Tol-in-Gaurhoth VII (The Saga goes ever on and on)

[Firefoot]

I'll let you know if you kill the cobbler.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I think Durelin is going to get herself lynched by acting in such a way, but I think she's probably innocent. She seems eager to help.

I must vote for:

++ODDWEN

She voted for tgwbs at a critical point when votes were just starting. The posts preceding her vote suggested that a lynch tgwbs train was just starting to roll, and indeed he has garnered three (I think) votes, for nothing altogether suspicious, in my view.

I know it's slightly outrageous and left-of-centre, but I think she's doing well at hiding; she's voted for someone I don't consider suspicious (indeed she started these votes), and I have a feeling she might be a wolf. Genuinely.

It won't matter because Nilp's going to get lynched. If I can speak to Oddwen tomorrow then maybe she can convince me of her innocence. I don't think this vote will matter too much but there it is.

[Firefoot]

The Day has ended. Expect Nilp's death soon.

[Firefoot]

As the sun drew even with the horizon, the villagers were still unsure of the wolves’ identities but they had cast their lots in with Nilpaurion’s lynching – never mind that less than half of them actually thought he was a wolf.

But it really is easier to lynch someone in darkness than in the broad daylight, and a chant rose up, “Kill the wolf! Kill the wolf!” Nilpaurion only looked slightly put out by this. “But I’m not a wolf! I just want you to lynch me!”

The mob paid no attention to this and instead began ushering Nilpaurion towards the gallows which the executioner had conveniently ordered to be built some time ago.

Then one voice made itself heard over the others. “Why hang him? Let his wolves kill the wolf!”

“It wouldn’t work!” claimed another. “No sensible animal bites the hand that feeds it.” Besides, Nilp’s wolf farm was much farther away than this unused gallows, and the shouts of “Let the wolves kill the wolf” were drowned out in the sea of voices, as was the lone shout at the back of the mob, “I’m the executioner! Let me do my job!”

Those at the front paid no heed as they began to tie the rope around Nilp’s neck, perhaps with a little too much glee. They stepped back from the gallows and pulled the lever. Nilp seemed to hang there, still grinning at them. The villagers were confused. Why wasn’t Nilp dying?

Who tied this rope anyway? You villagers don’t even know how to tie a slip knot, let alone lynch someone.

“Hush, Adam,” answered Nilp. “I’m being lynched. That’s the important part.”

“This is ridiculous,” grumbled someone. “He might hang there all night.”

Shouts of agreement went up, and a couple people forced their way to the front bearing heavy sticks.

“He can defy the gallows, but no one can withstand a beating for long!” This idea was eagerly taken up and with a flurry of movement the villagers were pressed around the gallows as the sticks were swung at Nilp’s body.

“Hey, that hurts!” said Nilp. What did you expect? snickered Adam.

Eventually, there had been enough wild swings that Nilp’s neck slipped free of the poorly tied noose, and his bruised and bloody body collapsed in a heap. The villagers didn’t stop there, however – like eager children trying to get all the candy out of a piñata, they continued to beat Nilp’s still body, delighting to hear the bones crack and see new rivulets of blood spill down his back. Finally, a crushing blow was delivered to Nilp’s head. No way was he still alive. The villagers stepped back, no longer in admiration of their handiwork. Nothing had happened. The wolves could barely contain their victorious smiles – Nilp had been an ordinary villager.

~*~*~*~

Living:

Dancing Spawn
Durelin
Elf-warrior
Encai
Eomer
Feanor
Kath
Kitanna
Lhuna
LMP
Mormegil
Oddwen
Oromin
Saurreg
TGWBS
TORE
Wilwarin

Dead:

Firefoot – drowned and burned by werewolves on Night 1
Nilpaurion (Ordinary Villager) – beat piñata style and killed by villagers on Day 1

Score:

Werewolves – 3
Villagers – 14

It is now Night 2. Werewolves may PM and should send me your choice of a kill. Seer, PM me with your choice of a dream. Ranger, tell me who you want to protect. Hunter, tell me who you want to kill in case the wolves kill you. Shirriffs, stop PMing.

Night will end in 24 hours.

[Firefoot]

As if by unspoken agreement the villagers all gathered quietly in the town square the next morning. The gallows standing nearby was an ominous reminder of the previous night’s mistake no one wanted to remember or repeat.

It soon became clear that one of their number would not be showing up: Feanor of the Peredhil was missing. The villagers quickly agreed that they had better go find out what had happened, though no one doubted for a moment that the wolves had killed her.

Fortunately, the walk was not long and the villagers were soon standing in front of Fea’s very nice house.

“One would think that a pathological liar wouldn’t have so much money to spend,” grumped one of the more honorable villagers.

“I’d rather be poor and living than wealthy and dead,” retorted another, and that was the end of that.

Fortunately, they did not have to force themselves into the house this time - the wolves had left the door slightly ajar. Not only that, but the villagers found that starting in the entrance hall there was a trail of arrows pointing the way – arrows painted in blood. “How nice,” said one of the villagers, sarcastically hysterical. “Not only is the door open, but we don’t even have to search the whole house.”

Nevertheless, the villagers followed the relatively short trail to its end in a rather spacious room. They saw no sign of Fea, however; instead, the final arrow pointed to two words: Obligatory lie.

“The arrows’ directions were a lie,” explained someone for those who didn’t understand. “We’ll have to search the house after all.” The search took somewhat longer, since Fea’s house was more complex in layout than Firefoot’s cabin.

Their search was ended with the discovery of another message: Second lie: Fea was a wolf. This time, however, it wasn’t written in blood. It was written in guts – Fea’s guts.

The villagers’ gazes traveled upwards and alighted on the rest of Fea. After being gutted, she had been stuffed (no one cared to find out with what), posed, and laid on the mantelpiece as a hunter might display a prized pheasant. Indeed, the wolves had been quite pleased with their choice of kill.

“Well…” said one villager (the same who had said they would catch the wolves or die trying), “she wasn’t a werewolf, but at least she wasn’t anything else either.” Tactless as this comment was, it was true. Fea had been entirely ungifted.

~*~*~*~

Living:

Dancing Spawn
Durelin
Elf-warrior
Encai
Eomer
Kath
Kitanna
Lhuna
LMP
Mormegil
Oddwen
Oromin
Saurreg
TGWBS
TORE
Wilwarin

Dead:

Firefoot – drowned and burned by werewolves on Night 1
Nilpaurion (Ordinary Villager) – beat piñata style and killed by villagers on Day 1
Fea (Ordinary Villager) – gutted and stuffed by werewolves on Night 2

Score:

Werewolves – 3
Villagers – 13

It is now Day 2. Wolves should stop PM’ing; Shirriffs may start. Day will end in 24 hours.

[the guy who be short]

Ah, well that's out of the way then! The pathological liar and Nilp are both out of the picture and both ungifted. This is very fortunate; two of the most puzzling characters removed from the village, and neither of their deaths too much of a hindrance.

Now to analyse what the two have said.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Morm

This may look like a knee-jerk reaction, however remember please that I initially suspected her and yet she admitted she was voting for me simply because I voted for her.

Hehe, well, we all know first day voting is completely...well, pointless. I really had nothing to go on...and so, I went with the only person who said I was *suspicious*. Knowing my own innocence...why not vote for who thinks I'm not? *shrugs* I wouldn't say anyone was being wolfish just for that...but that's just me. Maybe I'm too old for this sort of thing...

Originally Posted by Eomer

Durelin also suggested we debate who the Seer should dream about and who the Guardian should protect. She has since been quiet about our lack of activity on that front. I am still pondering this idea. I can't quite figure out if this is a genuine innocent's idea. Is she trying to pinpoint the Seer?

Uh huh...Well, earlier I went off to tend to my flowers, figuring that when I came back some progress would be made in that direction. But I was wrong, so I thought I might give everyone a good kick in the rear.

I think Durelin is going to get herself lynched by acting in such a way, but I think she's probably innocent. She seems eager to help.

Now I might give Nilp a run for his money, eh?

Time to really get to hunting werewolves now that two innocents are dead...

Edelweiss are calling...

~Rhodedendron Durelin

[mormegil]

The following is a simple list of who voted for whom. The number to the right is the number of posts made by that individual.

Nilp
Nilp-2
TGWBS-9
Saurreg-4
Fea-6
Kitanna-5
Encai-3

TGWBS
Oddwen-2
Elf-warrior-8
LMP-4

Mormegil
Durelin-12
Wilwarin-9

Durelin
Mormegil-8
Dancing Spawn-10

Oromin
TORE-13

Oddwen
Eomer-14

No Vote
Kath-6
Lhuna-1
Oromin-1


One thing I find very revealing is Kath's no vote. She posted enough to vote and even voiced suspicion about TGWBS but yet didn't vote. I would also be willing to bet that at least one wolf was in the Nilp voting list. That would leave us only 4 on the list. I would posit that Encai and Kitanna are the most suspicious currently out of those and Saurreg the least. I think that TGWBS bears watching as well as Kath.

Now I can see a Kath/TGWBS team. Kath mentioned her suspicions of TGWBS but didn't vote especially when she saw how close TGWBS was getting to death. On the other hand Kath could be a wolf and TGWBS innocent. What I'm saying is we need to watch Kath very closely

[wilwarin538]

That was definetly a terrible way to die. I suppose we are lucky though, that she wasn't gifted, but it is still upsetting. I will be away for most of today, so don't expect to hear much from me.

**walks away playing "Another one bites the dust"**

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I must say I am baffled by the Werewolves' pick: why Fea? If anyone was going to attract suspicion now that Nilp is dead, it would be the resident pathological liar.

I'll miss the lass. Fair as a springtime rainbow she was. Who could want to despoil such a thing?

For what it's worth, she claims to have suspected tgwbs in an early post. I'm not sure why. I think this was a case of mistaking mirth with serious accusations again. Come to think of it, I'm not sure why the guy who be short attracted that many votes.

Anyone care to reveal what's so wolvish about him?

[The Elf-warrior]

Poor Feanor of the Peredhil. What a horrible way to have your belief confirmed. Sorry I didn't give any reasons for my suspicions or analyze the voting patterns, Dancing Spawn. I suspected you because you misread me and Wilwa's early posts. But I can see how you read them wrong. Unless things change, you're cleared. I don't think wanting to vote for me is really that suspicious. The main reason why I was suspicious of TGWBS was that he suggested preemptorily lynching Fea and Eomer. Later on I saw the smiley face at the end of his post and figured that he was joking about Eomer. When I re-read the thread today I saw were he said he was just joking. That includes the late Fea. I believe him so he's cleared unless things change. Nilp, of course, is dead and was an ordinary villager. I was suspicious of him because of his strange (Ordinary.) behaviour. I voted for The Guy because I didn't want to jump on the "Lynch Nilp." bandwagon. And yes, it did make sense to vote for him. I thought better of voting for you so I voted for The Guy. I didn't think he'd get lynched anyway.

I need to get off the computer so I'll post sometime in this DAY.

PS. I see Morm suspects a Kath/Guy conspiracy. I'd be more suspicious of Kath.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

PS. I see Morm suspects a Kath/Guy conspiracy. I'd be more suspicious of Kath.

I do, however I can see a possibility of that though I don't suspect it much.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hmm. Did you really not notice that he was joking Elf-Warrior?

And what of Oddwen and littlemanpoet? I want to hear from those two.

Now, I know what you're thinking: Why is Eomer defending tgwbs? Well, I'm not so much defending him as I am accusing the others of acting strangely. I don't understand how tgwbs managed to garner three votes on DAY 1. Perhaps it's not Oddwen I should have voted for; perhaps I should have turned my attention toward Elf-Warrior and especially littlemanpoet.

Let's look at those three:

Oddwen started the voting for tgwbs, shortly after the murmurs against guy were starting. He looked like the second target (after Nilp, of course). Plus she was hiding. I admit that's not too much to go on but I knew my vote was going to be unimportant anyway so I didn't feel bad about throwing Oddwen's name into the mix.

The Elf-Warrior has actually had exchanges with tgwbs. He was suspicious of guy over what seemed to me clear mirth (maybe it's just because I was a central character in the mirth. ) His vote is slightly more understandable, but I doubt he really took guy that seriously.

And littlemanpoet voted for tgwbs for no discernible reason, as far as I can tell, at a time when he was second (I think) in the 'lynch list'.

I'll have to reiterate: I am not really supporting the guy who be short here; I am more interested in the behaviour of those who voted for him. I'd love to hear from you three. As yesterday showed, I am easily swayed!

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Thanks, mormegil, for the statistics.
Ok, here's something I gathered from Fea's posts.

Post #52: Fea joked that she'd like to lynch mormegil and TGWBS.

Post #73: Fea is suspicious of TQWBS.

Post #74: Fea submits a scheme of mormegil being one of the wolves.

Excluding Nilp, TQWBS and mormegil (and Durelin) are the ones to gather most votes.

At this point Fea gets killed and she is proven innocent.

Did the wolves hope that we'd rush to vote for either of those two just because Fea was "pure and innocent as the wind driven snow"? Or are morm and Guy really double-bluffing wolves?


ps. Elf-warrior, thanks for understanding. I try to be more careful from now on.

[mormegil]

Spawn please explain a little bit more what you are saying. I'm not fully understanding your conclusion. And I would like to be clear on it.

Did the wolves hope that we'd rush to vote for either of those two just because Fea was "pure and innocent as the wind driven snow"? Or are morm and Guy really double-bluffing wolves?

[Oddwen]

Eomer -

As to my vote yesterday, I voted for TheGuy because I believed at that time that he was most likely to be wolfish.
And no, I'm not hiding. I have nothing to hide.


This is a very long list, I just hope it's some use to someone.

Kath was appalled by his his bloodthirstiness. Spawn defended bloodthirstiness in general. (not the wanton kind)
Durelin jokingly (?) agrees with Guy about Fea's confusingness.
Morm picks Guy "at random" to lynch, saying it's a good a choice as any. (Eomer says that it's no good, as the choice wasn't made by a proven innocent, Spawn agrees with this...in a way)
Guy suggests wild and pretty useless plans, which confuses Wilwa, who later says her confusion was a joke.
Fea jokingly (?) says we should lynch Guy because he suggests lynching two famed troublemakers
Nilp mentions the lack of Guy's abacus, Guy responds saying he "forgot" and looks to a FeaNilpEomer trio, and says his abacus points to D-Spawn, and mentions voting for Elf Warrior "on a whim"
Kath says that she is suspicious of Guy for going after Fea and Eomer so tenaciously, Guy responds that lynching is a needed thing
Kath is upset with Guy's "whim", says there's no reasoning behind it
Wilwa mentions she has a bad feeling about Guy
Fea says she's suspicious of Guy
Guy is the #5th person on Morm's "somewhat suspicious" list
Oddwen voices her suspicions about Guy and his lack of abacus, votes for Guy
Guy responds saying the abacus is for random picks, his current random pic he is not suspicious of
Kitanna is slightly suspicious of Guy for not using his abacus
Guy votes for Nilp, saying "he'll confuse me anyway"
Eomer questions wether anyone really thinks Nilp is guilty as he voted for himself, Guy responds with "What better way to disguise himself"
Elf warrior says he's suspicious of Guy, and two others
Kitanna says she's suspicious of Guy and fea for the same silly and pointless reasons
TorEstel is "not happy" with the speed at which Guy followed Nilp's own vote
Elf Warrior votes for Guy
LMP explicitly states that Guy's wolvish, and votes for him
TorEstel says he has no other evidence against Guy other than the speed of his vote, but he doesn't like that - he then expresses more disappointment and votes for Oromin
Eomer votes for Oddwen, insinuating that she pushed the "lynch Guy train"
Guy is the first at Fea's death, and rejoices that the two most confusing villagers are out of the way
Morm mentions a suspicion about Guy, muses on a Kath/Guy team
Eomer wants to know what's so wolvish about Guy
Elf warrior explains that his vote for Guy was so he didn't want to "jump on the 'lynch Nilp' bandwagon"
Eomer wonders about Oddwen's role in the votes against Guy
Oddwen compiles a very long list

(Questions, comments, please do so.)

Lesse, who followed my vote -
Elf Warrior
LMP

Interesting to note that these two voted three minutes apart.

A note -
I know I did implicate Nilp a lot, and perhaps that was unwise as I believed him to be confusing, but not necessarily suspicious. I am somewhat relieved, however, that the two most loud-mouthed suspicious-acting people are no longer here to confuse us. I just wish they had been wolves, is all.
Hmm...loudmouths dead. Does this point towards quiet wolves?

I'll be back in a couple of hours.

Do not lead me, for I may not follow
Do not follow me, for I may not lead
Don't walk beside me either, just leave me alone

[The Only Real Estel]

Posted by Eomer:

For what it's worth, she claims to have suspected tgwbs in an early post

That's the problem, she suspected too many people for us to have much to go on. Fea suspected TGWBS, Lhuna, Oddwen, Saurreg, Morm, Eomer, & Kitanna. Of course she suspected some of those less and some of those more.

Because Fea would've been a prime suspect to at least direct suspicion on, if not lynch, I'm assuming she nailed a werewolf or two in there. Unfortunately, there are a few too many people to just go ahead & lynch everyone looking for the wolf.

I looked at the votes and the defending/accusing patterns of everyone and still have no real suspects, although I agree with morm that at the very least Kath deserves watching.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by morm

Spawn please explain a little bit more what you are saying.

Sorry, I type faster than I think... or is it vice versa?

The wolves killed Fea and, of course, they knew that we'd analyze what she has said. Fea was suspicious of both mormegil and TGWBS and after Nilp, they were the two most suspicious people yesterday (according to voting).

There are two options in my theory.

Option number 1) Mormegil and (or) TGWBS are not guilty. The wolves hoped that we'd follow the suspicions of an innocent villager and we'd lynch morm or TGWBS today and the culprits would be safe at least until tomorrow. But we won't kill them because we realized what the wolves are up to.

Option number 2) Mormegil and (or) TGWBS are guilty. The wolves hoped that we'd go for option number one.

Am I making more sense now? I hope I am 'cause I don't know how I could explain this better.

[The Only Real Estel]

Option number 2) Mormegil and (or) TGWBS are guilty. The wolves hoped that we'd go for option number one

Interesting theory, Spawn, but I'm having trouble seeing the wolves taking such a bold risk as to incriminate two of their kind by killing Fea when they probably could've left her alone and relied on the misguideness of the innocent villagers to do the job for them.

Edit:

Eomer said:

And littlemanpoet voted for tgwbs for no discernible reason, as far as I can tell, at a time when he was second (I think) in the 'lynch list'.

I assumed that littlemanpoet was voting for tgwbs because of the way he jumped at Nilp's vote against himself. I felt like doing the same thing but decided it was probably better not to.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by The Only Real Estel

Interesting theory, Spawn, but I'm having trouble seeing the wolves taking such a bold risk as to incriminate two of their kind by killing Fea when they probably could've left her alone and relied on the misguideness of the innocent villagers to do the job for them.

Ok, I have another two options.

Option number 1) The wolves are gamblers.

Option number 2) Only one of them is a wolf and the wolves are just using the other.

[Encaitare]

Oh, dear, somehow poor Fea had it coming. Ungoliant's theories are sound -- the trouble is, which one of them is true, or closer to the truth? Another motive the wolves might have had for killing Fea was that she was big on compiling information, nice and neat, for all of us to see. I would say that morm and TGWBS might merit some watching, but that's about it for now. I sincerely doubt that both of them would be wolves.

Edit: cross-posted with ungoliant.

[Durelin]

Okay, I quickly went through everyone's post up till the end of Day 1. Here's my little synopsis...I know I've missed some things, and hopefully I'll be going over things again. And of course I'll need to update my list to include today's posting soon (I'll wait until a few more people have posted....).

Howling Lhuna: has fun being a lhunatic...doesn't say much

Unfortunate Fea: well, lies... liked to give info, jumped on Nilp bandwagon

Nilp: gets himself lynched

TGWBS: jokingly accuses people, says gifted shouldn't reveal themselves yet, suggests everyone lynch everyone, plays with his abacus, first to vote for Nilp

Encai: doesn't post much, says in a later post that Morm has been at the center of attention and she finds that suspicious, says Nilp makes her 'uneasy'

Rubberneck Oddwen: posts very little, says nothing, votes for TGWBS randomly

morm: picks to randomly lynch TGWBS using crazy numbers, becomes suspicious of me, and votes for me after I vote for him

lmp: watches the stars, posts briefly, says nothing but 'watch out for Lhuna' because of the moon, then votes for TGWBS

Saurreg: doesn't post much, says nothing much of importance, votes for Nilp after TGWBS does, says he's suspicious of Nilp right off the bat

Elf-warrior: Starts out cautioning morm, first to mention cobbler, says he's suspicious of TGWBS, Dancing Spawn, and maybe Nilp

wilwarin: Starts with agreeing with EW's caution, suggests that maybe morm is a 'bit eager for bloodshed', is confused, has bad feeling about morm and TGWBS, votes for morm

Kitanna: backs up morm in post directly following Eomer's, says she'll pull someone randomly when she votes, but then agrees with Fea and votes for Nilp

Estel: emphasizes the first lynch is a shot in the dark, first to mention Oddwen (someone who hadn't posted yet at that point), talks about how the Seer should hint

Eomer: backs up morm concerning wilwarin's accusation, says Fea and Morm are at the top of his list, but says he really has no idea, and then 'lets them off the hook', didn't think Nilp was a wolf

Oromin: posts very little, says nothing

Kath: urges that gifted should not reveal themselves yet, has 'ill feelings' about TGWBS

dancing spawn: says it's never too early to 'throw death plans', gives statistics, says The Elf-warrior, wilwa, and mrm are the wolves (perhaps jokingly), suggests suspicion of wilwarin, then votes for me without previously mentioning me

Me: Posts a lot, doesn't say much, votes for her accuser knowing that Nilp's probably going to die, suggests that they do something about the Seer and such once but then doesn't say anything about it again...maybe because I didn't say much at all after that on the day, and there wasn't much to say, since my words concerning the Seer and other gifteds were basically ignored until people were suspicious of me.

Mainly I'm stating what's gone on (which ain't much, really), and have included a bit in defense of myself. Hope you don't mind... Also please note that the list is in no particular order...

[The Only Real Estel]

Posted by Durelin (among many other things):

first to mention Oddwen (someone who hadn't posted yet at that point)

True, but hopefully you know that I wasn't accusing her of anything...

Thanks for the posts, Durelin & Oddwen; it's good to be able to read sort've a synopsis of what has happened so far. I may post my own soon...after my 3:30 smoke, of course.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Durelin, TGWBS wasn't the first one to vote for Nilp. That was Nilp himself.

[littlemanpoet]

Please take note, fellow villagers, that I stood back and watched during the lynching of the innocent Nilpaurion. I told you but you would not listen. You who voted for him have no one to blame but yourselves. Why, oh why, does "lynch me" seem to always be obeyed? Will foolish, unenlightened blood-lusting villagers always be swayed by such harmless insanity? As you all now know, Nilpaurion was not in his right mind, or perhaps it would be better stated that he had two too many minds in one head, which is to say that indeed he was crazy, and maybe even wanted to die, but he was not a werewolf, and most of you who voted for him knew it. For shame.

You ask why the werewolves ended the life of Feanor of the Peredhil? Allow me to lend some thoughts to that. They viewed her as dangerous. So say the stars. She was right about something. They dared not leave her alive. So do review what she said, for she made good sense, save for the obligatory lies.

Why did I vote for Guy? Because he is not himself. Before the Moon did its silvery damage and changed him into a lycanthrope, so say the stars, he was always quite helpful and ready to analyze and strategize and plan in the most helpful ways. Yet yesterDay he went wild with accusations, as if he were playing at both life and death. And, he hopped on the innocent Nilpaurion. I still think he is clever and strategic, but this time I think it is so in terms of double bluff, for what villagers would suspect WereGuy of being so stewpid as to so obviously jump on an innocent lynch victim?

I am sorry that I had not the time to explain my vote better yesterDay. My normal means of communicating with all of you has been rendered useless. Let's just say that means that my voice doesn't work except at specific times. Those times are: 11 am until noon GMT, then for one single half hour roughly five hours after that, then for perhaps one hour more roughly four hours after that. And most of that time is spent playing catch-up as to what others have been saying, not to mention discerning the movements of the heavens.

I will make no further defense. My posts speak for themselves.

[Durelin]

Durelin, TGWBS wasn't the first one to vote for Nilp. That was Nilp himself.

Woops...thanks, dancing spawn. Overlooked that, I did.

And TORE, that was merely a simple observation, as it was the first line in I believe your first post, so it stuck out to me in my scanning.

[the guy who be short]

Ah, suspicion.

Now, I voted for Nilp because, as I said, I thought it was a cunning bluff. Obviously I was wrong.

Originally Posted by LMP

Yet yesterDay [TGWBS] went wild with accusations, as if he were playing at both life and death.

First Day.

I'll be accusing some people later... Expect some substance soon, if not sooner, but if not that soon, then I'm afraid it will be more than 12 hours from now.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Me: Posts a lot, doesn't say much, votes for her accuser knowing that Nilp's probably going to die, suggests that they do something about the Seer and such once but then doesn't say anything about it again...maybe because I didn't say much at all after that on the day, and there wasn't much to say, since my words concerning the Seer and other gifteds were basically ignored until people were suspicious of me.

The reason why it doesn't work to try to develop consensus as to whom the Seer should dream of, whom the Ranger should protect, and whom the Hunter should hunt, is because there are no known innocents. We don't have someone whom we can implicitly trust to lead the way. As soon as one of the shirriffs is revealed, that all changes.

There are a few alternatives to the above, however. By perhaps Day Three, there could be consensus that one of the villagers must be innocent because of how s/he conducts her/imself; that individual could be appointed the leader in organizing the gifteds. However, if and when such leadership occurs, it has to be respected by a strong majority of the villagers so as to counteract influence and votes of the werewolves and cobbler. And any plans that are made, must be agreed to by enough villagers such that the werewolves and cobbler can't destabilize it in some way.

Admittedly, the above has not been garnered from the heavens, but perhaps you might see the merit in it anyway.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by The Guy

Expect some substance soon, if not sooner, but if not that soon, then I'm afraid it will be more than 12 hours from now.

That would be most welcome. I do hope that you are able to allay my suspicions of you. You had better do so, for although the stars are at times circumspect in their revelations, there are other ways to determine the truth of a matter. If you take my meaning.

[the guy who be short]

No, it's not a lament.

So, Littlestargazingpoet, I have come with analysis! Behold!

Here is something that made me say GOSH.

In this post, Fea mentions Nilp, Kath, Wilwa and "everybody else." She analysise Nilp according to his history, and jests with Kath about hers.

And then we have Wilwa, who Feanor deems innocent. Wilwa is the only person really picked out here, the only person she comments strongly on. I think the wolves, seeing Feanor pick out one person, thought that she was the Seer, so they killed her.

Wilwarin, I declare, is innocent. The wolves killed Feanor for picking Wilwa as an innocent in such a Seerish way, rather than for picking a wolf (though perhaps she did manage to name one or two; she named so many people that it's not unlikely).

Of course, there could be a little reverse psychology going on, with Wilwa as a wolf, but I like my theory enough to stick to it.

[The Only Real Estel]

And TORE, that was merely a simple observation, as it was the first line in I believe your first post, so it stuck out to me in my scanning

Just making sure.

Interesting theory, TGWBS, I'll chew on that whilst I am busy & hopefully I'll get a chance to summarize some of what's been going on/my thoughts so far.

[Kath]

Completely OOC

I realise I have made myself look rather suspicious what with my lack of a vote yesterday. My explanation is rooted in RL problems (namely the loss of a holiday) and there was no way of getting on the computer at the time. I did not know this before I previously left and so did not vote in my last post. I was only 9 minutes late having begged my parents to just give me 2 minutes but Firefoot had already closed voting. This is pretty much the same reason for my lack of being here so far toDay and I apologise. I should not have this problem again but if I do then I'll take myself out of the game to avoid any further confusion.

I have no time for further analyses of people right now but I will make sure I go over what has been said later on.

[Orominuialwen]

First of all, the reason for my lack of vote yesterDAY was a malfunctioning computer. It froze as I was posting and DAY was over by the time I got it to work again.

As far as I see it, the only reason the wolves got Fea was because she said something that scared them. She most likely named at least one, probably multiple wolves in her accusation and they were afraid that she would continue to point fingers at them. The only problem is that she accused enough people that it's very difficult to figure out who among her accusees is really a wolf.

[Kitanna]

I go off to work, I come back and this happens...poor dear Fea. And to be killed in such a gruesome manner.

And now there seems to be a lot of buzz around TGWBS, some around morm, and some around Kath.

[Kitanna]

I had some tiem to think during dinner tonight. And something struck me about TGWBS and who voted for him. It was Eomer's post about Oddwen, Elf-Warrior, and lmp, that first got me thinking. I believe at least one wolf is in that mix.

I think it might just be Oddwen. She was the first to vote for The Guy, and she did it early on to because she thought she wouldn't be around later. That's understandable. But here's the reason she gave for voting for TGWBS.

T. Guy, because as has been said, is not using an abacus. What this exactly means I have no idea, but it seems to have a mathematical ring to it - I'm assuming he doesn't use it because the Maths which Do Not Lie would point him out. And he couldn't fudge it, because well...Math does Not Lie.

So part of her reason for voting for him were because of the lack of abacus. He may not have used it on day one, but maybe on day two. And that might just point to Oddwen.
She also says:

I am somewhat relieved, however, that the two most loud-mouthed suspicious-acting people are no longer here to confuse us.

Glad to see two innocent villagers dead? That can't possibly be normal.

But here's my theory on those who voted for TGWBS. It's an odd little theory, but I think it makes sense.
Three people voted for The Guy. Three being the number of wolves. Of course the wolves couldn't possibly be stupid enough to all three vote for the same person. No, no I think the first two voters may be wolves and they hoped to gain a third vote. Which they did.
I feel Oddwen is most likely a wolf.
Elf-Warrior might be a wolf, I think he's a little sketchy. I'm less certain about him.
lmp I believe is innocent.

I still have some bad feeling about TGWBS, but I'm more worried about Oddwen.

[Oddwen]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Quote:
I am somewhat relieved, however, that the two most loud-mouthed suspicious-acting people are no longer here to confuse us.
Glad to see two innocent villagers dead? That can't possibly be normal.

I'm not glad that two innocents are dead. I am slightly relieved that two loudmouths are dead. I'm glad that Fea was loudmouthed, because now her posts are above Werewolfy suspicion. Nilp however, I can't really find anything of substance.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

So part of her reason for voting for him were because of the lack of abacus. He may not have used it on day one, but maybe on day two. And that might just point to Oddwen.

Then again, it might pick you. Whatever happens likely means little. As he himself pointed out, the Abacus is more for a random pick, not for the actual deductions. I was wrong in suspecting him for that.
And now it appears that he's been pulling the "old deaf man gets a hearing aid but doesn't tell his relatives and changes his will eighty times" deal. A bluff. I blush, even if it ain't true.


I have to look at the two who "threw away" their votes when Nilp's death was sure.

TorEstel for Oromin, and Eomer for Oddwen. Could bear watching, though I'm leaning towards them being innocent in origin.

I'm going to look at Fea's posts again, expect more from me either soon or in the morning.

[mormegil]

Here is my outline of thoughts

TGWBS--Too eager to jump on killing Nilp. Though I agree it is good to have both of the most enigmatic players gone. While I don't like to see innocents dead, if I had to pick some that's a good choice. I can see one side of TGWBS saying "Nilp wants to die anyway and he's confusing so at least we won't get a gifted" but it could be very wolvish as well. However, something is not sitting right with him to me. I'll keep a close eye on him though probably won't vote him. Additionally thought that the wolves killed Fea because they suspected her to be the seer. I don't see how anybody could think Fea the seer by declaring that. Not even Fea would be bold enough to try that one.

Saurreg--Not too much to gone with but not over suspicious at this point. Probably innocent.

Kitanna--Gut feeling and reaction to her posts may be guilty but I'm just not sure yet. I'm leaving her in my neutral category until further evidence either way.

Encaitare--Red flags are going all over with her. But I have been wrong before. Her behavior just isn't sitting right with me. I may vote her.

Oddwen--Honestly I've gone back and forth on her just like dancing spawn. One minute I'm sure she guilty the next I think she's innocent. I'd like to know what others think.

Elf-warrior--Either a wolf or misguided innocent. He's in my suspect category but I'll probably not vote for him today. Give him a chance to prove his possible innocence.

LMP--It's always dangerous to defend somebody but I believe him to be innocent.

Durelin--Still highly suspect. Playing it very smoothly and cool which makes me suspicious. Not offering too much by way of opinion wants to keep the spotlight off her and yet keep active. May vote her again.

Wilwarin--I'm not as convinced of her innocence as was Fea. A bold wolf could kill somebody that thought her innocent and hope that somebody, another wolf perhaps, points out that no wolf would do that. This would implicate a TGWBS/Wilwarin team. Unless, of course, TGWBS is the victim of her ploy which I don't think is the case. I may vote her too.

Dancing Spawn--See Oddwen

TORE--Just like LMP I believe his behavior is consistent with an innocent man.

Eomer--A bit of a dandy the way he prances around. Possibly the Scarlet Pimpernel but not guilty.

Kath--Her RL explination makes sense (ah the joys of being an adult and not having to ask your parents, but rather being one ) but it could easily be an excuse given to cover her furry tracks. Possibly guilty category for you.

Lhuna and Oromin--Not enough to go on so currently neutral but will move to guilty if I don't hear something of substance very soon.

[Saurreg]

Please take note, fellow villagers, that I stood back and watched during the lynching of the innocent Nilpaurion. I told you but you would not listen. You who voted for him have no one to blame but yourselves. Why, oh why, does "lynch me" seem to always be obeyed? Will foolish, unenlightened blood-lusting villagers always be swayed by such harmless insanity? As you all now know, Nilpaurion was not in his right mind, or perhaps it would be better stated that he had two too many minds in one head, which is to say that indeed he was crazy, and maybe even wanted to die, but he was not a werewolf, and most of you who voted for him knew it. For shame.

Yarrrhhh, suuuuurrree. Blam it un dah mob den. But yer wun ketch d'ish ol' koot covarin' 'is backside und finding excooses. Me 'll put it on rekord dat me voted fur dat no good wulf breedah und me iez proud of it! 'e was up to no good from dah start und his replies were kunfusing to say dah lest. 'e either wus a wulf fishin' fur a big one ur he was just another irritating, no sense of unity villager out to sabo und hinder ou' kollectif efforts. Good riddance!

Me cannae help but agree dat dah murdah of lit' Fea served lit' purpose. Dah fact wus she pointed at too many folks yes'tday to find time or klause to target at one single villager to haf been a threat to dah wulves. Had seeh singled out one of us from dee start ur somewhere from dah middle wif dah tena'sity of a pitbull, den we would haf somethung to go about wif. But alas, seeh lived 'er short life in a whirlwind of trooths und lies so mixed up dat dis'h ol' man cannae tell whether seeh was serious or not...

Too mana people in dis'h village me tell yer. Und if anyone of yer tells me yer can pinpoint to a wulf wif certainty, then yer a lying stuffed comodore or a wulf yerself. Dah wulves gut lotsa hiding places in sucha huge crowd, 'ill be diffkult to root 'em out.

Fur now, 'ill keep me eyes out un dah death header Durelin und Wil. Dah flower gurl's pretty active yes'tday compared to others und me doubt 'ere 'll be a dif today. Me always sez, loook out fur 'ose who appear to be extra busy, extra talkative und of curz appearing veri ani... ana... loooking into things! Pay close attention to how true her words are, me no trust her.

Und Wil, she be pretty careless about Fea's death. Whistling dis'h und dat. A tad gleeful?

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Encaitare--Red flags are going all over with her. But I have been wrong before. Her behavior just isn't sitting right with me. I may vote her.

I hope this does not prove self-incriminating, but I am forced to wonder what behavior of mine is so suspicious that you're considering voting for me, morm.

Nothing I have said or done is worse than anything that others have said or done. I have made my observations and cast my vote. I'm starting to think that you are turning on me because I have mentioned being suspicious of you.

[The Only Real Estel]

Posted by Kitanna about Oddwen:

Glad to see two innocent villagers dead? That can't possibly be normal.

This would be disturbing but I see it from this point of view: You can't possibly tell me that you're not glad to see that there's only two 'ordinary' villagers dead & not our hunter & our seer or something like that. That's what I'm assuming Oddwen was talking about.

Personally, I'm a little suspicious of Oromin and Lhuna for their lack of posting. I know Lhuna is in a different time zone, but she's only posted once (by my count) & Oromin has only posted twice. Not that I can declare them wolves for this, but at the very least I'm watching them.

Here's a quick synopsis of things that have happened that I deem important (on the first day only, I'm afraid) & my suspicions (which I really have none of right now):

Dancing Spawn - jokes about lynching Saurreg because of his difficult-to-understand posts, thinks the wolves might be The Elf-warrior, wilwa and mormegil (#82), begans to voice suspicious of Wilwa (#87), partially pardons Elf-warrior & wilwa (#109), doesn't want to vote for Nilp for the same reasons as me (still #109), votes for Durelin (#115)

Durelin - suggests that we talk over who to Guard & who to dream about (#78), feels like voting for Morm because he is suspicious of her (#84), votes for Morm (#93)

Elf-warrior - Defends Fea & Lhuna, suspicious of Dancing Spawn, TGWBS, & Nilp (#101), votes for TGWBS (#105)

Encai - Suspicious of Nilp & a little bit suspicious of Morm, put some stock in Fea's morm/emoer/kitanna theory (#100), votes for Nilp (#119)

Eomer - Defends Morm (#9), has a 'feeling' that Nilp is innocent (#71), wonders why Morm has included Elf-Warrior in his list is slightly troubled by Fea (#83), is somewhat suspicious of Wilwa (#88), concludes that he has found Wilwa not likely to be a wolf (#94), Excuses Fea (#98), & Morm at least until later (#99), wonders if Durelin's suggestion of the seer & guardian being discussed is an innocent one or not (would a wolf bring this out against a fellow wolf? probably not) (#114), thinks Durelin might get herself lynched by continuing to act 'this way' but suspects that she is probably innocent, votes for Oddwen (#122)

Feanor - Minds games as usual, advices to watch out for Nilp hiding behind his normal self & suspects that Wilwa is innocent (#58), suspicious of TGWBS, Theory1- Lhuna/Oddwen/Saurreg as wolves, trying to take out innocent Nilp. LMP is Seer in this scenario. Role thinly veiled with astrology talk. Perhaps morm as Seer? Theory2- Mormegil/Eomer/Kitanna as wolves. They all defend Mormegil (knowing that defending would be stupid for wolves, they all did it to throw us off the track- #74) suggests lynching Lhuna & Saurreg (Saurreg jokingly) (still #74), votes for Nilp despite the fact that she 'doesn't think he's guilty' because she 'would hate for him to win the game as a wolf behind the cloak of normalacy' (that's more or less what she said ) (#95)

Kath - Told TGWBS that it's to early to be throwing death plans around (#19), defended Fea, goes after TGWBS again for jokes & going after Elf-Warrior on a 'whim' (#68 & #70), does not vote

Kitanna - Defends Morm (#10), jokes about voting for Saurreg, suspicious of TGWBS & a little worried about Fea (#81), suspicious of Fea & Guy for 'silly & pointless reasons', suspicious of morm, thinks Nilp is probably innocent, says Wilwa bears watching, votes for Nilp (#102)

Lhuna - Howls like a wolf? does not vote...

LMP - Seems to half-suspect Lhuna (#33), talks about 'star charts' and how 'reliable' they are (#66), wonders why people who don't suspect Nilp vote for him (here, here!), says that Eomer, Morm, Wilwa, Spawn, and Saurreg are probably innocent & that Saurreg is the sherrif (unlikely I think), finds Fea likely innocent, votes for TGWBS (#107)

Mormegil - Proposes random method (#32), defends Fea, suspects Saurreg, suspection lists- 1.Durelin 2.Elf-warrior 3.Encai 4.Saurreg & 1.Kath 2.Dancing Spawn 3.Oddwen 4.Oromin 5.TGWBS (#75), says Durelin & Elf-warrior are acting somewhat the same but he's more suspicious of Durelin (#97), votes for Durelin insisting that it's NOT a knee-jerk reaction (#113)

Nilp - Says he's "NOT THE COBBLER", votes for himself,


Oddwen - accuses Nilp, suspicious of Wilwa & TGWBS, somewhat suspicious of Morm & Saurreg (#77)


Oromin - not much to go on, does not vote


Saurreg - After Nilp (#55), votes for Nilp (#90)


TGWBS - Jokingly suggests mass-suicide, then jokingly accuses most of the people in the village (#44), votes for Nilp because he's 'going to confuse me anyway' & he wants to get his lynch rate up, suggests Nilp is hiding behind his 'normal way' of doing things (#91)


TORE - My innocence is for others to decide, though I will say truthfully that I am not the seer (if you couldn't tell that from my complete lack of suspicions!)

Wilwa - Quick to jump on Morm for being 'bloodthirsty' (#8), 'bad feeling' about Morm & TGWBS (#72), votes for Mormegil (#112)


Edit:

And also:
Posted by Elf-Warrior:

I doubt Fea or Lhuna are wolves. Fea seems to be making sense. Lhuna howled like a wolf, you say? Well, where I come from there's a saying, "Live with wolves howl like a wolf."

That sounds mostly like a defense of Lhuna, & an interesteing sounding one at that. Almost as if he's making a saying up to support Lhuna because there's no other evidence. Right now I'm thinking that either Elf-Warrior & Lhuna are wolves (unlikely), Elf-Warrior is the seer & used his dream on Lhuna (unlikely), or perhaps Elf-Warrior & Lhuna are our Sherrifs. I'd be curious on everyone else's thoughts on that...