WW: LXXXVIII - Trouble in the Misty Mountains: Game Thread

[Kitanna]

I've voiced other concerns about Nerwen. And she hasn't sad anything today to lessen those concerns.

First here's this last minute post from Day 2.

G55, if you're not just a wolf messing with our heads, you've got nothing to gloat about– you did this to yourself. And no, I have no idea what you're talking about.

Who's gloating here? I suspected G55 heavily, but I didn't rub her trip to the gallows in her face either.

"I trust your judgement". I know they tend to flirt a bit, but a Seer would probably avoid saying that about an unknown.

Here she puts Boro forward. I laid out my theories on this in my post about Legate. I see no reason to revisit it again so soon.

Maybe the wolves are using my kill list now.

She's made a few lamenting comments. Including one about us not lynching the Ranger today. This seemingly harmless comment about innocence seems forced. Her "kill-list" was the subject of a few posts, it didn't dominate the day like Bom/Pitch's joke argument.

She had some back and forth with Greenie. "Don't put too much stock in the 'won't vote' list" etc.

Okay, I see what you mean now. However, that second list is prefaced by, "Based on both yesterDay's malarkey and reactions to my modfire plan toDay...." that is, I should say, "...not on my dreams..."

I think at least one of Sally's dreams was on her list and I think that's safe to assume. I'm not sure why Nerwen isn't at least considering the list as an angle. She seems deadset against wanting to use it as a clue. It's not the best idea to base everything around it, but given who is on it and what Sally said about them I think something can be gleaned.

She argues against Legate's Pitch theory. A sensible post without any warning bells for me.

Quite a distortion, there, Legate. I didn't "push it", I put it forward as a logical inference. Why are you "pushing" that she dreamed Pitch– which really doesn't make sense?

Legate, the point is not who is right– unfortunately, I'm not sure we *can* come to a definite conclusion– it's that, well, we've lost the Seer, the best we can do is try to glean what we can from her comments while alive. As is usual. Why try to frighten people off a particular line of reasoning? I mean, it's one thing to say, "I don't agree with you because of such-and-such", quite another to– well, honestly, you're pretty close to threatening me there. A bit excessive, surely?

This next post is what really worries me. Legate hadn't said anything so I think this could be something she thought of after posting her last comment. However, this seemed like a big overreaction after she seemed to shrug off Legate's "threat" in the previous post.

Actually, Legate has been making a habit of aggressively steering the discussion away from certain topics. He did it on Day One, with his "warning vote" on TEW, and on Day Two by stepping in to end the theorising over why TEW had been killed. Not that I can't see the logic of that– after a certain point, such talk can become a waste of time and a distraction, or even a nice smokescreen for the evil side. Still, this is becoming a pattern. I don't know what it means, though– I could hardly call it a sign of lupinity, since the Legwolf I remember is a *lot* smoother and sneakier.

Again, no response from Legate, just continued attack on him. She's jumping all over him, but at the end she recants and says he's not being smooth enough to be of the lupine persuasion.

Regarding Kath: the argument in favour of her being the Night One dream is obvious. However, Sally didn't really react that much when there was talk of voting Kath on Day One, which is bugging me a bit. It may be simply that it never seemed that Kath was in real danger.

I think Kath may well have been the Night 1 dream so this could be my own prejudice talking, but Nerwen seems to want to use sally's lukewarm defense as a reason why Kath couldn't be the dream. Nerwen has stated she sees merit in the belief Kath was the dream, but is bugged by Sally's reaction. On Day 1 how much would Sally really want to reveal about what she knew? If Kath was the dream I don't see Sally jumping over and declaring Kath innocent outright.

On the other, he's certainly not acting anything like he normally does as a wolf. Thoughts?

Again she points fingers at Legate, but backs off within the next sentence.

Hang-on– you still believe it now? Have you read the counter-arguments, Legate?

She continues to fight the Pitch-dream theory.

Like I said earlier in post 151 Sally says she suspects Nerwen more than G55. I think she wanted to dream of Nerwen. It seems a stretch that the wolves killed Sally because they saw this as a seer hint, but maybe they didn't like her sniffing around their packmate.

Right now Legate and Nerwen are highest on my list.

[Nerwen]

Given that Greenie has just voted me, this may seem like a retaliation– but it's not that, in fact I'm not saying it has to point at Greenie herself being evil, but it is rather curious.

As has been said, Sally doesn't seem to have said anything that screamed "Seer!" Her lists, for example, are nothing like the hinting lists some Seers make.

Greenie, on the other hand, posted this yesterDay:
#98.

Originally Posted by Greenie

A quick list, based more on feeling than fact since I don't have time to reread as much as I'd wish.

Legate - Feels fine this far.
Sally - Undecided about her. Like I said, she underlines her own innocence in a suspicious way, but reacted to Kath's vote in a relatively innocent way.
Inzil - Bad feeling. Couldn't pinpoint it right now, I'm sure I'd find a reason for the feeling if I reread his posts.
Kath - Good vibes.
Kitanna - Really sharp, not sure about her alignment though!
Bom - Undecided. Initial reaction was "suspicious!", after which I remembered I always think that whatever his role. So a questionmark for now.
Nerwen - Somewhat suspicious because, as stated before, she urged the Pitchwaggon on but backed off when it actually began.
G55 - Good and bad vibes at the same time! Another I'd love to reread.
Boro - Nothing alarming this far.
Azura - Still not around, right?
Laeko_Randalis - Couldn't say.

I think this actually looks more like a coded list than anything Sally posted– note all the "undecideds" and "not sure about alignments". It is true that only one person (Kath) is in the "good vibes" category, but Seers don't always list the people they know of together– too much of a giveaway– and I'd accept Legate's being "fine this far" as a near-equivalent.

I'm just wondering why the wolves bit on Sally instead.

EDIT:X'd with Kitanna.

[Kath]

Alright, well, internet is ok but it took a lot longer than anticipated so I'm only around the next 15 minutes. Won't have time to really look at people properly as a result so analysis won't be as detailed as yesterDay. Probably going to have to look just at toDays posts and then vote.

I won't be voting for anyone who hasn't posted yet toDay (if there is anyone) as again I think that's unfair.

Greenie - guessing sally's Night 3 dream is fairly pointless as sally can't have told us anything about whoever she dreamt of but good reasoning behind who it might have been. Dreaming possibilities: Boro (then recants it), Inzil, Kath, herself, TEW. That 'razor-sharp' comment could be suspicion or could be digging for a reaction or could be compliment! Votes Nerwen based on previous reasons and based on the idea that the wolves would try to protect WolfNerwen by killing SeerSally. Rather assumes the wolves had figured out sally was the Seer despite her just saying that sally wasn't an obvious Seer.

Nerwen - Dreaming possibilities: Boro, TEW, Kath. Thinks people like Inzil and Greenie are less likely dreams as they are based only on the 'will not vote' list. Am inclined to agree, there is subtle and there is opaque! Like the catch on sally seeming to say her ideas came from the thread alone. Argues dreaming of Pitch with some fair points. That said, if she did dream of him and knew he was innocent rather than Gifted, the danger in trying to save him would be the possibility of pushing someone into the lynch she did not know the role of, and that person ending up Gifted.

Legate - puts credence in the 'will not vote' list. I think the 'I told thee so' with Pitch is interesting. It's a particularly separate sentence, apart from anything else, short and sharp. Could well be the result of a dream. Disagrees with Nerwen (and from a quick read through this seems to continue) about Boro. Here I think we are going to see the effect of one person taking the 'will not vote' list as evidence of dreams and one person not doing so. His statement about not trusting Nerwen was rather aggressively phrased. 'Push' is a very strong term for what Nerwen said about Boro.

Inzil - I can see again what Inzil is saying about sally not trying to save Pitch if she had dreamt of him. The timing is interesting though. After 4 votes for Pitch, a sudden blast of defence from sally wouldn't exactly have been a good way of trying to stay hidden! Some interesting points about Kitanna. She is often voting against her previous posts. Or well, not so much against as she is showing suspicion of the people she is voting for, but that those she votes for don't appear to be her top suspects prior to the vote.

Kitanna - Dreaming possibilities: TEW and Kath. Thinks Nerwen is quite jumpy. Well, yes, but as noted Legate was pretty aggressive. Asks Legate why he holds on to his Pitch theory. Well there are arguments against it but I think there are arguments for it as well. Again, it depends whether or not you use the 'not vote' list as evidence.

Boro - I ... don't get his post. I know Boro can often be a player who really shows his frustration, but he seemed to take that comment from Legate as an attack against him when really it was directed at Nerwen. Sure Legate mentioned suspicion of Boro but the reason for the suspicion was down to Nerwen's aforementioned 'pushing' (that wasn't). It's this whole 'this is probably going to get me lynched' attitude that is throwing me. Is that because he was about to argue against the theory that he had been dreamt of and thus try to disprove his own potential known innocent status? That said, he then comes up with some really interesting thoughts about the dreams. I hadn't thought about TEW being unlikely if sally still wanted to lynch him the next Day. I think we all need to start putting some sort of glossary up explaining exactly what we mean by certain words! After mine and Boro's 'Pitch-wagon' debate yesterDay and now this one with him and Greenie over 'scary'.

Right, posting this, then voting.

[Nerwen]

Kitanna, in everything that you've quoted, I'm just expressing honest doubt. I tend to second-guess myself and find counter-arguments to my own arguments. I'm just like that.

And with the Legate– thing– well, yeah, first I shrugged it off, then I started thinking about how peculiar he was being. That's all.

EDIT:X'd with Kath.

[Kath]

Based on that those I would consider voting would be:

Greenie - For such a flip floppy Nerwen vote. Either sally was an obvious Seer who the wolves were afraid would dream of NerwenWolf, or sally was not an obvious Seer. I just don't think you can have it both ways.

Legate - For that very aggressive tone early on. He has pulled it back but it has been commented on toDay that since doing so he has then tried to portray himself a little as a confused innocent. He may very well be that of course, it's just the slide into that after that very confident start that seems odd.

Boro - For changing from fairly calm, considered Boro to angry!frustrated!argumentative! Boro all in one go. Could be the result of the loss of two Gifteds and therefore his attempt to play more calmly went out the window. Or he's a wolf who has stopped being so bothered about keeping a calm cover after the loss of two Gifteds.

Because I feel my reasoning for Greenie is less so-so than for the others:

++GREENIE

And to bed.

NOTE: Will have crossposted with everyone since my last but one post.

[Boromir88]

Day 1

Gave a pretty cautious, and luke-warm Inzil impression on Day 1. Not involved aside from doing a few IC posts about the guide (and suspecting Pitch because Pitch said Inzil was harping on the guide).

This is perhaps Inzil's most substantial post of Day 1.

Kath's vote seems a bit odd, true, but I can posit an innocent reason behind it, as well as the obvious evil throwaway potential.

The way Pitch latched onto G55 as soon as she appeared is a bit jarring. Would an evil Pitch be so obvious, though?

And Legate Voting TEW as a "warning vote". I get his point about TEW, but that seems like a rather extreme "warning".

Meh. I apologize for being useless toDay. If I'm around, I'll do my best to make it up Day 2.

There was the accusation of me "harping' about the guide being partly responsible for our predicament (which I mentioned in only two halfhearted IC posts). Then his interactions with Bom, followed by the sudden switching of targets to G55.

He admits to feeling useless for the day, but still seemed detached, or as if he didn't care where the lynch went. Not sure if I can explain it well...but just the "Let me give a few names, say some wishy-washy suspicions, and vote. And again, to point out, at this time he made the Pitch vote, thinking that it would be the 1st vote for Pitch.

Day 2

Now, back from Day 1, Inzil had said he'd be better. Fairy nuff not going to fault someone for being busy and rushed. Also, TEW did vote for Inzil (which reminds me Legate argued for a possible frame job against Inzil).

Originally Posted by #102

First off, sorry about that, Pitch. He was the only one I really had anything on, even though, as I said, I had some doubts about his lupinity. The two votes for him coming so hot on the heels of mine was rather freaky.

Not much time for much of toDay, sadly. I'll get on when I can, though.

I believe this was the main reason for Kath voting Inzil, yesterday, yes? The apology does raise a wolf flag. Not really the "Sorry Pitch" part, but he seems to be trying really hard to convince us he didn't mean it "as I said, I had some doubts about his lupinity." Then deflects away from his vote, by reminding about the two votes that quickly followed.

I think this more likely than a desire for a trailless kill, as there would seem to have been more choices who left a lot less to be analyzed than TEW.

His response to Nerwen, who had suggested TEW was killed as a possible frame job and TEW's general behavior seemed possibly gifted. Not sure if this tells us anything about Inzil, but Legate, are you sure you still want to call me the aggreeable one?

Originally Posted by #117

I concur. The Pitch votes (and yes, that includes mine) should naturally be our focus, I think.

Why did I vote for him? I said so here and here.

Kitanna's and G55;s x/d with mine. Over an hour later, Bom came in with his, and sealed Pitch's fate.

G55 has said hers was "out of spite". Since it led to his lynch, that would seem an especially questionable reason.

Kit's was better reasoned.

Bom's, by virtue of the timing, and the somewhat intense interactions between him and Pitch, might look the worst.

Responding to Legate, and huh agreeing with Legate, that the Pitch votes should be the focus and not why TEW was killed. And the inclusion of "(and yes, that includes mine)" looks out of place. Why make sure we remember Inzil is including his own vote?

His next couple posts are a few comments on the mod-fire rule and game mechanics. Nothing that would seem to tell us anything about him

But in #157, led me to wanting to have a closer look at Inzil yesterday:

I wouldn't say I "backtracked", though I did feel bad for voting him. It seems I always end up suspecting him and he's never guilty.

That was his reply to Kath, who said Inzil apologized for his Pitch vote. He disagrees, but really what would you call "as I said, I had some doubts about his lupinity," then?

I think Nerwen looks more shiny than G55 at the moment. Also feeling rather good about Kit.

Boro is up to something. Good? Evil? Meh.

Legate seems to be his genuine innocent self.

Greenie seems sharp somehow. Not really sure what I mean by that, but she makes sense and gives me pause at the same time.

Some more general comments and feelings about people. All pretty non-commital, feels good about some. I have no idea what the "Boro is up to something. Good? Evil? Meh." statement was supposed to mean.

#164, tells Legate, he likes what he sees from Laeko, but not enough to declare innocent. And says he'd be in favor of Bom if voting Bom was possible, but the day would look like it was coming down to Nerwen and G55.

#169, he decides he could vote for G55 "based on what Nerwen says" (if that doesn't look like a set up statement, then I don't look smashing in a Tux), but also...

...as well as the fact that she was involved in the Pitch-wagon yesterDay (along with, coincidentally, I'm sure, Bom ). It's hard for me to believe no wolves were involved with that.

Nerwen points out that Inzil was also involved in the Pitch-wagon and one of his replying comments just seemed unnecessary:

And to be accurate, I started the Pitch-wagon.

I said this wouldn't be something I would be very proud of, and Inzil clarified, he wasn't proud, but stating fact. Still, the statement looks unnecessary, but it was prompted by Nerwen reminding Inzil was also in the Pitch-voters. I don't think I explained it clearly yesterday, and probably can't clarify much better today. But, why feel the need to say this unless, you Inzil, were getting nervous Nerwen was suspecting you for being in the Pitch voters. Yet, still trying to appear unbiased because you were the one who "started" it.

From Day 2 then, continued non-commital towards nearly everyone. Except on Day 1 he picked Pitch (then apologized for it next day) and Day 2, he seemed mostly focused on Bom until realizing Bom would be a throw away vote. And Bom conveniently wasn't there to challenge or answer Inzil suspecting him.

I stand by what I said yesterday, that Inzil is certainly better and more involved than what he's been showing. And in some ways he's looked nervous when Nerwen pointed out he was in the Pitch-wagon, when Kath said he back-tracked on his Pitch vote. And really Legate, you say my posts are aggreeable?

Haven't thoroughly read his post on Kitanna today, will go do that after supper.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I don't think so. Boro's playing intelligently, but I wouldn't call it agreeable. I think Boro is less suspicious of being agreeable and more suspicious for arguing over the meaning of words. (Ex: Legate's use of agreeable and Greenie's use of scary).

Fairy nuff (and to Kath's latest posts which I crossed with). Nothing really frustrates me more about this, than being suspected with unexplained and vague statements. I used to be able to ignore it because they were never really serious, but lately seems like you can easily get lynched if someone says you look scary or are "up to something." It just leaves me to throw my hands up, like sorry, what do you want me to do about always being up something?

And Greenie, glad you don't want to get into the semantics. If I was coming off as bullish, I'm sorry, I didn't mean to. I was trying to expresss the frustration, while also saying if you suspect me, then suspect me. Because I know you're better than that to give me a fair chance to defend suspicions.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But you understand that I put forward that theory *before* Greenie pointed out the anomaly of Boro's being left off the list the second Day?

That as well might be, but the point is that you still keep holding to it even up to now. No considering of the anomaly still, then?

And okay, I really don't want to keep us picking in this any more, but in order to respond:

Hang-on– you still believe it now? Have you read the counter-arguments, Legate?

Which ones? In what you replied to, I was no longer talking about Pitch. I had said already by then that it is possible, not a 100% truth (and I never said that, I mean, who would), and from almost the beginning, I was saying that it is not as much ("that re: thing not being so much, BUT it being a possibility"), what I said later was only that I still think it more probable than your Boro theory. And that's what I was talking about, not about Pitch: I was saying that the Boro theory makes no sense, in my book. I mean, yes, it was not any "hello, these people are innocent:" list, but it was still a Seer's list, almost the only thing she had said ever about people in some ordered way, it seems obvious to me she had not dreamt a wolf at any point, and if I was a Seer, I definitely would not omit the possibility to list my known innocents on the lists of people I trust. Why should I not? What would I lose by that? So unless Sally acted completely illogically here (which is possible, but I would rather hope not), then Boro is not an option for the dreamed innocent for me.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Really? You keep saying I'm being Mr. Agreeable, but seriously, are you even reading my posts? What about them is so "agreeable?" The fact that I'm not being a big enough pain, jumping around like a madman demanding everyone listen to me? Sorry to disappoint you, but I see no point in going off half-cocked, all but begging to be lynched.

Boro! Now if you are innocent, what kind of a behavior is that? Suddenly you totally jumped out at me after I said that you are too agreeable. What should I think now, that you did so because I warned you that you are acting too agreeable?

Okay, maybe this jump is genuine, after I have read it twice. But yes, you are being Mr. Agreeable, that is a fact. You've been rather un-conflict-y until very recently, you have been responding to posts (also in the earlier days a few times) which I would have expected you to retaliate to with rather random wave of your hand, if ever. Anyway however, that is not a crime. I confess that probably my judgement of you was also partially clouded by considering Nerwen's peculiar pedantry on you being innocent really suspicious in the sense that you two could be packmates. But all right, what then?

If Boro looks better now when I look back, that also means that if he is innocent, surely Nerwen won't be "defending" him if she was a Wolf. If I am willing to admit that Nerwen's thinking was just that of a differently thinking innocent, then of course there is a lot more to ponder.

I could of course make a complete 180° and turn to what has been troubling me since the start (or since sometime yesterDay anyway), but which I kept shrugging of as complete paranoia: the thinking that Kath and/or Greenie and somebody else (? Kit ?). I mean: if Nerwen is not a Wolf, then I could expect that the Wolves are fueling the Nerwenwaggon or messing around with the general public opinions and feelings, and in that case, it could possibly be Greenie (voting Nerwen), or again Kath, when she debates with herself about the issues with me and Nerwen and everyone, that could be interpreted also in the way of somehow adding small pieces of fuel to the general fires. Kit could be the same with her Nerwelysis (which, however, in some ways seems bringing rather good points and notices, it is only at some points sort of "dragging Nerwen down" along, but then again, analysis is analysis... if there is something negative-looking, you have to mention it). Of course, one would have hard time thinking that these two are packmates, with Kath voting Greenie. In any case, Kath still seems rather reasonable in her actions and with the pondering in her latter lists, and it would be rather a bit of paranoia that would bring me to consider her. But then again, at this stage of the game, everything is a paranoia.

At least for me, so yes, if you wish, call it a confused innocent. And especially toDay has been somewhat distracting for me.

Still, if I look at it, there are still most things which are unsettling about Nerwen. The Boro thing is not one of those I would vote her for, though: at least not unless I have a proof that Boro is her packmate. It is more like a puzzling thing. Although of course if one is a Wolf, it often happens that if your opinion appears faulty, it is better to still hold to it so that you don't lose credit - not sure if Nerwen especially would operate on this basis, though. Does not really strike me as that kind of player. Or maybe yes? But the way she reacted to some stuff is still unsettling, even if I put this away. And now what I found also strange was the last list about Greenie she posted, as it seems totally "what the Angband is that?" I mean, are you saying that Greenie's post looks more like a Seer list than Sally's and therefore Greenie should've been killed, and since she was not, it proves she was a Wolf? Weird.

And I am once again completely missing Azura and Laeko - who haven't been very talkative (though as I recall Laeko posted yesterday quite innocentishly).

Probably x-ed with a lot... and sorry for the novels. Also should vote soon-ish, preferrably.

EDIT: x-ed with some Boro

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Basically: I either must say that we have a village full of Werewolves, or that there is none. Depending what threshold I set on my "Wolf-detector". If I set it too low and ignore everything with saying "yes, this was probably meant well, it only sounds weird", I end up with no WWs at all. If I set it too high, I can just as well end up with suspecting everyone. It certainly should not work that way.

Where the detector "beeps" the first now is probably Nerwen. However there are many "but"s, still it probably is the closest to what I would call "suspicious" right now. The biggest "but" probably is: But why would she act like she does if she was a Wolf? I mean - it is not very "professional", to get jumpy, to make seemingly illogical claims about who was or was not dreamt of... maybe one could think about inventing fake suspicions of people based on stuff like "because she is still alive and it seems to me that she looked like a Seer, she must be evil", but that's a bit weird too, also, it might have been possibly retaliatory - in the "good" sense - an innocent replying in affectu (it can influence you even if you don't actually realise that). You can explain everything positively or negatively, the question is where you draw the line.

One could also ask: so what are the Wolves like now? Are they calm and collected (Kath? Greenie?), or are they somehow frustrated and jumpy - now they shouldn't be, should they, they are in rather good spot now - unless they are being suspected (Nerwen? Boro?). By the way, if there is no Wolf among these four, I call upon the powers of the Valar so that you choose to lynch me instead so that I cannot do any more harm. But on a more serious note, I really need to make a decision and Nerwen probably looks the lowest in the "beep" field, like I said. Unless... unless it happens to be the very same thing like the last two Days - in other words, just another bandwagon. Hm, I think I know what I will do now: I need to take a look at the two Days' voting lists again. Now with considering all the different possibilities, maybe there is something I forgot.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Boro! Now if you are innocent, what kind of a behavior is that? Suddenly you totally jumped out at me after I said that you are too agreeable. What should I think now, that you did so because I warned you that you are acting too agreeable?

I'm more thinking just different meanings. By agreeable I assume you meant I was mimicking what people were saying, which to me, is flat out untrue. Sounds like though you say I'm coming off as "Mr. Nice Guy" though? Trying to sweet talk people with calmness.

Granted, I haven't been as bull-headed as I can be, but that side tends to come out when things really become desperate. But that normally leads to greater frustration and just getting the "ahh screw it/hopeless" attitude.

You will probably say this makes me agreeable, but I do admit to not giving any substantial look at Nerwen. That mostly comes from a history of being unable to figure her out and then flat out fear. My general impression, based on yesterday, is that G55 was acting like a loon and I can't find suspicion against Nerwen for that carnival show. G55 did a good job making people think she was a wolf. And also, because of G55's eratic behavior, it put Nerwen in a defensive position, which has carried over to the suspicion today.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm more thinking just different meanings. By agreeable I assume you meant I was mimicking what people were saying, which to me, is flat out untrue. Sounds like though you say I'm coming off as "Mr. Nice Guy" though? Trying to sweet talk people with calmness.

The second is what I mean, and I said it also back then, I think I used words like "honey-tongued" or something. So yes, when I say "Mr. Agreeable", I mean by that "not responding aggressively, or even not questioning people so much in general, but acting more like 'yes, my friend, you have a good point'".

You will probably say this makes me agreeable, but I do admit to not giving any substantial look at Nerwen. That mostly comes from a history of being unable to figure her out and then flat out fear. My general impression, based on yesterday, is that G55 was acting like a loon and I can't find suspicion against Nerwen for that carnival show. G55 did a good job making people think she was a wolf. And also, because of G55's eratic behavior, it put Nerwen in a defensive position, which has carried over to the suspicion today.

The last sentence is true and something worth thinking about. However, the same way indeed you should not probably just go over Nerwen's posts - or others' suspicions against her, more like - with the attitude "nah, this is all just born out of yesterDay, I know she is being wronged here, I don't even need to consider whether it does not have any real basis" (I'm saying that because I know from experience it's easy to do that). But yes, well, balance of opinions needs to be maintained.

Now I have looked at the voting lists, I will maybe think about them still for a while just in case I don't get some brilliant idea... while doing that, I have also actually reread large parts of the thread. Looking at it, I am now feeling more on the "I think nobody is a Wolf" side - or in fact, I started thinking how, erm, hilarious it would be if the Wolves were Laeko and Azura (and somebody who keeps just hiding well, but then again, not sure if there is anybody exactly like that right now). But I guess (I hope) nobody (meaning: no Wolf pack) could be that lucky (to end up in such a constellation). Aside from that, I would be inclined to think Sally's death was carefully planned, and somehow it seems difficult to imagine the coordination with group of the "hiding" kind.

If I wanted to look at the "worst" votes overall I think it could be for example Kit's, or at least the yesterDay's one, in the start, I don't quite like it, as the first (the other one was this triple-cross, so who knows what to make of it). There are some people of whom there are some missing votes (aside from Laeko and Azura, there's Greenie who already voted toDay but did not vote on Day 1, however with explanation), which makes them more difficult to analyse.

Last of all, once again re-read some quotes of Nerwen, and even now with bearing what Boro said in mind, some of those still look a bit Wolvish, like (to Gal):

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And should you happen to turn out innocent– which is seeming less and less likely– my excuse would of course be that I thought you were probably a wolf, from your conduct. Which I do.

There are these "pre-emptive" words. Once again one could start asking if a Wolf would so "bluntly" post something like that. But then again, why would an innocent say that, too?

I think I might still take a look at Inzil - there is still the possibility of him being "the slippery one" and the TEW thing being really a preemptive strike based on fear of the Seer who dreamt of Zil, and then I'll see about my vote.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hm. I don't know about Zil. Sort of dark area for me, still too much. I have also reread some posts by Greenie, now I am inclined to count her among the innocent.

Of all people, Nerwen still looks to me the most voteworthy, but it would be really nice if she still posted at least once before I have to go, so that I could compare some "fresh" posts of hers, too.

Okay, will be back in some time - let's say fifteen, twenty minutes - and then vote, because it is getting close to 3 AM here. Heck, am I supposed to start to be like Nogrod, since we don't have him in this game?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Oh come on, that was nearly half an hour (or more by the time I finish this...). If there are any Wolves lurking around and avoiding posting, I hope they are lynched a painful lynch.

Zil definitely deserves a second look, for future reference - he is sort of floating on the edge of the debate, adding a bit here and there, very sort of "defensive" or maybe rather "pre-emptive", that's better word - very careful in pointing out how he did not want to vote Pitch, how he was freaked out by other people voting Pitch too (why did you vote him, then?), next Day immediately making sure he posts explanations as to why did he vote him, yesterDay making a vote when the bandwagon was already running smoothly, making several posts with little substance or lot of uncertainity, like this:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Boro is up to something. Good? Evil? Meh.
(...)
Greenie seems sharp somehow. Not really sure what I mean by that, but she makes sense and gives me pause at the same time.

= saying nothing, and yet this was quite a substantial portion of his post...

And so on. But nevertheless, this is all to remark that it might be good to look at him. As for my current vote, I will go with my original option, that is,

++Nerwen

And good Night, village.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I think this actually looks more like a coded list than anything Sally posted– note all the "undecideds" and "not sure about alignments". It is true that only one person (Kath) is in the "good vibes" category, but Seers don't always list the people they know of together– too much of a giveaway– and I'd accept Legate's being "fine this far" as a near-equivalent.

I'm just wondering why the wolves bit on Sally instead.

Well, let's see. I don't see anything really noteworthy about Greenie's list there. It is a bit curious that while Sally had expressed suspicion of you, it was Greenie who had voted for you Day 2. It doesn't mean I don't have my doubts about you, but it's food for thought.

And Boro, I'm not going to line by line go through your analysis of me. If it seems off that I made a point of saying what I did and why, so be it. When I stressed that I had not only been involved in the Pitch-wagon but had been the first vote as well, my intention was to be fair. I'm not worried about my actions. Let people take them as they will.

x/d with Legate

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Zil definitely deserves a second look, for future reference - he is sort of floating on the edge of the debate, adding a bit here and there, very sort of "defensive" or maybe rather "pre-emptive", that's better word - very careful in pointing out how he did not want to vote Pitch, how he was freaked out by other people voting Pitch too (why did you vote him, then?)

I answered already that here.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

next Day immediately making sure he posts explanations as to why did he vote him, yesterDay making a vote when the bandwagon was already running smoothly, making several posts with little substance or lot of uncertainity, like this:

As a matter of fact, I have been rather uncertain. As for why I explained things the way I did, see here.

[Nerwen]

Legate–

I've had this. Once again– I put forward the "Boro theory" early in the day, and did not continue after Greenie pointed out the discrepancy.

I did not "push it" at any point. You, on the other hand, have constantly been repeating that I have been in an apparent attempt to hypnotise the village into thinking this must be the case.

It has gone past the point where I can believe it an innocent mistake.

[Nerwen]

Oh, and similarly the repetition of "she's so jumpy" (i.e. supposedly wolvish.) Yeah, because I argued against you and objected to your weirdly over-the-top aggression. Oh, yes, how very terribly evil of me, Legate.

[Boromir88]

Day 1

First post with substance is #48 and about Pitch.

Thing is, on previous showing, Bom is a very easy target. (Hope you don't mind my saying that, Bom.) Pitch knows this well, even if you don't– which does make me wonder about him, yes it does. And then, his switching to G55, also a novice player with a bit of a history of attracting suspicion– hmmn.

On the other hand, his cases on both of them were sound enough, by Day One standards– and someone had to get the ball rolling...

Looks reasonable. Yes, there is the "suspecting" and "maybe not" look. But it's a fair point on Pitch's actions and looks more like a Lommy flip-flopping, since she brings up a good counter argument.

#52 is

I was pointing out his perhaps opportunistic choice of targets– so yes, I suppose that's "casting suspicion". Is that a problem?

Less material = quicker analysis. It's easier, but lazier. And generally less useful, since mostly you're just pointing out what anyone else could see at a glance.

Nerwen being straight forward. Maybe some have an issue with the tone, but she's never been one to shy away from being blunt.

#60, remarks on the strangeness of the Pitch-wagon and notices G55 mixed up Pitch and Bom. G55 was trying to refer to the time when there was some heat between Bom and me, but it looked like she was saying Pitch and me.

#64, agrees that Kath's vote for sally was suspect and could vote for Kath, because she didn't want a universal bandwagon against Pitch.

I might vote her, simply *because* I don't want a universal bandwaggon – and yeah, her vote was suspect, all right. The only thing I could say about it, really, is that this being *Kath*, she may honestly not realise what you're *supposed* to do on Day One. (Trouble is, looking at Kath tnds to bring Pitch back into it anyway.)

I'll have to wait until I go through Day 2 more thorougly, until I can get a clearer view on the above quote. because I think Nerwen's post here was one of the bigger reasons G55 was suspicious of Nerwen yesterday.

I definitely recall G55 giving "spite" as a reason of voting Pitch on Day 1. So, I don't know how Nerwen stating she didn't want a universal bandwagon, and that Kath's vote did look suspicious looks any worse than G55's Day 1 vote.

Day 2

#87, is Nerwen's conclusions on why TEW was killed. I didn't see much of a conclusion, more a statement of all the possible explanations. It would be a long quote, so here's the post. Although, in this post, she seemed to favor the argument that TEW was killed because the wolves thought he was the seer.

#94, several things here. First she brings up TEW would not have been high on her kill list (Legate questions who would be later, and Nerwen gives it). Again, Nerwen is not one to shy from at least giving blunt answers.

G55 said if the wolves thought TEW was the Ranger or Hunter, they could have just got him lynched. Nerwen replied:

Not really– that kind of thing can backfire pretty badly. Gifteds do have a nasty habit of revealing on the way to the gallows, after all.

And then she tells Legate that this G55 quote looks like nightly wolf communications:

Originally Posted by G55

I am very surprised that they killed TEW. He got a couple votes yesterDay, and with a bit of persuation could have easily been lynched toDay. My conclusion: why should they waste a Nightkill on him when they could have easily got rid of him the next Day? Did they really think he was a gifted? Or, perhaps, just to stirr something up....

If this was the beginning of Nerwen's suspicions against G55 then I think it looks reasonable. Granted, Nerwen is a sly player to accuse reasonably, especially when someone is getting as crazy acting as G55 got yesterday.

Oh man, I forgot how long these took. If it does any good I'll continue going through them, but Nerwen's posted more than anyone else and I'm getting a bit exhausted.

My conclusion before the end of the Day 2 shenanigans is Nerwen's been blunt and combative (as usual), so doesn't tell me much on her role. Although, I hardly think G55 had good suspicions against Nerwen and so I'm not understanding the suspicions now. But let me look at Greenie, Legate and some other reasons given today more.

(I better have crossed since I came back after Inzil's post following Legate's flood posting)

[Kitanna]

Well, I need to vote now and go to bed. I've been wrong about three of my highest suspects. I hope I get it right this time.

++ Legate

I've stated my reasons earlier. I'm sorry I don't have time to restate them.

[Boromir88]

I believe the count is...

Greenie ---> Nerwen
Kath ---> Greenie
Legate ---> Nerwen (2)
Kitanna ---> Legate

This is not going to be a fun 2+ hours. I was hoping to spend it figuring out if there's a wolf between Nerwen and Legate, which one is it? Or if they're distracted by being so suspicious of each other. But second guessing and doubting if sally dreamed 2 live innocent (Kath and Kitanna).

For at least the rest of the night, I'm just going to continue assuming Kit and Kath were dreamed innocent. Should I bother with another look do to second guessing?

Put a gun to my head and I can remember that Nerwen hasn't tried to appeal to my opinion, or "get me on her side" if you will. She's really just been consistant and blunt, and asked for opinions at times. And I really don't see Legate's point here:

Originally Posted by Legate

There are these "pre-emptive" words. Once again one could start asking if a Wolf would so "bluntly" post something like that. But then again, why would an innocent say that, too?

I have no doubt Nerwen would be blunt enough to say that as a wolf, but you're really taking that quote out of context. I remember G55 saying something like "Oh and when I'm lynched and proven innocent, what will your excuse be?" (yes, paraphrasing, but that was the gist). To which Nerwen replied quoted above.

Why would an innocent say that? Well, it looks rather true to me for one. G55 was willingly trying to look like a wolf. I think what it is, Legate, is you just weren't at the DL yesterday. Can you not see the frustration those antics caused? At least, on my part, I had spent over an hour trying to figure it out, but G55 started bouncing around saying she's a wolf and all but mocking us to go ahead and vote.

And I remember Nerwen was beginning to doubt because G55 had been setting up some sort of grand reveal, but she never did reveal. So, yes, I completely understand the frustration, and from my perspective G55 dug her own grave very well, which is how I was reading Nerwen's comments.

Now maybe if she did reveal it wouldn't have made much of a difference, considering the voting at that point. But if she said she was the hunter, I would not have expected a wolf to fake-reveal as the hunter at that time. And would have started trying to see if there was any chance to save G55. But G55 didn't seem to want saving.

[Inziladun]

Greenie-->Nerwen (1)
Kath-->Greenie (1)
Legate-->Nerwen (2)
Kitanna-->Legate (1)

So, no one's interested in voting Kitanna? I'd like to vote for her, but if no one follows up it'll be a waste.

Of the three that have votes, I can't see myself voting for Greenie. I just don't see much there that's terribly worrisome.

I can see the point some have made about Legate trying to stretch things.

Sally had Nerwen down as one she was concerned about, but if it was only based on normal thread observation, that doesn't mean much. Still, the opinion of a known innocent is at least trustworthy. I just don't know.

x/d with Boro

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Zil

Well, let's see. I don't see anything really noteworthy about Greenie's list there. It is a bit curious that while Sally had expressed suspicion of you, it was Greenie who had voted for you Day 2. It doesn't mean I don't have my doubts about you, but it's food for thought.

But compare this to Greenie's own rather convoluted reasoning behind voting me toDay. According to her own logic, she should have been killed ahead of Sally.

EDIT:X'd with Zil and Boro.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

So, no one's interested in voting Kitanna? I'd like to vote for her, but if no one follows up it'll be a waste.

I take it you didn't see the rather obvious statement of Kit being on her side that I quoted?

I think it came when I crossed on your post detailing your suspicions against Kit.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But compare this to Greenie's own rather convoluted reasoning behind voting me toDay. According to her own logic, she should have been killed ahead of Sally.

Yes, I know. Greenie just hasn't seemed fishy to me though. And it's very difficult to trust you.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I take it you didn't see the rather obvious statement of Kit being on her side that I quoted?

I think it came when I crossed on your post detailing your suspicions against Kit.

Yes, and I responded by saying I disagreed with your conclusion. I thought it had the look of a throwaway remark about GoT.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Zil

And it's very difficult to trust you.

Well, I could certainly return the complement...

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Yes, and I responded by saying I disagreed with your conclusion. I thought it had the look of a throwaway remark about GoT.

It may have been– I don't find it as conclusive as Boro seems to, because of the context– but all the same, Sally knew herself to be the Seer when she made it. That ought to count for something.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, I could certainly return the complement...

No doubt.

Trouble is, I don't know about Legate either. And I have to decide soon.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Yes, and I responded by saying I disagreed with your conclusion. I thought it had the look of a throwaway remark about GoT.

Ahh missed that post. My bad. Still, if sally-seer were to slip in a hint somewhere. Don't you think a literary or movie reference would be a sally way to go about it?

Also, you shouldn't really discard the fact that the seer made a stronger statement about knowing Kit was on her side more than any statement regarding anyone else.

[Laeko_Randalis]

Boromir seems to have maintained logical arguments this entire time, and has come to earn my trust. If he's a werewolf, he deserves to kill me for how legit he's made himself look.

Nerwen is seeming a bit suspicious in terms of projecting a sort of argumentative vibe, but then again, most of what I've been noticing in terms of her posts is defending herself, and when everyone's paranoid (which we all should be), that's at least somewhat understandable.

After all, yesterday I'd been noticing Nerwen and Galadriel acting very similarly, and then I went and voted to lynch the blasted Hunter! Given none of the wolves have yet been lynched, my immediate conclusion for losing two gifteds in one night was "well, we're definitely screwed now."

[Nerwen]

Well then. If we all hold our votes much longer, I die by default anyway. That would be very bad.

So–

++Legate.

[Inziladun]

So let's see, if I want my vote to count, it seems I have to vote for:

1. Nerwen, who I have reservations about, but who admittedly as a wolf should have been more worried about Greenie as a Seer than Sally;

2. Legate, who does seem to be reaching a bit to make some of his points, but has also received a vote from someone I'm not comfortable with (Kit);

or

3. Greenie, who hasn't stood out as particularly suspicious thus far, beyond the fixation on Nerwen.

x/d with Nerwen

[Inziladun]

I have got to go to bed.

++Legate

If he turns out innocent, that's not going to help Kit in my eyes.

[Boromir88]

Anyone else here to cast a vote...Laeko? Azura?

[Laeko_Randalis]

++Nerwen

So, who shall break the tie?

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Laeko_Randalis

++Nerwen

So, who shall break the tie?

Thanks, just when I thought you were looking fairly innocent.

[Boromir88]

This is going to make me nervous, I really don't trust Inzil, and his vote for Legate, plus general interaction with Nerwen looks frankly...odd.

But I rather think Nerwen looks pretty innocent.

Agghhh

++Legate

[Nerwen]

Gosh, I hope neither of the newbies are evil– they've posted so little we'll never get anything on them.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Ugh. Power outage combined with time change = a Shasta who falls asleep.

You lynched Legate, and he was simply an Ordo. I find myself updating from my phone every time, now, for some reason.

Night starts.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

During the night, Kitanna (Ordo) was eaten by the wolves.

Day starts now.

Also, for those who are wondering, people alive are:

Kath
Boro
Nerwen
Greenie
Inziladun
Laeko_Rundalis
Azura

Both newbies are in danger of being modkilled.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Both newbies are in danger of being modkilled.

Why? Laeko voted yesterDay.

–Anyway. I am getting most frustrated by this game. Obviously, the wolves have been very clever, with their divide-and-conquer tactics, but I think it only fair to say they've had both luck and help from the village (what with the Hunter deciding to go kamikaze, and all– still scratching my head over that one). Not only that, but the number of ordos who have allowed themselves to be manipulated into going after me... well, again, frustrating. I mean, I suppose I should be flattered everyone fears me so much, but having to be on the defensive Day after Day, and to no purpose, is just draining.

So, who has been doing the manipulating? I was thinking in the Night that, as far as this "get Nerwen" business goes, they're likely taking different sides, with one wolf encouraging suspicion against me and another taking my part, at least to the extent of "saving" me by voting other innocents. Boro+Kit or Zil+Greenie seemed likely pairings, with Wolf 3 one of the newbies. And now that Kit is dead, it's looking like the second option.

Mind you, I can't rule out something more complicated– for example Boro and Zil could be doing a particularly fine, elaborate and well-acted wolf-on-wolf routine. Or we could even be in one of those ill-fated madhouse villages where everyone slaughters each other with only minimal and subtle lupine encouragement. This does happen. All the same, Zil and Greenie are, as of yesterDay, also the players with the most points against them individually.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Why? Laeko voted yesterDay.

–Anyway. I am getting most frustrated by this game. Obviously, the wolves have been very clever, with their divide-and-conquer tactics, but I think it only fair to say they've had both luck and help from the village (what with the Hunter deciding to go kamikaze, and all– still scratching my head over that one). Not only that, but the number of ordos who have allowed themselves to be manipulated into going after me... well, again, frustrating. I mean, I suppose I should be flattered everyone fears me so much, but having to be on the defensive Day after Day, and to no purpose, is just draining.

So, who has been doing the manipulating? I was thinking in the Night that, as far as this "get Nerwen" business goes, they're likely taking different sides, with one wolf encouraging suspicion against me and another taking my part, at least to the extent of "saving" me by voting other innocents. Boro+Kit or Zil+Greenie seemed likely pairings, with Wolf 3 one of the newbies. And now that Kit is dead, it's looking like the second option.

Mind you, I can't rule something more complicated– for example Boro and Zil could be doing a particularly fine, elaborate and well-acted wolf-on-wolf routine. Or we could even be in one of those ill-fated madhouse villages where everyone slaughters each other with only minimal and subtle lupine encouragement. This does happen. All the same, Zil and Greenie are, as of yesterDay, also the players with the most points against them individually.

I must have missed that. Sorry, Laeko!

Azura, however, has posted all of one time on this thread. Shasta v. unhappy.