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"Listen, Hound of Sauron. Gandalf is here. Fly, if you value your foul skin! I will shrivel you from tail to snout, if you come within this ring." Gandalf |
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#1 |
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,038
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I was considering G55, but Coppermirror's vote looks like a straight-up bandwagon attempt.
x/d with Boro
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#2 |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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You're one of the two players I suspected the most toDay (albeit not on great grounds, but I don't have anything better to go by), and I decided not to vote for G55. I want to play straightforwardly here, and not be cowardly by failing to vote for the person I suspect the most, even if that means casting a second vote and perhaps looking suspicious because of that.
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#3 |
Laconic Loreman
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I'm going to be present through the DL, but I can't see much that will change my mind today...
++sally No point in waiting...get a few names out there and see what happens/others decide to do.
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Fenris Penguin
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#4 | |
Blossom of Dwimordene
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,451
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Yes, I can see how she might be a wolf, in which case all or most of the suspicions are justified and likely true. Yes, I can also see her as an innocent making... what's the word? Not slips. Not mistakes. Just saying things that others could turn against you, when it's just a coincidence. I would leave Cop for now, because while she looks like she's bandwagoning, it also looks like she's being bandwagoned. Plus, I haven't changed my mind about Legate. Or my guts feelings. Take your pick. EDIT: xed with Cop and Boro
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You passed from under darkened dome, you enter now the secret land. - Take me to Finrod's fabled home!... ~ Finrod: The Rock Opera |
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#5 | |
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,038
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Quote:
I don't see how Coppermirror is the subject of a bandwagon, unless I've missed something.
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#6 |
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,038
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Legate does seem a little off, as in a little more detached and rushed-feeling, and I disagree with his suspicion of Boro. Still, I don't know that's enough grounds for a vote at this point.
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#7 |
Blossom of Dwimordene
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,451
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Not in the sense that she's gaining votes, but that peope are sticking suspicion stickers onto her one after the other. A bandwagon of suspicion before the bandwagon of votes.
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You passed from under darkened dome, you enter now the secret land. - Take me to Finrod's fabled home!... ~ Finrod: The Rock Opera |
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#8 | |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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A cobbler and a wolf might go for it, though, if they thought that I was innocent. It's not long before deadline and would be a good time for it, after they'd seen a bunch of posts from me and I'd already cast my vote, which leaves an opening to go for. It's also possible that there could be a Cobbler thinking that Inzil is a wolf and trying to save him, but that might be overthinking things, and it wouldn't necessarily make Inzil any more likely to be a wolf. |
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#9 | |||||||
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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I don't really care for Cop's reason for suspecting G55, and I'm not sure I understand her reason for Inzil. Mind explaining, Cop? Quote:
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV Last edited by Shastanis Althreduin; 12-22-2012 at 09:22 PM. Reason: X'ed with Cop. |
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#10 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Skyrim, again.
Posts: 820
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I've given her an hour, and still nothing. ++sally Let that be a warning to those who would remain silent.
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#11 | ||||
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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I explained both of those here: Quote:
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Inzil's posts made me feel suspicious and didn't appear to say much. Since the point I said I intended to vote for him, he's been fairly hard to read and hasn't done anything to change my opinion much. At the very least, voting for the person I suspected the most at the time has allowed me to look at the behaviour of people who have posted afterwards. Better to vote then and allow time for discussion. I hate it when voting comes down to the last minute. Quote:
Edit: cross-posted with Shasta, Boro and B55. |
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#12 | |
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,038
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x/d with Cop and Shasta
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#13 |
Flame Imperishable
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Right here
Posts: 3,928
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I'm currently considering the idea of Boro-Legate pack, but I'm not sure they'd be that obvious when there're only two of them.
Other than those, I could potentially see myself going for Lommy, McC or Sally. Coppermirror or Nerwen could be possibilities, but only if the other option is someone I haven't mentioned so far. edit: I completely forgot about Shasta, which is a bit worrying, but then, his most recent post seems quite good, so I probably won't be voting him toDay.
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#14 | ||||||
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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Wow, we got lucky there. Good work, ranger.
I have to leave now, but I wrote up a post last Night. Looks as if I don't need to edit it in response to someone getting killed overNight after all. I'm just going to post it unabridged and head off to do Christmassy things. Unabridged post: What a tragedy! I'm terrified. To think that Boro the Reindeer and [name] have been killed too. Truly, we must work harder to erase the Doom of Christmastown. I think we should beware those who haven't said their piece...but nobody seems to listen to ghosts around here. Anyway, analysis. I wrote this up overNight, so it isn't up to date and may contain errors. I also didn't have time to finish it, so it only covers a few people, and I'll be so annoyed if one of those gets killed off overNight. Ideally I'd have looked at everyone. But for the people I have covered, I've got a few questions I'd like to have cleared up. A pity that we lost Boro. Given our odds, it was quite likely that we'd lose an innocent yesterDay, so we can at least be happy that we lost an ordo rather than a gifted. But it really sucks, because Boro looked innocent and was being useful. He was actively participating and even suggesting new ways for people to discuss things. I was a bit curious about people's choices for suspicion yesterDay, so I went through and counted how many posts each person made. Here's the post count from yesterDay (and a vote count, although not in order of timing): Sally: 1 post (and no vote!) Shasta: 10 posts (Voted Boro) G55: 14 (Voted Legate) Coppermirror: 14 (Voted Inzil) Eonwe: 4 (Voted Boro) Morsul: 6 (and no vote!) Nerwen: 2 (and no vote!) Inzil: 14 (Voted Boro) Boro: 14 (Voted Sally) McCaber: 6 (Voted Sally) Thinlomien: 7 (Voted Inzil) Legate: 7 (Voted Boro) Accordingly, if we were simply going by voting for the most visible players, the biggest targets should have been...G55, me, Inzil, and Boro-innocent. All of whom came under a decent quantity of suspicion yesterDay, for one reason or another, and Boro who got voted off. I think we've messed up Day 1 rather badly in this regard. On the other hand, what were we supposed to do – suspect people who hadn't posted yet much? McCaber and Boro-innocent both ended up voting for Sally. They were both criticised for doing so, and I can see why. But, maybe they were right to take that tactic. Three people haven't even voted. All of those people were among those who didn't post much, so there's little to go on there. Morsul mentioned in the admin post that RL things would cause problems for his participation, so I'll give him a free pass on that (although since he's also not going to be around much toDay, heaven help us if he's a wolf). Nerwen and Sally, though... Given that three people didn't vote and that many people didn't post much at all, toDay I will be very wary of the possibility that all of the wolves could be among the non-voting and not-posting-much people. 5 people posted a decent amount, and 4 of those survived. 7 people remain who didn't post nearly as much. Inzil Inzil's voting yesterDay was probably, as he said, to save himself. At the time he voted, three people were tied on 2 votes: Inzil, Sally, and Boro. He said that this was because nobody was going for his top suspect – but he never said who his top suspect was. From what I can tell, his suspects late in the Day were G55, me, and Legate. (That's interesting, incidentally, as Boro-innocent listed those three as people he thought were up to some sort of scheme together.) Inzil started to suspect me at the point when I said I was voting for him, thinking it was a bandwagon. The reason Inzil appeared to suspect G55 was because she was wanting to pick over the are-they-coded posts in the open. For Legate, the reasoning is as quoted below. None of these seem totally unreasonable reasons, given the low amount of serious discussion yesterDay. Quote:
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I'm not sure whether I still suspect Inzil. Going through his later posts in more detail and at my leisure, there's actually nothing in particular there which stands out as suspicious. Hmm. Okay, no. I'll revise my opinion: I don't find Inzil nearly as suspicious toDay as I did yesterDay when I voted. If I was voting right now, I wouldn't vote for him (I'd probably vote for McCaber or even a submarine). But this isn't the same as thinking that he's innocent. Though seeing Inzil's reaction was helpful, I do regret that he had to vote for someone else to save himself from a three way tie, since if he is a wolf that would have been great cover for his voting choice. McCaber Quote:
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And anyone else – is this McCaber's usual playing style? Sally – nothing to go on. Didn't vote, and only posted once. Nerwen – hardly anything to go on. Didn't vote, and only posted twice. Morsul – very little to go on. Didn't vote, and posted 6 times, mostly without substance at the bantering end of the game. Legate: Initially, Legate wanted us to look for Cobblers and people trying to respond to them. He didn't have a huge range of suspicions, but did suspect Boro. Legate's suspicion of Boro-innocent's behaviour was hard to follow, and he ended up voting for Boro-innocent based on that. The vote was the first vote of the Day. If his suspicions were genuine, thinking that Boro was not acting like himself and being “really strangely noncommited at first and somewhat shifty now “ would be sufficient grounds for a vote. But I can't quite understand why Boro seemed shifty to Legate. Legate, could you explain it a bit more, as concisely as possible? On gut feelings yesterDay, I had considered Legate suspicious, but now I'm not so sure. But I would like to know more about the suspicion of Boro, even though Boro said that Legate's in the habit of voting for him. In response to some things yesterDay which I didn't have time to comment on then: Quote:
If I have time later I'll look at yesterDay's posts for Shasta, G55, Eonwe and Thinlomien too, although by the time I get around to it it's likely that we'll have a bunch of new things to analyse. I'm too busy toDay for much. ![]() I should note that I do find it suspicious when people show up close to the end without seeming to try contributing beforehand. Going by that on its own, Eonwe looks the worst. I don't want to lead everyone off on a wild goose chase, but I'm still really confused about what Boromir was talking about yesterDay when he thought that there was something going on between me, G55 and Legate. Unfortunately he's not here to answer. I thought that maybe he was the cobbler when he posted that, but since he's a proven ordo now, his suspicion must have been genuine. And I have no idea what it could have been based on, which is annoying. Does anybody else have a guess? Happy Christmas Eve to you all. ![]() |
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#15 | ||
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Skyrim, again.
Posts: 820
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Werewolves vs. Fishmen. The battle of the century. |
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#16 | |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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Rolling up my long, ghostly sleeves now...
I may be dragged out somewhere for an outing this afternoon, and I'm not sure when that will end, so there's a risk I'll miss the deadline. If I can decide on a vote in the next hour or so, I'll place it. Which means I've got to try to get through all this really quickly. Quote:
Of these: Legate - hasn't shown up yet toDay, and so hasn't been able to answer my question asking for clarification about the reasons for finding Boro suspicious. I'm a bit in limbo on this issue, accordingly. Eonwe - had been considering the possibility of a Boro-Legate pack. Other than that I can't seem to find his reasoning for his Boro vote. This is a bit unfortunate. Eonwe, why did you vote for Boro? (...Based on what he said earlier, there's a big risk he won't be around to answer this.) Inzil - says it was because he didn't want to vote for Sally, who mostly hadn't showed up and didn't have an opportunity to defend herself. That's not an unreasonable stance. Shasta - voted right after Inzil did. They posted in the same minute, so it's possible that (a) he thought he was breaking the tie and hadn't seen Inzil's vote, or (b) he did see it, but wasn't prepared to raise up any other candidate (Sally or Inzil ) to three votes and force a tie/he needed to cast a vote. His reasoning is just that Boro should have known better than to vote for somebody who wasn't there. He also didn't want to vote for any of the top three candidates. That's not unreasonable either. It's difficult to draw a conclusion from all this. Legate drew a target on Boro for reasons I don't understand, and Eonwe followed up with a second vote based on reasoning I can't find (other than the possibility of a Boro-Legate pack). For a moment I'll throw around the possibility of a Legate-Eonwe pack (and guys, I'm not accusing you here, just imagining scenarios). Legate apparently has a habit of voting for Boro early on in games. Knowing that and that Boro is innocent, they could use that as cover for a Boro vote, and Eonwe could follow on with it...But if that was planned out, would Eonwe omit to give any firm reasoning? Wolf-Eonwe wouldn't want to say "I suspect him for the same reason Legate does", but I find it hard to believe that someone would skimp on finding another reason. Provisionally, I'm going to conclude it's not likely that we have a Legate-Eonwe pack here. It's also just not likely that two wolves would vote for the same person when they're only a two-wolf pack. Ah, and I see as I write this that Legate has posted with his reasoning for the Boro vote. I'll have to read that. Nice pictures, G55! |
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#17 |
Blossom of Dwimordene
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,451
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Cop, the Modess has kindly extended the Day for another day. You don't have to worry about voting.
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You passed from under darkened dome, you enter now the secret land. - Take me to Finrod's fabled home!... ~ Finrod: The Rock Opera Last edited by Galadriel55; 12-25-2012 at 04:30 PM. Reason: spelling |
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#18 | |
Blossom of Dwimordene
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,451
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Quote:
![]() I will leave that for Cop to answer herself. But I must say, I will consider the points you bring up, Legate. I'm glad you both enjoyed the pictures. ![]()
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You passed from under darkened dome, you enter now the secret land. - Take me to Finrod's fabled home!... ~ Finrod: The Rock Opera |
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#19 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
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Still find McCab suspicious but obviously now that I have time I may find my vte unfortunate, as one big purpose of the vote was to avoid modfiring befre DL tonight(as I thought it was still tonight and whether or not I'd be back was in question...) I hope this post is straight forward enough if not: Silti löytää McCab epäluuloinen, mutta ilmeisesti nyt minulla on aikaa saatan löydän VTE valitettavaa, sillä yksi iso tarkoituksena äänestys oli välttää modfiring befre DL tänä iltana (koska ajattelin, että se oli vielä tänä iltana ja onko olisin takaisin oli kyseessä ...)*** ***Courtesy of Google-Translate
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Morsul the Resurrected |
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#20 |
Blossom of Dwimordene
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,451
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Modlote posted it only after your vote, I think.
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You passed from under darkened dome, you enter now the secret land. - Take me to Finrod's fabled home!... ~ Finrod: The Rock Opera |
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#21 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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My own problem with #177 is that it takes such a very long time to make a few, very obvious points that could have been made in a few lines. Not that they're bad points, mind. McCaber's vote for Sally *is* peculiar– even, if that's not too loaded a word, "hypocritical", coming from someone who had barely been around himself. And his subsequent explanations don't really explain anything. Wolfish, though? It seems too clearly (and pointlessly) a "bad" vote for a wolf to make, unless there was a very good reason. In this case, the only one I could think of would be a Zil-McCaber pack, but I'll have to read through things to see how likely that might be. I'll have more to say later, but I have to go now. EDIT: fixed accidentally deleted sentence.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. Last edited by Nerwen; 12-26-2012 at 02:05 AM. |
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#22 | |
Blossom of Dwimordene
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,451
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You passed from under darkened dome, you enter now the secret land. - Take me to Finrod's fabled home!... ~ Finrod: The Rock Opera |
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#23 |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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Back, reading, and trying to put together a current chart categorising suspicions. Looks as if worryingly little has happened since I was here last.
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