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12-28-2007, 06:33 PM | #281 | |
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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Actually, troubling though you are to me Mac, I pretty much agree with your list. Except that I would not be too quick to dismiss Legate’s vote as ordo-ish. He was the first to raise suspicion of Valier, based on her lack of reasoning for her accusations (an easy argument for a Wolf to make) and the first to get the ball rolling against her.
Of all the votes cast, the Might’s vote is the most redolent of a ‘throw-away’ vote. I can’t recall many, if any, expressing much strong suspicion of Eomer yesterDay. Aganzir’s vote less so, since Mac had attracted a fair amount of comment and she had made clear her distrust of him. However, as I said, my own feeling was that few would vote for him, so it does have a ‘throw-away’ air about it. One thing I am fairly sure of, though. It is a very unlikely Wolf-on-Wolf vote. Quote:
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12-28-2007, 07:30 PM | #282 | ||
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,911
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Alright, Aganzir and Rikae wanted to see my reasons to be suspicious of Aganzir again. Let's get over with it already:
Aganzir - she suspects each of the people that suspected Nogrod, throwing wolf-on-wolves everywhere - a very smart way make people back away from Noggie without appearing like defending him (126, 131) - then she decides to give a crucial vote to Nogrod - her top suspect's (me) top suspect. Usually, an innocent wouldn't like to do that, but the wolf-on-wolf comes in handy. About the Shasta-thing, I bought her explanation, so I'm not going to repeat that part. - recall the voting for Nogrod. Me and Saucepan gave him early votes, Shasta and Legate later retractions. Aganzir's vote was the only one which came during the "general" voting. If there was a wolvish vote for Nogrod, and I'm sure there was, then it was Aganzir's. That was all I had yesterday. Yes, it's not much, I know. However, we're talking about Aganzir here. As she confidently pointed out herself, she hasn't ever gotten a vote before - but she has been a wolf twice already! - Quote:
All I remember is the possibility of Nog and me being wolves and a few far-fetched interpretations. - her reaction to Isabell is very interesting. She seemed to be rather cool, though determined, about my case. But then she tries to drive away Izzy from suspecting her quite aggressively. It seems to me like she thought she got away from being suspected by more than one person, and was annoyed that there actually turned out to be more. I would also like to remind everybody that Aganzir was Valier's first hunch of the last day. Quote:
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12-28-2007, 08:24 PM | #283 |
Guard of the Citadel
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Oxon
Posts: 2,205
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SPM, you must of course also acknowledge that my vote for Eomer came at a very early point as I was unsure that I would be able to go online till the deadline, which as seen I was not.
And I was actually hoping that others might agree, but as seen none did. So please don't try to twist things as you want them to sound like. I do feel a bit better about him after reading the last post. It's good that he gave us his thoughts for a change. I guess we won't find out who was the wolves' target...that would be interesting. To SPM, I thought that way because Kath defended Shasta after Nerwen's attack. So it kind of figured that if Shasta, who I did suspect at that time was a wolf, so would be Kath.
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12-28-2007, 08:38 PM | #284 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: In hospitals, call rooms and (rarely) my apartment.
Posts: 1,538
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You know, the more I think of it, the more the argument between Mac and SPM worries me. At this point I'm feeling like one of them is a wolf trying to get the other one in trouble.
Question is, whom? SPM has been calm and collected throughout the game, he's not slipped once. Mac has a swagger about him that I don't like, I'd lean to think he's the wolf on this pair if it wasn't for the whole mess about Nogrod However, I took the liberty of looking through Mac's posts on the first day, and he accused Nogwolf pretty much from the get-go. I am starting to think it was a wolfish ploy gone bad. Or is it gone good? it'll be all but impossible to get Mac lynched. Yes, I am back-tracking over what I said yesterday, but I begin to think that we'd be better off without Mac. He's going to be a point of contention until the last day, he has been somewhat helpful but I just don't like the way he's acting (and reacting to others). The Nogrod situation gives me pause, but the more I see him argue with SPM and attack him on weak grounds, the more Mac incriminates himself in my eyes.
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12-28-2007, 11:54 PM | #285 | ||
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,647
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On that note Boro, I don't feel you've given any real substantive answer as to why you suspect me.
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12-29-2007, 12:54 AM | #286 | ||||||
Laconic Loreman
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For the moment, SpM looks reasonable and fine. I particulary like his points about Kath yesterday and so far today I've seen a Sauce that I like to see. A thoughtful, considering all possibilities, person...someone good to have to counter the stubborn, "judge by feeling," type of person that I am. As far as Mac, I figure he spotted a wolf on Day 1, might as well trust him, until he is horribly wrong. I mean if he is a wolf, he'll reach a point where he can't keep lynching his buddies and innocents will start dying off. The game I referenced before when Nogrod casted two crucial votes to get his pals lynched. Well, what finished him off was simply, I was dead after the 2nd wolf died...leaving Noggie as the lone wolf. But the intellegent villagers figured out..."wait a second, a couple days have gone by, why is Nogrod still alive? Why hasn't the last wolf killed the most assumed looking innocent yet?" Catching onto Nogrod isn't going to give Mac a free pass to the end...trust me on that, but I don't see why we should buy into this quacked out theory when there's other "theories" which are far more possible. I mean from the looks of it you're better off if you just keep lynching innocents, but as soon as you catch a wolf the automatic reaction is..."Oh he's gotta be a wolf." When really it was someone noticed something was off. Quote:
As far as morm, on Day 1 I thought he was playing a bit conservatively...not what I typically expect from morm. He didn't seem to be too committal to anyone. He accused Rikae of acting wolfishly by tossing around accusations, but in the meantime poked accusations at Nerwen, Farael, Rikae, and me. Then on Day 2, I followed up with what Rikae pointed out, that he came out pushing the Mac-Nogrod stuff; something I'm not buying into. Then in post 204, as Mac observes, he acts as if he is backing off of suspecting me saying he felt I was being "genuine." When not 15 minutes ago in the post before he was prodding suspicion at me: Quote:
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Then finally, he makes a strong argued case against someone (post 245), but who was it against? Nerwen. Nerwen has caused confusion and has been a top candidate right since this village took off, so sorry to say this, but that's something that wouldn't be hard to do.
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12-29-2007, 01:23 AM | #287 | ||||
Laconic Loreman
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12-29-2007, 03:08 AM | #288 |
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,647
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Honestly Boro, I don't get it. So you suspect me because I've suspected you and pointed out your ability at being a very bold wolf?
You suspect me on Day 1 because I was, in your opinion, non-commital and not going for the kill as much. I have spoken at this sufficiently I think as it was an unusual Day 1 to begin with. So on day 2 when I point out the possible Nogrod/Mac connection you accuse me for bringing that up, which I did, though I don't see the problem with it. I presume you suspect me for the exact opposite reason you did on Day 1 which doesn't make much sense. I stated something that seemed, at the time, needful to point out. I still don't feel too assured of Mac, but regardless I fail to see why the things you've said about me are sufficient for you to focus solely on one person. And no, that wasn't a threat so to speak more of me trying to speak some wisdom and remind you that there are other members of our village . I'm fairly tired but hope to get some analysis of others done today, though as it stands Nerwen is still my prime suspect and how she finished the day yesterday didn't help decrease that.
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12-29-2007, 03:35 AM | #289 |
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,647
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Kath
So I had a post by post analysis of Kath prepare and somehow the whole thing was erased. (I'm on my laptop and sometimes when I hit backspace it makes the webpage go back so I lost the whole post) Anyway instead of repeating it I will sumarize. Kath basically hasn't said much. Only 6 posts, which is one of the reasons I'm looking at her. First because I'm concerned about her and The Might only posting 6 times as it's easy to fly under the radar.
She mainly has spent her time in giving some weak and some fairly solid points against Nerwen and defending herself from the early attack from Boromir. It is in post 222 that I feel she is most innocent and makes me feel better about her. She seems very sincere and genuine here and not desparate. I really do believe that she is simply out of time and is frustrated by her lack of participation though I would like to hear from her today and see a vote as we didn't get one yesterday, and one more no vote would mean death to her. Anyway, I hope to look at The Might next.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
12-29-2007, 04:14 AM | #290 | ||||
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,647
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The Might
Post 86 is an odd post indeed. I'm not really sure why he is saying what he is saying here. He starts by going after Shasta a bit for going after Nerwen and defending some IC talk. Then he says something about TP having players post certain things??? I don't get this bit at all. He talks about the twists and is glad day 1 is longer.
Post 116 talks briefly about Nerwen and Shasta. He thinks Nerwen is innocent enough and Shasta guilty. He concludes that if Shasta is guilty so is Kath which makes Legate innocent Feels that it is too early to begin making too many connections between players but already made the Shasta-Kath-Legate connection. Post 117 is a quick follow-up to a question Eomer made about what Nerwen said and thinks she is giving sound advice and doesn't appear wolfish. He seems to be doing a lot of Nerwen defending already. He ends the post with this: Quote:
Also, it is important to note that there is not vote on day 1. Post 198 he talks in circles and I don't really follow what he said here. He does apologize for a no vote and says he was confused on the time, which being how unusual day 1's time was is moderately understandable. Post 230 again he defends Nerwen and begins to be suspicious of Eomer, which came out of nowhere. Mainly he suspects him because of his Day 1 vote for Nerwen and votes for Eomer. This is really odd. In almost every post so far he has mentioned Nerwen in a positive light. Why is he so intent upon saying she appears innocent in every post? Post 283 Quote:
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Conclusion: I really don't trust The Might. I've seen nothing of any substance, a missed vote, constant defense of somebody I highly suspect, an odd out of the blue vote for Eomer who I think innocent, a contrived sounding statement about who was protected, and just a low post volume. This all adds up to put The Might high on the suspect list.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
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12-29-2007, 04:31 AM | #291 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Amongst trees.
Posts: 919
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Back to more current things.. I saw somewhere on the thread, but couldn't find the actual post; but someone made the comment of Boro being a controversial player. I definately think I see a bit of that here in this game.. can't exactly compare to other games.. but definately something to watch out for. mm kay, I'll continue reading now.
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12-29-2007, 05:00 AM | #292 |
Everlasting Whiteness
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I will be back for the deadline. I WILL. But just in case I'm not.
++NERWEN Because I don't dare not vote and I am at least suspicious of her. I WILL be back! |
12-29-2007, 05:03 AM | #293 |
Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,859
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So, does no-one else think we may have an extra wolf on our hands now? That would be grim. Or am I missing something about the narrative?
The events of yesterday were overall rather confusing. I note that the Hunter only kills if her chosen villain was indeed a wolf (from the game rules). Valier obviously killed ordo Azaelia, but this was clearly to tie different threads of the game together. Azaelia, due to lack of involvement, had to perish. But if we consider it very likely that Valier did not choose to kill Azaelia, can we then suppose that Valier's top suspect is therefore not a wolf? Also, a little bird has given me this idea, and I thought I'd throw it out there. The Mod has said something (slightly ambiguous) about dealing a blow to the side of those villagers who do not meet the requirements of the game -- in this case Azaelia. Being ordinary, is it possible that the Mod has punished Azaelia's side (the innocent villagers) and refused to condemn the Hunter's chosen werewolf?
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12-29-2007, 05:33 AM | #294 | ||
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,647
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I hadn't actually thought of that. However, if that were the case I think Farael may have been it due to his first statement today. It leads us all to believe that it was the ranger and not the cursed. I had thought for sure it was the ranger based upon what was written but upon closer examination I'm not so sure... Quote:
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
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12-29-2007, 05:46 AM | #295 | ||||
Wisest of the Noldor
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I don’t have much time right now, but I will do what I can. Some notes on people:
Mac– I felt, on the first Day, that there was something false about Nogrod and Mac’s interactions. Mac’s attempts to cast suspicion on other people also seem rather forced. Against that– well he did deliver a wolf. I think people are dismissing that much too lightly. I mean, a wolf might want to lynch another wolf to appear innocent– but then, you know, an innocent might want to lynch a wolf too. If I had to choose between voting Mac and SpM, I’d perhaps choose Mac– but I'd rather not have to. Eomer: Did anyone else notice his remark at the close of yesterDay, that he didn't care whether Valier or I got lynched? Is that because he suspected us both, as he said, or because from his point of view it really didn't matter– i.e. he's a wolf and doesn't care which innocent gets it? This is just a thought, mind you. His explanation of his reasons for trying to save Nogrod seemed pretty genuine to me. Kath: I made my case against her yesterDay. I've got nothing to add to it, except the way she started to back off her suspicions of me, but has now voted me– is this because SpM said something about the way she seemed to be carefully giving herself room to back down? Now for my current main suspect. Let’s look at some highlights of Mormegil’s career– He casts random suspicions around: Quote:
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He attacks other people for being defensive: Quote:
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In conclusion– I don't know if Morm's a wolf or just a serious hypocrite. I think he's a wolf. EDIT: X'd with Mormegil and Eomer. Last edited by Nerwen; 12-29-2007 at 05:49 AM. |
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12-29-2007, 05:55 AM | #296 | |
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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All right, people, I'm back and I hope to give some time to sorting my thoughts out during the rest of toDay.
First, a response: Quote:
But, let's move now on to other things. I was somewhat doubtful about Mac's theory about Aganzir, nevertheless, his arguments as summed up in one of his last posts sound quite convincing. I, for one, am the last person to base my suspicions on what someone else says. However, after re-reading Agan's posts, I am getting the bad feeling that maybe this clever Agan-wolf came among us once again. But I thought also about her voting: on Day 1 she voted Nog, as we all know. On Day 2, she voted for Mac - and that was absolutely throwaway vote at that time. I thought that maybe, had she been a wolf, after the 1st-Day fall of her packmate, she decided to back up a little and hide out of sight, while (eventually) building up a case against Mac for further use. I could also add that this move will also serve well if Mac is a wolf - a safe vote for a fellow wolf (as opposite to unsafe-going vote on Day 1). Of course I don't want to overcombinate things, yet this is also a possibility (though I am inclined to belive Mac innocent right now). Concerning the other players. I must say it is quite hard for me to make my mind about the "high-class" vocal players, as there's too many of them: including dead Nogrod, with SpM and Boro and Mac and morm and Farael this makes almost half of the village. It would be quite improbable that a wolf wouldn't be among them (although if he weren't, the worse for us). But I must say these are very dangerous waters for me, as the discussions are tangled and it is hard to spot anything. Who intrigues me the most currently is SpM. YesterDay, he supported the suspicions on Valier short after it was voiced, which could be this "voice of Saruman"-tactics without actually voting himself, and when the bandwaggon was rolling, he conviniently jumped in. On the other hand, his vote for Nog on Day 1 was the second one, which on the other hand would speak for his innocence. SpM is clearly not a stupid player and he could have retracted still. What I want to say, mainly: whatever the case, we should not forget SpM (I originally mistyped and wrote RPG ), because if Nog's death was orchestrated, this could serve him well. I am probably going to do a larger analysis of some of these people, if I have the chance, yet this could also mean spending several hours by this (given the length of their posts). Whatever, I will start with SpM and will see. One word about Nerwen. She looked innocent to me at the beginning, but given her votes and discussions with people, like with Valier and Kath yesterDay she starts to seem more and more suspicious. Yet I would like to say - don't be too hasty, hum hom, because it is also possible that an innocent under pressure (as Nerwen surely is) may start to behave suspiciously. So, I would advise being careful. Also let me say Rikae's vote yesterDay made me a little wary of her. I don't have any strong suspicion about her, yet she convinently joined the Valier bandwagon at the crucial point and the way she voted, during her quick appearance, moved her to the orange zone for me. Okay, so I guess that's the main things I had in mind now, will be back later hopefully with some conclusions.
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12-29-2007, 06:11 AM | #297 | ||
Wisest of the Noldor
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However, I believe Azaelia gave notice in the WW42 admin thread that she was dropping out, so I don't know if what she did counts as failing to vote (which I suppose is what The Phantom meant). EDIT: X'd with Legate. |
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12-29-2007, 06:21 AM | #298 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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12-29-2007, 06:32 AM | #299 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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I have to go now, so here's my vote:
++Mormegil For reasons I've already stated. Given the way Morm reacts to people who even disagree with him, I'm sure he'll do his best to get me lynched in retaliation, but I don't really care. After a careful read through all his posts, I think there’s a very high likelihood that he’s a wolf. Nobody else looks half as furry to me. |
12-29-2007, 06:33 AM | #300 |
Laconic Loreman
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I stand corrected about morm...I am way off track with him; he is not a wolf. Sorry bout that, I got carried away, and thought I was onto something when I wasn't.
I think it's time for me to take a serious look at Aganzir, Nerwen, and The Might.
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12-29-2007, 06:42 AM | #301 | ||
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,647
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I believe I suspected you well before you suspected me and yet you claim that I suspect those who suspect me...it would appear that you have it the wrong way and you suspect those that suspect you. Your reasons are incredibly weak and you obviously are grasping at straws here Nerwen. Quote:
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
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12-29-2007, 06:43 AM | #302 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Boromir, Morm is my top suspect and I just voted him. If you have a compelling reason why he isn't a wolf, I'm ready to listen (I have qualms about lynching innocents)– but please explain.
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12-29-2007, 06:53 AM | #303 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Then you immediately added me to your suspect-list– to punish me. (You gave no other reason, Morm.) So yes, technically you did claim to suspect me before I suspected you. I don't think that looks any better for you, Morm. And I don't think my arguments are weak at all. You haven't really tried to answer them. Still, I'm waiting to hear what Boro has to say. Last edited by Nerwen; 12-29-2007 at 06:54 AM. Reason: fixed grammatical error |
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12-29-2007, 06:58 AM | #304 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Besides, I said "anyone who disagrees with you". That's all I did!
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12-29-2007, 07:08 AM | #305 |
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,647
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Then I should be suspecting just about everybody then, eh?
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
12-29-2007, 07:23 AM | #306 | |||||
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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As for Isabell, first I was surprised to see someone who had mentioned me once was considering voting for me. Then I was annoyed, as she seemed to be basing her suspicions on things I had already explained and thought were clear enough. About half of the village found Valier's reasoning for her vote for me quite weak, as it was, and I'm curious to know how you can think it's a valid point against me. She's known to have hunches, true, but she can be wrong as well. You seem to be grasping at straws now. Quote:
** My case against Mac, as requested. From his very first post, he suspects Nogrod. Nothing wrong with that, but the way he does it... It looks as if it had been decided beforehand. Mac looks like he's trying so hard to find something in Nog's posts to base suspicion on. They also seemed to be too sure of each other's wolvishness. And they both are a bit too... straightforward, rude? My guess why the plot went bad: as the whole thing had been decided in advance, Mac wasn't careful enough to make his points against Nog better from the very beginning; he knows he's a valuable player for whichever team he's in and didn't believe fellow-Nog would try to get him lynched this early even though Nog sometimes does that with his fellows. He didn't expect Noggie would be accusing him seriously... Quote:
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I'm not going to repeat here what I said in my post #229. Last but not least, the Mac-Saucie argument. Mac seems to be deliberately misinterpreting what Saucie has said, and I don't like that. Besides, he seems to be very quick to suspect those who have suspected him, except for Rikae (hoping he could still convince her of his innocence?). I can't think Mac is anything but a wolf. He's usually too good to leave any obvious tracks, but I believe his and Nog's dispute is such, and it shouldn't be overlooked just because it hasn't happened earlier. edit: xed since #298
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12-29-2007, 07:34 AM | #307 | |||||
Laconic Loreman
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Now onto Nerwen...I have a little card here with an asterisk next to post 155 and 158, I can't believe I almost forgot about this: Quote:
And post 158 is a defense for Nogrod: Quote:
This in 224 from Nerwen looks also strange: Quote:
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Nerwen's vote for Valier, starts the bandwagon against her...anyone notice the votes against Valier began after she had already voted and was likely to not return? I don't trust everyone who voted for Val yesterday...it looks like if a wolf needed saving Val would be an easy "lets get her" target for the wolves. Someone who was quiet, had suspicion building against her, and was not likely to be around for the rest of the day. Edit: crossed with Agan
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12-29-2007, 07:36 AM | #308 | |
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Spamalysis
Okay, going through SpM's posts was not as hard as I feared, but at least I could better concentrate on re-thinking everything and checking my thoughts. Here we go.
DAY1 #119 Says cautious people on Day 1 are suspicious, and says this is me and Nerwen. While he says cautious is my normal behavior, he is uneasy about Nerwen "she seems portraying herself as helpful". Agrees with most people that Shasta is jumpy. #129 Again voices suspicion about Nerwen. Says it's maybe not that hot with Shasta but with the case that's building against him (that was when no one voted him yet by that time). Turns towards Nog while agreeing with Mac. Otherwise, suspects also morm for is "badly founded" cases. Also repeats suspicion of my opening talk about pre-game things. Boro, Eomer, Mac, Kath look normal to him, about Isa, Val, Agan, Miggy, Zali needs to form impression. Votes Nog. Okay, I must say now this seems even more sinister to me than it did originally. I can now imagine very well that SpM is a wolf, and that his vote for Nog was intentional wolf-on-wolf vote. DAY2 #195 Wonders why Shasta died (as many did). Posts the voting record. Is puzzled why Nog did not do more to save himself and why he voted Rikae. Only if he was a wolf, there could be some sinister way to distance himself from Nog behind this - and also to distance himself from the Night kill. But once again, I would be rather careful, as I know how it ends if I analyse someone with too much assumptions. But again, I encourage you to form your opinions on this. #197 Ponders Mac-Nog brotherhood theory, saying it could explain why Nog did not save himself, yet says it's problematic as Mac could have saved him. Says other possibility is Nog decided to sacrifice himself and so make other wolves who voted him look innocent, and says in that case me or Agan could be wolves. Says Eomer and Boro's votes point to that one of them could be a wolf. This post looks like very much pondering, yet full of unvoiced questions. The trouble is, SpM does not often say things plainly, like: "XY is a wolf", but rather "(long talk)...and this could point towards XY...(long talk)", which is of course a good way to implant some opinion on others. #233 Again wonders about Shasta's death, saying Nerwen would not probably have killed Shasta. Ponders Mac, says he backed off his Aganzir theory a little possibly because the same could apply to him. Again says that me or Agan could be wolves. I would like to quote this, actually: Quote:
In the rest of the post, he says he thinks Boro and Eomer innocent as they confessed they were trying to save Nog. Then he says Valier is beginning to concern him. This is what I mentioned in my last post. I don't like this one bit, as I said earlier, also followed by the vote later. #240 Says he's toying with voting one of Nog-voters. Posts list of players. Switchy-defends Aganzir (the same as above, and I really DON'T LIKE that). Otherwise, about most of the people he does not say anything much. Worried about Kath for her Nerwen-case, myself for voting Nogrod (NOTE: SpM, you ask me there why I switched for Nog - I believe you can get the answer if you read the post where I vote), also mentions Valier for her involvement in Nerwen-Kath issue. #241 Says Kath did quite a wolvish thing saying Nerwen overreacted with the Seer-Cursed thing, posts his main suspects (Mac, Val, Kath, me, Aganzir) who he says are very close in his suspicions. #243 Looks at TM. Asks about his reasonings, says his Eomer vote is throwaway one. Wants more explanation from Valier, votes Valier. DAY 3 #272 Posts voting list. Briefly mentions we can't be 100% certain whether there was Ranger involved indeed. (Note down: This, if we find out a Cursed wolf happened, could point towards his innocence.) #273 Says why he put up Mac as his suspect and says he voted Val because there seemed not to be chance to vote Mac. Stops at Nerwen's last minute scream. Okay, this is also one thing that makes me worried. #278 Asks Boro to explain his suspicions on morm or Isa, repeats why he voted Val and not Mac (though I think he is not actually responding to what he was asked). #281 Says my vote for Val could have been wolvish to start a bandwaggon. TM's vote was a throwaway one. He's right about this, but that says nothing even about their relationship with TM (as this is quite an obvious thing). Whatever, this is the last from him this far. So, overall: My feelings have not gone better about SpM after rereading his posts, sometimes they made me even more uneasy. There are some people (like Aganzir probably the most), in whose case, if we learn they are wolves, we could quite well consider it another evidence of SpM being a wolf as well. Of course, then it's possible SpM, even if he is a wolf, simply found himself a "good horse" of the innocents and supports him, so I am not necessarily throwing them away both if one is a wolf. Whatever. Another thing is that I don't like the way he constantly brings back the suspicion on me, first of my opening talk about pre-game things and later. I know I may be touched by this more than other people would, as it concerns my person, but I believe the pre-game thing was solved and SpM was the only one who brought it up again. Then he seems to constantly go after me by hinting, hinting on my vote for Nog being suspicious, yet not acting on his own account. "Voice of Saruman", indeed. As I said, better if you judge for yourselves. But all in all, I have bad feelings about SpM. I will see now whether my powers are enough to make an analysis of someone else yet, but whatever the case, will be back later. Till then, goodbye.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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12-29-2007, 07:46 AM | #309 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Aganzir, as I've stated before, I've had doubts about Mac since Day One. The Mac-Nogrod business struck a number of people as contrived, and I find his counter-attacks on people who suspect him pretty weak.
...On the other, what if he did indeed make a lucky guess about Nogrod– and we lynch him for his pains? I'm still waiting to hear why Boromir88 has suddenly decided Mormegil is innocent. |
12-29-2007, 07:55 AM | #310 | |
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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And agh, I know I shouldn't be concentrating only on him. I'm leaving soon but when I'm back I guess I'm going to do some reading and try to come up with something about others, too.
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12-29-2007, 08:02 AM | #311 | ||
Wisest of the Noldor
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Look, I did not suspect Valier because she suspected me, but because she kept on accusing people without giving proper reasons. I thought she was a wolf, hiding behind "oh, I just have a feeling about so-and-so", rather than giving arguments that could be attacked. I was wrong. As for Kath, I thought she looked wolfish because of the way she voted me immediately after I threw out a mild suspicion against her. I have explained this already. Please remember that I've had a lot of people going after me from the start of the game, attacking me for often weird reasons, then attacking me for defending myself. Does it really surprise you that I think some may be wolves? Quote:
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12-29-2007, 08:08 AM | #312 |
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,647
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(I just got home and haven't read much since my last post...I work a graveyard shift Friday nights and I'm extremely tired so reading is pointless at this moment...hopefully I'm lucid now as I type...anyway I'm going to bed and will hopefully be back in time but if not)
++Nerwen I really feel she is a wolf and feel I have made some fairly valid points against her. I don't have time or the sense right now to rehash those points. I think it wise if somebody else have an objective look at The Might. I find him 'mighty' suspicious now and think an extra set of eyes would be helpful.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
12-29-2007, 08:25 AM | #313 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Boro, I've read Eomer's last post, and I don't get it. Maybe I'm dead from the neck up, as the man said, but I can't even see what it has to do with Mormegil at all.
Please. I really don't want to lynch him if he's innocent. |
12-29-2007, 08:34 AM | #314 |
Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,859
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I'm not sure what Boromir's up to but it will be considered dangerous by his enemies, whoever they are. For now, I'm thinking he's probably innocent. I fear that he has limited time to explain himself so I urge him to do it soon as he can. I can't see what Mormegil has to do with anything I said about the Hunter or the Cursed or whoever.
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Los Ingobernables de Harlond |
12-29-2007, 08:48 AM | #315 | |||||
Laconic Loreman
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Ok, so onto Aganzir and the Might. I'm kind of mixed on Agan. On one hand I'm trusting the judgement of someone's who's judgement I trust more than my own, at the moment. Yet, I think he's said some very valuable, helpful, information thoughout the time here. Also, I'm not sold yet that there was a wolf in the Nogrod voters...if there was I would guess it would be Legate. As witness Nogrod's wolfish behaviors before, I can imagine sacrificing himself and telling buddy Legate to vote for him...casting a "crucial vote" against him. It was Agan who cast the go ahead vote, but there was a cross post and Legate says he was in the mindset that he was casting the deciding vote to put Nogrod into the lead. What particularly makes me feel that Agan is innocent is just some helpful comments like this: Quote:
And what she said about Kath on Day 1: Quote:
Quote:
So, on one hand, Agan looks like an innocent who has reached the wrong conclusion on another innocent. Yet, has been a helpful, willing to contribute person...who after all did cast a crucial vote against a known wolf. On the other hand, I can't shake the feeling that one of the deciding votes cast for Nogrod (either Agan or Legate) is that of a wolf, because of knowing how wolf-Nogrod likes to sacrifice his partners (or himself) to make another look good. See, I told you Kath, this is what happens when I think too much. It was so much easier for me to be a stubborn pig headed lunatic...at least that way I could reach a decision. But I'm gaining more and more distrust with Nerwen. edit: crossed with Nerwen and Eomer...and I'll get to the Might when I have more time...I have to go now.
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Fenris Penguin
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12-29-2007, 09:15 AM | #316 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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I still don't get it what it is with Eomer's post... but there's something Morm said in his reply that makes me wonder. Only it doesn't prove anything. Still– --Mormegil. I think I may have seriously misjudged him. Damn. Now I have no idea who to vote for. |
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12-29-2007, 09:43 AM | #317 | |
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Anyway, I wanted to point out one thing, or rather remind us of it - even though I am currently inclined to believe there was indeed some sort of a plan, there is still the possibility that Nog's death was not planned and the wolves simply failed to save him. Because the Wolves can PM each other, but they can't do that in no time. They have to open PM box, write, send, the other has to be there and refresh the page to notice he has new PM, open it, read it, and then act or even reply once again. This way it could be even possible that both Boro and Eomer are wolves, for example - and they did not have to coordinate how to save Nogrod. In other words, as we are going, let's not forget even the possibility that the death was really an unpredicted loss from the wolves' part.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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12-29-2007, 09:45 AM | #318 | |
Laconic Loreman
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Ok, so now I have some time for TM...
Posts 86, 116, and 117 The Mighthas defended Nerwen. So, despite what Nerwen argues, The Might consistantly defended Nerwen on Day 1. As far as I've seen Nerwen hasn't been so defending of The Might, but has made defenses for him. So, the question is would two wolves be this close and want to defend eachother so...well...closely? Also, Nerwen's recent recanting of her vote for morm I think speaks to her favor, its going to put my stomach in a horrid knot if she dies and she's innocent. So, perhaps both are not wolves, but I would suggest if we ever reach a conclusion on Nerwen, to take a close look at The Might. Nerwen was a prime candidate on Day 1, so it's quite reasonable to say the wolves thought she would end up lynched. And a wolf-TM could come in and play the "I told you so card...didn't I tell you she was innocent?" He didn't vote on Day 1, but I think his explanation is genuine. I also got confused with the voting hours. Although I believe it to be TM explaining what truthfully happened...that doesn't mean that wolves aren't honest. One of the most successfuly wolf tirades was pulled off by the phantom who did not tell a single lie the entire duration. On Day 2, there's not much, he goes with the Valier accusations but casts a throw away vote for Eomer. Up to this point, TM has been playing cautiously. He defends a prime candidate on Day 1, doesn't name any real suspects and doesn't vote, on Day 2 he rouses suspicion against Val but votes Eomer instead. Were you nervous in having the blood of an innocent on you? And his lone post today...#283, seems like Valier noticed about his first post on Day 2...just awkward: Quote:
So... ++The Might I trust two M's but not the M. I'm wary about Nerwen, wary that she's a wolf but has appealed to me, duped me, fooled me into thinking she's innocent. Or that she's truthfully an innocent and we're about to make a mistake. Nevertheless, if it becomes necessary, I will retract my vote for TM and vote for Nerwen.
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12-29-2007, 10:22 AM | #319 |
Guard of the Citadel
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Oxon
Posts: 2,205
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Yes, I know I said that I would have more time on my hands, turns out I might have been rather wrong about that, at least as far today is concerned. Woke up just an hour ago and I have to be somewhere else in 45 minutes so I'll try to take a look at everything as quick as I can.
I still fell that Nerwen is innocent, it's simply the way she has posted so far that rather makes me think she is being targeted on purpose by the wolves. Also, I dislike the way that my posts have been understood as a wolf helping another, but I actually thought that might happen. Also, I'd like you to explain the last part of your post Boro. What is it that you don't you like about that part? The fact that SPM didn't mention when my vote was made? For now my suspects are morm and Eomer. As such I shall stick with my earlier suspicion and vote ++ Eomer I'm off.
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“The invisible and the non-existent look very much alike.”
Delos B. McKown |
12-29-2007, 11:15 AM | #320 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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I'm glad Mac clarified his suspicions of Aganzir. It actually does put my mind at ease, to some degree, about him, although I'm not quite convinced of Aganzir's guilt, either. One thing that does worry me about Aganzir is the whole "he's accusing me so I won't accuse him" thing. It sort of came out of nowhere, seemingly. I think it might be useful to test Mac's "hunch“ on Aganzir – he was, after all, right on Nogrod, and he actually is a highly skilled wolf-hunter. If he's mislead us, we have time to deal with him later.
I have to wonder about Farael at this point. All along I've been writing him off as the normal Farael, aggressive, controversial, etc. - but actually, he is bending over backwards to be uncontroversial. His posts invariably come on the heels of, and echo, another player's suspicions - sometimes echoing the choice of words as well. He did this with my wording that Shasta was "edgy"; he followed Nerwen's suspicions of Valier, and now he is doing the same thing with SPaM and Mac. Sure, he goes after suspects aggressively, as he usually does, but this time the suspects aren't his own. Maybe it's just Lommy's absence... Still, I don't like it at all. It appears that Nerwen and The Might are going to be today's candidates, but I don't find either of the two particularly suspicious. I would prefer to give my vote to Farael, if it wouldn't mean that it would be completely wasted. Last edited by Rikae; 12-29-2007 at 11:19 AM. Reason: punctuation |
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