T-I-G LV Sing when you're winning

[Macalaure]

My opinions right now, since I've got the feeling that my time is counted and I want to leave you with a little bit:

Kath - I was leaning innocent with her, but her insisting that the cobbler should be lynched before we try to lynch critics made her sky-rocket.

Gwath - nothing new about him... would be most suspicious if it weren't for Kath

Shasta - if there's a submarine, it's him.

Sally - I don't know about her, but I'm more and more getting the idea of an ordo who just happens to be wrong.

Lari - I just have no idea about her. Watch her, please.

Cailineomer - possible cobbler, but I'd be surprised if they are more than that.

Gollum - very likely innocent.

Boro - very, very likely innocent, but please don't give him a free pass.

[Aganzir]

How many would be ok with lynching Mac? Because if we don't lynch him today, I think I'm going to kill him. If we do, I kill Cailín. Probably.

[Macalaure]

Oh, joy....

[the phantom]

On the double-lynch business...

A Critic would be okay with supporting a double lynch, knowing that it was unlikely that the attempt would be successful. Remember, Fea and Agan were there with retractable votes to mess things up.

If Agan gets lynched and found innocent, Fea, in my mind, would still have been lynched the following day. Instead Fea got lynched, and today Agan would have been likely were it not for her role. Either way it was likely to work out the same, but it would've been much better to get Agan lynched first. And the only way for that to happen would be to support a double lynch and then have it get screwed up.

Because if we decide not to double lynch, who gets killed? Fea or Agan? Obviously Fea. The evidence was stronger.

And yet, wouldn't it also be a golden opportunity for a Critic to earn trust by supporting the killing of Fea while not supporting the slaying of Agan? If they could get on Agan's side, they would look awfully good. They could logically point out that the evidence pointed more at Fea, and no one would suspect them for it, for it was true.

So the question is, did the Critics decide to play the numbers game with the lynch, or decide to play the trust card and support Agan?

As far as Walter goes, he would not like two potential Critics to be lynched. So perhaps he opposed the double. But, he should have known that if both indeed were Critics, it was extremely unlikely that they'd allow themselves to be double lynched with their retractable votes in their hands. So he could have very safely been a huge supporter of offing two Critics, knowing that it was unlikely that it would come to pass.

[Cailín]

I object to extra time. Aganzir has made up her mind and we all know passion crimes are seldom rational. She shall regret it, but will be acquitted in Italian courts at least. Sally would not be discouraged from suspecting me even if I had a flawless record, because I treated her unkindly.

++Gwathagor

Out of the people who seem to be the singer's targets today, I think he is most likely a Critic.

[the phantom]

At least Cailin said she wasn't the Diva. So no disaster should you choose that route.

[satansaloser2005]

I'd rather lynch Gollum.

One-liners from me for the rest of the day. Sorry.

[Boromir88]

Extra time? That's not my business to decide, as I won't be around to use it. I've been looking primarily past days and have skim-read what's taken place today. So, I'll take a look through the stuff today, vote and have to go.

[Aganzir]

So it's

Gwath: sally
Shasta: Gollum
Cailín: Gwath

With seven votes to come.

[Macalaure]

phantom, both the critics and Walter could have reasons to support either. The question is, how would each approach it? Whatever they do, the critics don't want to end up hanging for it and Walter doesn't accidentally really support the double lynch - he'd rather die himself since the seer is revealed. They all need to have "exit strategies" in their plans.

[Boromir88]

At least Cailin said she wasn't the Divo. So no disaster should you choose that route.~tp

Wouldn't that point to her innocence? The only last-ditch defense critics and Walter have left is the divo? Unless if Walter has no more useful information to drop at night and has decided to give up?

[Lariren Shadow]

Back! Meeting done, reading done, grad application done, so now I just have to go back and answer Boro's accusations.

I would truly and dearly appreciate an extra half hour considering the class I would have to run to has been canceled.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

Back! Meeting done, reading done, grad application done, so now I just have to go back and answer Boro's accusations.

I would truly and dearly appreciate an extra half hour considering the class I would have to run to has been canceled.

ditto. More time to sneak.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Wouldn't that point to her innocence? The only last-ditch defense critics and Walter have left is the divo? Unless if Walter has no more useful information to drop at night and has decided to give up?

Or she's saying it for the sake of bluffing. Or Walter-Cailín wants to get killed instead of a critic.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Boro

Wouldn't that point to her innocence? The only last-ditch defense critics and Walter have left is the divo?

I'm not the divo either!

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'm not the divo either!

Good to know.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Mac

They all need to have "exit strategies" in their plans.

I agree. The safest way to approach things would be never to be on Fea's side in the first place. Or perhaps to support lynching Fea all day, but towards the deadline begin to waffle, and act like they think they are making a mistake, and then be proven totally wrong (with ignorance pointing towards innocence).

Originally Posted by Boro

Wouldn't that point to her innocence?

Yep.

Originally Posted by Boro

Unless if Walter has no more useful information to drop at night and has decided to give up?

Nah. As far as we know, Walter can still do the whole self-vote-to-clinch-game thing, so why not stick around and do it. The only thing Walter definitely wants at this time is not to be Night-killed. So I imagine about now he's hoping for a bit of suspicion to come his way, to preserve him through the Night. He's still useful, either as an opera-clincher, or at the least lynch fodder to protect the Critics.

[Kath]

Kath - I was leaning innocent with her, but her insisting that the cobbler should be lynched before we try to lynch critics made her sky-rocket.

YesterDay we lynched Fea under the assumption that she was the Cobbler not a Critic. We turned out to be even luckier but still.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Kath

YesterDay we lynched Fea under the assumption that she was the Cobbler not a Critic. We turned out to be even luckier but still.

And if she had been the cobbler and Aganzir a critic it would have been a clear mistake.

[Boromir88]

I'm not the divo either! ~Mac

Well then...

++Mac

Now are you?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Now are you?

No, I'm still not the divo.

[Aganzir]

I don't think saying she's not the diva points to Cailín's innocence. Just because it seems like a natural thing to say when in danger of being killed. Plus I could have said so, regardless of my role, if in the same situation.

++Mac

edit: xed with Mac

[Kath]

And if she had been the cobbler and Aganzir a critic it would have been a clear mistake.

No because had Agan been a Critic then we'd have lynched her toDay. The only reason we didn't lynch her was because she had evidence that she was something else. Therefore we'd have lynched both the Cobbler and a Critic in two Days, its not a bad rate of getting baddies.

[Macalaure]

++Sally

I think she's more suspicious than Gollum, and those two are the only ones that could save me, though I very much don't like following Gwath's vote.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Agan

I don't think saying she's not the diva points to Cailín's innocence.

Yes it does. It definitely does.

But that doesn't mean that she is innocent. It could mean she is guilty, but is well aware that such a statement would point to her innocence, and so she makes it.

[the phantom]

Good man, Mac. Someone needed to make Sally squirm under some pressure.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Kath

Therefore we'd have lynched both the Cobbler and a Critic in two Days, its not a bad rate of getting baddies.

Not a bad rate, true, but given tgwbs's information, it would have been the most basic success rate we could have had in that case.

[Boromir88]

I don't think saying she's not the diva points to Cailín's innocence. Just because it seems like a natural thing to say when in danger of being killed.~Agan

Well the ultimate hope for the critic would be to draw out the real divo, not necessarily to save themselves. This would assume however the critics don't know who the divo is, and is just trying to draw them out so not to waste a kill.

If they already know, I agree, but because they probably wouldn't want to draw the divo out giving us a known innocent.

[Macalaure]

What's the deadline now, Mith?

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Her comment about Lari looks suspicious too - it's kind of like let her live for a couple days unless she does something completely wolfish, than it's ok to lynch her. To also add on, I remember in the following days, Fea was quick to agree with my statement that Lari made some brilliant analysis. Fea probably knew she was not going to last the entire game as a critic, so it's possible that she could be setting up and innocent Lari. But, also that quick agreement could have been a strategy to push my feelings that Lari was innocent for her excellent analysis.

Lari will be gone for most the day...correct? And based on this, I would in no way propose we lynch her today, just saying I aint giving her the free days anymore, and I'm definitely taking away those complimentary waffles.

Lari - Fea discounts her for being a newbie, and we shouldn't lynch her unless she does something entirely wolfish. This raises the suspicion, now that Fea is a critic, but not enough to go on. Plus, with Lari's absense, I want to wait for a response, pressure on, eh?

Well damn, I liked those waffles.

To the point: well, what if I had done something wolfish? Like obviously know some roll the cobbler gave? That would be suspicious right? So then everyone would obviously want to lynch me and I would be dead. I'm innocent, though, and haven't done anything wolfish.

For Fea agreeing with what I said well, Ilya did too. For all I know Fea could have been encouraging me to keep posting and to play again(as she has been trying to get me to play since August).

I wish I had more time to go through this.

On the note of the double-lynch: I was sort of for one yesterday, but if only to get Fea(who was obviously evil) and one of the players that was very inactive. But then they were mod-fired so it all worked out. I just, well, what if Strongbow was a critic and won because we never did lynch him out of the game and just survived to the end? I thought that wouldn't be too fair. An excellent strategy, if not caught, but horrible for everyone else.

[Lariren Shadow]

Voting based on old suspicions(if deadline extended then might retract):

++Mac

[Macalaure]

Mith! Please extend the deadline!

[Boromir88]

No, I'm still not the divo. ~Mac

I don't have the luxury of second guessing myself today. If I'm wrong, may I take that shoe Nog and Brinn are still probably chomping on to this day.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I don't have the luxury of second guessing myself today. If I'm wrong, may I take that shoe Nog and Brinn are still probably chomping on to this day.

French Fries with that?

[Aganzir]

There are 10 of us alive, plus phantom. In the worst case we lynch an innocent, I kill an innocent, and the wolves kill an innocent. It would mean there are seven people alive tomorrow (plus phantom), two of whom critics and one cobbler. So three against four (or five). Of course the diva/divo could come out then which would even the things a bit.

Mith I think I'd like to kill Cailín.

[Mithalwen]

Is that your final decision?

[Kath]

I don't know that I think Mac is necessarily the most suspicious person toDay. I still like sally's analysis of Cailin/Eomer and I think they're more suspicious. Mac is jumping down everyone's throats which does say 'something to hide' though.

Therefore:

++CAILIN/EOMER

I'll be around til the deadline anyway but I am distracted so I thought I'd better get that in now.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Is that your final decision?

Yeah.

[Macalaure]

Sally 2 (Gwath & me)
Mac 3 (Boro, Agan, Lari)
Gollum 1 (Shasta)
Cailineomer 1 (Kath)
Gwath 1 (Cailin)

Left: Sally, Gollum

[Kath]

Oh wait - if Agan is just going to kill Cailin/Eomer anyway I guess I need to make more of a useful vote. I'll have a think and then retract.