A "what if" military scenario -LOTR

[bilbobaggins764]

A "what if" scenario has been on my mind today and is as follows

-Gollum's deceitful yet brilliant plan to use Shelob to ambush and kill Frodo and Sam works. He regains the One Ring and successfully hides for years, maybe decades or more, somewhere in Middle Earth with his precious.

-The battle of the black gate never happens. Either the Free People get word that Frodo lost the Ring, or they decide to play a more cautious or military-wise action and choose not to march on the Black Gate.

-Aragorn is made king of Gondor and Arnor with the death of Denthor

Despite the setbacks, Mordor still is the most powerful nation in Middle-earth. Sauron still has over 70,000 orcs in Mordor, a powerful nearby ally in the Haradrim, and the Easterlings. In the books, after the defeat in the South, Sauron initially pulled his forces back behind the black gate, thus seeming to recuperate and restrategize. But I am sure he would continue his tried-and-tested strategy of wearing down Gondor.

If Sauron is to remain on the offensive, I think he has two options. The first is an all-out attack once more on Gondor. Since the Haradrim and Easterling are already mustered and ready for war in Mordor, he utilizes them along with his troops to take out his main rival; he stays the course. But perhaps this time, he "pins in" troops in Minas Tirith and sends his most significant force to conquer the rest of Gondor, along with the Haradrim and Easterlings. Rohan remains by Gondor's side, and it leads to a very long, costly, bloody war in the South. But I do not think it goes this route.

Instead, Sauron sends the Haradrim troops back to their homelands or on ships to conduct a war all along the Gondrian coast as they had before. He keeps most of his troops within Mordor and threatens Minas Tirith enough to keep Gondor from using its full force to fight off the Haradrim and/or invade his ally. While Gondor is busy, he expands his success in the North. After the Easterlings/Mordor army defeated the combined forces of the kingdom of Dale and the dwarves of Erebor (killing Kings Dáin Ironfoot and Brand of Dale) the remaining dwarves and men retreated to Erebor. The siege ended when the Easterlings lost hope after Sauron was defeated, but in this scenario, they would remain strong since the ring was not destroyed. Sauron could send the Easterlings in the south and east to reinforce (with more troops from Mordor) to finish the job and not only recapture what the Kingdom of Dale was but Erebor and the Iron Hills.

Likewise, in the books, Dol Guldur is overthrown by an alliance between Mirkwood and Lorien only after Sauron is defeated. However, I think even if Sauron was not destroyed, they would have taken advantage of the victory in the South and Sauron at war elsewhere and still captured and destroyed Dol Guldur.

However, with the Haradrim keeping Gondor busy and not needing much in Mordor to protect it, I think he sends his most substantial army to bring Mirkwood and Lorein under his control. The elves would offer stiff resistance and thus keep Sauron busy enough that he would also be unable to wage war on Gondor or anywhere else for that matter. But victory would be up to him, and how much he would be willing to invest. I think he aims to conquer everything east of the mountains. The mouth of Sauron offered these terms to the men of the west at the black gate, indicating Sauron was not in the mood for immediate worldwide conquest after failing to capture Minas Tirith, “All lands east of the Anduin shall be Sauron’s for ever, solely. West of the Anduin as far as the Misty Mountains and the Gap of Rohan shall be tributary to Mordor,.”

I think Sauron transferred his eye to the North and invested enough to not only remove the dwarves from the North but also conquer the Mirkwood forest and Lorien. At this point, the elves are allied and "at war," but they are few in number. Adapted at fighting in the woods, and the power of Galadriel and her ring wreak havoc on Sauron's troops, but I think he does use a sizeable force of all the Eastlerings under ringwraiths, perhaps the mouth of Sauron along with trolls, to retake Mirkwood and Lorien. Meanwhile, he utilized the Haradrim to continue to keep the pressure up, wear down Gondor, and keep a sizable force within Mordor. He gets what he wants, east of the river, for now.

Free Peoples

On the opposite side, under a new king and after a great victory at the capital, Gondor will be full of morale and looking for action. Yet they know they only fought off just a section of the might of Sauron. Further, the Haradrim attacks along the coast prevent serious action. However, I could see Aragorn retaking both sides of Osgiliath. This will show the strength of the resolve on Gondor and keep them safe while they repair the capital and outer wall. Osligith safe will protect engineers who repair and clear the dead. I am sure they will keep a much larger force at Minas Tirith than before. Still, due to their decentralized and feudal military and governance, most troops will remain along the coast and are needed to repulse the Haradrim.

I do not see Gondor even thinking of a major military invasion; they nearly survived the first attack with the help of Rohan. An attack on the Haradrim, even with Rohan, would leave the rest of Gondor vulnerable, and an attack on Mordor would lead to defeat and an easy conquest by the Haradrim and Mordor troops who come after. Yet this allows Sauron to look north. But not enough to pursue a significant invasion of Gondor, not yet especially knowing Rohan overcame Saruman and was more than willing to aid their allies.

With Aragorn as king, his authority in the north would not amount to much. I am sure it might help the Dunadain and Hobbits overthrow the ruffians and deal with rouge wildmen who refused the terms, but at most, I see them perhaps assisting the dwarves with the orcs in the misty mountains. Few, if any, would actually come to Gondor or help.

Angry but few in number, I think the dwarves, from the blue hills to the iron hills, and now displaced from the North all attempt to meet in Moria. Refugees meet and retake it now that the balrog is gone. Returning to their greatest realm, they come together as they attempted recently, or perhaps Gundabad where the dwarves were first awakened. They "meet in the middle" and go to war with the orcs of the misty mountains.

I think the Silvan elves end up in the refuge of Rivendell or the gray havens. The high elves look to leave or avoid Middle Earth's troubles. Elves now reside only west of the misty mountains dwarves within.

The big question is what King Eomer and Rohan do. They proved their willingness to aid Gondor in need, but if Gondor has retaken Osgiliath and Mordor is no longer an immediate threat, I think they return home, do their repairs, and recoup. With Isengard and the wildmen no longer a threat, the ents nearby as powerful allies, I think over time, Rohan becomes more powerful than Gondor, who is being slowly drained. Perhaps they assist the dwarves and men of the north with conquering the misty mountains? However, given their preference for staying with men and aiding Gondor and watching their realm, and with its feudal and localized politics and military, it seems that outside of aiding Gondor, they are unlikely to choose aggression when Mordor cannot be conquered by doing so.

Conclusion

I think there's an original balance shift where the Easterlings go full force in the north, assisted by Mordor, and conquer the dwarves, who relocate to the misty mountains along with the dwarves from the blue mountains. The Silvan elves are also defeated and relocate to Elvish refugees in the west. Gondor retakes Osgilith but remains in a war of attrition with Haradrim/Mordor. Sauron increases east of the mountains and the free people west. The mountain ranges provide a buffer and a lull in action. Warfare become localized skirmish, not worldwide.

I think somewhat of a stalemate ends with Aragorn leading a rejuvenated but ever depleting Gondor, who has Rohan to call upon, hence, no large-scale attack comes for a long time from Mordor (also casualties suffered by attacking dwarves and, more so, Galadriel/elves), and a stalemate ensues.

In the northwest north, men, elves, and dwarves quickly sweep away all opposition. With the balrog destroyed, I think the misty mountains succumb to the free people nearly entirely. But the shadow continues to grow more rapidly in Mordor, and it is only a matter of time before Sauron strikes Gondor once more. The elves are leaving, but Rohan is powerful, and the ents and eagles seem to provide valuable assistance. While I do believe Sauro would inevitably rule Middle-earth, I think it would not occur anytime soon.

Perhaps Gollum rises from hiding, loses the ring, or seeks to rule himself. It seems the ring might be the decided no matter what.

This could go many ways, what do you think?

[SoundingShores]

That's an interesting scenario! I hope it’s not too late to weigh in, I apologize if it is.

I think it's possible that Gollum would have gone into hiding with the Ring, and I'll get to that scenario in a bit. But to start by going off on a tangent, I wonder if we aren't meant to think that Gollum would have tried to claim the Ring and use it (its main power of domination, not the invisibility power). He used to be hiding with it, but he had gone through a rough time since then, and it seems he wanted revenge. He says to himself about Shelob: "And when we’ve got it safe, then She’ll know it, O yes, then we’ll pay Her back, my precious. Then we’ll pay everyone back!" It sounds like he wanted to use the Ring to get back at everyone (presumably Shelob, Sauron, Sam, Aragorn, Thranduil and his elves etc).

If he had tried this, or maybe even if he had just claimed the Ring without using it, I think it would've led to Sauron recovering it. In one of his letters (246), Tolkien wrote that if Gollum's redemption hadn't been interrupted, his love for Frodo would have enabled him to realize that he "could not use the Ring and had not the strength or stature to keep it in Sauron's despite." He also writes that Sauron would have swiftly reclaimed the Ring from Frodo if Frodo hadn't been attacked by Gollum (unless Frodo had enough sanity left to cast himself into the fire with the Ring).

So I think the most likely outcome would be that Sauron would take the Ring from Gollum.

Anyway, back to the scenario where Gollum disappears with the Ring.

I could be wrong but I always got the impression that a successful defense against Sauron without destroying the Ring wasn't possible, although some characters initially hoped that it would be. In the what-if scenario, nothing really happens that would improve the military situation compared to what existed in the book at the time of the Last Debate. The Rohirrim arriving, Aragorn coming on the ships, the Witch-king being defeated, winning the battle of Pelennor Fields, all this stuff happened in the book. But Gandalf still says that victory by arms isn't possible at this point, that’s why he advocates the "feint" idea (which is very risky and not that likely to succeed, so not something you'd argue for if you had other options). He says: "Victory cannot be achieved by arms, whether you sit here to endure siege after siege, or march out to be overwhelmed beyond the River." So he says that even a defensive posture couldn't save Gondor and he certainly doesn't recommend an offensive. Osgiliath used to be a large city and had been heavily fortified. I don't think it would've been possible to retake it while outnumbered 1:10 by the "defenders" (Sauron's forces).

I think without the destruction of the Ring, Sauron would have won in the North. The fate of the Gondorians (the ones who didn’t fall in battle) would have probably been the escape into the mountains scenario predicted by Beregond and Denethor, but they would’ve been hunted down eventually. I guess my impression is that what we see in LotR was meant to be this "all or nothing" situation where just prolonging the stalemate further wasn't possible anymore. I might be overlooking something though.

[Mithadan]

Focusing for a moment on the original post, if Gollum's plot to use Shelob to get the Ring succeeded, an immediate problem would arise. He would be on the borders of Mordor with the only options being to go forward into Sauron's realm, or retreat back towards Morgul Vale (with the Ring). Could he have resisted putting the Ring on (even if he didn't "claim it" as his own)? At this point, probably not. There is a very good chance that he might have been detected by Sauron or a Nazgul. If this happened, all of the war plans go out the window (temporarily). Tolkien actually discusses what would have happened if Gollum had not intervened at the Cracks of Doom and Frodo claimed the Ring and retained It. The same would happen if Gollum had secured the Ring in Cirith Ungol and been detected. All 9 Nazgul would come to him and either kill him (if he did not "claim" the Ring) or feign obeisance until Gollum could be brought before Sauron, at which point the Ring would be taken. If Gollum managed to evade the Nazgul somehow, all of Sauron's servants and armies would have been tasked with finding him. The war would be delayed only until Sauron recovered the Ring.

Let's speculate that Gollum either manages to take the Ring with Shelob's help or seizes it earlier, is not detected and slips away. Sauron's war would proceed as planned. Even if Gondor prevails on the Pelennor as it did in RoTK, this is a temporary setback. The next assault would be successful. Gondor and Rohan would fall. Erebor and Dale would be defeated. Lorien, which fought only a defensive war until the Ring was destroyed, would ultimately be defeated or its people would leave for the West. The same would happen to Thranduil's realm, Imladris and the remnant in Lindon and the Havens.

In short, Gandalf's arguments in the Council of Elrond would prove true. Unless the Ring is destroyed, there is no avenue for the West to prevail.

An interesting area for speculation (and this is all speculation) is whether Gollum would actually attempt to claim and wield the Ring. Clearly, he did not know what the Ring was or how to use it when he possessed it. However, by the time he joins Frodo and Sam, he had been captured by Sauron, and had a better understanding of the Ring, thus his internal dialogue about becoming "strong" and "Lord Gollum" or "Gollum the Great." Gollum was not strong enough to wield the Ring and this would likely only delay the inevitable.

[William Cloud Hicklin]

An interesting wargame scenario. There are I think some logistical concerns; the idea of Sauron sending his main force to march along the coast and occupy all of Gondor but Anorien has a serious problem with supply, Minas Tirth being an unreduced fortress that constantly threatens the tenuous connection via Osgiliath and the Causeway. However, if the Corsairs could take Pelargir, then Sauron could use that as his main supply base.

Marching north on Lorien, presumably crossing at the Undeeps and attacking across the Field of Celebrandt, also has major supply issues given a very active cavalry army in Calenardhon. I think I prefer the southern strategy.

Note that Sauron was in no way equipped to supply the 100-150,000 troops he had to besiege Minas Tirith; that was a quick-strike force intended to live off its plunder (and probably the dead). The whole success of that campaign hinged on Grond and the Witch-King taking out the Gate, fast, not an extended siege (also, the blocking force at Amon Din).