Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Do you really think a vote for Sally would be constructive, Agan? Perhaps we can technically "afford to lynch another quiet player", but that doesn't mean we should.

More constructive than she has been thus far. And just in case you don't remember, I've suspected her since day 1. (Although it's probably silly to phrase it this way because she hasn't posted since day 1.)

Almost half the players have 10 posts or less, and I'd much rather lynch a quiet one.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

This strikes me as slightly off - she seems to vote Volo for being weird, while she quite well knows he is more or less that every game whatever his role. It's rather like voting Lommy for being flip-floppy, Kath for missing Day 1, or Pitch for being agreeable.

I'm used to Volo being eccentric but I'm not used to anyone voting for a player just because she doesn't suspect a player they suspect.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Agan

I'm used to Volo being eccentric but I'm not used to anyone voting for a player just because she doesn't suspect a player they suspect.

Fair enough. Looking back, you did have a pretty sensible reason for suspecting Volo - the phrasing of your vote-post just made it look like you voted him for being weird.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Fair enough. Looking back, you did have a pretty sensible reason for suspecting Volo - the phrasing of your vote-post just made it look like you voted him for being weird.

To be honest, that would have served him right - after all, he voted for me for talking about the cobblers.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Agan

Almost half the players have 10 posts or less, and I'd much rather lynch a quiet one.

I agree, I mean there are only 3 hours left of the Day and there have been less than 40 posts (that's less than 2 posts an hour). That's lame, and if we get rid of the louder people then every day will get quieter.

So if we split the village up into 3 groups (now I'm not going off post count, I'm doing this in a fairly arbitrary way based on who stands out to me from all 3 Days, feel free to argue this) it sort of looks like this:


Loud
Agan
Inzil
Nerwen
Pitch
Shasta

Moderately Loud
Wilwa
Greenie
Lottie

Quiet
Eomer
Formendacil
Kath
Sally
The Elf-Warrior

So I kind of want to go for someone in that last group.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading.

[Inziladun]

I wanted to look at someone who hasn't been talked about much. Smilies removed.

Day 1

Originally Posted by Kath

*waves*

Posting to say that I am aware we've started (thanks oh great mod!) and that if deadline is 11pm GMT then I should, bar any unforeseen circumstances, be here at deadline.

While I'm away I request that no one tries to lynch Eomer or Form. It's been way too long since I played with them.

Intro post.

Originally Posted by Kath

Well thanks so much Eomer for that kind greeting. Let's all suspect him now for saying he was going to kill me and Form but then going after Agan! That's suspicious right?

Can someone throw a vote count at me? I have skimmed not read and that's going to stay the same really. So I'd like to know who's for the gallows and have a better look at them.

Ah and so I make no unfortunate errors ... Pitchwife - male or female?

Not much to say about that. The first part is apparently joking.

Originally Posted by Kath

Eomer - Agan
Glirdan - wilwa
Volo - Agan 2
sally - Agan 3
Greenie - Glirdan
wilwa - Glirdan 2

Thanks Agan, missed that as I went through. I added wilwa's vote on. Our Canadians are voting against each other. Interesting?

We know now Glirdy was Harry Goatleaf, but that says nothing about Wilwa's alignment.

Originally Posted by Kath

Well we apparently know the lynch choices for toDay then! So I'll go look at their posts and then vote.

Agan - suggests the person stunned reveals. Interesting idea, it would narrow down possibilities ... does it end up revealing Gifteds though and thus helping the wolves more? Basically saying just don't forget TBW in case it comes back to bite you later. Takes against Glirdan as well. Her and wilwa as buddies sounds unlikely given that they both suspect him. Suspects Nog for twisting her words or at least continuing to misunderstand them. Says 'trust me' waaaay too much.

Wilwa - saw the downsides of having the stunned person reveal. Says focusing on TBW distracts from the more immediate danger of wolves and cobblers. Seems to have pretty clear and thought through reasons against Agan's revealing plan. I thought she was looking pretty good but then she takes against Glirdan for no reason I can particularly see.

Glirdan - says focus on the wolves and cobblers and let the less obviously dangerous Gifted's sort themselves out. Makes sense to me though in these early Days we're as likely to get one of them as we are anything else! Adapts Agan's TBW outing plan to work for cobblers.

Right, well. To be honest none of them seem desperately suspicious! I'd be more tempted to go for wilwa because to be honest I can't see the reasoning behind Glirdan being suspicious. He's doing stream-of-consciousness posting but it doesn't seem particularly guilt-ridden.

So:

++WILWA

I noted before that Wilwa certainly didn't "take against Glirdan for no reason".

Day 2

Originally Posted by Kath

*waves at Nog from my little yellow submarine*

And I have to take back what I said yesterDay about wilwa's vote for Glirdan. I thought it was based on pretty much nothing other than feelings, but clearly she has much more of a gut-based grasp on Glirdan than I do!

Let's lynch Agan. It'll make everyone happy ... except Agan ... and then we can finish that argument!

Only joking. I was about to make a proper post but I've just been informed that dinner is ready. So I'll be back in a bit to actually say something (hopefully) useful.

Retracts her reasoning behind the vote for Wilwa (which I'd pointed out was wrong).

Originally Posted by Kath

Moi?!

Right, I'm going to wander through Day 2 now, have a look at what's been going on.

Ooh one thing though. There was some argument between Agan and .... someone. I want to say Nerwen but I can't remember. It was about not knowing the rules and that being a really guilty thing to do. Just wanted to put it out there that I disagree. These games with experimental roles are complicated. If even Boro is altering/clarifying the rules still then I don't think not being totally certain on them counts as particular grounds for suspicion. This might have been laid to rest already but I just suddenly remembered it.

I don't remember discussions of one not understanding rules making them suspicious. I'm not saying for certain that no one mentioned it, but this seems an odd thing for her to bring up here.

Originally Posted by Kath

Day 2:

Shasta: I actually love him for his first comment. Assumption 1: The wolves went after someone they thought was the Seer. And suggested Nog for being sure about Agan, while questioning this as Agan went after Nog. Bit of a non-thought maybe? Says not only the BW would pose as the Seer, other roles may well do it too. Says Inzil is defending Nog. Well, technically yes, but I think more what he's doing is arguing that other people should be looked at as well. Now I don't like the way Shasta leaps on this comment of Inzil's, but nor do I much like these attempts to 'out' the Seer by either of them. Assumption 2: The wolves attacked someone who would leave no trace. Mentioned by others already and yeah fair point.

wilwa: Says the wolves went for the Barrow Wight. Suggests we look at quiet players or look for Seer hints. Prefers the former as the latter will be harder. Given that there was no kill so there are no 'safe' players to look for Seer hints in I do think that the latter would also be a bit more dangerous for the Seer. Interesting idea of something to do with Shasta's throwaway comment. Good point that actually the BW isn't going to know anything really. Say Nog was the Ranger and the BW stunned him, unless it's made explicit in the narration that the Ranger's role was affected, the BW isn't going to be able to deduce that the Ranger must be Nog.

Nog: I'm ... not quite sure what he was arguing here. Seems to be saying that Shasta was totally wrong to suggest he might be Seer ... but that actually Shasta wasn't saying that, but rather that he (Nog) was the BW pretending to be the Seer so the Seer would waste a dream on him. Is that right? I got lost in this. Says it is in the opposite interests of the BW to attract Seer attention. Pushes the quiet players = evil theory as per usual! About half a Day after everyone else this time. I'm hating this 'code' - I can't remember what any of the letters stand for. Won't vote Greenie as she can't be here. Won't vote Agan because though he thinks she's a Cobbler he thinks she gets good discussion going. To be honest, if you think someone is evil I'd say go after them, but I suppose it's good reasoning.

Inzil: Don't get it. Why bring a comment on Volo in to suggest Nog was the Seer when the comment had no 'certainty' to it. Throws Eomer in as a possible Seer candidate for being 'certain' about Agan - fair point actually. Says that Glirdan voting wilwa means he didn't think her a wolf - I actually wouldn't bet on that. Where I argue with Inzil is the idea that Shasta was 'pushing' Nog as a suggestion. Actually, Shasta's suggestions about Nog were within the same post and then any other discussion was in answer to other people's comments on that post. So I wouldn't have said he was 'pushing' the idea. "Oh, I think potential Seers are a priority for wolves, certainly. But Shasta zeroing in on Nog the way he did to the apparent exclusion of all else is what struck me. " This I feel is inflammatory and unfair.

Lottie: Thinks quieter people or early voters would be more likely Night kills, suggesting Eomer, Form and Elfie (I like that shortening!). Well fair point. Says Eomer might be the BW but that we should leave the BW up to TB. In these early days it is more important to go wolf hunting, but as Shasta says talking about the BW does give TB more information to go on. Thinks Nog and Shasta innocent, thinks Eomer is the BW, thinks wilwa and Inzil are ok and is tempted to vote for Elfie for being quiet or Pitch after yesterDay. Votes Elfie because Pitch hasn't spoken - I like that, giving someone a chance to defend themselves.

Nerwen: Says if Nog were the Wight then Agan would be a cobbler not a wolf anyway. Um, why? Says Eomer doesn't count as a no-trace kill. I'm glad she was as confused by Nog as I was. Votes Agan for overplaying the Cobbler thing, being overly defensive and going after the BW too much.

Elfie: Just one post? Says Lottie seems ok and votes Eomer because he (?) has no idea what he might be. Erm, right, odd. And says Volo seems ok on further consideration. Really strange little post this.

Eomer: Says let TB go after Nog toNight and ignore him from now on. Yeah why not?

Greenie: Doesn't trust people who don't make an effort with their vote, for example Form and Eomer. "Other than that, I'm quite at a loss with why Nog calling Agan a cobbler makes it probable Aganwolf and her pack would think him the Seer who had dreamed her." I love this comment because I think this is the crux of the argument and is where I'm totally lost.

Volo: Thinks Nog might be a wolf because he's tense, but thinks if he were a wolf then he'd be hiding this better. Doesn't think he's the BW. Thinks Agan suspicious for putting forth a way to out the BW which would take attention away from the lynch itself. Well it's a fair reason. Thinks Shasta innocent. Interesting idea that the BW may take against the innocents if outed that way. Thinks Greenie and wilwa look ok, not sure on anyone else. Will likely vote a quiet player.

Form: Nothing in that post except complaints. And a second one!

wilwa: I'm reading these posts having seen Shasta explain that he wasn't only focusing on Nog, he just hadn't had a chance to get further. I don't know whether, had I not seen this already, I'd have read the argument in the same way as wilwa - who says Shasta seemed to think only Nog was a possibility. That said, I still agree that we need to be careful when talking about possible Seers.

Agan - ah, I've realised I've been skimming Agan's posts and not commenting. Well I probably commented on most of what she said when talking about other people. Anyway. Finds Nog, sally, Volo, Nerwen and Shasta guilty. Finds Greenie, wilwa, Pitch and Lottie innocent. Likely to vote Nog, Volo or sally. She has reasoning for everyone, and based on how many discussions and arguments she's been involved in with most of the people named it is pretty extensive.

Votes:
Nerwen - Agan

By the way - Volo made a Freudian slip? What was that?

Oh and Pitch. I didn't mean to offend with my appalling lack of memory. Our dear mod has to give me daily reminders that the game is going on just so I remember to turn up so please don't think it's just you!

Ah and it was Pitch not Nerwen who had that argument with Agan about the rules. Which is funny given this later comment by Pitch: Right. I just checked the rules to find that the Seer, in this game, can actually find out the Cobbler.

Right, posting this then I'll think about a vote.

I wonder why she takes me to task for saying Shasta was too focused on Nog, but seems to give Wilwa a pass for the same thing.

Originally Posted by Kath

Leaning guilty:
Shasta - I think it's great that he's around with ideas and I do think his words have been taken out of context a lot. That said, I think he focuses on the Seer too much and could potentially be a Cobbler taking attention away from the wolves.

Nog - Confusing and rude in tone to Agan.

Inzil - Well maybe being in the middle of the argument alters your view but as I said I thought some of his comments were inflammatory and unfair.

Elfie: Didn't like that single post. Unlikely to vote her because she said she won't be back.

Volo - Is going to be in deep trouble if his style keeps getting him on to this side of the lists. Because that's why he's here - what he's actually said seems ok, but there's something running the wrong way there.

Leaning innocent:
Lottie - Think she's ok.
Eomer.
Greenie.

No idea:
Nerwen
wilwa
Form - and I'm oh so tempted to vote him so the hardship of being here is removed for him.
Agan - there's almost too much surrounding her to be able to decide what to do there. I'm still half inclined to suggest lynching her and be done with it!

Haha I accidentally wrote about wilwa twice! In the first section I conclude she's pretty innocent, in the section I get rather suspicious! I've put her in no idea as a result.

Back in a minute with a vote. Want to check any cross posts first.

Under "Leaning Guilty", has Shasta, Nog, Me, TEW, and Volo. Form is under "No idea".

Originally Posted by Kath

Argh I missed Pitch off - I'm seriously going to be hated soon. If it's any consolation the last post made me think you innocent.

So, vote:

[++FORM
I'm going on principles. Don't want to play? Feel free to leave.

The obvious question is why she voted for Form over someone she actually found suspicious.

Originally Posted by Kath

*sigh* And of course my vote cross posts with Form. Oh well.

Would it have made a difference?

Overall, I'm rather worried about her, mainly for her votes and the reasoning therein.

x/d with Wilwa and Shasta

[A Little Green]

Agan – Seems generally reasonable, and I like it that she really puts an effort into the game. Don't agree with everything she says though.

Eomer – Still not much on him. Not surprised if he's a wolf sitting back and taking it easy. Might deserve a closer look.

Formendacil – Confuses me to no end. I have a hard time seeing him as a wolf, but almost as hard seeing him innocent.

Inziladun – Enigmatic as ever.

Kath – Pays a lot of attention to fair play which I appreciate. In her list post three of her five guilties were there mainly due to being rude or unfair to others. While I'm strictly of the opinion that such behaviour needs to be pointed out and criticised, I don't see it as a sign of wolvery. I can't help thinking that her ”going on principles” -vote would have been the perfect move for a wolf: a reasoned vote that isn't really risky whatever happens later. Her tone seems genuine but I can't shrug off the idea that she might be just fooling me big time. And Inzil's analysis didn't make me feel any better.

Loslote – Hmm. I usually ”catch” her when she's innocent. Now she's been flying under my radar which has me slightly worried, but I have nothing on her apart from that.

Nerwen – Shrewd and smooth as always, no idea as to what her role could be. Might deserve a closer look.

Pitchwife – Quite frankly no idea.

Sally – Haven't seen much of her, which is a pity. Her Day 1 vote wasn't fabulous but I'd be unwilling to vote her unless she turns up as that wouldn't be quite fair, given that her absence is probably due to being ill.

Shasta – I have not ignored the possibility that he might be a wolf, which I do every time he actually is one. Feeling ok at the moment.

The Elf-Warrior – Not sure I like this One Post per Day -attitude though he might be just busy. His posts don't look too good either though there's too little substance to base any proper reasoned opinions on. Might check his posts though, it's not as if that's too big a project.

Wilwa – Seems very genuine to me.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Agan

However Inzil was initially suspicious of Volo because of the way he went after me, ie. didn't say a word about me but voted for me because I thought Greenie, whom he suspected, was innocent (this happened mainly on day 1).

continued from

Originally Posted by Agan Day1

Also, he only suspects Greenie but votes for me (when I already have a vote).

which was based on

Originally Posted by Volo Day1

Noggie doesn't bother with pleasantries and joins the Day with quite harsh words indeed. I sort of agree with his point, an evil Agan could very well be so bold as to mislead the discussion with something like that. But let's not get too jumpy yet.

I myself got the bad vibe from Greenie. Her painting of the worst-case scenario felt somewhat... mischevious. Additionally Agan liking Greenie instead of finding her suspicious points to an abnormality. This is just a hunch and I'll add that I've found Greenie suspicious all the time after her first game in which she was Wolf. But what do you think?

As you see, he was pondering the possibility of your being evil in the very same post. It's not really like he 'didn't say a word about' you and 'only suspected Greenie' but then all of a sudden voted you for no reason than you already had a vote. Some more twisting going on here?
And to be fair, I think he had a point - you Finns all have a long tradition of being at each other's throats in almost every single game, and Volo knows you all quite well, so I think I understand why your lack of suspicion of Greenie seemed eyebrow-raising to him, maybe pointing to you two being packmates.

(x-ed from #286 down)

[Inziladun]

The next few hours are looking to be very busy, so I probably won't be around anymore toDay.

TEW has not done himself any favours in my view, and I can see the temptation to vote for him. Seems too easy though, and I'm not convinced he's not merely a busy innocent.

And to get away from those who have been in the spotlight most, let's go with

++Kath

Dodgy votes and a demeanor that feels different than innocent-Kath

Vote well, folks.

x/d with Pitch

[A Little Green]

Oh, and I agree with Agan and Wilwa that this quietness is not constructive, and more than that, it's dangerous. (A pity Nog is dead, I'm sure he would agree too.)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Inzil

Now, perhaps we can put Shasta's theory to rest.

At least there's no kill toNight.

I can't help but pull a Lottie here and say that this seems oddly showy for Inzil (Wilwa's post above is similar, but gives off a different sort of feel than this casual one-liner). However, I've been after Inzil a lot, so maybe I'm just biased here.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Looking back now, both Greenie and Sally, two of the remaining three voters, had indicated they would not be around. That left Eomer, who wasn't likely to vote for himself at that point even if he'd been innocent.

...And this looks like Inzil is pulling the most mundane parts out of people's posts to respond to to look helpful. My next comment will be about someone else other than jittery Inzil, I promise.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Only if he's really cleaned up his act since last time.

What's that supposed to mean, dear one?

Skipping over the drivel in #255 like I said I would...

I notice the only thing Eomer's put forth today is that he agrees with Nerwen about the possibility of wolves holding their votes until late, and doesn't see anything Seerish about Nog. It's been a while since I played with Eomer, but I seem to remember him being more... involved, as a wolf. He's striking me as 'bored ordo' right now, but I could still vote him on principle! *mean look*

Originally Posted by Agan

It just seemed so useless to suggest we try to figure out whom the wolves targeted.

And I still disagree with you.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Perhaps we can technically "afford to lynch another quiet player", but that doesn't mean we should.

Why shouldn't we, Inzil? It's a given fact that quiet players are harder to catch at anything than loud players simply because of the amount of talking they do. Plus I'm for lynching lurkers on principle and always have been. I'm not saying I'm going to today (though I am considering it; Eomer for his constant "I'll say more" and not living up to it]), but I don't understand why you seem to be so against it.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I can't help thinking that her ”going on principles” -vote would have been the perfect move for a wolf:

I don't really see why having principles automatically makes you wolvish.

Originally Posted by Inzil

TEW has not done himself any favours in my view, and I can see the temptation to vote for him. Seems too easy though, and I'm not convinced he's not merely a busy innocent.

TEW as a vote is "too easy", yet voting for someone who hasn't shown up today (Kath) isn't? Need I remind you that that's practically identical to how I got lynched as the Seer last game?

Inzil is currently topping my "will vote for" list, followed by Eomer. In fact, why don't I just make that list...

Would like to vote for -
Inzil
Eomer
TEW
Agan

Won't be voting for -
Wilwa
Lottie
Greenie

Currently neutral on -
Pitch
Nerwen

Would be a principle vote, but probably won't be voting unless circumstances change -
Sally
Kath
Form

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Quiet
Eomer
Formendacil
Kath
Sally
The Elf-Warrior

I'd consider putting Kath into the Moderately Loud group, just to be fair. I think she has posted more of substance than the others.

And as for sally, if she doesn't show up today, she'll be modfired.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

It's not really like he 'didn't say a word about' you and 'only suspected Greenie' but then all of a sudden voted you for no reason than you already had a vote.

As I see it, that hardly counts as suspicion. The possibility of me doing something as a baddie doesn't make me a baddie, and someone saying so doesn't make me think they are actually suspecting me. And I never said he only voted for me because I already had a vote!

And to be fair, I think he had a point - you Finns all have a long tradition of being at each other's throats in almost every single game

Hahaha! We might abide by the stereotype of Finns being aggressive and violent, but at least we aren't quiet!

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Shasta

I don't really see why having principles automatically makes you wolvish.

Don't over-interpret me, darling. Of course it doesn't, nor did I say so. Every one of us (hopefully) has some moral principles concerning this game, and they generally don't change with role. What I was talking about was Kath voting on those principles. It just occurred to me that while perfectly logical for an innocent Kath too, voting on principles rather than suspicion would be pretty clever for a wolf, and once I had thought of that I couldn't shrug off the feeling.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

It's been a while since I played with Eomer, but I seem to remember him being more... involved, as a wolf.

Last time I played with him, he was a wolf and I don't think he was much more involved.

Why shouldn't we, Inzil?

And still you have the two people with the highest post count on your Would like to vote list...

I don't really see why having principles automatically makes you wolvish.

I don't think she said "automatically", she only said it would be convenient for a wolf.

More tea for me now.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

It just occurred to me that while perfectly logical for an innocent Kath too, voting on principles rather than suspicion would be pretty clever for a wolf

I'd be careful with that kind of assumptions, though. It isn't basically any better than saying "I can imagine Aganwolf possibly doing that, hmm I wonder if I should vote for her now!"

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Agan

I'd consider putting Kath into the Moderately Loud group, just to be fair. I think she has posted more of substance than the others.

And as for sally, if she doesn't show up today, she'll be modfired.

Yes, Kath has posted a bit more (though not toDay, but yesterDay she did have some longer ones). Even though her reasoning for her vote on Day 1 still bothers me, because I felt I gave a good reason to vote for Glirdan and she said I didn't, and then she said something about him adapting Agan's plan to find the cobblers, which is not correct, he mentioned the idea but never explained how it would work. Perhaps she was too busy to really look closely, I don't know.

I would feel bad about voting Sally, cause she seems to only be absent due to sickness, and like you said, she may be mod-fired anyway so there's no point in wasting the lynch.

So I'm leaning towards Form, Eomer and TEW. All three of them have given some shoddy reasoning for one or more of their votes, and they all of this careless air about them. I feel like one of them could be a wolf (or the BW) just trying to skate through unnoticed. I'm leaning most towards Eomer now out of the three, but I would be willing to vote any of them.

edit: x'ed with a Greenie and 2 Agans...I want tea now...

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Agan

I'd be careful with that kind of assumptions, though. It isn't basically any better than saying "I can imagine Aganwolf possibly doing that, hmm I wonder if I should vote for her now!"

Hold it, love, I never mentioned voting Kath. Neither did I say I assumed Kath's vote was by a wolf, I mentioned it as a possibility because it occurred to me.


EDIT: x-ed with Wilwa

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Last time I played with him, he was a wolf and I don't think he was much more involved.


And still you have the two people with the highest post count on your Would like to vote list...


I don't think she said "automatically", she only said it would be convenient for a wolf.

More tea for me now.

I never said honest suspicion shouldn't trump lurking, Agan. What's your point here?

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Zil in his Kathalysis

I don't remember discussions of one not understanding rules making them suspicious. I'm not saying for certain that no one mentioned it, but this seems an odd thing for her to bring up here.

The discussion Kath referred to in this quote was between Agan and me on Day 1, and was brought up again on Day 2, so I see why Kath commented on it.

Originally Posted by still Zil on Kath

I wonder why she takes me to task for saying Shasta was too focused on Nog, but seems to give Wilwa a pass for the same thing.

Hmm, I'm afraid I'll have to go back to that debate and see whether there was any difference between wilwa's position and yours which Kath could have seen. At the moment, however, I'm not awfully inclined to take your analysis at face falue. Sorry.

Moreover, of the quiet ones, Kath has meanwhile made more of an effort to play and give us some reasoned opinions as the others, so if we go for a submarine, I don't think we should start with her.

(x-ed with a load)

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I would feel bad about voting Sally, cause she seems to only be absent due to sickness, and like you said, she may be mod-fired anyway so there's no point in wasting the lynch.

Yeah that's true, I just mentioned it because I hadn't thought of it before. I probably won't vote for her today but I really disapprove if she keeps posting so little. My next best option is Eomer - I'm also suspicious of Nerwen and a bit less so of Shasta, but I'm not sure I want to vote at least for Shasta today because he's actually posting, so I might even go for Form or EW.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Hold it, love, I never mentioned voting Kath. Neither did I say I assumed Kath's vote was by a wolf, I mentioned it as a possibility because it occurred to me.

I know, the way you phrased it in your explanation post to Shasta just reminded me of the people who seemed to suspect me only because I "might" do something as a wolf, so I felt like pointing it out.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I never said honest suspicion shouldn't trump lurking, Agan. What's your point here?

The thing is, I agree with your point but it just somehow seemed slightly self-contradictory.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shasta

I notice the only thing Eomer's put forth today is that he agrees with Nerwen about the possibility of wolves holding their votes until late, and doesn't see anything Seerish about Nog. It's been a while since I played with Eomer, but I seem to remember him being more... involved, as a wolf. He's striking me as 'bored ordo' right now, but I could still vote him on principle! *mean look*

Remember the game when Eowolf and I made you our first Night-kill? (Rhetoric question, I don't think you've forgotten it so soon...) He was almost as lazy then as he is now, mostly going after Greenie in an apodictic way with no clearly explained reasons, exactly like he voted Agan on Day1. I certainly wouldn't rule him out as a wolf... or maybe a Wight.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Why shouldn't we, Inzil? It's a given fact that quiet players are harder to catch at anything than loud players simply because of the amount of talking they do. Plus I'm for lynching lurkers on principle and always have been.

Agreed. And it's interesting Zil said this, given his vote for Kath. Another brick in the wall.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Inzil is currently topping my "will vote for" list, followed by Eomer.

You know what, I could actually get behind this.

[wilwarin538]

Ok, so I definitely want to go for a submarinish type person today. Not Kath, because she participated much more yesterDay, not Sally cause she's sick, not Form cause he hasn't been on yet toDay and out of the 3 guys I get the most innocent vibes from him (despite the fact that I greatly dislike his votes). So that leaves it to TEW and Eomer, and out of the two I feel like TEW is more likely to be just a busy innocent, while Eomer just....erks me, too quiet and doesn't seem to care all that much, like he'll just be able to skate through.

So here it goes:

++Eomer

I might be able to come back on close to the end of the Day, just want to vote now before I get distracted with other things and forget .

x'ed with Pitch

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Inziladun

I'm more bothered by what he's said today than what he's said previously, and that's saying something.

I'm voting now because I'll be around, but extremely sporadically, and I'd hate to not vote at all.

[A Little Green]

Since no one seems to have done this yet - unless I've missed something our current vote tally looks like this:

Elf-Warrior – Shasta
Nerwen – Agan
Loslote – Elf-Warrior
Inzil – Kath
Wilwa – Eomer
Shasta – Inzil

So no one with more than one vote.

[Aganzir]

I'd rather we didn't lynch Inzil today, even with Pitch's comments on how he suspected Volo I don't think he looks too bad (I mean, no one who reputedly looks like me can look too bad ) and he at least talks.

EW - Shasta
Nerwen - Agan
Lottie - EW
Zil - Kath
wilwa - Eomer
Shasta - Zil

Left: Agan, Eomer, Form, Greenie, Kath, Pitch, sally

[Aganzir]

I just realised Eomer will be modfired too if he doesn't show up. Let's see how this goes...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

You mean if he doesn't vote, right? He has posted today.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

You mean if he doesn't vote, right? He has posted today.

Yeah. I meant it like, "if he doesn't show up before deadline."

I almost wish that happened... just because I'm mean like that. At least I wouldn't have to wonder about them anymore.

[Kath]

I have to say if you consider me quiet NOW Inzil then you're in for a shocker. I've been downright loud this game!

Also, yes it would have made a difference to my vote yesterDay if I'd seen Form's post before I voted because I was voting for him based on the fact that he'd made two posts with absolutely no helpfulness in them that in fact only contained complaining about the situation. My 'guilty' and 'innocent' lists were 'leaning toward' not 'certain' and having just read Form's posts he'd wound me up.

Whoever said I gave wilwa a free pass, I included her in my analysis twice and got confused about what I thought about her. As I seemed to have come to two totally different conclusions I decided to leave it be.

My battery is about to die so I'll be back in about 10 minutes or so. Can't promise a major look at the Day as I'm pushed for time. I'll also answer any questions I've missed along the way, or if you have more throw them my way.

[satansaloser2005]

Many things about this are not good.

No, seriously. Yes, there’s no kill toNight, and that’s super, but Nog was a good solid player, and one of the few loud people was have left (until my return, of course, lol). I don’t think the wolves thought he was the seer -well, it’s possible, but I doubt that was their main reason- but if not, he had to have something correct somewhere. Either that or they wanted to keep people’s minds off of other things by killing someone who would lead to a lot of discussion (which it clearly has, so congrats on that).

And now to the previous Night’s kill. That is some BAD STUFF, people. The wolves now have one person who they know the role of, and whom they need to get lynched. Thus, obviously, if we catch all/most of the wolves, it should be fairly easy to spot the BW, because the odds are that the wolves will be going after them heavily. Until then, however, we’re flying blind, and the wolves will know later on in the game who not to kill, which gives them a better chance of hitting our seer or Tom Bombadil. So really, I guess it’s not a HORRIBLE thing, but it isn’t the best time for them to hit the BW, because they now have additional knowledge and thus power.

Basically, good on us for getting rid of a cobbler, and for the lack of a kill tonight, but we need to get wolves, and we need to dwindle their numbers as soon as possible, because the further we get into the game the more powerful the wolves will be, and the less risks they will have to take in making kills, thus giving them an advantage.

Also, how is Agan still alive? I said she was a wolf on Day One and you all just left her? YesterDay she was a possible candidate as well, and yet still, she lives. Unacceptable. She’s at the very least a cobbler (see my list below) and as such needs to die. Let’s take care of that.

Nutshell version: killing wolves is good. Let’s do it. Do my points make sense? Epic.


And now, a list of everyone and a snippet of my feelings on them.



Agan
I shan’t lie, Agan is playing a good game, but it’s so terribly obvious to me that she’s evil. From her plans to her attitude toward the whole BW thing (my mostly joking “ah, look, she said the BW is a girl!” aside), I can’t see how she could be a goodie. On the other hand, I very nearly want to keep her around just to argue with her later.

Eomer
I think that a wolf!Eomer may be more vocal, wanting to help out his pack and whatever, but perhaps he could be the BW? Alternatively, he could be our other cobbler. Still, he needs to die, because he’s totally up to something, and I don’t think it’s a good something.

Form
No read, which is depressing. I’m guessing, however, that Form isn’t changing form at Night.

Greenie
Her recent interactions with Agan make me think strange things about her, but she’s a low priority for me right now. I’d totally buy her as a cobbler, but I’m still really blah on her. o_O

Dun
Too loud! He makes my ears bleed! *smirks* Other than that, however, I’m not feeling a distinct evil or good vibe from him. He may become a priority later, but for now I’ll leave him alone. Basically I’ve overestimated his guilt before and since I have other people to worry about I’ll leave him alone for right now. However, I also wouldn’t be opposed to his lynch; I just wouldn’t probably go in on it at the moment.

Kath
She looks reasonable enough, but I think that sweet innocent act could be exactly that.

Lottie
I’m just waiting for someone to mount a campaign against her, or for her to be randomly killed at Night, but neither are happening. Generally a non-suspected Lottie is a guilty Lottie, so we’ll have to see how the game progresses. For now, however, I’ve not seen much that she’s actually done that would make me suspect her. It’s more of a “why is she still alive?” thing which may happen later on, and will make me headdesk at end game if she is in fact evil.

Nerwen
Sense, she makes it, and for that reason I shall keep her alive for now. Besides, I think she’s being sneaky, which means she’s innocent.

Pitchie
I’m getting no read on him, though he’s posted enough. I need to look at him more closely, but I have other people who are a higher priority right now, so let’s just consider him on the discussion table and a possible lynch choice later on in the game (which I just lost).

Sally
Nuf said.

Shasta
I think it’s been said, but his interactions with Nog yesterDay are interesting, and to me clear him of at least direct wolvery. He could be the BW, or the other cobbler, but I’m fairly certain that he’s not a proper wolf. Of course, he’s been helpful, so he needs to die anyway. Whoops. :/

Elfie
What the whatting what is all I have to say here. His vote toDay makes no sense, unless I’m missing something major, and he’s been far too much of a submarine. Reindeer aside, however, I think that what he does say has a feel of fur to it. Then again, this would be some okay BW behavior, as he comes and goes as he pleases and clearly doesn’t fear being a no-trace Night kill. I think either is a possibility, or perhaps even a cobbler, but I certainly don’t think he’s innocent.

Wilwa
I’m fairly certain that Vanilwa has the village’s best interest in mind. Volo’s statement at the end of yesterDay is interesting too, though I need to think about it more. Let’s keep in mind, for the sake of argument, that just because Volo protected her doesn’t mean she’s innocent. She could be a wolf, thus negating Volo’s protection on her while still giving him the idea that she is obviously not the BW. Just putting that out there; I’ll say more about it later. But yeah, pretty much, I think Wilwa’s a good one to keep around. On the other hand, let’s not write her off as a known innocent. We know (or at least can assume) that she’s not the BW. That doesn’t mean she’s not evil, and anyone who DOES make that assumption will look fishy in my eyes.

And now the mods....

Boro
Son of a proud mother and father. May his modly reign be everlasting.

Fea
Again, enough said.






Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand that's a happy 4,000th post to me. Back soon with more thoughts (and less youtube links). ^_^



ETA: I should mention that not all those links are little ghoul friendly. Most of them are just random though.

[A Little Green]

A QUICK LOOK AT THE ELF-WARRIOR. (I accidentally typed "the wlf-warrior" - wonder if that's a signal from my unconscious? )

Uncharacteristical to an analysis made by me, I will quote all his posts. After all, there are but eight of them in total with a significant percentage of one-liners. So here goes:

Day 1

All I know is we can't all be wolves.

Actually, I meant we as in all the villagers, but I do know I'm not a wolf, so the statement is correct, even if you two are wolves.

These two first ones are basically just Day 1 banter, not really noteworthy.

I say we lynch a suspected BW anyhow. He or she may actually be a wolf. The same goes for suspected cobblers.

Come to think about it, I think Lottie and Glirdan are right. The BW isn't a priority. We should let Tom Bombadil deal with BW suspects. Let us focus on finding wolves.

This Legate-180 concerning the BW makes me feel a bit better about EW - I'd think a wolf would try to be consistent and avoid such open changes of mind.

A wolf would be concerned about the safety of fellow packmates.

Bill Ferny would probably be more cautious than Harry Goatleaf because Mr. Ferny can spy on the other players, thus giving him an incentive to stay alive to learn the identities of as many wolves as possible.

Mr. Goatleaf does have an incentive to stay alive; he probably would want to stay alive long enough for Mr. Ferny to find him and thus be able to communicate with him.

It's not that there was much (or any) discussion on other topics than cobblers and barrow-wights at that point, but EW never talks about his suspicions before his vote post:

I'm gonna go with
++Volo.
I think Shasta found a freudian slip. I haven't read any farther than Nogrod's post after Shasta.

Referring, I think, to Volo talking about some baddie being killed "silently during the Night" (can't remember the exact quote though). Not a very strong reason but compared to some other votes that Day it can't really be faulted for that.

Day 2

Lottie, you seem OK to me.

I'm voting
++Eomer

Eomer's behavior strikes me as cobblerish, or he could be a wolf or a wight. Or he could be innocent. I don't know, but I'd bet he's bad. I'm gonna flip flop some more and say that Volo seems OK to me after further consideration. I think he's just a little off his game.

I probably won't post any more toDay. I have to work past the deadline and I'd better get some sleep. Bye.

His only post of the Day. He does seem notably flip-floppy and points it out himself.

Day 3

++Shasta

I think he tried to frame Nogrod as the BW. Shasta, I hope you're pleased at what you and your buddies accomplished last night.

This statement sticks in my craw,

That is not what Lottie had been advocating and I think you know it. One way or another, you're goin' down boy.

One last thing, I'm a he. This is the Elf-warrior, signing off. Death to lycanthropes!!

And again, a new suspect out of the blue.

Aaand that's it! Conclusions? EW seems consistent in being inconsistent if you know what I mean. I'm slightly uneasy with how much he's flip-flopping. Flip-flopping in itself is by no means evil, and for example in the Barrow-Wight issue it looked like a genuine change of opinion, but I don't like the way he suspects somebody and completely drops it the next Day. Of course people's suspicions change, they are bound to, but I'm at a loss with what happened to suspecting Eomer between Days 2 and 3 - though it's of course possible he simply suspected Shasta more than Eomer toDay. He's certainly acting odd, but still I'm not sure a Wolf-Warrior would be so overtly and openly inconsistent.


EDIT: x-ed with Agan, Kath and Sally

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sally!!!!!!

I am so proud of you (and love my video ), but what does this mean -

Originally Posted by Sally

Of course, he’s been helpful, so he needs to die anyway. Whoops. :/

This wouldn't be a thlip of the tongue, would it?

In any case, welcome back (and don't forget to vote today or you'll get MKed). <3

[satansaloser2005]

It means I love you, my little snow cone. <3


ETA: Added youtube link, which took me a bit longer to find than I expected. Huh.

[Pitchwife]

Two hours to DL, is that right? (I'm not quite sure because daylight serving time has ended in Germany last night)

OK, some thoughts on the Volowagon.
wilwa voted Volo for being weird and illogical and talking without saying anything helpful. Fair enough, and she was the first to vote him, so no wolvish bandwagoning here.
Agan found Volo weird too, and voted him for voting her after he'd suspected Greenie, on which I've commented above. She also has some possibly cobblerish behaviour from Day 1 against her. I don't know, I keep excusing her just because we get along so well, and I agree with many things she keeps saying inbetween. Note that she's also agreed with me a lot, which should worry me as it could be wolvish buttering-up. I don't think I'll vote for her toDay, but I'm not sure I'd raise a hand to save her either.
Zil - third vote on the wagon, and his previously stated suspicion of Volo looks shaky bordering on fishy to me. Not so happy with his vote toDay either.
Shasta - x-ed with Zil, could be a bandwagoning wolf as well, and I don't at the moment remember whether he'd talked that much about Volo earlier. His posts toDay make me more inclined to think him innocent, however (which is quite alarming - last time I thought that he turned out to be a wolf...)
(Nog - known innocent)

From the above, I think I could vote Zil. Other than that, I could vote for Eomer again; on the other hand it would be quite nice to leave him (and sally?) to Modfire and not waste a lynch on a submarine, giving us a chance to get a louder wolf instead.

(x-ed with sally pp.)

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Two hours to DL, is that right?

Half an hour until DL, pumpkin.

[Aganzir]

I'm tempted not to vote for sally today because she's just freaking hilarious. Thanks a lot for the song.

Seriously though, her post hasn't lessened my suspicion at all. It looks... contrived.

Originally Posted by sally

That is some BAD STUFF, people. The wolves now have one person who they know the role of, and whom they need to get lynched.

I fail to see what's so bad if the wolves try to lynch the BW. First, it's one baddie down. Second, doing so might lead back to them. I don't think the wolves would go heavily after the BW (all of them at least), just because people might pay attention to such behaviour later - but it should be possible to find things in their posts that suggest they know more than the rest of us. It looks like you're intentionally trying to make it sound like the wolves would behave in a certain way, and it's dangerous.

Originally Posted by sally

Also, how is Agan still alive? I said she was a wolf on Day One and you all just left her?

That probably tells more about you than me.

I'd rather maybe not lynch EW today either.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I'm not sure I'd raise a hand to save her either.

Pitch! I thought you were a gentleman.

My thoughts in a nutshell:

GUILTY
sally
Nerwen
Eomer
Shasta

INNOCENT
Greenie
wilwa
Pitch
Lottie
Zil

EITHER
Form
Kath
EW

I'd prefer to vote for one on my Guilty list, preferably sally or Eomer.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I'm tempted not to vote for sally today because she's just freaking hilarious. Thanks a lot for the song.

You're welcome!

Originally Posted by ....Again

I fail to see what's so bad if the wolves try to lynch the BW. First, it's one baddie down. Second, doing so might lead back to them. I don't think the wolves would go heavily after the BW (all of them at least), just because people might pay attention to such behaviour later - but it should be possible to find things in their posts that suggest they know more than the rest of us. It looks like you're intentionally trying to make it sound like the wolves would behave in a certain way, and it's dangerous.

But why wouldn't they go after the BW? Seriously, think about it. The only way to get rid of the BW is to get him/her lynched. And no, they might not all go for him/her, but the people who are saying "yay, look, they tried to kill the BW!" aren't taking into account that the wolves now KNOW who the BW is. Thus, they're not going to kill him/her at Night, which means they'll be going after the rest of us, including our seer and Tom Bombadil, and having a better chance of hitting them than they would have had they not eliminated the BW from their Nightly equation. Hence, not good. Not really bad, either, but also not shiny.

And I have no idea what the wolves would do. I just know that it's a possibility, and thus we need to consider it. Besides, why are you trying to discount my idea when you agree that they will know more than the rest of us? Are you trying to hide something? I can't help but wonder if you're the BW, and not a wolf as I am currently suspecting. Still, you look mighty twitchy, which makes me think I also could have just nailed your battle plan on the head and you're (even more) nervous.

I'd rather maybe not lynch EW today either.

Good. Me neither. I'd much rather lynch you.

[Pitchwife]

Half an hour? Oops, thanks for the correction, sally (and I'm 'pumpkin' now, am I?) And congratulations on your epic 4000th post!