WWJ X: Hithlum Zydeco Blues; Hísilómë in Hísimë

[JennyHallu]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Well, of course Form didn't make his seerness so clear - he's not suicidal. If it had been clear, presumably no wolf would have bothered voting for him. Instead they would have silently finished him off in the night. His being a seer was not obvious and this is good for us, because the reasons given for his lynching were intentionally or unintentionally wrong. If we can sever the two, we might catch a wolf, but I have doubts that we can.

Mac: Form declared himself when he asserted Morm's innocence. The wolves killed him because they knew he was the seer.

Honestly, this makes me fairly confident of your innocence. I don't think a wolf is likely to pretend neither he nor his fellows picked up on Form's last-second declaration.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. Nogrod, I really do not follow you.

You seem to think I'm a wolf because I did nothing to save Glirdan. But why should I try to save Glirdan? I thought him probably innocent, but not definitely innocent — why on Middle-earth would I think him definitely innocent?

And yes, I watched the end of Day One and didn't know what to think of it. I have no idea what you are recommending I should have done. I sat there, and watched those who saw their death in their eyes, and wondered whether they were guilty or not.

You've seen me much more loquacious before — all those times I was a wolf, you mean? My strategy never stays the same. I play according to how the game is going. I had very little worth adding yesterday.

Obviously I was wrong about Mormegil, but I stand by my vote because, at the time, I thought his actions looked wolvish. He saw the first vote of the day, decided that the reasoning was poor, and jumped on it.

[Mithalwen]

Can't really post now. But I suspect Nogrod most partly for the reasons I stupidly deleted in my vote change....

[Mithalwen]

NogrodI edited first because I hadn't put my vote for you on a separate line.

Tehn I saw Form's statement and desperately tried to change my vote ..I didn't believe Glirdan guilty but it was a prob innocent or a seer to die.

I really wanted you dead because I feel certain you are a wolf. Unfortunately noone was around to turn the tide at that late stage.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Nogrod, you quote me: "Glirdan is about as lynchable as they get."

and construe this as my being certain of Glirdan's innocence. Only a wolf would know about someone's innocence, after all.

Yet, you make a big thing about your "believ[ing] both Form and Glirdan to be innocent." That's why you voted for Kitanna at that crucial end of Day One. Oh why! you lament, was there no-one else around to save the innocent Form and Glirdan? Nogrod, I was around and could have saved Form or Glirdan, but chose not to as such a course of action at that time would not have made sense, considering my knowledge of their (lack of) secrets.

You got quite defensive about the situation you 'were put in'.

"Yes, the question of acting or omitting, the curse of those who vote late... "

I've seen this victim-of-circumstance tactic before, Noggy: I invented it!

When Form suggests you retract your vote, clearly grasping at his short life, you assert that it is the responsibility of those who voted for either Form or Glirdan to make this decision. You could not bring yourself to make this decision, yet you expect me (a Mormegil-voter) to?

Your attack on me today has all the hallmarks of a previous night's strategy, Nogrod.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Well, of course Form didn't make his seerness so clear - he's not suicidal. If it had been clear, presumably no wolf would have bothered voting for him. Instead they would have silently finished him off in the night. His being a seer was not obvious and this is good for us, because the reasons given for his lynching were intentionally or unintentionally wrong. If we can sever the two, we might catch a wolf, but I have doubts that we can.

emphasis mine


Jenny, of course I managed to notice Form revealed himself in his last post (check my first post of toDay), but before, when the votes accumulated, nobody knew of it.

Originally Posted by me

Nogrod and Jenny feel innocent to me as yet, but that may change rapidly.

Indeed, indeed.

[JennyHallu]

Mac: Ok, you were referring to whether we could find wolves in those that voted for Form. Didn't realize that, but it's perfectly clear on a second reading. D'oh!

I'm going to take a look at bandwaggon voters then.

1. Glirdan voted Formendacil (Formendacil 1)
2. Macalaure voted Nogrod(Formendacil 1, Nogrod 1,)
3. Mormegil voted Glirdan (Formendacil 1, Glidan 1, Nogrod 1)
4. Roa voted Formendacil (Formendacil 2, Glirdan 1, Nogrod 1)
5. Eomer voted Mormegil (Formendacil 2, Glirdan 1, Mormegil 1, Nogrod 1)
6. Kitanna voted Glirdan (Formendacil 2, Glirdan 2, Mormegil 1, Nogrod 1 )
7. Valier voted Formendacil (Formendacil 3, Glirdan 2, Mormegil 1 Nogrod 1)
8. Kuru voted Eomer (Formendacil 3, Glirdan 2, Mormegil 1, Eomer 1, Nogrod 1)
9. Jenny voted Kuru (Formendacil 3, Glirdan 2, Mormegil 1, Eomer 1, Kuru 1,Nogrod 1 )
10. Formendacil voted Glirdan (Formendacil 3, Glirdan 3, Mormegil 1, Eomer 1, Kuru 1, Nogrod 1)
11. Nogrod voted Kitanna (Formendacil 3, Glirdan 3, Mormegil 1, Eomer 1, Kuru 1, Kitanna 1, Nogrod 1)
12. Mithalwen voted Glirdan (Formendacil 3, Glirdan 4, Mormegil 1, Eomer 1, Kuru 1, Kitanna 1, Nogrod 1)

So I'm looking at Roa, Kitanna, Valier, and Mith.

I have said before and shall say again: the most suspicious vote to me on a bandwaggon is the second. So Roa and Kitanna automatically look more suspicious to me.

I'm going to try to do an analysis of all four, but I am at work, so bear with me. It may take a while.

[JennyHallu]

#18

This post appeared two after Glirdan's vote for Form. It is mainly an attack on Form, with a brief aside to oppose Morm's watchers plan. Potentially, this could make me feel MUCH better about Roa. Her attack is based on an interpretation of Form's usual Day 1 ennui as insulting, and I won't disagree that it is at least annoying. I feel comfortable when Roa is taking umbrage. Well...more comfortable than when she's reasonable. Roa just makes me nervous. I like that she is declaring herself to be anti-Form from the outset, but not that Form was already a vote candidate before she said a word.

#20

This post is fairly brief. A plea to get on track, and a schedule update. Not really much to say.

#22

A continuation of her discussion with Morm of his plan. This really felt like a comfortable discussion, and not an argument. Honestly, it did not seem that suspicious to me, as I largely agreed with Roa, and she makes it a point to argue against most grand schemes, always.

#33

Seems mostly to be a lament of quiet villages.

#35

Jokes with Nogrod about trusting her. Makes me a little nervous. Then says Valier usually needs a day or two to get in the groove. This corresponds to my own assessment of Valier's weird ability to pinpoint a wolf, so not so suspicious, and Valier had not put forward any list yet, so she's not trying to cover for it being unexpectedly correct. At least it puts no more nor less weight to the Day 1 list Val made. She finishes with a long explanation of her vote for Form rather than Glirdan. Each of these had at this point garnered one vote. She probably gave the best explanation of any of the day one votes, but one thing makes me a little nervous: She said she was deciding between Glirdan and Form, but she had at no point mentioned Glirdy before this. Nogrod had also accrued one vote at this point: If Roa turns out guilty, he is definitely worth a second glance.

#74

A defense of her vote yesterday. Why should she feel defensive? Only Morm said anything against her. On the other hand, a suspicion from a known innocent can carry more weight than perhaps is justified.

In Summary

Roa could really go either way in my mind, but I have definitely seen enough to put her on my suspect list, at least.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

NogrodI edited first because I hadn't put my vote for you on a separate line.
Tehn I saw Form's statement and desperately tried to change my vote ..I didn't believe Glirdan guilty but it was a prob innocent or a seer to die.

Okay. That sounds believable. So no problem with that.

Eomer, I'm not blaming you of not saving Glirdan. What I find suspicious - or should we say convenient for a wolf - is the silence when being around. You could have said: "Hi, here I am, what shall we do as two likely innocents are about to die. Let's see, we have ten minutes time - any better candidates?" I think that an involved ordo would have tried to do his best. It might have ended the same way it ended, but you would have tried. But now you were just sneaking around, without showing your presence.

But there surely were others too. I just can't believe, that only Form, myself and Eomer were at the place on those last ten minutes or so (Mith appeared from out of the blue the last second).

Why didn't they show up? I see wolves had no reason to do anything - they knew that innocents were being killed and that suited them just fine, so why bother because those last minute votes and vote changes may be looked up as suspicious. It would have been pure folly from a wolf to come in then and involve himself! If there is no clear danger for the wolves, why should they leave their voting to the last seconds where they will be viewed with a microscope the next Day - and where they could end up in hard choices?

That's one of the reasons I regard Mith innocent despite her hunger to kill me. She cared for the best of the village and made herself involved - and there has already been suspicions raised on her that "she tries to make herself look good".

But were there ordos around, just watching, I'll just say it again: shame on you...

[JennyHallu]

#32

Kitanna goes into a long explanation of why Form/Noggie/Roa might contain at least two wolves, suggests we try Morm's plan Day 3, and in an edit (Bad! Bad puppy!) mentions a passing dislike of Glirdan's random vote.

#37

Votes for Glirdan, based on that fairly minor suspicion earlier, on his random vote. Mentions the Form/Noggie/Roa theory, but says she doesn't "want to act on this yet." What? Your main suspicion, and you vote on the minor one you editted in?

Kitanna is throwing all sorts of red flags. Would really like to see how she behaves today, but she's definitely not on my good list.

[JennyHallu]

Noggie, there were 12 villagers, from all over the world, and you choose to harp on who was around at the deadline on Day 1, after determinating that a third of the villagers were there?I didn't see you doing anything to save the SEER. You had no way of knowing whether Glirdan was innocent more than anyone else, and I really don't see the point of scolding people for not voting the same way you did.

[JennyHallu]

#12

In character goofiness and then a defense of day 1. Not a big deal, not very telling.

#39

She's here! she says. Hellos and thanks-for-noticings. Not a big deal, not very telling.

#40

Ok, I know this is in the post, but here, again, is her good and bad list. I have added italics for known innocents, underlines for dead people.

Baddies

Kuru
Eomer
Form
Morm
Roa
Mith

Goodies

Kitanna
Jenny
Noggie
Mac
Me
Glirdan

Now this is a day 1 list, I don't know how significant it is, but I want to compare it with the one we got today.

Her vote for Form is based on the idea that his rant could be good cover...nothing more concrete than that?

#78

I'm not keeping her notes, just generally sorting. You can check the post and see if I'm right.

Baddies
Eomer
Kuru

Not-Sures
Mac
Mith
Jenny
Kitanna

Innocents
Morm
Noggie

Seems to be consistent, at least.

I'm inclined to think Val innocent as of yet. At the very least I have no reasons not to. Don't like her voting reasons, but I don't expect long explanations from Val. Oh well.

[JennyHallu]

However, most are short.

#26, #27, #28

The middle one makes almost no sense.

First is a day 1 defense.

Attacks analyses. Uhoh.

Nothing jumps out at me. I agree with Noggie on Mith: when she's calm, she's probably innocent. Gifted or Wolvish she gets jumpy. However, she's really made no contributions, and despite the fact that she seems to have found more time, none of the promised explanation of her suspicions is forthcoming.

#41

Says she's here, nothing else relevant.

#48

Says she's uneasy about Form. First thing to a concrete contribution we've received. Explanation, of course, would be too much to ask.

#60

Vote for Noggie, retracted to Glirdan.

The retraction is clear, but why Noggie? only mention or interaction you've had with Noggie is joking about football vs. tennis.

Skipping the shouting, on to day 2.

#83, #84

There were reasons for Noggie? Great! Will you repost them? Apparently not. 84 seems merely to be clarification.

Mith really feels fairly innocent...but then...why no reasoning, thoughts, input? She's on my suspect list, but low on it.

[mormegil]

Currently I am going to give Eomer the benefit of my doubt. His response to Nogrod was decent enough to stay my vote. However, I would recommend not forgetting him and keeping him under a microscope, so to speak.

Valier still doesn't sit well with me. I've learned that ususally it's not the people who look the most guilty that are indeed guilty, wish that I had heeded that advice on Glirdan...you know the greatest thing about being a known innocent is I can say anything I want without any worry

++Valier

I will likely be back and may change my vote but in case I don't get back I wanted to get my vote out there.

[Kuruharan]

(Pass the Chianti, per favore. Grazie! Ahhh…that helps.)

After carefully reading through all of today’s posts Signore Macalaure strikes me as being ever more bizarre. Now as the enlightened among you, who have studied my marvelous werewolfing history at great length, know…I always tend to view strong defenses with a certain degree of favor. But this…

I am not defensive. Not at all! And I am not tense.
-Macalaure post # 80

…really seems a bit much.

Also, could somebody please explain to me the point this ragazzo was trying to make with this…

Well, of course Form didn't make his seerness so clear - he's not suicidal. If it had been clear, presumably no wolf would have bothered voting for him. Instead they would have silently finished him off in the night. His being a seer was not obvious and this is good for us, because the reasons given for his lynching were intentionally or unintentionally wrong. If we can sever the two, we might catch a wolf, but I have doubts that we can.
-Macalaure post # 80

None of this follows or makes any sense. If Signore Formendacil had made his seerness clear during the DAY, the wolves would have had every reason in the world to vote for him early and often so they could kill him as soon as possible and have the NIGHT to pick off innocents. And I don’t see that the last section of his paragraph means anything at all. This whole post just strikes me as a whole lot of sound and fury signifying nothing…exactly as a werewolf would do.

I have almost come to the point of revising yesterday’s opinion about Signore Eomer. His behavior was so out of character for him that I find it hard to believe that he might be a wolf. Unfortunately, I can also see the other side of that coin all too well and that was the side that was up for me yesterDAY (mainly because I couldn’t think of anything else). He has been more normal today. If we want to kill him toDAY just to be on the safe side, I could probably be all for that. However, I’m probably going to vote for Signore Macalaure.

Addio.

[Roa_Aoife]

OKay, I'm back, for a little bit.

A defense of her vote yesterday. Why should she feel defensive?

Because I nearly got the seer lynched. Imagine myreaction when I Logged back on today and read through everything I missed, only to find that I once again had suspected the seer. (I can never spot the seer as a wolf, but I always suspect of them of being wolves when I'm innocent. )

Moving on, Nogrod is sending off warning bells. Sure, strong agressive attacks were once his hallmark, but he made a point about toning that down. Now he attacks Eomer for not making a vote that he himself wouldn't make. If Nogrod was around at the end like he claims, why didn't he make a vote to save Form after Glirdan's vote?

Scolding others for doing nothing when he himself did nothing? It seems like he's trying to hide his own guilt by loudly pointing it out in others. He may have let up now, but that doesn't change what he did. If anything, it bears the mark of flip-flopping.

Also, I find it odd that everyone is saying, "Mith is being calm, she must be innocent." In truth, Mith freaks out when she's a gifted, but not when she's a wolf. (No offense.) As a wolf, she's as calm and reasonable as she ever is. Or at least that's how she was in the only game where I saw her as a wolf, and I was a wolf with her.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by JennyHallu

Votes for Glirdan, based on that fairly minor suspicion earlier, on his random vote. Mentions the Form/Noggie/Roa theory, but says she doesn't "want to act on this yet." What? Your main suspicion, and you vote on the minor one you editted in?

I don't recall ever saying either suspicions were major. They were both loose and minor since at the time I voted I didn't feel I had much to go on. And I'm glad I didn't act on my theory about Form/Nogrod/Roa because a) for that theory to work Form would have to be one of the wolves, which I wasn't convinced of and b) I wanted to see how the three acted toDay. So I picked my next suspect, which happened to be Glirdan.

Nogrod=
Eomer, I'm not blaming you of not saving Glirdan. What I find suspicious - or should we say convenient for a wolf - is the silence when being around. You could have said: "Hi, here I am, what shall we do as two likely innocents are about to die. Let's see, we have ten minutes time - any better candidates?" I think that an involved ordo would have tried to do his best.

An involved wolf could do the same leading the votes from one innocent to another. Besides it looks terrible if an innocent comes out and helps get another innocent lynched to save one. He/she ends up looking like a wolf that tries to be helpful. Also what if an innocent hanging around honestly thinks this "likely innocent" is guilty? You're going to ask them to change their vote because of how you feel on the subject? Even if that's not what you're saying Nogrod, that's is what it looks like to me.

Kuru=

None of this follows or makes any sense. If Signore Formendacil had made his seerness clear during the DAY, the wolves would have had every reason in the world to vote for him early and often so they could kill him as soon as possible and have the NIGHT to pick off innocents. And I don’t see that the last section of his paragraph means anything at all. This whole post just strikes me as a whole lot of sound and fury signifying nothing…exactly as a werewolf would do.

First off, I agree that this really makes no sense. I have no idea what you're trying to say in all that Mac.

I'd also like to mention something from what Kuru said.

If Signore Formendacil had made his seerness clear during the DAY, the wolves would have had every reason in the world to vote for him early and often so they could kill him as soon as possible and have the NIGHT to pick off innocents.

Yes, very reasonable, but couldn't the wolves (one or two, but not all three) try to save and defend Form during the day and then lead the votes to another innocent? So once Form was killed at Night at least one wolf looks better for trying to help save the seer.

[Macalaure]

None of this follows or makes any sense. If Signore Formendacil had made his seerness clear during the DAY, the wolves would have had every reason in the world to vote for him early and often so they could kill him as soon as possible and have the NIGHT to pick off innocents.

Or, they could have left the killing of innocents to the innocents and kill Form at night. Same outcome, no fingerprints.

And I don’t see that the last section of his paragraph means anything at all. This whole post just strikes me as a whole lot of sound and fury signifying nothing…exactly as a werewolf would do.

*sigh* I made a joke, so lynch me...


The banter between Eomer and Nogrod leaves me with a strange feeling. Eomer's defense made some sense and leaves Nogrod accusation in a bad light. But if Nogrod is a wolf, would he be so loud about this topic? He has put all our noses into his yesterDay's vote. This could have easily backfired, and it did backfire a bit.

edit: cross-posted with Kitanna.

[Macalaure]

Ah, I'm sorry. I misread your post, Kuru.

You meant this part:

Originally Posted by me

His being a seer was not obvious and this is good for us, because the reasons given for his lynching were intentionally or unintentionally wrong. If we can sever the two, we might catch a wolf, but I have doubts that we can.

Yes, on second thought I have to say that my first thoughts got a little mixed up. I was just doubtful of your "The upshot of this is I’m not sure how much we can read into the people who were going after him." What I wanted to say is, that, since Form is now proven innocent all the reasons given for his lynching yesterday are wrong. If a wolf was among the voters, s/he knew they were wrong. That is what I meant with intentional or unintentional. Of course, the same holds for the Glirdan-voters. It has nothing to do with Form's seerness but with his being innocent. I'm sorry.

[Roa_Aoife]

Oddly, I understand what Mac is saying. If a wolf was among the voters for Form, they would have had to come up with fake reasoning or no reasoning at all. However, how can we tell the difference between someone who is deliberately wrong, and someone who was accidentally wrong? Glirdan was wrong, but accidentally so. It is also unlikely that more than one wolf was in the Form bandwagon. I'm curious as to how Mac would suggest we pursue this idea beyond the norm. (In other words, what your point in saying what we already knew?)

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Moving on, Nogrod is sending off warning bells. Sure, strong agressive attacks were once his hallmark, but he made a point about toning that down. Now he attacks Eomer for not making a vote that he himself wouldn't make. If Nogrod was around at the end like he claims, why didn't he make a vote to save Form after Glirdan's vote?

Scolding others for doing nothing when he himself did nothing? It seems like he's trying to hide his own guilt by loudly pointing it out in others. He may have let up now, but that doesn't change what he did. If anything, it bears the mark of flip-flopping.

I'm glad you brought that up Roa, because I wouldn't have caught it. But what I do find interesting is the fact Nogrod is urging everyone who was around to change their votes to follow the path he saw fit. He seems to have taken it on himself to pick the paths of this village. He's not "blaming" Eomer for not helping in saving Glirdan, but that all looks very fishy. Nogrod said he didn't find Form or Glirdan guilty, but obviously some people did because they voted for them. However near the end of the day and toDay Nogrod is saying we, as a village, should have tried to save them, but by switching our votes to who? It's impossible for every single person who voted Form or Glirdan to be a wolf, so the innocents who voted must have thought they were voting for a wolf and Form last vote declared his innocence and Glirdan's death declared his. I don't like how Nogrod is acting on the whole affair.

Also looking to Form's post about Day 1, I didn't feel it was much to suspect Form on and when I did suspect Form it was because of the responses (mainly from Roa and Nogrod) that I suspected wolfish activity and I still do.

Form's Day One post and the reactions
After Form's first post Kuru mentioned we should all give our best ideas in helping to catch the wolf. A few others mentioned how terrible day one is, but Nogrod was the first to really attack what Form said. He claimed acting like that was just an excuse to be lazy and Nogrod brings up an example of a past game, but remember this isn't a past game. This is played with new players and different roles, a past game has no real bearing here.

Kuru calls attention to Form and suggests maybe he's trying to lead us down a path as a wolfish tactic.

It seems to me that perhaps Signore Formendacil could be acting just a shade manipulative. His predictions could be a cleverly concealed tactic to direct behavior in a particular direction...since once predictions are announced, people have a tendency to perversely do the opposite. However, this might speak in his favor since he's lamenting...

Clearly this swayed some people because the next post was Glirdan putting in his vote for Form. Looks rather bad that Kuru was the one to sway an innocent villager into voting for Form. I don't think Kuru said that with the intent of someone quickly jumping on it to vote, but it's noteworthy.

Roa was the next to really say something about Form's Day One post.

Anf frankly, Form, if you think it ought to be obvious that Day 1's are useless, why bother stating it? Face facts- those who think they are useless will continue to think so. Those who think they aren't will continue to do so. The only thing statements like yours do is sidetrack us from the problem at hand.

Reasonable enough, but unneeded. Nogrod makes the next post and says he agrees with what Roa had said about Day Ones. He then keeps going about this and that, when a simple I agree could have worked.

Think of a village inhabitated with 15 Forms! Everyone would just exclaim how stupid saying anything is. How could they decide their votes on any Day? Their Day1 would become Day2, Day3 etc... And surely, they would have made sure, that their votes had been in random, because there is nothing to go for... understandably.

Complete overkill on what Form said. The next post was a quick statement from Roa saying it was time to move on from the arguement about Day 1.

Form responds to what Nogrod has said, a defense of what he said.

Mith is the next and says what Form has said is too formulaic. Points out that Roa and Nogrod are both right that Day 1 can be productive. I come on next and make my Form/Nogrod/Roa theory based on the rebuttles of Nogrod and Roa to Form's post.

Looking at all that I now have three suspects.
1) Nogrod- For his constant return to Day 1 can be productive and Form you're wrong, and so on. Nogrod said he thought Form was innocent, but he drew a lot of attention to him with his Day 1 thing. Also for his thoughts that people should have changed their votes to save two "likely innocents" at the end of the day. I don't like the way he is trying to tell us what we should have done. He goes after Eomer for not changing his vote when he was around near the end. I'd like to hear from Eomer in the subject. And finally to agree with what Roa said, he made no action on his own end of the day plan.

2) Kuru- A distant second to Nogrod. The main reason I suspect Kuru is because his post about Form trying to stir us down a path is what caused Glirdan to start up the Form bandwagon. It was a slight accusation, but enough to influence someone else which may have been Kuru's plan.

3) Roa- I'm just following up on what I said yesterday. Her and Nogrod's rebuttles to Form still have me worried. Though that's all I have to go on right now.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay. That sounds believable. So no problem with that.



That's one of the reasons I regard Mith innocent despite her hunger to kill me. She cared for the best of the village and made herself involved - and there has already been suspicions raised on her that "she tries to make herself look good".

But were there ordos around, just watching, I'll just say it again: shame on you...

Well Noggin, you aren't off the hook but I now have a strong second candidate on what I have been able to glean so far (new desk with screen towards the directors' offices is not conducive to werewolf... feel guilty even login on at lunchtime.

Like Roa I found your reference to my usual calm self a little odd.... I make a jumpy gifted, a jumpy or fatalistic wolf (Roa's game....) as an ordo I hope I am back on form after a long spell of befuddlement and failing to pick wolves.

Actually a lot of what you throw at Eomer I was thinking about you.

My series of errors in the production of my panick votes is not my definition of trying to make myself look good. I really wasn't convinced about either Form or Glirdan and you seemed suspiciously disengaged, more like wolf who didn't really care which innocent got lynched.. and I was primed to kill anyone who rammed more football down my throat - feel like a goose being prepared for foie gras.

Anyway need to have a proper read.

One little point is that Morm believes in me again . Got that swallowed a cat feeling

[Nogrod]

Roa, I'm beginning to suspect that I have found the third wolf now...
Yes, I'm not at all sure about Eomer or Kitanna - they have been the only ones I have had something to note or suspect on.

But sincerely , look at this post Roa made! It's just a mild attack that in the same time works as her own cover-up. Oh my. And what the "attack" is made of? intentional misunderstandings and pure rhetorics (partly false them too).

Let's make an analysis on a couple of nice ones.

Sure, strong agressive attacks were once his hallmark, but he made a point about toning that down.

She calls my speculation on Eomer a "strong agressive attack"? C'mon Roa! You know very well yourself, what I can do... and what is a strong aggressive attack in the first place - I've seen you build them too. Then as you have yourself labelled my thoughts of Eomer as a strong attack, you accuse me of being inconsistent or suspicious because I have said I'm toning down. Nice Roa. Very nice. Oh how suspicious!

Now he attacks Eomer for not making a vote that he himself wouldn't make. If Nogrod was around at the end like he claims, why didn't he make a vote to save Form after Glirdan's vote?

First of all, an intentional misunderstanding. I didn't say Eomer should have "rescued" either Form or Glirdy. That was the whole point! We would have needed more people on the place to make a difference. I couldn't save them both and he couldn't have saved them both. So also asking why I didn't save Form is just continuing on the wrong tracks. So wishing to make me look like a culprit to the tragedy of yesterday (being herself one of those who voted for Form/Glirdy). Nice move Roa.
But even nicer to come: Roa says

If Nogrod was around at the end like he claims

. Well You know, there are people who speak or tell things (truthfully) and then there are people who just "claim" something. So I'm also the one who just claims being somewhere or done something. Very untrusty guy this Nogrod fellow, isn't he? Unfortunately you can check the last ten minutes of the last night. I was there. I don't only claim to have been there. The real problem is, that there were no others...

Scolding others for doing nothing when he himself did nothing? It seems like he's trying to hide his own guilt by loudly pointing it out in others.

And again, nice rhetorical twists turning from a misguided interpretation of what I have said to totally unwarranted inference about my guilt. But that looks nice (you should write speeches to politicians running for office - to paint the competitors black). No one could have made the difference there alone! Go check the situation yourself for God's sake and stop being intentionally misleading. It's annoying (or then evil - you Roa know which one of these it is in your case). Some people here had voted stupidly and then refused to come back to help us out from the situation. To wolves that's just great, but for us others not.

He may have let up now, but that doesn't change what he did. If anything, it bears the mark of flip-flopping

And Bingo! She got the word "flip-flopping" included in the post! Yes, that Nogrod is also a flip-flopper! First of all, the accusation is wrong as I have tried to explain here. But secondly - and I think even more importantly, it's there to rouse suspicion (because everyone is so confident that anything someone names flip-floppy is bad). So ungrounded rhetorics once again.

Roa I have been pondering so far whether I could try to trust you on this game - it would be just so totally improbable that you were a baddie again. But as you are here trying to make a mountain out of a molehill just using only rhetorical means and intentionally misguided interpretations, and as I happen to know that their target is innocent, I'm getting somewhat alarmed. If you would be an ordo just missing the mark, you would have had been sharper, more intelligent, seeing actual connections or slips or whatever. Here you had none.

Okay. Too much talk that misses the mark. I'll try to do something more constructive for a while.

EDIT: X-posted with a lot!

[Kitanna]

I need to vote and then go to work, so this is the last for the day.

++ Nogrod

I have stated my reasons and after looking at his defense of Roa's post I'm not swayed toward thinking him innocent. He says Roa is trying to cover her own tracks in going after him, that makes sense, but I don't think that's unnatural. Everyone in this game wants to cover there tracks, innocents and wolves alike, no one wants to be lynched.

So because of all I've said earlier I vote for Nogrod now. Good-bye and good luck village.

[Nogrod]

Not all who voted for Form & Glirdy were wolves. Right.

But accusing someone of trying to be at the place and make a difference is dishonest when one is in the first instance guilty of the things that happened.

To whom this was good? To the wolves. Who would not like to come and try? The wolves again.

Who would like to pour all this down on me? The wolves (or very pathetic villagers trying to bury their own feelings of guilt).

Think also of the following: what on earth was I doing there at the end of Day1, getting myself into all this trouble? A nice vote at least six hours before the deadline - to Glirdy or Form f.ex. - and nobody would have raised an eyebrow.

EDIT: X-posted with Kitanna (Roa's rhetorics seem to work...)

[Macalaure]

I hate to bring this up again, as it is not very interesting and doesn't show me in a good light: my posts towards Kuruharan.

First off, Kuru, my suspicion of you has subsided a little. Your response was just as annoyed as it should have been and was so by right.

Originally Posted by Roa

I'm curious as to how Mac would suggest we pursue this idea beyond the norm. (In other words, what your point in saying what we already knew?)

As I already said, the second part of that paragraph was not that intelligent. I have no idea. Out of the seven voters for Form and Glirdan 3 were known innocents, and all of the other four (Roa,Valier,Kitanna,Mith) don't speak of innocence to me. But at least one of them must be innocent.


Right now, there are only two things I know for sure and that I can work around. I am innocent and so is Morm. Morm hasn't been talked of much toDay and the ones that have talked to me / about me [edit: recently] (except Kuru) are Roa and Kitanna.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

First off, I agree that this really makes no sense. I have no idea what you're trying to say in all that Mac.

Partly you're right and partly you seemed to not even have tried. Not all of it was nonsense. This could be interpreted badly: A wolf seeing a stupid and misled innocent, stressing the fault without getting in too deep and seeing if other innocents bite on it.

Enter the good cop: Roa.
If I wasn't already suspicious about her, I might have thought "oh, thanks! Somebody at last caught a bit of it." But now it simply does not sit right with me.

Interestingly again, exactly these two are the ones who loudly promote the lynching of Nogrod right now. I still see Nogrod more innocent than guilty and his points against Roa make sense even though they're very angry. But if Nogrod is lynched and if he is found innocent then, especially Roa and Kitanna will be looked upon very closely. This makes it unlikely to me that they're both wolves.

[Mithalwen]

After my quick glimpse at work, I was convinced on the drive to the cyber cafe that I had found two wolves. Nogrod and Jenny Hallu (confirming my instincts re alleged analysis). Only problem is their interraction.

Nogrod mildly agrees with Jenny Hallu's suspicion of Kuruharan. Sometimes wolves avoid referring to eah other on Day 1. However a brief reference may be less suspicious.

I wonder about Nogrod saying that his vote might be and "on wolf" vote .... an odd expression ... I have only heard "wolf on wolf vote" ... but I am wary of taking it too seriously since even when I was near bilingual I know I used some odd expressions in French.

More soon... need a break.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I wonder about Nogrod saying that his vote might be and "on wolf" vote .... an odd expression ... I have only heard "wolf on wolf vote" ...

One never should try word-plays in a language that is not the first one... Morm entertained the idea that my vote for Kitanna might have been a "wolf on wolf", so as I'm not a wolf, I just expressed, that I believed it to be "on wolf" -vote. Yeah. Never try being funny when you actually can't.


But back to the bussiness.

Thanks Macalaure to sending us (well at least me) back on track, which is hunting wolves.

The first thing a wolf wants to secure is a good looking (or defendable) voting record. How do you get one in a village as quiet as ours on Day1? Well, surely by voting either Glirdy or Form - who both behaved somewhat suspiciously. They were easy to vote.

So the not-known Form/Glirdy voters are:
Roa
Valier
Kitanna
Mith

Of these I believe Mith innocent as she rushed in on the last second etc. (I've made the point already)

That leaves Roa, Valier and Kitanna. Of these I think even two might be wolves. I don't think it too fantastic an idea. A wolf must secure her vote. I know that is a bold suggestion, but look at the numbers: the wolves must be somewhere. I would also be inclined to believe that the wolves vote early enough, not to take any risks of making open decisiond between people.

That would leave - surprise, surprise - Roa and Kitanna...

Now where's the third wolf?

One safe, in the middle of the day vote perhaps? Maybe even trying to see whether a bandwaggon on a known good player might take air under it? So Eomer? I'll have to look at these possibilities more carefully... there were others there too. (I was already inclined to believe Eomer innocent after his defence felt genuine)

Sorry to be this open right now, but I have a bad feeling that you are going to lynch me toDay and there's just 1½ hours left. So I'll try to do my best before it.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Mac said that he was tense, tense! Calm down! Calm down! and all that. It was merely in jest, Kuru. I found it strange that you picked at those bones.

But Nogrod's stance of hogging the moral high-ground smacks of classic wolvery. "Oh, where were all the villagers? Shame on you!" It's a tactic, mark my words.

Apparently, he doesn't know what to make of me now. But this willingness to jump from me (who responded to his suspicions) over to Roa (who, with a couple of short remarks, provoked a very passionate response from Nogrod) has me convinced of his guilt; certainly more so than anyone else in this village. I think a stubborn innocent would have dismissed Roa and said that he would deal with her once Eomer was dead, but Nogrod sees enemies everywhere.

String him up!

++NOGROD

[Nogrod]

Eomer #36
I was waiting for the first person to jump on board the case against Glirdan, whose only crime was to set the ball rolling against that pesky curmudgeon Formendacil. It was construed as 'Glirdan is jumping on Form-suspicion'

I don't buy it. I think Mormegil is trying to invent a decent reason for his Day One vote. And let's be honest: Glirdan is about as lynchable as they get. A good idea, but I see it for what it truly is: fangéd skullduggery. String him up!

++MORMEGIL

At that time the tally: Form 2, Glirdy 1, Nogrod 1

Kuruharan #47
I'm going to go ahead and vote...

++ Eomer of the Rohirrim

Mainly because he's not been around...much, and I can't think of anything better to do. I don't really want to join the Signore Formendacil bandwagon (although, mama mia, if he does turn out to be a wolf that will be awkward). I'm even less comfortable with the Signore Glirdan campaign.

WARNING: Vote under pressure and may change with little warning.

At that time the tally: Form 3, Glirdy 2, Nogrod 1, Morm 1

Jenny #50
For now, at least, I'm going to vote

++Kuruharan

May change. Not sure.

Preceded by:

Jenny #42
Frankly, I'm most suspicious at the moment of Kuruharan. He's said enough for a presence, but I don't think any of it has been meaningful.

And his bit on "useful" and "not-useful" people...which, exactly, are which? Look at our camp rolls...everyone here, to my mind, falls into the useful category.

At that time the tally: Form 3, Glirdy 2, Nogrod 1, Morm 1, Eomer 1

Some thoughts to follow...

Btw. Eomer, I saw your vote. You are either evil or then totally misguided. I somehow hope you are evil, because then my initial guess has been proven right...

[Mithalwen]

I don't particularly suspect Roa partly because she has been making good sense in her posts but she is plausible.


Nogrod, fair enough, that makes sense. I am prepared hang fire on you but I doubt it will be enough now.

What is the voting now?

[Mithalwen]

I make it Noggin 2 Kitanna & Eomer and Valier 1 (Morm)

Lets add another to the mix seeming wolfish due to "analysis" smoke screen:

++ JennyHallu

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I think a stubborn innocent would have dismissed Roa and said that he would deal with her once Eomer was dead, but Nogrod sees enemies everywhere.

I only see three of them, dear Eomer...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

My evil ways are significantly overshadowed in this village by the beasts who would tear me limb from limb in the night. I do wish it hadn't come to this, Nogrod, you were such a good drinker and an able singer after a bottle of brandy. But the scoundrels have turned friend against friend in these sad times. And though I may be misguided, I'm certainly no wolf.

I have a vote? Are you sure, Mith?

[Valier]

Wow the power in my whole city has been out until just now, like for three hoursI will read through and see what has been happening.

I still highly suspect Eomer and will more than likely vote for him today. I have not seen any red flags about Nogrod so far, so I will not vote for him today.

I will back shortly and see how things are going.

[Kuruharan]

Mac said that he was tense, tense! Calm down! Calm down! and all that. It was merely in jest, Kuru. I found it strange that you picked at those bones.

Signore Eomer, you are not placing that in context. Truly, the “tense” comment was said in jest. But it was in a stream of self-justification that continued afterward. I believe the words “Trying too hard” apply to him here.

However, I too am becoming alarmed at the behavior of Signore Nogrod. I believe I can crystallize the source of my unease down to a single word – “hasty.” He seems very quick to toss around ideas and accusations. While having ideas is not at all a bad thing, it seems to me that an ordo would be best served by having more coherence and order to the way they proceed. It is in a wolf’s interest to whirl about and cause confusion, which seems to be what Signore Nogrod is doing. I’m also uncomfortable with the way he labels “very pathetic villagers trying to bury their own feelings of guilt” (post 105). Something about that just does not sit well with me.

He also makes a lot of the fact that he was “there” at the end of yesterday’s voting. My reaction is “so?” That is not proof of anything.

Ecco, my current suspicions are of Signore Macalaure, Signore Nogrod, and Signore Eomer…not necessarily in that order. The odds tell me that at least one of them is innocent. At the moment I’m inclined to believe Signore Eomer is innocent…but that might be off.

I’m not going to vote yet. I’ll wait a bit longer to see what happens.

Ciao!

[Nogrod]

Alright.

Eomer I still suspect somewhat. His vote for me may be triggered because he has found no one else to suspect (and a couple of persons have ranted on my guilt quite enough to ensure I'm in when those who can't or don't bother to think themselves make their decisions) or because I suspected him - or because he's a wolf.

His vote on Morm is a clessic wolf vote, trying to see whether a loosely based vote on a good player takes off and produces a good lynch to the wolves. I've said enough of Eomer today, I suppose.

Kuruharan's grounds for voting Eomer were

Mainly because he's not been around...much, and I can't think of anything better to do.

Then he added that he doesn't join either of the bandwaggons. It could be an ordo just not knowing what to do, or then a wolf skilfully seeing the dangers involved in joining at that minute... Hard to say.

Jenny is interesting. Her motive for voting Kuru is that he has been around to make a presence, but that non of it had been meaningful. Now this is first of all empirically false and secondly, there were lots of people of whom the same could have been said.

To top that, I've a feeling she has been a bit touchy (yeah, I'm the best to say that, I know, but there has been some rain over me toDay).

Of these three I would suspect Eomer and Jenny. There could be arguments laid over both of them.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Nogrod, though I will likely keep arguing for your death, please know that, if you are innocent, you will more than likely be very useful after you are gone. While I am very reluctant to take your theories at face-value just now, I will obviously give them the greatest of respect if I know their creator was of a good heart.

Small consolation, perhaps!

And I am gone for tonight. No hanging around silently at the end, I promise!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

However, I too am becoming alarmed at the behavior of Signore Nogrod. I believe I can crystallize the source of my unease down to a single word – “hasty.” He seems very quick to toss around ideas and accusations. While having ideas is not at all a bad thing, it seems to me that an ordo would be best served by having more coherence and order to the way they proceed.

You like Eomer seem to fall into the same trap, concentrating on one fiend at the time - discussing just one or two persons... We have three wolves and three has to be found before the village is secured. And as I have had bad feeling about this being my last day here, I've tried to help. Sorry for that.

[Macalaure]

I want to get a vote off, now. I will be around until the deadline.

So, Roa or Kitanna, Kitanna or Roa...

++ Roa_Aoife