Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[the phantom]

So, the one single post you were going to make yesterday was dedicated to me?

How sweet of you.

You should've shown up. We could've argued. And then tempers would've flared and you'd get yourself lynched. And when it was discovered that you weren't a WW I would've been lynched the following day to avenge your death.

See what you miss out on when you don't show up!

Just fyi, I will be gone for about seven hours or so, but I'll be around quite a bit the rest of the day. And I'll talk a lot.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

So, the one single post you were going to make yesterday was dedicated to me?

I would have made more posts but that was the only one I'd actually composed by that time since I was busy abandoning you to frolic with another man for a few days, and since my initial return plan was to post my first thoughts upon reading and go from there.

It's phantomocentric because of your penchant for taking over all discussions and directing attention to yourself. Since you're stealing the spotlight, wolves can float under the clichéd radar simply by letting you do it. They don't have to expend effort casting suspicion on somebody else when you're busy garnering everybody's attention. Such a boon to them, giving them invisibility like that by being such a flagrant narcissist.

Originally Posted by phantom

And I'll talk a lot.

Is that supposed to surprise anybody?

("I've missed you, darling... you've no idea...")

[Eönwë]

So, Lalaith has been killed. Laughter doesn't seem to be killed though, judging by tp and Fea's post today.

Ok, so let's look at the:

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Trails of evidence and all that.

Well, she immediately attacks Gwathagor and (at least as I interpret it) accuses him of wolvery. Then she calms down on that case and says that she'll "watch and wait on him".

Next she agrees with Nerwen that cobblers as afraid of lynching wolves as ordos are of lynching gifteds.
Then she immediately votes the phantom, as she says he is cobblerish.

So, was it one of those two (or both) that were wolves, or were they framed?

*dun dun du-u-u-u-un*

*Find out next week on Ye Eönwë Showe.

[Eönwë]

Or was it just completely random?
Or did Lal just seem innocent enough to kill without worrying about her being a cobbler?
Anyway, in this game, we have possibly 5 cobblers. If tp isn't actually officially one, he definately is in playing style.

edit: x-ed with no-one. What a quiet Day this is so far (but it is only 1.5 hours in)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Laughter doesn't seem to be killed though, judging by tp and Fea's post today.

Joker always told me that [s]laughter is the best medicine...

Anyway, I can't help but feel like first-night wolf kills don't reflect a whole lot. Every time I've ever been a wolf, the idea has kind of gone along the lines of, "Well, this person could be the Seer, or not, but either way it's one less enemy off our backs and either way it's not like we've had enough time to leave evidence to convict us."

Of course that's not to say that we should just ignore who said what about her, and what she was saying; it's just pointing out that there's not nearly as much profound meaning to attach to early wolf kills as there is later in the game when they start to get real worried about which player is hording secret information like a highschool kid with a bottle of Jameson.

edit: x-ed with Eönwë

[Nogrod]

So Lalaith it had to be then... that's too bad as she made sense. But also an excellent choice from the wolves. I mean there are certain patterns in wolf-kills even if people may consciously try to avoid them or try to mislead others by acting differently every once in a while. So some people just go for getting the strong or loud players out for maximum effectivity, the others go for sportiness and kill the quiet, some go for the "no-tracks left behind" and others for maximum confusion, and all go out for the seer. And many of us know what to think or where to look, if we see certain kind of pattern emerging from the kills.

Now Lalaith seems to be a pick about anyone of those stereotypes could have made and which could point at any direction.

Now let's look at the next scenario which might be the one which the wolves would like us to come up with:

Lalaith voted for the phantom and just insisted on him without too many arguments. So tp is a wolf and they thought Lalaith is the seer... The phantom voted for Lalaith (though overtime) to make himself look better toDay - just a thing tp would be able to think already in the end of Day1.

Fine and dandy. But at least for now I think it's not the case. It's just a bit too neat. The seer had a dream on Night1 and from all the other 17 she picked the lupine phantom and went for him with a "hunch" and speaking more of "cobblerism" to hide her seerdom. But the wolves thought they had caught her and thence tp voted her to be better off toDay and then they killed her.

Somehow I don't buy that. At least yet.

So maybe it was because Lalaith didn't have any specific suspicions and only voted with her hunch so the kill leaves no track? And it could have been done by anyone...

... and it might point at tp, almost frame him... so who's the most annoyed with him?



What other leads do we have toDay?

There were five votes for Kitanna and it would be an interesting thing indeed if there were no cobblers or wolves in there. Not perhaps in the early voters as it is clear lynching Kit was against their own good (loosing a free "one-villager-down") but maybe later, when it was looking quite clear Kit would be lynched anyhow so they would have tried to take advantage of the obvious outcome (Nerwen, maybe already Nilp?).

Those trying to sway the Kit-lynch early on, eg. those trying to make the lynch more profitable to the wolves, should be ones to be looked at more closely as well toDay. That means basically Lommy, Greenie and Dury.

And even if I think about everyone not voting / posting on Day1 came forwards in the discussion thread explaining their situations I still think it was outrageously too many who went through the Day1 with giving us no or very little clue about themselves. This is no personal disclaimer or anything like that. I'm one of those who always declares that we should really trust what others say and that the game depends on trust in each other's words and deeds outside the game (and distrust for about anything said inside the game). So we just had tough luck this time with 1/3 of the village either not posting or not voting. That's a bit too much even if we can't do anything about it - and it gives the baddies the advantage.

So let's speak toDay, all of us...

EDIT: X'd from Eönwe's first post onwards...

[Eönwë]

Come on- Talk ye invisible people!

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm bored with being the only person around.

I believe in the early-game significance of analyzing first day posts exactly as much as I believe in the easter bunny. Give it a few days and maybe it'll be worth something. Probably not.

You don't get ANYWHERE until people start analyzing the first real wolf kill, because there's nothing for anybody to hide until then. There's no crime. There are no criminals until after the first day is over. First day posts, therefore, hold no evidence of crime.

So I'm going to go read a book. There's no point in me sitting here alone whilst folk across the pond are settling in for bed and everybody else is still busy with their days.

Call me when there's something worth discussing. Like how people react to Wolf Kill One.

Because until we have that? We have nothing worth going except the same old rehashed arguments about hypothetical hunting techniques and friendly banter.

On that note, I think I ought to be in character for a second or two:

I have a dream. A dream where one day... the world becomes kaleidoscopic, like a lemming. Yes... that is my dream. Make of it what you will. It is profound though. Never doubt its profundity.

edit: x'ed with Eönwë, who is as impatient as I.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

There were five votes for Kitanna and it would be an interesting thing indeed if there were no cobblers or wolves in there. Not perhaps in the early voters as it is clear lynching Kit was against their own good (loosing a free "one-villager-down") but maybe later, when it was looking quite clear Kit would be lynched anyhow so they would have tried to take advantage of the obvious outcome (Nerwen, maybe already Nilp?).

But, as Nerwen pointed out, it's in the cobblers' interest to avoid getting one of their wolves lynched (and their fellow cobblers, though that's secondary in importance). And as a wolf, I might well have considered *going with the flow* on that one, myself, even though it goes against my WW 'philosophy' (lolz, I know). There has never been a cleaner appearing lynch and never could be. I'm really going to have to try to not focus on the people who neatly went along with the Kitanna lynch.

I found myself disagreeing with Nogrod on several things already, which makes me feel we are on different sides...in this case meaning he is of an evil sort.

As for the Lalaith kill, she was set on phantom and interested in Gwath. I doubt she was killed as a potential seer because she suspected a wolf, but her suspicion of phantom and her jump on Gwath were both more purposeful than most of the typical musing going on. Anyway, as Eonwe pointed out, she may have just seemed un-cobblerish to the wolves. And as Fea pointed out, she may have been a *maybe the seer* pick without anything behind it.

Nogrod feels bad to me. With all he said yesterDay and toDay about how it's only in the wolves best interest to try and get someone lynched other than Kitanna, yesterDay he developed his own quiet but consistent 'argument' for the lynching of Groin that basically boiled down to "he's quiet and isn't useful", being consistently Nogrod-ish but for show only. And yes, he voted for Groin. I had to go back and look, I couldn't remember at all who he voted for.

As for distinguishing between wolf and cobbler, I just can't begin to do that in my head.

I'll think more, just not right now...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I don't like phantom. I most vehemently do not like phantom. I agree totally with what Fea said; by pulling all attention, all the time, to himself, he's letting the wolves slide by quite nicely. Not to mention that no one ever wants to lynch Phantom because he's (and at least three people have already said this!) "entertaining". It would not surprise me at all to learn that phantom is banking on that very fact.

(Now, do I mention that I have to vote extremely early due to a full schedule tomorrow? Or do I just let my vote hang out there in silence to see what that stirs up?)

++Phantom

*dons his sealskin and swims away*

[Formendacil]

What with getting my ends-of-Days mixed up, and discovering that I may not be on much toDay... you're in for an early vote, I suspect, though I might make it back on to harangue the lot of you in the wee hours.

First of all, the whole business of killing Kitanna yesterDay?

Idiots.

The whole lot of you.

Even those of you who DIDN'T vote for Kitanna are idiots, because you were so scattered and over the map that you may as well have done.

I mean seriously...

When someone's doomed to die, what kind a sloppy passing the buck is it to use that as an excuse to avoid taking responsibility for having to make a legitimate lynch? I mean, Day 1s are normally useless enough as it is... but to make it worse?

Best you could hope for was that Kitanna was a cobbler. If she was a wolf or a Gifted, Mac would probably have mentioned it. So, not only did you abdicate responsibility for killing someone, you did it knowing that the person dying was almost certainly not a wolf.

You didn't even try.

Bah!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

What with getting my ends-of-Days mixed up, and discovering that I may not be on much toDay... you're in for an early vote, I suspect, though I might make it back on to harangue the lot of you in the wee hours.

First of all, the whole business of killing Kitanna yesterDay?

Idiots.

The whole lot of you.

Even those of you who DIDN'T vote for Kitanna are idiots, because you were so scattered and over the map that you may as well have done.

I mean seriously...

When someone's doomed to die, what kind a sloppy passing the buck is it to use that as an excuse to avoid taking responsibility for having to make a legitimate lynch? I mean, Day 1s are normally useless enough as it is... but to make it worse?

Best you could hope for was that Kitanna was a cobbler. If she was a wolf or a Gifted, Mac would probably have mentioned it. So, not only did you abdicate responsibility for killing someone, you did it knowing that the person dying was almost certainly not a wolf.

You didn't even try.

Bah!

We lost two innocents yesterday. Had we lynched someone OTHER than Kitanna, it would have been three. I'm interested to hear just why it's a bad thing that we have one more person alive than we would have had.

Edit: "would have had", not "would have".

[Shastanis Althreduin]

And may I add that you are calling yourself an idiot? I don't know that I speak for everyone else, but I certainly speak for myself when I say I don't like and will not stand for being disparaged by the likes of someone who has apparently never read the parable about glass houses.

Edit: "are", not "were". My grammar gets a bit rusty when I'm annoyed.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

And may I add that you are calling yourself an idiot? I don't know that I speak for everyone else, but I certainly speak for myself when I say I don't like and will not stand for being disparaged by the likes of someone who has apparently never read the parable about glass houses.

Edit: "are", not "were". My grammar gets a bit rusty when I'm annoyed.

Oh yes, I'm delightfully aware of the irony... or, rather, the perception of irony.

See, I didn't deliberately not vote yesterDay. Rather, I got my times wrong, had a cake at work, got home late, and was much, much too late....

But, since I can see into the depths of my soul, I know I would not have voted Kitanna. Voting for someone already on death row is like liking Days 1--I just don't do that.

So I can throw all the rocks I want, in this particular situation: my house ain't glass. (In this case it's a really ugly stucco, so while those who live in stuccoed houses shouldn't go on about shag-carpeted houses.... but that's a convoluted analogy.)

Furthermore, there's a gaping hole in your logic there, Shasta. You aver that had we actually killed someone yesterday instead of rubberstamping the mod's necessary actions, we would have three innocents death.

Rubbish!

Your reasoning assumes that the person killed yesterday would actually have been an innocent. Not necessarily so. Although not quite as statistically possible, one should not think that--on Day 1 of all days!--we would certainly not have hit a cobbler. (Although lupine Fenrii abound, I do not suggest we'd have caught one, since that would go against the grain of my Day 1 tendencies... though I guess it IS logically possible.)

Furthermore, the actions of both the wolves and the Cobbler-Hunter could have been much different last Night if there had been an actual attempt to kill someone. We could, in theory, have three cobblers dead right now, alongside Kitanna.

[the phantom]

Personally, I can't believe that Groin wasn't killed during the night. Did you see what he posted on the Admin thread yesterday?

However, I think that I'll be able to make it tomorrow and I have some argumentative points that I want to make about a potential wolf!

He might as well hang a "Kill me" sign around his neck. It looks so much like a relatively new player who has found a WW with his dream and is chomping at the bit to post. I was sort of expecting to show up today and find him a dead Seer, and everyone slapping their foreheads asking why he had to be so obvious.

As far as Lalaith, I can't imagine she was pegged as a potential Seer. Her words about Nog and Gwath were nothing overly convicting- "benefit of the doubt just for now" and "watch and wait" and she made it clear that her suspicion of me stemmed from Cobblerism, something a Seer cannot see. In addition she doesn't seem to place any one special person in an innocent position, so no Seer flags there either.

Looking through yesterday nobody really raises a Seer flag. Or at least not obviously. A few people did give me Cobbler vibes though, so I would guess that the WWs tried to kill someone they were sure wasn't a Cobbler, and hope they got one of the two gifteds. Of course this means that the gifteds would do well to look slightly Cobblerish. I'm fairly certain they're doing it already though, for I'm seeing a Cobbler in more than four places at this point. Which is why I don't want to point fingers at Cobblers at this time.

[Formendacil]

Okay, because I have to get to bed, and because I really don't know for sure if I'll be back before the deadline (like to, but no promises)...

++the phantom

Because, if I were the mods and I was rigging the game, the four cobblers would be:

Nogrod
Fea

Me

and
the phantom.

And, of the three, the phantom's the only one I can bear to kill.

[the phantom]

Such powerful reasoning. You must care deeply about what happens to this village, Formendacil.

Because, if I were the mods and I was rigging the game, the four cobblers would be:

Nogrod
Fea
Me
the phantom

So you're actually admitting to it?

At this point in the game with all four Cobblers still alive it does indeed make sense to start gathering suspicion to yourself and playing off your usual style and a bit sloppy, but you're taking things a bit too far, Form. Are you really desperate to get out of this village? Feeling pressed for time in RL, so you want to do your bit and get lynched and get out?

I'm wondering if I even want to give you that satisfaction. I say we leave you for the Cobbler Hunter.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

1. a phantom and Groin are wolves.
   

   Hehe. Perhaps. We can safely conclude that a phantom is not a cobbler. I don't think any of us here, were he/she cobbler assassin, could bear not to make him the first target. Anyone disagrees?

2. Formendacil is a cobbler.
   

   I like the way he makes us feel sorry about killing Kitanna with his what-might-have-beens. Neville might not have surrendered the Czechs, and we might not have den Schoa. But he did, so we had. And we're here now. Instead of venting his spleen he could have done something more useful by actually throwing it (i.e., his spleen) at someone he actually suspects.
   
   *parry, riposte*

Will make a post on Lalaith's death later.

[the phantom]

Firstly, I agree completely with your Cobbler points, Nilp. I can't imagine that I wasn't checked by the Assassin last night, and I also am convinced of Formendacil's Cobblerism.

Naturally I disagree with you naming me as a WW. But Groin- I suppose he's a possibility. But I would really have to see more from Groin before I'm willing to go after him.

[the phantom]

And by the way Nilp, if Form is a Cobbler why did he vote for me if I'm a WW?

I think he knows good and well that I'm innocent and wants me gone.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

My statements are not AND ones, more like OR ones. </boolean> I'll be surprised if more than one of them turns out right.

[the phantom]

Ah, I see. Thanks for explaining.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

As far as Lalaith, I can't imagine she was pegged as a potential Seer. Her words about Nog and Gwath were nothing overly convicting- "benefit of the doubt just for now" and "watch and wait" and she made it clear that her suspicion of me stemmed from Cobblerism, something a Seer cannot see. In addition she doesn't seem to place any one special person in an innocent position, so no Seer flags there either.

Actually, tp, I was wondering myself yesterDay whether Lalaith might be the Seer (hiding behind accusations of cobbler-ism), so I don't think it's THAT far-fetched.

Now, I think there is a point to what Form is saying: if we hadn't spent the last part of yesterDay arguing over the benefits of Mith's scheme, we might have come with a proper lynching candidate.

All the same, he is clearly trying very hard to look like a cobbler (and I thought tp was bad). The question (with both of them) is– are they cobblers, or cobbler-impersonators?

EDIT: x'd since tp at #180.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Well, except the 1st one (which is why I grouped you and Groin in the same statement.) Your 'explanation' of Groin's admin thread post can be construed as some sort of barrier-building . . .

Eh?

Don't say 'eh?' There's nothing cute about an older guy saying 'eh?'

Shush.

[Thinlómien]

I can't possibly understand how yesterday's voting became such a disaster. Really, guys, you messed it all up, (obviously because I wasn't there to make sense. ) I still think lynching Kitanna was a stupid idea. Now what kind of playing is that, killing someone who is already dead? Hardly helps us in wolf or cobbler hunting. With the same logic, we can all abstain from voting on Day1 next game if we have no strong suspicions. Really, that was pretty pathetic, as were all the throwaway votes (including mine, it seems *sigh*) and all the no-voting. I can almost concretely hear the laugh of the wolves and the cobblers. (And who was it that said cobblers can't cause confusion? I blame them - at least partly - for that horrible mess yesterDay.) Okay, rant over. But late yesterDay really made everybody look pretty cobblerish to me because you were (almost?) all acting so sillily. Whatever, I guess we can't change the past, but if someone is going to drop out again, I swear I'm going to make sure we don't act as stupidly as we did yesterDay.

Now that I've got that off my heart, I can concentrate on other issues, like why Lalaith was killed or responding earlier points... Post coming soonish, hopefully.

[the phantom]

Form impersonating a Cobbler? I doubt it. Not his style. I'm of sure of him as I am of anyone.

There are a couple of other people that I'm almost certain aren't Ordos, but I'm not sure what they are, and in case they're good I don't want to point them out.

I wish there were more people around right now. But since there's not I'm going to go ahead and go to bed and wake up ready to chat away.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Form impersonating a Cobbler? I doubt it. Not his style. I'm of sure of him as I am of anyone.

I doubt it too. He could be a wolf trying to double-bluff us into not lynching him... but in that case he'd be exposed toMorrow (since he's begging the assassin to go after him toNight).

But... if he's a cobbler does his attack on the phantom mean he thinks tp is innocent... or is he trying to save someone he thinks is an endangered wolf, by launching an obviously dodgy attack on him?

This is rushed because I have to go now. I shall be back in about five hours.

[Thinlómien]

Q: Why was Lalaith killed?
A: No idea.



No reason stands out to me as for why she's dead. If we had a ranger, I would be tempted to say she was killed just to avoid the ranger. I mean, her death was pretty unexpected, at least to me. Maybe it was meant just to baffle us? And of course, the wolves might have been scared of her quick wits and killed her. Or then, Gwath or tp might have been worried about her going after them in future and eliminated a dangerous foe. And no one really suspected her. But is any of these reason enough to kill her? I don't know, I just have a feeling that it's a bit far-fetched. The obvious seer-explanation could be it, but I don't think her posts point to any seerish knowledge on anybody. So was it, like someone said, just general seerishness in the eyes of the wolves, or - like someone else said - simply the fact that she didn't look too cobblerish? I could kind of agree with that last part, for at least in my opinion she was one of the few people who didn't look cobblerish yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Fea

There are no criminals until after the first day is over. First day posts, therefore, hold no evidence of crime.

I think we've debated about this before, but I must say I disagree. The wolves know they're bad and sinful etc, so that might make them act guiltily. Also, they might do lots of things normal innocents are not so enthusiastic about - like trying to make friends, getting gifted-looking people lynched or give advice to each other, just to give a few examples. Oh, and they also have their packmateness to hide from the others. So I think there is plenty of evidence even without a wolf kill.

Going back to the Kitanna lynch, I have come to a rather unhelpful conclusion. The wolves might have gone along the Kitanna lynch to go with the flow and please others. The wolves might have protested against it to get an extra death. The wolves might have only interfered later and made a throwaway vote to avoid attention the following day. The wolves might have had timetable or other problems and not voted at all. So, we can't really conclude anything like "there must be a wolf among those who protested against lynching Kit" but rather, we have to examine individual behaviour and manner. Which means yesterDay's lynch gives us as much to go as any Day1 lynches, or actually less, because so many were absent and the debate was mostly dominated by one issue.

Originally Posted by Shasta

We lost two innocents yesterday. Had we lynched someone OTHER than Kitanna, it would have been three. I'm interested to hear just why it's a bad thing that we have one more person alive than we would have had.

We lost two innocents yesterDay? No, we didn't, unless you include the Night kill... Like Form, I really wonder how can you know we would have lynched an innocent. We would have had a 33,33333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333 % chance to lynch a baddie (and you silly people didn't take it. Argh. Oh, I guess I promised no to rant about it. )

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Actually, tp, I was wondering myself yesterDay whether Lalaith might be the Seer (hiding behind accusations of cobbler-ism), so I don't think it's THAT far-fetched.

I'm not sure if it would be wise of the seer to do so. She needs to leave the villagers a message of a found wolf, and in a game with four cobblers messing around it would be quite silly to mask suspicion towards the wolf as a suspicion of cobblerism.


edit: xed with tp and Nerwie

[the phantom]

Ah, my bed feels extra comfy tonight. But one more post before I set the computer on the floor and shut the eyes.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But... if he's a cobbler does his attack on the phantom mean he thinks tp is innocent... or is he trying to save someone he thinks is an endangered wolf, by launching an obviously dodgy attack on him?

I think you may have latched onto something with that second point. Reading things over I'm thinking that's indeed what may be going on. But I don't want to elaborate on my reasoning too much right now. There's still something that I need to get my head around before I can be sure on which angle to come from.

There is a ploy going on here from someone but there are three possibilities for why it's being done and if I guess wrong out loud I might screw things up for everyone.

I'm also debating what to do about Form. On one hand I'm convinced he's evil and needs to die, but on the other hand can we afford to use a lynch on a Cobbler when we already have an Assassin who can kill him tonight? Or since there are three more perhaps we should go ahead and take him out now?

Let's see here... we could try to find another baddie (likely a Cobbler since there's more of them than WWs) and leave Form for the Night, or we could take him now and allow the Assassin to try out someone new. The advantage of the second scenario over the first is of course that if the Assassin picks wrong nothing bad happens, where as if we pick wrong with the lynch an innocent dies.

Anyone want to calculate some odds or lay out some numbers and whatnot? I'm too tired. It's almost 3 here. Going to bed now.

*zzzzzz*

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

• 31 - some mathematical issue with Nogrod, her thoughts of DAY 1, tells a phantom not to leave all cobbler-hunting to the assassin, and urges post analysis for possible cobblerish behaviour. A rather helpful post for an IC one.
• 93 - thoughts on possible cobbler behaviour, possible wolvish behaviour, a phantom, and a reminder of Fea's schedule.
• 97 - agrees reservations about the voting for Kitanna idea of Mith.
• 98 - some issue with Gwathagor re his declaring Kitanna innocent.
• 106 - continuation of 98. Still suspicious of Gwath.
• 130 - question about the rules, gives Nog the benefit of the doubt, will watch and wait on Gwath, is most worried about a phantom, thinking him rather cobblerish.
• 140 - says that Nerwen's thought on a cobbler possibly being in the Kit-voters was an 'excellent point'.
• 143 - votes for the phantom.

She said things of substance, helpful stuff, telling the wolves that she was most likely not a cobbler. (And they were right.)

But seerlike? Hmm . . . her suspicion of Gwath and the interesting comment of trusting him beforehand does look like a seer's attempt to disguise a dream. Hmm . . .

Enedwaith, some posts about Lalaith:

• Durelin's 109
  

  Both Gwath and Lalaith bother me now. Gwath's done a good bit of back-and-forth-ing already (not sure how to explain...debating more than others in that he doesn't seem to drop things as quickly, maybe), and Lalaith's "fishy" comment feels like an easy stir up of things.[/b]

• a phantom's

On my second reskimming of the thread, Lalaith is making me squirm. I'll read a post of hers and know that she's innocent, and then the next post she makes me think she's up to something.

[Thinlómien]

I'm a bit baffled as to why Shasta voted tp that early as he still seems to have been able to be around. Is he a cobbler or is he just genuinely very annoyed with him? I know tp can be annoying and I've been tempted to vote him just because of that sometimes, but Shasta's behaviour looks quite rash. Cobbleristic, even.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

All the same, he is clearly trying very hard to look like a cobbler (and I thought tp was bad). The question (with both of them) is– are they cobblers, or cobbler-impersonators?

Cobbler impersonators? Sounds unlikely to me. There's no one who'd benefit from impersonating a cobbler. For ordos, there is simply no point. For gifteds or wolves, it's too dangerous. They don't want to get lycnhed. Actually, the only kind of person who'd really profit from impersonating a cobbler is someone who is rather heavily suspected from wolvery. He could try to save his skin by making people think he's just a cobbler. And as there have been no heavy suspicions this far, I don't think there are cobbler impersonators around. Or then either they are or I am stupid... Although, I wouldn't totally discount the possibility of someone like tp impersonating a cobbler just for fun...

But... if he's a cobbler does his attack on the phantom mean he thinks tp is innocent... or is he trying to save someone he thinks is an endangered wolf, by launching an obviously dodgy attack on him?

He could. But I have no idea who'd that be... I mean, no one has been suspected much toDay. And if we assume that Form is a cobbler, he could be thinking that tp is a wolf and launching an intentionally silly-looking attack on tp just to make suspecting tp look ridiculous... but that would be a bit risky, I guess. Or he could be thinking that tp is a fellow cobbler and hoping to put up a proper duel with him. (Even though, he said he won't necessarily be back, so that wouldn't make sense.)

Lastly, I'd really prefer to talk about someone else than the all-attention-grasping phantom of whom I have no proper picture yet (except that he's bossing people around and being self-centered and all that jazz), but I think it's definitely worth paying attention to that he's already received two votes toDay, and neither of them because he'd look wolvish. I smell cobblery here...

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by tp

He might as well hang a "Kill me" sign around his neck. It looks so much like a relatively new player who has found a WW with his dream and is chomping at the bit to post. I was sort of expecting to show up today and find him a dead Seer, and everyone slapping their foreheads asking why he had to be so obvious.

If you really thought he was the seer, why would you point such a thing out? After all, Groin is still alive and if you're right you just pointed it out to the wolves. Though I don't think Groin is the seer....his statement sounded more like an ordinary innocent who's eager to share his thoughts.

Now no more of discussing seers and such! I just wanted to point out tp's comment which sounds a bit cobblerish...

Originally Posted by Nilp

We can safely conclude that a phantom is not a cobbler. I don't think any of us here, were he/she cobbler assassin, could bear not to make him the first target. Anyone disagrees?

I could disagree. There were plenty of people looking cobblerish yesterDay and the assassin could've targeted any one of them. But I do agree that the way tp is drawing attention, an assassin would probably hunt him early on. Perhaps if tp is still alive after the first few Nights, then we can safely conclude he's not a cobbler..

Looking back at the Kitanna debate, here's a summary of what I saw about people's opinions:

For the lynching of Kitanna
Mithalwen
Gwathagor
Shasta
Nilpaurion

Against the lynching of Kitanna
Lommy
Lalaith
Durelin
Greenie
Brinniel

Could've gone either way
Nogrod
Nerwen
phantom
Eonwe

And here was yesterDay's actual voting:

Lommy: ++Nogrod (Nogrod 1)
Shasta: ++Kitanna (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 1)
Gwathagor: ++Kitanna (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 2)
Greenie: ++Gwath (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 2, Gwath 1)
Durelin: ++Gwath (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 2, Gwath 2)
Mithalwen: ++Kitanna (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 3, Gwath 2)
Nilpaurion: ++Kitanna (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 4, Gwath 2)
Lalaith: ++the phantom (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 4, Gwath 2, tp 1)
Nogrod: ++Groin (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 4, Gwath 2, tp 1, Groin 1)
Brinn: ++Greenie (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 4, Gwath 2, tp 1, Groin 1, Greenie 1)
*Nerwen: ++Kitanna (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 5, Gwath 2, tp 1, Groin 1, Greenie 1)
*the phantom: ++Lalaith (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 5, Gwath 2, tp 1, Groin 1, Greenie 1, Lalaith 1)
*Eonwe: ++Greenie (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 5, Gwath 2, tp 1, Groin 1, Greenie 2, Lalaith 1)

Did not vote: Fea, Formendacil, Kitanna, Kath, Groin

*Votes technically didn't count

Quite honestly, I just don't see why a wolf would want to lynch Kitanna rather than have a chance of the death of two innocents in one Day. I think it was Nogrod who mentioned the possibility of a wolf voting Kitanna as a throwaway vote later on, and I agree that could be possible. But for the ones who voted her early on, I'd say it's more likely there's a cobbler or two among them who aimed to distract us and didn't want to risk the chance of lynching a wolf.

Of those who were against lynching Kitanna, I strongly feel that there's a wolf among them. Because of course the wolves would rather have two innocent kills than one.

As for those who gave no such opinion of the matter and those who didn't even vote, they could be anything.

[Brinniel]

Some basic thoughts about players:

Fea: So far I have no clue. She hasn't really posted enough yet for me to get a good read on her.
Shasta: Pops out of nowhere, votes, then leaves...twice now. Mostly sound like it's due to RL interference, but I still find it a bit unsettling.
Formendacil: Was that last post of his a confession or just a weird joke? And if it was a joke, why would he base his vote on that? I think that last post was too bold to be a wolf, but there is something fishy about him....maybe he is a cobbler.
Eonwe: I'm really not sure. But based on yesterDay, he looks like maybe an indecisive ordo.
Nerwen: Is one of those who doesn't give a strong opinion about the Kitanna debate, but then votes for her as an obvious throwaway. Something about her seems a tad wolfish, but again I'm not completely sure.
Kath: Still hasn't shown up.
Nilpaurion: An interesting fellow. YesterDay he came out of nowhere an voted Kitanna bringing her into a much clearer lead...looks like the work of a cobbler to me.
Durelin: From past experiences, I know she can be very dangerous. She was one of those that were against the lynch of Kitanna...she voted for Gwath immediately after Greenie did at a time when Gwath was starting to be heavily talked about. Perhaps a wolf trying to create a second easy lynch target?
Gwathagor: YesterDay, I said I doubted he was a wolf, but probably a cobbler. I feel the same toDay, except perhaps I'm a bit less certain about how cobblerish he really is.
Nogrod: I keep finding me agreeing with him or him agreeing with me...but what does that mean? I don't see anything suspicious about him at this point, but I still don't really know at this point.
Greenie: I have the same feelings about her as I do with Durelin and for the same reasons.
the phantom: Always the center of attention, of course. It's really difficult to say what he could be. He's acting rather cobblerish, so maybe he is one. Or perhaps he's just an annoying ordo. Of course, I would disregard the idea of him being a wolf. While his behaviour seems too bold to be wolfish, I think only tp could act in such a way and pull it off.
Lommy: She was one of the biggest advocates of not lynching Kitanna. And while I said I think a wolf would be among those who had such an opinion, I don't think she's it. I mean, would a wolf be so bold and insistent as she? It just doesn't seem a wolf would be so obvious...
Groin: While I really hate to use outside reasons, his post in the admin thread does make him sound a bit like an ordo. But then again, it doesn't necessarily mean anything. And perhaps I'm just using that to get an opinion because Groin hasn't exactly said all that much...only one post.
Mithalwen: She's the one who originally came up with the idea to lynch Kitanna...there's absolutely no reason why a wolf would do this...and I kinda doubt a cobbler would either. Probably innocent.

So in conclusion....

Possible Wolves:
Nerwen
Durelin
Greenie

Possible Cobblers:
Formendacil
Nilpaurion
Gwathagor

No Idea:
Fea
Shasta
Eonwe
Kath
Nogrod
the phantom
Lommy
Groin

Probably Innocent:
Mithalwen

Yeah, my "No Idea" category is much too long...as always....

It's awfully quiet right now...this probably the last you'll hear from me for the time being, unless a bunch of people post soon. But I'll be back a couple hours or so before deadline.

[Mithalwen]

I only have a little time now and will be back later but I don't have much truck with these attacks on lynching Kitanna. If Gwath turns out to be a wolf I will eat humble pie but I bet they wouldn't think it such a daft idea if we had lynched the seer or the hunter last night. Given that some people were absent or very quiet yesterday it is quite possible that at leasat one wolf has been lying low.

As for these Phantom votes I think he would have rather more subtlety as awolf than to kill the person who voted for him.

I shall need a lot more than that to vote for him because.. I like having him around

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Cobbler impersonators? Sounds unlikely to me. There's no one who'd benefit from impersonating a cobbler. For ordos, there is simply no point. For gifteds or wolves, it's too dangerous. They don't want to get lycnhed.
...

There is a point, ordos don't want to be lynched but they also don't want to be killed at night. As I said yesterday it is going to be a fine line between looking too innocent and being picked off by the wolves and looking too suspicious and being lynched. Therefore looking slightly cobblerish is a good tactic. Especially since they have nothing to fear from the assassin at night.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

We lost two innocents yesterday. Had we lynched someone OTHER than Kitanna, it would have been three.

Pessimist. Did you forget about the SIX bad guys we might have lynched, rather than Kitanna? We were already losing two innocents, yes. But we were by no means guaranteed to make it three; we were betting on the odds to lose two innocents (one that we had no say in) but still manage to salvage the situation by knocking off an enemy.

With the votes all going for Kitanna, the wolves and cobblers got a completely free day without even the threat of death. That might be a first in werewolf history, that an entire village votes for a 'known' innocent rather than even bothering to try to win the game.

Originally Posted by phantom

I can't imagine that I wasn't checked by the Assassin last night, and I also am convinced of Formendacil's Cobblerism.

Which is why I'm inclined to believe you, and support whole-heartedly your narcissism. Hold out and listen to me: I approve of the phantom's approach of diverting all attention to himself because it guarantees that if he's bad, the seer will know it early and we'll be able to kill him, and if he's good, he'll have somebody on his side.

Either way, his actions guarantee him a credible witness rather than just "he feels innocent-ish."

Seers search for the likes of dramatists. They're too dangerous to remain unknowns. I agree with his conviction that he was checked by the Assassin. It's what I'd have done in that place. If he was a cobbler, I feel very strongly that he'd be dead right now.

If I'm wrong? Well, it happens. Either way, I still hold onto my belief that a living phantom who is posting truths and evidence is more helpful in the short term than a dead one.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I think we've debated about this before, but I must say I disagree. The wolves know they're bad and sinful etc, so that might make them act guiltily. Also, they might do lots of things normal innocents are not so enthusiastic about - like trying to make friends, getting gifted-looking people lynched or give advice to each other, just to give a few examples. Oh, and they also have their packmateness to hide from the others. So I think there is plenty of evidence even without a wolf kill.

In which case we really do disagree. I've thought about killing people. That does not make me a murderer. No court on earth has a leg to stand on if they wanted to try to nail me on guilt of being a murderous criminal. Until there is a crime, there is not a criminal. Until there is an ACTION, not a thought, to hide or defend, there is absolutely nothing to prosecute. You can't hold trial for somebody who's 'just thinking about it.'

In that line, somebody who hasn't done anything, having nothing to hide, has no guilt to keep people from noticing. Day One is a day in which nobody is guilty of anything. Nothing has been done. Since there was no crime, nothing to hide: nothing!, there is no evidence to search through.

Everybody is feeling each other out day one. Everyone is looking for possible alliances. Nobody is any more or less suspicious than anybody else.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I'm a bit baffled as to why Shasta voted tp that early as he still seems to have been able to be around. Is he a cobbler or is he just genuinely very annoyed with him? I know tp can be annoying and I've been tempted to vote him just because of that sometimes, but Shasta's behaviour looks quite rash. Cobbleristic, even.

I completely agree. I think I'm going to have to vote early. A friend to pick up at the airport, and I'm not sure I'll be back in time for close of day...

And right now? Shasta's looking to get my lynch-vote.

Gotta go to work...

[Kath]

Well, now I've got my brain in gear, hello! Just posting to let you know I am actually around toDay because I need to disappear and post for an RPG quickly and then I'll be back with you.

[A Little Green]

I'm here at last - though I probably won't be able to contribute as much as I did yesterDay. Firstly, some thoughts about toDay's posts.

Originally Posted by the phantom, about Form

I think he knows good and well that I'm innocent and wants me gone.

Could you elaborate? Why exactly do you presume that Form knows you are innocent?

Originally Posted by Fea

In that line, somebody who hasn't done anything, having nothing to hide, has no guilt to keep people from noticing. Day One is a day in which nobody is guilty of anything. Nothing has been done. Since there was no crime, nothing to hide: nothing!, there is no evidence to search through.

It is true that on Day 1 no crime has yet been committed, and also I agree that Day 1 might be useless in a way. BUT there is one thing I think you do not take into account. It is that even on Day one, the wolves differ from the others in a crucial way. They know who is innocent and who is wolf. All cases they make are fake.

I'm uncomfortable about tp and Mith (what she did yesterDay would be indeed really bold for a baddie but I think she could pull it off, and now everyone seems to trust her..). And I am definitely going to have a look on those who slept under the reindeer in yesterDay's voting on both sides, meaning both Kitanna-voters and the so-called throwaway-voters.

Back with thoughts, hopefully.


EDIT: x-ed with Kath - hello! *waves*

[Gwathagor]

Feanor of the Peredhil - Potential wolf
Shastanis Althreduin - Probably innocent
Formendacil - Potential cobbler
Eönwë – Probably innocent, possibly a cobbler
Nerwen -
Kath -
Nilpaurion Felagund -
Durelin - Cobbler
Brinniel -
Nogrod - Probably innocent
A Little Green - Cobbler
the phantom - Potential wolf
Thinlómien - Probably innocent
Groin Redbeard - Innocent
Mithalwen - Innocent



Normally, I would read Lalaith's death as a sign that tp is not a wolf, as they both voted against each other yesterDay, and most wolves would like to avoid drawing attention to themselves in that way. However, tp thrives on attention and is supremely confident; therefore, he might try it. He could be a wolf, but I can't say for sure.

If tp is a wolf, Fea could be as well given the way in which she set herself firmly against tp right from the beginning of the Day.

And what to make of this:

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

I have a dream. A dream where one day... the world becomes kaleidoscopic, like a lemming. Yes... that is my dream. Make of it what you will. It is profound though. Never doubt its profundity.

(From post #168, emphasis mine.)
I don't think seers actually make seer-hints. The repetition of the word "dream" may only be incidental, but it might also be a wolf's attempt to gain credibility.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

If tp is a wolf, Fea could be as well given the way in which she set herself firmly against tp right from the beginning of the Day.

Contrare- I'm not against him. I'm for him. I have no desire to see him hang, and if votes are looking to head his way, I am going to do my best to get somebody else to die. I repeat: I do not think the phantom is a good lynch candidate. I will not vote for him [at least not today, and probably not tomorrow].

My concentration on his skillful manipulation serves not to convict him but to prove that he intentionally draws enough attention to himself that he is incapable of avoiding the seer, and in this game the cobbler hunter. He makes himself, therefore, into a target.

A target which survived the night.

A target which, if I have any say, will survive the day.

And what to make of this: (From post #168, emphasis mine.)
I don't think seers actually make seer-hints. The repetition of the word "dream" may only be incidental, but it might also be a wolf's attempt to gain credibility.

Don't mind me. If you'll recall, my chosen occupation was something along the lines of a visionary whose visions tend toward the abstract.

Since I missed my day one chance to exploit my chosen role in a post of utter uselessness, I decided to commemorate everybody else's attempts at hiding their cluelessness behind pointless jabber by including a brief and nonsensical clip in my otherwise slightly more serious post.