The Shadow of the Past - Gandalf's knowledge

[JeyEn]

Hello everyone!

So after rereading chapter II of book I, I stumbled upon something. Gandalf said he knew from the beginning Bilbo has a Great Ring (as plain it was). This obviously isn't corresponding with the favourite theory of lesser ring. No, Gandalf knew from the start he is dealing with Great Ring. But later in that chapter, he says all Great Rings are accounted for.

This "problem" just bothers me more than it should. If dealing with a Great Ring, shouldn't Gandalf do something about it? And not wait 60+ years. Why didn't he ask Elrond for advice? I understand that Bilbo seemed fine with the ring and knowing its location was probably for the best, but still - by the process of elimination, he could have started to suspect Bilbo has the One much sooner, no?

And why was Gandalf concerned by Bilbo not aging? He knew he has a Great Ring - and these rings prolongs life. It just doesn't make sense to me. I tried to ask on reddit, but nobody answered without the "lesser ring theory". Any help? If someone could explain to me this, I would really appreciate this. Thanks!

[Galadriel55]

Hi JeyEn! Welcome to the Downs!

Personally, this bothered me as well - Gandalf's insistence that he always knew, coupled with him taking no action, and also clearly coupled with actions which indicate doubt (why the trip to Minas Tirith and Isengard?). I'm sure people with better textual memory will come up with a more satisfying canonical explanation, but here is how I've been reconciling it in my head. Gandalf is boasting slightly, turning a fleeting suspicion into certainty with the sureness of hindsight. A character flaw, if you will. Perhaps more accurately was to say that a thought would enter his mind that "something is up with this ring". Perhaps even "This ring has the markings of a Great Ring". Even perhaps "What if it is THE Ring?". But then inevitably followed by "This is preposterous. There must have been a flaw in my reasoning, something I overlooked. No way this is actually true".

Gandalf, humble as he is, still occasionally likes to make grand statements about himself, and likes the occasional bit of pomp. So in hindsight, of course he saw from the very beginning that the signs all pointed this way! But in reality, he was probably plagued by a lot of doubts and was hesitant to make a rash move that would spook the "real" culprit and alert the foe, hesitant to dive for a penny and lose a pound in the process.



Addendum:

You are by far not the only one to wonder about this, and in fact this very thought has actually made it into a fanfic book. Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality is the creation of an author who combines his love for various fantasy and sci-fi classics with brilliant logic. The book can mainly be summarized by asking the question, What if things in Harry Potter had an actual logical explanation?. It's great fun, very interesting story and plot twists and fantastic humour. But he also very lovingly references some favourites along the way, and here is the pertinent excerpt, a conversation between Harry and Dumbledore:

"So to you, for now, there is but one change, and I implore you to understand its necessity. Do you recognize the book on my desk, Harry?"

The inner part of Harry was screaming and banging its head against imaginary walls, while the outer Harry turned and stared at what proved to be -

There was a rather long pause.

Then Harry said, "It is a copy of The Lord of the Rings by J. R. R. Tolkien."

"You recognized a quote from that book," said Dumbledore, an intent look in his eyes, "so I assume you remember it well. If I am mistaken, let me be corrected."

Harry just stared at him.

"It is important to understand," said Dumbledore, "that this book is not a realistic depiction of a wizarding war. John Tolkien never fought Voldemort. Your war will not be like the books you have read. Real life is not like stories. Do you understand, Harry?"

Harry, rather slowly, nodded yes; and then shook his head no.

"In particular," said Dumbledore, "there is a certain very foolish thing that Gandalf does in the first book. He makes many mistakes, does Tolkien's wizard; but this one error is the most unforgivable. That mistake is this: When Gandalf first suspected, even for a moment, that Frodo held the One Ring, he should have moved Frodo to Rivendell at once. He might have been embarrassed, that old wizard, if his suspicions had proven false. He might have found it awkward to so command Frodo, and Frodo would have been greatly inconvenienced, needing to set aside many other plans and pastimes. But a little embarrassment, and awkwardness, and inconvenience, is as nothing compared to the loss of your whole war, when the nine Nazgul swoop down on the Shire while you are reading old scrolls in Minas Tirith, and take the Ring at once. And it is not Frodo alone who would have been hurt; all Middle-Earth would have fallen into slavery. If it had not been only a story, Harry, they would have lost their war. Do you understand what I am saying?"

"Er..." said Harry, "not exactly..." There was something about Dumbledore when he was like this, which made it hard to stay properly cold; his dark side had trouble with weird.

"Then I will spell it out," said the old wizard. His voice was stern, his eyes were sad. "Frodo should have been moved to Rivendell at once by Gandalf himself - and Frodo should never have left Rivendell without guard. There should have been no night of terror in Bree, no Barrow-downs, no Weathertop where Frodo was wounded, they could have lost their entire war any of those times, for Gandalf's folly! Do you understand now what I am saying to you?"

~HPMOR Chapter 62

[Huinesoron]

I don't think we should be too harsh on Gandalf. This is what he says to Frodo about his knowledge:

Originally Posted by Shadow of the Past

‘A mortal, Frodo, who keeps one of the Great Rings, does not die, but he does not grow or obtain more life, he merely continues, until at last every minute is a weariness. And if he often uses the Ring to make himself invisible, he fades', he becomes in the end invisible permanently, and walks in the twilight under the eye of the Dark Power that rules the Rings. '

[...]‘When did I first begin to guess?’ he mused, searching back in memory. ‘Let me see - it was in the year that the White Council drove the Dark Power from Mirkwood, just before the Battle of Five Armies, that Bilbo found his ring. A shadow fell on my heart then, though I did not know yet what I feared. I wondered often how Gollum came by a Great Ring, as plainly it was - that at least was clear from the first. Then I heard Bilbo’s strange story of how he had “won” it, and I could not believe it.'

And this is what he says elsewhere:

Originally Posted by Shadow of the Past

The lore of the Elven-rings, great and small, is [Saruman's] province. He has long studied it, seeking the lost secrets of their making; but when the Rings were debated in the Council, all that he would reveal to us of his ring-lore told against my fears.

Originally Posted by Council of Elrond

[While hunting Gollum on the borders of Mordor] The memory of words at the Council came back to me: words of Saruman, half-heeded at the time. I heard them now clearly in my heart. ‘ “The Nine, the Seven, and the Three,” he said, “had each their proper gem. Not so the One. It was round and unadorned, as it were one of the lesser rings; but its maker set marks upon it that the skilled, maybe, could still see and read.”

[...] With that thought, I forsook the chase, and passed swiftly to Gondor.

[...] ‘At once I took my leave of Denethor, but even as I went northwards, messages came to me out of Lorien that Aragorn had passed that way, and that he had found the creature called Gollum. Therefore I went first to meet him and hear his tale. Into what deadly perils he had gone alone I dared not guess.’

Until the hunt for Gollum, Gandalf hadn't remembered the crucial fact that the only unadorned Great Ring was the One. Bilbo had picked up his Ring in a mine of dwarf-fighting goblins; it was entirely plausible that what he had was one of the Seven. Remember that shortly before the Ring, Bilbo and company had turned up three swords of Gondolin in a troll-cave! Given that the High Pass is close to the borders of Angmar, it could even have been one of the Nine. The edge of the Wild is exactly the sort of place the lost Rings might have turned up.

Gandalf didn't go "hey, Bilbo's got a Great Ring that can only possibly be the One, I'll leave it with him and Frodo for seventy-odd years"; he went "one of the Great Rings has emerged; Saruman's ring-lore [that I remember at this moment] tells me it's not the One, so the only danger is to Bilbo, who frankly seems fine; Hobbits are a resilient lot."

As soon as he remembered that only the One had no stone, he rode directly from the edges of Mordor to Gondor, to check the archives, because he knew that if the One had somehow, impossibly, survived after it was supposed to be destroyed or lost three thousand years earlier, it could be either Middle-earth's destruction or its salvation. He then headed directly back to the Shire, only diverting when Aragorn sent word that he'd found the key witness in the case - Gollum, who then confirmed how the Ring had survived.

hS

[Mithadan]

Welcome to the Barrow-Downs, JeyEn! An excellent first post!

I believe that Huinesoron, has this issue analyzed correctly. It is troubling that Gandalf believed that Bilbo's find was "a Great Ring, as plainly it was - that at least was clear from the first." I will add to Huisesoron's post by noting that Gandalf, at best, only believed that Sauron had either gathered the Seven or that they had been destroyed. So, having overlooked that only the One was unadorned and without a stone, he may have believed that it was one of the Seven. And he had been assured by Saruman that the One was lost permanently; that it had found its way to the sea. Even so, he concedes that it is perilous for a mortal to possess any of the Rings of Power.

I could go out on a limb and theorize that there was a distinction between, first, the lesser rings, second, the Great Rings, and third, Rings of Power, but this would be a stretch. Gandalf states "But the Great Rings, the Rings of Power, they were perilous." This seems to clearly mean that there is no distinction between the Great Rings and the Rings of Power.

[JeyEn]

So far we agreed on that Gandalf made almost perilous mistake, right? And why didn't go to Elrond for advice? I think, after all, he wanted nobody to know - words spread around quickly and maybe Sauron could hear that some hobbit in Shire has one of the Great Rings. What do you think, Huinesoron and Mithadan?

By the way, thank for you replies! It made everything much clearer. Good to be with people who actually read the book and had a thought about the same as I did!

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by JeyEn

So far we agreed on that Gandalf made almost perilous mistake, right? And why didn't go to Elrond for advice? I think, after all, he wanted nobody to know - words spread around quickly and maybe Sauron could hear that some hobbit in Shire has one of the Great Rings.

Interestingly, the Silmarillion gives a completely different angle on this whole issue: Gandalf knew exactly what was going on, had discussed it at length with Elrond, and was just straight up lying to Frodo.

Originally Posted by "Silmarillion: Of the Rings of Power

And returning to Elrond [from Dol Guldur, Gandalf] said:

'True, alas, is our guess. This is not one of the Ulairi, as many have long supposed. It is Sauron himself who has taken shape again and now grows apace; and he is gathering again all the Rings to his hand; and he seeks ever for news of the One, and of the Heirs of Isildur, if they live still on earth.’

[...] ‘Yet the One was lost,’ said Mithrandir, ‘and while it still lies hid, we can master the Enemy, if we gather our strength and tarry not too long.’

Then the White Council was summoned; and Mithrandir urged them to swift deeds, but Curunir spoke against him, and counselled them to wait yet and to watch.

‘For I believe not,’ said he, ‘that the One will ever be found again in Middle-earth. Into Anduin it fell, and long ago, I deem, it was rolled to the Sea. There it shall lie until the end, when all this world is broken and the deeps are removed.’

Therefore naught was done at that time, though Elrond’s heart misgave him, and he said to Mithrandir: ‘Nonetheless I forebode that the One will yet be found, and then war will arise again, and in that war this Age will be ended. Indeed in a second darkness it will end, unless some strange chance deliver us that my eyes cannot see.’

[After the Council was summoned again, Gandalf said:] ‘It is not needed that the Ring should be found, for while it abides on earth and is not unmade, still the power that it holds will live, and Sauron will grow and have hope. The might of the Elves and the Elf-friends is less now than of old. Soon he will be too strong for you, even without the Great Ring; for he rules the Nine, and of the Seven he has recovered three. We must strike.’

[After Sauron was driven back to Mordor:] Now by fortune and his vigilance Mithrandir first learned of the Ring, ere Sauron had news of it; yet he was dismayed and in doubt. For too great was the evil power of this thing for any of the Wise to wield, unless like Curunir he wished himself to become a tyrant and a dark lord in his turn; but neither could it be concealed from Sauron for ever, nor could it be unmade by the craft of the Elves. Therefore with the help of the Dunedain of the North Mithrandir set a watch upon the land of the Periannath and bided his time.

So Gandalf knew where all of the other Great Rings were, figured out what Bilbo had (probably when he noticed he'd stopped aging), and decided the best plan was to lock down the Shire and bide his time. Which is pretty much what JeyEn suggested.

And I think that final passage shows why he didn't move the thing somewhere safe: any of the Wise who were around the Ring for significant periods would inevitably be corrupted and take it. Galadriel spent about five minutes with it and nearly went full Maleficent; Saruman would have had it the instant he next visited Rivendell. As long as Sauron didn't find it (and it's not like he could sense it at long distances, or feel it being used or anything), the Ring was safe in the Shire.

My guess is that he was waiting for Aragorn to grow up. Arathorn was dead by the time the Ring came to light, and if there was to be war, an experienced adult Heir would be needed to bring Gondor into the fight. The hunt for Gollum thus becomes Aragorn's final exam: as a ranger, as a hero, as a diplomat, and as someone trusted with the greatest secret of the Third Age, the location of the One Ring.

hS

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Interestingly, the Silmarillion gives a completely different angle on this whole issue: Gandalf knew exactly what was going on, had discussed it at length with Elrond, and was just straight up lying to Frodo.

He also neglected to tell Frodo that the Witch-King was his father.


I wonder how much of this whole problem is because the Professor himself had already written a sizeable chunk of the story before he figured out that Bilbo's ring was the One, and had to retcon parts of the written narrative to make it fit. That would be an etic reason vs the emic ones given so far.

[JeyEn]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Interestingly, the Silmarillion gives a completely different angle on this whole issue: Gandalf knew exactly what was going on, had discussed it at length with Elrond, and was just straight up lying to Frodo.

So Gandalf knew where all of the other Great Rings were, figured out what Bilbo had (probably when he noticed he'd stopped aging), and decided the best plan was to lock down the Shire and bide his time. Which is pretty much what JeyEn suggested.



hS

Well he didn't know where other four rings are. I don't think that Gandalf started to suspect the Ring is The One sooner than on Bilbo's party. I still think Gandalf thought Bilbo might have one of the Seven.

We must not forget the power of Saruman's voice. Gandalf himself admitted he was lured by his voice. While maybe he had a doubt or felt a shadow, he just "knew" it isn't the One, because of Saruman.

And the Silmarillion quote doesn't say anything about Gandalf lying, if I read that correctly. He couldn't be sure if it isn't one of the Nine or Seven, how could he know that Sauron has them? (He probably learned that while investigatin after Bilbo's birthday). Besides that, god knows how many versions of that part in Silmarillion were. I would go what is written in LOTR, since Silmarillion, while being canon, was edited by Christopher. What do you think, Huinesoron?

[Mithadan]

This topic is interesting and may not have been discussed here before. I looked at the Chapter by Chapter thread for The Shadow of the Past and though that discussion ran for three pages, this specific question was not mentioned.

Let's break this down a bit. Gandalf tells Frodo that it was apparent to him from the first that Bilbo's ring was one of the Great Rings. As Huinesoron mentions, Gandalf discussed with Elrond, around TA 2851, ninety years before Bilbo finds the Ring, that all of the Great Rings had been accounted for except for the One. If Bilbo's ring was clearly a Great Ring and Gandalf knew this immediately, he should have surmised that the One had been found. Shouldn't action have been taken then?

Let's look at the possible explanations for this.

1. Gandalf did not know for certain that Sauron had gathered all of the Seven that had survived AND that the remainder had been destroyed. Gandalf actually believed that Bilbo's ring may have been one of the Seven. This requires that he have forgotten or not heard Saruman explaining that only the One had no stone (and when did this conversation take place?). However, Gandalf states his belief that it is perilous for a mortal to possess any of the Great Rings. Why would he not intervene even if he thought it was one of the Seven?

2. Gandalf did not immediately believe that Bilbo's ring was one of the Great Rings and came to suspect this later, perhaps during the Long Expected Party. In other words, Gandalf lied (or exaggerated), and initially thought the ring was one of the "lesser rings" (but he says he feels even those "essays in the craft" are dangerous for mortals).

3. JRRT made a minor error of continuity that cannot clearly be reconciled.

Thoughts? Other options?

[JeyEn]

Well in Silmarillion, he said "for he rules the Nine, and of the Seven he has recovered three. " So 4 rings were considered lost. And Gandalf could have thought that Nine and other three were maybe redistributed. What is interesting - in early draft of this chapter, Gandalf says that he firstly believed Bilbo has a lesser ring. But for some reason, Tolkien did not write that. So I doubt it was a editing mistake.

Here is the quote from early draft (I don't know how to put it in the nice box):

'Yes, I let him,' said Gandalf. 'But at first of course I did not even imagine that it was [one] of the nineteen Rings of Power: I thought he had got nothing more dangerous than one of the lesser magic rings that were once more common - and were used (as their maker intended) chiefly by minor rogues and villains, for mean wickednesses. I was not frightened of Bilbo being affected by their power. But when I began to suspect that the matter was more serious than that, I told him as much as my suspicions warranted. He knew that it came in the long run from the Necromancer. But you must remember there was the Ring itself to reckon with. Even Bilbo could not wholly escape the power of the Ruling Ring. He developed - a sentiment. He would keep it as a memento. Frankly - he became rather proud of his Great Adventure, and used to look at the Ring now and again (and oftener as time went on) to warm his memory: it made him feel rather heroic, though he never lost his power of laughing at the feeling.

'But in the end it got a hold of him in that way. He knew eventually that it was giving him "long life", and thinning him. He grew weary of it - "I can't abide it any longer", he said - but to get rid of it was not so easy. He found it hard to bring himself to it. If you think for a moment: it is not really very easy to get rid of the Ring once you have got it.'

[Huinesoron]

JeyEn - the box is the Quote function. You can access it through the rectangular speech bubble above the message entry box, or by typing your text in the appropriate tags: <QUOTE="Title">Text goes here</quote>, with the <> replaced by [], gives:

Originally Posted by Title

Text goes here

I think the fact that the early drafts have Gandalf thinking it wasn't a Great Ring points directly at a continuity error: Gandalf now knows what the Ring is, but treats it as if he doesn't. Part of the reason he was "dismayed and in doubt" in the Silm quote is because Tolkien knew that he hadn't written him to follow the most logical course of action.

But if we set that aside: I think we come back to him thinking the Ring is one of the Seven. He trusted Saruman too much (like many others before and after him!); and after all, he knew that the One had been lost somewhere in Anduin, so a cave in the mountains was an implausible place for it to re-appear. A Dwarven Ring is far, far more likely; and just as dangerous in the hands of one of the Wise, because unlike the Three they're solidly under Sauron's power.

Given Saruman's known jealousy of the bearers of the Three, Gandalf's main concern was almost certainly that Saruman would take possession of the Ring and fall under Sauron's control. What was the best way to avoid that? "Keep it secret - keep it safe." You leave it in the Shire that nobody visits and most people have never heard of, don't tell anyone on the White Council, and quietly get the best warriors in Arnor to keep a close watch on the entire country. Which is exactly what Gandalf did.

hS

[William Cloud Hicklin]

I think Gandalf was in a position where deduction and simple arithmetic told him it could only be the One, but that was almost too much to believe, and then there was Saruman's definitive statement. There seemed no way the One could have made its way from Isildur's finger to a tunnel under the mountains, and if Saruman could be wrong about the One than surely he could be wrong about one of the others instead (in the first instance, the Seven- maybe one wasn't actually melted by a dragon but simply dropped?). He could not reconcile the data available, and certainly didn't want to make a definitive move until he was certain, or at least more certain. That certainty didn't come until he had found and questioned Goillum.