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"Then who would you take up with? A fat inkeeper who only remembers his own name because people shout it at him all day?" Strider |
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#401 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Oh wow.
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#402 | |
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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#403 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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I meant to add the more the merrier to that...
I'm at work, as an explanation for why I might post things like unfinished sentences. "And that's why I suspect" Um, Fea, who do you suspect? "Oh, sorry, somebody wanted to learn how EBSCO works and then somebody was trying to check out a copy of Ballet Shoes."
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#404 |
Beloved Shadow
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I wouldn't be surprised if TGWBS was Walter's Night 2 spying pick.
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#405 |
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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Fea, I actually find it rather amusing that the two people tgwbs listed as the most suspicious are analysing his posts now.
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#406 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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I agree, Agan. I'm vaguely counting the number of times he said to lynch both of us, rolling my eyes and wondering if somebody who won't be viewed as having a vested interest in this is also analyzing.
Phantom, as our resident ish-objective observer, you want to figure out what's what with us?
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#407 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Oh, I missed it- Lari's looking.
Good. I liked her last batch of analytic posts. They were so concise and informative. Awesome. That's my girl! (That said as the roomie who frequently proof reads her academic papers for her.)
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#408 | |
Beloved Shadow
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I'll still give it. But the news probably isn't good.
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#409 | |||||
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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In his first post he suggested driving Fea and phantom out with sharp iron because they cause headache, even if innocent. Killing tricksy folk was his policy throughout day 1.
He thought phantom spoke logic but added that he is tricksy. Phantom could be cobbler but he didn't believe so. Later he thought and hoped phantom was innocent. Of course it's possible he had dreamed of phantom and been told he's the opera ghost, it would justify hoping he's innocent. Dunno though. He was inclined to think also Boro and Nog innocent; didn't know what to think of Gwath and sally; thought I and Lari seemed reasonable; was wary of Mac (and Menel) who sounded too careful and found also Brinn's carefulness bad; thought Bowie seemed ok; was wary of Ilya but wanted to give her the benefit of doubt; and encouraged Shasta, Kath, Gollum, and Cailineomer to speak more. Of Fea he said the following: Quote:
He continued his Fea suspicions later: Quote:
Then he said he wouldn't vote Gollum whom he didn't know or Fea as it would be a wasted vote because the appetite to lynch her seemed small. Considered voting Kath. Eventually he voted Fea, saying even if she isn't a wolf, she deserved it (for speaking in code). He justified his vote by saying that lynching someone else than Fea would remove potential helpful input and lynching Fea would remove headache. After Kath had posted he said he was glad he hadn't voted her. Makes me rather sure he hadn't dreamed of her. He didn't like the Nog votes and suggested voting Fea, Menel or Mac. Retracted his Fea vote to save Nog. On day 2 he said the following concerning the revelation of phantom's role: Quote:
Then he analysed the voting. No opinion on Cailineomer. Not extremely wary about Mac. Suspicious of Gwath (defensive against Nog, speaks much yet says little and accuses Lari of the same). Suspicious of Fea for speaking much yet saying little and pushing bandwagon without being even suspicious of Menel. Didn't think Brinn looked very good because of convenient flip-flopping on suspicions, but her next post looked more innocent. Found Kath's words wise. Had no reason to suspect Boro and said he felt innocent. Was neutral towards sally. Found Ilya's throwaway-vote only mildly concerning. Worried of me for voting late despite being around, didn't like my suspicion of Mac (he had called my points against him good on day 1) and lynching Nog. Saw little reason to suspect Lari (I don't find the use of word see very important here given that there seems to be no reason he would have dreamed of an innocentish newbie this early). His conclusion was the following: Quote:
He said he was glad Brinn hadn't voted him or Mac, but he didn't like the Gollum suspicions either. Those were the three candidates Brinn had named in her post so I don't know if it means anything else but that tgwbs had changed his opinion on Mac. Then he posted a new list which wasn't that different from the first though. I'm going to quote it here anyway. Quote:
Voted Fea. I wouldn't be surprised if he had dreamed of Fea and found her guilty on night 1. Besides dreaming of her would suit a seer who be short quite well. Another option would probably be Boro whom he seemed to trust rather much. I don't know about his night 2 dream. Could be that it was Mac whom he found innocent - he had some suspicions against him on day 1 but on day 2 he seemed to think he was rather innocent. edit: xed with phantom
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#410 | |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Quote:
Any sane person who reads Jay's list of people to kill should automatically think "We really need to lynch Fea and Agan, stat." Because he frequently points to us as distinctly dangerous, voted for me twice (though retracted once), and said time and again, "Even if she's not a critic, she should still die." Regardless of my role, while analyzing his posts, I would argue that he didn't dream of me and merely wanted to lynch me because he always wants to lynch me. Either I'd be saying that as an innocent who knew that my schpiel was true, or I'd be saying it as a bad guy who wanted to manipulate the village by pointing out hypotheticals. I claimed jokingly on day one that I am a critic. It was suggested that any time I say on day one that I'm a critic, I must be. I am the single most suspicious villager at the time, and I should't expect to survive the Day. Sound about right?
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#411 | |
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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Quote:
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#412 | |
Beloved Shadow
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Possibilities...
1) Walter viewed TGWBS on Night 2. The info was received by the Critics last Night and they acted upon it. 2) The Critics came to believe on their own that TGWBS was the Seer. Implications of option 1- Fea would then be the likely Walter candidate, dreamed of on Night 1. But then who was the Night 2 dream? Critic Agan? An innocent Boro or Kath? But both Fea-Agan and Boro-Kath were listed in pairs as "most guilty" and "most innocent". Would TGWBS pair a certain with an uncertain? Unless his Fea vote was meant to separate her from Agan despite the pairing. Which opens up the possibility that I was his Night 2 dream. Implications of option 2- This would be possible if both Boro and Kath are innocent, but even more likely if Fea and Agan are both guilty. One on each list perhaps? Only if Fea is guilty, I would say. If he pegged only a guilty Agan, I can't imagine Agan being that touchy about it. Unless she feared that Fea was Walter, of course. Option 3, which I hope is not what happened- TGWBS, in order to remain hidden through the first couple days, gave no clear clues, or even incorrect clues, about his dreams. But through bad fortune Walter dreamed him and he was done in before he could tell us what we really thought. ![]() Option 1 strikes me as the most likely, largely due to TGWBS's statement on Day 1- Quote:
And if she is indeed Walter, I can see why she might spy him the following Night. And then that info gets passed on and he is slain the Night after. Unless of course he worded it that way because she is a Critic (to avoid detection). This would mesh better with the attempt on my life Night 2. For if she is indeed Walter, wouldn't she have spied me Night 1? And then the Critics receive her report, which I presume would read "Walter found Phantom to be- The Opera Ghost". And if that's what they received, why would they kill me? Surely they wouldn't think "The Opera Ghost" meant "Seer", and certainly not "Divo". They definitely wouldn't try and kill a supsected invincible Divo. Unless- they believed I was one of the Lovers, as I was indeed pretending to be. And they saw that I had asked for my "Christine" to step up, and so they believed that "Opera Ghost" was simply the designation for one of the Lovers. Thoughts? EDIT: x-post Agan/Fea
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#413 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Most guilty: Fea and Aganzir. Twice.
I mean, he certainly wanted me lynched, but that doesn't make it any less apparent that he thought you were quite a threat to the village. Which dream makes more sense: waste a dream on self-destructive nutjob Fea who will get herself lynched 'just in case' by day three anyway, or use a dream on a quietly dangerous lower-level threat who is likely to skate through without ever raising more than a trickle of suspicion? I know how I work as a seer. I'd never bother dreaming of myself. Or the phantom. I'd assume they'd die off without my bother. Nog I'd dream of. Agan, Boro, Brinn, Mac. Those types. The dangerous ones who are capable of standing off to the side of those who go down in a haze of gory.
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#414 | ||
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,911
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The seer did get a dream in night 1, didn't he?
tgwbs definitely didn't dream of the phantom in Night 1. This speaks clearly against it: Quote:
http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=113 There are a couple in here that he could have dreamt of and found innocent. If he dreamt of a baddie, it had to be Fea. He is not that clear about anybody else. The whole situation would make a lot of sense if Fea is the cobbler. If she is a critic, tgwbs would probably have died last night already. If she is the cobbler, the critics wouldn't have suspected tgwbs very much before, and only got the crucial information before Night 2. This fits into the mold: Quote:
http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=284 Options: he dreamt of me and found me to be the ordo that I am; he dreamt of Gwath and found him guilty (note how the end of the line about Gwath is the same as the end of the line about Fea). http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=286 He did not dream of Brinn. Kath and Boro could have been found innocent, but looking at tgwbs's posts from Day 1, I don't think those two are likely dreams. http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=300 Now he put me into the more suspicious lot, so he did not dream of me. If he dreamt of Boro, then he likely did so in Night 1 instead of Fea. What he says about Aganzir, along with him putting her on the same line with Fea, indicates that she has been dreamt of and has been found guilty. Since he was one of the failed Nogrod-savers, a dream of the most crucial Nogrod-voter would make a lot of sense. A dream of Gwath is less likely given his position in the list. Note that Boro and Kath are not on the same line: Kath has not been dreamt of. While he was suspicious of her on Day 1, he backed off it before the deadline. In #329, it sounds like tgwbs does think of Fea as a critic, not a cobbler. He does not pursue Aganzir the way he pursues Fea, which makes a dream of Aganzir less likely. http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=345 Then again, he keeps on writing their names on the same line... If it wouldn't be so unlikely that tgwbs dreamt of Kath, I would consider it possible that he dreamt of her and Boro and found them innocent. However, he definitely dreamt of Fea. Anything else is inconceivable. It is also quite inconceivable that tgwbs wrote one known-to-him baddie on the same line with an only suspected baddie. Therefore: Night 1: Fea Night 2: Aganzir *requests double lynch* I'm not surprised at all that Fea and Aganzir are so eager to be the first to analyse tgwbs... ![]() I have not yet read all the other analyses. I'll do that right away. |
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#415 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Psh. Nobody else seemed to be home but us...
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#416 | ||||||||
Laconic Loreman
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His first post of the game's an interesting one:
Quote:
Quote:
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His 113 post, is a list. There is a little more direct statement regarding tp: Quote:
He wants Fea lynched, for making his head hurt: Quote:
More wariness about Fea Quote:
Quote:
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My conclusion is his Night 1 dream did not find a critic, and it was tp. A highly likely choice, and tp was the only one he made moderately confident statements of innocence from the start of the day until the end. Onto Night 2 Edit: crossed with A LOT of people
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#417 | |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: The Pinnacle of my own might
Posts: 386
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Ummm.... Hi!
Ten thousand pardons for yesterday's absence, I was whisked away from the web and dumped elsewhere. Ok... so Brinn considers me susceptible of suspiciousness? Quote:
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#418 |
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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I'd dream of you before me, just because you're always so hard to figure out. And at least in the game we were wolves together you were rather a quietly dangerous lower-level threat than a self-destructive nutjob.
Yeah Mac the seer got a dream on night 1. I thought it was possible he had dreamed of you and found you innocent on night 2 although he put you to the suspicion category at first. It wouldn't get so much attention if he gradually moved you to the innocent lot. I don't know how likely that is though. I'm rather baffled about him writing our names on the same line. If he was equally certain about both of us, it'd mean he hadn't dreamed of either, but his constant suspicions against Fea indicate otherwise. edit: xed with Boro & Gollum
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#419 |
Laconic Loreman
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Maybe it's good that I have a long driveway to shovel today and am packed in a foot of snow, I might sit these early hours out and do some work - I can't be barricaded in my house tomorrow.
Anyway, I almost forgot about the possibility of finding WP. Which I agree with Mac, either Night 1 or Night 2 it was Fea. His vote on Day 1 could either be a statement of intent for his dream on Night 2 (Fea), or he spotted Fea on Night 1, not a critic, but the tricksy WP. And if Fea is Walter, it would make sense she would choose him the next Night, dumping the info to the wolves.
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#420 |
Beloved Shadow
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Hmm- am I hearing an echo?
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#421 | |||
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,911
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Seeing how desperate Fea is today, I'm even more convinced of her guilt. There is no astonishment like: "Jay was the seer?? Then why the §$%& did he think I was guilty all the time?". Instead, Fea is on the defense from her first post on.
Also: Quote:
Aganzir's analysis is tricksy. If she and Fea are in cahoots, she decided to let Fea go down and save herself. Quote:
I came, I saw Boro's analysis, I did not believe my eyes. Quote:
Edit: hmm... now you relativise it. |
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#422 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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People who tgwbs thought were suspicious: Fea, Agan, Gwath, Sally, Ilya, Mac, and Cailin. Though most suspicious of Fea and Agan.
People who tgwbs was guilty: Brinn, Mac on the first day Mac made an interesting point with the “I don't really understand why the wild man narrowed himself down to Fea and Kath in the end.” About tgwbs’s vote. I didn’t understand tgwbs’s reasoning then because he made this long post: "Wild Man make boo-boo. Great Mother-Goddess extent deadline. Ergo, real deadline now little under two man-hour away. Wild Man make following thought process: Not vote gollum, for not know him. Not know if quiet is normal. Kill him may waste ordinary life. Not vote Fea. Appetite for lynch Fea small. Therefore vote waste. Therefore Wild Man say to self: vote Kath! Now Kath come. Kath say she post again perhaps. Therefore cannot yet vote Kath." But he did want to lynch Fea and started on the whole Fea kick again yesterDay. But he did answer to the whole switching voting in this: "Read again post 137. Wild Man not say definitely not vote Fea - Wild Man refer to previous thought process, Wild Man unable decide who vote out of Fea, Kath, Gollum. Then, Fea come purposefully talk in riddle again, cause more headache. Therefore Wild Man vote Fea." Those two also have comments back and forth about if the roles in the game were random or not. Apparently, some were and some weren’t. I don’t think that matters much in the long run, but would Mith put Fea as a critic on purpose? Or would it be too obvious? But she is guilty, maybe not a critic, but the cobbler? Pretty much tgwbs’s wanting to lynch Fea the first day was headache and/or he believed her post about being a wolf(highly unlikely). But since he was the seer and seeing her tricks Day 1 he probably would have dreamed of her. And then he goes on a “lynch Fea” kick but also suspects Agan. It leads me to believe that, though we'll never know, he dreamed of Agan last night. It seems that Fea is guilty of something. It is interesting that Agan is always in the same place as Fea. To be honest I thought Agan was the seer(I feel like its ok to say that now, considering we know who the seer was) but nothing much else from her. Votes for either of them would be good for tonight. I just find it interesting the Brinn suspects tgwbs of being guilty for the past 2 Days and he turns out to be the seer. I think I may have lost my train of thought once or twice during this post. How many dreams did the seer get? I can't seem to figure it out. Edit: In my process of writing this it has been come redundant with all the cross-posting.
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Last edited by Lariren Shadow; 01-10-2009 at 02:26 PM. Reason: x-posting |
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#423 | |
Laconic Loreman
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Quote:
It's clear cut and dry, either it happened on Night 1 or Night 2, and Night 1 he didn't dream of a critic.
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#424 | |
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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Quote:
edit: xed with Lari & Boro
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#425 | |
Laconic Loreman
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Quote:
Did I say tgwbs was jumping out everywhere shouting wolf! wolf! wolf! No, but if he did he would lead clues to the wolf, not make statements that he doesn't know who any are.
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#426 | |||||
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Quote:
It is an ordo's duty to help the village catch a wolf. I understand that the village is all but obligated to lynch me today, just in case. I also understand that I'd go out much more happily if I knew that the entire day wasn't dedicated solely to saying, "But of course she's guilty," while letting the bad guys off the hook. Yes, darling, but I've only ever been myself, never somebody else. Quote:
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I find it hard to believe that anybody would support me. If I was playing werewolf with myself, I'd certainly lynch me based on the events of the past Night. Quote:
Quote:
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#427 | |
Laconic Loreman
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Quote:
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#428 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Fea:
As to why I thought Agan was the seer, it was a little comment from the first page actually: "Don't worry Gwath, thus far phantom is the only one who assumes he was dreamt of." It just stuck in my head.
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Last edited by Lariren Shadow; 01-10-2009 at 03:03 PM. Reason: xed with Boro |
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#429 | |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Quote:
You set yourself up for it.
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#430 | |
Laconic Loreman
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Quote:
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#431 |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: The Pinnacle of my own might
Posts: 386
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So... (still catching up) phantom is here just for fun now? And TGWBW is dead? *Groans* He was cracking me up with those incomplete phrases!
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#432 | |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Quote:
Versus you... now you're usually not so forgiving to me as oh, say... I am. So why the switch now? Unless you're trying to save me. If you can't, I say you... take advantage. If you follow.
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#433 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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I checked in around noon to see the kill but just now am able to post.
Wooooooooooow. Wild man be deaded. ![]() Okay, I'm going to pull up a vote post for you lovely people and look at tgwbs' posts myself a bit, though it seems it's being done to death (no pun intended) so I may just look his posts over and see what there is to see. Back shortly, I hope.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#434 | |
Laconic Loreman
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Quote:
You're just lucky the NFL playoffs have started.
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#435 |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: The Pinnacle of my own might
Posts: 386
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All right, I'm going to leave soon and might not be back for a while.
Looking good: Lariren (strikes me as doing just is best for the opera) Strongbow (nothing to suspect) and uhh, I'm being dragged off again. If I'm back before DL (which I probably will) I will vote. Hopefully. Have fun.
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'It just shows you how true it is that one-half the world doesn't knows how the other three-quarters lives.' Bertie, The Code of the Woosters, by P. G. Wodewouse
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#436 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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As if. I wasn't asking you to take a bullet for me, I was asking you to give one. At an opportunely vindictive moment.
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#437 | |
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
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My guess is that it's most likely the cobbler spied on tgwbs. The narration seems to slightly indicate it and tgwbs doesn't seem like a surprising spy choice to me. Of course I could be wrong, but that's just what I think.
It seems there is a good chance tgwbs dreamt of Fea and found her evil, whether as a critic or Walter Plinge. But even though he pursued her from Day 1, it doesn't necessarily mean he dreamt of her on Night 1. He could've simply found her suspicious then decided to dream of her on Night 2 only to discover his suspicions were accurate. And then there's the chance he didn't dream of her at all, which I really hope isn't so and I find less likely. Right now it looks to me the possibilities of his dreams were: Night 1: Fea Nogrod Boro Night 2: Fea Kath Boro tp Aganzir It is possible he dreamt of Agan and found her guilty, but only if he already dreamt of Fea. I certainly wouldn't be willing to bet a double lynch on it...especially since we can't even be 100% sure about Fea's guilt. Fea does look like the more guilty one since tgwbs pursued her more...but if he dreamt of both, maybe he found Fea to be a critic and Aganzir to be the cobbler, which could be why he made Fea his primary target. Or maybe she was just easier to target and in case he was killed, his persistence would leave a clear clue towards her guilt. I haven't actually went back looked at tgwbs's posts for myself yet, and I should probably do that. Quote:
EDIT: X-ed many times
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#438 |
Beloved Shadow
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Fea dear, if it was likely you were a Critic, I would actually try and save you. That way the Lovers would have a Critic target to take a shot at. There would be no pressing reason to be rid of you today.
Unfortunately, the scenario that appears most likely is Fea=Walter. And so logically we should lynch you, as it wouldn't be a good idea to risk yet another spying mission. So really, if you don't want to be lynched today, admit to or lie about being a Critic. ![]()
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#439 | |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Quote:
But I did that on Day One and nobody believed me!
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#440 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Does she admit it or do we blindly take her word from the first page that she is a Critic?
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Last edited by Lariren Shadow; 01-10-2009 at 03:58 PM. Reason: x-posting with Fea |
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