Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Lynch tally

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

+12:09 Nilp - Zil (Zil - 1)
+19:09 Nerwen - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 1)
+21:14 Boro - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 2)
+21:35 Greenie - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 3)
+22:11 Lommy - Zil (Zil - 2, Legate - 3)
+22:27 Nienna - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 4)
+23:00 wilwa - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 5)
+23:10 Brinn - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 6)
+23:34 Pitchie - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 7)
+23:39 McCaber - Zil (Zil - 3, Legate - 7)

Oh, there were four of us?

+23:47 Nessa - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 8)
+23:53 Nogrod - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 9)
+23:55 Zil - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 10)
+23:58 Legate - Zil (Zil - 4, Legate - 10)
+23:59 Sally - Legate (Zil - 4, Legate - 11)

No vote: alonariel, Shastanis Althreduin

What can we conclude from that? Hm . . .

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Sqwuak! I am a parrot!

You know it's a bad thing when you've just copy-pasted: ' - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 7)' after a majority of names, just changing the number at the end.

Intentions, intentions, intentions . . . well, at least some of you made reasonable arguments against Legate (e.g. Nogrod, who remains at the unknown edge of my 'good' book), but some . . . Angamandi, Nessa showed up, voted Legate, and disappeared!!!

The rest of the village falls in between. Except McCaber and I. Got your riot shields ready, buddy? We be seein' tomatoes.

EDIT: Added 'no vote'.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Curses, Sally! Me not first. Ah, well, my list is infinitely superior in pulchritude.

This is all your fault, you know? I was having a grand time chasing imaginary mice with an imaginary iron Christmas tree when you dragged me into this village.

[satansaloser2005]

Awwww. Nilp doesn't love his Sally anymore?

*sniffles*

I'll go drown my sorrows in an analysis. Who? I'll surprise you.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Well, I got one good little thing out of your reactionary antirevolutionary ( ) list.

Shasta didn't vote. I had to go back and check if he posted yesterDAY, and he did. Just once, though. So probably the imaginary 'real life' (how bourgeois) took him away.

*chases butterflies with Engels*

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Hakon

One thing we also need to think about is part of the safety the wolves gain from killing one a night. Because we know that at least once the wolves have chosen to kill one a night we expect it to always have been their choice. It could happen that we end up guarding a wolf and we just assume that they chose to have one kill that night. It could mean a wolf not getting lynched.

Not worth it. To quote myself at #224 (replying to Nilp):

If they did, they were giving up a kill solely in order to give them a possible advantage in a possible future situation. It can only pay off if we happen to guard a wolf while all four of them are still alive, and maybe not even then.

On that note:

Possible (not necessarily mutually exclusive) reasons for the lack of second kills, in no particular order:

1 Wilwa is a wolf (i.e. the wolves framed Legate to take the heat off her).

2. Nogrod is a wolf. (He was Guarded last Night.)

3. The wolves are trying to "insure" themselves against a possible situation in which Wolf 4 (or the last wolf alive) is Guarded and thus would be revealed by the missing kill. (Suggested by Nilp yesterDay and Hakon toDay.)

4. The wolves are terrified of known innocents and consider it worth giving up their most obvious advantage in order not to create any. (Suggested by Legate and toDay by Zil. Or rather, there are others who agree the wolves might have done this, but I believe only those two consider(ed) it a worthwhile tactic.)

5. The wolves assume that the village will lynch the Guarded person every time there's a missed kill. (See above.)

6. The wolves are playing dumb, to mislead us as to their identity. (Suggested by Wilwa.)

7. On each Night, there was no second kill that would not heavily implicate a pack member. (This is very unlikely, at least as the main reason, but I thought I might as well cover everything.)

3., 4., and 5. are interesting, not because they're terribly good tactics, but because the wolves may think they are.

[Inziladun]

A sensible summary, Nerwen.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

1 Wilwa is a wolf (i.e.the wolves framed Legate to take the heat off her).

I think the liklihood of that depends on how much 'heat' Wilwa was under.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

2. Nogrod is a wolf. (He was Guarded last Night.)

Certainly possible, but with no double kill last Night, and no Seer to vouch for him, we have no way of knowing that doesn't involve his death.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

3. The wolves are trying to "insure" themselves against a possible situation in which Wolf 4 (or the last wolf alive) is Guarded and thus would be revealed by the missing kill. (Suggested by Nilp yesterDay and Hakon toDay.).

That's plausible, but I think it unlikely to be the prime motive.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

4. The wolves are terrified of known innocents and consider it worth giving up their most obvious advantage in order not to create any. (Suggested by Legate and toDay by Zil. Or rather, there are others who agree the wolves might have done this, but I believe only those two consider(ed) it a worthwhile tactic

It does seem a strong lure that tactic would hold. Known innocents=less confusion for the village. That makes the most sense to me.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

5. The wolves assume that the village will lynch the Guarded person every time there's a missed kill. (See above.)

Surely they won't take that as a given, after Legate was proven innocent. But confusion is a powerful weapon.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

6. The wolves are playing dumb, to mislead us as to their identity. (Suggested by Wilwa.)

That would suugest they possess a good deal of experience and cunning, and wish to hide it.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

7. On each Night, there was no second kill that would not heavily implicate a pack member. (This is very unlikely, at least as the main reason, but I thought I might as well cover everything.)

With the sheer number of innocents remaining, I think that can be discounted for now.

[Brinniel]

Hmm...I think the best thing to do now is to look back at everyone yesterDay. We obviously can't make much judgment on the votes themselves, but picking up some comments and behaviours players had towards Legate's guilt could help give us some clues to which of them are the wolves. That's something I'd like to do, but I don't have time now, so it must wait.

The one-kill tactic isn't the smartest plan since it does give us more opportunities to lynch, but it still leaves us with uncertainty. We can't know for sure whether the wolves chose one kill or if Nogrod is actually guilty. We obviously don't want to repeat our mistake from yesterDay, but at the same time, we can't just disregard him. We need to lynch based on suspicious behaviour and not just from the results of the Night Guard. That's how it should be.

Btw, I'm not sure how active I'll be toDay since I am in the process of finding furniture for my bedroom.

[McCaber]

Well, all that I can say is that I was right. The guarding was an extremely easy tactic for the wolves to manipulate. In fact, I would not be surprised if the Legate lynch was largely driven by the wolves to see how much they could get away with.

Considering how wide the margin was in favor of Legate, I can even see all four wolves voting him. I mean, Nilp and I were the only ones who didn't, and I'm having a hard time seeing a wolf in him.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

INTENTIONS AND CAPABILITIES OF THE VILLAGERS OF UPPER DOWNSBURY

Prepared by Da Fool

For internal circulation only. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE.

Section 1: Known and Suspected Capabilities of the Villagers of Upper Downsbury

All villagers of Upper Downsbury are capable of casting a single vote towards the person they wish to be executed at the end of the DAY, and another vote towards the person they wish to be protected during the NIGHT by the Night Guard.

Some villagers are capable of things beyond the casting votes (see appendix: Gifts and Curses) but there remain at this moment no irrefutable evidence to confirm the manifestation of such gift or curse in any individual in the village.

Section 2: Stated Intentions of the Villagers of Upper Downsbury

• Yavannië the 3th of the Year 2009 of the Seventh Age: The villager known as Legate of Amon Lanc (henceforth referred to as Legate) received the vote of the majority of the villagers of Upper Downsbury, leading to the deployment of the Night Guard around the premises of his domicile. It has been proven that this protection disables whatever gift or curse the guarded person may possess.
  
  There being four Werewolves in the village there is great prejudice towards the killing of two villagers during the NIGHT, save if one of their fellows has been protected by the Night Guard.
  
  
• Yavannië the 4th of the Year 2009 of the Seventh Age: The murder of the villager known as Mnemosyne has been announced by the Mayor of Upper Downsbury, Eönwë. Later in the DAY, due to the evidence of the single kill during the previous NIGHT and his being under the protection of the Night Guard, Legate received the vote of the majority of the villagers of Upper Downsbury, leading to his execution by drowning.

Below are the statements of most of the living villagers, indicating their reasons for believing Legate guilty or otherwise. Conspicuously absent is the statement of the villager known as alonariel, who has not broken silence since the beginning of the Werewolf invasion.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I'm going out in a bit but think it is interesting that there was only one kill. Of course it could be that Legate's a wolf (LYNCH!) or the wolves could be trying to frame him. But I think the former may be more likely because you would think the wolves would want to get two kills in whenever possible. And besides, if we decided Legate was innocent they could always kill him toMorrow Night or something. So....I don't know. I'm too hungry to think. Back after supper.

Taking the unwillingness of the Werewolves to hold back on a second kill as fact, the villager known as Sally comes to a logical conclusion that Legate must be a Werewolf unable to perform his NIGHT function. Said argument has been repeated numerous times by other villagers during the DAY, and shall henceforth be referred to as logical conclusion.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Either my gut feeling about Legate being a wolf was right or the wolves are trying to trick us. I hope it is that Legate is just a wolf.

The villager known as Hakon uses his gut feel as evidence for Legate's guilt (said gut feeling has been indicated the previous day in this post. It is therefore important to determine if any plot has been made the previous DAY to give the appearance of substantiation to said feeling:

At the moment of the statement Legate has received four Guard votes from the following villagers: Brinniel, Nerwen, Shastanis Althreduin (henceforth known as Shasta), and Nogrod. There remain eight villagers to cast their Guard votes: Legate, wilwarin538 (henceforth known as wilwa), Pitchwife, alonariel, Thinlómien, Nessa Telrunya (henceforth known as Nessa), McCaber, and Nilpaurion Felagund (henceforth known as Nilp). However Nilp has stated his inability to continue participation in this post; furthermore alonariel and Nessa has not yet joined the discussion.

The possibility of a set-up exists but cannot be reasonable proven.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Suspicious
Legate: he made sense for the most part yesterDay, though there were inconsistencies here and there. The fact that there was only one kill last Night does point towards him, I doubt the wolves would have given up a second kill purely to set him up, doesn't seem at all worth it for them to do that. Pretty sure I'm gonna vote him.

Logical conclusion.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

If they had killed two last NIGHT, we would have had two leads to follow, plus Legate's innocence would have been proven.

The single kill is shocking, yes, but not without merit for them.

The writer refrains from analysing his own posts, and leaves it to the village to generate their own analysis from said posts.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

[ I]t does the wolves no good whatever to miss a kill in order to frame an innocent– unless one of the pack was in danger. If Legate's not a wolf, Wilwa might well be.

Logical conclusion, although considers the possibility of single-kill NIGHTs for framing up an innocent.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I think it would be more likely that the wolves would want to capitalize on the extreme luck re: the Kitanna lynch by using two kills rather than giving up one and framing Legate (can they even do that? Mod?) in my opinion.

Logical conclusion.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

So either Legate is a wolf or he's been framed, as others have already stated. Lynching him, there's the risk that we could be falling into a wolf trap...but then again, I think it could be even riskier to let him live if he is a wolf. I'd hate to have a wolf in our grasp, then just let him slip through. That's sort of how we lost last game. I can't really see why the wolves wouldn't want to take advantage of having two kills. Wouldn't they want to maximize the number of deaths while they can?

Logical conclusion.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Whoa. I wasn't expecting that. I wasn't that suspicious about Leggie yesterDay, but I've been thinking and really can't come up with any sensible reason for the wolves to let pass a Night kill for the sake of framing Legate. Sure, they'd like seeing an innocent lynched, but it just doesn't make sense that they give up their other Night kill for that. Therefore I'll probably vote Legate toDay. It's simply much more evidence against him than there is against anyone else, and if we let him live and he turned out to be a baddie I'd drown myself in a bucket.

Logical conclusion.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Though Legate does bring some vaild points, is there any way to be sure of him while leaving him alive?

The villager known as Inziladun indicates the impossibility of determining the truth behind the single-kill NIGHT without the death of Legate. Said argument has been repeated numerous times by other villagers during the DAY, and shall henceforth be referred to as Legate as test case.

Originally Posted by Nienna

Legate I believe you will be our case study. If we lynch you (as I believe we should) and you turn out innocent then we know we cannot trust the guarding results. We would then obviously not keep lynching those people who we have guarded and resort back to lynching those with suspicious voting, actions, etc.

Legate as test case.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

You say it looks easy, I think it looks too clean. Pitch brings up the niche in the rules, Legate and McCaber yesterday say the Night Guard could be used to frame an innocent. Now Legate is spiritly arguing he is being framed.

I will agree with Inzil that it's been an admirable defense, but that doesn't take away from the fact that the "framing defense" is one of the weakest. Think you're that important to the wolves, eh?

[ . . . ]

Now Legate is arguing he is being framed as an easy lynch, after setting up for the apparently "solid" defense the previous day. I say apparently solid, because shouting a "wolf set up conspiracy against me" is in fact...weak and the only reason Legate would use such a weak defense is because it's the only one he's got left after one wolf kill last night.

During the previous DAY Legate indicated the possibility of using the Guard vote as a way to catch a possible Werewolf in this post, and further considered the possibility of Werewolves framing an innocent guarded during the Night in this post. The villager known as Boromir88 (henceforth referred to as Boro) considers the possibility of a Werewolf Legate setting up his own defence in case the events that had indeed transpired should come to pass.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Somehow I think I was pretty suspicious of you and even made some points for it - and consequently wished to see what would happen if you were actually Night-guarded... and voilá, there was just one kill!

And anyway. It feels bad to lynch someone just because "we need to find it out" but that's exactly what I feel with you Legate. You're great to play with and looking at your defence one is once again affirming that you have the brains to make a difference, but now there is just too much at stake I'm afraid as getting the first wolf is of the essence for us. After that there will be only one kill per Night and everything will become a bit more less pressing. And sadly you seem to be our best bet now.

The villager known as Nogrod did indicate in this post and this post his suspicions towards Legate. The rest of the post, however, indicates Legate as test case. As is with the statement of Hakon, it is important to determine if any plot has been made the previous DAY to give the appearance of substantiation to said suspicion:

Nogrod has stated his intention to join a Guard Legate bandwaggon in the first post aforementioned. At the moment of the statement Legate has received two Guard votes from the following villagers: Brinniel, and Nerwen. The writer has searched the archives of the discussion in order to find evidence for the formation of such a bandwaggon, and found the following:

• Mnemosyne indicating her intention to vote Boro, Nogrod, or Legate to be subject to the Night Guard in this post; however she ends up voting for Boromir in this post, before the time of Nogrod's statement.
  
  
• The villager known as Pitchwife indicating his intention to vote Boro, Mnemosyne, and Nogrod to be subject to the Night Guard in this post. He includes Legate in his list with reservation that he is not fully convinced of his innocence. He ends up voting for Boro in this post, after the time of Nogrod's statement.

The writer has therefore detected no clear indication of a Guard Legate bandwaggon previous to Nogrod's statement. However the effect of such a statement on the realisation of such a bandwaggon is unknowable at this time; it is possible to speculate that there may indeed be multiple Werewolves in the Guard Legate bandwaggon to give substantiation to Nogrod's statements. Whether such has been done with Nogrod's complicity or without it is unknowable at this time.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I'm truly puzzled about Legate at the moment. As I said before, I found his #153 yesterday looking more innocentish than some of those before, and his arguments toDay are well reasoned, even if they happen to be in his own defense. There remains the one kill last Night when he was guarded. I can see the possibility of the wolves framing him - with the Seer dead, they may think they could afford losing one kill; and if he's innocent, he's attracting so much suspicion right now, detracting it from the wolves themselves, that they would be in no hurry to see him killed or lynched.
But that's all maybe; one way or another, we have to find out the truth. Suppose we Guard him one more night, would the wolves again be content with one kill?
That method would become useless, of course, if we happen to have the unbelievable luck of lynching a wolf toDay (instead of our Ranger or Hunter, or a plain ordo). It might be safer to lynch him toDay and lament him toMorrow, if he turns out to be innocent.

Pitchwife considers the possibility of an innocent Legate being framed, however ends with Legate as test case.

Originally Posted by McCaber

I cannot in good conscience vote Legate after I made a point yesterDay on what to do in this exact circumstance. So this right now is more of a look of suspicion than anything else:

++ Inziladun [highlight edited to avoid confusion with a real vote --ed.]

The villager known as McCaber indicated the possibility of a single-kill NIGHT to set up an innocent villager under Guard in this post.

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

My dear people, I sincerely apologize for my prolonged absence! A commission for quite the intricate dress called upon my time.

It seems Legate is widely suspected. It's a valid point, that this is indeed a death that would shed some much needed light.

++Legate [highlight edited to avoid confusion with a real vote --ed.]

This is only post so far of the villager known as Nessa. The writer sympathises with the interference of 'real life' with participation in the game, and hopes to hear more from her.

Section 3: Conclusions

It is impossible to draw a hidden intention from the stated intentions of the living villagers of Upper Downsbury due to the repetition of the stated intentions of the aforementioned villagers, mainly the logical conclusion and the Legate as test case. There have been some anomalies detected in some of the villagers; unfortunately such anomalies are beyond the scope of this paper and will be addressed at a future date.

Some conclusions about certain villagers drawn from the analysis is as follows:

• Despite complicity in the death of Legate, Boro's innocence can reasonably be proven by the case the latter has made regarding the former.
• It can be construed that Nogrod, and to a lesser extent, Hakon, have used the events of the first DAY to substantiate their suspicions and strengthen their suspicions against Legate. However the writer evaluates the possibility as unlikely, such being beyond the control of the two aforementioned, save by the possibility of some of those who voted to subject Legate to the Night Guard being Werewolves and fellows to either of the two aforementioned. The writer would like to add his evaluation that Hakon may have been the first and only subject of the dreams of the Seer Kitanna.
• McCaber, having foreseen the possibility of the use of the single-kill NIGHT to frame an innocent villager up, eschews voting for Legate for reasons of conscience. The meaning of such a statement is impossible to ascertain at this moment.

Appendix

• Gifts and Curses: read the bloody rules.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Phew.

Right, you got your dates horribly screwed up, but whatever. It's DAY 1 and DAY 2, for crying out loud.

Adam, you're not in this game.

So sue me.

I shall, soon as I get a large enough needle.

Anyway, the only person I can trust in this village right now is Boro, so:

++Boromir88

The 'anomalies detected in some of the villagers' that I mentioned in my conclusion is mainly Inziladun and his posting. Having never played with him before, I do not know his playing style, therefore I do not have a basis for comparison. But reading them it seems he's at the edge of the crowd surrounding Legate, not really supporting them, but not being indifferent to it either. It seems he voted for Inziladun because he's dead, anyway (q.v.), which is, of course, how a Werewolf would have treated someone they set up. Add to that my unalleviated suspicion from the previous DAY, he'll be the recipient of my vote again toDAY.

++Inziladun

How come you didn't use those Latin abbreviations in your travesty of a white paper?

Oh, do be quiet. I'm tired, and I had to skip lunch for that. Be back the next DAY, Eru willing.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

It seems he voted for Inziladun because he's dead, anyway.

I believe you mean, "he voted for Legate".

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

The writer would like to add his evaluation that Hakon may have been the first and only subject of the dreams of the Seer Kitanna.

Why, though?

While, I'm here, good people, I'd like to share with you some of my experiences in other werewolf-plagued villages in which I have sojourned. In some of these the honest folk of the village were sore puzzled as to why the evil ones had acted as they did (killing one person rather than another, and so forth). But among them would be the disguised werewolves, and at times these fiends would actually let slip the real reason for the kill. Which makes me wonder rather about Inziladun, and to a lesser extent Wilwa and Hakon. (I suppose I should add Nilp to the list, though he hasn't given me any other reason to suspect him.)

Of course, we could always try placating the wolves instead...

*strums lute*

"Grey is the colour
Of my true love's hair.
His fangs are like some daggers fair.
The sweetest... er.... snarl and the gentlest paws
I love the way he snaps his jaws–"

No, I don't think that's going to work, somehow.

EDIT:fixed typo.

[Pitchwife]

Oh what a mess! Our late Lommy was right - we are a silly bunch of lemmings!
Unfortunately, I don't think we'll gain many clues from yesterDay's Legate bandwagon per se, since most of the village (with a few honorable exceptions) was involved, as has been said. In the meantime, it would be worthwile to think about the wolves' motives for the kills of the last two Nights, so far as it hasn't been done yet.
I'll start with Mnemo. She was a very active villager on Day 1 and argued her points very well, which is a reason to take her out in itself, as she certainly would have gone on being helpful, if allowed to survive. Furthermore, she suggested The Plan, which, if put into action, would have saved our Seer and meant serious danger for the wolves. I'm quite certain this was the main motive for her killing.
Naturally, her death confirmed her and her motives in suggesting The Plan as innocent. What would that accomplish for the wolves? Obviously, it would throw an innocent light on those who had supported her (probably including some wolves), and a more dubious one on her opponents. (The Plan itself, of course, was void at the time, with the Seer dead.)
Those who cautioned against The Plan (at least initially) were Legate, Inzil, Sally, Greenie, Lommy, Nienna, Nerwen and Kit; among these, Legate was the most vocal and most elaborate in his criticism, which earned him some suspicion and was a main reason for him to end up Guarded. This leads me to assume that both forgoing one kill and the choice of the actual kill were part of the plan to frame Legate (and possibly others after him).
I'll continue with Lommy soon; for now, I only suspect the reasons may have been similar in both cases - which makes me somewhat cautious against concentrating too heavily on Inzil.

P.S. Nilp, I'm really impressed with your work both yesterDay and toDay; seems we have an idiot savant for our village fool!

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Oh what a mess! Our late Lommy was right - we are a silly bunch of lemmings!

Not really. We did need to see if the wolves were actually willing to pass up a kill in order to frame someone/create uncertainty/whatever.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I'll start with Mnemo. She was a very active villager on Day 1 and argued her points very well, which is a reason to take her out in itself, as she certainly would have gone on being helpful, if allowed to survive. Furthermore, she suggested The Plan, which, if put into action, would have saved our Seer and meant serious danger for the wolves. I'm quite certain this was the main motive for her killing.
Naturally, her death confirmed her and her motives in suggesting The Plan as innocent. What would that accomplish for the wolves? Obviously, it would throw an innocent light on those who had supported her (probably including some wolves), and a more dubious one on her opponents. (The Plan itself, of course, was void at the time, with the Seer dead.)

I agree it's about time we looked closer at the kills that did happen– but that's a rather complicated theory, Pitchy. It requires the wolves to have assumed that we'd assume they'd take a totally pointless revenge on Mnemo. (Back to the "newbie wolves" theory?)

Still, it is surprising they didn't leave her alive and try to frame her– "Look how she drew the Seer out! Look how she voted Wilwa for no reason!"

–This brings me to the other significant thing Mnemo did on Day One: she voted Wilwa because of a "crack theory" which she declined to explain at the time. No doubt she would have done so on Day Two had she survived the Night. This makes me think the kill-choice may point either to Wilwa, or to an attempt to frame her.

EDIT:word left out.

[Pitchwife]

OK, as long as nobody else is talking, here are my thoughts on Lommy's death.
Apart from being against The Plan on Day 1, she heavily defended Legate on Day 2 and voted for Zil, the only other candidate who got any votes. Again, her confirmed innocence also confirms she had good motives in doing so. If there is a wolf among the Zil voters, Lommy's death would make them look better. On the other hand, if Zil is a wolf, what would the pack accomplish by confirming one of his voters as innocent? Nothing I can see. This looks suspiciously like a plan to frame Inzil next.

This is assuming that we deal with a cunning pack acting really deviously, instead of just going "She voted one of us, so we kill her for it", which would be just too blatantly transparent. I'm pretty confident that we have at least one strategic mastermind among the wolves.

Nogrod would certainly be a candidate for such a role, but I'm very much against lynching him based on the outcome of his being Guarded. The whole idea of using the NG as a test of innocence, brought up by myself with some help from Sally and Nog (and wisely cautioned against by McCaber and the late Legate himself), has backfired really abominably, so let's by any means not base any more lynchings on this!
What's interesting is that Nog's prime suspects up to now were Legate and Lommy, both now known innocents. If he was a wolf, he'd certainly not confirm somebody he suspected publicly as innocent by killing her, thus painting himself suspicious. On the other hand, her killing may be a wolvish attempt to frame Nog, rather than (or in addition to) Inzil.

So I'm inclined to think both Nog and Zil rather innocent at the moment, and I'm also inclined to look for the majority of our wolves among

• the supporters of The Plan and
• the Legate bandwagon.

In other words, they're safely hiding in a huge crowd. This won't be easy.

(x-ed with Nerwen: good point about wilwa.)

[Pitchwife]

Nerwen, I don't quite get it - on the one hand my theory is rather complicated, on the other hand it requires a newbie pack??

Thanks for reminding me of Mnemo's wilwa vote, which I had neglected. wilwa certainly needs a close look, especially as Legate also voted her on Day 1. She was rather quick to latch on to Mnemo's suggestion on Day 1, and also argued very much for lynching Legate on Day 2.
Makes me wonder about Nilp's motives for voting to Guard her on Day 1, especially as he was among the Zil-voters yesterDay (see my above on that).

[Nienna]

I cannot stay long as I am helping with the furniture acquiring but I'd like to throw a few thoughts in.

McCaber is worrying me a little at the moment as are Zil (nothing new really), and Nilp. I can't really place my finger on what what is worrying me about Nilp though I believe he bears closer watching. Nog also seems to be acting much different than I've seen him play before. I believe I have only seen him as an innocent so that worries me a little bit.

I agree with what's been said that we cannot use the NG thing as a main reason for lynching but this does not mean that Nog is innocent either.

When I get back later I will look at voting things.

[Nogrod]

Looking at the wolves' picks I do find one thing in common with Mnemo and Lommy. Namely they both made a more or less powerful case had we followed them we would be much better off. So they maybe thinking "if they are able to bring that good ideas forwards now they may be able to excel also later on" and thence silenced them.

Like spreading terror around: speak wisely and you're dead...


On another note. I'm afraid we're approaching some really hard decisions.

We have an urgent mission which is to get the first wolf so as to remove the threat of two Night-kills from over our heads asap. Was it not for that, I would start now a real campaign for checking out our more quieter fellows rather now than later when it becomes next to impossible to do it.

But this situation just highlights the problem with the "submarines". We have four people with posts from zero to six thus far. How do you differentiate between them? How do you make a judgement about one being groundedly more suspicious than the other? And if they continue like that the situation will never change and it will always be a hit in the dark just hoping for the best - and the wolves rarely kill them as they can be a kind of "dead load" we can't be decide anything about but are not helping us either...

Because of that, I usually suggest we try our luck with those rather earlier than later in the game, but sadly I'm afraid we do not have that luxury this time with the double-kill sword hanging on top of us.

So we just have to succeed toDay.

I'll get into rereading the thread and it may take time. Hopefully it pays off even a little.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

If there is a wolf among the Zil voters, Lommy's death would make them look better. On the other hand, if Zil is a wolf, what would the pack accomplish by confirming one of his voters as innocent? Nothing I can see. This looks suspiciously like a plan to frame Inzil next.

This is assuming that we deal with a cunning pack acting really deviously, instead of just going "She voted one of us, so we kill her for it", which would be just too blatantly transparent.

Ah, but from the point of view of this travel-worn bard, it's so transparent that the village would probably not believe an entire pack would do something that obvious– and the wolves should know this. Makes me wonder if it could be a double-bluff. (Alternatively, the wolves really are playing dumb.)

Contrast this to my argument on the Mnemo kill. In that case, Mnemo had a theory about Wilwa's guilt which she had yet to reveal. That gives a Wolfwarin a real motive for killing her. By the same token, it gives the wolves a good chance to frame an innocent Wilwa. (As I recall, no-one seemed to be following up on it yesterDay, however.)

I wonder why Mnemo acted as she did? Saying, "I've got this theory about why X is a wolf, see you tomorrow," is pretty much the definition of "asking for it". You'd think the wolves would be afraid she was the Hunter. I'd almost say that clears Wilwa– except that your friendly travelling minstrel once voyaged on a ship whose crew thought wolves would never risk killing a Hunter who suspected them. The results were not pretty.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

What's interesting is that Nog's prime suspects up to now were Legate and Lommy, both now known innocents. If he was a wolf, he'd certainly not confirm somebody he suspected publicly as innocent by killing her, thus painting himself suspicious.

That's what you think. (I'm not saying it's evidence of his guilt, you understand, but I don't think it tells us anything either way.)

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Nerwen, I don't quite get it - on the one hand my theory is rather complicated, on the other hand it requires a newbie pack??

I didn't say it requires a newbie pack (when does that ever happen?) just that it would be an odd move for anyone else (unless, as Wilwa suggests, they're trying to look inexperienced). By "complicated" I meant the double-assumption aspect.

EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.

[Nogrod]

Even if Eönwë has posted this is the admin thread I think we should actually understand this here.

Originally Posted by ModGod

If alonariel does not vote toDay, she will be modfired. As stated in the rules, this means that the wolves will only get one kill toNight. Logically, this would mean that whether the person who is guarded toNight is a wolf or not, they will still get their kill (there will be 2-3 left).

So are you saying that Alonariel is a wolf???

[Boromir88]

Very short day for me today again...too much on my platter at the moment, but I will say...

Nogrod, just because there was only one kill again last night, doesn't mean you are now automatically innocent. That one kill still makes you look suspicious in my eyes, the difference is now we know not to lynch someone based on those reasons alone. I'll be watching and waiting for your slip, be afraid, be very afraid.

I wonder if I can read through before I have to leave?

Oh and this is going to be a complete flip-flop from what I said about Nogrod, but I think it would be wise to check the Nogrod guard votes from yesterday. There was a pretty good wagon there and if the wolves were looking to set him up, as they did Legate, maybe check the Legate guard votes from Day 1? That's all I got to offer right now, my apologies for bumming around.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So are you saying that Alonariel is a wolf???

No, he's not - why would he tell us? He's merely saying alona will be modfired whether she's a wolf or not (i.e. he's not making any Teflon wolf exceptions to the modfire rule). The Rules state that if somebody is modfired, the wolves will get only one kill that Night, even if there would have been two kills otherwise. He's trying to make it fair for us, so we won't lose three innocents at once, if an innocent is modifred. And if alona is modfired as a wolf and we Guard another wolf, there will still be one kill (by the remaining wolves).

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Even if Eönwë has posted this is the admin thread I think we should actually understand this here.

So are you saying that Alonariel is a wolf???

Well, I can't think of anything else it could mean, can you?

I was just going to say, it would be a great joke if the pack consisted of Alona, Hakon, Nessa and Pitchwife, and what we've been seeing as some impenetrable masterplan is just the result of them being fairly inexperienced.

EDIT: X'd with Boro and Pitchwife.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

The Rules state that if somebody is modfired, the wolves will get only one kill that Night, even if there would have been two kills otherwise. He's trying to make it fair for us, so we won't lose three innocents at once, if an innocent is modifred.

Thanks, Pitchy, I missed that.

Okay, Steve's out of the Most Careless Mod stakes.

[Nogrod]

But how do you explain this (the bolding especially)?

Originally Posted by the Mod

this would mean that whether the person who is guarded toNight is a wolf or not, they will still get their kill (there will be 2-3 left).

[Nogrod]

I mean there is no other way for there being only two wolves left the next Night but that Alona is one and we lynch another toDay... we can't lynch two wolves now can we?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But how do you explain this (the bolding especially)?

"this would mean that whether the person who is guarded toNight is a wolf or not, they will still get their kill (there will be 2-3 left)."

Oh, wait, maybe Steve's back in the stakes after all. Dear me.

EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.

[Nerwen]

Maybe he means "2-3 wolves apart from the guarded wolf".

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Maybe he means "2-3 wolves apart from the guarded wolf".

Okay, that might make sense... but why - well anyway why - to make that comment as we all know that even a lonely wolf can kill unless DG'd?

Odd, to put it mildly...

[Boromir88]

Why are we wasting time on debating this? Alona will be killed at the end of the day the wolves will have one kill. Once we find alona's role then we may learn something from it.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I was just going to say, it would be a great joke if the pack consisted of Alona, Hakon, Nessa and Pitchwife, and what we've been seeing as some impenetrable masterplan is just the result of them being fairly inexperienced.

That would be very funny indeed - even more if we actually managed to win that way against you veterans! (And NO, that was NOT a confession, of course!)

Nog, isn't it obvious? If alona is a wolf, and is modfired, and we Guard or lynch a wolf, there will be 2 wolves left. If alona is innocent and modfired, and we Guard or lynch a wolf, 3 wolves left. So whatever alona's role, when she's modfired there will be 2-3 wolves left (unless she's innocent and we don't Guard or lynch a wolf -> 4 wolves left, but according to the Rules only one kill). What happened to your logic?

(x-ed with several Nerwensand Nogrods , and Boro.)

[wilwarin538]

Nilp, that was epic.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Looking at the wolves' picks I do find one thing in common with Mnemo and Lommy. Namely they both made a more or less powerful case had we followed them we would be much better off. So they maybe thinking "if they are able to bring that good ideas forwards now they may be able to excel also later on" and thence silenced them.

This seems very likely.

So I am awake, in a better mood and with a clearer head and should be around randomly throughout the day.

So at first when I saw that 4 people had voted for Inzil yesterday I thought "wow, they have to be guilty", just cause I thought it was crazy, then later I was like "k, maybe not so much, that's too bold of a move for a wolf". Which is where I am still sitting now. For a wolf to be among only 4 people to not vote for someone, and now for it to just be down to 2 of them (Nilp and McC), I'm leaning towards them being innocent. I think the wolves would have preferred to hide among the Legate voters. Though out of the two if one did end up being a wolf, I'd lean more towards McC, but not much.

Inzil, still worries me. Like Nilp said he was kinda like "yes of course it's a good idea to lynch Legate, but is there anyway to be absolutely sure first? " Almost like he wanted to be on the same side as everyone, but when Legate would turn out innocent he didn't want to look like he had completely agreed with the plan. That's how I interpret the whole thing anyway. It's similar to his vote for Kit Day 1 where he latched on to the obvious beginning of a bandwaggon.

Nogrod feels innocent to me still, like he has since the beginning. This whole thing makes me think he'll probably end up guilty and we'll all be kicking ourselves later, but right now I can't see any good reason to lynch him, other then the NG. Which we know isn't really the best method for proving someone's guilt. Therefore I believe we should just leave Nog alone for now, keep him maybe as a possible lynch choice later on in the game.

We have to get a wolf today, cause this NG thing is just causing so much confussion. I'm not personally scared of the double kill thing, because the wolves haven't used it yet, and I'd be surprised if they did all of a sudden, they seem to enjoy causing confusion and don't seem to like the idea of providing us with known innocents. But of course they're unpredictable so who knows what'll happen.

I'll be back a bit later, gots some cleaning to do...

x'ed with Boro and Pitch

[Nogrod]

On a different issue...

Originally Posted by Boro

I think it would be wise to check the Nogrod guard votes from yesterday. There was a pretty good wagon there and if the wolves were looking to set him up, as they did Legate, maybe check the Legate guard votes from Day 1?

Thanks Boro! I started reading the thread from the beginning but it felt totally unfocused and futile in a way; I mean too many things to focus on and surely no one wishes to read (or make) a short interpretation about all that has happened. But I had forgotten that no one had done that and it would be interesting indeed. As I said yesterDay already the sudden bandwagon of guarding me felt quite creepy. So let's see whether there are common denominators there with the two NG-wagons as it seems the wolves wished to frame those protected with their one kill tactics. We all know that with Legate and I do know it from my part as well.

Originally Posted by Boro

Why are we wasting time on debating this? Alona will be killed at the end of the day the wolves will have one kill. Once we find alona's role then we may learn something from it.

I don't see it as a waste of time. If it is true that Alona is a wolf my target for toDay changes radically. With one wolf bagged and the double-kill threat lifted I'd focus heavily on the quieter ones because we could then afford it at this stage of the game. If it's not true, we'd need to focus on those we can actually say something based on actual words and deeds which means our more active players, which is always so stupid because it gives certain people free-rides to make their mischiefs in the end...

So to me at least this is important.

But I won't be arguing about it the next hours as I have work to do eg. looking back at the NG-wagons.

[Nogrod]

Okay, I'll end this speculation from my part right here... just after this

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Nog, isn't it obvious? If alona is a wolf, and is modfired, and we Guard or lynch a wolf, there will be 2 wolves left. If alona is innocent and modfired, and we Guard or lynch a wolf, 3 wolves left. So whatever alona's role, when she's modfired there will be 2-3 wolves left (unless she's innocent and we don't Guard or lynch a wolf -> 4 wolves left, but according to the Rules only one kill). What happened to your logic?

See the bolding? Eönwë didn't give the option of there being 4 left but said there would be 2-3 left. That's what bothers me there.

Okay, maybe it was meant to be there was 2-3 wolves "free to act" during the Night... But just saying x wolves left brings different ideas to mind. And as even one wolf can kill during the Night so why make that declaration in the first place?

Okay, that's it for me now...

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So to me at least this is important.

Fair enough, for me I don't see the purpose because Eonwe has repeatedly said he's not giving any mod hints, maybe it was a slip, but why blow it up to that extent? Did you really expect something like "Yep, you got me, I made a slip."

Oh well, I will ask you as now I do think it's relevant, how would knowing alona's role now change who it is you go after? Alona hasn't said anything.

NG Votes for Legate (Day 1):

Brinn
Nerwen
Shasta
Nogrod
Lommy
wilwa

(Italics be the dead innocents)

NG Votes for Nogrod (Day 2):

Greenie
Pitch
McCaber
wilwa
Nessa
Inzil
Hakon

That's interesting, the only repeated name is wilwa. I would also like to point out from Pitch on down to Hakon was just pretty much a large guard Nogrod wagon. With Legate there really wasn't a wagon, it was pretty split between guarding me or Legate.

Not sure if that says anything, but I think those who specifically said they were guarding Legate to figure out whether he was a wolf look pretty suspicious (who they are I can't tell you off the top of my head, I'm actually going to have to go back and look...which means hopefully it will come later).

I'm also not liking how wilwa's name keeps popping up in the middle of shady activity, like the Day 1 stuff between her and Mnemo, and Mnemo is now dead. Now her name being the only repeated one in the two NG votes. Or maybe that just means we have wolves who are trying to distance themselves from eachother and spread out? hmmm

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Once we find alona's role then we may learn something from it.

What may we learn from finding out the role of somebody who hasn't played at all, and whose being modfired, whatever her role, won't affect the number of kills toNight? I'm puzzled.

When analysing the Guard bandwagons, it's well to think about possible set-ups, but let's not forget that at least some people will have used their Guard votes as they were originally meant to be used, i.e. to keep alive those we think innocent, while others used the Guard as a test and some probably voted with both aspects in mind (I know I did).

For now, I've got to eat and then work on another two tombstones. See you later.

P.S. Have I mentioned yet that it feels really good to be alive on Day 3 for a change? Wonder how long that'll last...

[Boromir88]

Ahh, and I'll be away until 2 or 3-ish my time, so there best be some real good analysis that I can come back to.

And ye wolves were probably most unwise to leave me alive this long ha, I gave you the chance to kill me early when I was exhausted. Now the fire's been lit and it will be most difficult to lynch me, you'd be sure to regret it because it would be your end.

[wilwarin538]

Hmm.. the thing Eonwe said about Alona is a bit weird, I don't completely understand what's happening there. But I agree with Boro, it'll be easier to talk about this once it's actually happened, if she's just an innocent then it doesn't really mean anything, if she's a wolf well then there we go.

I have to run off again for a bit, in a few hours I should be able to sit down and contribute more.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Oh well, I will ask you as now I do think it's relevant, how would knowing alona's role now change who it is you go after? Alona hasn't said anything.

I guess I answered that already but maybe I need to do it again.

It's not about Alona, it's about there not being four wolves any more and thence no threat of double-kills. That being the case I'd suggest we'd turn more to the quieter ones for lynches as we can afford it now better than later (we can't just leave them be quiet the whole game and only hope they will be on our side) - but with the chance of double-kills on us we probably need to search from the more vocal people as we need to get one wolf down and quick and with the submarines it's throwing a dice.

The problem being that those more vocal could help us (or can be caught more easily) later unlike those who just shut up.


I need to go and make some dinner etc. but here's a few things that started to bother me as I went reading things over Day1 & 2.

Have we forgotten the fact that Kit voted for Brinn with “bad reasons”. Could that be the reason of her downfall on Day1? Have we asked ourselves of the possibility that she had dreamt of Brinn on N1? It’s interesting she got killed and turned out the seer… so she was right in there?

Brinn would be one of the top candidates for dreaming and making such a vote (in a sense grounded but then again not) would be a seerish way of leaving a hint.

Anyway our discussion of the Kit-voters died down pretty soon as everyone (me included) focused on Legate.

I mean to me it was odd Kit was lynched. Her reasons for voting were not the best ones but not the worst either. So how come she ended up at the gallows? If she was right with Brinn there would have been people eager to send her there...


Also I was actually thinking much better of Wilwa re-reading Day1 but looking at Boro's list on the NG-votes makes me think it again.

Sally makes me worried as well...


I'll try to elaborate a bit later and hopefully have some more solid to bring forwards.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Not sure if that says anything, but I think those who specifically said they were guarding Legate to figure out whether he was a wolf look pretty suspicious (who they are I can't tell you off the top of my head, I'm actually going to have to go back and look...which means hopefully it will come later).

Make a distinction, though, between guarding to test and guarding to neutralise.

Anyway–

Lynch:

++Inziladun. It's sort of out of him and Wilwa for me at the moment.

I don't like having to vote early each Day, but DL comes at a really bad time for me. Please don't everyone just pile on my vote this time! There are a good many other people that need looking at, notably Sally, Nilp and the ones who have hardly been around– Nessa, Brinniel etc.

Guard:

++Boro.

Because he's looked quite good so far, and might be a target.

EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.