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04-15-2012, 03:00 AM | #81 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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Bleh. So sorry for yesterDay! I don't think I've ever before remembered a game is on (and even posted, for heaven's sake!) and then forgotten it again, but apparently that is possible. *rolleyes* As for me not trusting the Seer to realize the PMs could be used to contact known innocents - hmm, I guess I'm just not that good with twists, but I certainly didn't think of that before Wilwa pointed it out. (Though I confess I didn't speculate a whole lot about the rule twists in general, it might have occurred to me had I stopped to think.) The deal is, I can be decent at spotting wolves when innocent, or playing innocent when a wolf, but I'm lousy with twists and plots and bluffs. My brain doesn't work that way, for which reason I often miss stuff others find obvious.
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Also, Inzil and Mac bring up a good point about not talking carelessly during the Night phases. Makes me a bit paranoid, actually!
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04-15-2012, 04:47 AM | #82 | ||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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There is actually another issue we should think about if we knew the actual state of the affairs. I mean if the wolves didn't know each other I would say that it would have served the wolves' interests if we didn't lynch anyone on the first Hour. So looking at the developement of that "no lynch thisHour" idea and peoples reactions to it might be a good idea. So could you SS tell us what the rule was? Quote:
No revelations to be sure during nightHours as the wolves can discuss tactics to counter them. I'm tempeted to add Mac's idea about not making any thorough analysis or coming forth with anything like "game-changer" ideas. Which is kind of sad as we for once have a chance to talk 24/7 - and then it's better not to. But I think no can do. Well, it will be easy to me thisHour as I'm now going to bury my head into a pile of essays for the rest of the day.
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04-15-2012, 05:13 AM | #83 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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While making myself a full kettle of coffee I just remembered one more thing we'd need the info about the wolves' initial knowledge or the lack of it.
Now if the wolves didn't know each other the actual votes cast yesterHour tell us more or less nothing (but the "no lynch thisHour" ideas as well as tries to bring on a tie might still mean something), but if they did, that would more or less declare Zil and Mac innocent as voting your mate at that kind of a situation would be reckless indeed (unless Mac tried to make a really bold tie declaring his wish to make a tie and vote for a mate to produce it - uhh, that would be daring and beautiful - but perhaps not that probable).
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04-15-2012, 05:51 AM | #84 | |
Gruesome Spectre
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The fact that they were told not to talk with one another before Day 1 begins would suggest they were aware of their mates' identities. Maybe the moddess will clarify (or perhaps leave it unknown to torment us ).
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04-15-2012, 06:57 AM | #85 | |||
Leaf-clad Lady
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Nog, my issue with your suspicion of me is that you first expressed suspicion over my "dubious" behaviour and only after that came up with a reason why exactly it makes me look evil.
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04-15-2012, 08:31 AM | #86 | ||
The Sweetest Spoiler
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04-15-2012, 09:12 AM | #87 | |
Gruesome Spectre
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Well, I called it.
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04-15-2012, 12:32 PM | #88 |
Gruesome Spectre
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Actually, in the event that the committee did not know one another until the end of the first Hour, not voting would have been the smart way for them to go. That would explain why Wilwa said she was on board with no one dying.
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04-15-2012, 01:22 PM | #89 | |||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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First I only noted that you said a wilwawolf wouldn't have pointed out the scenario with the seer - which is both odd and plainly false - and that it leads you to trust her (well, that she looks good because of that). Now that was looking dubious as itself. But then I also remembered that you tend to be one of those who scorns others for discussing the gifteds and what they should do and now you seemed like perfectly happy with the speculation by wilwa. That made it more suspicious. But to be honest that was not much and - like I said - it bothered me as to why you acted like that. And it was only later I was able to "connect the dots" when I realised there might be a connection between the wolves not knowing each other and them needing to signal each other - and that your behaviour does fit in. So yes I suspected you earlier with less and later with more reasons. And then - in the quote you made originally - said that a lot of my suspicions will depend on what the rules actually were. Talking of which... Quote:
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Although I am interested more in the reactions of the still living rather than explaining why wilwawolf said what she said (which kind of looks self-evident from that POV). It is not any straightforward thing to be sure, I was myself almost bending to the side of thinking let's not lynch anyone - before I realised that it was possible the wolves might love it, and I wasn't willing to give them a free pass in that case. But all that aka. what we can say on these issues depends on whether Sally is willing to tell us or not. Okay. I'm back to read yet one smallish pile of papers for today and hopefully able to stick around for a short while before going to sleep. I hope to see some discussion when I come back.
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04-15-2012, 03:59 PM | #90 | ||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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The story of the no-lynch / tie –idea…
Inzil is actually the person to suggest it already 4 hours before the DL by saying: “Then again, we could vote no one and not have a death toDay”. Wilwa agrees on that.
After that Inzil brings the idea forth again in #33 (not clearly committing to any solution though). I entertain the idea in #35. Rikae slightly disagrees with it in #36. Eönwë goes to and fro with it and ends up more like saying yes than no in #37. With Eönwë’s comments it’s about half an hour to the DL. Quote:
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Mac continues by saying that the lynch will be virtually random (in #40). In #43 he speculates how hard it would be to arrange a tie. I go for a try to get a lynch done in #44 (vote Greenie, 6 minutes to the DL). Rikae says (in #51): "This bugs me. I mean, I can see wanting to prolong a game that may be short, but, as I see it, skipping toDay's lynch is actually to the baddies' advantage". Mac says “Let’s tie it” (votes wilwa, 2 minutes before the DL). Eönwë says he will abstain from voting at .00 hours (in #54). Inzil says “all right” (votes wilwa, at .00 hour), because he trusts Mac to be more innocent than me in #55. Eönwë wants to tie as well (votes Lottie, at .00) in #56.!!! Rikae says she is not on board with the non-lynching / tie at .01, her top suspects are voted for as well (in #58). She realises she had missed the DL already (in #59). ~*~ Votes: Nog -> Greenie Mac -> Wilwa Inzil -> Wilwa 2 Eönwë -> Lottie No one else voted. ~*~ So what do we learn? I still think a lot depends on the fact whether the wolves knew each others' identities or not. But as long as we don't have that knowledge we have to stick to other sources of speculation. Now Inzil looks pretty suspicious to me. He started the speculation in good time and it feels like he first just notched it forwards carefully. Also his willing to lynch a submarine instead of no lynch in as small village as ten looks suspicious. If the wolves did not know each others' identities on Hour1, I would actually be willing to bet (well just a little) on Zil & Greenie being our remaining "committee members". If they did know each other though, then I really need to re-consider as then it looks far less likely, especially Zil's vote would look far better then (well, depending also whether it was a cross post or not). Continuing the speculation... Eönwe's behaviour in the end was kind of interesting as well. First he announces he will abstain from voting, then he tries a tie. Why? Wishing to save wilwa or Greenie then (knowing his mate was in trouble)? He probably didn't know about Zil's second vote for wilwa as it is posted at the same minute. McCaber? Why didn't he vote? He was right there before and after the DL! I'm looking forwards to hear some explanations to that. Also how come Rikae missed the DL as well? Well, she at least cursed it. McCaber I didn't see even commenting on that... I'll add the boldings to the beginning later as I'm willing to post this before the DL (and need to have a cigarette next).
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... Last edited by Nogrod; 04-15-2012 at 04:12 PM. Reason: Bolding done... |
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04-15-2012, 04:04 PM | #91 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
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A cell phone vibrates against a wooden table. Its owner picks it up, illuminating the screen and reading the display.
1 New Message It is our opinion that McCaber should not stay until morning. While he is chattery, he has said little to advance our discussions thus far. Also, he's eaten all the mints. Regards Mere moments later, McCaber receives a call via the Cobbler phone, which informs him that he is needed back home to attend to some work business. He leaves his drink on the bar, gathers his things, and walks out. When he returns home, he finds a check for his expenses and a small cake. In the Cobbler: Rikae Lottie Shasta Dun Greenie Agan Nog Mac Steve Checked out: Boro (went to deal with his puppy after riding out the storm) Wilwa (committee member, realized she left the oven on) McCaber (guest, expelled for hogging the cashews)
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Last edited by satansaloser2005; 04-20-2012 at 04:12 PM. Reason: Typos galore! >.< |
04-15-2012, 04:16 PM | #92 |
Gruesome Spectre
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McCaber, eh? Standard question, "Why him?" I'll look back at what he said, but first this.
Nog, the question of whether the committee knew one another before apparently will remain a mystery, at least for now. As I said here, however, I think not voting would have been the obvious option for baddies in the dark. I did suggest, and considered it. If I were one of the committee, I could have easily followed through on it with consistency.
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04-15-2012, 04:23 PM | #93 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Well then. Forget my questions on McCaber... why him beats me right now, although his last min ute action was odd, and I need to go to sleep like now.
I was having an intention to make a comment about Mac as well but the DL came too early for me to have time to include it there. But okay, swiftly now. So did you really think a tie would have been a good idea Mac? If you are a wolf and knew wilwa was as well it would have been really bold & beautiful; "listen to me, I will make the tie right now and none of you shalll vote after me" - well, that actually sounds more like the phantom... Okay. More later - and hopefully I'm not the only one to post on this thread thisHour.
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04-15-2012, 05:56 PM | #94 |
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What can we get from McCaber? These are the only posts that might stand out.
Here he refutes Greenie, who liked Wilwa's comments about the Seer getting the most benefit from private communications. He said that didn't mean Wilwa was evil, but also wasn't necessarily innocent because of that. Maybe him being concerned about the Seer was a red flag? That's pretty shaky. Here he says he gets "honest vibes" from me, but singles out Greenie as the one he liked least. He was non-committal about everyone else. He failed to vote, and after DL said he thought Mac and I were probably innocent because of our votes. And that's pretty much it. I wouldn't think his being targeted would point to Greenie on its own, since he wasn't very forceful about it, and didn't actially vote. That said, Greenie's support of Wilwa does raise an eyebrow for me.
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04-15-2012, 06:05 PM | #95 |
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Shasta sneaks off to his room. The weather is making him uneasy.
(The weather is bad in his area, so he may be here very little or not at all.)
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04-15-2012, 07:51 PM | #96 |
Fading Fëanorion
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My first impression of the McCaber-kill was that it made sense. Inzil and I look most innocent after the voting yesterHour(???) and were thus likely ranger picks. Unless they thought I was the seer (obviously not the case), it was not worth going after either of us. McCaber looked pretty innocent (I thought), so he was a good no-trace kill, since the only solid thing he leaves is some early strategy discussion and him thinking Inzil and me are innocent. He did also say that he liked Greenie least among the one-posters.
Analyzing the voting, I noticed that Nog was in fact only the third person to mention Greenie negatively (Rikae and McCaber did so before). If he's a wolf who knew that Wilwa might be in moderate trouble, picking up on the mild suspicions of others, elaborating on them, and placing a preventative vote, would make sense to protect his fellow. Much more innocent-looking than waiting for a Wilwa-vote and then trying to put up a competing bandwaggon on the fly. I do like Nog's point against me. It's wrong, but I still like it. If I was a wolf and Wilwa innocent, that's definitely something I could see myself doing. However, I would have been more strongly about telling people to make the tie possible (while hoping and being optimistic that it would fail). Doing wolf-on-wolf in such a situation is an entirely needless risk, though. And, yes, I did think a tie would have been a good idea. There was little participation and the village had virtually no clue what it was doing. Our chances were little above the random 27%. |
04-15-2012, 08:40 PM | #97 | ||
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I was antsy about voting for anyone Hour 1, but in the end I felt no one leaving would play to the baddies more. I still think that would have been much better for committee members who didn't know one another. That might look a bit bad for Eönwë, putting up Lottie at the last minute and making, as far as he knew, a three-way tie.
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04-15-2012, 10:59 PM | #98 | |
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Sorry I'm late! My cab driver took a shortcut through Canada...I think he might have been avoiding the storm. I'm here now, though! [/IC]
Really, though, sorry I'm late. Quote:
Zil's point here makes sense, but I don't like the way he phrases it, especially not the last sentence. It's natural to defend yourself, but this feels a bit too...needlessly defensive, considering that he was one of the two people who killed our first committee member.
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04-16-2012, 07:12 AM | #99 | |
Gruesome Spectre
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This is all since my last? I trust Shasta made it through the storms all right?
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04-16-2012, 08:57 AM | #100 |
Mellifluous Maia
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I don't understand.
What indication was there that the committee didn't know each others' identities on Day 1? It seemed like a pretty straightforward case of not being able to PM each other (because it was day). The identities of other wolves are commonly sent in the role pm - looks to me like Sally is just leaving it open to create mystery now that Nog brought it up. As for Nog's use of it, it doesn't seem necessary as an explanation for why the committee would want to skip yesterHour's lynch, anyway. They only needed to eliminate five people: five hours if they were lucky. I'm sure they would prefer that three of those hours be on their own terms, ie, "night", rather than three up for risky voting. I'm also a bit confused about your vote, Inzil. All's well that ends well and everything, but you'd expressed a desire to tie the votes earlier, and then broke the tie, explaining it by saying you trusted Mac. What was that about? |
04-16-2012, 08:58 AM | #101 |
Mellifluous Maia
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Wait, ok, I see that Inzil says he changed his mind.
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04-16-2012, 09:08 AM | #102 |
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04-16-2012, 12:12 PM | #103 | ||
Gruesome Spectre
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Voting in four hours! Even for such few players, things surely are quiet.
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04-16-2012, 01:40 PM | #104 |
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Well, I was originally not going to vote at all, because I couldn't see someone who I could genuinely say I found suspicious. Then, when Mac suggested the lynch-tying (which I completely forgot about), I thought that it would probably be best to go with that, considering the fact that with so little posts, the committee would clearly be at an advantage with vote-steering, and that it might be best to try to keep it as a lynchless tie. What didn't occur to me in my tired and confused state at the time was the obvious counterargument, that by spreading the votes so thinly it makes it easy for anyone to lynched (which is what happened). Now, looking back, I've realised that it was also a bad idea because not killing anyone basically makes it a Night 1 kill with more knowledge had by the committee, which is definitely a bad idea.
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04-16-2012, 01:46 PM | #105 |
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A thought I've just had is that if Mac is a committee member, he may have been trying to set up an early distancing between him and Wilwa by lightly suspecting her and then voting her, yet suggesting a tied vote so that no-one actually died. It would probably be quite a good tactic. If this is the case, then in one sense it backfired horribly, but in another it means that Mac now looks quite innocent by being half responsible for her death.
One thing that definitely does come out of the voting yesterHour, though, is that unless Wilwa agreed to be sacrificed, I highly doubt that Inzil would risk voting her.
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04-16-2012, 02:19 PM | #106 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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After a full day at work and then spending my afternoon and evening with students' essays I was finally coming in here with a fear in my mind that I have to read two pages of heated debate and try to take in a host of different theories and reactions (like my head wasn't already overblowing from reading, and valuing & weighing the things I have read today).
Heh. I see I had presumed too much... Pull yourself together now! (myself included) Okay. I'll do some reading and see if there is something constructive to be said. I hope some other people are joining me in that effort. (I'm not sure I can afford to stay awake to the DL as I have an early morning call and the DL is 1AM here - but let's see)
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04-16-2012, 02:51 PM | #107 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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How is it Inzil? Was it a cross post or did you wish to get wilwa lynched? Also another question to you Zil. You were clearly around at the DL between lastnightHour and thisHour, but you didn't feel the need to say anything before thisHour began and someone will/could be dead. It looked more like you waited for thisHour to begin and then posted something. Can I ask what made you so sure you will not be dead and everything or anything you would have wished to say (as your testament, if one wishes to put it that way) would remain unvoiced forever? I mean sure you had thought about things after your last visit and if you were killed by the wolves (removed by the committee) your words would have been listened to - not as infallible truths but - as a POV of an innocent. You know full well who can be secure not to die during the Nights... On an other issue that springs to my mind at this moment... Rikae wished to vote and make a difference but failed to do so. Mac wished to make a tie and managed to get a wolf lynched... Talk about the difference between words and deeds. Okay. Back to reading.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... Last edited by Nogrod; 04-16-2012 at 02:56 PM. |
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04-16-2012, 03:04 PM | #108 | |||
Gruesome Spectre
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Really, what were you looking for?
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04-16-2012, 03:11 PM | #109 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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It seems Aganzir is not playing! (look at the disc. thread)
So what we actually have right now is 6 vs. 2 Rikae Lottie Shasta Dun Greenie Nog Mac Steve If we get the lynch wrong thisHour and the committee members manage to oust one more the nextHour it will be 4 vs. 2. Thas as such is not the red-light marker, but I don't like the way our numbers dwindle even if we manage to kill the wolves (remember that game where the villagers killed a wolf every Day and still lost?). But the bigger problem right now I think is the power of two votes together the wolves can produce - especially as we seem to have these more or less non-participating players as well. *coughShastaLottiecough* Luckily this "if you do not vote in two consecutive Hours, your vote will be cast randomly" -rule might after all save us... But it would be much better if people voted instead of leaving it to that kind of random. I see Zil has posted...
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04-16-2012, 03:26 PM | #110 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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I didn't say that you haven't posted anything until now. No and no. What I meant was this. If you are an innocent you don't know whether you see the dawn of the next Day or not, as you don't know whether the wolves kill you or not (sorry about lapsing back to this more familiar werewolf-language, but I'm trying to make myself clear without ambiguity). The wolves, on the contrary, know they will be alive the next Day as they do the killing (except in some special games with special circumstances). So if we now had the possibility to speak out before the DL (from Night to Day) and you were around, why were you not concerned whether the DL brings news about your death and thus shuts your mouth for the rest of the game? Wasn't there anything you wished to say as your parting words if they did kill you? We would have listened closely to the words of an proven innocent (even if they're not infallible, they are honest). Remember, the wolves need not to fear that but they can just sit back and relax and wait for the DL to pass - they possibly didn't even come to think that for the innocents that DL is a question of an uncertain life and death as to them it is no big deal... hmm... Do you see now what I meant?
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04-16-2012, 03:36 PM | #111 |
Mellifluous Maia
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Nog, while that might be true in an ordinary game, it's my understanding that here if Inzil were night killed he would be able to make a statement (to someone)!
There was also a bit of discussion about why nighttime discussion wouldn't be wise. You seem to be reaching a bit here, to be honest. |
04-16-2012, 03:36 PM | #112 | |
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EDIT: xed with Nog and Rikae
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04-16-2012, 03:39 PM | #113 | ||
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x/d with Rikae and Lottie
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04-16-2012, 03:43 PM | #114 |
Gruesome Spectre
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The latest from Rikae and Lottie aside, I've also had the sense Nog is rather reaching this Hour. There was also, as has been noted, the uncertainty sown by questioning whether the committee knew one another when the game began. I guess I can see an innocent wondering about that, but it would also be an excellent way for a baddie to take away any aura of goodness from Mac and me after we'd killed their fellow.
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04-16-2012, 03:43 PM | #115 | ||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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What was the problem of talking too much during hte Night? The fact that the wolves can PM on the base of that as they are allowed to do that during the Night. RIght? But if you post something at the last minute before the Day begins there is no way they have time to react to that by PM'ing each other.
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04-16-2012, 03:45 PM | #116 | |
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Quote:
EDIT: xed with Zil and Nog
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04-16-2012, 03:48 PM | #117 |
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I won't be here at DL, so I'll need to vote in a bit.
Right now I'm thinking Eönwë or Nog. Steve, because of his vote, and a general feeling of trying to keep out of the spotlight, and Nog for trying to connect dots that are miles apart.
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04-16-2012, 03:49 PM | #118 |
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I would be on board with a Nog lynch. But isn't DL in ten minutes?
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04-16-2012, 03:50 PM | #119 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Why is it that you people turn in ten minutes before the DL?
If you're going to play that way in the future, then please lynch me and get me out from this miserable game where trying turns into suspicion by those who turn in at the last minute. I mean this is quite pathetic indeed.
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04-16-2012, 03:51 PM | #120 | |
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Quote:
x/d with Nog
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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