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02-22-2006, 06:13 PM | #121 | |
Riveting Ribbiter
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Assigned to Mordor
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Hmm. Crawled all over Holby's posts and couldn't find a strong clue of who she dreamt of or anything that pointed her out as gifted. The defense of Morm seems a bit too light to indicate a dream. I guess the wolves were lucky.
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Sorry for lack of insight at the moment. I only have a few minutes to post just now (sharing a phone line with several other people). Will be back later.
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02-22-2006, 06:16 PM | #122 |
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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Zounds! We have lost our Seer already. And our True Seer at that. To lose one Seer might be regarded as unfortunate, but to lose the True Seer is a bloomin' disaster.
I cannot recall anything that Holbytlass said that might have suggested that she was the Seer. Then again, I cannot recall much of what she said at all. Either Holby's vote yesterday puts tar-ancalime in a rather bad light or this is a rather clumsy attempt to frame her. My suspicions of tar yesterday notwithstanding, I am inclined to the latter view. It would take a bold Wolf indeed to kill one of the two who voted for her, especially if she did suspect Holby to be the True Seer. Perhaps she is counting on us seeing it as an attempt to frame her, but I frankly view that as unlikely. I will have to go back and look at Holby's contributions from yesterday, but my initial reaction is to agree with those who doubt that she dreamed of a Wolf. In the meantime, as is customary, here is yesterday's voting record: 1. Glirdan for Gil-Galad (Gil-Galad-1) 2. Nilpaurion Felagund for Farael (Gil-Galad-1, Farael-1) 3. Lhunardawen for Glirdan (Gil-Galad-1, Farael-1, Glirdan-1) 4. Gil-Galad for Glirdan (Gil-Galad-1, Farael-1, Glirdan-2) 5. Tar-ancalime for Eomer of the Rohirrim (Gil-Galad-1, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1) 6. The Saucepan Man for Lhunardawen (Gil-Galad-1, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-1) 7. Anguirel for Boromir88 (Gil-Galad-1, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-1, Boromir88-1) 8. Farael for Aiwendil (Gil-Galad-1, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-1, Boromir88-1, Aiwendil-1) 9. Formendacil for Boromir88 (Gil-Galad-1, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-1, Boromir88-2, Aiwendil-1) 10. Mormegil for Gil-Galad (Gil-Galad-2, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-1, Boromir88-2, Aiwendil-1) 11. Eomer of the Rohirrim for Lhunardawen (Gil-Galad-2, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-2, Boromir88-2, Aiwendil-1) 12. Aiwendil for tar-ancalime (Gil-Galad-2, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-2, Boromir88-2, Aiwendil-1, tar-ancalime-1) 13. Kath for Gil-Galad (Gil-Galad-3, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-2, Boromir88-2, Aiwendil-1, tar-ancalime-1) 14. Holbytlass for tar-ancalime (Gil-Galad-3, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-2, Boromir88-2, Aiwendil-1, tar-ancalime-2) 15. Celuin for Gil-Galad (Gil-Galad-4, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-2, Boromir88-2, Aiwendil-1, tar-ancalime-2) 16. dancing spawn for Lhunardawen (Gil-Galad-4, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-3, Boromir88-2, Aiwendil-1, tar-ancalime-2) 17. Garin for Boromir88 (Gil-Galad-4, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-3, Boromir88-3, Aiwendil-1, tar-ancalime-2) 18. littlemanpoet for Boromir88 (Gil-Galad-4, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-3, Boromir88-4, Aiwendil-1, tar-ancalime-2) 19. Boromir88 for Gil-Galad (Gil-Galad-5, Farael-1, Glirdan-2, Eomer-1, Lhunardawen-3, Boromir88-4, Aiwendil-1, tar-ancalime-2) All voted (thankfully). Some interesting ideas have been put forward today already, which I will need to consider. And I have some ideas of my own to share, based on yesterday's votes, which I will do shortly. One thing, though. I am not convinced that the False Seer should come forward yet. Yes, it would give us a known innocent, but the False Seer can still dream and we know that their dreams are most likely to be wrong. Might that be of some use? If for example, they dream of someone and see a Wolf, the likelihood is that person is innocent. So it might be worth them staying hidden for a while yet in order to accumulate more information. It is really up to the False Seer, since they would most likely be signing their own death warrant, but we have time before the voting begins in earnest to consider it.
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Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind! Last edited by The Saucepan Man; 02-22-2006 at 06:19 PM. Reason: Got the names mixed up ... |
02-22-2006, 06:31 PM | #123 |
Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
Posts: 5,312
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Sign: Given a note crill . . .
So, we lost our Seer. Nasty. 'Cod rest her sole.'
Now, yesterDAY's voting was quite interesting, as I had hoped. What did I see? 1. The Boromir88 bandwaggon was constructed so hurriedly (it started two and three-quarters of an hour before the end of the DAY) and so flimsily (there was no evidence that I could see, really) that any attempts to rush it past a pregnant crab would result in serious physical injuries. Speaking of which, I would like to do some to the builders of this bandwaggon, preferrably one involving a snapped thoracic vertebra. 2. The Gil-galad bandwaggon was, well, somewhat predictable. Gil must be paying for surviving seven DAYs in the previous game. But enough of him. Glirdan's vote looks innocuous for now, Boro's vote was, well, excuseable. morm's vote, in combination with his posts, looks understandable as well. Now, what struck me were Kath's and Celu's vote. Aside from Gil being Gil (I sympathise with him, during DAY 1s, at least), there was no proper reason, really. Well, they're marked with question marks on my list, not exclamation marks--ones which marks all of those who built Boro's waggon--, so I just wanted to point it out. 3. The Lhunardawen bandwaggon was a veritable surprise for me. Although the reason looks well enough. I'd like to think (and hope) that all the builders of this bandwaggon are innocent (or this village might suddenly have a cobbler[sic]. ) 4. The other votes: You know my (uninspired) reason for voting Farael. tar-ancalime's vote for Eomer also has an exclamation mark on my list. These two could possibly be wolf-on-wolf voting, although I'd say now that I'm not a Werewolf. (Thanks for the vote of confidence, Sauce. ) Farael's vote could also be wolf-on-wolf, although I don't think a Werewolf would bother making an elaborate case--and that was DAY 1, after all. Randomness rules. Farael is cleared for now. I think the Glirdan voters are innocent--well, we now know Gil is innocent, and I would like to hope that my sister is, too. (Perhaps I should watch her while she sleeps, maybe she'll talk in her sleep and give me hints.) The tar-ancalime voters look innocent, too--we know Holby is innocent, and Aiwendil looks pretty normal, for now. So there. I am looking closely at (in order): Littlepoet Man, Anguirel, tar-ancalime, Formendacil, and Garin.
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
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02-22-2006, 06:45 PM | #124 | |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: abaft the beam
Posts: 303
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Good heavens! This is a pickle.
Ordinarily I'd be closely examining the posts of those who voted for Gil-Galad, but frankly I don't see the efficacy of that approach in this case. His obvious mistake about the Cobbler made him an easy target for people who didn't know where their votes should go; Boromir clearly voted to save himself. Which brings me to yesterday's Boromir campaign: I don't understand this at all. One vote, two votes at random, I can understand: it was the first Day, after all, and you've got to vote for someone, and we can't all vote for Gil-Galad. But four votes for Boromir, forcing him to vote to save himself at the dire last minute? I just don't see the basis for the suspicion. Formendacil has already explained his vote; Anguirel's I'm ready to assume was largely random and for the sake of "spread;" but I'd like to hear more from lmp and Garin about their votes. Especially Garin, in light of this: Quote:
Now, Boromir, I'm well aware that I'm coming under some scrutiny myself today, so I do apologize if anyone postulates an evil alliance between the two of us because of this post.
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Having fun wolfing it to the bitter end, I see, gaur-ancalime (lmp, ww13) |
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02-22-2006, 07:04 PM | #125 |
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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OK, my thoughts on the voting.
First off, I too found it strange that Boromir88 accumulated so many votes. I saw nothing in him yesterday to attract particular suspicion. Elempi seemed particularly aggressive in his desire to see Boro lynched. More reason still to keep an eye on him. But my main suspicions arise from the votes cast yesterday for Gil-Galad. I am not sure how he became such a prime suspect. His reaction vote for Glirdan worried me at first, but when I considered it further it seemed to me to be a most un-Wolfish thing to do. It was bound to draw attention, so why would a Wolf do it? And there was nothing else to go on, other than the fact that he was quiet. But that is standard behaviour for Gil. The following voted for him (in order): Glirdan, mormegil, Kath, Celuin and Boromir88. I am still inclined to view Glirdan's early vote for Gil as being too risky for a Wolf, given that Gil was quite likely to be in the running to be lynched (as indeed he was). Boro's vote could go either way. I should perhaps correct a seemingly general misapprehension. Boro did not have to vote for Gil to save himself. He voted last, at a time when he and Gil were tied on four votes each. Had he voted differently, Gil would still have been lynched because there are no double lynchings and Gil received the first vote. But in those circumstances, wouldn't a Wolfish Boro simply have "throw away" his vote, especially when he claimed to have other suspects, rather than voting for Gil? On the other hand, perhaps he felt that a vote for Gil would look more innocent as he could claim that he had no choice (which is precisely what he did). So Boro's vote for Gil could go either way for me. To my mind, the most suspicious votes for Gil are those in between. Gil was an easy target, especially as he already had one vote. Perhaps the Wolves thought they could avoid the noose if they promoted him as a candidate. Or perhaps one of them had attracted some votes and was at risk of being lynched. Mormegil's vote put Gil equal with Glirdan and Boro on two votes each. Kath's vote put him one ahead of Glirdan, Boro and Lhuna, on three votes. Celuin put him two ahead of Glirdan, Boro, Lhuna and tar-ancalime, making him the clear favourite for the noose. I suspect that there is one Wolf (although probably no more) among those three Gil voters. And there could well also be a Wolf among those who were potentially saved by those votes. I am inclined, for now, to think Glirdan and tar innocent and I am unsure about Boro. Which leaves Lhuna, my prime suspect from yesterday. But would a Wolfish Lhuna kill Holby, who cast suspicion on her yesterday? Possibly. If she is a Wolf, she was a bold one yesterday. So, my current suspects (and in no particular order as matters stand): mormegil, Kath, Celuin, elempi and Lhuna. I will review Holby's posts from yesterday and the contributions made already today. But it is getting late in my part of the village ( ), so I may not be back until later today (RL: tomorrow).
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Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind! |
02-22-2006, 07:08 PM | #126 | |
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
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Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind! |
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02-22-2006, 07:08 PM | #127 | |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: abaft the beam
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Having fun wolfing it to the bitter end, I see, gaur-ancalime (lmp, ww13) |
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02-22-2006, 07:12 PM | #128 | |
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
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Actually, I see that I had it slightly wrong. In the event of a tie, it is the first person to reach the number of votes they are tied on. But Gil reached 4 votes before Boro did, so Gil's fate was sealed by the time that Boro voted.
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Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind! |
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02-22-2006, 07:15 PM | #129 |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: abaft the beam
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Thanks for checking on that, Saucepan Man. That's what I get for not doing my homework.
So where does that leave us? I'm still confused about the Boromir bandwagon (sounds like the tour bus for a rock band, don't you think?).
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Having fun wolfing it to the bitter end, I see, gaur-ancalime (lmp, ww13) |
02-22-2006, 07:34 PM | #130 | ||||
Energetic Essence
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I must say that going over a few posts (quickly), a few people seemed to jump right on the "let's get rid of the quiet ones" suggestion that I came up with. I say that we look closely at them *coughLhunacough*. Me saying that was a complete ploy to bring out discussion. Not exactly what happened, but close enough.
Firstly, I must say that I'm glad to see that some people saw my vote for what it truly was: randomness. Those people know who they are. Now, when I say Lhuna, I mean it. She really jumped at me when I suggested it. Then she goes and votes for me for coming up with that idea and my random (which I said in my vote post) vote for Gil. Talk about a quick reaction to it. Definetly at the top of my list. Now to adress a few things: Quote:
Awsome questions you came up with Aiwendil and I will adress them right now: Quote:
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The third one doesn't really apply toDay. However, I still believe that we should probably spread the votes, slightly. Keep it concentrated on those who voted for the known innocents. Quote:
I'll have more up in a bit.
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I'm going to buy you a kitty, I'm going to let you fall in love with the kitty, and one cold, winter night, I'm going to steal into your house and punch you in the face! Fenris Wolf
Last edited by Glirdan; 02-22-2006 at 08:39 PM. |
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02-22-2006, 07:56 PM | #131 | ||||
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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Some further brief thoughts before I retire.
I can see nothing in Holby's contributions to indicate that she was the Seer. So it seems most likely to me that the Wolves just got lucky, and it also seems that we are unhappily left without any clues as to the one dream that she did have. Quote:
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Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind! |
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02-22-2006, 07:57 PM | #132 | |||
Energetic Essence
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~Look carefully through ALL the posts and take what you can from them. ~Don't vote for someone, say they are probably innocent and then say "but what can I do?" (I am being positively evil!! ) Quote:
This is the end of my answering to things from yesterDay. I will move on to toDay in a minute.
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I'm going to buy you a kitty, I'm going to let you fall in love with the kitty, and one cold, winter night, I'm going to steal into your house and punch you in the face! Fenris Wolf
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02-22-2006, 08:06 PM | #133 |
Energetic Essence
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There's only one thing that I really have to adress toDay and it's Boro's vote. Why on earth would you vote for Gil (if you didn't suspect him [forgive me if you did for I only breifly scanned the posts]), why on Arda did you vote for him? Everyone knows fully well that if it comes down to a tie, the person to reach that number of votes first would be lynched. Your vote sealed Gil's fate. So, that brings me to this: why did you not vote for the person you suspected??
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I'm going to buy you a kitty, I'm going to let you fall in love with the kitty, and one cold, winter night, I'm going to steal into your house and punch you in the face! Fenris Wolf
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02-22-2006, 08:18 PM | #134 |
Riveting Ribbiter
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Assigned to Mordor
Posts: 1,767
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Since Lhuna, along with elempi, seems to be heading up the suspect list, guess I'll take a look at them.
Lhuna: Most of the suspicion of the Princess seems related to her attack on Glirdan for the suggestion to lynch quiet villagers. And her...ahem...haughty tone with demands not to be killed. The second part is just being in character, I think. Although, as Boro pointed out, it was strange to be so stongly against Gilrdy's plan when she was at the moment among the most vocal villagers. Elempi: I'm also somewhat puzzled by his strong joining in on the Boro bandwagon. Yes, Boro wasn't quite himself yesterday, but that's been changed today, as I thought it would. And as much as I hate to do it, I'm starting to find myself agreeing with SpM's assessment that he might have been trying to flush out the Seer. Although I find myself wondering if wolf-Elempi would be that obvious. I seem to recall reading a history of an extremely subtle namesake of his who did turn out to have lycanthropic tendencies. That one would have been more careful. Still, I'll eagerly await his promised answer. And finally SpM, since you brought it up, I really didn't want to get drawn back into the Seer argument yesterday. But a question was posed about my post. If I ignored it, that would have looked suspicious, since I'm sure someone would have accused me of trying to cause confusion by leaving an ambiguous statement out for discussion (which had already started before I returned). I figured it was better to answer and clear up any questions I may have caused than to let it sit and possibly generate even more debate. Does that answer your concern about my re-entering the discussion?
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People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect. But actually, from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint, it's more like a big ball of wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey... stuff. |
02-22-2006, 08:34 PM | #135 | |||||||||||||
Itinerant Songster
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: The Edge of Faerie
Posts: 7,066
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Oh heck I'll 'bite'
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Note to self: Oh, but that would be too simple and straightforward and obvious, LMP, you can't possibly have meant that; why it would mean you're [heaven & mormegil forbid: innocent ]) Welllll, guessy whattee! Quote:
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02-22-2006, 08:39 PM | #136 | ||
Laconic Loreman
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You are right though in that I didn't suspect Gil as a wolf. I had no reason to think he was a wolf, but why I voted for him was of course me thinking I was saving my life...when in actuality Gil's fate was already sealed. But the fact remained I know I'm innocent, though I didn't believe Gil-galad was a wolf, I couldn't be positive of his innocence. I felt like I was forced to vote for Gil-galad so I wouldn't be lynched a long with him, but now I know in actuality I didn't save my life. So I withdraw these comments I make in post 104 about lmp...but I insert these new ones. Assuming lmp was informed on the no double lynchings, by tieing votes between me and Gil-galad he keeps his hands clean from lynching Gil-galad (because only a wolf-now with the absense our seer-knows who is innocent or not). Of course knowing, that Gil-galad would already be hanged, why incriminate himself by voting for him, he would keep his hands clean in the matter.
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Fenris Penguin
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02-22-2006, 08:48 PM | #137 | |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Ciudad de Lago del Sal
Posts: 331
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It was the first day, and who says I will vote the same way? Boromir is not a proven innocent... unlike Gil. My intuition is a wolvish one (see my aforementioned past lives) and I saw plenty of it in Boromir's last minute posts. I understand he was saving his skin, but I remember a couple of times I was in the same furry position. I really felt for the guy. I explained that I had little time to listen to our fellow villagers and quickly perused their comments. I could just as easily be questioned for getting on a Lhuna bandwagon or killing an innocent Gil. I evened things up, as I said, to examine the last minute votes and posts. I hope to explain why I found Boro's posts suspicious, but I must go now. I have less time for village than I hoped, kill me if you must. More later. Let me just say... Only a fool would vote to lynch me. Let me die at the claws of wolves. I am but a simple baker and want to go out with a little drama. Baking bread all day... my forefathers all died of yeast infections. (It was a horrid demon yeast.)
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I am a sick man ... I am a spiteful man. I am an unpleasant man. I think my liver is diseased. Fyodor Dostoevsky "Notes From the Underground" |
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02-22-2006, 08:50 PM | #138 | |
Laconic Loreman
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lmp...well how convenient you suspect the very thing Anguirel did, but before Anguirel and now expect us to think that you "had" suspicions on me you just didn't feel like saying them until the very end of the day?
lmp, I almost want to say lynch me so people see behind your twisted words, but no that wouldn't work well. You see I think you are now caught in a trap. Since you are caught you are going to take down everyone you can with you (which apparently would be me) Quote:
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Fenris Penguin
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02-22-2006, 08:51 PM | #139 | |||
Late Istar
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 2,224
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It occurs to me that I didn't offer an answer to my own question 1 from yesterDAY. To some degree, my questions were merely intended to spark serious conversation, but I should say a word or two about what I think the best ways to spot a wolf are. It seems to me that voting is the one place where the wolves can't hide. A wolf, it seems to me, will be willing to say anything. But what a wolf fears is the hangman's noose - whether it be 'round his/her own neck or a compatriot's. To put it another way: wolves and villagers will probably sound more or less alike, but they won't vote alike. That's why the anti-Boromir campaign looks so suspicious to me.
Having said that, it would be foolish to look at the votes and ignore the discussion. No doubt there are signs of wolvishness to be found in the discussion. But it seems to me that those signs will be harder to read there than in the voting record. On to other things. Formendacil gives a decent account of his vote for Boromir: Quote:
So Form is still most definitely still on my suspect list. Garin's vote looks even more wolfish - which, of course, simultaneously makes him seem less and more suspicious. Garin may be a bold wolf trying to save a comrade (assuming one of the other lynch-candidates at that point was a wolf) or simply trying to force Gil's death. The more I think about LMP, the stranger he seems. If not for his sudden attack on Boromir I would probably deem him "likely innocent". LMP - would you care to explain your strange zeal? Or should we perhaps be calling you littlewolfpoet? The other possibility that occurs to me is that LMP might be the False Seer and that perhaps he dreamed that Boromir was a wolf. Wild speculation on my part for wild behavior on LMP's. Actually, come to think of it, I wonder whether perhaps Farael's strange attack on me may be explained that way. Farael - perhaps you are the False Seer and dreamt me a wolf? Another shot in the dark, and really not particularly relevant as I don't consider Farael a likely suspect at this point. If he's a wolf, he's quite a bold one. Thanks to SPM for correcting a misperception that I shared - that Boromir was forced to vote for Gil. Nonetheless, unless Boromir is a wolf playing a very elaborate strategy, it seems to me that he was under the impression, at least as of yesterDAY, that he had to vote for Gil to save himself. Which more or less makes his vote look unsuspicious to me. Now perhaps I can correct a misperception on SPM's part. He wrote: Quote:
Sorry if I seem to be ranting at this point. I understand that there are all kinds of fallacies one can fall into in dealing with statistics. But the False Seer's sole usefulness at this point is that of a known innocent (and that's still assuming that the wolves are not so bold as to attempt an impersonation). Another small bone to pick with SPM. He wrote: Quote:
Edit: Crossed with everything after post 132. I must learn brevity. Last edited by Aiwendil; 02-22-2006 at 09:27 PM. |
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02-22-2006, 08:53 PM | #140 |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Ciudad de Lago del Sal
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Sorry for the double post, but we must also look at those who made safe votes for those not in the race to be lynched.
edit: cross-posted, it wasn't a double post.
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I am a sick man ... I am a spiteful man. I am an unpleasant man. I think my liver is diseased. Fyodor Dostoevsky "Notes From the Underground" |
02-22-2006, 08:54 PM | #141 | ||
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: abaft the beam
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Having fun wolfing it to the bitter end, I see, gaur-ancalime (lmp, ww13) |
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02-22-2006, 09:04 PM | #142 | |
Itinerant Songster
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: The Edge of Faerie
Posts: 7,066
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Okay, I've only read as far as the first 2 paragraphs of post # 125 (of course who's going to believe that?), so someone may have already taken care of this next step for me: Based on yesterday's voting and discussions: Probably innocent: SPM Farael Aiwendil Spawn Anguirel ... these folks were helpful and insightful or, in the case of Farael, too aggressive to be construed to be a werewolf; still, that aggressiveness is a useful thing to hide behind as long as you don't get bitten by it by a Day 1 bandwagon, which she avoided. maybe innocent: Glirdan Nilpy Lhuna Eomer Tar ....I just don't have enough to go on to be sure about these folks. They each were the first to vote for their particular choice, which does not necessarily mean they're not werewolves, but voting for previously offered lynchees is more likely what a werewolf would do. suspicious: mormegil - 2nd vote for Gil-galad .... very safe; in addition, his typical pattern for Day One seemed a little more pat than usual, a little less forthright. I thought this (if you dare believe me) before his accusation against me. By the way, that very accusation doesn't necessarily make me wonder, because this is also a typical part of his pattern. However, added to the strangely more mysterious than usual nature of his Day One suspect list and follow-ups, it makes me wonder. Formendacil - 2nd vote for Boromir .... very safe. - and his posting seemed a little odd too. How so? Well, not as thoroughgoing as I would expect of him. Kath - 3rd vote for Gil-galad ... a safe place to put one's vote. I find no other oddities surrounding her, so she is not as suspicious to me as the first two above. Garin - 3rd vote for Boromir ... he's new to me, so I don't really have much of a basis to say anything useful. Celuien - 4th vote for Gil-galad .... that's it regarding her too. Another safe vote, but not as safe as the 2nd and 3rd votes. Boromir - 5th vote for Gil-galad .... obviously to save his neck. He's not going to believe me when I say that I actually, believe it or not, didn't make the really obvious connection that he was the only one who had to vote when I tied things up. I got caught in the moment with less than a half hour ago and just plain missed it. My sorry. Quite embarrassing, especially considering that some of you seem to find me so "persuasive" or a "rival" So that's who I'm looking at. My three main suspects are thus: Mormegil, Formendacil, & Boromir. Yikes! Now there's a strong werewolf team! Heaven (or the Valar, Valinor, and all the rest of ye merry saints and angels, or whatever mythic paraphernalia we adhere to in this village) help us! Last edited by littlemanpoet; 02-22-2006 at 09:42 PM. |
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02-22-2006, 09:10 PM | #143 | |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Ciudad de Lago del Sal
Posts: 331
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The False Seer is now but an innocent villager with no reason to PM the Mod Gods unless he or she likes feeling cheated. Our Falsie should be more inclined to follow his or her intuition and logic rather than these horrid random dreams. Does Falsie want to be perpetually stuck in day ONE? I think not. Once a fool realizes he or she was the fool.... walk away. Sorry Mods.
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I am a sick man ... I am a spiteful man. I am an unpleasant man. I think my liver is diseased. Fyodor Dostoevsky "Notes From the Underground" |
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02-22-2006, 09:20 PM | #144 | |
Itinerant Songster
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: The Edge of Faerie
Posts: 7,066
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02-22-2006, 09:25 PM | #145 |
Itinerant Songster
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: The Edge of Faerie
Posts: 7,066
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Post # 137 seems a little too "both sides against the middle" to me. Reminds me of a certain "Gaur-ancalime" from another village I failed to survive in a past life. Add to that the fact that he was convenient #3 voter for Boromir, and he seems more suspicous to me. Would a werewolf vote for a fellow werewolf? Yes, especially if they waited to be amongst the last to vote so that the voted for werewolf could counter the effects of the fellow werewolf's vote; risky, but not beyond the pale; especially since it tends to separate the two from each other in other villagers' minds. So I'm not done suspecting Boromir, but Garin seems even more suspicious.
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02-22-2006, 09:35 PM | #146 | |||
Itinerant Songster
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: The Edge of Faerie
Posts: 7,066
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20, now infamous as your "as usual" post, you built a theme and variations, to a crescendo of "too usual", instilling fear. I picked up on that: "Why is Boromir trying to subtly create an additional level of fear in regard to these other people? What's his game?" And the you added "this false seer scares me" ... there's that fear again. I wondered why. Perhaps Boro is actually a little scared of this situation. But maybe he's setting something up very subtly. Hmmmm! So I concluded that you were at least as suspicious as anybody else on Day 1, and more than most. As I've said before, once I make a decision, I ride it, maybe too hard. There you have it. |
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02-22-2006, 09:45 PM | #147 |
Energetic Essence
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Well, I must make my vote and it shall be for the one whom I've really suspected the most toDay.
++Lhunardawen I've said my reasons earlier. Good luck everyone
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I'm going to buy you a kitty, I'm going to let you fall in love with the kitty, and one cold, winter night, I'm going to steal into your house and punch you in the face! Fenris Wolf
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02-22-2006, 09:47 PM | #148 |
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,648
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Sign: You by evil pinwheel
Wow LMP that was unexpected! I was called a "crackpot", "bliddy idjit", and a "Blind fool". Also it was implied that I do not work, however I do and actually that explains some of my different behavior that you noted I demonstrated on Day 1. I have a new job that keeps me busier than my previous one. But I really don't know what to make of it all. I've seen you get frustrated before and rant thusly. Even though you implied that I am incredibly obtuse, dim witted and that my logic is specious, my suspicions of you are somewhat lessened, even though you find me too thick to change. Notice that I said lessened and not vanished. I still hold Tar-A in fairly high suspicion. The whole Garin chat hasn't done much to convince me of his guilt. There are many others that I would still like to hear from. As for my vote for Gil, I don't regret it. Gil always is somewhat an unwitting cobbler so to eliminate him early is not as bad as it could be. Oh and for the record I had forgotten the double lynch rule too. I guess I'm use to double lynching being allowed.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
02-22-2006, 09:49 PM | #149 | |
Itinerant Songster
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: The Edge of Faerie
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Hmmmm.....Now, how would Morm and Boro construe what I just wrote as wolfish? What possible use could a dreaming false seer be to the werewolves, keeping quiet? Seems a wash to me, unless the false seer gets lucky.... |
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02-22-2006, 09:53 PM | #150 |
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,648
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My opinion of the false seer is that they are fairly useless now. I don't see how their dreams can be useful. We won't know if they are right or wrong until the person is dead. It might be helpful for him/her to come forward but I think it's up to him/her to do it. Likely they will be killed that night or the next but at least it will avert the killing of our true gifteds.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
02-22-2006, 10:00 PM | #151 | |
Late Istar
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 2,224
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LMP wrote:
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02-22-2006, 10:09 PM | #152 | ||
Itinerant Songster
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Location: The Edge of Faerie
Posts: 7,066
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02-22-2006, 10:37 PM | #153 |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Ciudad de Lago del Sal
Posts: 331
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As I said earlier, "Falsie" is now an Ordo. They must think this way. Logic will serve him or her better than chasing rainbows. Littlemanpoet seems to have changed his mind on any usefulness the False Seer might serve but the fact that he still seemed open to the option of Falsie coming forth is suspicious. It would do nothing but bringing a powerless innocent forth and making him or her prime wolf bait. Plus, it would be easy for a wolf to claim themselves the False Seer because we would have nothing to prove or disprove his or her innocence or guilt.
Lay low our precious fool.
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I am a sick man ... I am a spiteful man. I am an unpleasant man. I think my liver is diseased. Fyodor Dostoevsky "Notes From the Underground" |
02-22-2006, 11:21 PM | #154 |
Late Istar
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 2,224
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Sign: Hoi! I wilt my pun
A few more thoughts for now - I'll be gone for a while but back a few hours before the end of the DAY. So LMP has responded to the accusations coming his way. He sounds genuine to me. But, then, I don't doubt that he'd make a clever wolf, or that he'd be able to modulate the tone of his posts to suit his needs. And I keep coming back to what I mentioned earlier - that the one place where a wolf can't hide is in his vote - though he can, of course, try to explain it away the next DAY. LMP claims that he suspected Boromir before Ang posted his suspicion; he then expresses exasperation when this claim is doubted. Now, LMP, it seems to me that no one is denying that you could very well have come to suspect Boromir before Ang's post. For my part, your story (i.e. simply not enough time to post earlier) is a perfectly believable one. But that doesn't mean that it's true. The fact remains that we had no evidence that you suspected Boromir until very late in the DAY. Surely you acknowledge that, from out perspective, your claim to have suspected him earlier could be a wolf's frantic attempt at backpedaling and getting out of a tight squeeze. Having said that, I don't think I'll be voting for LMP today. My reasoning is that, so far, the only real piece of evidence I can find against him is his sudden anti-Boromir stance. Everywhere else, he has (to me at least) appeared to be a genuinely helpful innocent. If he's a wolf, he's doing a remarkable job of playing that role. As of toDAY, I think there are others suspects that it would be better to look at. I don't quite know what to make of Tar-Ancalime. When I return, I'll probably go over her posts thus far more carefully. There was something in the way she was acting yesterDAY that seemed fairly lupine to me. I suppose it was that she looked like she was consciously maneuvering. That was enough for my vote on DAY 1, but now I feel I must go back over what she's said and see if I can make this feeling more concrete. Which leaves Form and Garin as my top suspects for the moment, for reasons stated earlier. |
02-22-2006, 11:40 PM | #155 | |||
Dead Serious
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Now, for a few comments regarding the False Seer and his/her dreams... You do realize, of course, that even if the False Seer reveals themselves, they don't necessarily have to tell us the truth regarding who they dreamed about! If they had strong suspicions regarding who was innocent and who was guilty, all they would have to do is change the names around, and no one would be the wiser. And, if the False Seer was an insightful player, there's no reason why their guesses couldn't be even more accurate than the false answers. That said, I agree that the only value of the False Seer is a proven innocent. However, I've never seen any indication that proven innocents are useful before Day 4 or 5- when they can become a rallying point for a shrunken village. That said, I would caution the False Seer to wait a couple days before coming forth, but if they choose to do so now, they can at least rest assured that the Ranger can protect them for a night...
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I prefer history, true or feigned.
Last edited by Formendacil; 02-22-2006 at 11:40 PM. Reason: To Fix Quote Tags |
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02-23-2006, 12:36 AM | #156 |
Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
Posts: 5,312
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Sign: Sorry, we're closed.
[No anagrams there. Well, maybe there is. ]
Okay, voting time. Of lmp . . . I remember my (and his) first game, where he was a Werewolf. He wasn't so aggressive then, I think, until the later DAYs. I don't know why I said that, but someone might find this amusing. Or helpful, though I rather doubt it. He's very defensive, but then again, I think I'm the only one who doesn't go über-defensive when under intense suspicion. I fear this DAY 1 would turn into a 'Lynch him!'-'No, lynch him!' between lmp and Boro that would cost us two innocents and enough confusion for the Werewolves to hide behind in. How about we back off for a while here? tar-ancalime's 'random' vote is still troubling, although since it was DAY 1, it could have been pure randomness. She's still very much suspicious, but I will not vote for her toDAY. Garin is Garin is Garin. Is flip-floppy and somewhat confusing. Is Garin. Again, my eyes are on him, but I will not clamour for his hanging. Formendacil, based on the only game I've played with him, seems to imitate me ( ) on DAY 1s, being somewhat kooky and all. If he has fangs I think someone will see it later. For now, you're safe. Now, Anguirel. He started the Boromir bandwaggon, with a reason which (to me) seems pulled out of thin air. Or paranoia. Or something. I think he just inflated the shock value of a single post that most of us have ignored. (Maybe it's our fault?) Enedwaith, since he's the one most suspicious to me it seems apt to vote for him. ++Anguirel
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フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
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02-23-2006, 01:22 AM | #157 |
Hauntress of the Havens
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: IN it, but not OF it
Posts: 2,538
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*sighs exasperatedly*
Are you all blind? Or are you simply incapable of utilizing your mental faculties? I said I am a princess. A royal invader girl. Capiche?
But although those who voted for me yesterDay deserve thirty lashes with the whip - if not more -, *sigh* I'm inclined to think they're innocent. Yes, even you, you traitor of a priest-slash-big-brother-slash-promise-breaker. After all, I was, in some way, a bit deserving of votes that Day. And while somehow I'm flattered that you think that a bold princess wolf can pull off what I did then, thanks, but no thanks. I can command a royal anyone to turn me into a wolf if I want to. One thing I'm just wondering is this: If you thought my vote for Glirdan was a safe vote, don't you think it was an equally safe act to vote for me? A rhetorical question. I'll be back after reading and pondering on everything that's already been said. By the way, bravo Wolves. Luck or skill, may you have less of it from this moment on. Poor Holbytlass! An honorable burial is due her; I shall have it arranged as soon as possible. |
02-23-2006, 01:31 AM | #158 |
Hauntress of the Havens
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: IN it, but not OF it
Posts: 2,538
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Oh, and another thing. I was talkative at that time because all you other weird people from weird time zones are silent or sleeping or whatever you were doing. And since you haven't talked much prior to my arrival, naturally I'd have more posts than you all have...until you arrive. But look now, I'm sure I'm way down the list.
Glirdan, I think your vote for me toDay is a bit justified. I think you're innocent. That, or a dumb wolf messing up with the wrong girl. |
02-23-2006, 01:49 AM | #159 |
Byronic Brand
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: The 1590s
Posts: 2,778
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Thanks Nilp . I hope your theory gathers a little support-it will probably increase my life expectancy rather than the reverse...
As for Boromir...too many of you seem to be treating it as though Boromir was lynched and found innocent. This did not occur. He is still as suspicious as ever in my eyes. I'm sure he'll understand. I just can't afford to ignore the blighter. Once you take your eyes off Boromir's worthy, solid posts, they won't be drawn back again by lustre of shock till it's too late. I observed that even for Day 1-and like Eomer I don't see why Day 1 shouldn't be a day for discussion like any other-his posts were unusually flimsy. What do I mean by saying they seemed sensible, Boromir? Well, actually I said they were constructed to look sensible. They didn't draw much attention by laying out accusations and theories. They contained a large proportion of role-play, not that I'm against that. They just looked...unnoticeable and slight. Then I said to myself "Wait, Anguirel old chap! You're just about to ignore one of the most devious players in this village! Now, for the sake of argument...what will happen if you shine a light on these posts and their failings by gunning for their author?" So I did. The unnoticeable nature of the posts had backfired. My suspicions struck a chord with many others. I believe I saw the signs which often tell a cautious, wise wolf. And I'm not willing to back down yet. On another note, I agree with Aiwendil that the Seer is now of no use but that he or she can "prove" his or her own innocence. However, I've been convinced that he or she should lie low longer till the village is smaller and his/her revelation can be of more use.
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02-23-2006, 02:49 AM | #160 |
Hauntress of the Havens
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: IN it, but not OF it
Posts: 2,538
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Some incredibly far-fetched theories from Day 1:
(I will laugh hard at those who take any of these TOO seriously.) 1. Anguirel-Glirdan association of some sort. Remember the former's defense of the latter after my vote for him, in which Anguirel used Glirdan's job as the musician? I don't know. 2. Farael's the Hunter. He mentioned the role as a substituent to one of his organic chemicals, and could have been a not-so-subtle Day 1 hint. 3. Suspicious: Elempi - Talk about a spirited defense! Could be another one of your ancestors' infamous rants, but Elemdoubleyou can certainly pull of being defensive. Anguirel - The Boromir vote could have been a result of reading too much into one post. Maybe not. Initiating the bandwagon (as it turned out later) is a bold wolf move, but hey, you can manage it. I guess. Kath and Celuien - Those votes for Gil were TOO safe. Garin - History would make this doubtful, but Werewolf roles don't have memories. tar-ancalime - Flip-flops come to mind. 4. Innocents: SpM, morm, Eomer, Aiwendil, spawn, Boromir88, Glirdan, Farael. Of course my position entitles me to a change of mind - a privilege which I might use in a little while, when I've recovered from information overload. Oh., As a lot have said before me, the False Seer is now completely useless as a gifted. I'd advise them to stay hidden for now, though, and just speak up when they're in danger of a lynch. |
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