WWJ X: Hithlum Zydeco Blues; Hísilómë in Hísimë

[Nogrod]

Okay.

I failed to fall into sleep (could there be any reason in the fact that I have stayed up too late for a couple of days in a row?).

So first this, and even if the first part is basically to Eomer – as I promised him to answer his question – I think there are generally interesting things at the end at least:

So Eomer, you asked me:

Nogrod, may I ask just what makes the things most other players have been saying so much more fantastical and important than what I have said? It's true, I've not said too much. Though there may be much to think about on Day One, there's only so much original stuff any one player can inject into proceedings.

Well, I wasn’t actually saying that most other players made some fantastic posting... on the contrary, I think we all were pretty miserable on Day1 – and well, you can see the results.

As far as I can see, I have hit upon an idea (about Morm's vote) that no-one else has. So how does that make me "not saying anything"?

Yes, you “hit” on the Morm’s vote.

And yes, we all make mistakes. I haven't heard of any WW-player with 100% record on voting or arguing...


But you made me think of it more openly: Glirdan did seem suspicious at first. But as You noted, he does seem like it most of the time and gets lynched very fast.

But were you a wolf, that would have been an easy trick indeed... and really, your "case" against Morm was a little pathetic – you should admit it yourself, being the Snoopy-knight!

So you said something in your first post...

But after that your second post protested Valier’s list for technicalities & told Form that we might still see something...

And on your third post you queried me about why you’re not a “fantastic” poster in my mind.

I wouldn’t say that is a much of a participation... even for a Day1.

And I've deliberately kept my posts short and clear so that people might be tempted to consider what's in them. Too many words muddy the waters.

I have seen you more verbal than this...

Sometimes too little words muddy the waters. You know how the political populists work: take a word or two and repeat them – and when someone actually wiser comes to say that the truth is a bit more complicated, you shout to him / her: “Too many words muddy the waters!”

So sorry, that’s not a simple truth. (Yes, you can muddy the waters with a stream of babbling, but so you can with oversimplifying things)

--------------

But what actually makes me weary of you right now is that, what you have done is trying to make a case of a known good player (now known innocent - for wolves known to be one from the beginning) with weak or nonexistent grounds, and not actually participating in the game. And you were at the place 20 minutes before the deadline, and you stood silent. Why? As a wolf I understand you should stay away from the fireline. But as an innocent? I know you are not a coward who would just fade yourself away from hard decisions. So what were you doing at the last moments? You were there...

And surely, speaking on behalf of Glirdan could be very convenient for a wolf on Day1, as he would be lynched more sooner than later anyhow, as you testimony yourself:

Glirdan is about as lynchable as they get

And the wolves are the only ones who can know one's innocense for sure...

Surely, this is not an accusation, it's a suspicion.

[Nogrod]

It took me a cigarette to see this.

- Eomer made a case against Morm because he believed Glirdy innocent.
- Eomer was online at the thread 20 minutes before the deadline when Glirdan and Form of whom he had only said this:

Formendacil, your stance is just so puzzling. There's oodles to think about here. You just have to wait until quite near the end of Day One.

were tied in votes (Form having the first three). But there were two people who had not voted yet - of which at least I had said that I would be back.
- So why didn't he do anything? I could have voted for Glirdy and make him a deceased - and he believed him innocent! Well because he's a wolf and had no worries, everything was going fine for him? He had nothing at stake there. Had he been innocent, he had been a bit alarmed, at least to mention it, or to defend Glirdy whom he thought innocent?

Eomer, you just surpassed Kitanna in my suspicion list... (though I've not forgotten her either)

[Valier]

Wow sorry I've been gone for most of the day...(recovering from yesterdays R.L shenanigans ) It has been fairly quiet all around which is a little odd and hard to get a clear perspective on everyone, but since there is not much to read through my opinions so far are fairly limited in suspicions so far. I have gone through my list of suspect from yesterdays fairly random list that I posted since there is more info to add to my thoughts on everyone. OK so this is what I have so far on everyone...

Roa: Seems to be her usual self, she stands up and faces her actions and argues if needed to prove her points, as usual..nothing too odd from her, yet.

Mac: Seems a little jumpy, but brings up good points about Roa, I trust him little as of now, but he is not high on my suspect list.

Mith: Haven't heard too much from her yet and her last minute vote change could be a good cover to make her look good.

Jenny: Oh Jenny...I always have a hard time with guessing your role...you are a crafty one, but are useful when proven innocent, but since our seer is gone there is no way to be sure, so I am weary of her for now.

Nogrod: Well Nogrod, I too am up and smoking, which is what an Ordo would be doing, trying to figure out who the bad guys are so we can rid us of them quickly, so I tend to think you innocent.

Morm: Well you are the one and only proven innocent, and you will more than likely be killed tonight, so if you have some thoughts, you should share them in case you do go.

Eomer: Now you dear Eomer... well I just don't know...there is something odd about you and I don't know why. I have high suspicion of you and want to hear some more from you.

Kitanna: She too has been bleeping on my radar, not too highly yet, but I am wary.

Kuru: I do not know your style well yet and you seem suspicious to me as well, your reaction to my list was what caught my eye.

I hope this helps...I know this is vague, but when is it not So take this for what you will. Hopefully we get a bit more talkative, so we can flush us out a wolf today.

[mormegil]

Well this will be my last post for a little while.

Nogrod, I'm not sure what to make of you. I actually believe you are innocent and make a great case against Eomer. Before reading your case I was thinking some of the same thoughts and so to see you echo what I've been thinking makes me believe in you.

I'm still wary of Valier.

Roa seems guilty to me, but I've been known to be wrong too often to count

Mac does seem a bit jumpy but could it simply be neophyte jitters?

Jenny comes out yelling her defense which raises my suspicion of her, Roa did the same and it never sits well with me.

Eomer is a wolf!

Mith is innocent!

Kitanna is one on whom I have no reading but I will leave that to Nogrod, as I believe him innocent.

Kuru is one from whom I would like to hear more as I am moderately suspicious of him.

My top 5 suspects in order are:

1. Eomer
2. Valier
3. Roa
4. Jenny
5. Kuru

Kuru is put on the list only because I have not heard a sufficient amount to make a proper assement. He could go up or down depending upon what I hear.

Likely I will vote Eomer today and recommend a Valier lynching tomorrow. But I will be dead and likely not heeded as things may change as new discussion is presented.

[Macalaure]

... and they're probably right. Few has been said or done (except by mainly Nogrod) yet and there is few to go on for me so far. The suspicions I have are vague at best.


proven innocent are mormegil and, at least to me, myself.

Nogrod and Jenny feel innocent to me as yet, but that may change rapidly.

I cannot put Valier anywhere, thus keeping up the tradition.

The ones I need to read more of before I can form an opinion about them are Mithalwen, Eomer and Kitanna.

I'm still slightly suspicious of Roa, and his last post made Kuru blink on my radar.

Originally Posted by said Kuruharan

However, from my perspective, things look pretty bad. The reason being that I have combed Signore Formendacil’s posts and found no evidence of Seerness until the last post (although he was pretty consistent in saying that morm was innocent, just not definite about it until the end). The upshot of this is I’m not sure how much we can read into the people who were going after him. That just needs to be said.

Well, of course Form didn't make his seerness so clear - he's not suicidal. If it had been clear, presumably no wolf would have bothered voting for him. Instead they would have silently finished him off in the night. His being a seer was not obvious and this is good for us, because the reasons given for his lynching were intentionally or unintentionally wrong. If we can sever the two, we might catch a wolf, but I have doubts that we can.

Originally Posted by that Dwarven Shade, again

Macalaure seems a bit defensive. Now, I’m always an admirer of a strong defense. But, really, he seems a bit tense.

I am not defensive. Not at all! And I am not tense.

[JennyHallu]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Well, of course Form didn't make his seerness so clear - he's not suicidal. If it had been clear, presumably no wolf would have bothered voting for him. Instead they would have silently finished him off in the night. His being a seer was not obvious and this is good for us, because the reasons given for his lynching were intentionally or unintentionally wrong. If we can sever the two, we might catch a wolf, but I have doubts that we can.

Mac: Form declared himself when he asserted Morm's innocence. The wolves killed him because they knew he was the seer.

Honestly, this makes me fairly confident of your innocence. I don't think a wolf is likely to pretend neither he nor his fellows picked up on Form's last-second declaration.

[Mithalwen]

Can't really post now. But I suspect Nogrod most partly for the reasons I stupidly deleted in my vote change....

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Well, of course Form didn't make his seerness so clear - he's not suicidal. If it had been clear, presumably no wolf would have bothered voting for him. Instead they would have silently finished him off in the night. His being a seer was not obvious and this is good for us, because the reasons given for his lynching were intentionally or unintentionally wrong. If we can sever the two, we might catch a wolf, but I have doubts that we can.

emphasis mine


Jenny, of course I managed to notice Form revealed himself in his last post (check my first post of toDay), but before, when the votes accumulated, nobody knew of it.

Originally Posted by me

Nogrod and Jenny feel innocent to me as yet, but that may change rapidly.

Indeed, indeed.

[JennyHallu]

Mac: Ok, you were referring to whether we could find wolves in those that voted for Form. Didn't realize that, but it's perfectly clear on a second reading. D'oh!

I'm going to take a look at bandwaggon voters then.

1. Glirdan voted Formendacil (Formendacil 1)
2. Macalaure voted Nogrod(Formendacil 1, Nogrod 1,)
3. Mormegil voted Glirdan (Formendacil 1, Glidan 1, Nogrod 1)
4. Roa voted Formendacil (Formendacil 2, Glirdan 1, Nogrod 1)
5. Eomer voted Mormegil (Formendacil 2, Glirdan 1, Mormegil 1, Nogrod 1)
6. Kitanna voted Glirdan (Formendacil 2, Glirdan 2, Mormegil 1, Nogrod 1 )
7. Valier voted Formendacil (Formendacil 3, Glirdan 2, Mormegil 1 Nogrod 1)
8. Kuru voted Eomer (Formendacil 3, Glirdan 2, Mormegil 1, Eomer 1, Nogrod 1)
9. Jenny voted Kuru (Formendacil 3, Glirdan 2, Mormegil 1, Eomer 1, Kuru 1,Nogrod 1 )
10. Formendacil voted Glirdan (Formendacil 3, Glirdan 3, Mormegil 1, Eomer 1, Kuru 1, Nogrod 1)
11. Nogrod voted Kitanna (Formendacil 3, Glirdan 3, Mormegil 1, Eomer 1, Kuru 1, Kitanna 1, Nogrod 1)
12. Mithalwen voted Glirdan (Formendacil 3, Glirdan 4, Mormegil 1, Eomer 1, Kuru 1, Kitanna 1, Nogrod 1)

So I'm looking at Roa, Kitanna, Valier, and Mith.

I have said before and shall say again: the most suspicious vote to me on a bandwaggon is the second. So Roa and Kitanna automatically look more suspicious to me.

I'm going to try to do an analysis of all four, but I am at work, so bear with me. It may take a while.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Poor dead and unheeded Mormy

My top 5 suspects in order are:

Eomer
Valier
Roa
Jenny
Kuru

I've learned that my instincts are better than my analysis often times. In the last two games I've identified two to three wolves and had them as my top candidates I die and nobody listens to what I had to say. Shortly after this I dropped my suspicion of Eomer so Valier and Roa were on top.

Oh that you would have listened to me

Kitanna looked odd but as I trusted Nogrod and I didn't know what to think of Kitanna I wanted him to take that and he did.

[Formendacil]

This is the first time I've ever made noises at the computer after being killed... noises along the lines of "Idiots! Idiots! Don't lynch him!!! ARGH!"

Yeah... I stand by what I was saying: Idiots!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. Nogrod, I really do not follow you.

You seem to think I'm a wolf because I did nothing to save Glirdan. But why should I try to save Glirdan? I thought him probably innocent, but not definitely innocent — why on Middle-earth would I think him definitely innocent?

And yes, I watched the end of Day One and didn't know what to think of it. I have no idea what you are recommending I should have done. I sat there, and watched those who saw their death in their eyes, and wondered whether they were guilty or not.

You've seen me much more loquacious before — all those times I was a wolf, you mean? My strategy never stays the same. I play according to how the game is going. I had very little worth adding yesterday.

Obviously I was wrong about Mormegil, but I stand by my vote because, at the time, I thought his actions looked wolvish. He saw the first vote of the day, decided that the reasoning was poor, and jumped on it.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Nogrod, you quote me: "Glirdan is about as lynchable as they get."

and construe this as my being certain of Glirdan's innocence. Only a wolf would know about someone's innocence, after all.

Yet, you make a big thing about your "believ[ing] both Form and Glirdan to be innocent." That's why you voted for Kitanna at that crucial end of Day One. Oh why! you lament, was there no-one else around to save the innocent Form and Glirdan? Nogrod, I was around and could have saved Form or Glirdan, but chose not to as such a course of action at that time would not have made sense, considering my knowledge of their (lack of) secrets.

You got quite defensive about the situation you 'were put in'.

"Yes, the question of acting or omitting, the curse of those who vote late... "

I've seen this victim-of-circumstance tactic before, Noggy: I invented it!

When Form suggests you retract your vote, clearly grasping at his short life, you assert that it is the responsibility of those who voted for either Form or Glirdan to make this decision. You could not bring yourself to make this decision, yet you expect me (a Mormegil-voter) to?

Your attack on me today has all the hallmarks of a previous night's strategy, Nogrod.