Arda Cup Soccer 2008- Phantasy- er, I Mean Fantasy Thread

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

The playoffs will match winners of groups with 2nd place finishers of groups in this fashion-

A-H
B-G
C-F
D-E
E-D
F-C
G-B
H-A

How about the next round? Are the matches divided then so that the teams from the same initial group can not meet? I mean going with the same logic - first game vs. last game might bring teams against each other who have already played each other. If fex. the best teams of group H both beat their opponents from group A then they would play against each other on the next round again...

An option would be to cut the list in two in the middle.

Then it would follow that
A1-H2 - D1-E2
B1-G2 - C1-F2
and
E1-D2 - F1-C2
G1-B2 - H1-E2

etc...

[the phantom]

How about the next round? Are the matches divided then so that the teams from the same initial group can not meet?

I assumed we would go basic bracket format. Following the given format (A vs H, B vs G, etc), the winners and losers of groups are already in opposite sides of the draw, therefore they cannot meet until the final.

Match 1: A1-H2
--------------------Match 9: 1 Winner vs 2 Winner
Match 2: B1-G2
------------------------------------------------------------Match 13: 9 Winner vs 10 Winner
Match 3: C1-F2
--------------------Match 10: 3 Winner vs 4 Winner
Match 4: D1-E2
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Finals
Match 5: E1-D2
--------------------Match 11: 5 Winner vs 6 Winner
Match 6: F1-C2
-------------------------------------------------------------Match 14: 11 Winner vs 12 Winner
Match 7: G1-B2
--------------------Match 12: 7 Winner vs 8 Winner
Match 8: H1-A2

[Nogrod]

That looks perfectly fine!

[the phantom]

Because of the way schedules have worked out, you all have another 22 hours to set your fantasy rosters. And then round 3 results will begin coming out.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by phantom in the Arda2008 -thread

As the seconds ticked away both squads seemed determined to eliminate their foes from contention, but the defenses held, and the game ended with a 2-2 tie. Many of the fans were confused, wondering what that result would mean for the group standings. And then the group point totals flashed on the screen.

Annuminas- 5
Angband- 5
Valimar- 5

A three way tie!

And then the goal differentials-

Annuminas +1
Angband +2
Valimar +2

The orcs and dragons sent up a mighty cheer as their team would be advancing to the playoffs. The only question left- who had won the group? Valimar or Angband?

I think one way that has been used in this kind of a situation is the number of goals scored. So the team that has scored more goals is the team #1. If even that is even then you need to create something like a penalty shoot-out competition or just throw a coin (even that has been done in RL!).

I'll try to write the group G results before going to sleep - if I just stay awake...

[the phantom]

If even that is even then you need to create something like a penalty shoot-out competition

Yes, that's what they'll do.

I'll post the shoot-out after the group G results are up.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I'll post the shoot-out after the group G results are up.

Up they are...

[the phantom]

As soon as the shoot-out result is up, if Nilp would be so kind as to put up another one of those lovely group charts.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Please wait.

[skip spence]

So, what will happen if the scores are even after 90 min in the knock-out stages?

The standard 2*15 min extra time and a penalty shootout if nessesary?

And how will goals in extra time be delt with? I believe the "silver goal"-rule (I think that's what they call it: what a drab name huh) is normally used nowadays; that is, after a goal in extra time the ref will end the match when the 15 minute period they are playing in at this time concludes, unless the score is once again tied, in which event the match would be allowed to continue.

Hm. Later today I have to give some thought to my transfers as I believe quite a few of my players have been eliminated, and some others stand to be eliminated in the last 16. How the mighty have fallen!

[Nogrod]

ALQUALONDE
G- Olwe 1
DF- Earwen
DF- Cirdan
DF- Frodo
DF- Elwing
MF- Eriol -1
MF- Lindo
MF- Bilbo 3
MF- Uinen 3
FW- Osse 3
FW- Gil-Galad 4

AMON RHUD
G- Ebor 3
DF- Sagroth 2
DF- Forweg 2
DF- Forhend 1
MF- Avranc
MF- Ragnir
MF- Asgon
MF- Gethron -1
MF- Grithnir
MF- Algund 3
FW- Androg 4

ANGBAND
G- Carcharoth 1
DF- Balrog #2 -1
DF- Uldor
DF- Balrog #3 -1
DF- Balrog #4
MF- Balrog #5
MF- Balrog #6
MF- Ulfast -1
MF- Melkor 8
FW- Gothmog 3
FW- Ancalagon 4

ANNUMINAS
G- Arvedui -3
DF- Tarcil 2
DF- Elendur 1
DF- Earendur 2
DF- Tarandor 2
MF- Arveleg -1
MF- Argeleb
MF- Eldacar
MF- Arantar 4
MF- Valandur 3
FW- Araphor 7

ARMENELOS
G- Elros 5
DF- Tar Atanamir 3
DF- Tar Ciryatan 4
DF- Tar-Telperien 3
MF- Ar Zimrathan 1
MF- Tar Calmacil 1
MF- Ar Adunakhor 1
MF- Ar Gimilzor 1
FW- Tar Ancalimon 3
FW- Tar Minastir 8
FW- Ar Pharazon 7

BREELAND
G- Old Man Willow 1
DF- Bob
DF- Goldberry -1
DF- Nob
MF- Odo Proudfoot
MF- Sardoc Brandybuck
MF- Harry -1
MF- Butterbur
MF- The Barrow-Wight
FW- Bill Ferny -1
FW- Tom Bombadil

BRETHIL
G- Hardang 1
DF- Hundad
DF- Nienor
DF- Handir -1
MF- Brandir
MF- Manthor -1
MF- Dorlas -1
MF- Halmir
MF- Hunthor 2
MF- Haleth 5
FW- Haldir

DORIATH
G- Melian 1
DF- Elured
DF- Luthien
DF- Elurin -1
DF- Saeros -1
MF- Nellas 3
MF- Daeron
MF- Dior 5
MF- Elwe 3
FW- Mablung 4
FW- Beleg 4

EDORAS
G- Theoden 2
DF- Aldor
DF- Folcwine -1
DF- Frealaf
MF- Thengel -1
MF- Folca -1
MF- Theodred
MF- Brytta -1
MF- Eowyn 8
FW- Eomer
FW- Eorl 4

EREBOR
G- Bain 1
DF- Nain
DF- Thorin
DF- Thror -1
DF- Brand
MF- Dain
MF- Thrain -1
MF- Girion 8
MF- Beorn
MF- Bard 2
FW- Smaug 4

FORMENOS
G- Huan 4
DF- Celegorm 4
DF- Caranthir 3
DF- Curufin 4
DF- Celebrimbor 7
MF- Amrod 1
MF- Amras 1
MF- Maglor 1
MF- Aredhel 9
FW- Maedhros 4
FW- Feanor 7

FORNOST
G- Aragost 2
DF- Aravir 2
DF- Argonui 2
DF- Arador 2
DF- Amlaith 1
MF- Aranuir
MF- Arahad -1
MF- Aranarth 5
MF- Arassuil
FW- Arahael 7
FW- Arathorn 3

GONDOLIN
G- Tuor 3
DF- Salgant 1
DF- Galdor 2
DF- Meleth 2
DF- Turgon 2
MF- Rog
MF- Idril
MF- Penlod 2
MF- Eol 11
FW- Ecthelion 4
FW- Maeglin 4

GONDOR
G- Beregond 1
DF- Anardil
DF- Atanatar I
DF- Minalcar -1
DF- Dervorin
MF- Golasgil
MF- Hirluin
MF- Valacar
MF- Calmacil -1
FW- Faramir 3
FW- Imrahil 4

HELM’S DEEP
G- Erkenbrand 1
DF- Gram
DF- Walda
DF- Goldwine -1
MF- Brego
MF- Hama
MF- Fengel -1
MF- Frea
MF- Elfwine
MF- Eomund
FW- Helm -1

HITHLUM
G- Huor 3
DF- Galdor 2
DF- Marach 1
DF- Gundor 2
DF- Hador 2
MF- Angrod -1
MF- Aegnor -1
MF- Fingon 3
MF- Hurin 8
FW- Fingolfin
FW- Turin 4

ISENGARD
G- Beechbone
DF- Snaga
DF- Deor
DF- Skinbark -1
MF- Mauhur
MF- Treebeard
MF- Lugdush
MF- Freawine
MF- Quickbeam -1
FW- Ugluk
FW- Saruman

LOTHLORIEN
G- Galadriel 1
DF- Gollum -1
DF- Arwen
DF- Gimli
DF- Celebrian
MF- Nimrodel -1
MF- Rumil
MF- Orophin
MF- Amroth -1
MF- Haldir
FW- Eldarion

MICHEL DELVING
G- Sam
DF- Bungo
DF- Drogo
DF- Gerontius
DF- Lotho -1
MF- Ted Sandyman
MF- Fatty
MF- Gaffer -1
FW- Merry
FW- Pippin
FW- Bullroarer

MINAS TIRITH
G- Ecthelion II 2
DF- Calimehtar
DF- Ondoher
DF- Earnil II
DF- Beregond -1
MF- Turin II
MF- Denethor II
MF- Telumehtar -1
MF- Boromir I 3
MF- Mardil
FW- Earnur 4

MIRKWOOD
G- Oropher 2
DF- Lagduf
DF- Galion
DF- Muzgash -1
DF- Gorbag
MF- Nazgul #8 2
MF- Grishnakh -1
MF- Grimbeorn
FW- Thranduil 8
FW- Legolas 4
FW- Scatha 4

MORDOR
G- Shelob 1
DF- Nazgul #7
DF- Shagrat -1
DF- Gothmog II
DF- Nazgul #6
MF- Nazgul #5 -1
MF- Nazgul #4 -1
MF- Nazgul #3 5
MF- The Mouth 8
FW- Khamul 3
FW- The Witch King 7

MORIA
G- Watcher 1
DF- Kili
DF- Ohtar -1
DF- Oin
DF- Great Goblin -1
MF- Narvi -1
MF- Balin
MF- Bolg 8
MF- Durin -1
MF- Durin’s Bane
FW- Azog 7

NARGOTHROND
G- Beor 5
DF- Bregolas 4
DF- Bregor 4
DF- Belegund 4
DF- Gelmir 4
MF- Baragund 4
MF- Barahir 0
MF- Glaurung 1
MF- Finrod 9
MF- Beren 1
FW-Gwindor 4

OSGILIATH
G- Romendacil 1
DF- Meneldil
DF- Siriondil
DF- Cemendur -1
MF- Telemnar
MF- Narmacil
MF- Earnil 5
MF- Ostoher -1
MF- Falastur 3
MF- Eldacar 8
FW- Hyarmendacil

RIVENDELL
G- Elrond 4
DF- Gildor 4
DF- Celeborn 4
DF- Erestor 4
DF- Gandalf 4
MF- Valandil 1
MF- Elladan 0
MF- Elrohir 1
MF- Aragorn 6
MF- Boromir II 9
FW- Glorfindel

ROMENA
G- Amandil
DF- Tar Meneldur
DF- Tar Elendil
DF- Vardamir -1
DF- Tar Aldarion
MF- Anarion -1
MF- Tar Miriel
MF- Tar Surion
MF- Tar Palantir 3
MF- Elendil
FW- Isildur 4

TANIQUETIL
G- Mandos 2
DF- Este 1
DF- Vana 2
DF- Nessa 2
DF- Aule 2
DF- Yavanna 2
MF- Nienna
MF- Thorondor 4
MF- Varda
MF- Manwe
FW- Lorien 3

TUNA
G- Orodreth 1
DF- Elenwe
DF- Guilen
DF- Ingwe -1
DF- Duilin
MF- Egalmoth
MF- Finarfin
MF- Nerdanel 11
FW- Mahal
FW- Finwe
FW- Miriel 11

UMBAR
G- Pelendur 2
DF- Calimehtar -1
DF- Ulrad
DF- Brodda -1
DF- Folcred
MF- Angamaite 5
MF- Sangahyando
MF- Fastred 3
FW- Beruthiel 8
FW- Nazgul #9 3
FW- Castamir 4

VALIMAR
G- Ungolient 1
DF- Ulmo
DF- Alatar
DF- Pallando -1
DF- Radagast
MF- Arien
MF- Orome -1
MF- Tilion 3
MF- Earendil 8
FW- Tulkas -1
FW- Eonwe 4

TOL-IN-GAURHOTH
G- Drauglin 5
DF- Hookbill 4
DF- Gwathagor 4
DF- Cailin 4
MF- Lhuna 0
MF- Thuringwethil 1
MF- Eomer 0
MF- the phantom 4
FW- Formendacil 3
FW- Nogrod 3
FW- Sauron 4

[Nogrod]

1. Gwathagor- 80 + 47 = 127
2. McCaber- 63 +43 = 106
3. Skip- 63 + 35 = 98
4. Eomer- 60 +36 = 96
5. Lhuna- 64 + 30 = 94
6. Cailín- 53 +39 = 92
7. Anguirel- 65 + 26 = 91
8. Nogrod- 49 + 37 = 86
9. Elmo- 52 + 25 = 77
Formendacil- 51 +26 = 77
Nilp- 44 + 33 = 77

I hope you tp check these but I think they ought to be about right.
(the latter number is the points gotten on the third round)


Quite a nice lead Gwath! But pay heed also how even it is after Gwath! And the three last players are at exactly the same points!

[skip spence]

If I may come with a suggestion ahead of the knockout stages, I'd like to propose the added feature of choosing a captain for our team ahead of each round of play. The captain of each team will then have his score multiplyed by two, which will be added to the team's total (fex. the cap. scores a goal and an assist, gets 8 points *2=16; or he gets himself sent off and acores -3*2=-6)

This feature is present in fex. the official EPL fantasy league, and could IMO spice things up a little and perhaps give us a chance to catch Gwarth (or lose even more ground).

[Nogrod]

Not a bad idea as such Skip.

But we might also try to look out for the unexpectable!

I mean if everyone just tries to find the point-leaders the game is a bit stupid as anyone can spot those ones. So home yourself a daring tactics and see whether it pays off or not... Catching Gwath means that you must choose differently and gamble and win...

I'm going to go the risky way anyway (well, there's not too many beauties or beasts left to choose in teams that will probably advance to the later stages... ).

But I'm slightly for the ruling about the captain - even if I'm afraid many people will choose the same ones which just keeps the situation as it is and makes the people go for the same foreseen names in the drafts - and those not actively updating their teams will be on shorthand on this as they have will not make the choice (which in the end is their own problem to be sure).

Daring! That's what we need to get Gwath, I say!

[Nogrod]

Okay. Sorry about the double-post in this occasion...

The problem with the captains is that their value becomes too important. So everyone tries to find the point-leader captain and then all of this narrows down to which individual captain one has chosen. Under that pressure people tend to make similar choices (the point leaders) and all this we have been doing for a couple of weeks degrades to the quesswork of whether Ar Pharazon, Hurin or The Witch King will outscore one another...

That's the problem there. There are good things in it as well - like giving us others a chance to reach Gwath...

But somehow I still think we others trailing him should rather go for the unexpectable and try to beat him with that.

Well, it's up to the phantom to decide.

[Nogrod]

Okay. My team seems to have three obsolete players now.

DF- Nessa (Taniquetil)
DF- Yavanna (Taniquetil)
FW- Smaug (Erebor)

I need to get replacements for them. It's hard if we only have six changes available for the end of the tournament.

My reason tells me to quit my policies of sticking into beauties and the beasts but I will go for it anyway - and the only way to make a difference is to guess differently than you others.

So here are my bets then...

--Nessa (Taniquetil)
++ Luthien (Doriath)

Doriath's chances of getting to the next round after a play-off match with Armenelos are scarce indeed but here I will put my faith for a miracle. I may have to change this defender-post later but then I will do it if I can afford it. Anyway Luthien has always been one of my favourites and even if her tally looks pretty poor right now I'll just trust that she and her team will rise to the occasion.

-- Yavanna (Taniquetil)
++ Balrog #4 (Angband)

Another hard choice but Angband should beat Fornost giving Balrog #4 at least two games to play - and Hithlum / Mirkwood are not too scary opponents so that might be a good change indeed - not that Mordor defenders would be point-automats - looking how much there has been scoring against them... but maybe staying alive for a round or two.

-- Smaug (Erebor)
++ Miriel (Tuna)

I hate to see Smaug go but I've no chance here. I do owe it to the Tuna team that I once trusted them for real. I mean at the last round I was about to recruit both Miriel and Nerdanel to my team and they made 22 points together at that round! The chances of Tuna getting forwards from the game against Nargothrond are slight indeed but as you others will play for Nargothrond to win I will try my luck with this choice.

I probably should also change Scatha as Mirkwood team are clear underdogs in the game against Hithlum but I will not waste one of my precious changes there before the game - a miracle could happen there as well... - and there are no beast or beauties in the Hithlum team...


Beasts and Beauties (Nog)

G- Huan (Formenos)

DF- Tar Telperien (Armenelos)
DF- Cailín (Tol-In-Gaurhoth)
DF- Luthien (Doriath
DF - Balrog #4 (Angband)

MF- Idril (Gondolin)
MF- Aredhel (Formenos)
MF- Glaurung (Nargothrond)

FW- Ancalagon (Angband)
FW - Miriel (Tuna)
FW- Scatha (Mirkwood)

[skip spence]

What is clear with this feature is that it's easier to gain or lose points quickly.

But what you are saying holds a lot of merit too. Having played fantasy football at premierleague.com several years now I know from experience that if one player starts to dominate the scoring it may come to a point that you just can't afford to take any chances with the selection, leaving everyone with the same captain which is kind of boring. It was like that with Cristiano Ronaldo this past season and it was like that with Thierry Henry too a few years back.

That said, I still favour the idea, as I don't believe there is one obvious star who constantly performs better than everyone else and is expected to continue doing som as was the case with Henry and Ronaldo irl. I haven't added up any total points leaders (why we should!) but I've got the impression there are many players who've racked up good scores so far, making it a challenging task picking the right captain.

But it is indeed The Phantom's decision.

[the phantom]

I just wanted to make sure that everyone remembered this-

Originally Posted by me

In each round of the playoffs you can predict the winner of each match. For every one you get right you will be awarded a fantasy point.

And also, there are also fantasy points to be awarded for correctly predicting the group outcomes. I will post official totals later tonight and set a deadline for the beginning of the playoffs.

For now, you are allowed six trades before the playoffs begin. Remember, no more than four players from one team. The games are-

Rivendell vs Valimar
Tol-In-Gaurhoth vs Mordor
Formenos vs Amon Rhud
Nargothrond vs Tuna
Gondolin vs Umbar
Armenelos vs Doriath
Hithlum vs Mirkwood
Angband vs Fornost

And just fyi, the group winners will be playing at home in the first round.

[the phantom]

All right- points for group predictions....

Eomer- 18
Form- 16
Ang- 14
Nilp- 14
Nog- 14
McCaber- 14
Gwath- 13
Lhuna- 11
Skip- 11
Elmo- 10
Cailin- 9

5 of 11 correctly called Group A.
1 of 11 had Group B. (Cailin)
6 of 11 had Group C.
No one had Group D. (no one had Umbar advancing)
2 of 11 had Group E. (Skip & Ang)
No one had Group F. (everyone besides Gwath had Taniquetil advancing)
2 of 11 had Group G. (Eomer & Nilp)
9 of 11 had Group H. (The two that didn't just had the winners reversed.)

10 of 11 called Rivendell to win Group A.
6 of 11 had TIG winning Group B.
7 of 11 had Formenos in Group C.
5 of 11 had Nargothrond in Group D.
9 of 11 had Gondolin in Group E.
5 of 11 had Armenelos in Group F.
3 of 11 had Hithlum in Group G.
9 of 11 had Angband in Group H.

[Gwathagor]

Bwa ha ha. Domination abounds. Looks like those couple of trades really did the trick.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

It's a marathon, not a sprint.

More predictions coming soon.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Rivendell defeat Valimar.
Tol-in-Gaurhoth defeat Mordor.
Formenos defeat Amon Rhud.
Nargothrond defeat Tuna.
Gondolin defeat Umbar.
Armenelos defeat Doriath.
Hithlum defeat Mirkwood.
Angband defeat Fornost.

Safe predictions, yes, but I feel it's often wise to play the percentage game.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

- Este, Aule, Arien and Tulkas.

+ Bregor, Turgon, Idril and Ancalagon


So my team is now:

G - Elrond (Rivendell)

DF - Bregor (Nargothrond)
DF - Turgon (Gondolin)
DF - Cailin (T-I-G)
DF - Celeborn (Rivendell)

MF - Idril (Gondolin)
MF - Melkor (Angband)
MF - the phantom (T-I-G)

FW - Feanor (Formenos)
FW - Gothmog (Angband)
FW - Ancalagon (Angband)

[skip spence]

Well, first I have to get rid of my deadweight.

- Mandos; Aule; Gollum; Tom Bombadil

Replacements:

Despite Nogrod's wise words to the contrary I will do the obvious and sign Formenos lynchpin Feanor. On his current form, no one can stop him but himself.

Huan the hound will replace Mandos. The latter is obviously better at keeping souls from getting out of his domain, than preventing balls from entering it.

Caranthir the Dark will also enter my team. As far as I'm aware no defender has scored yet in the Cup which is remarkable. Here's hoping aggressive Caranthir will be the first.

Finally Salgant of Gondolin will round out the team. I belive his corpulence might come in handy blocking shots to help his team keeping cleen sheets.

Updated team:

Shadwell Army
G- Huan (Formenos)
DF- Salgant (Gondolin)
DF- Ulmo (Valimar)
DF- Caranthir (Formenos)
DF - Celeborn (Rivendell)
MF- Melkor (Angband)
MF- Eärendil (Valimar)
MF- The Phantom (T-I-G)
FW - The Witch King (Mordor)
FW- Turin (Hithlum)
FW- Feanor (Formenos)


Predictions:

Valimar to defeat Rivendell (The divine skill of the Ainur will eventually prove too much for the strong Rivendell defence)

Tol-in-Gaurhoth to defeat Mordor. (Sauron playing for T-i-G instead of Mordor will tip the scale in favour of the home team)

Formenos to defeat Amon Rhud. (Amon Rhud have done extremely well to come this far. Formenos are too strong though.)

Nargothrond to defeat Tuna. (Orodreth is not dependable in goal and would probably rather have liked to play for the home team as well. Glaurung will roast him.)

Gondolin to defeat Umbar. (Gondolin will prevail despite the flair of Queen Beruthiel)

Doriath to defeat Armenelos (Armenelos have done extremly well thus far but I'm hoping the Girdle of Melian will hold, and Doriath to create un upset. It might go to penalties though).

Hithlum to defeat Mirkwood. (Turin, Hurin and co are too good for the unorganized Mirkwood defence)

Angband to defeat Fornost. (The might of Melkor and the Balrogs is too much for the rangers without their captain Aragorn)

[Nogrod]

Okay. Here's my predictions for the first play-off round.



Rivendell beats Valimar

Rivendell has been one of the most consistent teams in the tournament and their defence is solid as a rock. Valimar's game has not convinced me and they will lose the game.

Tol-in-Gaurhoth beats Mordor (in extra time or in a penalty shoot-out)

This will be a tough one and the Mordor team will finally test the skills of T-I-G. T-I-G has had an easy tournamet this far and they will have hard times with Mordor's brilliant and tough offence. But as it is the T-I-G it will finally go through...

Formenos beats Amon Rhud

Amon Rhûd just doesn't stand a chance here. Formenos is far superior team in every field of the game and takes an easy win if they don't come to the game too self-assuredly.

Nargothrond will be beaten by Tuna

A wise predicter would not put all his eggs to a same basket and as I have chosen a Tuna player to my squad I'd be sensible to go here for a Nargothrond victory. But I'm going for the jackpot. So it's time for the next giants to drop out of the games. Nerdanel, Miriel and Finwë will outscore Gwindor and Finrod. Plain and simple.

Gondolin beats Umbar

Umbarians have already exceeded the limits of their capabilities and have no chance against one of my favourites to win the whole tournament. Gondolin is just too tough a team for Umbar to beat.

Armenelos loses to Doriath

Another risky prediction. But Melian's girdle will hold against the waves of Numenorian attacks and Mablung & Beleg rise to the occasion. It will be tight game though and may go to extra-time or even penalties. Actually I believe it to be otherwise but who cares...

Hithlum is beaten by Mirkwood

It will not happen but I'm being consistent here and going for the surprise and the jackpot once again. Thranduil, Legolas and Scatha will outscore Turin, Hurin and Fingon. Lots of goals in this game - might go to overtime...

Angband beats Fornost

One of the easy ones here. Fornost has done well to come this far but now they meet some real teams that actually play football and their time is out.

[McCaber]

Trades:
-- Ulmo (Valimar)
++ Celebrimbor (Formenos)

-- Belegund (Nargothrond)
++ Eol (Gondolin)

G- Melian (Doriath)
DF- Tar Atanamri (Armenelos)
DF- Gandalf (Rivendell)
DF- Celebrimbor (Formenos)
MF- Melkor (Angband)
MF- the phantom (Tol-in-Gaurhoth)
MF- Hurin (Hithlum)
MF- Eol (Gondolin)
FW- Gothmog (Angband)
FW- Ecthelion (Gondolin)
FW- Maedhros (Formenos)

Picks:
Rivendell over Valimar
T-I-G over Morder
Formenos over Amon Rudh
Nargothrond over Tuna
Gondolin over Umbar
Armenelos over Doriath
Hithlum over Mirkwood
Angband over Fornost

[the phantom]

You have 48 hours to make your predictions and trades. Tomorrow morning I will send pms to people who I haven't heard from yet.

[Gwathagor]

Predictions

Rivendell vs Valimar = Rivendell
TIG vs Mordor = TIG
Formenos vs Amon Rhud = Formenos
Nargothrond vs Tuna = Tuna
Gondolin vs Umbar = Gondolin
Armenelos vs Doriath = Armenelos
Hithlum vs Mirkwood = Hithlum
Angband vs Fornost = Fornost

Trades

--Melkor
++Nerdanel (Tuna)

--Ar-Adunakhor
++Boromir II (Rivendell)

--Eomer
++Hurin (Hithlum)



Updated Team

G- Elrond (Rivendell)
DF- Celebrimbor (Formenos)
DF- Tar-Atanamir (Armenelos)
DF- Gandalf (Rivendell)
MF- the phantom (TIG)
MF- Boromir II (Rivendell)
MF- Nerdanel (Tuna)
MF- Aredhel (Formenos)
MF- Eol (Gondolin)
MF- Hurin (Hithlum)
FW- Maeglin (Gondolin)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Predictions:

Rivendell < Valimar
Tol-in-Gaurhoth > Mordor
Formenos >>> Amon Rhûd
Nargothrond > Túna
Gondolin >>> Umbar
Armenelos > Doriath
Hithlum >>> Mirkwood
Angband >>> Fornost

EDIT: My team already had the Round of 16 in mind ( ), so no need to change anything.

[Cailín]

Rivendell over Valimar
Tol-in-Gaurhoth over Mordor
Formenos over Amon Rhûd
Túna over Nargothrond
Gondolin over Umbar
Doriath over Armenelos
Mirkwood over Hithlum
Angband over Fornost

And the team:

Lose: Old Man Willow, Vana, Yavanna, Treebeard, Bilbo, Witch-King

Gain: Tuor, Grimbeorn, Elenwe, Lhuna, Balrog 4, Maedhros

G - Tuor (Gondolin)
DF - Elenwe (Tuna)
DF - Luthien (Doriath)
DF - Balrog 4 (Angband)
MF - Eomer of the Rohirrim (T-i-G)
MF - Lhuna (T-i-G)
MF - Aredhel (Formenos)
MF - Aragorn (Rivendell)
MF - Boromir II (Rivendell)
MF - Grimbeorn (Mirkwood)
FW - Maedhros (Formenos)

[the phantom]

Here are the standings heading into the playoffs. Gwath has done awfully well thus far, but if anyone happens to hit on their pre-tournament predictions (top goal scorer, assister, fantasy point scorer, overall winner) then there is still a chance to even the score as all of those are worth ten points each.

The first game of the playoffs will be posted in about 21 hours. Best of luck to everyone. If you haven't made predictions are trades yet, hurry it up!

1. Gwath- 140
2. McCaber- 120
3. Eomer- 114
4. Skip- 109
5. Lhuna- 105
-- Ang- 105
7. Cailín- 101
8. Nog- 100
9. Form- 93
10. Nilp- 91
11. Elmo- 87

[Formendacil]

First things first... which players have to be culled...

Hmm... Unless I'm missing something, I can't find any. My team remains as was.

G- Elros
DF- Lúthien
DF- Gandalf
DF- Hookbill the Goomba
DF- Balrog #2
MF- Amrod
MF- Ar-Adunakhor
MF- Aragorn II
FW- Formendacil
FW- Gwindor
FW- Glorfindel

Now, then, to predictions...

Rivendell will defeat Valimar
Tol-in-Gaurhoth will defeat Mordor
Formenos will defeat Amon Rudh
Nargothrond will defeat Túna
Gondolin will tie Umbar
Armenelos will defeat Doriath
Mirkwood will defeat Hithlum
Angband will defeat Fornost

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Gondolin will tie Umbar (Formendaga)

In the playoffs, a game never ends in a tie. There will be extra times uncountless, and, if the tie persists, there shall be a penalty shoot-out. One of them has to advance, after all.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

In the playoffs, a game never ends in a tie. There will be extra times uncountless, and, if the tie persists, there shall be a penalty shoot-out. One of them has to advance, after all.

Then I append to that that Umbar will break the tie. But they will tie.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I see . . . though you could have said that earlier.

[Nogrod]

AMON RHUD
G- Ebor 2
DF- Sagroth
DF- Forweg
DF- Forhend -1
MF- Avranc
MF- Ragnir
MF- Asgon -1
MF- Gethron
MF- Grithnir -1
MF- Algund
FW- Androg

ANGBAND
G- Carcharoth 5
DF- Balrog #2 4
DF- Uldor 4
DF- Balrog #3 3
DF- Balrog #4 4
MF- Balrog #5 1
MF- Balrog #6 1
MF- Ulfast 0
MF- Melkor 1
FW- Gothmog 7
FW- Ancalagon 7


ARMENELOS
G- Elros 5
DF- Tar Atanamir 3
DF- Tar Ciryatan 4
DF- Tar-Telperien 7
MF- Ar Zimrathan 1
MF- Tar Calmacil 0
MF- Ar Adunakhor 4
MF- Ar Gimilzor 6
FW- Tar Ancalimon 3
FW- Tar Minastir 4
FW- Ar Pharazon 4

DORIATH
G- Melian 1
DF- Elured
DF- Luthien
DF- Elurin
DF- Saeros -1
MF- Nellas
MF- Daeron
MF- Dior
MF- Elwe -1
FW- Mablung -1
FW- Beleg


FORMENOS
G- Huan 4
DF- Celegorm 4
DF- Caranthir 4
DF- Curufin 4
DF- Celebrimbor 4
MF- Amrod 3
MF- Amras 1
MF- Maglor 6
MF- Aredhel 6
FW- Maedhros 7
FW- Feanor 7

FORNOST
G- Aragost 2
DF- Aravir
DF- Argonui
DF- Arador
DF- Amlaith -1
MF- Aranuir
MF- Arahad -1
MF- Aranarth
MF- Arassuil -1
FW- Arahael
FW- Arathorn

GONDOLIN
G- Tuor 3
DF- Salgant 2
DF- Galdor 2
DF- Meleth 2
DF- Turgon 2
MF- Rog -1
MF- Idril 3
MF- Penlod
MF- Eol 4
FW- Ecthelion 7
FW- Maeglin 7


HITHLUM
G- Huor 3
DF- Galdor 2
DF- Marach 2
DF- Gundor 1
DF- Hador 2
MF- Angrod 3
MF- Aegnor
MF- Fingon 8
MF- Hurin 8
FW- Fingolfin 4
FW- Turin 7


MIRKWOOD
G- Oropher 2
DF- Lagduf
DF- Galion -1
DF- Muzgash -1
DF- Gorbag
MF- Nazgul #8 -1
MF- Grishnakh 3
MF- Grimbeorn -1
FW- Thranduil
FW- Legolas
FW- Scatha 4

MORDOR
G- Shelob 1
DF- Nazgul #7
DF- Shagrat -1
DF- Gothmog II
DF- Nazgul #6 -1
MF- Nazgul #5
MF- Nazgul #4 -1
MF- Nazgul #3
MF- The Mouth 8
FW- Khamul 3
FW- The Witch King 4


NARGOTHROND
G- Beor 2
DF- Bregolas
DF- Bregor -1
DF- Belegund
DF- Gelmir
MF- Baragund
MF- Barahir -1
MF- Glaurung 8
MF- Finrod 8
MF- Beren
FW-Gwindor


RIVENDELL
G- Elrond 4
DF- Gildor 2
DF- Celeborn 2
DF- Erestor 1
DF- Gandalf 2
MF- Valandil
MF- Elladan -1
MF- Elrohir
MF- Aragorn 3
MF- Boromir II
FW- Glorfindel 4


TUNA
G- Orodreth
DF- Elenwe
DF- Guilen
DF- Ingwe
DF- Duilin -1
MF- Egalmoth
MF- Finarfin
MF- Nerdanel 3
FW- Mahtan 3
FW- Finwe 7
FW- Miriel 8

UMBAR
G- Pelendur 1
DF- Calimehtar
DF- Ulrad
DF- Brodda -1
DF- Folcred
MF- Angamaite -1
MF- Sangahyando
MF- Fastred
FW- Beruthiel 3
FW- Nazgul #9 -1
FW- Castamir 4

VALIMAR
G- Ungolient 3
DF- Ulmo 2
DF- Alatar 1
DF- Pallando 2
DF- Radagast 2
MF- Arien -1
MF- Orome
MF- Tilion
MF- Earendil 3
FW- Tulkas
FW- Eonwe 4

TOL-IN-GAURHOTH
G- Drauglin 1
DF- Hookbill -1
DF- Gwathagor
DF- Cailin 3
MF- Lhuna
MF- Thuringwethil 3
MF- Eomer -1
MF- the phantom3
FW- Formendacil 4
FW- Nogrod 3
FW- Sauron 4

[Gwathagor]

When do we find out the match-ups for the next round?

[the phantom]

Quarterfinals-

Rivendell vs Tol-In-Gaurhoth
Formenos vs Tuna
Armenelos vs Gondolin
Angband vs Hithlum

Go ahead and make trades if you wish, so long as you state clearly who is leaving and who is replacing them.

Make predictions as well for bonus points. Since there were eight points up for grabs in the first round I have decided that there should be eight bonus points again. So, every match is worth two points.

In about 12 hours I will count up fantasy points and release new standings, unless Nogrod happens to be available before then and has the urge to do it himself.

You have 36 hours to change your fantasy rosters and make predictions. Good luck.

[Gwathagor]

Predictions
Rivendell beats TIG
Formenos beats Tuna
Gondolin beats Armenelos
Angband beats Hithlum

Trades and Switch to 4-3-3 Formation
--Tar-Atanamir
++Gildor (Rivendell)

--the phantom
++Balrog #2 (Angband)

--Nerdanel
++Ancalagon (Angband)

--Hurin
++Feanor (Formenos)

G- Elrond (Rivendell)
DF- Celebrimbor (Formenos)
DF- Gandalf (Rivendell)
DF- Gildor (Rivendell)
DF- Balrog #2 (Angband)
MF- Boromir II (Rivendell)
MF- Aredhel (Formenos)
MF- Eol (Gondolin)
FW- Ancalagon (Angband)
FW- Feanor (Formenos)
FW- Maeglin (Gondolin

[Nogrod]

There seems to be three obsolete players again in my team.

DF- Luthien (Doriath)
MF- Glaurung (Nargothrond)
FW- Scatha (Mirkwood)

Sticking with policies seems to be a bit challenging and probably not leading into the exact direction I'd wish but I'm not giving up just yet... so here it comes.


-- Luthien (Doriath)
++ Elenwë (Túna)

Having two Formenos and two Túna players in the roster isn't the brightest idea but let's see... well at least some survive to the next round.

-- Glaurung (Nargothrond)
++ Melkor (Angband)

It's sad to let Glaurung go. It has given me a lot of points in this tournament. I wavered a bit between Nerdanel and Melkor as I would have loved to see Nerdanel back in my team, but betting so heavily on Túna winning over Formenos felt like a bit idiotic. And after all as the Hithlum team will not be able to provide me a single player it's better they drop out asap. and thence I will be backing the Angband team to take a full advantage of that...


-- Scatha (Mirkwood)
++ Sauron (Tol-In-Gaurhoth)

As I thought the last round, this change was about to come. As Rivendell team is another one that won't help me at all being just fair elves, wizards and men - and all male - I will love to see them drop from the tournament and will go betting on behalf of T-I-G -team.


Beasts and Beauties (Nog)

G- Huan (Formenos)

DF- Tar Telperien (Armenelos)
DF- Cailín (Tol-In-Gaurhoth)
DF- Elenwë (Túna)
DF- Balrog #4 (Angband)

MF- Idril (Gondolin)
MF- Aredhel (Formenos)
MF- Melkor (Angband)

FW- Ancalagon (Angband)
FW- Miriel (Tuna)
FW- Sauron (Tol-In-Gaurhoth)



And the predictions then...

Rivendell gets beaten by Tol-In-Gaurhoth

The last match showed that the famous Rivendell defence can be broken and that's just where T-I-G will hit the hardest plain outscoring the Imladris-sissies...

Formenos will lose it to Túna

It's clear all the reasons speak for Formenos to win but I'll stick to Túna having now found the fighting spirit and led by Miriel they should fly forwards from this tight match to meet T-I-G in the semifinals.

Armenelos will be brought down by Gondolin

Armenelos defence has been rock solid and they have pretty intimidating offence as well but they have been playing a bit easier opponents thus far (Taniquetil turned out to be just paperback heroes) and will be tested only now. Gondolin will make it to the finals so they need to win this one.

Angband beats Hithlum

Hithlum is a great team but even the greatest find their superiors one day. And this is the day for Hithlum. Old rivals from Angband will do it once again and will march towards Gondolin for the semifinals.