T-I-G LV Sing when you're winning

[Boromir88]

Call me crude, but it is the lynching that matters. And we would have lynched you, as you very well know.~Cailin

Difference in philosophy is no reason to lynch someone.

Perhaps this is due to personal experiences: every time another villager has defended me in the past, especially when I was Gifted, it turned out this seemingly helpful person was a wolf

Now that is a reason, but take a look at all the "evidence," so to say, not just your one piece of personal experience.

We have Fea and her interaction with others, which, I admit, don't provide us with much information though.~Agan

Fea's interaction with people may not be totally useless. In Mith's Midsummer village (I think the 2nd one), I was seer, Fea wolf. I dreamt Fea night one, and she incriminated Kuru (posting "I love Kuru"), Night 2, I dreamt Kuru wolf.

Now, as Fea and Kuru were two tough players who would not escape the seer dream for long, I recall her plan being to distract the village as much as possible from the 3rd wolf (Lalaith) a submarine/unlikely seer dream. So, given the other singers Fea is with her strategy now could be different.

However, don't take who she interacted with, and what she said lightly, particularly on Day 1. She is more than willing to give out clues to her other partners, just as she is likely to incriminate innocents; depending upon who her other partners in crime are. If it's a high-seer dream singer, like Kuru before, she would love to interact with him. If it's a submarine she might say a couple things about them, or not mention them at all.

In Kuru's case too, that was planned by both of them, I doubt Fea would do that to a fellow wolf without consulting first. I know when saying this, I virtually have just incriminated myself, but I have had no night time discussions with Fea, accept it or not that's your prerogative. And I would not follow that strategy, I'm more of the, throw my fellows under the bus for self-preservation. To the point where I will build a massive case against all my buddies.

I'm here until deadline, so I'm going to scour through Fea's Day 1 posts and see what she has said about each player.

Edit: xed with everyone since sally's post

[satansaloser2005]

....first because they have the least posts and are thus the easiest. Unfortunately I can't promise a post-by-post analysis of everyone because I usually find that tedious. Besides, everyone else is doing them. I like being different.


Well, I have little time today to even read the thread properly, but there is no direct need for that, since I already know exactly where this game is going just by glancing at the player list:

Originally Posted by Cailin/Eomer

Cailín’s frustration will slowly rise as the phantom and Feanor of the Peredhil talk in riddles and special sign language that no one else really understands, but at least Sally and Boromir88 will pretend they do. This will lead to much dramatic arias on her part, but somehow she cannot help listening to their advice until Day 4, when - in a rebellious fit - she will turn on these self-proclaimed leaders of the theatre and try to get the phantom lynched, who will still be alive by some cruel twist of fate. This will be successful (naturally), but the phantom turns out to be just another ordinary Singer and TGWBS, whom she claimed she’d trust till the end of times, will proceed to kill everyone with merciless reviews in cave-man grammar.

It is also clear that I shall win this competition. Great range is all well and good, but being two-gendered is well… operatic! Still, best eliminate:

++NOGROD

Because the extent of his indecisiveness could lead to problems later on.

I suggest you keep me alive, because I predict my mental breakdown is truly going to be something tragic. Good to be with you all.

Essentially joking, fine by me. Votes for Noggie, who at the time had no votes and wasn't in danger of lynch at the time, but could have been a lead for the other baddies, or of course an attempt to start a bandwagon in general. It seems like a rather random (excessively random, rather) vote to me, which is confirmed in their next post.

Originally Posted by Cailin/Eomer

Good day, my pretties.

I am truly sorry about what happened to Nogrod and wish I had not voted for him. I already regretted it when I pressed that fatal Submit Reply button, but I was afraid to invoke the Mother Mod Goddess' wrath by retracting and casting another random vote. It was a foolish decision, especially since I still need to ask him a favour. My manly half was not please with the executive decision either.

(Eomer: "Kill Sally, she deserves it")

That's the longest I ever spent apologising for a vote (to Nogrod, not necessarily to my fellow contestants whom I care somewhat less about). This means I'm sincere.

Our Opera Ghost's reputation is apparently so divine that he actually became so. Interesting decision.

The most sensible person today seems to be Brinniel. I agree with her comments on the Menel-wagon. I'm sad he had to leave us, a great voice and marvellous talent.

Allow me to translate. "Oh, I knew Nog was innocent but I had to lynch him anyway. (Cailin, not Eomer. Eomer was unhappy with her decision, she says.) Oh, and kill Sally, by the way. No reason, it'd just make Eomer happy. Okay, I'm done apologizing about Nog now. Phantom's cool. I agree with Brinn about Menel's death being a mistake."

So where are her actual statements? They're italicized. Well, it's italicized, because there's only one thought that isn't a one-off, by the way sort of theory or accusation. This concerns me.

Originally Posted by Cailin/Eomer

People.... Day 2 and 9 pages of chatter... I had forgotten how garrulous you all are.

I am pretty much convinced Gollum is innocent and hope a more suitable lynching candidate shall be found. Instead, I am becoming wary of Sally, whose voting behaviour is suspicious (yes, I did think the last minute doubts were odd) and her response to accusations and remarks directed her way is just... Well, she has always been a remarkably fluffy player, of course.

Can I also ask what the point of Ilya's astounding collection of quotations is?

As for the many other players, be assured that I am watching you. In a non-phantom, but actually having the power of a vote-way.

"Randomness. Gollum shouldn't be lynched, let's find someone else. Oooo, how about Sally? Her voting is suspicious, especially when she tried to rectify the double lynch situation. And she doesn't ever say anything concrete, so she must be evil. Ilya, why the heck did you post a bunch of quotes? Trying to look helpful? It's not working. Bugger this. I'm watching the lot of you."

Okay, so still on the "Lynch Sally" train. Fine by me, as at least now they gave (sort of) an explanation for why they suspect me. But why isn't Gollum suspicious? Tell us your opinion instead of just saying "do this, do that, make the happy couple happier". I do agree about Ilya's post, but this is kind of a moot point now as she's dead. Meh. I've got my eye on you two too.

Originally Posted by Cailin/Eomer

Do we have seven villains? That was one of the craziest things I've ever seen in Werewolf.

Well, Eomer here. Apparently I am playing today because a certain someone is busy and important.

I had just said to Cailín last night that, while the village won't be too happy with our lack of contribution, at least they wouldn't kill us on the off-chance that we're a submarine Critic - not when there's this whole Fea and Aganzir situation. A case to answer, and all that. It would be mad. I'm sure *censored for Mith's sanity* would agree.

I suppose we need to assess that 7 in a row and decide who the players and the pawns are. I think our critics are staring us right in the face.

I'm assuming they're kidding about analyzing our contingency of *censored for Mith's sanity* voters. Mainly because they never did. Also, it seems to me like they (well, he in this case, but still....) are happy to remain quiet and watch the Fea and Agan fireworks show. Pretty much a "oh, goodie, I can get away with my sneaky semi-silence a bit longer).

Originally Posted by Cailin/Eomer

I think Eomer once again managed to confirm the extent of our natural innocence.

Nothing but excellent play from the Netherlands.

Random bit of fluff. Yay.

Originally Posted by Eomer/Cailin

I hate you all so much.

Another bit of fluffy fluff. Always a fun choice.

Originally Posted by Cailin/Eomer

I do not see why either of the two ladies should see the light of Day 4. If we are wrong and the lynch results are disastrous, we can blame the Short Wild Guy for categorising carelessly. If Fea is guilty, the reasonable thing to do is to lynch Aganzir the day after. If Miss Peredhil is not guilty (which pretty much everyone agrees is not very likely), we shall still be nervous about Aganzir till the end of our days. Let's clean this mess and catch up on those critics.

++Aganzir

Not to say that her Mac analysis was not spectacularly elaborate. If there is considerable opposition to a double-lynch, I would naturally rather hear Fea's final aria.

"Kill Fea and Agan. Both. Now. I'll help." Pretty straightforward. No matter what happens, she wants to see Agan die. Now the thing is that they could know that Agan was innocent if they were a critic, but there's only one way that they could know about Agan being a soulmate (I'll get to the significance in a minute) and that's if they are Walter. *dramatic music* Obviously Fea is already doomed by this point so the natural baddie course of action is to try to take someone (read, an innocent) down with her, particularly one who will unleash another innocent to kill....well, another innocent, most likely when their lover/soulmate is Joseph Bouquet'd by the mob. I'd give it a pretty good bet that we may have just found our Walter.

Originally Posted by Cailin/Eomer

Huhm. The phantom predicted that I would die Night 4 without leaving a trace. This seems now quite plausible, and we all know that he is somewhat psychic.

Gollum is innocent. Sally is evil.

This shall be my epitaph.

Well, the leaving a trace is sort of true, as their suspicions are never really explained. Why is Gollum innocent? Why is Sally evil? Even so much as a "I have a bad feeling about them, a bad vibe" would be better than a consistent "I know what these two people are, let's save/kill them (respectively)".

Originally Posted by Cailin/Eomer

Let me restate my reasons for my Agan vote:

I trust TGWBS would not leave us with ambiguous hints or information. This means that either he did not know any critics / cobblers by his time of death and just thought of Fea and Aganzir as the most suspicious characters, or he happened to peg two sinister characters in two nights. Rereading his posts, I can see why there are many around who are unwilling to risk assuming the second - Wild Guy seems uncertain and especially on Day 1 he acts unconvinced of Fea's guilt.

However, if Fea is guilty, I do not think we can risk it to keep Aganzir alive. Of course, Guy may not have dreamt of either, and his categorisation could have been just a reasonable and astute guess. Fea's guilt would not prove Aganzir's guilt, and Fea's innocence would only imply that TGWBS did not dream of any evil persons. In that case only can I see Aganzir survive another day, yet she would still be eligible for lynching in the future (her voting record is not very favourable, either). Perhaps that is enough for most to shrink away from a double-lynch. In my opinion, we have little to lose from it: the ordinary, yet talented singers get to kill two highly suspicious characters, while the critics can only eliminate one potential-gifted or innocent.

I can envision scenarios in which the double-lynch would turn against the village. However, I am feeling bold and reckless.

I think TGWBS dreamt Fea. I don't think TGWBS dreamt Fea. I think Fea's evil. I'm not sure if Fea's evil. But either way, Agan's a critic. Interesting too, that they refer to Agan as a potential gifted, yet later (I'll get there in a minute) they say they say they had no idea Agan could be a gifted. Backtracking? Perhaps. And again, I don't mind if they go after me with no reason (I'm innocent, not gifted, so I'm dispensable as per usual) but if they are in fact Walter and did in fact spy on Agan, they would (assumedly) know that she was a soulmate (or at the very least, that she was innocent, and they're bright enough to have between them picked up the connection between Agan and Bowie) so as I've said before, all the more reason to get rid of Agan.

Originally Posted by Cailin/Eomer

Cross-posted with Fea's ambiguous retraction and suicidal vote. I'm not going to judge her motives, because we shall find out soon enough. It does not necessarily make me feel better about either girl.

"Not going to talk about Fea, but this still makes Agan look suspicious." Bwah? I'm just saying. That they're not. Saying anything, that is.

Originally Posted by Cailin/Eomer

That was unexpected.

Boromir seemed to think Aganzir was gifted, yesterday, but then she denied it. Well, I am glad that we do not have to waste another lynching opportunity - I was quite disappointed that Fea and Aganzir were not killed in one blow, but now it is evident that TGWBS did not dream of both after all and we can maybe find a known innocent in his posts (though I doubt it will be obvious enough for us to fully trust such a hint).

I will have a look through some of the previous posts now that we have some more information, though I'll leave analysing Fea's contributions to someone less prone to frustration.

"Oh wait, let's not kill Agan now, she's a gifted." Aka, crap, my plan is foiled. Also says it is now time to look through TGWBS' posts to find a known innocent, but doubts we will find one clearly defined. Says they will look through posts, but not Fea's, as they don't want to get frustrated.

Originally Posted by Cailin/Eomer

I am not so sure about Boromir.

I still maintain that a double-lynch yesterday was the rational thing to do, and that it would only have worked against the village in case of a gifted Aganzir (and it turns out that she is indeed gifted and able to prove it). However, had she not been gifted, but ordinary, we would still have lynched her today and wasted valuable time in finding the critics.

An elaborate defense of Aganzir without knowing her role sounds like Cobbler-ish behaviour... Everyone knows that had she not been the soulmate, the village would have been obliged to lynch Aganzir, simply because the Seer's legacy is the closest thing to evidence a village can have.

Perhaps this is due to personal experiences: every time another villager has defended me in the past, especially when I was Gifted, it turned out this seemingly helpful person was a wolf (I remember an occasion with our lovely TGWBS and me wasting my Ranger powers defending his lycantropic skin every night) and we are all so easily won.

I have no intention to take the phantom's proposed leap of faith here.

So now Boro's evil because he trusts Agan? Okay, good to know you think so. Now I understand the logic behind this, but Agan seemed very innocent to me as well and I would have/did argue against her lynching yesterDay. Then again, I'm automatically suspicious to them too, so my opinion shouldn't come into play. BUt they still think that lynching Agan yesterDay would have been a good idea (though they admit that, knowing that Agan was gifted, it would have ended poorly. But if she'd been an ordo it wouldn't have been a loss. Define this, please. Every ordo is a loss, even if it's just in numbers.) Doesn't trust Boro.

Originally Posted by Cailin/Eomer

Naturally I am disappointed in my critical reading skills that I failed to recognise you as a Gifted, but it is easy to read posts in a certain way in hindsight. You would have been equally opposed to a double-lynch had you been a nasty critic, and even more so were you the Cobbler, of course.

And I am not twisting the truth. I do not necessarily count discussion as very productive in finding critics. Call me crude, but it is the lynching that matters. And we would have lynched you, as you very well know.

People leave traces in discussion, too, you know. Yes, lynches are important, but I often find wolves by their posts, not necessarily just their votes. This, at least to me, makes the lovely couple sound even more evil than before.

Aganzir, I am sorry you fail to see my meaning and the rational, mathematical thought process that informed my decision. Macalaure is obviously on the same page, but I do not trust him either.

Do not let your personal disagreement with me cloud your judgement.

I don't see the thought process behind their vote, in point of fact. They suspect Agan for....some reason, and stick to it throughout, but don't really seem to have a reason. And how is Agan disagreeing? Well, I suppose, being on opposite sides of the game, yes, she is disagreeing. Point taken.



In short, Cailin/Eomer have suspected/'cleared' a handful of people with absolutely NO discussion on most of them, and spotty cases for/against the rest. I think they are a critic, or at the very least (and most probable) they are Walter. And since Walter is greatly aiding the wolves, not just in numbers but in information, I would prefer to get potential Walters out of the way before they pass along any more information.

In even shorter, I want Cailin/Eomer dead. ToDay.


EDIT: x'd, but not really, as I checked for more Cailin/Eomer posts.

EDIT #2: Oh, I did X after all! With Boro.

[Boromir88]

Very nice, Boro. It's something I would have done were it not for the fact that my highest calling was to court death and thus prove my divine status.~tp

I was wondering when someone was going to catch that. hehe. And the "sneak in the first post" bit too was deliberate choice of words.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I was wondering when someone was going to catch that. hehe. And the "sneak in the first post" bit too was deliberate choice of words.

Well, I'm stupid. I was actually suspecting you might be the devo (based on a comment you made yesterDay I believe) but wasn't sure if you were bluffing or real, and if the critics didn't catch it I was just going to let them try and kill you and have a nice surprise.

[Cailín]

What I meant, Agan, is that I did not consider it very likely that you were a Gifted and especially read your response to Boromir88 as evidence that you were not. In hindsight I see that your reply is ambiguous. I took your defense as either the irrational behaviour of the ordo who does not want to die, or the tricksy words of a villain who wished to buy the critics an extra night.

Difference in philosophy is no reason to lynch someone.

I do not understand your comment, Boro. I can assure you I would have lynched Aganzir for other reasons than difference in philosophy.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Sally

Thanks for the tip, love. Unfortunately, it was my entire computer that crashed, not the internet.

Poor you.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And who would she suggest?

I'll better not tell.

Aganzir, did it occur to you that your kill choices consist only of people who wanted to kill you yesterday? Please, look elsewhere, too. I know I'm not a critic, and I highly doubt that Cailineomer is/are.

Originally Posted by tp

He wanted to plant the idea with the Wolves from the beginning that he was Walter, thus decreasing his chances of dying and increasing the chances that the real Walter would be done in.

I need to read people's posts more closely. I was just going to wonder whether he was the cobbler, but that hint is too obvious (if noticed). I guess we can now assume that the critics know his identity (unless the cobbler didn't see the hint either). With the soulmates still out there, it's explicable why the wolves abstained from an ordo.

(PS: I'm not yet on the new page, getting there....)

[Cailín]

Allow me to translate.

Your translation skills leave something to be desired.

Admittedly, I have been playing this game with the cruel disinterest of an ordinary villager with too little time on her hands. So disinterested that when I saw the bandwagon for Legate, I posted before actually realising that he was not playing and the whole thing was staged.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm not going to quote all his posts because one is huge and ungainly (and complete rubbish, if you don't mind my saying, mostly just quotes and summaries, which I do too but at least I give my reactions to the quotes) and the rest are essentially one liners. So....

My case against Gollum:
*doesn't post much. Not inherently an evil trait, but we know he could post more, or at least post more little posts saying who he suspects/trusts as opposed to spending a lot of time on a Mac post which tells us nothing.
*doesn't vote. Period. Seriously, he hasn't voted all game (unless I magically X with his vote, that is). Which brings me to....
*his lack of vote on Day One. He could have prevented the double lynch (between two innocents, as we now ALL know) but sat back and refused to vote. We know he was here, we know he could have saved at least one of the lynchees (although I know what a difficult decision it would have been to pick one, but an effort is always appreciated) but he did nothing except comment on the situation.
*supported yesterDay's double lynch, and questioned Gwath about why he thought it was a bad plan. Again, not inherently evil, but worrying.
*isn't following the game terribly well. I don't mean to be rude, as I know I've been fairly complacent too, but it seems like we have a Gil on our hands, except it's a Gil who posts. (Not saying there's anything wrong with Gil, but you all understand the reference.) I generally (again, generally) don't want to kill people for not posting, but in this case I've got enough of a bad feeling that it tips the scales for a ++Gollum to seem like a very good idea. (Not on a separate line, not bolded, so not a vote, fyi.)


Lyrics for Gollum (I'll post some for Cailin/Eomer if a good idea comes to me)

Dancing through life
Skimming the surface
Gliding where turf is smooth
Life's more painless
For the brainless
Why think too hard?
When it's so soothing
Dancing through life
No need to tough it
When you can sluff it off as I do

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Your translation skills leave something to be desired.

Admittedly, I have been playing this game with the cruel disinterest of an ordinary villager with too little time on her hands. So disinterested that when I saw the bandwagon for Legate, I posted before actually realising that he was not playing and the whole thing was staged.

Yes, of course I realize that your post regarding Legate was a joke (maybe I didn't specify that, for which I apologize) but my other points still stand.

[satansaloser2005]

Not to be defensive, but Gwath's vote makes no sense. He even says it's random, and I'm always wary of super-random votes at this stage in the game. Of course, I'm also biased, but I thought I would point it out. I'd love to analyze Gwath, but I know I won't have time, so I'm going to go on to other things.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Yes, of course I realize that your post regarding Legate was a joke (maybe I didn't specify that, for which I apologize) but my other points still stand.

Sally, I said it was not a joke. Eomer took the bandwagon seriously and found it highly suspicious. I took another look and realised it was a joke on your part, but Eomer had already posted. I know, how embarrassing for him.

Your other points fail also. I suspect Gollum is ordinary for meta-game reasons. I constantly accuse you... just because I enjoy it. But I guess that with your werewolf philosophy that might not have been a very diplomatic idea.

I have no intention to refute your points. Most of your arguments are just misinterpretation, and I already explained in detail why I pushed for a double-lynch yesterday.

[Macalaure]

Sally's analysis of Cailineomer is grossly biased, but she does have some points that point towards Cailineomer being the cobbler. Critic? No. There's not much more relevant information that the cobbler could pass at this point, so I'm still not really for trying to go after them, unless we can't get a better idea of which two to kill with our two stones.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by sally

there's only one way that they could know about Agan being a soulmate (I'll get to the significance in a minute) and that's if they are Walter.

Or if Walter had spied on me early enough for the information to reach the critics.
The thing I still don't understand is why Cailín would rather let Fea than me live. Tgwbs was after her all the time and hardly ever even mentioned me, apart from writing my name next to hers. One would imagine he was more certain about her.
And I'm not buying her 'she could be a distraction later' explanation.

Anyway thanks sally. I skimmed through their posts but came up with nothing I could add to your analysis.

Originally Posted by sally

I was actually suspecting you might be the devo (based on a comment you made yesterDay I believe) but wasn't sure if you were bluffing or real

It occurred to me too but I thought it could also be a cobbler hint. I didn't catch the things in his first post though.

Originally Posted by Cailín

What I meant, Agan, is that I did not consider it very likely that you were a Gifted and especially read your response to Boromir88 as evidence that you were not. In hindsight I see that your reply is ambiguous. I took your defense as either the irrational behaviour of the ordo who does not want to die, or the tricksy words of a villain who wished to buy the critics an extra night.

Thank you - at least now I understand what you were talking about. However I still don't know why you took "I doubt anyone would believe me even if I said I was a gifted" as a proof that I wasn't.

Originally Posted by Mac

Aganzir, did it occur to you that your kill choices consist only of people who wanted to kill you yesterday? Please, look elsewhere, too. I know I'm not a critic, and I highly doubt that Cailineomer is/are.

Yes, it did. However the certainty of my own innocence is all I have, and I know that anyone who questions it is wrong, either intentionally or accidentally.
Also, it would be hard to find people who didn't think I should be killed yesterday.

But if it comforts you, I am looking elsewhere, too, and I also said that I'm open to suggestions.

edit: xed with some sallys, Cailín & Mac

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Sally, I said it was not a joke. Eomer took the bandwagon seriously and found it highly suspicious. I took another look and realised it was a joke on your part, but Eomer had already posted. I know, how embarrassing for him.

Your other points fail also. I suspect Gollum is ordinary for meta-game reasons. I constantly accuse you... just because I enjoy it. But I guess that with your werewolf philosophy that might not have been a very diplomatic idea.

I have no intention to refute your points. Most of your arguments are just misinterpretation, and I already explained in detail why I pushed for a double-lynch yesterday.

Sorry, I meant in retrospect. I'm really tired today and am horrible at putting two (or in this case more) words together.

Anyway, I tried to go through Shasta's posts and found....well, a whole bunch of nothing. Where is he, anyway?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Boro

And the "sneak in the first post" bit too was deliberate choice of words.

Ha ha! I forgot to point that out. That was my favorite bit.

Originally Posted by Mac

I was just going to wonder whether he was the cobbler, but that hint is too obvious (if noticed).

That's the key- if noticed. If the Critics notice, but no one on the thread says anything about it, they are more likely to think they have spotted Walter. That's one reason I never said anything about it. In addition, at first I thought it was possible that he was the Seer or a Lover attempting to shield himself from the Night-kill. But now that the final Lover has been outed, his ploy can be clearly seen for what it is, so why not point it out to everyone and allow Boro to bask in the light of his quality plotting.

I guess we can now assume that the critics know his identity (unless the cobbler didn't see the hint either). With the soulmates still out there, it's explicable why the wolves abstained from an ordo.

So, you think he's been Walter-spied already? I'm not so sure. Maybe, I guess. But it's also a strong possibility that Walter viewed me and TGWBS on the first two nights. And we must leave open the possibility that Brin was viewed the Night before she was killed, simply because a Walter-spied-Ordo is the safest possible kill for the Critics to make (because they know that person is not the Divo).

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Your other points fail also. I suspect Gollum is ordinary for meta-game reasons.

You probably wouldn't mind sharing these meta-game reasons, then.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Sally's analysis of Cailineomer is grossly biased, but she does have some points that point towards Cailineomer being the cobbler. Critic? No. There's not much more relevant information that the cobbler could pass at this point, so I'm still not really for trying to go after them, unless we can't get a better idea of which two to kill with our two stones.

Biased? Heh. If you say so, kiddo.


The reason I've made such a big case against them is exactly because I think they're Walter. Remember that, in a way, Walter is almost more threatening than the wolves themselves. Without Walter, they're left to their own devices and are, to an extent, making blind kills. With Walter, they learn a role a Night and are able to kill off with more precision (if that makes sense, i.e. they may be able to know who the diva/devo is, thus who to avoid, and they may get the identity of gifteds, though that is now a mute point). So when I think I've found the cobbler, which I believe I have, I'm going to go after them. And I'm sure you believe that my bias is because they suspect me; I couldn't care less, as they really have no proof. I just pointed out their suspicion of me because it was so ludicrous, and do in fact note that I mentioned their suspicions of other people (or non-suspicion) in the same way.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Agan

The thing I still don't understand is why Cailín would rather let Fea than me live.

Au contraire, Agan, I said:

Originally Posted by myself

Not to say that her Mac analysis was not spectacularly elaborate. If there is considerable opposition to a double-lynch, I would naturally rather hear Fea's final aria.

[satansaloser2005]

My last post x'd with Phantom and Agan.


To Phantom: I concur. I'm guessing that either TGWBS was a lucky guess or he was Walter-spied, probably the latter. Boro I don't believe was. You I'm not sure about.

To Agan: Again, I concur. Cailin/Eomer, explain away.


EDIT: x'd with Cailin/Eomer.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Au contraire, Agan, I said:

But it doesn't make sense. She was suspected by the seer much more heavily whereas I had made an analysis you didn't find good. I have no difficulties deciding which one of those two I'd rather lynch.

Would you guys have anything against me killing Cailín?

[Cailín]

Aganzir, I thought your analysis of Mac was good. I said that if people did not want to double-lynch, we should obviously kill Fea.

Well, I can see where this is going. I can now happily say you are all fools and make you feel bad about yourself. At least I'm not the Divo.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

But it doesn't make sense. She was suspected by the seer much more heavily whereas I had made an analysis you didn't find good. I have no difficulties deciding which one of those two I'd rather lynch.

Would you guys have anything against me killing Cailín?

Actually I was about to suggest that. That way we don't waste a lynch (on the off chance that they're not guilty) but get rid of someone who's highly suspicious. I would prefer them over your other suggestion (Mac) as I suspect them more highly than him.


EDIT: again, x'd with Cailin/Eomer

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

You probably wouldn't mind sharing these meta-game reasons, then.

I did not say anything because I'm not sure if it is fair, but if I am to be killed anyway, I do not need to fear mod-fire. I got the impression from the thread that Gollum only confirmed participation long after I received the PM with my role. That would mean that Mith could have only still fit him in as an ordinary. Also, I believe Mith's choices were not entirely random.

[satansaloser2005]

By the way, 15 more minutes and then I may have to disappear. I'll hold my vote as long as possible, and may try to sneak it in after I have to start working (we're not really allowed on the internet during shifts, but I'll risk it ) but I'm just giving you all a heads up.

EDIT: x'd. Dude, we need to stop this x'ing thing. It's getting creepy.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Aganzir, I thought your analysis of Mac was good. I said that if people did not want to double-lynch, we should obviously kill Fea.

Whoops sorry, I've been misreading your post all the time, both sentences.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm fairly certain Mith's choices were in fact random, Phantom's special role notwithstanding. I'm just saying. Not that it makes a difference, but....meh.

Thanks for explaining, Cailin/Eomer.

[Kath]

I'm sorry I'm so late to the Day, I'd got myself confused on times. I wll be around up til the deadline from now.

Agan - 'hear Fea's final aria' means that Cailin/Eomer would rather Fea died. Final aria, as in last song, as in lynch her. Don't get caught up in that because it looks like a mistranslation on your part there.

That said, I read sally's analysis of Cailin/Eomer and actually I rather agree with a lot of it. Many of her points made a lot of sense, especially if you're looking for a Cobbler rather than a Critic. I disliked Mac's seeming dismissal of the whole analysis. The crux of his argument seemed to be that the Cobbler currently had no useful information so why kill them now, whereas I would view the situation as the Cobbler currently has no useful information so let's kill them before they get any.

That's it for right now, I've skimmed the thread and come up with this so far. I'll be around, make a few more posts hopefully, I need to go and read through more carefully first.

[Kath]

Ah and I cross posted with Cailin and Agan who have just sorted out that misunderstanding.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

So.

Based on what I've read so far, I think Gollum is the most suspicious. I'm probably losing my touch, though, based on my vote for our Seer earlier in this game.

Man, this DL sucks for me. I'm having to send this in the middle of class!

++Gollum

[Boromir88]

I do not understand your comment, Boro. I can assure you I would have lynched Aganzir for other reasons than difference in philosophy.~Cailin

Didn't say you would, just saying that's not a reason. You let your actions speak for themselves, Agan, I, and others like "talk" to work things through. Not to be arrogant, I'm not too good finding the first wolf (unless if it's by complete luck), but once one falls, I will say I'm a master at getting the others. So, now that one is gone, the wolves would be wise to get rid of me soon, and singers would be unwise to lynch me.

Fea's associations. I'm only looking at the singers we have no idea about (so this will most likely exclude tp, Agan, and anyone dead). Also, I will be excluding myself, it's your job to analyze me, not mine. Anything I say about myself will probably be biased anyway.

I say we try to host a trip-lynch (against Moddess's wishes) for me, Lariren, Gwath, and Boro. Oh, and Mac, for guilt by association. Oh dear, that's not so triple, is it? Woe are my math skill[z]...~Post 24

Calls for a trip, or not so trip-lynching of Lari, Gwath, Mac, and myself.

In her list in post 116...she says some interesting stuff about sally and Lari.

Sally - Typically seems more innocent than she seems now. So while I don't suggest that she's evil, I do suggest that she might be hiding something.

Lariren - Newbie. She can live a good long while unless she does something that is so obviously wolf-like that it would be foolish not to lynch her.

And then Mac:

Macalaure - A lover of epic proportion, he is willing to travel to the ends of the earth for his True Love. In game, though, he's probably not quite so cool.

Now what was interesting between sally and Mac on Day 1, both tp and Fea were trying to set them up as the two soulmates. Neither of them are, I doubt both are wolves, but it's possible that Fea was going with tp's plan, to help a buddy.

Her comment about Lari looks suspicious too - it's kind of like let her live for a couple days unless she does something completely wolfish, than it's ok to lynch her. To also add on, I remember in the following days, Fea was quick to agree with my statement that Lari made some brilliant analysis. Fea probably knew she was not going to last the entire game as a critic, so it's possible that she could be setting up and innocent Lari. But, also that quick agreement could have been a strategy to push my feelings that Lari was innocent for her excellent analysis.

Lari will be gone for most the day...correct? And based on this, I would in no way propose we lynch her today, just saying I aint giving her the free days anymore, and I'm definitely taking away those complimentary waffles.

Now with Cailin and Gollum, there's no statements of suspicioun/innocent/guilt at all. It's "Oh Gollum, you played in the very first WW! Talk more." And with Cailin is "Eomer taught me a lot."

Her list of who she wants to vote for on Day 1

Which leaves me with

Sally
Ilya
Brinniel
Gwath
Meneltarmacil
Gollum the Great

Ilya, Brinn, and Menel all innocent. That leaves sally, Gwath, and Gollum. It's possibly Fea would put a wolf here at the beginning, but she also had a pretty healthy list of those she wouldn't vote for, and there's no doubt in me, that one critic (if not both) would be in that list:

She says she won't vote for Lari, because she's a newbie. Lots of people were excluding Lari from day 1. But I think some more interesting things is her two pairings:

Shasta or Nog (I need boys around who think in a more streamlined manner than me)

Bowie or Mac (no warning bells a'ringin')

Nog and Bowie, both being innocent. Did she pair up one of her wolf partners (Shasta or Mac) with an innocent?

The rest of the day I believe is all the code talk business, primarily with tp and me. And her vote for Menel, I don't think there's anything there.

...I wonder if I'll have time for Day 2, but just some groupings as far as Fea's interactions.

Lari - Fea discounts her for being a newbie, and we shouldn't lynch her unless she does something entirely wolfish. This raises the suspicion, now that Fea is a critic, but not enough to go on. Plus, with Lari's absense, I want to wait for a response, pressure on, eh?

With sally and Mac she tries to follow tp, and pair them up as soulmates. Mac is a lover, and sally is hiding a secret, but nothing evil. Also with Mac, she pairs him up with an innocent Bowie on who she won't vote for on Day 1. hmm...

With Cailin, and Gollum, she says things about both of them, but nothing regarding suspicions or feelings (that is at least on Day 1). Maybe she didn't want to give anything away?

And with Kath, nothing stands out as far as what Fea has said. Can't determine anything

Fea said at least one thing about everyone on Day 1, so I think it's clear there's interaction there with her other wolf partners, and she is also probably trying to set up innocent people.

Based on the Day 1 stuff, I'm most suspicious of Mac and sally, followed by Lari and Cailin. For the reasons look above.

Edit: cross posted with everyone multiple times

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Cailín

I did not say anything because I'm not sure if it is fair, but if I am to be killed anyway, I do not need to fear mod-fire. I got the impression from the thread that Gollum only confirmed participation long after I received the PM with my role. That would mean that Mith could have only still fit him in as an ordinary. Also, I believe Mith's choices were not entirely random.

I am not going to confirm or deny my role selection methods or comment on roles but I perhaps should say that I had a reserve list of people who had missed the signing up deadline who were ready willing and able to slot in had the maybes pulled out. O

[Cailín]

So, before Sally or Aganzir carelessly kills me, I wish to make some more points (though you do not deserve the benefits of my great intellect, really).

The Critics would not have pushed for a double-lynch yesterday. They stood very little to gain, because the chance that Aganzir was either ordinary or the Cobbler was considerably higher than her being Gifted. In case of ordo-Aganzir, she would have been lynched today and the Critics would have gotten a free ride today, and an extra night-kill. Look for the Critics among those who led their comrade to the individual slaughter without a moment's pause.

The Cobbler will be harder to catch. I can only wish you good luck, you undeserving bunch.

Didn't say you would, just saying that's not a reason. You let your actions speak for themselves, Agan, I, and others like "talk" to work things through.

You misjudge me, Boromir. I am very fond of talking.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

The thing I still don't understand is why Cailín would rather let Fea than me live.

More people were going to vote for Fea. If one wants a double lynch, as they clearly did, one has to vote you.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Also, it would be hard to find people who didn't think I should be killed yesterday.

I meant in terms of a double-lynch.

Originally Posted by tp

But it's also a strong possibility that Walter viewed me and TGWBS on the first two nights.

But if they spied you, wouldn't they have gotten your actual role (and thus not go after you)? Mith?

Originally Posted by tp

And we must leave open the possibility that Brin was viewed the Night before she was killed, simply because a Walter-spied-Ordo is the safest possible kill for the Critics to make (because they know that person is not the Divo).

Possible, though I would say that the chance of killing the soulmate ranks higher than the risk of hitting the diva.

Originally Posted by Sally

Remember that, in a way, Walter is almost more threatening than the wolves themselves.

What? With the seer and the soulmates known to us? Surely not.


...crossposting since I don't know where...

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Kath

The crux of his argument seemed to be that the Cobbler currently had no useful information so why kill them now, whereas I would view the situation as the Cobbler currently has no useful information so let's kill them before they get any.

The only information left is the identity of the diva. Frankly, who cares? We need critics!

[Boromir88]

I won't have time to get into the rest of Fea's post, primarily because I'm most worried about Mac. (I guess you were right, I'm a vote for you that's just waiting to happen).

That double-lynch business just looks wrong. Now why would someone guilty propose it? It looks like a pre-planned strategy. They knew after tgwbs' death Fea was going to get it. So, how about they just cut their losses and try to get someone innocent lynched?

Why Agan then? Take a look at Fea's Day 1 interactions with Agan, it's very playful and fun, add on top of that tgwbs pairing Fea with Agan. The choice is clear - if Fea's going down, it shouldn't be hard to get an innocent Agan down with her.

If you're asking well if Agan was lynched with Fea yesterday and her role revealed, wouldn't Mac be in trouble for proposing it? Possibly, but I think that scenario would be easier to defend, because Agan wouldn't be here. Thus Mac can say - well hey look tgwbs left a confusing message? Why did he pair them together if he hadn't dreamt of them?

However, the plan backfired and today looks like some serious back-pedalling and damage control. But, I think the damage control actually started yesterday. When Mac tried to diffuse suspicion based on those who supported/didn't support/kind of supported the double-lynch.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Kath

Agan - 'hear Fea's final aria' means that Cailin/Eomer would rather Fea died. Final aria, as in last song, as in lynch her. Don't get caught up in that because it looks like a mistranslation on your part there.

Yeah I realised. And I should know what it means. However I kept thinking of it as her last song at the end of the game so that's why I got confused.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I'm probably losing my touch, though, based on my vote for our Seer earlier in this game.

Hey it happens to everyone. Probably more than one of us has been lynched as a gifted at some point of their ww careers. Just keep posting, right?

Thanks for the post, Boro. I'm liking you.

Originally Posted by Mac

More people were going to vote for Fea. If one wants a double lynch, as they clearly did, one has to vote you.

I said it because I had misunderstood Cailín's post. I do understand that, though.

Originally Posted by Mac

I meant in terms of a double-lynch.

Well I am not after you just because you suggested double lynching me, don't worry.

I'm feeling rather like killing Mac and Cailín today. It'd be awesome.

edit: xed with Mac & Boro

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Mac

But if they spied you, wouldn't they have gotten your actual role (and thus not go after you)? Mith?

But my role was "Opera Ghost". And they saw me, on Day 1, ask for my "Christine". So perhaps they would assume that the Lover pair was indeed Christine and The Phantom of the Opera.

Originally Posted by Mac

Possible, though I would say that the chance of killing the soulmate ranks higher than the risk of hitting the diva.

In that case, you and a couple others need to go back over Brin's posts, and see what might lead the Critics to believe they had spotted a lover. And more importantly, who would the Critics believe was her other half? For that person must be innocent.

[Kath]

The only information left is the identity of the diva. Frankly, who cares? We need critics!

We do need critics, but I don't see why it would be a bad thing to lynch the Cobbler, which seems to be what you are saying. If the Cobbler finds out who the Diva/o is then we lose the chance of a wasted kill attempt. If it takes us longer to find the Critics than we hope then having the chance of a wasted kill would aid us. Also they count against us in the good/bad tally so again if our numbers diminish too much it would be better not to have them.

[Mithalwen]

I am prepared ot give you the extra time if you want and close at half past since you have a lot to decide?


Any objections?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Kath

Also they count against us in the good/bad tally

Does xe? I don't think it has been said anywhere.

No objections to extra time Mith.