Tol-in-Gaurhoth L: Battle of the Fandoms

[Mithalwen]

Shasta did protect Kath that game however it ended up that due to technical and time zone problems the choice of Kath was mine alone. I don't think he had any input and I would be suprised if that was an issue here. Unless Boro is a wolf and is trying to frame me... while also proclaiming my innocence. Doens't really add up.

[Boromir88]

Well, Sally's doubts, to me, look just like what I would have been thinking, had I been around at the time - the truth is, there really wasn't a whole lot of solid reasoning behind the lynching, wolf or no wolf - it looked just like the typical "lynch the oddball on day 1" fiasco.~Rikae

Or a very successful strategy I used last village as a wolf...consistently suspecting my other partners but never voting for them.

I still don't like the looks of Boro. I like them less and less, in fact - he seems generally too smooth, as if he is trying to win allies

Why's that? Because I've said Mith and Brin are innocent? I've managed to suspect (in some way or another): Lal, Shasta, Nogrod, Mac, Nerwen, sally, and you. What's your list again?

[Nogrod]

Wow! Hopefully this will encourage people to lynch those who try to just slip through Day1 with nonsense in the following games. I mean if there would be that kind of general attitude the wolves (and innocents) would know they will have to actually play on Day1 as well and the game would become so much more interesting.

As I said yesterDay his playing style annoyed me but I was thinking of him as an ordo trying to get through Day1 as easily as possible to see whether he would get interested in the game later on.

Luckily many enough were ready to vote him off.


I'll summarise the few lists given here already to form myself a preliminary manual for where to look toDay.

McCaber, Isabell, Mac and Mith voted for CoD. Looking at the closeness of the race yesterDay it seems - like Brinn already commented - a bit unlikely there is a wolf among them. It's possible, to be sure but still...

CoD "suspected" Macalaure, Rikae and Boro. That was quite an early post and so he had no reason to believe he was going to get lynched. So it could be believable that those he mentioned were innocent indeed to whom he wished to point the discussion to go for. It's possible he put one of his fellows there to be sure but like Mac said it's improbable both of his mates are there and personally - at least for the time being I'm bending to think there are not even one of his mates there.

If these points are plausible - as working-hypotheses to begin with - then it would suggest that we could feel pretty safe with:

McCaber
Isabell
Macalaure
Mithalwen
Rikae
Boro

Nice list indeed. And I'd bet a lot against there being two wolves there.

So that leaves us with:

Nerwen
Feanor of the Peredhil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Nogrod
Gwathagor
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Brinniel
Lalwendë

And one or two wolves lurking there.

(Before anyone jumps on it: no, I'm not suggesting this is the final truth of the matter or think we should forget the above six and only notice what the rest say... No, no and no. I'm just trying to help myself to orientate and to see where to look in the beginning toDay.)

[Mithalwen]

I am afraid I am going th have to cut and run shortly - I do have to see the godchild so may be a semi random vote - hopefully which will turn out as well as the last one...

[Boromir88]

Nerwen
Feanor of the Peredhil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Nogrod
Gwathagor
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Brinniel
Lalwendë~Nogrod

You don't feel safe about yourself Nogrod?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I'm certainly not a wolf.

Okay, who's the next one to declare innocence?


But there are actually things in Brinn's posting I think merit a second look.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Anyway, do you really think I would kill someone on Night 2 thinking they're a possible seer just because they voted me?

I don't think anyone has said that. But if you're a wolf and saw Kath coming out of the blue just stating her suspicion & vote, you might think she could be the seer. And seers will have to go whatever the cost - even if it means the death of the seer frames one wolf. The seer is too dangerous not to be killed at the first possible instant.

Originally Posted by Brinn

honestly, the possibility that the seer would dream of me on Night 1 is the last thing I'd expect.

What you expect or don't isn't actually an argument in your favour in this case (or in any case). Why do you state that expectation? The more interesting part does begin right here.

So let's assume you're a wolf for the argument's sake. Now you realise that your trying to kill the seer backfired and you are exposed because someone guessed right the reason behind Kath's death. Understandably you feel an urge to purify your name and so you try to come up with every possible reason why the theory doesn't hold. Then you come up with a) I wouldn't kill someone for just voting me & b) and the seer wouldn't have dreamt of me anyway...

Now these surely might be things you could come up with and defend both of them. It's only that bringing them up together looks kind of fishy. I mean if you were an innocent you wouldn't probably think it that way, if you get what I mean.

And to add one small thing more; if you're an innocent why do you speculate about yourself being dreamt of in that fashion? If you're an innocent a seer dream means you're a known innocent by now. It's not something you should be afraid of or in need to convince others that has not happened - or that you would not expect that it has happened...

Ah yes, the ranger...I almost forgot. Perhaps that's why the wolves didn't kill those who I thought would be more obvious choices. Good point.

The classic, straight from the Werewolf handbook! Was it Hint #13 for tightening situations?

To open the Day by asking why Kath was killed and to leave an impression you had no idea is actually a sound wolf tactics as Boro already mentioned. Saying that you forgot about the ranger kind of underlines the very same thing: look at me, I have no idea why she was killed. But why would an innocent stress that so much? A wolf might feel the need to do that though...

And to add that classical "Good point" you try to help a common consensus to be built that the reason for Kath's death was her being a safe kill and not being one you thought was the seer...


Okay this is all very speculative. I admit it myself. But still it's my second best suspicion this far (Gwath still remaining my #1 at the moment).

It may be you Brinn have been framed. It may be Boro indeed is our cobbler and he has been grinning all the time he has read my post until now of course...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

You don't feel safe about yourself Nogrod?

Yeah... you know, slight schizophrenia and existential issues...

Actually:

Originally Posted by me

So that leaves us with:

So it was a general list... not my own list as such.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

McCaber, Isabell, Mac and Mith voted for CoD. Looking at the closeness of the race yesterDay it seems - like Brinn already commented - a bit unlikely there is a wolf among them. It's possible, to be sure but still...

CoD "suspected" Macalaure, Rikae and Boro. That was quite an early post and so he had no reason to believe he was going to get lynched. So it could be believable that those he mentioned were innocent indeed to whom he wished to point the discussion to go for. It's possible he put one of his fellows there to be sure but like Mac said it's improbable both of his mates are there and personally - at least for the time being I'm bending to think there are not even one of his mates there.

If these points are plausible - as working-hypotheses to begin with - then it would suggest that we could feel pretty safe with:

McCaber
Isabell
Macalaure
Mithalwen
Rikae
Boro

Nice list indeed. And I'd bet a lot against there being two wolves there.

I agree that those who voted against CoD are unlikely wolves, given, as you say, the closeness of the voting.

However, I'm inclined to be more wary of any lists of "suspects" that wolves produce, no matter what point in the game they occur. I'd bet that there's at least one wolf in that group. CoD doesn't seem to be the most sophisticated player (correct me if I'm wrong), and "suspecting" a fellow wolf is about as straightforward a wolf tactic as there is. But since we've exonerated Mac (since he was instrumental in lynching CoD), that leaves Boro and Rikae.

Which one, I couldn't say.

Also, Nogrod, could you explain your suspicion of me yesterDay? As far as I can tell, it's mostly groundless and exaggerated, compounded by the fact that you spent several posts fishing for other votes against me - which, of course, looks like a wolf trying to start a bandwagon.

That's all I've got for now.

[Mithalwen]

Gwath - do not underestimate Captain of Despair. He has a formidable mind as anyone has RPGed with him will tell uyou . His bold move didn't work this time and he doesn't play a lot but he does not lack sophistication.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

So I went back and looked (my Time-Turner finally came! Yay!), and in regards to my vote for Boro yesterday... what I thought was suspicious yesterday is in actuality more fluff. I thought I saw an indirect attack on both Rikae and Fea, but it doesn't look so much like that now.

...Which leads me to believe that it was Boro's latent phantomic tendencies ("hijacking" a discussion? Really?) that caused me to vote him.

In all seriousness though, I'd like to apologize to Boromir (and I absolutely hate having to apologize, it gives me indigestion, seriously!) because my vote yesterday was basically unfounded and may or may not, in fact, have had something to do with the outcome last time we clashed. Sorry, I'll do better in the future.

(And it wasn't spite. )

Edit: X'd with Nog, Gwath, and Mith.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Also, Nogrod, could you explain your suspicion of me yesterDay?As far as I can tell, it's mostly groundless and exaggerated

Check my post #80 (second page, last post). It's quite compactly put there. It's not the the most solid case there could be, sure, but it's not bad as Day1-theories go.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Gwath - do not underestimate Captain of Despair. He has a formidable mind as anyone has RPGed with him will tell uyou . His bold move didn't work this time and he doesn't play a lot but he does not lack sophistication.

I am inclined to believe you on behalf of your greater experience. Of course, you could be a wolf as well.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Check my post #80 (second page, last post). It's quite compactly put there. It's not the the most solid case there could be, sure, but it's not bad as Day1-theories go.

Come on, Nogrod, you know what I think of Day 1 theories.

When I get back from dinner, I'll take a look at it.

[Boromir88]

It may be you Brinn have been framed. It may be Boro indeed is our cobbler and he has been grinning all the time he has read my post until now of course...~Nogrod

Nope, not the cobbler. I can see how you think that, I have been as Lal said "all over the shop." But my flippantness has innocent intentions, I like having fun and at least get people talking, especially on the slow Day 1's. Perhaps also some ego intentions, because I like the attention directed at me. However, you may start seeing a move to the more conventional Boromir as we are past Day 1 and in the serious stuff now.

My accusations against sally are completely serious, I think she was trying to pull the clever wolf ploy that has worked exceedingly well for me in my evil past. Also, I think Brin just sounds sincere and your "case" against her seems a bit forced. However, I will go back and do some re-examining on Brin if you consider taking a good look at sally.

Edit: Shasta, I apologize if you thought, I thought your vote was in spite. I did think it was a throw away and influenced by our last clash, but definitely not in spite. Thank you for the explanation.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I am inclined to believe you on behalf of your greater experience. Of course, you could be a wolf as well.

I fully admit I am not the worlds greatest success story as a wolf cf my reply to Boro today but I am not spo rubbish that I would have killed a packmate when there was a three way tie nearly up to the wire and a possibility of a late pact. If I were a wolf all the other three couldn't be ..all I would have had to do was pick a/the non wolf

[Boromir88]

I am inclined to believe you on behalf of your greater experience. Of course, you could be a wolf as well.~Gwath

To add to Mith's last post. If she was a wolf, there is no question in my mind she would have taken full advantage of the oppurtunity to lynch me yesterday.

[Mithalwen]

I may have said it looked like a spite vote - if so ..I am sorry to have caused offence but I just meant it as short hand for a vote influence by history/ retaliation whatever rather than just on the matters in hand.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Come on, Nogrod, you know what I think of Day 1 theories.

I do. But what you think about Day1 theories in general doesn't influence the correctness or incorrectness of any particular Day1 theory by anyone...

And believe it or not: I've been in a handful of games where indeed actual reasoning has gotten us a wolf on Day1. So you should give Day1's a bit more respect even if they oftentimes feel like randomized lottery.

The interesting fact is - just to say it aloud before going to sleep - that in villages where a majority thinks Day1's are hateful and stupid Day1's are the most random as no one really tries. And what follows from that they rarely offer too much hindsight even at the later stages if all people have done is banter and random-voting. In villages where majority goes all in from the earliest moments the Day1's are the most fruitful - and basically the ones where we have really gotten the wolves with brains and not by sheer luck.

Also it's clear that just whining about Day1's all Day1 is not actually playing them and that's unsporty and whatever. But most importantly it's good for the wolves as they can hide in the nonsense much easier than in the middle of arguments.

[Mithalwen]

Sorry this is not the semi random vote I expected but Shasta and Brinniel have quieted my suspicions a little and some such as Lal haven't reappeared. Nogrod still seems off ... still wouldn't be suprised if he were a cobbler.


However - I find Gwathagor's response, to my response on his "correct me if I am wrong" re Captain of Despair baffling. How that pointing out that COD isn't an unsphisticated thinker makes me a wolf is beyond me.

Especially since he just agreed with Nogrod that it was unlikely that a COD voter were a wolf.

Sorry got to go but will vote

++Gwathagor

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Also, I think Brin just sounds sincere and your "case" against her seems a bit forced. However, I will go back and do some re-examining on Brin if you consider taking a good look at sally.

Even if I don't get that "I'll do X if you will do Y" -kind of exchange (would you not do X if I'd refuse to do Y?), I do agree that it would be good if someone else also looked after Brinn and I'm indeed going to look at Sally tomorrow after I wake up.

My suspicions on Brinn were raised in fact on yesterDay already (Mac's points looked reasonable compared with my own feelings of her posting) but I thought they were too little to justify a Day1 lynch. But then when toDay I saw Brinn's posting I also remembered the things from Day1 and therefore felt it important enough to bring something forwards. I need to look back at the yesterDay's stuff myself as well with Brinn as I have toDay only looked at two posts from her toDay.

[Boromir88]

Even if I don't get that "I'll do X if you will do Y" -kind of exchange (would you not do X if I'd refuse to do Y?)~Nogrod

It's time for me to point out what you pointed out to me a little bit ago...

Actually:

However, I will go back and do some re-examining on Brin if you consider taking a good look at sally.~me

Didn't say you had to do it.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

However - I find Gwathagor's response, to my response on his "correct me if I am wrong" re Captain of Despair baffling. How that pointing out that COD isn't an unsphisticated thinker makes me a wolf is beyond me.

Indeed. Who could make that kind of a point? I mean had Mith lied someone would have caught her from it. I mean there must be a host of people who have played with CoD many times. I've played with him a few games and can only agree with Mith about his resourcefulness. And why would Mith lie about CoD's abilities or history, how could lying in that kind of matters help her in the first place?

So who could make such a point then (Gwath's point that is)?

Someone with really original, basically idiosyncratic thinking-processes?
Someone who writes without thinking?
A nervous wolf under pressure trying to mirror anything so that people would talk of something else than him?

I think Gwath is none of the two first ones.

I'm not sure I have all the possibilities there to be sure but at least now those are the ones that come to mind.


ADD: Point taken Boro. I stressed the ifand you stressed the consider... and they are not at the same level. So you're right (darn broken English...)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

How long until deadline...?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Which leads me to believe that it was Boro's latent phantomic tendencies ("hijacking" a discussion? Really?) that caused me to vote him.

Really?

[Lalwendë]

Wolf Feint Theory
If CoD was nominated by one of his fellow wolves as a feint, then it didn't work. And if that was the case, then whichever one of them did it should be clear, because they obviously weren't around at the deadline to save him. That should be easy to work out. There's Mccaber, Isabellkya, Mith and Mac. Any of those not around at deadline should be suspects, going by that hypothesis.

Boro cannot be a wolf or he'd have jumped onto one of those bandwagons to save CoD and not randomly voted for moi. He gave no reason to be umming and ahhing and waiting til the end for nefarious reasons, he clearly had no clue.

If Brinn is the wolf then I'm certainly for it tonight. Though of course, if she is not, then I might be anyway, as this will for sure cast her in a bad light if I get wolf-mauled so making me ideal wolf food. Either way, I might be curtains.

Sally gets onto an anti-Boro bandwagon at a late stage which smells of wolf but is just too obvious a nudge at bumping his numbers up.

Why is Nogrod so keen on Gwathagor's guilt?

And don't think I've forgotten you, oh quiet ones.....

Anyway, that's it for now - wanted to post more but I was watching a load of films and now it's time for me bed. I shall pontificate on some more of all your behaviour in the English morning....

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Really?

Meaning...?

[Rikae]

I'm finding Lal's post a bit bewildering - perhaps I'm not the only one...

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

Wolf Feint Theory
If CoD was nominated by one of his fellow wolves as a feint, then it didn't work. And if that was the case, then whichever one of them did it should be clear, because they obviously weren't around at the deadline to save him. That should be easy to work out. There's Mccaber, Isabellkya, Mith and Mac. Any of those not around at deadline should be suspects, going by that hypothesis.

How could a wolf who had already voted for CoD save him at the deadline?

Boro cannot be a wolf or he'd have jumped onto one of those bandwagons to save CoD and not randomly voted for moi. He gave no reason to be umming and ahhing and waiting til the end for nefarious reasons, he clearly had no clue.

I suppose he wouldn't have been likely to do that, true. He could be a cobbler, though.

If Brinn is the wolf then I'm certainly for it tonight. Though of course, if she is not, then I might be anyway, as this will for sure cast her in a bad light if I get wolf-mauled so making me ideal wolf food. Either way, I might be curtains.

This I don't get at all. Why....?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Meaning...?

Meaning, "Really?"

Meaning, I'm questioning the sincerity and motive of your public display of affection.

I'm so sorry, Boromir, I'll never question you again, please forgive me for suspecting you even though enough others did that you were a front-runner for a lynching.

Either you're the seer and you dreamt of him (which I find rather unlikely) or you've got something up your sleeve. "My vote was unfounded..."

It was a first day vote. The only foundation you need for such things is "You seemed more suspicious than the rest." Even if by a negligible amount.

So why apologize so openly and so ostentatiously unless you want everybody to think that you must obviously be the seer who dreamt of Boromir and that you want to lay out a clear absolution of him?

Seers aren't that careless.

So yeah.

"Really?"

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And to add one small thing more; if you're an innocent why do you speculate about yourself being dreamt of in that fashion? If you're an innocent a seer dream means you're a known innocent by now. It's not something you should be afraid of or in need to convince others that has not happened - or that you would not expect that it has happened...

I'm not afraid of being dreamt of. If the seer wants to dream of me, then go ahead. Of course it's better if the seer finds wolves rather than ordos, but if they did dream of me at least they won't be left uncertain about what my role might be. I stated that I did not think I was dreamt of on Night 1 because that's what I honestly believe. I received a bit of attention yesterDay so maybe the seer has dreamt of me by now...but there's no way for me to know for sure.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The classic, straight from the Werewolf handbook! Was it Hint #13 for tightening situations?

To open the Day by asking why Kath was killed and to leave an impression you had no idea is actually a sound wolf tactics as Boro already mentioned. Saying that you forgot about the ranger kind of underlines the very same thing: look at me, I have no idea why she was killed. But why would an innocent stress that so much? A wolf might feel the need to do that though...

Okay, so I forget about the ranger and suddenly I'm a wolf? I was wondering about Kath aloud; it was one of the first thoughts that came up when I posted. Perhaps if I spent longer analysing I would've come to my own conclusions, but I spend long enough writing my posts as it is and usually at the beginning of the Day I just like to state whatever first comes to mind. And as for the ranger, it's a role I keep forgetting we have...there wasn't originally even going to be a ranger, but Durelin added it in last minute. Anyways, my brain must be skipping over all the general info of this game because I also didn't realise we had a cobbler until it was mentioned.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

However - I find Gwathagor's response, to my response on his "correct me if I am wrong" re Captain of Despair baffling. How that pointing out that COD isn't an unsphisticated thinker makes me a wolf is beyond me.

Well crap. I wasn't actually accusing you; I was just saying that while I was inclined to agree with you, you could theoretically be a wolf, and so I should take your point (however reasonable) with a grain of salt. That's all I was saying. I wasn't pretending to provide any kind of evidence.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Meaning, "Really?"

Meaning, I'm questioning the sincerity and motive of your public display of affection.

I'm so sorry, Boromir, I'll never question you again, please forgive me for suspecting you even though enough others did that you were a front-runner for a lynching.

Either you're the seer and you dreamt of him (which I find rather unlikely) or you've got something up your sleeve. "My vote was unfounded..."

It was a first day vote. The only foundation you need for such things is "You seemed more suspicious than the rest." Even if by a negligible amount.

So why apologize so openly and so ostentatiously unless you want everybody to think that you must obviously be the seer who dreamt of Boromir and that you want to lay out a clear absolution of him?

Seers aren't that careless.

So yeah.

"Really?"

How about "At least two people called my vote pure spite, and I don't enjoy people thinking I would be the type of person who does that"?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

How about "At least two people called my vote pure spite, and I don't enjoy people thinking I would be the type of person who does that"?

Okay. Wolf it is.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Okay. Wolf it is.

Why do I bother...?

[Isabellkya]

Oh Shasta, she baited you and you gobbled it up.

Okay, so I'm going to look at Nog today, and maybe Sally.
Maybe Boro as well.

Nog, because he has said a few things which went DING DING DING.
Also, because the ...relationship(?)... between him and Boro is a bit unsettling. Just seems to be a little too... buddybuddy.

Sally, because she seemed a bit contradictory; she said she was going to leave CoD alone, then continued to mention him in several posts following.

Boro, mainly because of his buddybuddy-ness with Nog.


For Durelin; what happens in the event of a tie?
Is the person who had the most first lynched, or the more recent one?


X'd with Shasta.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm sorry, I'm so sorry.


Major computer issues today, but I'm here now. I'm going to go look over posts and see what there is to see.



Kath? Why Kath? Random much....


Okay, I was right, Captain looked funny but I'm horrible at first impressions and figured I'd misjudged him. On that note, yay for his death (and an apology Boro; of the people I was considering voting, you kept jumping out at me.) and hopefully we'll get a good lynch toDay, shall we?


Off to read. Don't know when I'll be back (Internet's still a bit hit or miss) but I'll try to post a couple times before I pop off to bed.

[Brinniel]

I shall do an analysis The Bachelor/Bachelorette style...

The Bachelors:

Boromir88: I still see him as sensible and not very supicious. I wonder if that's partly because he's been defending me. Hmm...I have a habit of trusting people who defend me...I better be careful...

Nilpaurion Felagund : Ehmm...has he posted at all?

Nogrod: I don't really like the reasoning behind his suspicions. As I mentioned yesterDay, I think was reading too much into Gwath's post. He's definitely someone I need to take a closer look at tomorrow.

Gwathagor: So why are people jumping all over him toDay? I don't see anything particularly suspicious. Maybe I'm just a bit hesitant to see him lynched after what happened last game...

McCaber: Of the CoD voters, he's probably the most likely to be a wolf. But does that mean he is one? I don't really think so, and while I don't want to totally disregard him (or any of the other CoD voters for that matter), toDay I will give him the benefit of the doubt. Have a rose.

Shastanis Althreduin: Poor Shasta, everyone seems to go after him and no one ever believes him until after he is dead. Of course, he could really take advantage of that if he were a werewolf this time around. Hmm...I'm not sure what to think of him as of now.

Macalaure: Probably had the most innocent looking vote of Day 1. Because of that I really doubt he's a wolf and if he is, I'll eat my hat. So go ahead and take a rose.


The Bachelorettes:

Rikae: Someone I need to pay more attention to. But the suspicions she's made so far are pretty reasonable...the latest one about Lal was pretty interesting.

Nerwen: She's been slipping under my radar. Better go back and have a look at her.

Feanor of the Peredhil: Fea, why do you scare me so much? Perhaps because I know you can be quite the sneaky wolf. She's someone I want to watch carefully, but I won't be too hasty to vote for her. See, I do learn from past mistakes...

satansaloser2005: I agree that her vote was definitely the most suspicious of Day 1. But it isn't just the vote...I agree with Boromir; her behaviour feels a bit furry to me. She's another that I want to take a closer look at tomorrow.

Brinniel: Well, I know I'm innocent and I don't plan on self-voting. So I'll give myself a rose.

Mithalwen: Her vote looked very innocentish and so does her behaviour. I think she's probably innocent. You can have a rose too.

Isabellkya: Again, another innocent looking vote for CoD. Like I said, I don't want to completely forget about those voters just in case...but I think it'd be foolish to vote for any of them toDay. So take a rose Izzy...I'm not voting for you.

Lalwende: Another that's been slipping under my radar. I haven't seen anything terribly alarming about her, but I do want to have a look.


A Summary:

Possible Wolf
Nogrod
Sally

No Idea
Boromir
Nilpaurion
Gwathagor
Shasta
Rikae
Nerwen
Fea
Lalwende

Probably Innocent
McCaber
Mac
Brinn
Mithalwen
Izzy

Yeah...I need some work on that list. Too many people in the middle section.

So who else will get a rose and who will be the ill-fated one I choose to "send home"? Stay tuned...

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Sall

Kath? Why Kath? Random much....

Careful with what you say. Apparently if you question the reasons behind Kath's death, Nogrod will think you're a wolf.

[Gwathagor]

Nogrod needs a closer look. I've left out all the idle chatter and most of the smileys (there were too many).

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm getting interesting readings of the tribal-phase of the evolution...

It is about 4½ hours from the devious act of butchery.

There has been 16 acts of speaking by 7 persons out of 17.

All the speech-acts have been more or less banterish / introverted / in-character.

The only deviations from the rule - even if they could be counted in the class of banter as well are...

Boro throwing a light one on Fea.

Boro throwing a light one on me + saying Fea is innocent.

Mith saying my posting is a worrying sign.


Those who have not deviated from the IC-talk are: Lalwendë, Macalaure, Fea, CoD

* I'm counting this post of mine into the category with Boro & Mith eg. not only IC.*


Yes. It's early and all the rest. Nothing to say at this moment. Sure. But as I need to go to bed and I'm having a terribly busy day tomorrow I'll try to say at least something.

Boro's sudden and quick change of mind with Fea is interesting. There seems to be no reason for it. If he was trying something (as an innocent) he would have let time pass and get some feedback but now he turned his tail after one banterish reply. I mean people do have fun and they should. But there are always things behind your rants and turn-arounds.

Which makes it interesting he should turn to me for the in-character accusation of wolvery in the very same post. Now why? To make me stop playing IC? Well, if it was that you succeeded it seems (although the time of the night here and my busy tomorrow have a part to play in this as well). But was it that?

Mith's happiness to throw suspicion to me is something I could have foreseen in any case, but making it conveniently just after Boro had called my name, looks interesting as well. Not impossibly ordo-Mith-like but not too reassuring either.

But then again. It would be nice and fine to just stay in-character so long as others do if one was a wolf. So I'm not thinking those who had only played IC are any less suspicious at the moment.

We shall see as the hours pass.

This post seems relatively harmless. He starts off with some basic observations, and then, after mentioning that he doesn't have anything much to say, casts suspicion on Mith and Boro (especially Boro). He recognizes that Boro was bantering somewhat, but at the same time seems eager to find a subtext behind the banter.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

First. Boro asked me what I thought of Rikae's declaration of ordinariness. Well, I'm mainly interested in the motive behind that move. I mean making that kind of opening isn't exactly the most hilarious joke or the most ingenious or fresh move. So why would Rikae make it? Also it's hard to see it as a spontaneous reaction to anything (when one reacts spontaneously one may let that kind of banalities out from her keyboard) as she had known her role almost two days altready and she opened her first post with it.

Now I do sympathise with Rikae if she is an innocent indeed as I really felt relaxed and overwhelmingly happy when I heard I was innocent in the last game after a long period of special roles. But to say it aloud in your first post... So why?

I wouldn't like to lynch her for that but the declaration certainly raises eyebrows.

Never played it as my PC is too old to run it... but I am the Spore anticipator as you know...

Here, he talks a lot and says very little. He asks the obvious question of why Rikae would declare her own innocence, and then occupies the rest of his post with filler. He makes no helpful conclusions. Why should he post about it if he had nothing to say? A potential explanation is that Nogrod could addressing the obligatory issue without saying anything that might cause problems for fellow-wolf Rikae. Alternatively, he is just talking to himself - thinking out-loud, as it were.

At best, it is non-comittal. At worst, it is evasive.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Secondly this one from Gwath discussing Rikae caught my eye and the things he has been doing after it have raised my alarms a bit more.

Originally Posted by Gwath
At one point I would have pointed out that such a bold statement would be unlikely to come from a wolf, because it draws attention and attention is dangerous. My mistake was that I assumed that all wolves play the same way I do: low key. So, the question is, what kind of wolf does Rikae play as: bold, or boring?

(underlining mine) My first question was the following: are we now supposed to think that as Gwath now plays clearly actively (raising points about people) he is not a wolf as when wolf he (always?) plays low key? Interestingly enough his post began with suspecting Rikae somewhat just on the grounds of her trying to declare herself innocent - and now he does about the same thing himself in the very same post albeit indirectly!

But it gets more interesting.

Nerwen pointed out that Gwath knows about Rikae playing a wolf and wondered why Gwath bothered to ask about it? And Gwath answered:

[Here he quotes me.]
I was thinking out loud - or, rather, on-screen.

Which I find quite a peculiar one as answers go. So his question that he made about Rikae after his own indirect "I'm innocent" is somewhat fishy then? It makes me wonder at least.

But the last one is the one I got worried about.

Originally Posted by Gwath
I wish I could stick around and participate in the discussion, but I have to run off. I'll be back in time for the deadline, but I just wanted to make it clear that I'm not trying to be extra-quiet and slide under the radar. It's inadvertent.

Now comparing this with the other underlining in the first quote really sends shivers down my spine. So when he's a wolf he's quiet and now he has to explain that as he has to go it doesn't mean that he is being flying under the radar...

It seems obvious to me that Nogrod is making a concerted effort to find arguments against me where very few exist. His points can be summarized as follows:

1. Nogrod is inclined to find me guilty because I am making assertions about other people, which I profess to not doing when I am a wolf, playing "low-key." If I were a wolf, he implies, I would do the opposite of what I claim to do as a wolf. Because I am doing the opposite (i.e. I am making points about others), I must be a wolf. This, at least, is the implication.

The first problem in this argument (albeit an implied argument) is that it argues that I am a wolf based on the assumption that I am a wolf.

The second problem is that he misdefines "low-key". "Low-key" does not mean silence or lack of discourse. It means that I am careful not to draw unecessary attention to myself. Lack of discourse is obvious, and therefore not low-key.

2. According to Nogrod, it is strange for me to profess to "thinking on-screen."

However, he purports to doing much the same thing in post #163: "I'm just trying to help myself to orientate and to see where to look in the beginning toDay." There's nothing weird about this. Organizing one's thoughts by posting makes a lot of sense.

3. Because I claim to be a low-key wolf, my statement in a later post that I am not trying to fly under the radar - in other words, not trying to play low-key - looks mighty suspicious.

Actually, I agree with him here. I don't like, however, that he makes much of the chills and shivers that my post sends down his spine. Appeal to the emotion is an effective rhetorical device, but it's not helpful here.

Overall, this post of Nogrod's seems forced and exaggerative.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Mith: it is already clear that I read your post back there the wrong way as you suspecting me. So why are you coming back to it the second time?

And anyway. That was early in the Day with about twenty posts made in total (almost everyone of them being only joking & banter). I think both you Mith (explaining your post many times) and Boro (making that "empirical device" where you consider I'm one who suspects you) are making a mountain out of a molehill here. (Yes Mith, I didn't consider your posts as cross-posts and that was my carelessness not to look at the timestamps and think about the possibility. Yes.)

But your posts were the only ones there was anything even remotely looking like saying something that gets the game forwards at that point of the game. Now after people have contributed more there clearly are better points to be made - and it was obvious back then in the beginning of the Day. But your insistence on coming back to those early hour "suspicions" doesn't make me too happy about you two.

But I'm even more unhappy with those who just fly straight through the banter-radar or under any radar just not appearing or not contributing.

And I have a battle with myself about Gwath. He looks wolvish to me and I think I have plausible reasons and so I should trust my own judgement. But I've been wrong with him so many times... Unless there is a "submarine" we can agree on or any better cases to come forwards, or if I have to try and save someone I think is clearly less guilty than someone else, I'm considering of voting Gwath.

He complains that Boro and Mith should stopd dwelling on early Day 1 posts that occurred when most people were still sticking to IC banter. It's ironic that he should here mention making a mountain out of a molehill, given his last post.

He also reiterates his suspicion of me, without any new or more substantial evidence.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

About 15-16 minutes more I think...

Ok.

[Then some idle chatter.]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay... okay... Point taken.

Now let's continue with the wolf-hunt.

Eager to lay his argument with Boro to rest.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Fili... what? Sorry. I need a dictionary... and a cigarette anyway.

Gwath anyone?

Boro, CoD & Brinn on two now. Of those I'd say Brinn might be the best choice but CoD has been annoying. Boro I wouldn't lynch on Day1 for being himself.

Here he fishes for other Gwath votes. At best, it looks like Nogrod is making another effort to argue my - or at least convince others of - my guilt. At worst, he's just trying to start a bandwagon. I am inclined to believe the latter.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If Brinn is innocent she is good to have around and I'm not too confident of her guilt right now - even if I see why she could be a wolf.

Fair enough.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

CoD is the "easy" lynch and therefore probably wrong... Boro I would like to have around.

I'd say Gwath as I think his behaviour has been over-defencive to the point of being suspicious. Of others I have not as much.

What say you others?

Over-defensive? This is just plain outlandish. At this point in the game, I have not replied to any accusations leveled against me. I have replied to one question. My reply was short, prompt, and to the point. Obviously, the fact that it was a response makes it, by nature, defensive, but to call it over-defensive is making a mountain out of a molehill. Again.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'll try it then

++ Gwath

I admire his consistency.


[Then there's a bunch of chatter around the deadline. Check it out if you like.]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Wow! Hopefully this will encourage people to lynch those who try to just slip through Day1 with nonsense in the following games. I mean if there would be that kind of general attitude the wolves (and innocents) would know they will have to actually play on Day1 as well and the game would become so much more interesting.

As I said yesterDay his playing style annoyed me but I was thinking of him as an ordo trying to get through Day1 as easily as possible to see whether he would get interested in the game later on.

Luckily many enough were ready to vote him off.


I'll summarise the few lists given here already to form myself a preliminary manual for where to look toDay.

McCaber, Isabell, Mac and Mith voted for CoD. Looking at the closeness of the race yesterDay it seems - like Brinn already commented - a bit unlikely there is a wolf among them. It's possible, to be sure but still...

CoD "suspected" Macalaure, Rikae and Boro. That was quite an early post and so he had no reason to believe he was going to get lynched. So it could be believable that those he mentioned were innocent indeed to whom he wished to point the discussion to go for. It's possible he put one of his fellows there to be sure but like Mac said it's improbable both of his mates are there and personally - at least for the time being I'm bending to think there are not even one of his mates there.

If these points are plausible - as working-hypotheses to begin with - then it would suggest that we could feel pretty safe with:

McCaber
Isabell
Macalaure
Mithalwen
Rikae
Boro

Nice list indeed. And I'd bet a lot against there being two wolves there.

So that leaves us with:

Nerwen
Feanor of the Peredhil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Nogrod
Gwathagor
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Brinniel
Lalwendë

And one or two wolves lurking there.

(Before anyone jumps on it: no, I'm not suggesting this is the final truth of the matter or think we should forget the above six and only notice what the rest say... No, no and no. I'm just trying to help myself to orientate and to see where to look in the beginning toDay.)

I responded to this post in #168. In summary, I agreed with his main points, but argued that Rikae or Boro is probably a wolf based on CoD's "suspicion" of them. Mac I believed (and still believe) innocent based on his vote against CoD.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay, who's the next one to declare innocence?

Originally Posted by Brinn
Anyway, do you really think I would kill someone on Night 2 thinking they're a possible seer just because they voted me?

But there are actually things in Brinn's posting I think merit a second look.

Originally Posted by Brinn
Anyway, do you really think I would kill someone on Night 2 thinking they're a possible seer just because they voted me?

I don't think anyone has said that. But if you're a wolf and saw Kath coming out of the blue just stating her suspicion & vote, you might think she could be the seer. And seers will have to go whatever the cost - even if it means the death of the seer frames one wolf. The seer is too dangerous not to be killed at the first possible instant.

Originally Posted by Brinn
honestly, the possibility that the seer would dream of me on Night 1 is the last thing I'd expect.

What you expect or don't isn't actually an argument in your favour in this case (or in any case). Why do you state that expectation? The more interesting part does begin right here.

So let's assume you're a wolf for the argument's sake. Now you realise that your trying to kill the seer backfired and you are exposed because someone guessed right the reason behind Kath's death. Understandably you feel an urge to purify your name and so you try to come up with every possible reason why the theory doesn't hold. Then you come up with a) I wouldn't kill someone for just voting me & b) and the seer wouldn't have dreamt of me anyway...

Now these surely might be things you could come up with and defend both of them. It's only that bringing them up together looks kind of fishy. I mean if you were an innocent you wouldn't probably think it that way, if you get what I mean.

And to add one small thing more; if you're an innocent why do you speculate about yourself being dreamt of in that fashion? If you're an innocent a seer dream means you're a known innocent by now. It's not something you should be afraid of or in need to convince others that has not happened - or that you would not expect that it has happened...

Originally Posted by Brinn
Ah yes, the ranger...I almost forgot. Perhaps that's why the wolves didn't kill those who I thought would be more obvious choices. Good point.

The classic, straight from the Werewolf handbook! Was it Hint #13 for tightening situations?

To open the Day by asking why Kath was killed and to leave an impression you had no idea is actually a sound wolf tactics as Boro already mentioned. Saying that you forgot about the ranger kind of underlines the very same thing: look at me, I have no idea why she was killed. But why would an innocent stress that so much? A wolf might feel the need to do that though...

And to add that classical "Good point" you try to help a common consensus to be built that the reason for Kath's death was her being a safe kill and not being one you thought was the seer...


Okay this is all very speculative. I admit it myself. But still it's my second best suspicion this far (Gwath still remaining my #1 at the moment).

It may be you Brinn have been framed. It may be Boro indeed is our cobbler and he has been grinning all the time he has read my post until now of course...

He makes some good points, but I disagree that the wolves HAVE to kill whoever they think the seer is right away, even if it means casting heavy suspicion on a fellow wolf.

Based on the premise that wolves have to kill a suspected seer, he suggests that Brinn had to kill Kath, regardless of potential problems it could cause her (Brinn, not Kath...) the next Day.

He admits that his argument is speculative. I agree, but I think it's still worth keeping in mind.

I'm still #1 on his vote-list.


[Banter...]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Check my post #80 (second page, last post). It's quite compactly put there. It's not the the most solid case there could be, sure, but it's not bad as Day1-theories go.

Not the most solid, no.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Originally Posted by Gwathagor
Come on, Nogrod, you know what I think of Day 1 theories.

I do. But what you think about Day1 theories in general doesn't influence the correctness or incorrectness of any particular Day1 theory by anyone...

And believe it or not: I've been in a handful of games where indeed actual reasoning has gotten us a wolf on Day1. So you should give Day1's a bit more respect even if they oftentimes feel like randomized lottery.

The interesting fact is - just to say it aloud before going to sleep - that in villages where a majority thinks Day1's are hateful and stupid Day1's are the most random as no one really tries. And what follows from that they rarely offer too much hindsight even at the later stages if all people have done is banter and random-voting. In villages where majority goes all in from the earliest moments the Day1's are the most fruitful - and basically the ones where we have really gotten the wolves with brains and not by sheer luck.

Also it's clear that just whining about Day1's all Day1 is not actually playing them and that's unsporty and whatever. But most importantly it's good for the wolves as they can hide in the nonsense much easier than in the middle of arguments.

What I think certainly does not influence the truth of the matter. It does, however, reflect it.

And I don't whine. I grumble.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Originally Posted by Boromir88
Also, I think Brin just sounds sincere and your "case" against her seems a bit forced. However, I will go back and do some re-examining on Brin if you consider taking a good look at sally.


Even if I don't get that "I'll do X if you will do Y" -kind of exchange (would you not do X if I'd refuse to do Y?), I do agree that it would be good if someone else also looked after Brinn and I'm indeed going to look at Sally tomorrow after I wake up.

My suspicions on Brinn were raised in fact on yesterDay already (Mac's points looked reasonable compared with my own feelings of her posting) but I thought they were too little to justify a Day1 lynch. But then when toDay I saw Brinn's posting I also remembered the things from Day1 and therefore felt it important enough to bring something forwards. I need to look back at the yesterDay's stuff myself as well with Brinn as I have toDay only looked at two posts from her toDay.

Ok, while it is somewhat convenient that Nogrod has apparently been suspicious of Brinn all along, this post seems relatively straightforward.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Originally Posted by Mithalwen
However - I find Gwathagor's response, to my response on his "correct me if I am wrong" re Captain of Despair baffling. How that pointing out that COD isn't an unsphisticated thinker makes me a wolf is beyond me.


Indeed. Who could make that kind of a point? I mean had Mith lied someone would have caught her from it. I mean there must be a host of people who have played with CoD many times. I've played with him a few games and can only agree with Mith about his resourcefulness. And why would Mith lie about CoD's abilities or history, how could lying in that kind of matters help her in the first place?

So who could make such a point then (Gwath's point that is)?

Someone with really original, basically idiosyncratic thinking-processes?
Someone who writes without thinking?
A nervous wolf under pressure trying to mirror anything so that people would talk of something else than him?

I think Gwath is none of the two first ones.

I'm not sure I have all the possibilities there to be sure but at least now those are the ones that come to mind.


ADD: Point taken Boro. I stressed the ifand you stressed the consider... and they are not at the same level. So you're right (darn broken English...)

I responded to Mith's question in post #190, and I think that post answers this one as well. I was not making any kind of argument against Mith. Any kind. Nogrod, however, is more than eager to jump on this opportunity to express his suspicion of me again. This argument doesn't bear examination any more than the others did: essentially, it is a false tri-lemma (am I coining a term?). He gives us three options: either I think really weird, I write without thinking, or I'm a wolf. I would like to suggest a third option: I think normally, but sometimes fail to effectively communicate my thoughts through my writing.

Overall: Nogrod banters a bit, makes some good points, posits interesting theories, and seems hell-bent on finding me guilty one way or another.

I think he is way too interested in establishing my guilt, to the point that my guilt has become the basis of his arguments against me, and, essentially, the premises are being tailored to fit the conclusion.


EDIT: Crossed with everyone since Shasta

[Nerwen]

Prior to CaptainofDespair's Day One vote, he is only mentioned in passing:

Nogrod lists him, along with Lalwendë, Macalaure, and Fea, as “Those who have not deviated from the IC-talk” (#22)
Lalwendë says of him, "No idea” (#61)
Macalaure: “*shrug*”

After the weird vote:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Oh, come on. Yes, half-random Day 1 votes aren't great, but not voting at all doesn't get us anywhere.

Also, those half-random votes often bring some insights with them on Day 2, and you have just elegantly dodged that for yourself...

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Seriously? No, really, you're bluffing right? This is one of those 'I'm going to let the Daleks think they can kill me but really my companion is bringing the TARDIS back in five minutes to save my behind' kind of things, right? I just find this extremely....not good.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Brin seems a little off to me, as does the Captain.

Originally Posted by McCaber

++CaptainofDespair

for cryptic remarks and other general nonsense.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Votes, but doesn't. At the same time, though, I've never played with Captain before, so I'll just leave this alone, at least for toDay.

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

I am off now..so, I suppose this is a throw away vote at best..

++CoD

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Boro, CoD & Brinn on two now. Of those I'd say Brinn might be the best choice but CoD has been annoying.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Brinn, Gwath, and Captain D are on my list, neither of which I feel really confident voting...

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I'm between Boro and Brinn myself, unless something happens in these last ten(ish) minutes. I'd like to figure out what Captain's up to so I'm not too keen on that route. Bah, I'll send this and see what time the Downs says it is, then I may comment more.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

If I have to choose between the current ones it will be CoD .. something too clever clever about the day 1 thing...

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'd hate to see CoD go this early, simply because he's a fascinating specimen I've never seen before.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

CoD, judging from his contributions today (no offense intended), would be the least of a loss if innocent.

++CaptainofDespair

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Umm I think CoD is going to be a victim for a wolf bandwagon

(Boro had 2 votes at this point himself)

Originally Posted by Nogrod

CoD is the "easy" lynch and therefore probably wrong... [

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

It's true, Captain has been the least helpful, but that doesn't mean we have a Captain Fuzzball on our hands. I can't kill someone with good conscience when I have no idea what they're on about, at least not the first Day. (Votes Boro)

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Would probably go for Shasta or Nogrod if there was a point but for bad reasons (not to lose Boro and Brin yet)

++ Captain of Despair

And here are the votes, with timing (GMT):

Rikae --> Sally (1:19 AM GMT).
Shasta --> Boro (6:42 AM)
Brinniel --> Mac (1:27 PM)
Gwath --> Rikae (1:49 PM)
CaptainofDespair --> Day One (2:29 PM)
McCaber --> CaptainofDespair (3:35 PM)
Lalwendë --> Brinniel (3:46 PM)

Last hour:

Feanor of the Peredhil --> Boro (04:02 PM) (Boro 2)
Isabellkya --> CaptainofDespair (04:41 PM) (CoD 2)
Kath --> Brinn (04:41 PM) (Brinn 2)

Last ten minutes:

Mac --> CaptainofDespair (4:56 PM) (CoD 3)
Nogrod --> Gwath (4:48 PM)
Sally --> Boro (4:59 PM) (notes that she crossed “with a host”) (Boro 3)
Mithalwen --> CaptainofDespair (4:59 PM) (CoD 4)
Boro --> Lalwendë (4:59) PM

Comments: As others have said, Sally is a little odd... she's one of the first to raise suspicion of CaptainofDespair, but then plays it down the tighter the noose gets around his neck. However, it's not as if there was a particularly good case against him.

I find Boro's behaviour most peculiar. His neck was on the line for the last hour– why didn't he vote one of the other leads to save himself? (True, I guess he couldn't have known about Sally's vote for him, but then he couldn't have known about Mith's for CoD either).

EDIT: X'd with Isabellkya, Sally, Brinniel and Gwath.
EDIT 2: Left out quotes.

[Nerwen]

Gwath, can you please fix up the tags in your last post? I can't tell what's you and what's Nogrod.