce ideas. However, I do agree that Nerwen's comment was overly decisive. It was stated as though it was fact rather than suggestion. Then analysed the votes and stated she suspected Inzil and Nerwen as a result. Inzil for voting for the easy target and Nerwen for previous reasons. Greenie then says Inzil and Nerwen don't look like fellows and tries to come up with other wolves. She says if Nerwen is a wolf then Boro may be one. However, in the next sentence she says she is leaning innocent on Boro. Again, can't have it both ways!

My only real issue with Greenie was what I said here, about Greenie's suggestion that Sally was killed because Nerwen was nervous, when it was Greenie who'd been actively voting for Nerwen.

Boro has at times been sharp and spot on, but other times it seems he's been reaching for reasons to suspect me, such as the deal about "backing away" from the fact that I voted for Pitch.

As for Kath, I've found she makes pretty good sense, though I've had an issue or two with her votes, like the Sally one, and the Day 2 vote for me, which honestly looked like a throwaway, even it's me saying so.

Originally Posted by Kath

My choice then is between Greenie and Inzil (Boro would be my third wolf if there was no danger of a double lynch yesterDay).

++GREENIE
I still feel her vote against Nerwen yesterDay was based on some very convoluted reasoning, and as I am leaning innocent on Nerwen I obviously disagree with Greenie's continued suspicion of her.

Interesting. Just like yesterDay....

x/d with Nerwen

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Boro has at times been sharp and spot on, but other times it seems he's been reaching for reasons to suspect me, such as the deal about "backing away" from the fact that I voted for Pitch.

Reaching? "Sorry, Pitch" (looks like the apology) and then "as I said yesterday, I had doubts about your wolvishness" (looks like a clear back track).

I might be reaching on your comments on the end of Day 2, where you pointed out to Nerwen that you were the one who started the Pitch-wagon. But, you backing away from the vote, is not a reach. Whether it was unintentional or you did it to make us think you didn't already know Pitch was innocent, you still backed off it.

As for Kath, I've found she makes pretty good sense, though I've had an issue or two with her votes, like the Sally one, and the Day 2 vote for me, which honestly looked like a throwaway, even it's ,e saying so.

Her sally vote was strange at the time, but not so much anymore now that sally didn't think it a big deal. Her vote for you on Day 2, however was well reasoned and she voted before the G55 and Nerwen really got into it.

You can't really call it a throw away when Kit had voted early for Bom and Greenie voted for Nerwen based on Nerwen's reactions to the Pitch-wagon. And when Kath voted at a time well before the G55-Nerwen business became a mess.

[Inziladun]

Less than three hours til DL.

No Laeko or Azura yet, I see.

We already have one vote.

Kath-->Greenie (1)

And the only one I'm fairly certain is not a wolf is Azura.

Lovely.

x/d with Boro