Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Kitanna]

For someone so against, or possible skeptical of their use to him, Boro certainly has made a few. All of which kind of say the same thing. "These are people under the radar, these are people I think are wild cards, etc."

Originally Posted by Boro

Boromir88 (Chime in with whatever floats your boats)

Speaks and seems logical on the surface, but on delving deeper, doesn't really say much.

Originally Posted by Mac

I find it funny how Legate was all reasonable and discuss-the-matter originally, and now he goes after all the people who cast that little bit of shadow on him.

His response does seem like a natural response when a player comes under fire like he did. Not to say I absolve him, but it doesn't strike me as overly wolfy behavior.
In the whole Legate, G55, and Pitch discussion I'd wager there's a wolf hidden, setting up two innocents to take the bait. Yet each time I read back, I switch who I think is most likely the wolf.
I thought Legate might be the innocent party until post #88
Something about the whole post feels, I don't know, contrived? I can't place my finger on it. Like G55 it feels like he's distancing himself from the fake DL, fake vote discussion.
I'm finding it hard to explain why this sets me off, but I'm going to try in the most coherent way.
Legate drew a lot of attention, but I didn't really feel many were overly suspicious of him. There's been some talk, but nothing to indicate everyone is convinced and ready to bandwagon. I'd say more people raised eyebrows toward G55 and Pitch, myself included, because of how G55 distanced herself from her idea and how Pitch threw it all into Legate's lap. In all that, Legate did look like a misguided, attempting to be helpful innocent. But maybe that's how he wants to be viewed? He's been helpful, at least, in stirring up conversation. And yet, his list post of his thoughts in #88 just rings of false platitudes and him trying to put himself under the radar again. He came, he made a lot of noise, and now just there with a list.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

The only logical reason a wolf would swing a last-minute vote from a non-wolf would be to protect a fellow wolf; it's far too early in the game to sacrifice a packmate (unless they play a bold game since there are a lot of them anyway). And with a village this large, the odds are still higher that votes will be cast against an innocent than a wolf.

Not necessarily. I've been in games where a wolf was lynched on Day 1 and a packmate went unsuspected for a long time because they were partly responsible for lynching them. It's certainly a risky move, but can pay off for a wolf who is daring enough.

FYI, I am doing my best to keep up here, but seeing that I'm in the midst of my workday up until deadline, my participation is limited.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Defend, hm? Just jokingly summarizing the initial conversation. I was curious to see what sort of reaction it would get, though.

And I jokingly called you out on deliberately summarizing incorrectly. This only serves to sow confusion and derail the village, or give people (you most of all) an excuse to vote based on, frankly, false grounds if the vote is based off this post. My point still stands.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I was referring to not voicing serious suspicions before the QT vote, which would make for a very unproductive day, no trails, lazy justifications. and a good environment for wolves to hide, which is why (I hope) innocents will avoid doing it.

Ah, gotcha. Agreed.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I also disagree with Gal about lists being vague and useless. I personally find them quite helpful; without them it’s easy to stick to talking about the loudest, most controversial villagers and topics and let others fly under the radar completely. This tends to serve wolves better than innocents since odds are at least some of them are among the quiet, less attention-seeking crowd. I’m not saying everyone should do lists, just that I think they can be just as revealing as fake votes (if not more).

Oh yes, making sure you go through everyone is crucial. However, the problem with a list is it can go like this: "I find, T, U, V, W, X, Y, and Z most suspicious, but maybe not, and I'll see where the wind blows before making up my mind on my preferred candidate". Or, "I don't even know who I am suspicious of right now, everyone seems ok, my vote will be wrong anyways" (classic D1 list, no?). Having to pick one person while you make your list has the benefit of then making you have a good explanation if you change your mind.

As for wolves maintaining consistency more easily than innocents - that is true, however wolf-on-wolf wagons would be harder to do as everything often hangs so closely in the balance. Do you try to save your mate, or go against them? It becomes a lot trickier to hide those decisions.

Originally Posted by Kath

There's been some talk about Cobbler-identifying along the way as well. But the rules state that the Cobbler counts for the Innocent tally, so picking them out over finding wolves doesn't really help matters.

No one cobbler hunts over wolf hunting, but shouldn't it be a sort of secondary goal? And precisely for the reason that you say: the cobbler counts as an innocent. If you have a known cobbler, you have a known innocent. If you have a suspected cobbler, you have a suspected innocent. So you should be wary of what they say, but if it comes to voting for a suspected wolf vs a suspected cobbler, it's very useful to decide for yourself which baddie you think is which.

Originally Posted by Kath

So Pitch, Lottie, Inzil, Brinn (Brinn quite vociferously!) are firmly against the no lynch. And Pitch seems to feel Legate is the instigator of it, but really I feel that honour goes to G55. I think I'm reading Legate's comments as still with a real vote, whereas G55's suggest no actual vote. And then G55 adds to that focus on Legate.

So was G55 just putting the idea out there to see who would bite? She specifically states here (post 38 - I cannot work out this quoting thing) that she isn't in favour of her own idea. Now, Day 1 discussion can be tough. I mean look, it's her idea that's meant I can really write anything, so on the one hand this is brilliant. It's got people talking, it means there's something to say! But she does seem to be backing away from it quite sharply.

So let me clarify a couple things. There is my Post #26, where I ask a purely hypothetical question, with no intention of going through with any variant of the No Votes idea. Then comes Legate's #31, where he is quite enthusiastic, but as it turns out he was talking about a *different* variation of the idea. Therefore, he was called out on being enthusiatic about a dumb thing, but then applauded for actually being logical when he explained himself later - and why he is, in your later words, the "ringleader" of the idea. And therefore I, when asking the somewhat silly question, did not expect it to evolve to something that could be practically applied, which is why I had to give the *modified and applicable* idea some thought, just like everyone else.

So while you untangle who said what and who is the baddie behind it, try not to get tangled too. It gets messy.


Speaking of hypothetical ideas, this scenario kinda came into my mind last night. So, it's the EndGame, and alive are Wolf, Hunter (hunting the Wolf), and Ordo. Ordo dies. Wolf devours Hunter, but Hunter takes down the wolf. Does either side win?

Originally Posted by Kath

Cobbler discussion came up again. I can't work this out with my shoddy maths. So, the Cobbler counts for the innocents, but if the Cobbler ends up in the QT and their role is known, and the role of any wolves in the QT is also known, does that then advantage the wolves in terms of numbers and help them control the vote - because they all know who each other is even if they can't communicate and so would all just vote the same if that would beat/tie the vote. I was just trying to work out whether trying to keep them in the Game Thread would be a better option, because at least here they don't know who the wolves are. But then their role wouldn't be confirmed either. Ugh.

As in keeping the person you suspect as a cobbler alive on purpose? Certainly, if there is a person you suspect to be a wolf, because the cobbler doesn't count as a baddie in the tally. But surely, in terms of voting outcomes, a dead cobbler is better than a living cobbler when it comes to votes? After all, the QT just votes once collectively, which means the cobbler may or may not affect the choice of recipient. But a living cobbler always gets a vote. And gets to say a lot of things that mess with the village's head besides.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

But you didn't indicate what is that a list of. Of what? Top suspects?

I am confused by your question. Is it that my humour receptors didn't kick in yet, or are you seriously asking if that list is a suspects list - which it obviously is? Like, it's not a list of Boro's groceries. I'm just confused.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

As opposed to unplanned votes?

:-D

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Waitawhat? I only said he looked like a cobbler.

Yes, and that's just one of the problems with that post.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Speaking of overcomplicating things, where did this whole idea of waiting for guidance from the QT come from? And why would we 'always have to second-guess' the QT vote, as G55 said in #56? Unless there's a quarantined Seer AND the majority of the Cuties are innocent, the QT vote is just another vote that may be rght or wrong or misguided or driven by evil intentions like everybody else's. No way for us to know.

Yes, that's what I'm getting at. The QT vote can't be treated as a "known dead innocent" (possibly misguided, but still innocent). Because if it's the dead wolves dominating the vote, they know who to vote for. Which actually gives us more information than if the QT is innocently dominated. However, who knows what sort of chaos would be going on in the QT discussions.

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

++LHUNARDAWEN

You listened! <3

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

Hmm? Is this a slip?

I doubt it, because I can sympathize. Usually during a game I'll have at least one dream where something really weird happens in the game, and will have to check the thread to make sure it hasn't actually happened. The game does get in your head.


I am at post 104. I have probably crossed with many as it took me a loooong time to write this. Will comment on the rest in a bit, and some brief thoughts to follow.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

And I jokingly called you out on deliberately summarizing incorrectly. This only serves to sow confusion and derail the village, or give people (you most of all) an excuse to vote based on, frankly, false grounds if the vote is based off this post. My point still stands.

Are you serious or are you joking, then? So far you've started a lot of serious debate and accusations flowing with jokes.

If you're seriously suggesting my summary was meant to derail the village, well the bit about you was meant to see whether you responded with jumpy self-defense and/or whether anyone followed by suspecting you in an opportunistic way, both of which would give me/the village more to go on.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Kath

A Pitch vs Mac fight seems to be brewing ...

*cheers* Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight!

But seriously though, neither Pitch nor Mac have pinged my wolf radars as much as everyone has been shouting. I get the feeling that both camps are largely based on fabricated suspicion.


Ok, and now I'm caught up to my previous posts. There has been so much talk I feel that my eyes are glazing over and I forget who said what already.





Some Brief Thoughts:

Kath seems a bit muddled, but more the innocent-trying-to-untangle-what-actually-happened muddled.

Both Hui and Legate came back with a bit of an attitude of "how dare you not hunt wolves!", which sounds a bit pretentious and pseudo-helpful.
Legate - pinged the radar initially (but more in a cobbler than a wolf way), then seemed quite innocent after an explanation, then started looking odd again. I am missing his wishy washiness. He's too direct, if that's possible. And then I refreshed, and he's wishy washy as usual. You're being wishy washy even in your style of wishy washiness!
Hui seems reasonable on the whole, aside from the "you're wasting the Day! Quick, catch some wolves!" thing.

Boro is still weird as hell but doesn't seem to be so in a bad way.

Pitch seems to be the new bandwagon for suspicion. And I just don't see where it's coming from. However, I still am not sure what he was going on about with spreading the votes across the Day.
Similarly, Mac suspicion seems to have appeared out of thin air. I don't get it.

Zil is actually NOT giving me the Day 1 Lynch voice in my head. And I wonder why. (Which is I guess how the voice works: Zil just can't win with it ).

Lommy seems very relaxed. Too relaxed? Or just I-have-nothing-to-hide relaxed?

Meanwhile, Kitanna seems kind of tense.

I am waiting for a response from Rikae. Being curt is one thing, being deliberately wrong is another. And she just - sidesteps - the questioning from myself and Mac, like that post never happened.

Brinniel seems to post without leaving any impression. I have no memory of what she posted, and will need to go over it. She seems to not want to stick out an opinion too far - but again, I will have to read her posts over again. Doesn't give good vibes.

The Ka is another person that gives me bad vibes. She seems fake-nice. She posts like she's afraid to step on people's toes. She sounds afraid to come near the spotlight. I don't like it.

I am not sure what to make of Lhuna. On the whole, very unhelpful, especially with the vote, but I can see her acting this way as an innocent too. Also not sure what to make of the "buiseness only" people: Greenie and Eonwe. To an extent Kitanna also falls here, but she gives me a more tense vibe.

The others have either posted very little or are super under the radar.
Urwen: what do Maeglin's Elf-eyes see? Or he is secretly the cobbler?
Sally, those links will have to wait till toNight. No time for play when there are so many posts. Aaaaagh!

If I were to vote right now, it would be +- Rikae, for behaviour that stands out the most as wolfish. Obviously, this may change when I see your response, or if a huge flag comes up elsewhere.


Edit: needless to say, xed since my last.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I am waiting for a response from Rikae. Being curt is one thing, being deliberately wrong is another. And she just - sidesteps - the questioning from myself and Mac, like that post never happened.

Could you elaborate on what you're referring to here? So far, I've felt like Rikae has been straightforward and clear, and I haven't gotten a bad vibe from her at all. Also, this:

Meanwhile, Kitanna seems kind of tense.

Strikes me as a non-committal way of leaving yourself open to joining a possible bandwagon later on.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I am not sure what to make of Lhuna. On the whole, very unhelpful, especially with the vote, but I can see her acting this way as an innocent too. Also not sure what to make of the "buiseness only" people: Greenie and Eonwe. To an extent Kitanna also falls here, but she gives me a more tense vibe.

The others have either posted very little or are super under the radar.
Urwen: what do Maeglin's Elf-eyes see? Or he is secretly the cobbler?

Maybe somebody planted a false memory, but wasn’t Lhuna always a bit suicidal on day 1 back in the day ? I wouldn’t read too much into it.

Maeglin is a traitor, so why would one bring him into the fray. To me that is a cobbler hint, I didn’t bring it up earlier because I wanted us to focus on the sick.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

... unless that's the point? I dunno; I'd like to hear from some of the people who think Macalaure is dodgy, see how this post affects their thinking.

Thinking it’s dodgy might be a case of how it’s presented, but I get the impression that is just how Mac is processing or trying to make something to analyze and to do a spot check with the rest of us that they’re working on a theory. Wolves do this, sure, but a lot of villagers do this especially on Day 1 as the deadline is nearing. They appear to be throwing a dart at everything, which granted is a method I suppose if you can make it work for you. Don’t see enough solid evidence to make Mac an absolute bandwagon though.

Would enjoy a little more substance from a few others than Mac, so they’re not drowned out, but I know it’s mostly likely due to that there’s over twenty of us in here trying to talk over one another.

Some are inevitably going to be working on something, refresh the page to post, and see that they’re another page behind. With this in mind you have to sort of isolate posts by individual to who is posting around the same time as them. It makes it easier to see who is contributing, who are they speaking to, how are they speaking to their targets, and who is sort of lurking about them trying to look busy.

I know we keep saying we don’t enjoy lists… but this massive a game I’m having to keep a written log.

So far, I really have no clue on Rune or Lhuna, but I know this is due to their time restraints and I can’t fault them on that alone. I could give them a pass the first Day, but I’d be looking for more substance the second given the material they’d have to look at along with us.

Originally Posted by Rune

Maybe somebody planted a false memory, but wasn’t Lhuna always a bit suicidal on day 1 back in the day ? I wouldn’t read too much into it.

I also remember Lhuna having to step out early in game and to be completely honest, I can't in all consciousness go after someone on that either, because I've done that not once, but twice myself because of outside world responsibilities. One of the reasons I haven't played WW in almost ten years, unfortunately.

Rikae is Rikae, I’m not sensing anything out of their normal play style. I am however, not trying to let nostalgia cloud memory though...

I would like to see a little more explanation from Eonwe on their ideas since we’ve gotten past the fake-vote originator debacle. Have an interest in their deductions.

Originally Posted by Legate

That was as fishy first post as they go. "Everyone is a Wolf, hint hint not me."

Lalaith is kind of a dead end due to the lack of… anything. However, I’d like to know if they’ve read or are simply waiting to do a drive-by post and hope no one is keeping tabs.

Loslote has me curious due to the repeated fanning of compliments to Huiensoron's thinking, but I'm not seeing much contribution outside of agreeing when it comes to Hui's theories.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Strikes me as a non-committal way of leaving yourself open to joining a possible bandwagon later on.

Granted I need to read over Kit's posts more, but... These are some strong pot calling the kettle black vibes.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I am waiting for a response from Rikae. Being curt is one thing, being deliberately wrong is another. And she just - sidesteps - the questioning from myself and Mac, like that post never happened.

You crossposted with a response, although I'm not sure what you want from me or what I'm supposed to have been deliberately wrong about.

As for sidestepping, I'm here to catch wolves, not get bogged down justifying the steps I took to do so.

Anyway, right now my fake vote would go to:

++Brinniel

For immediately repeating 2 of 3 names from my list as suspicions, and then backtracking explicitly to avoid getting caught in a trap right after I explained to G55 that my post was intended as a wolf trap. That was ostensibly a reply to Mac saying the group was mostly innocent, but the coincidence is just too much for me to ignore.

I know, these are the kinds of things a wolf would definitely make sure not to do, right? Right. So much so, it could be used as cover. And an innocent doing them coincidentally? That feels like a bigger stretch to me.

[Thinlómien]

I find it incredibly funny that for all the scrutiny and ridicule Legate got for championing the mock vote idea a lot of the people are actually doing it?? Oh how the tables turn...

But yeah why the hackle not? I said it wouldn't work and maybe everyone won't do it but for what it's worth, at the moment my vote would go to

+-Boro

for reasons specified in my list post (tl;dr he's shying away from confrontations whích seems out of character and also generally doesn' have the same vibe as usual).


edit: xed with Lottie (not that anyone's really keeping track, are they?)

[Loslote]

To make it official, my mock vote:

++ Galadriel55