Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[Macalaure]

Many months the learned and the reckless ventured north, far into the uncharted and snowy mountains of the farthest Forodwaith. At last they reached the remains of what was once Utumno, now a devastated landscape of pits and craters filled with ice. In ruin lay all the mighty walls and doors, destroyed in the victory of the Valar many ages ago.
It was difficult to find an entrance in the frozen debris, and they might have been forced to turn around and go back, had they not two rangers leading them who had searched the place before. Eagerly they climbed through the broken stones that half-covered what once was a tunnel covered by many feet of earth.
Had they been less eager, and more wary, maybe they still would have decided to turn again - for as they passed into the darkness, a dark shape passed over the faint stars of the breaking night. At its sight, maybe the learned would have found wisdom again and the reckless would have come to reason, but it did not come thus.

*~*

Utumno was exceeding deep, and once its pits were filled with fire and great hosts of the servants of Melkor. Now, no fire burnt save the torches of the adventurers from the south, and no evil being seemed to linger there anymore. The deeper they climbed, the less the cold became, and soon they were taking off all garments they brought against the eternal winter. They were looking for the deepest hall, where they deemed the secrets of Morgoth to be hidden.
The light of the torches flickered on the walls of the tunnels and stairways and once they left the wrecked paths behind, the fire revealed the ghastly figures carved into the stone - gruesome faces and devices of torture. Some noticed shadows that did not seem to move with the fire, but on their own. Doubting their eyes, they remained silent.

*~*

At last they reached a vast hall from which no further tracks outwent. One last door they saw on the other side, and they were drawn towards it. A single pedestal made of black stone stood there in the middle of a small chamber, and on it lay only one item glimmering as if a dark fire burned from within, and red gems hemmed into its round shape. They had found what they had been looking for. The one thing with which they thought the marring of the world could be undone.

Morgoth's Ring! one exclaimed.

Morgoth's Ring! in others followed in wondering voices.

Morgoth's Ring! all joined.

It's only a metaphor....

Shhhh!

*~*

Now that wehave what we came for, let us seek the way out again. I fear these forsaken places are not as deserted as they seem. Rikae advised and was agreed with.

I do not recall how long we have been journeying these dark and timeless corridors, with all the wrong turns we took and dead ends we encountered, but it will take many... Days and Nights... until the sun will shine on our faces again. Mac explained.

And if some things still linger in this maze, now that we hold their old master's treasure, they might come to hinder us. Who knows what powers still linger here - at the source of darkness. Rikae cautioned their group.

But even the two travelled rangers would not have guessed that the powers they were wary of listened to their very words and already waited to take their turn, once the first Night fell.

*~*

[Macalaure]

There are 2 wolves, 4 cobblers, 1 seer, and 1 cobbler assassin.

Wolves and cobblers work like they always do. The seer sees a cobbler as an ordo. The cobbler assassin chooses one villager to assassinate every night. If a cobbler is chosen, that cobbler is eliminated. If the target is not a cobbler, nothing happens and the assassin will receive no further information. Seer and assassin cannot communicate during the nights.

In case of a tie, the last to receive the final vote gets lynched.

There are no retractable votes

Deadline is 8pm GMT.

Game will start August 18th.


List of Players:

Feanor of the Peredhil - visionary whose visions lean toward the abstract
Shastanis Althreduin - loner roane
Formendacil - snowbird
Kitanna - phantom's business partner
Eönwë - seller of pointless fakes
Nerwen - treasure-seeker
Kath - unemployed bum
Nilpaurion Felagund - aged tale-seeker
Durelin - eccentric, misanthropic archaeologist
Brinniel - junk collector
Gwathagor - warrior librarian
Nogrod - pointless philosopher
Lalaith - absent-minded professor
A Little Green - blind astronomer who sells stars at the stock exchange
the phantom - obtainer of rare antiquities
Thinlómien - marine zoologist
Groin Redbeard - dwarven miner
Mithalwen - factotum

[Macalaure]

Having an uncertain feeling of danger, the expedition hasted through the dark tunnels as swift as they may. A lot farther did they come than Rikae and Mac expected. On their way to the deepest hall before, their often eccentric, absent-minded, and pointless group had wasted much time obtaining rare antiquities and collecting junk. At last the rangers made them halt, for the aged among the loremen started to lag behind.

We must rest for tonight, to save our strength for the coming days. said Mac.

The adventurers quickly prepared something approximating a camp and it did not take them long to fall asleep after they had lied down. But around them, there were things that needed no rest and no sleep. They had slept an unwholesome sleep for ages, and now they desired nothing more than to take revenge upon the thieves that stole their old master's highest treasure.

When all were sound asleep two of these dreadful spirits entered the bodies of two of our heroes, corrupting their minds and, with the remnant of the evil power still abiding in the deeps of Utumno, altered their bodies. Henceforth at night they took the form of werewolves, willing and able to slowly slay those who sought to exit from their realm. The beasts woke, bared their teeth, and withdrew to a corner to plot how to best reach their goal.

*~*

But more happened during this night. Other sprits, of less potency, descended into the minds of four more. They did not have the power to rule over them, or even their bodies, but they confused their hosts and dreams entered their thoughts that they had never dreamt before. They saw each other, though the vision was too blurry and dark to reveal a thing. Then, before their eyes, they saw the Dark Lord himself, awful to behold, and they fell to their knees in awe.

What did you come here for, into my abide? his voice asked, but none dare answer, for suddenly their plans made them felt like traitors.

This is the last realm in Arda that is free of the arrogance and deceit of the Valar. Here, you do not call upon their names. Here you curse them! Tell me now who it is that you worship!

In terror and faint voices they replied: Melkor!

That is right. You are here at the source of darkness, and only darkness is worshipful here, and only darkness has power - and it was power that you came here for, power to undo my work?

Master, forgive us, we erred.

How shall I trust you? Maybe if you speak to me the words that my servants swore to me of old, I shall believe your vows.

And so they spoke:

Death to light, to law, to love!
Cursed be moon and stars above!
May darkness everlasting old
that waits outside in surges cold
drown Manwë, Varda, and the sun!
May all in hatred be begun,
and all in evil ended be,
in the moaning of the endless Sea!

And then they were revealed to the deadly plan. Yet, they did not learn of the identity of the two accursed ones, for Melkor's trust knows strict borders.

*~*

But even more dreams were dreamt that night, and those were of more beauty. One of the adventurers strayed through gardens of green and of colorful flowers and old trees, and peace came to his heart. At the time that he felt most glad and fulfilled, a gentle voice spoke to him.

I apologise to interrupt your joy, but I have called you to walk in my garden for more a more important reason than your enjoyment. You and your group are in the most dire danger! Foolish you were to seek for the secrets of the one I do not name. Now evil has conspired against you to bring you to your bitter end. Inside the evil dungeon even my power is restricted, so among all of you I can only grant one this gift. Henceforth, for as long as you should still live, you may walk in my gardens every night, and you shall wake up wiser than you fell asleep each time. May this wisdom help you and your friends.

Then the voice fell silent and did not answer when our adventurer asked for its name.

*~*

Another one of our heroes was allowed to stray in Lórien's gardens, too. But Lórien had no gift of his own to give to this one when he spoke to him.

Welcome to my gardens, weary wanderer. I have called you to walk in my garden tonight, for there is somebody who seeks to talk to you...

Alright, can I speak now?

Yes, you can. He can hear you now.

Just like this?

Yes Oromë, please, just go ahead.

Well... *ahem*... so... You were foolish to come to that place! The power of Morgoth will never undo the deeds of Morgoth. Only more suffering you will bring into the world, and first onto yourselves. The Valar have decided to come to your help, in the measure that we are capable of. You shall receive a hallowed weapon of mine. It is invisible to anybody but yourself, and it will kill anybody who pretends a fair face, but does not support you inside their hearts. It does not slay the utter evil or good... are you sure he can really hear me?

He heard everything, and hopefully understood it as well.

That is good. Now, to end this, what do I have to pre... *clack*

*~*

Night 1 begins. Wolves: plot. Seer: dream. Others: sleep.

[Rikae]

Rikae and Mac took turns guarding the entrance of the chamber the group was sleeping in. Would they have devoted more of their attention towards the inside of the chamber instead of the outside, maybe this story would have ended right here, but they were oblivious to what happened to some of their fellows inside. The wolves, on the other hand, knew two rangers would be able to thwart all their effort. They needed to go.

Mac was sleeping soundly, and Rikae quietly hummed a tune of old.

A thousand years ago, or maybe even 33
the ancient fraggles wrestled with a strange catastrophe
every time they wandered down a certain tunnel lane
one by one they disappeared like bubbles down a drain
a darkness closed around them and they never came again

A squeeking sound interrupted her song. Something was there....
Rikae nudged Mac awake, and expressed the foreboding that they would never leave this place alive. He casually remarked:

It's not so bad!

Seeing Rikae looking at him strangely, he added:

Well, I'm not saying I'd like to build a summer home here, but the carvings are actually quite lovely.

Suddenly, a dark shape moved into the passageway before them. Instantly, they were on their feet, skewering it repeatedly with their swords until it collapsed on the stone floor. The light from the chamber beyond fell on the creature, revealing it as nothing more than a rat of unusual size.

From the sound it made, I assumed it would be something even bigger - a werewolf, I feared. said Rikae.

Mac replied: A werewolf? That is more than unlikely, even in this place. What should it have done all this time? On what should it have fed? Rats? I doubt th...

No more words came out of Mac's throat, for huge fangs pierced it from behind, took his breath, and killed him. Rikae, at almost the same moment, was grabbed and her mouth shut by a large and hairy paw. The cruelty of what happened then is beyond this storyteller to recount.

*~*

Late did the members of the expedition awake. They expected to be woken by their two brave rangers and they walked around calling for them, but no answer came. Only when they stepped outside the chamber they saw what became of them. The floor was filled with pools of blood. Blood covered the walls as well. Tiny pieces of two human bodies lay all over the place. Then they looked up to the ceiling and thus horror was taught to them. For there, written in the blood of their victims, the werewolves wrote the words.

Calli lelyal ostosse!

All held their breath in dreadful awe. Only Formendacil spoke up:

Heroses going in the city? What is that supposed to mean?

It's supposed to be "Heroes go home! came a voice from behind.

Everybody turned around in an instant.

"Who said that?"

No word was uttered.

This is ridiculous. Formendacil protested. What is "Calli" supposed to mean? Plural of "Callo" is "Callor"! And "lelyal" is in the completely wrong form. We are given an order, so the imperative has to be used: "á lelya"! "Osto" makes the least sense of all! If it's supposed to mean "home" it has to be "mar"! And since we are told to go there, the allative case has to be used, not the locative: "marra"!

So enraged Formendacil was, that he took some of the blood inside the pools and drew the correct phrase upon the wall. Slowly the others backed away from him...

*~*

Dead:
Macalaure and Rikae (mods) - killed by wolves and turned into faulty quenya in Night One

Alive:
Feanor of the Peredhil - visionary whose visions lean toward the abstract
Shastanis Althreduin - loner roane
Formendacil - snowbird
Kitanna - phantom's business partner
Eönwë - seller of pointless fakes
Nerwen - treasure-seeker
Kath - unemployed bum
Nilpaurion Felagund - aged tale-seeker
Durelin - eccentric, misanthropic archaeologist
Brinniel - junk collector
Gwathagor - warrior librarian
Nogrod - pointless philosopher
Lalaith - absent-minded professor
A Little Green - blind astronomer who sells stars at the stock exchange
the phantom - obtainer of rare antiquities
Thinlómien - marine zoologist
Groin Redbeard - dwarven miner
Mithalwen - factotum

Day 1 has begun. Everybody talk!

[Nogrod]

Finally Nogrod the pointless philosopher walked forwards and addressed the others.

"Fear not for philosophy will offer consolation to us all. I mean that one should not be afraid of something that isn't plain real and concrete, right? Now can you prove these miss-spelling monsters do exist? No you can't. Maybe the deaths of our rangers are just results of our imagination and they're not actually dead, or maybe the Valar have taken them to their lands and are just trying our faith? Or maybe these are just pools of a random red liquid that pours from the veins of the aghastly halls in memory of the foul deeds and murder commited here millenia ago? Or maybe there is no real world but only your mind that is tricked by far greater powers – or just by this hollow place which wishes to lead us astray? …

Uhh… just a minute… oh yes, our fear is more like pointing to the possibility of those monsters being real and within the realm of possibilities anything... well at least almost anything is somewhat... erm... possible? As creatures able to think we are also able to leave the "here-and-now" and to both remember the past and to anticipate the future… So a major form of fear may arise from the anticipation of a possibility becoming actual. Thence the object of our fear might not be the existence of those beasts and their threat on us here which could be refuted with showing the impossibility of proving the necessary nature of their being, but the possibility of them becoming actual in the future or at least the existence of that threat in our minds. So the absence of their presence doesn’t yet solve the problem then… Now, this is a dilemma. Just a minute…

But a philosopher once said that death in itself is not frightening for it is only our fear of death that frightens us. The things in world happen and are neither frightful or delighting as such - for they are necessary – it's only the emotions and beliefs we attach to things existing or possibly happening that give them their value and our anticipation that makes us fear or hunger for them. So the fear nor it's object are not in the world but inside you all yourselves. It's up to you to decide whether you should be afraid of your own thoughts or not.... or...

Oh my… I seem to have ended up into the side of repressive ideologies that blame the individuals and leave the oppressive system untouched. The reality of evil and suffering should not be forgotten indeed! It is emancipation and enlightenment that we need and not apologies for the necessity and unavoidability of our unjust situation. Let's fight this out and free ourselves as subjects of our own lives and declare our rights against the evil oppressors and the violent system!

But then again: how to fight against violence and oppression that are not actual or present but are merely enclosed in the fear and evil existing primarily within us ourselves as structures of our own thought laid there by the oppressive class and it's cultural hegemony? The fight needs an object as well, the thing we're fighting against – and an analysis as to where this evil arises from and what are its mechanics so that we could outdo its effects? So we should should fight against ourselves first then, beat our inner demons? Gah, I'm afraid I lost my point…if there ever was any, I mean...

Emancipate yourselves from mental slavery in any case!

Sorry. I got a bit carried away as well. I'll think a bit more if you allow me..."

[the phantom]

My name is Indiana Jo- erm... I mean, Phantom, I'm an obtainer of rare antiquities, and I'm here to help!

*silence*

Oh, who am I kidding? I'm just here for adventure and loot. I hardly know any of you people. But as I'm ill equipped to deal with two Werewolves all on my own, it is currently in my best interest to work with you guys to lynch them.

First, if I read the signs correctly, there are only two of them! Much nicer than three or four.

Second, they have helpers. But they don't know each other, so the Wolves are bound to kill one of them. And without even trying to we'll probably lynch one. And as that bloke in our dreams told us, we have a Cobbler Hunter helping us, and he's likely to peg one eventually. So forget the Cobblers. The Wolves are the concern here.

A couple of things- why did an unemployed bum come on this excursion. Up to no good I'd say.

And a pointless philosopher? What does he get out of this?

Or a blind astronomer? She's obviously not going to see anything of interest down here.

And neither is a marine zoologist. Very fishy.

I would suspect the absent minded professor's reasons for being here, but I expect she came by accident.

And what's a snowbird doing here? I thought they liked warm weather, not the frozen north. And how does he know so much about languages?

Lastly, what's Conan the Librarian doing here? Shouldn't he be extracting late fees by the point of his sword?

[the phantom]

One more thing- is it really smart for all of us to wear invisibility cloaks? It's really annoying trying to talk to people that you can't see. Plus it seems to me the WWs with their keen senses of smell and hearing suffer less than us from this lack of sight.

[Durelin]

Heroes? What heroes?

All we have so far is some braincase trying to convince us that our inner demons killed two people, and a scruffy looking treasure hunter with a head too big for his fedora.

And me. But I don't count. Don't trust me to discern the good from the bad, I'm only used to working with really dead people and their stuff.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by the phantom

One more thing- is it really smart for all of us to wear invisibility cloaks? It's really annoying trying to talk to people that you can't see. Plus it seems to me the WWs with their keen senses of smell and hearing suffer less than us from this lack of sight.

That is one of the conditions of WW, you know.

edit: x-ed with Dury. And I meant conventions.

[the phantom]

The dynamics of this little pickle we're in are quite different than other villages I've heard of. I'm still trying to get my head around all the possibilities.

On one hand the Seer has less to fear. In olden times if you'd spot one WW you'd want to lay low and continue searching for another one, because there were many. This time if the Seer finds one WW then bang- we're halfway home. Heck, he may even come right out after finding one and just sort of assume that the village is competent enough to lynch one measly WW after he's gone.

If I were the Seer I'd be inclined to take that route. However, I can't help but think that I'd do that only because it would take all the pressure off of me and put it on the villagers, and I could kick back the rest of the game and say, "I did my part". Other people with more time and energy on their hands might be inclined to lay low and attempt to collect both WWs.

I'm thinking about it, and I'd say that taking the easy way out is probably not the recommended action to take in this village. However, laying absolutely low after finding one WW is also out of the question in this village. In a village with three WWs or more, it's worth the risk to forget about leaving clues and hints while you search for a second WW. But with only two WWs I don't think the Seer can pass up a WW so easily.

I'm not saying to scream it from the rooftop, but hint strongly enough that, should you die, the WW will be known beyond doubt.

As far as the Cobblers go, forget them. They have three shots at dying every cycle, and I can't imagine they'll dodge the bullet for long. They should be down to a manageable number shortly.

And don't be worried about a Cobbler leading you astray. They don't know any more than you, so they're as likely to be wrong as anyone. There are only a few situations where we need to pay attention to them. For instance, if one is pretending to be gifted. But that will only happen in certain situations and we can discuss it when one pops up.

[the phantom]

and a scruffy looking treasure hunter

Oh, and I suppose I'm a nerf-herder as well?

[the phantom]

That is one of the conditions of WW, you know.

Yeah, I've played once or twice.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Yeah, I've played once or twice.

I sort of knew that, in case you hadn't guessed.
And by the way would you like this authentic button that once belonged to Bilbo?

[the phantom]

trying to convince us that our inner demons killed two people

Ah, so that is what he was trying to say. Lost me completely. But then I was never much for philosophy. I prefer to solve my problems via punching.

Like that one time I went exploring in the Barrow-Downs. There are some magnificent treasures under those hills, but the wights that guard them- very tough customers, and they don't like parting with treasure. But I roughed them up nicely.

Or at least I would've if Tom Bombadil hadn't shown up and rescu- I mean taken care of them before I had the chance. Silly old chap. I had the situation completely under control.

[the phantom]

And by the way would you like this authentic button that once belonged to Bilbo?

So YOU are the one that took them?!

I travelled all through the caves of the Misty Mountains looking for Bilbo's lost buttons! I found the very door he escaped out of and nearly got captured by a pack of goblins, and came away with nothing to show for it! Grrr... I hate it when someone beats me to a treasure.

But yes, I'll take them. Talk to Kitanna. She handles trades and such for me. Has a knack for getting good deals.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by phantom

Oh, and I suppose I'm a nerf-herder as well?

I tried to be a little subtle. A little...

So the cobblers can help lynch a wolf, and the wolves can always kill a cobbler. There's only two wolves and there's a seer.

This should be an interesting show! I only wish there were more risks involved for the cobbler assassin...or any risks at all for that matter!

Anyway, let's try not to lynch our cobbler assassin or seer today.

[Nogrod]

1. There is evil among us.

1.1. There are two wolves.

1.1.2. There are only two wolves against 16 people.

1.1.2.1 It seems they are not knowledgeable of their helpers but only of each other.

1.2. There are four cobblers.

1.2.1. The cobblers - adding with the number of wolves - can create a lot of havoc in any one voting we make.

1.2.1.1. Many times those cobblerish-souls can be kind of ignored until the last Days.

1.2.1.2. This is not one of those times as it seems they know each others identity and are numerous (look also 1.2.1.).

1.2.1.2.1. Unless I read the narration too hastily as it says only that They saw each other, though the vision was too blurry and dark to reveal a thing.

1.2.1.2.2. The beginning of the sentence states it quite clearly that "saw each other" eg. they know each others identity, but the rest of the sentence kind of puts that in some doubt.

1.2.1.2.3. If the interpretation I made is false in the point 1.2.1.2. then the nasty scenario loses some of its potency - which would be good.

1.2.1.3 The antique-dealer is at least partly wrong. Whatever the interpretation, the cobblers are a major problem even if we agreed that the wolves are our main enemies.

1.2.2. The cobblers' possibilities of creating havoc is lessened a little by the fact that they do not know the identities of the wolves and that is good.

1.3. We have six enemies here.

1.3.1. That makes it one third of our total.

1.3.1.1. The sum total of us will be decreasing Day by Day.

1.3.1.2. It will decrease Night by Night to be exact.

1.3.2. It is a new situation indeed.

1.3.2.1. New situations are challenges that might prove either way.

1.3.2.2. Let's hope this will turn out the good way.

1.4. We may be in trouble.

1.4.1. The greatest peril being that the cobblers may twist an important vote with co-operation in a situation they feel safe enough on later Days.

1.4.1.1. If the speculation in 1.2.1.2.1.-3. is right then this danger lessens.

1.4.2. The chances of the cobblers can be denied from them if we are careful and witty enough... and lucky... and the rules favour us.

1.4.2.1. I'd look for nice bandwagons even more closely this time.

1.4.2.2. Especially in the first Days.

1.4.2.2.1. Which throws even more responsibility to the innocents around here for choosing the easy lynch will be exactly the way the cobblers would like to save themselves on the first Days before their time actually comes to perform their ugly duties.

1.4.2.2.2. Differentiating between a lazy / self-preserving innocent and a cobbler will be a task in this situation.

1.4.3. There's no greater light than those of hope and determination.


2. There is much good around.

2.1. There are 12 totally innocent souls against the malice.

2.1.1. Of those twelve two have special powers to help us.

2.1.1.1. Sadly they don't know of each other.

2.1.2. The four lesser evils will be counted as innocents in any tallies if it gets to that point.

2.1.2.1. The mathematical ratio of evil vs. the good is 2 to 16.

2.1.2.1.1. The effect of those four innocent but cobbler persons may twist the voting though (look especially 1.2.1.2.).

2.2. We innocents need not lie or fabricate things.

2.2.1. Forced cases should bring forwards alarm-bells as they are ones the wolves and cobblers need to do.

2.2.2. But how to differentiate those from tests and trials we innocents need to do if the villains want to stay quiet and uncontroversial?

2.2.2.1. A load of people just nodding to each other is the best scenario for the baddies to hide within.

2.2.2.2. And we have six of them trying to hide!

2.2.2.3. Or to be agreeable.

2.3. Let's stay true and sharp.


End of part I.


EDIT: X'd with everything after tp's second post...

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Like that one time I went exploring in the Barrow-Downs. There are some magnificent treasures under those hills, but the wights that guard them- very tough customers, and they don't like parting with treasure.

Ah, so you show an interest in the Barrow-Downs, eh? Well I'll throw in Sam's belt buckle, the one he lost there. Half price and that's a good offer.

Anyway, where were we? Oh yes, about finding the werewolves.

edit: x-ed since tp's #14

[Eönwë]

Well if we're going Ic, then tp is least likely to be a WW. He is too ego-centric and self-obsessed to allow any spirit to enter him.

Philnogsopher, on the other hand is hiding behind the mask of logic. What is he hiding underneath? May there be fangs there? Or he could be double bluffing. Or just simply not bluffing at all. Only time will tell...

And Dury, well, it's a first day, but she already seems to be slippping under my radar. And she's done a just under a sixth of all game posts. I can't remember any. But then, its's just very early day one.


Closing note: It's day one, and there's nothing better to do with all this useless (until later) time...

edit: Didnn't x with anyone. Am I the only one here or are you all hiding under your invisibilty cloaks?

[Nogrod]

1.2.1.3.1. the phantom is right that the cobblers face three times the throwing of a lot per Day/Night cycle and that clearly increases the probability of them being killed at one or another point.

1.2.1.3.1.1. the wolves face the challenge only once per Day/Night cycle and the innocents face it twice.

1.2.1.3.2. But if the cobblers make it the first one or two Days they will become a threat indeed.

1.2.1.3.2.1. A lot more threathening one they normally do being alone in the field.

1.2.1.3.3. I don't like the way tp is downplaying their dangerousness - even if they aren't our principal worry.

1.2.1.3.3.1. As tp correctly states: getting one wolf is half the victory.

1.2.1.3.4. We'll be a lot smarter on Day 2 or 3 - those of us around then that is.

1.2.1.4. Let's keep our eyes open for the cobblers as well.

[Nogrod]

1.2.1.4.1. I'm looking at the phantom right now...

[the phantom]

Overall, good stuff Nogrod. The pointless philosopher isn't entirely pointless, I see. But I must question this-

1.2.1. The cobblers - adding with the number of wolves - can create a lot of havoc in any one voting we make.

Nah. I don't think so. There are only two WWs. That's hardly voting power.

And the Cobblers don't know anything. They can't vote with each other or with the WWs except by guessing.

I also disagree slightly about the self-preservation band-wagons. As far as I know, every last person in this village is quite interested in self-preservation. It is true that the goal of a Cobbler is to stay alive long enough to cause havoc, but look at who else would like to stay alive...

1) The WWs, obviously.

2) The Seer, our greatest ally.

3) The Cobbler Hunter, our guard against their back-stabbing.

4) Innocents. The goal of an innocent is to die during the Night rather than the Day. For if they die at Night, they have successfully granted the gifteds another night of activity.

I'm going to vote for who I think is a Werewolf, but guess what- if my neck is on the line I absolutely will band-wagon to save my neck, and I think every last man and woman in this village would do the same. The entire goal of a lynch is to kill a WW. Therefore if you are in the lynch line and know that you are not a WW, you are defeating the entire purpose of the lynch if you don't do everything in your power to avoid death.

At least that is my interpretation of the proper way to behave.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nog

I don't like the way tp is downplaying their dangerousness - even if they aren't our principal worry.

Yes, I am kind of downplaying them. If they somehow survive the slaughter early on they could certainly do some devilish things.

But, here's the thing- there's nothing we can do about that! I think we can all agree that we can't waste lynches on suspected Cobblers. So why worry? They need to be left to the Cobbler Hunter. But what if the Cobbler Hunter bites it? Think about that before you go spouting off "So and so is probably a Cobbler because of x, y, and z", for then the WWs will know precisely who to keep alive.

Anyway, it just seems to me that thinking about Cobblers complicates things. Odds say their numbers will decrease quickly. And even if several of them stay alive, they're worthless without WWs to help. We only need to lynch correctly twice! I would recommend focusing on that point.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

There are only two WWs. That's hardly voting power.

And the Cobblers don't know anything. They can't vote with each other or with the WWs except by guessing.

Okay. Here's what we "know".

Originally Posted by the Narration

they did not learn of the identity of the two accursed ones, for Melkor's trust knows strict borders.

Originally Posted by the Narration

They saw each other, though the vision was too blurry and dark to reveal a thing.

So if the first sentence in the latter quote is what counts then the cobblers know each other's identities and they can form a block of four votes. With some good guessing - not entirely far-fetched - they might form a block of six which will be enough to hang anyone in here. I don't mean they're going to do it toDay - or maybe they will just try to fool us doing exactly that which we would not believe? But later in the game the threat is considerable. Six votes (or five, or four...) is a mighty weapon used in the middle of uncertainty that is the existential condition of us others.

The problem seems to be how to interpretate the ending of that quote about the vision being too blurry to reveal anything while the sentence before says "they saw each other" plain and simple.

Just to be sure I wouldn't ignore the worst case scenario as otherwise this might be technically / probabilitywise too easy for us to win. So I'm afraid we're against cobblers who know each other and that makes them dangerous with their four votes and the aching to vote with the wolves which they could get right at one point or another.


Edit: I just saw the phantom's latest. Yes you're correct and I do agree with you: the wolves are our top-priority. *News!*

But if all the cobblers (or three of them) are alive on Day3 and they know each other we're in the killing-zone as they are then quite free to roam... So they are a real threat and not something to be ignored.

[the phantom]

By the way, Nog, I'm not proposing ignoring Cobblers completely. As I stated earlier, there are certain situations where we will need to discuss possible Cobbler ploys, but right now is not one of those times. Right now they don't exist as far as I'm concerned.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Anyway, let's try not to lynch our cobbler assassin or seer today.

Heh- or as a demonstration of our complete ignorance, we could all vote for who we think is the Seer and stand just as good a chance of not lynching the Seer as always.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Yes, I am kind of downplaying them.

Well, at least he's being honest about it and not hiding under lists (especially those with fake latin names *hint, hint*).

And I agree with you on some point, tp. We only have two wolves, so if we aim for them, we're much more likely to win. And what are cobblers? Just misguidedd innocents. I say "Aim for a wolf and if you miss, you'll probably hit a cobbler."

edit: x-ed since Nog's last non-list post. Sorry Nog.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Eonwe

I say "Aim for a wolf and if you miss, you'll probably hit a cobbler."

Indeed.

And I see that we really need to settle this quote, Nog.

They saw each other, though the vision was too blurry and dark to reveal a thing.

All right- let's talk this through.

I go down to the docks to watch for someone on a boat. It's very foggy.

I see a boat arrive. I see someone on the boat.

Question- does that mean I can identify the person? Pick their face out of a line-up?

Nope.

Seeing someone does not equate with recognizing someone.

The narrative says that not a thing was revealed. I would assume that identities would be included in that. They merely saw each other in the sense that they saw that there were other Cobblers present.

[Gwathagor]

Good morning, everyone. All five of us...

First days are usually utter rubbish, in my opinion, so I'm liking the tone of constructive discussion that tp, nog, and eonwe have set thus far.

I have to go to the bank (it closes really soon), but I'll be back on later.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Anyway, it just seems to me that thinking about Cobblers complicates things.

Sadly one can't just only "think of the wolves" either as they don't give themselves up to be thought everytime and then the other choice is to be just embarrased...

It is what people say and do that give you the cards you can and need to play with. Sometimes some people look really wolvish and you're more than happy to go after them but sometimes you're totally perplexed and lost as the wolves play so neatly that you have no clue about them.

So:
wolves = target #1
cobblers = target #2

Let's not forget our secondary targets as with the passing of Days they might become our target #1's.

I guess we're talking about the same thing tp but just from a different angle.

ToDay we need to go for a wolf. Or if we have a clear hunch for a cobbler and no idea about the wolves, then for a cobbler.

But just trying to ignore the cobblers (no, no, you're not saying it tp, this is just an argument) and taking great chances with a lynching of an unprobable wolf we're not at all at ease with, is folly as well. Let's just remember the cobblers would love to join any wagons suiting their hunches, the more so if they knew each other and could play it tactically... Knowledge is power here.

Originally Posted by the phantom

The narrative says that not a thing was revealed. I would assume that identities would be included in that. They merely saw each other in the sense that they saw that there were other Cobblers present.

I kind of hope for you to be right in here but fear you're wrong. I mean why only two wolves then with a village of 18? Do Rikae and Mac believe in the ability of the blind individual cobblers to lead us others astray so much that they leave the bad side at that disadvantage - with the cobbler-assassin and all? I'd say the presence of a cobbler-assassin speaks for cobblers to know each other and to form a major threat.

Hopefully the mods will enlighten us on this matter... or maybe it's their cruel plan to leave us guessing about it?

Anyway it's 2 AM here and I'm going to sleep. I will be back but tomorrow (RL) my evening is pretty full... I'll post and vote though and hopefully be able to hang around the deadline as well eventually.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

And what's a snowbird doing here? I thought they liked warm weather, not the frozen north. And how does he know so much about languages?

My dear the phantom, it's summer. This is the time snowbirds spend up north.

Though, granted, there aren't mosquitoes in Ariz... I mean, in Umbar.

And it's rather chilly.

Curse those dead Rangers for talking me into this! How am I supposed to get back to Annúminas in time for my motorcad... I mean, my waggon train, back to Ariz... I mean, Umbar? Dying on us like that, really! It's most inconvenient.

As for how I know so many languages? Are you insinuating, Mr. the Phantom, that we men of the land can't handle tough academics? The Valar know we have time for it, sitting there on our tracto... I mean, walking behind the plow.

Besides, I'm Dúnedain. Elvish languages are the only one I can read!

As for why I'm along... I'm a retiree. Sight-seeing tours are what we do!

Now, if you'll excuse me, my senior citizen's bladder ain't what it used to be...

[Lalaith]

Lalaith absently ambled into the group, rubbed her hair distractedly and peered down through her possibly non-canonical pince-nez.

"hmm...this is a pretty pickle. We have, let us see now...yes, two killers amongst us and four primed to aid them through bafflement and confusion.
Now, on this point, Nogrod my dear chap, I would like an explanation of 2.1.2.1, for while I am a professor of ancient lore and not mathematics, would you not say the ratio is 1:3 rather than 2:16? And while we are on the subject of bafflement and confusion masquerading as clarity and helpfulness, the Tractatus format is not easily beaten, eh?
Well, no matter.

First days are usually utter rubbish, in my opinion

On this I am inclined to agree, at least while one is enduring them. But afterwards, they can be very useful, at an empirical level, when developing a hypothesis. But of course, we are seeking four cobblers as well as two wolves and on Day One it is remarkably easy for anyone to look like a cobbler.

why worry? They need to be left to the Cobbler Hunter

Now then, Indy-phantom, this seems somewhat glib reasoning. There are four of the wretches and for the Cobbler Hunter to catch them all is highly improbable.
I seem to remember a similar case, now, in the lore-books...let me think, Roa I think the afreet was named, she wreaked havoc around the group until she was caught and stopped. Four such determined mavericks at work, at once, would make our task near-impossible.
So, where was I? Ah yes. To sum up, those of us who are left tomorrow, and in the days that follow, need to sift through the records and attempt to distinguish between wilfully rather than just accidentally unhelpful behaviour, as well as the usual signs of wolvery."
At this, Lalaith wandered off, reading a dusty tome and muttering in truly stereotypical style.

[Groin Redbeard]

Then it was that Groin, who had long been silent, spoke.

"Eonwe speaks wisely, as well as Gwathagor. We will not solve anything today but the best method to seek out the wolves. Though I fear only time will tell which two of us are the wolves. A slip of the tongue is all we need and many of us might be dead before then. Beware of those who would be loud and confuse you with too many thoughts!"

[the phantom]

Wow. I expected to come home and find a couple of pages worth of yapping. But not so.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I kind of hope for you to be right in here but fear you're wrong.

So you still think the Cobblers might know each other? We'll just have to disagree on that then.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I mean why only two wolves then with a village of 18?

Yes, and no cursed villager either. That does seem unbalanced.

But of course there is no Ranger either, and the WW Hunter has been changed to a Cobbler Hunter.

Do Rikae and Mac believe in the ability of the blind individual cobblers to lead us others astray so much that they leave the bad side at that disadvantage

I think the Cobblers' ability to mislead us is worthless, because obviously at no point can they ever have concrete information about anyone's identity, and thus they cannot knowingly mislead us.

Here's what a Cobbler can do-
Best case scenario- self vote to clinch the win at the end.
Next best- draw out a gifted. (but this is very difficult under the current set up)
Option three- get themselves lynched.

Option three is the most attainable. No doubt the Cobblers would like to be able to survive and clinch the win at the end, but I cannot imagine that every Cobbler will lay low in survival mode. If I was a Cobbler I would start trying to make myself lynch target no later than day three if I was still alive. The simple fact is, a Cobbler dying at night is a complete disaster for the evil side, for they've either been slain by the Hunter or by their own team, the WWs.

It is my guess that this is what Mac and Rikae had in mind when they chopped the WWs down to two. They were banking on Cobblers wasting a couple of lynches. If they're extremely lucky, three lynches.

The Cobbler Hunter has quite a decision to make. Go for people laying low, banking on catching a Cobbler who wants to make a move towards the end, or go for people who look likely to be lynched, because perhaps that is exactly what they want.

What the Cobblers actually do depends completely on what sort of person they are. Do they calculate odds and play percentages, or do they play by feel, or are they content only with brave and bold moves for the ages?

We'll see.

[Nerwen]

Suddenly Nerwen, her pale face eerily lit by the blazing torch she carried, appeared in the gloom of the chamber's entrance.

"Oh, hello," she said, stepping carefully over the tragically mutilated remains, "I've just been having a look around, to see what I can find. No offence, phantom, but you and I are business rivals... and I don't think I want to purchase my treasures from a self-described seller of pointless fakes.

Now, this place echoes a lot, and I picked up quite a bit of this cobbler-related conversation as I made my way through the tunnels.

My opinion is that the much-talked about sentence

They saw each other, though the vision was too blurry and dark to reveal a thing.

means that the cobblers know of each other's existence, but not identity.

I will share further reflections with you once I've cleaned up a bit... I mean, it doesn't seem right just to leave what's left of our Rangers all over the place..."

And Nerwen started gathering up the pieces.

EDIT: X'd with phantom.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Groin Redbeard

"Eonwe speaks wisely, as well as Gwathagor. We will not solve anything today but the best method to seek out the wolves. Though I fear only time will tell which two of us are the wolves. A slip of the tongue is all we need and many of us might be dead before then. Beware of those who would be loud and confuse you with too many thoughts!"

I hope that you lot are among the first of many to see such good sense. As the old almanacs will show, I've a mighty strong dislike for those who go around preaching that they will catch wolves, using their mighty skills on Day 1.

Originally Posted by the phantom

If I was a Cobbler I would start trying to make myself lynch target no later than day three if I was still alive. The simple fact is, a Cobbler dying at night is a complete disaster for the evil side, for they've either been slain by the Hunter or by their own team, the WWs.

I hope everyone's paying heed to this... on about Day 3 (if the Phantom hasn't died by then), pay close heed to his actions... and if they stay the same, kill him as a Cobbler.

Yes, yes the Phantom sir, we know full well that you are:

Originally Posted by the phantom

calculate odds and play percentages, or do they play by feel, or are they content only with brave and bold moves for the ages

All of the above.

You'll calculate the odds, play it by feel, and make bold moves.

We'll probably have to lynch you by the end of ToMorrow, but you'll probably talk us out of it and we'll live to regret it.

Or you're the seer, in which case you'll be dead ToNight and we'll all be doomed.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Here's what a Cobbler can do-
Best case scenario- self vote to clinch the win at the end.
Next best- draw out a gifted. (but this is very difficult under the current set up)
Option three- get themselves lynched.

Option three is the most attainable. No doubt the Cobblers would like to be able to survive and clinch the win at the end, but I cannot imagine that every Cobbler will lay low in survival mode. If I was a Cobbler I would start trying to make myself lynch target no later than day three if I was still alive. The simple fact is, a Cobbler dying at night is a complete disaster for the evil side, for they've either been slain by the Hunter or by their own team, the WWs.

Nerwen looked up from scrubbing the blood off the floor. "Um... yes... agreed... but aren't you afraid that any cobblers who may be within earshot will find this rather instructive?"

EDIT: x'd with Formendacil.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Form

but you'll probably talk us out of it and we'll live to regret it

I doubt it. If you live, that would mean that you win, right?

So living to regret it seems to be impossible.

Originally Posted by Form

Or you're the seer, in which case you'll be dead ToNight and we'll all be doomed.

Well, we'd better just call the game right now then, of course. We lose.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

but aren't you afraid that any cobblers who may be within earshot will find this rather instructive?

Absolutely.

[the phantom]

Okay, Nerwen, I suppose you deserve a more serious answer than that.

First- the Cobblers, if they take their roles seriously, have already thought of the Cobbler role much more than everyone else, and so it is likely that everything I pointed out is already known to them.

I am fully aware that perhaps one of the Cobblers might find my posts to be instructive, but I think it is worth it to make all of these thoughts known to the entire village, as perhaps it will help multiple villagers organize their thoughts.

And then there's this- listening to me could very well help them play better, but if they play according to my advice then we shall know exactly what to look for, correct? Ideas alone won't give the game to the Cobblers. They have to be able to pull off the moves better than we can spot them. I am trying to set up the way this village should be played, and then hope that I am able to play it better.

[Gwathagor]

I disagree with the phantom. There is a fourth option for cobblers: to confuse and mislead in any direction they can. As long as they are muddying the waters and inhibiting clarity of thought among the group, they are helping the wolves, since we're not likely to lynch wolves by accident, given the odds.

If I was a cobbler who was unaware of the identity of my fellows, this is what I would do.

[Gwathagor]

To clarify, I don't think the cobblers know who each other are.