Game thread - Werewolf C - The Father Christmas Murders

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Ghostly voice: It's NerwEn!

*goes back to being dead*

For a second I could have sworn that I wasn't the only ghost currently in Christmas Town!

Ahem, it must have been my imagination.

My current plan is to examine possible wolf pack configurations. During this I will from time to time be considering each person's reaction to people I know to be innocent (Boro, Nerwen, and myself) and to people I consider very likely to be innocent (G55) with a view to seeing whether they and Legate might be working together to lay suspicions.

...And in the end I only managed to go over two people, and it's not as if I looked in depth at every post of the first possibility. This is so time consuming.

G55 and Legate

I still need to consider this one . This could work if...it was all a plan to have G55 gain our trust and slowly pick us off. A very elaborate plan. Since Legate did turn out to be a wolf, I don't think it's possible for G55 to be the Cobbler, because something like this would need to be planned via private communication and also because it would be plain ridiculous for a Cobbler to do this.

No. No way. If this is true then the wolves deserve to win. I just don't believe it. If anyone has an analysis they think shows otherwise, I'll definitely listen, but right now the provisional conclusion is that G55 is innocent. Would a wolves really choose to halve their pack on Day 2? No.

Eonwe and Legate

Page 1, Day 1 - No interaction or mentions of each other. Legate posts but Eonwe isn't there yet.

Page 2, Day 1 - Eonwe arrives, says his time has been limited. Legate cross posts and in list of current notes on everyone says "Steve - strangely absent."

Eonwe gives a list of current suspicions.
Thinks G55 looks good so far.
Mixed views about me.
Not sure what to make of Nerwen due to lack of posting.
Thinks Boro doesn't feel like the innocent Boro he's used to.
Thinks Legate asked useful questions but those don't speak for his innocence or guilt, and considers Cobblerhood.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

People I'd rather not for just yet:
Legate
Morsul
G55

People I need to see more of before I begin to make any sort of judgement:
Shasta
Sally
Nerwen

Page 3, Day 1 - Eonwe says he doesn't suspect me of Cobblerhood, but that doesn't mean he thinks I'm innocent. Says of Legate that "I'm not really finding him that innocent now that I look over him" and is not inclined to vote for him that Day because he's generating discussion.

Eonwe considers the possibility of a Boro-Legate pack but isn't sure they'd be that obvious when there are only two of them.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Other than those, I could potentially see myself going for Lommy, McC or Sally. Coppermirror or Nerwen could be possibilities, but only if the other option is someone I haven't mentioned so far.

edit: I completely forgot about Shasta, which is a bit worrying, but then, his most recent post seems quite good, so I probably won't be voting him toDay.

He then votes Boro, that being the second vote out of four for him. Shasta comments that it looks as if that vote was carefully set up over the course of the Day, and Eonwe replies that it was more that he'd prefer voting for Boro than Sally or Zil, both of whom were on two votes at the time he voted.

Page 3, Day 2 - Eonwe talks to McCaber about a few things.

Page 4, Day 2 - Eonwe banters with some people. He then goes through a summary of people's suspicions in the game so far. It's useful, so I'll link it: http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=144

I find his wording summarising Legate's post #65 interesting. "VERY light suspicion of CM".

Eonwe then abstains on voting for the Day and leaves.

Legate then shows up with some views. Of Eonwe he says...

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

From new things toDay I am feeling somewhat uncertain about Steve (his replies to McCab), though that's more just the air of it, nothing specific.

In post #157 I consider and provisionally discard the possibility of a Legate-Eonwe pack.

Page 5, Day 2 - Legate goes through his suspicions. He says "I was hoping for more from Steve, and I still hope he will show up." and says similar things about a few others. Then Legate goes through another suspicions list.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Steve - I would just hope to see him around more. On re-read, I don't seem to recall what seemed so strange to me about his posting earlier. Actually, his posts have been toDay largely only short things, some lists etc. with not much content altogether. Some people said his vote yesterDay could have been a Wolf jumping on a bandwagon, though again, he could have jumped on either of the existing ones by the time he voted, unless he didn't care and/or there was a Wolf being voted for (though since there are only two Wolves, they would not have been both if Steve was one as well). All in all, needs more input, that's about it. But watching.

And that's the last mention of Eonwe before Legate left.

I doubt that those two were in a pack together, but I can't rule it out. The backtracking from Legate in the last post mentioning Eonwe confuses me a bit. It might be that Legate was initially trying to lay bait for later suspicions of Eonwe (with his talk about an air of uncertainty about him) but then thought better of it for the time being.

It seems a bit odd that Eonwe decided to not vote for Legate partially on the basis of the latter's reasonable activity level, and Eonwe did vote for Boro-innocent. On the other hand, Eonwe has been reasonably suspicious of Legate throughout, and he wasn't the only one, so it's not as if he was being suspicious towards a totally unlikely person.

I do still think that given the Day 1 voting, it would be strange for there to be an Eonwe-Legate pack.

And just now, I wonder if I've found a reason for why Legate took back his vague suspicion of Eonwe later in the Day. The post after Legate gave those suspicions was the one where I decided that an Eonwe-Legate pack would be unlikely. Thinlomien later said that was fair reasoning. Possibly, Legate wanted to back away from laying the groundwork for an Eonwe lynch right then. Might be true, might not. I'm a bit too sleepy to be able to look at this clearly right now so I'm not sure.

But before I go, while looking at one of Legate's last bunch of posts, this stood out to me a bit:

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Lommy - her thought processes seem similar to mine Now I wonder if I should be worried, but I can't imagine her mentioning that being e.g. a trick aimed only at me to lull me into trusting her or something similarly unlikely. So only in case you found my dead body toMorrow, then perhaps she should be looked at. On a bit more serious note, I really don't see anything suspicious about her so far, she seems to try to make an effort and not really sounding in any way false or anything.

That bit at the start there looks as if it could be a wolf trying to contact someone he thinks is the Cobbler.

And now I'm barely awake and have got to get some sleep. Since I didn't get very far in that analysis, does anyone else want to pick somebody or two and do some analysis of the possibility of them being in a pack with Legate? I'll try to do more when I wake up in the morning, anyway, it's just that at this rate I won't be able to get it done for everyone by the end of the Day.