WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Nerwen, this post being from your point-of-view... does this mean you don't suspect Brinn of being a wolf any more?

Nah. Actually I suspect everyone except Lottie. I'm just trying to think things through.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Btw Lottie (and perhaps Shasta too), can you please explain to me how lynching an innocent Morsul is soo helpful to us? I'm really curious about this one.


I already stated this. Morsul was attracting attention and trying to get himself lynched. A lone wolf would not do that because he'd lose the game not just for himself, but his entire team. Giving up would be a selfish and lame move, and I didn't think Morsul would do that.

1. I didn't like the other two options (Nerwen and Skip). I figured they were at best ordos, and at worst gifted (although if so, they might have revealed). Morsul I figured was at worst ordo and at best the unicorn, which could give us Greenie (and thus several roles, including a possible wolf - we don't know who she dreamed her last Night) or Boro (and a functional Shirriff team) or a known innocent (always helpful).

2. He might well. He did that to his innocent team, now didn't he?

[Nerwen]

See, that's the other thing about Brinniel– she sounded like she knew Morsul was innocent.

And I guess the wolf would care which innocent got lynched if it seemed likely one was the Unicorn. But then, she suspected me before that came up.

So... still on the fence.

[skip spence]

1 Cursed: if chosen as the Night kill, will become a Wolf. Does not know their role, but the role will be revealed when they die.

That is somewhat ambiguous, isn't it? The role will be revealed "when they die".

If a cursed was struck tonight the question is whether he or she first died and then rose up as a wolf or merely turned into a wolf without dying. The latter seems more likely to me if it wasn't a ranger-save, and wouldn't require the role to be revealed. Otherwise the narration would have to tell us that someone was turned into a wolf tonight. Ultimately, there's no way of knowing unless Wilwa tells us.

In any case we need to focus on smoking out the last remaining wolf. If he or she then has a cub left in the litter we deal with that one too.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

to lynch the Unicorn just for the slight chance (1/5) of getting that doesn't make any sense to me.

Where did that 1/5 come from? If we lynched the unicorn today, there would be a 1/11 chance that Greenie comes back, 2/11 for Lottie to be happy and 3/11 that no one is resurrected.
And the ranger can't protect herself.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'm going to agree that Nerwen and Brinn probably aren't packmates even if the Cursed /was/ turned last night - not after the way they suspected each other yesterday.

Why? It's certain they couldn't be packmates yesterday, but there's nothing to say that if one of them is a wolf she went after the other (for whatever reason) and found her cursed.

Whether the cursed was turned or not, our safest bet is to try to find the fourth wolf instead of arguing what happened in the night. Either wilwa tells us or not. I'd rather consider today the continuation of yesterday with practically no new information - yeah Morsul died but it's hardly surprising he was innocent.

So, 10 of us alive now. In the worst case scenario (no ranger saves, no unicorn kill/unicorn doesn't bring anyone back), if there's just one wolf left she has to survive for five days. If there are two wolves, however, they have to stay alive for three days. So I'd say we can afford one mislynch, at most two.
And our situation becomes considerably worse if the unicorn brings Fea back.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

What I'm really afraid of is that the last wolf may have been able to slip through without revealing any ties to his or her companions.

Do you have a specific reason to think so?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

In my view the "case" against me was paper-thin

Paper-thin or not, there were some questions I'd like to see answers to.

Originally Posted by Mirandir

Of the three options, my money is on ranger save.

It's possible but better not to count on it. And if the cursed was turned, it would be in the fourth wolf's interests to give us a false sense of safety. Which means your comment made you rise again on my suspicion list.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

See, that's the other thing about Brinniel– she sounded like she knew Morsul was innocent.

And you sounded like you knew Glirdan was a wolf.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by skip spence

If a cursed was struck tonight the question is whether he or she first died and then rose up as a wolf or merely turned into a wolf without dying. The latter seems more likely to me if it wasn't a ranger-save, and wouldn't require the role to be revealed. Otherwise the narration would have to tell us that someone was turned into a wolf tonight. Ultimately, there's no way of knowing unless Wilwa tells us.

What happened in the night if the cursed was turned:
wolf: *stalks towards cursed* "Heya mate I'm here to kill you rawr!"
cursed: "Yikes!"
wolf: *bites*
cursed: *sprouts fur* "Omigod I didn't die!"
wolf: "Let's go kick some village butt yay!"

So basically the cursed didn't die, ergo there's no need to reveal her role (and doing that would kind of undermine the point of having a cursed anyway). It will be revealed when/if she's lynched.

And everybody except the wolf/wolves and the gifteds sleep tightly at night and don't know what exactly has been going on... so it's understandable wilwa didn't tell us any more. However because this is a game, we have a right to be curious and try to pester her until she reveals stuff.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Do you have a specific reason to think so?

Well, so far I haven't been able to work out who it could be.

Originally Posted by Agan

Paper-thin or not, there were some questions I'd like to see answers to.

Sure. Fire away.

Originally Posted by Agan

It's possible but better not to count on it. And if the cursed was turned, it would be in the fourth wolf's interests to give us a false sense of safety. Which means your comment made you rise again on my suspicion list.

You know something? Mira played in Werewolf LXXII: Now There's the Truth of It!, in which when the Cursed was turned, all we were told in the narration was, "Nobody died". Mind you, Mira herself was dead by then.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

You're not going to tell us which, dear Moddess?

EDIT:X'd with Lottie.

Originally Posted by skip spence

That is somewhat ambiguous, isn't it? The role will be revealed "when they die".

If a cursed was struck tonight the question is whether he or she first died and then rose up as a wolf or merely turned into a wolf without dying. The latter seems more likely to me if it wasn't a ranger-save, and wouldn't require the role to be revealed. Otherwise the narration would have to tell us that someone was turned into a wolf tonight. Ultimately, there's no way of knowing unless Wilwa tells us.

Hypothetically if the Cursed was turned I would not tell you. If the Cursed dies before being turned I would say "Cursed" beside their name. If the Cursed dies after being turned I would say "Cursed-Wolf" beside their name. Either way you find out only if they die, not when they originally get turned.

So yes it was either a Ranger save or the Cursed was turned or the Wolf forgot to give a kill. No I'm not telling you which. Yes I am enjoying this.

[skip spence]

Voting Day 4

1) Morsul on Morsul
2) Nerwen on skip spence
3) Morsul on skip spence (2) (retracts earlier vote)
4) Shasta on Morsul
5) Agan on Nerwen
6) skip spence on Morsul (2)
7) Mira on Morsul (3)
8) Lommy on Nerwen (2)
9) Legate on Nerwen (3)
10) WinWin on Morsul (4)
11) Lottie on Morsul (5)
12) Nerwen on Morsul (6) (retracts earlier vote)

Final vote tally:
Morsul 6
Nerwen 3
Skip 1

Interesting to note is that Nerwen uses her retraction "to save herself" although this in fact was not as vital as I first thought. When Nerwen re-voted Morsul was on 5 votes while Nerwen was on 3 with only Brinn left to vote, so even without the retraction she'd likely have survived.

Also, why did you not vote Brinn? There was still a chance to lynch Nerwen. All it would take was one person retracting his or her Morsul vote and re-voting Nerwen.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Interesting to note is that Nerwen uses her retraction "to save herself" although this in fact was not as vital as I first thought. When Nerwen re-voted Morsul was on 5 votes while Nerwen was on 3 with only Brinn left to vote, so even without the retraction she'd likely have survived.

Also, why did you not vote Brinn? There was still a chance to lynch Nerwen. All it would take was one person retracting his or her Morsul vote and re-voting Nerwen.

Do you really not see the contradiction between these two paragraphs, Skip?

N.B. My vote-post X'd with Lottie's, anyway.

[Aganzir]

I'm continuing my Nog's interactions analyse but because I have to leave in half an hour I'm not sure I have time to finish it (if not will complete it in the evening).

Btw wilwa, does the ranger know if she managed to save somebody or not? When you think of it, it'd make sense if she did (after all she drove the wolf away... unless even the sight of her was enough to drive the wolf away).

As for the questions Nerwen, I'd like to direct you here.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

You know something? Mira played in Werewolf LXXII: Now There's the Truth of It!, in which when the Cursed was turned, all we were told in the narration was, "Nobody died". Mind you, Mira herself was dead by then.

What does it have to do with anything?

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Do you really not see the contradiction between these two paragraphs, Skip?

There's no direct contradiction. I said you'd likely survive even without the retraction.

If you are innocent I think it more probable that you'd take the risk of keeping the retraction and hoping none shows up to vote again. The consequences for the innocent team wouldn't have been that bad if this happened.

However, if you are a wolf, the consequences of getting lynched then would have been the greatest imaginable: the game would be instantly lost. There would be no comfort-zone to take chances.

[Aganzir]

winty. Nog didn't speak much of him but was sort of protective towards him; he attacked Zil for criticising winty's vote and said that winty looked suspicious but was most likely just a newbie. On day 3 Nog thought winty's vote was good as it put Glirdan even more clearly in the lead. Winty himself didn't say anything about Nog but voted for him on day 4.

Mira. Nog keeps a distance to her and doesn't say anything definite about her, which looks somewhat suspicious (but then, she wasn't the only one). On day 1 he thought she could be a sneaky wolf but voting her a shot in the dark, on day 2 she didn't feel honest and voted too easy (winty), and the fact that she introduced a new candidate might mean she tried to save Glirdan. When she got votes on day 3 he said he didn't know about her but we could lynch her if we liked. This could really go either way: "Sure go ahead lynch an innocent!" or "If you lynch her let no one say I tried to save her!"
I might have missed a post but I can't see Mira would've said anything worth mentioning about Nog.

Agan. I'm obviously not going to analyse myself but if someone wants to do it, my summary of Nog's interactions is here.

Shasta. Nog seemed to always be slightly suspicious of Shasta and sort of suspected him for suspecting Morsul. He said that if Glirdan's a wolf, Shasta (and Mira) looks quite bad... and because this happened after Green had begun to suspect Nog, I wonder if he'd intentionally bring attention on his fellows as, even though he hadn't been suspected so far, the tide was obviously turning.
As for Shasta, he started paying more attention to Nog on day 3, saying that calling winty an easy lynch was just an excuse for him to suspect anyone who suspected winty. On day 4 he thought Nog was a hypocrite when it came to easy lynches.
There was Nog's attack on Shasta on day 4, but I'm not sure he would've done that if Shasta was his fellow... It's possible Shasta was just the one he thought he could lynch the most easily. But I'd rather not pay too much attention to what he said or did on day 4 because he probably knew he was going to die and no one knows if he was bluffing or double-bluffing.

Nerwen. Nog kept a distance to her as well; on day 1 he said she speaks sense and is dangerous unless one has a reason to suspect her, and on day 3 she looked good for having added a vote for a wolf on day 2.
Nerwen talked about Nog a bit more than he about her but didn't reach any more conclusions before day 4. She said his row with Inzil didn't look good but might have been a language problem. On day 4 she went through his posts, starting with "could go either way" but becoming gradually more suspicious (the general opinion against Nog became more accusing too). She voted for him late and said that if somebody else jumped out as more suspicious she might switch (ie if there was a last-minute bandwagon against somebody else?).
It might be good if somebody else went through Nerwen too because I'm personally more or less confident she's a wolf which means I might see things through slightly wolf-coloured glasses even if I try not to.

Legate. See Nerwen. Nog talked about those two in almost identical words.
Legate on the other hand talks about Nog without a qualm and doesn't look like he was trying to maintain a distance. On the first days he mostly just agreed with Nog but didn't have an opinion of him. On day 4 he brought forward (twice) the possibility that the wolves had tried to frame Nog by killing Green but in the end he voted for him.
Wavering like that doesn't look very good for Legate but if they were fellows, I don't think he'd be so clumsy...

skip. On the first two days Nog thought skip made sense and felt good. On day 3 however he pointed out that skip was defending Glirdan. It could be opportunistic Wolfgrod trying to make the best of a fellow's death or, if they were fellows, he might have wanted to be the first to point it out so he could maintain control of the situation, if you get what I mean. And he sort of mitigated it in the end, anyway. For the actual post, see here.
On day 3 skip didn't like it how Green suspected Nog, although only after Inzil had started to talk about it. On day 4 he didn't really talk about Nog, began to get worried about him quite late and ended up voting for Shasta. It doesn't really look very flattering to him... but then again I do wonder if skipwolf had been so obvious.

Lommy. Glirdan's being a wolf would make Lommy look more innocent, said Nog on day 3, but that's pretty much all.
Lommy herself named Nog as one of her suspects as early as on day 2 and was, I think, the first to do it. On day 4 she contributed heavily to his lynching. While I think Wolflómien could've done it too, it seems more likely Lommy isn't his fellow.

Brinniel. On day 1 Nog said she's reasonable and scary, on day 2 that there were points against her (and Glirdan) to a lesser degree. He also said that there are fair points against sally, and even though we're talking about Nog here, I kind of doubt he would've suspected all of his fellows so early. He thought Brinn's day 3 vote was good but pointed out she didn't mention Glirdan at all.
On day 2 Brinn found Nog reasonable, and on day 4 she said it was possible he was a wolf although the wolves could also have tried to frame him. She voted for him, saying she'd be surprised if he was innocent.

Likely fellows
Nerwen. Even if I hadn't been suspicious of her before, I think she'd make it here.

Possible fellows
winty
Mira
Legate
skip

Unlikely fellows
Shasta. I suppose it's possible he was a wolf with Nog, but I think it's rather unlikely.
Lommy
Brinn. I debated whether I should put her here or in Possible fellows and decided it'd be a tad too risky even for Nog to name all of his fellows as suspicious on day 2.

Alright I must go now... will be back later.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

What does it have to do with anything?

Isn't it obvious? Mira's saying the lack of information probably means a Ranger save, but she's recently played in a game where the same thing meant the Cursed had been found. So it seems an odd assumption to make.

Originally Posted by Skip

If you are innocent I think it more probable that you'd take the risk of keeping the retraction and hoping none shows up to vote again. The consequences for the innocent team wouldn't have been that bad if this happened.

Excuse me. Each innocent lost is a blow to the village and a plus to the evil side. Therefore it's an innocent's duty to save him or herself over an unknown. And why should I have thought no-one else would vote for me? Brinn had given every indication she would.

Aganzir, as for your "case" on me here:

1. The fact that I commented on wintywinty's random vote on Day One. At that time this– and Fea's similar vote– were the only noteworthy things that had happened. So I commented on them. That's all. You jumped on this and went on and on about it, quite obsessively. There is no case for me to answer here.

2. I suspected Glirdan, for perfectly good reasons. Note that Morsul– known innocent– also suspected him from the start of Day 2. Since I only suspected him, rather than knowing his role, I also tried to be fair by bringing up points in his favour as well as those against him. It's not my way to simply decide someone's guilty before I've even examined the evidence.

3.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I think that comment is awfully fishy. Framing whom? If the wolves guessed her identity, it was most likely because Nog was her top suspect. It looks like you were suggesting the wolves wanted to frame innocent Nog.

Yes. That was before I'd analysed him and seemed a possibility at that point.

4. Nogrod. Again, I didn't know his role, therefore I looked at both sides of the case before deciding to vote him.

5. Brinn's comment was out of context, in that she makes no mention of the fact that a.) this was early in the Day, b.) the rest of the post contained an (implied) case for Sally's intending to play Seer (thus implicating Glirdan) c.) I later analysed Glirdan's interactions with Sally and concluded he was more likely guilty than not. Let me ask you, Agan: how is it not out of context?

6. I said I found my analysis of Brinn inconclusive, because it was. No ulterior motive.

7. I voted Skip because I needed to vote in a hurry, and he seemed the most suspicious person. Yes, Greenie said he looked innocent, but she said that about a lot of people– we can't know for sure. Again, no ulterior motive. The end.

Happy now?

EDIT:typo.

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Isn't it obvious? Mira's saying the lack of information probably means a Ranger save, but she's recently played in a game where the same thing meant the Cursed had been found. So it seems an odd assumption to make.

No, I said it might mean a Ranger save and that's what I was personally leaning toward. Also, when I die that early on in games I tend not to follow what happens. So sorry, dear, that's a very shaky assumption you've made.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Mirandir

No, I said it might mean a Ranger save and that's what I was personally leaning toward. Also, when I die that early on in games I tend not to follow what happens.

Fair enough. I usually do, that's all.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I am here. So basically, we don't know what exactly has happened toNight and wilwa is actually not going to tell us at all. Well originally I sort of assumed that if a Ranger-save or a Cursed-turning happened, then we would be told in the narration, but since the Moddess stated otherwise, it can be anything. Whatever, I guess like somebody said we do not have much chance of unveiling it. If it was a Cursed-turning, we'd learn sooner or later, otherwise, of course the Ranger would know at least if it was a save. That said, I have been thinking whether actually some Gifteds coming out at some point wouldn't make sense, or at least later it could prove good (having lots of known innocents around, especially if Lottie is still around, and narrowing the choices a lot for us), but then on the other hand again, it would probably also narrow the choice for the Wolf to get the Cursed villager (if it has not been turned yet) and also, it would likely mean that the Unicorn would not ever be killed at all, which would basically reduce him/her to a known innocent (and his/her main importance right now is probably in that if a Wolf is stumbling at Night and killing people, that he/she accidentally kills an Unicorn and revives somebody, thus effectively negating the kill and creating a known innocent, and esp. if it returned some Greenie or something, it would be quite good).

But anyway, back to general thoughts... first in any case, I believe it wasn't clever for certain to turn around the lynch like it was yesterDay (well in general, even though I had no particularly deep suspicion for Nerwen, after I have decided to vote her, it was sort of disappointing to see "just" Morsul die, also because I was sort of "reading" him a lot better than Nerwen, who is basically enigmatic person otherwise). Sort of disappointing in that regard.

I will take a look at the yesterDay's votes now, to sort of review how it went and if there is a chance to get something out of it.

Otherwise, whatever has happened at Night, I guess since the Moddess is not giving us any hints, I think we should just continue as we go now - and if we lynch the last Wolf and the game does not end (or if later at Night something happens and we actually will be informed that the Cursed has been turned), the game will continue and then we can focus on the task there (and in such a case probably have some guidelines for finding any Wolf-interactions then). For that matter, if the Cursing did happen toNight, I would be most worried about Lommy then, as she was generally considered innocent, I believe, so I guess she would be a likely target for the Wolf. Also if this Night was missing the kill, I'd consider it more likely that the Wolf is Mira, or possibly WW (both of them sort of not being around that much - then again, however, if I were to choose, WW has quite a "clean" voting list, as I noted before). But whatever, leaving this for now.

Anyway, I am going to just review yesterDay's voting, like I said, and then hopefully post some thoughts on people in general. I guess I will focus mainly on my suspects from before, as I still think the Wolves are most likely to be among those with "uncertain voting patterns", but let's see...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Legate

If it was a Cursed-turning, we'd learn sooner or later, otherwise, of course the Ranger would know at least if it was a save.

Why? If the Ranger saved Person A, and the wolf attacked Person B (the cursed), the Ranger wouldn't have any idea, would they? This seems like an odd assumption to make.

In other news, I dislike the way winty just keeps popping in at the last second to vote. It's really starting to look like overwhelmed-newbie-wolf to me, but I still have several people to look at.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

By the way, I'm not happy about the suspicion against me yesterDay. In my view the "case" against me was paper-thin– though it's true that it was going to be hard to make a really strong case against anyone at that point.

You may see it that way, but I don't. Your actions on Day 3 and especially Day 4 look clearly suspicious to me.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

See, that's the other thing about Brinniel– she sounded like she knew Morsul was innocent.

I didn't know Morsul was innocent, but I was pretty certain about it because it just wasn't logical that he would be a wolf.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Where did that 1/5 come from? If we lynched the unicorn today, there would be a 1/11 chance that Greenie comes back, 2/11 for Lottie to be happy and 3/11 that no one is resurrected.

Exactly. The odds are so low, it doesn't make sense to lynch the unicorn just for the possibility that Greenie could come back. And while any other innocent would be nice, they won't necessarily provide us with that much more help and could end up being very misguided about who the last wolf is.

Originally Posted by skip

Also, why did you not vote Brinn? There was still a chance to lynch Nerwen. All it would take was one person retracting his or her Morsul vote and re-voting Nerwen.

Yeah, which was clearly unlikely. winty seemed pretty much gone by then. Nerwen used her retraction to save herself, and would obviously never vote for herself anyway. Lottie was the only one to convince, and I tried to persuade her to vote Nerwen and failed. By then, it was too late to persuade her to change it, and I'm quite certain she wouldn't have used her only retraction anyway when she seemed quite happy with her vote on Morsul. Even though my vote would've made no difference, I probably should've made one anyway simply for vote record reasons, but I was so irritated at the time, I couldn't be bothered with it.

Originally Posted by skip

If you are innocent I think it more probable that you'd take the risk of keeping the retraction and hoping none shows up to vote again. The consequences for the innocent team wouldn't have been that bad if this happened.

Not necessarily. I've seen innocents retract to save themselves before.


Okay, since we don't know what happened last Night, we should keep the possibility of a cursed turning in the back of our minds, but not yet attempt to go about looking for one just yet. The smartest thing we can do is find the last wolf and if we do and the game's still going, then obviously the cursed has been turned. I think killing the final wolf is really the only way to know what happened for sure.

Btw, if we were to lynch the cursed, would the narration indicate whether that cursed had indeed been turned, or would we be left guessing?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so in general not very sure much could be gathered from yesterDay's votes, but I sort of did not expect much, now that we can't count on any Wolf saving a Wolf there (or voting on Wolf, for that matter). Some people voted in self-preservation, which makes sense in any case, and otherwise the bandwaggons were not that big and were rather equal in size, so it's hard to judge. I guess the main evidence for us especially now still lays in people's interactions before.

I still trust Lommy, and Aganzir (well, like I said earlier). I am still not sure about Shasta, although his yesterDay's vote does not make him look any worse to me, it does not also make it better as it basically does not say anything, and there are still his earlier relations or attitudes towards the Wolves (or their behavior towards him) which could just as well be careful unpackmating.

I am of course, after yesterDay, sort of disappointed of not lynching Nerwen, maybe now I could actually re-read her also more deeply (although in general she also makes lots of lists and that's just rather long/annoying/not informative to read). If I were to say now where we could find the remaining Wolf, I would really go for either of Shasta, Mira and Nerwen (although I'd rather re-check her first, like I said). It is sort of funny how I said that Mira originally voiced only her suspicion of Morsul (sort of "in concert" with others) and later when the bandwaggon starts rolling she will jump on it, which she exactly did in the end. It is true that she had voiced suspicion for him before that, although it was several days ago, but of course we cannot say if it might not have been just something that she found now good to use. But anyway, generally she really hasn't been around very much - so especially that way we cannot have much of information about her possible interaction with the other Wolves. Otherwise, if I were to continue elsewhere, I could think about Skip too (the old question of him being either a rather good newbie Wolf or an "individualistic innocent"); his vote yesterDay might having been joining a bandwaggon "for a good reason" (something similar could be said about Shasta's vote also), but still I am sort of thinking that Greenie might have dreamed of him. If it were not for that, I would be suspecting him probably quite a bit by now, but right now he is not seeming that likely to me. Then also WW is a possibility, but he's again rather on the far side of the line.

EDIT: okay, seems something is happening at last. X-ed since my last post.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Why? If the Ranger saved Person A, and the wolf attacked Person B (the cursed), the Ranger wouldn't have any idea, would they? This seems like an odd assumption to make.

Well, that depends on the game's mechanics. I wouldn't have thought of that, but then, I am generally used to the fact that saves and whatnot are announced in the narrations. If I was doing it, I would probably send a PM to the Ranger in reply, saying "you saved XY" if it was the case, although now given our Moddesses behavior, it seems somewhat less likely for her to act like that. But anyway, well... who knows, I say let's leave the issue for now and concentrate on the present.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Btw, if we were to lynch the cursed, would the narration indicate whether that cursed had indeed been turned, or would we be left guessing?

As for this, I have been also wondering if we'd learn that, like, it would be nice to have a: "XXX - lynched on Day X - cursed" or something as announcement there. I guess that would make sense - but anyway... let's see.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Hypothetically if the Cursed was turned I would not tell you. If the Cursed dies before being turned I would say "Cursed" beside their name. If the Cursed dies after being turned I would say "Cursed-Wolf" beside their name. Either way you find out only if they die, not when they originally get turned.

So yes it was either a Ranger save or the Cursed was turned or the Wolf forgot to give a kill. No I'm not telling you which. Yes I am enjoying this.

^ This.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Not necessarily. I've seen innocents retract to save themselves before.

Yes but when when Nerwen retracted she was on 3 and Morsul on 5 with one person left to vote - you, who'd vote Nerwen. In other words, at that time it would take your vote plus another retraction from a third person to get her lynched. That could've happened, but wasn't very likely.

My point is, this risk to be lynched would seem more bearable for an innocent, because even if unfortune strikes, her team would still be in a good, if slightly worsened position. A wolf on the other hand would be desperate not to get lynched, because it would mean the End. Ergo, a wolf would imo have the strongest motivation to make that retraction move, without saying that an innocent couldn't do the same.

[wilwarin538]

Btw, if we were to lynch the cursed, would the narration indicate whether that cursed had indeed been turned, or would we be left guessing?

Like I already said, yes. If the Cursed dies before being turned you would see "Cursed" beside their name. If the Cursed dies after being turned you would see "Cursed-Wolf" beside their name.

[skip spence]

I might as well post this, a look I had this morning on Shasta's first 3 days:

Day 1

First three posts are IC banter

Post 53 is a list of sorts. Lottie is his only serious suspicion because she’s “posting a lot of fluff and not a lot of content, which doesn't remind me of an innocent incarnation of said Duchess.”

In Post 112 at which point Lottie has amassed a few votes and looks like getting lynched , he then changes his tone and now dislikes the votes on Lottie, “Partiiiiiially because it seems like we lynch her first a lot, and partiiiially because the reasoning on the bandwagon isn't superb”.

To this the Sally the wolf agrees. Shasta now finds Morsul the most suspect because he wants others to get rid of their retractions but at the same time keep but it turned out that Shasta just misread Morsul’s post.

Shasta eventually votes Greenie without an explanation (unless I missed it)

Day 2:

#340 is a long post of thoughts. Among other things he critiques Lottie for acting so sure of herself. Points out that Mira’s statement that she’s: “floundering for something to contribute” is suspect.

He also suspects Nerwen because of this statement of hers while she was giving Sally what actually was her second vote: “Now, I think that's the third vote on Sallymouse, which I guess makes it officially a bandwagon.”

He defends Sally from Legate’s accusations though:
Legate: “But this sounds a rather too over-the-top defensive thing and somehow, the defense sounds just fabricated. That didn't help you at least in my eyes, sally. But whatever...”

Shasta :"I disagree. I've been a frustrated innocent before (right, guys? *waves crossbow*) and honestly, Sally had just come back to two votes and a bucketload of suspicion. I'd probably be frustrated too".

Later on he states he’d likely vote Zil or Morsul, bickers a bit with Greenie then finally votes Morsul for “being opportunistic”.


Day 3:
First a short post where he agrees with others that Glirdan is suspicious and promises to look at Greenie because Glirdan will be scrutinized by others.
Then a few rather pointless short posts.

#494 is longer. Here Shasta critiques Morsul for his early votes( “it feels like he's established ‘vote early and be suspicious at all time’ as his own playstyle, but at the same time right now it feels like he's hiding behind it a bit”) and Brinn for being wishy-washy.
More bickering with Greenie, still with little weight behind the accusations. Shasta also questions why Nogrod calls winty an easy lynch: “Right, I'm going to take issue with people continuing to call winty an ‘easy lynch’”

#507 Qualifies his accusations against Greenie(who’s just voted Nogrod, rather surprisingly) :
"I do see it as a bit of a throwaway, honestly. I don't think anyone else so far has mentioned Nog (which worries me a bit, now that I think about it, considering that he's usually at the forefront of the discussion...) but your last comment looked like you're setting yourself up to look good if Glirdan is lynched and flips as a wolf."

I state my possible intention on voting Shasta:
“As it is, I'm leaning towards voting Shasta. He too has been voting very cleanly, never getting in the centre of the attention. Very, as it may seem, sneeky.”

Shasta responds: “It's a little odd to be voting someone for seeming too innocent. Just saying.”

He then votes Greenie. Interesting to note that Greenie died the following morning.


Don't know just what to make of this expect that I still find him rather suspicious.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

What happened in the night if the cursed was turned:
wolf: *stalks towards cursed* "Heya mate I'm here to kill you rawr!"
cursed: "Yikes!"
wolf: *bites*
cursed: *sprouts fur* "Omigod I didn't die!"
wolf: "Let's go kick some village butt yay!"

Epic. Win.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

You know something? Mira played in Werewolf LXXII: Now There's the Truth of It!, in which when the Cursed was turned, all we were told in the narration was, "Nobody died". Mind you, Mira herself was dead by then.

But she was a dead wolf at the time...and probably more concerned with the fact that the wolves were dying off at an alarming rate, if she was even watching.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

What does it have to do with anything?

Well, it was a fun game, and actually quite similar with the string of wolf-lynches. (four in a row, following a hunter wolf-kill. )

Originally Posted by skip spence

Yes but when when Nerwen retracted she was on 3 and Morsul on 5 with one person left to vote - you, who'd vote Nerwen. In other words, at that time it would take your vote plus another retraction from a third person to get her lynched. That could've happened, but wasn't very likely.

No, because she xed with me. If I hadn't voted and Brinn did, Nerwen would have died. Or if I'd voted for Nerwen, which was still possible.

Originally Posted by skip spence

He then votes Greenie. Interesting to note that Greenie died the following morning.

A wolf probably wouldn't be that bold.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Loslote

No, because she xed with me. If I hadn't voted and Brinn did, Nerwen would have died. Or if I'd voted for Nerwen, which was still possible.

Ok fair enough. With the x-posting my argument sort of falls apart I guess.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

On Mira:

#9 is IC posting.

#12 is fluff.

#48 - thinks Fea's vote isn't suspicious, but winty's is.

Originally Posted by Mira

wintywinty's vote is more suspicious. I do agree with whoever suggested it might be of a wolfish nature and xe was told to act newbieish to allay suspicion. Or it could be a newbie mistake. People do tend to follow Fea for no reason.

#287 is our dear Stick's first real contribution (<3).

Originally Posted by Mirandir

Oooh not a ton for me to catch up on even though the Day's more than half over. *approves*



Yes dear, would you care to explain that one for me please?

I also really disliked Zil's vote for me. If he could explain that too, I'd appreciate it.



Dead on.

So enough about me.

I tend to trust Lottie's shirriff reveal, since I see no reason not to. Her suspicion of Greenie makes me suspicious of her by default, but I'll have to go through and look a bit deeper at her posts.

So based on that information, I'll probably vote for Agan, Zil, or Greenie unless they manage to clear themselves in my eyes.

I'm also on the fence about Morsul and sally. Morsul's "vote of opportunity" seems mighty suspicious.

Said analysis of Greenie's posts might take a while since it's finals week and I reeeeally need to not get another D in seminar. Just sayin'.

Okay, what I'm getting out of this is that Mira suspects Agan and Zil because Agan suspected her and Zil voted for her, and Greenie because known innocent Lottie was suspicious of her. Was also suspicious of Morsul, which seems to be the only suspicion that had a reason.

#292 - TLDR; was only suspicious of Greenie because of Lottie, but isn't suspicious of her anymore.

#294 - Kind of jokingly defensive?

Originally Posted by Mira in response to Lommy

And how many of the times you've suspected me have I actually been evil?

#302 - Here's that "floundering" comment I thought was suspicious. Also mentions her suspicion of Aganzir.

Originally Posted by Mirandir

That was really me floundering for something to contribute than anything else. And no, I got the Morsul thing, and so far you suspicion is really the only reason I'm considering voting for you. I could look for more basis if you'd like.

#365 -

Originally Posted by Mirandir

Yes, dear. What about that is interesting to you? It was Day 1. That was the first post I had made that wasn't straight up banter and didn't particularly want to be accused of being evil for not participating.

In an attempt to not miss deadline for the second day in a row (which is unfortunately extremely likely considering how much studying I still have to do. Procrastination = bad), ima go ahead and vote now.

++wintywinty

There's something suspicious about the way he's been posting. It could be because he's a newbie, but I'm going to go with the idea that there's wolfish coaching going on. Might change that if The Mythology of Crime and Criminal Justice doesn't suck my life completely away before DL.

Wait, what? So you consider your suspicion of Agan "just banter"? And much as I'm glad to see someone not dismissing winty as "newbie", I don't think anyone else was very suspicious of him at this point, so this kind of seems like a throwaway.

#603 - Mentions her participation won't be great. However, mentions she thinks Morsul looks suspicious for talking so much for the first time all game (this after I said the same thing in #573 ).

#605 - Mentions she's a girl.

#677 - Thinks Morsul's self-vote is "the stupidest thing ever" and finds it suspicious.

#713 - More on Morsul's self-vote.

Originally Posted by Mira

So this pretty much boils down to I have no idea what to think. I'm leaning toward innocent and pigheaded, but tempted to vote him for sheer stupidity at the risk of being hypocritical.

#751 - Defends herself against Legate:

Originally Posted by Mira

I did voice suspicion against him before that, though. Like, two days ago. I'm just actually doing something about it now.

++Morsul

For reasons previously stated and since he's the only one who's really jumped out at me. This might change if I get the chance to go over some things more closely, but wanted to make sure I didn't miss deadline again.

This bothers me a little bit. Yes, she did, but only once, in passing (see #287). So for her to bring that up as a reason for jumping on Morsul two days later, even if she's been busy with RL... seems kind of forced.

#798 -

Originally Posted by Mira

Of the three options, my money is on ranger save. I feel like the narration would say something more interesting than nothing if the cursed had been turned. It's also unlikely the last wolf forgot to send in a kill. At this point it's too important to not remember to do. Thus, ranger save.

This was the quote that prompted this analysis in the first place. It seems awfully quick to dismiss the fact of a Cursed change altogether, and that really bothers me.

#815 -

Originally Posted by Mira

No, I said it might mean a Ranger save and that's what I was personally leaning toward. Also, when I die that early on in games I tend not to follow what happens. So sorry, dear, that's a very shaky assumption you've made.

No you didn't, Mira. You said... well, just look up.



Conclusion - I'd really like to see more from Mira, given her RL circumstances, but what she has said looks furry to me.

[wilwarin538]

Note: could everyone please un-highlight votes when you quote them, it confuses me. Thanks. <3

[Thinlómien]

I'm here and rather disappointed - both at yesterDay's lynch and at our Moddess' behaviour.

I have to go to the sauna with family now but I'll be back soon to write stuff. I promise to think in the sauna!

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Lommy

and at our Moddess' behaviour.

Ahaha. Come on, . The village wipped out almost all my baddies; a Cobbler and 3 wolves in 4 Days! I think it's about time this game was a little less easy for you guys!

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I think it's about time this game was a little less easy for you guys!

Was that a slip?

In other words, I'm here.

edit: No obviously it wasn't... I read the sentence properly right when I hit the Submit button, somehow I had thought wilwa talked about the baddie team.

[Thinlómien]

Well, as for my thoughts. It's pretty useless to speculate who could be a cursed who was turned last Night, because the same people are the ones who'd be innocent if there was a ranger save last Night... And as for no-kill, that would most likely have been Mira or Winty, but there have been wolves in ww history who have intentionally not submitted a kill as well as active people who have missed sending a kill... So, as much as I hate to say it, there really are no ways of making assumptions based on last Night's events as Wilwa's refusing to tell stuff... (Unless you want to go really meta and conclude since our Moddess seems to be rooting for the baddies, it's more likely she's teasing us since last Night was good for village ie either wolf missed the kill or there was a ranger save. But that doesn't help us much plus it's pretty optimistic and maybe a little too meta, but I'm just thinking aloud.)

What else? Well I have to say I'm quite clueless? I'm tempted to ignore Mira and Winty until they start talking substantially more because they have posted so little it's hard to read them. (Although that might not be smart.)

I'm not exactly convinced of Nerwen's defenses toDay, there was something she said which made me raise my eyebrows, but I can't remember what it was and I'd prefer to reread only once I don't have a cosmetic mask on my face ie when I can't use glasses. Aganzir is also starting to worry me, but this will probably annoy her because I don't have any rational reasons.

I still think Skip is a likely seer dream so I'm giving him a pass because of that still for a while at least. Besides he doesn't seem to evil anyway. I'm also inclined to think Brinn and Shasta innocent. This leaves Legate, of whom I'm very unsure, but he seems slightly more innocent than guilty.

If there's sombody I didn't mention, they're totally slipping under my radar.

PS. Wilwa, we're just too good for you and your puppies.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Isn't it obvious? Mira's saying the lack of information probably means a Ranger save, but she's recently played in a game where the same thing meant the Cursed had been found. So it seems an odd assumption to make.

Ahh okay, I got it. It was mostly that "Mira was dead by then" part that confused me.

So... thanks for the answers, although you mostly just commented on my case and only answered a few of the questions I asked you.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The fact that I commented on wintywinty's random vote on Day One.

Commenting is fine by itself. But your comment looked sinister. Yes I know there wasn't much to talk about yet and we had to start from somewhere, but there was just something about the comment, the way it was phrased or something. I don't think you can answer to it any better, but it's still creepy.

What does your comment about wolf tactics tending to run in cycles actually mean and could you give some examples?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Since I only suspected him, rather than knowing his role, I also tried to be fair by bringing up points in his favour as well as those against him.

That's alright. But when it has happened with every wolf we've lynched, it makes one wonder.

You said you wouldn't ignore the Lottie-voters (Lommy, Green & Legate) because the circumstances of the bandwagon were odd. Why were they odd?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Yes. That was before I'd analysed him and seemed a possibility at that point.

Maybe I'm just a more single-minded player, but when the seer is killed by the wolves, my first thought isn't usually that they wanted to frame somebody.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

There's a question of whether Sally honestly believed she had a chance of changing the outcome at that point (right on DL).

What does this comment have to do with anything? I just didn't get what you were trying to say.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Brinn's comment was out of context, in that she makes no mention of the fact that

It was a single comment. You made a big number of it. I personally don't think she was distorting what you said, in the sense that it represented your tone towards Glirdan quite well. Take it or leave it, you looked somewhat wishy-washy when it came to lynching him. That's the impression I got and I wasn't the only one.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Yes, Greenie said he looked innocent, but she said that about a lot of people– we can't know for sure.

So when the seer says somebody looks maybe the most innocent of us all, it means nothing?

When I came I just skimmed through Nerwen's answers and was like alright she seems to be making sense... But it quite looks like she had tried to avoid certain questions. Which doesn't make me feel any better about her.

I agree with Legate the remaining gifteds could maybe start to consider revealing... There are 10 of us now and if they revealed, it would leave only 7 (or 6, if the ranger made a succesful save and was told of it) unknown people. Yes it would make finding the cursed easier for the wolf (unless she already did it), but at the same time it would narrow the field of potential wolves.

Originally Posted by Legate

if the Cursing did happen toNight, I would be most worried about Lommy then

Me too, but we can never be certain... There are simply too many ways for the wolf to act. Thus far they've killed those that looked the most innocent but we have no way of knowing how long that pattern will continue.

Originally Posted by skip

Ergo, a wolf would imo have the strongest motivation to make that retraction move, without saying that an innocent couldn't do the same.

If you must choose between yourself and an unknown and you know you're innocent, it's better for you to kill the unknown (expecially now that the seer is already dead). So I don't think Nerwen's retraction to improve her own chances of survival tells us anything about her role.

I like Shasta's analysis of Mira.. If Nerwen is not a wolf, Mira would probably be my second bet.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Aganzir is also starting to worry me, but this will probably annoy her because I don't have any rational reasons.

No it would annoy me if you did have reasons because they are bound to be bad.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

If you must choose between yourself and an unknown and you know you're innocent, it's better for you to kill the unknown (expecially now that the seer is already dead). So I don't think Nerwen's retraction to improve her own chances of survival tells us anything about her role.

I think you too missed my point but enough of that. You however have yet to explain to me why dumping the retractables would be good for the innocent team but bad for the wolves, as you stated earlier.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, what disturbs me about Nerwen toDay
- how she seems to understand and sort of belittle the wave of suspicion against her as if it was somehow deserved: if I was her and was innocent, I would definitely think the whole case ridiculous and react much more strongly (I'm not cliaming Nerwen should get furious or something but some sort of "you're wrong" or "there's something fishy in that bandwagon" is what I'd have expected of anyone innocent)
- the amount of underlinings and italics in her defense posts gives a rather forced or feigned manner to it all

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, about yesterDay: so there were three lynch-candidates. Of those, I happen to know that the only one who could have been a wolf is Skip. So Wolf 4 I think, more likely to be among the bandwagon-hoppers than those who really pushed to lynch Morsul or me. (Legate? Mira? Skip himself? Lommy?)

...what? ...why? I don't get this point at all.

Originally Posted by Agan

Where did that 1/5 come from? If we lynched the unicorn today, there would be a 1/11 chance that Greenie comes back, 2/11 for Lottie to be happy and 3/11 that no one is resurrected.

My bad, I thought wolves are not counted as possibilities for a resurrection...

Originally Posted by Agan

And the ranger can't protect herself.

No, but the rules still say so so that's why I made the mistake.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by skip spence

I think you too missed my point but enough of that. You however have yet to explain to me why dumping the retractables would be good for the innocent team but bad for the wolves, as you stated earlier.

Garrr I've been explaining it almost every day!

I'm not urging anybody to dump their retraction (like I did). But especially if there are more wolves (who can communicate at night), they can use their retractions to lynch somebody they want (eg instead of one of them), which in turn can help them to win. Basically they can plan strategies that depend on the retractions. Innocents can't do the same because we don't have the necessary knowledge (ie it's not almost all the same to us who gets lynched) nor the means of communication (apart from the Sheriffs) which means the retractions are not as useful to us as they can be to the wolves.

Speaking of which... Nerwen and I don't have ours left, everybody else has.

[Nerwen]

Agan–

I have answered every point of yours that I could see. If there were other points I didn't deliberately ignore them, I just didn't recognise them as points.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

You said you wouldn't ignore the Lottie-voters (Lommy, Green & Legate) because the circumstances of the bandwagon were odd. Why were they odd?

I can't even remember what I meant at the time– I think that it seemed to come out of nowhere. I never could understand why Lottie was suspicious.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Commenting is fine by itself. But your comment looked sinister. Yes I know there wasn't much to talk about yet and we had to start from somewhere, but there was just something about the comment, the way it was phrased or something. I don't think you can answer to it any better, but it's still creepy.

You see? There's nothing in it and you know it. You have obsessed about a completely natural, sensible and, frankly, obvious comment I made early in the game beyond all reason. Get over it.

Do you know who else pursued another player relentlessly for saying something like, "we should scrutinize winty's vote?" That's right. Nogwolf. After innocent Zil.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Maybe I'm just a more single-minded player, but when the seer is killed by the wolves, my first thought isn't usually that they wanted to frame somebody.

It wasn't my first thought. I was listing all possible reasons why wolves might kill someone. Again, get over it.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

What does your comment about wolf tactics tending to run in cycles actually mean and could you give some examples?

I thought it was self-explanatory. But okay, take wolf-on-wolf suspicions, then. Why is this important, anyway?

All your points are like this, Agan. They're taking extremely minor things I've said and blowing them out of all proportion. There's so many that anyone skimming your posts probably thinks you've made an awesome watertight case against me.

And yes, I'm angry now. I'm feeling extremely frustrated with this situation.
What annoys me is that I have played an excellent game in terms of wolf-spotting, and my reward is having to defend every single trivial, casual remark I've made in the entire game. Looking for wolf-slips is one thing, but the amount of quibbling you're doing is through the roof.

I'm actually only defending myself for the benefit of other players. You, I'm sure, will never back down or admit you might have been wrong, no matter what I say.

EDIT:X'd with Lommy and Agan.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Me

1 Unicorn: when they die I will put the names of all of the dead in a hat, including the Unicorn’s name. If the name I pick out is of an innocent (or Cobbler) they will come back to life, if it’s a Wolf than no one comes back. Everyone comes back as an Ordo (except Cobbler still Cobbler, and Shirriff still Shirriff if their partner is still alive).

Just so it's there for everyone to understand.

[Thinlómien]

More underlinings and italics.

But Nerwen, I have to say I know how you feel. She always does that to me and it can really drive you crazy. But, I also think you should know Agan is like that: painfully nit-picky* and you should also know we others don't blindly follow her because we know we have said a dozen small stupid things ourselves along the game (or I would at least aaume I have although can't recall anything).

*and just for her defense: she seems to find that useful and often it is.

But anyway it's kind of disturbing watch you two back-and-forth since you are my top suspects. Quite eerie, because I can't really tell which one of you is evil (if either... )...


edit: xed with Alirin