Tol-in-Gaurhoth VII (The Saga goes ever on and on)

[Kitanna]

I'm tempted to vote for Saurreg, simply because I can't understand half of what he said. But that would be a waste of my vote because I don't find him all that suspicious.

Reading through what everyone has said I find TGWBS to be a little suspicious. Not using your abacus? I'm shocked and horrified.
I'm watching Fea too. She was a dirty liar before, there's no telling if she's a liar now...
But I don't know if I find those two so suspicious that I'll vote for them today.

I'll probably do the Estel thing and pull someone randomly.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Here's my little leaky scenario.

The wolves are The Elf-warrior, wilwa and mormegil. Why, you ask. Because:
Elf-warrior defended morm in his first post and so did wilwa. After twelve minutes wilwa said that she thinks mormegil's eagerness to kill is suspicious. It was like they had suddenly remembered that they were supposed to keep it schtum.

After that mormegil suspects Elf-warrior. Elf-warrior is on second place in mormegil's list so he doesn't actually have to vote for him today. Tomorrow he can have another suspects and if Elf-warrior is a wolf, mormegil can defend himself with his suspicion list.

Wilwarin keeps repeating that she is confused (three times in a row). I think it's rather suspicious. "Oh, I couldn't be a wolf, I'm a first timer." Hmm...

The Elf-warror has posted quite many times but he doesn't really say anything. He promised to comment his suspicions and voting later... I look forward to that.


Saurreg and lmp, I don't want to see either of you dead (yet). I thought that winking smileys would tell that I wasn't entirely serious in my comments of you. Guess not.

I had to read Saurreg's last post thrice, though, before I understood it. Is "o'relly" already? Couldn't figure that one out.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Fea, I did defend Morm but that was from a mirthful remark right at the start. More telling perhaps is that I threw doubt on the merit of his plan of randomly picking a villager to lynch.

And this:

I am slightly troubled by Morm's list. Why he has, on a number of occasions, mentioned The Elf-Warrior as seeming suspicious, I cannot fathom.

As for Saurreg, he appears to be mixing some Scots into his dialogue, thus I can understand him better than all of you. I don't think he's suspicious at all. But then, I'm not sure if I'm finding anyone really suspicious at the moment.

Except maybe Fea. Honestly though, her list troubles me slightly because it does not distinguish between serious theories and clear mirth.

So Fea and Mormegil are at the top of my list, even though I reckon they're probably both innocent. I'm really sorry guys but there is so little to go on. Still, I eagerly await your defence of my feeble accusations. I think I could be easily swayed on this day.

[Durelin]

All suspicions are leaky...though what you say makes sense.

Though I guess at this point most anything makes sense....

At this point I'm tempted to vote for Morm simply because he's suspicious of me, for no reason as I can tell.

*Note: cross-posted with Eomer

[The Only Real Estel]

Spawn: I had thought of Wilwa as possibly being a wolf because of the way she jumped at the chance to accuse Mromegil based on his earliest post but I'm thinking it was more of a 'someone has to cast the first stone' type of decision.

At any rate I should have my vote in about an hour to an hour and a half.

[the guy who be short]

The day grows old.

++Nilpaurion Felagund

He's gonna confuse me anyway. Best get rid of him once and for all (and get his lynch rate up to a semi-respectable 67%).

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by The Only Real Estel

Spawn: I had thought of Wilwa as possibly being a wolf because of the way she jumped at the chance to accuse Mromegil based on his earliest post but I'm thinking it was more of a 'someone has to cast the first stone' type of decision.

But why would a confused first timer want to cast the first stone?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

You intrigue me spawn: the butterfly might well be worth a gamble. I'll go back now and read all her posts.

Does anyone actually think that Nilp is a werewolf? I seriously doubt it. He voted for himself.

[The Only Real Estel]

Good question. I would assume a first timer would be more likely to jump at straws then vets, and she may not have been confused at first. I'm not sure actually, I'd love to here from her about this...

edit: cross-posting with Eomer

[Saurreg]

I canna stay for long, me flock needs tending to. Can yer hear them mangy wulf howling o'relly?

So before me go, me kast me vote:

++sus'pis wulf breedah, Nilp

've yer a stinking wulf, may yer flesh rut und skin fawl uff!

If not, at least yer'll pay for dah krimes of yer fawl dogs!

Oooh Mary, Patty, Baa Baa and Firefoot!!! Maye d'ish day bring yer innocent souls justis'h.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Eomer

Does anyone actually think that Nilp is a werewolf? I seriously doubt it. He voted for himself.

What better way to disguise himself. For a lack of anybody else saying "lynch me, I'm a wolf" I'm going with Nilpy.

[wilwarin538]

Elf-warrior defended morm in his first post and so did wilwa. After twelve minutes wilwa said that she thinks mormegil's eagerness to kill is suspicious. It was like they had suddenly remembered that they were supposed to keep it schtum.

I was actually more agreeing with him then defending him.

Wilwarin keeps repeating that she is confused (three times in a row). I think it's rather suspicious. "Oh, I couldn't be a wolf, I'm a first timer." Hmm...

The one time when I said I was confused it was because Guy I believe had a post that was very repetitive and I was just making a joke. The other time it was because I truly didn't understand the Cobbler's job. I don't remember what the third one was.

I will be voting soon. I have a feeling it might be for Morm, unless someone says something that changes my mind.

~Wilwa of the numbers aka Madame Butterfly

[Durelin]

I do wish I could just lynch everyone...would be so much simpler and less confusing.

Estel's talked about how it's a 'shot in the dark' on the first day....and this time, Morm's the one in the dark getting shot in my metaphorical darkness with my metaphorical bullet.

++Mormegil

I have no idea....I just need to get back to my flowers. And he said I was suspicious, for no reason...so here's a reason for you to say I'm suspicious, deary.

I was really tempted to take up the 'everyone votes for themselves' plan, but Nilp's doing too well with that...didn't want to take away from his glory.

~Durelin not-a-wolf-but-more-like-the-hunter-or-seer-dead-header

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ok, I've read wilwa's posts and she doesn't really give me the chills. Her questioning of Morm was a nothing post, the kind of which we all make at the start of the DAY 1. Her most confusing post is actually #72, in which she seems baffled by the nature of what she calls 'random accusations'. Now, this strikes me as probably a youngster's naivety. The accusations are not really random wilwa; they are designed to gauge reactions.

wilwa then says she has a bad feeling about Morm and tgwbs. Here she offers completely random accusations. This would be a ridiculous thing for a wolf to do. She does not overly concern me.

It's still Mormegil and Fea who I'd like to hear from. I'll be here until voting is over so if you need me to repeat my pathetic accusations then I'll do it for you; it's the least you deserve!

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

As for Saurreg, he appears to be mixing some Scots into his dialogue, thus I can understand him better than all of you.

I kin understan'h 'im, ih's jus' the posting equivilin'h of readin'h the Silm, and when I wan' t' figure stuff ou', I like The Hobbi'h.

Except maybe Fea. Honestly though, her list troubles me slightly because it does not distinguish between serious theories and clear mirth.

The reason I didn't draw a clear line between serious theories and mirth is because it is very easy to go back and say "well I hid my serious theory inside of mirth just so I wouldn't be killed before I had a chance to back up my ideas". The same way as it is easy to mistake a joke for something serious. Also, with all of our villagers who are inexperienced in the ways of death-dealing, a joke is just as likely to sway a vote as seriousness is.

Now, my doves, I have to vote. I'd love to stay and chat some more, but I've got to pack.

Since we have no hard evidence of anything, I'm going to say that we should lynch ++ NILP.

Though I doubt his guilt, it would be sickeningly easy for him to hide his wolvery behind his please-lynch-me facade. If we refrained from killing him because we assumed it impossible that a wolf would vote for himself, it would play into wolvish hands, should he have them. Also, if I'm wrong, I'll remain his hero for trying to boost his lynch rate up to 67%.

Try not to kill me whlie I'm gone. See ya Friday morning.

Obligatory lie: I'm going to ace my foreign language placement test tomorrow.

EDIT: lots of cross-posts.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Wilwa, this was the third one: "I'm guessing this game can be confusing some times?"

The problem with Nilp is that he's just being himself and he could be anybody. I repeat, anybody. His behaviour is a perfect disguise no matter what he is.

I'll be back before the nightfall and I'll cast my vote then. I want to hear something from mormegil and Elf-warrior first.

[mormegil]

Eomer, I am slightly confused when you say I repeatedly mention Elf-warrior. I could be wrong but I think I've only mentioned him once. However he was mentioned by others perhaps you are confused on that.

Anyway if I look suspicious to you lot that's fine. I just ask who will be doing your killing for you? I found Saurreg's vehemence at my accusation interesting. Durelin has posted some but not given much to go on (that's why I find you suspicious) and your recent post seem to solidify my suspicions of you. Trying to redirect suspision on he who cast it upon you.

Elf-warrior is acting similar to Durelin though I am less suspicious of him.

Encai simply gave a short post with little to go on. I'm not a fan of that. I like some substance.

My second list, I suspect them because they just don't seem to sit right with me. I'm not sure what that means but something to think about for me anyway.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Fea is excused. See? I didn't really suspect you that much. And you made a good point about mirth being intrinsically linked to serious voting; I should know that better than anyone.

I'd love to hear from Morm soon. As it stands it seems Nilp is going to die anyway. Maybe it's for the best. I'll hopefully get to query Morm tomorrow even if he doesn't show up today. He's worth watching, in my view. His list of suspicion baffles me.

Edit to add: just saw morm's post. Will comment soon.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I must announce that I have done Mormegil a disservice: he has indeed only mentioned The Elf-Warrior once. I was getting confused with something or other. For that I am sorry. It was an honest mistake. I'll try to find the source of this.

Hmm, I'll go back and think about your list Morm. I think you might be off the hook now.

Sorry, again.

[Encaitare]

Encai simply gave a short post with little to go on. I'm not a fan of that. I like some substance.

Suspect me not, for I have been about, following the responses for a good part of the morning. It just so happened that my computer crapped out while I was replying. So here is what I was going to say:

Nilp makes me uneasy. He could just be messing with our heads, and I'm not familiar with strategies he may have used in the past. He quite frankly confuses me with his suicidal tendencies, so wolf or not, he ought to just get out of the way. If he were someone important who could help the villagers, then I don't think he'd act so reckless.

mormegil has been at the center of attention for a while, which makes me a wee bit suspicious.

Originally Posted by Fea

Mormegil/Eomer/Kitanna as wolves. They all defend Mormegil.

This seems to make some sense to me at the moment, though Nilp remains at the top of my list. I'll be observing for a bit longer, and I'll get my vote in soon.

[The Elf-warrior]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

Elf-warrior defended morm in his first post and so did wilwa.

Wot! Actually, I chided mormegil not to rush to judgment in my first post, post 4. Then, I defended mormegil in post 25. You might be confused, you might be a wolf. I doubt Fea or Lhuna are wolves. Fea seems to be making sense. Lhuna howled like a wolf, you say? Well, where I come from there's a saying, "Live with wolves howl like a wolf." I'm not really suspicious of lmp. After all he might just be trying a random method of finding wolves.

Anything now is guesswork but I'm suspicious of TGWBS, Dancing Spawn and ?? Nilp.

I'll vote soon and then I'll be gone till the next DAY.

[Kitanna]

So far:
Nilp
Himself
Fea
Saurreg
TGWBS

Morm
Durelin

TGWBS
Oddwen

Personally I think Nilp is just being himself and is innocent. As for Morm, well I'm always suspicious of that sneaky man. I defended his orignal blood lust because he is the town executioner, but I won't vote for him today. I'd rather watch him a little first. And the The Guy, well I'm suspicious of him too, but only for silly and pointless reasons. I'm suspicious of Fea for those same silly and pointless reasons.

Wilwa deserves watching. She may be hiding behind the first timer thing. But it is the first day and her confusion is relatively understandable. If her "confusion" continues well into Day 2 then I think we may have a wolf.

It seems Nilp is headed for the ax anyway. This is a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. We could lynch him and he could well be innocent, oops. Or we don't lynch him and he lives 'til the end and we villagers lose. But then again it could be vice versa. He's innocent, lives 'til the end we villagers win. Mmmmm, tough choice.

Originally Posted by Fea

If we refrained from killing him because we assumed it impossible that a wolf would vote for himself, it would play into wolvish hands, should he have them.

I agree with Fea. So I must cast my vote.

++ Nilp

It seems your headed there anyway.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Interesting theory, this Morm/Eomer/Kitanna alliance. It goes something like this:

Morm: "I'm the executioner, let's get to work!"

Someone else (Elf-Warrior? Wilwa?): "A bit eager for bloodshed, Morm?"

Eomer: "It's ok, he's the executioner."

Kitanna: *crossposting, I believe* "He's the executioner; he's bloodthirsty by nature."

Every other rational person: "O yea. It's right at the start of the game where role-playing is all we have to amuse ourselves with."


How very suspicious indeed!

[The Only Real Estel]

Well it looks like there's a good chance that Nilp will be the one to be hung but I'm not going to jump on that bandwagon. It seems that the main evidence against him is that we are afraid of his mindgames, and besides, he...uh, might be a wolf. The problem with this method is what if he's a gifted villager? What if we end up hanging our seer on day one just because we were unnerved by him acting like he always does? I agree that we shouldn't just give him a free pass on the 'be yourself is all that you can be' (gah, I can't get rid of that song!) basis, but I had planned on checking him again on day two or three, when we at least had some more comments and some votes to go on. Oh well, it looks to late anyway.

Wilwa, your explanation mostly satisfied me, though I think you might still bear some watching.

I am not feeling very happy with TGWBS for being the first to jump on the Nilp bandwagon (started by Nilp himself). I don't buy the whole, 'I don't see anyone who volunteered himself' to be lynched theory at all. If Nilp is an ordinary villager he may actually have been doing us all a service by voting for himself. If he knew that he wouldn't be able to vote later but had nothing to go on now he voted for someone he knew to be ordinary, rather than accidently guide suspicions in the direction of a guardian or somebody else.

[The Elf-warrior]

Time is running out for me so I'll vote for
++TGWBS If you are not a wolf, sorry. See you all the next DAY.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

If Nilp is gifted then, in the future, my ghost will make his ghost's afterlife a nightmare (and I suspect the ghosts of every other villager will do likewise).

It's looking like he's going to die first. If he's innocent he had better be ordinary...

[littlemanpoet]

If you think Nilp is innocent, then why bloody vote for him? Because you're a werewolf?

My prognostications inform me that Nilp is as innocent as the sky is blue, and that we must leave him alive long enough to see his endgame. Dare to go against the heavens, you miscreants!

Further prognostications inform me that Eomer, Morm, Wilwa, Spawn, and Saurreg are probably innocent. Eomer's endgame must be allowed to play out. Saurreg is a shirriff. Wait and see.

There are a few people who are hiding behind fair skin. I trust them not, nor do the stars.

++ the guy who be short

He is as wolfish as the day is long.

Feanor, say the heavens, may be a liar, but she can't help but make sense, at which times her words are trustworthy though dressed in dissembling.

So say the heavens. Demean and deplore them at your own risk.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by The Only Real Estel

and besides, he...uh, might be a wolf. The problem with this method is what if he's a gifted villager? What if we end up hanging our seer on day one just because we were unnerved by him acting like he always does?

Do you think the Seer would really be running around screaming "LYNCH ME! LYNCH! DO IT NOW!" On the first day? I don't think the Seer would even dream of voting for him/herself...ever.

If Nilp is an ordinary villager he may actually have been doing us all a service by voting for himself. If he knew that he wouldn't be able to vote later but had nothing to go on now he voted for someone he knew to be ordinary, rather than accidently guide suspicions in the direction of a guardian or somebody else.

This may be true, but we have no way of knowing for sure.

EDIT: I'd like to add though Nilp said he was innocent he might simply have been trying to confuse us. As I said, damned if you do, damned if you don't.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

The Elf-warrior and wilwa, I'm so sorry, you're absolutely right. I wasn't careful enough while searching your posts. Sorry. But that doesn't mean that I'll abandon my theory.

I don't want to vote for Nilp for the same reasons as Estel.

Some people have remained really silent today but I think it's understandable since no-one has anything certain to say...maybe.

I'll vote soon.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

This is so difficult. I'm sure we are all familiar with the strategy of lynching ordinary villagers as being preferable to lynching gifted villagers. In theory this idea sounds OK at first but delve deeper and you discover that the strategy does not offer a hell of a lot more than voting honestly, and openly declaring who you think the wolves are.

I really don't think Nilp is a wolf. I am understanding of why people are voting for him but it wouldn't feel right to go against my heart like this. I just can't vote for someone I have zero suspicion for. I'm not sure how much this will matter though because time is running out and it's hard to say how many votes will actually be received.

[The Only Real Estel]

posted by Kitanna:

Do you think the Seer would really be running around screaming "LYNCH ME! LYNCH! DO IT NOW!" On the first day? I don't think the Seer would even dream of voting for him/herself...eve

Which is exactly why Nilp might do it. He probably wouldn't though, that's a good point; but I could still see him having a lesser gifted role & doing what he did.

Posted by Kitanna:

This may be true, but we have no way of knowing for sure.

Which is why I was going to check back once we had more to work with.

Posted by Kitanna:

EDIT: I'd like to add though Nilp said he was innocent he might simply have been trying to confuse us. As I said, damned if you do, damned if you don't.

He could've been. But with a few more days & more evidence we would've had a better idea. Personally, I'd be very suprised if Nilp was a wolf. If you think he's innocent than don't bandwagon, vote for either TGWBS or someone else totally different - the worst thing you could do would be bandwagon just because 'it looks like he's going to die'.

Edit: Perhaps I've come on to strong on TGWBS, I have no evidence against him other than him jumping at Nilp, but I can see from his point of view on that. I just don't buy it. I would like to revist his case a few days from now, but if I do that Nilp will probably die. *Sigh* I hate all these decisions, I'd better have a quick smoke.

[wilwarin538]

Ok well I think I'll vote know and see what happens.

++Mormegil

~Wilwa

[mormegil]

I am going to stick with who I feel most guilty.

++DURELIN

This may look like a knee-jerk reaction, however remember please that I initially suspected her and yet she admitted she was voting for me simply because I voted for her.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Durelin also suggested we debate who the Seer should dream about and who the Guardian should protect. She has since been quiet about our lack of activity on that front. I am still pondering this idea. I can't quite figure out if this is a genuine innocent's idea. Is she trying to pinpoint the Seer?

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by The Only Real Estel

*Sigh* I hate all these decisions, I'd better have a quick smoke.

Beware! Halflings' leaf may slow your mind.

I would feel more comfortable if lmp and Elf-warrior had given reasons for their votes for TGWBS.

Ok, I don't have much time left (well, none of us has) so here goes nothing.
++DURELIN. And that's because of the reasons that Eomer said and because she has posted really often but she hasn't really said anything. Sorry, but that's my vote today.

[Firefoot]

You only have 20 minutes left, and six of you have not voted. You can't all wait till the last minute, you know.

[The Only Real Estel]

Well, I see no reason for waiting any longer to vote. I'm not voting for Nilp and though I was disappointed that TGWBS touched off the voting on said resident-suspicioner I have no reason other than that to suspect him of guilt. In fact I see no one that I'm sure of, so I will vote for ++Oromin, and the only 'reason' I can give for that is that he/she (sorry) has only posted once. But I don't expect to see Oro lynched anyway, so I won't feel guilty about that reasoning...

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by The Only Real Estel

If you think he's innocent than don't bandwagon, vote for either TGWBS or someone else totally different - the worst thing you could do would be bandwagon just because 'it looks like he's going to die'.

That's quite true, but I went back to Nilp's post to read and reread and reread once more for good measure. 50% of me thinks he is a wolf, just trying to trick us. 40% of me thinks he's a regular old villager trying to save a gifted villager. 10% of me thinks he's the cobbler. Only I don't think the cobbler would volunteer to be lynched on day one. But I am an easily swayed person. I may yet change my vote, but for now I keep my vote for Nilp.

[Encaitare]

Very well.

++Nilpaurion "Kill Me Now" Felagund

[The Only Real Estel]

I may yet change my vote, but for now I keep my vote for Nilp

Irretractable votes. But that's okay, I guess, he's gone anyway. Let's just hope he's either a wolf (unlikely to me), an ordinary villager (hopefully), or a cobbler (unlikely to me).

By the way, Firefoot, I know with the Cursed Villager the villagers don't know they've hung the Cursed. If Nilp is the cobbler will we know it or will he just look like an innocent villager until the end of the game?