Werewolf IX: the Saga Owns You and You Know It

[Glirdan]

I see you are all still suspicous of me, for voting for Bergil yesterday. Let me make my mind clearer to you all. I said I wouldn't vote for those who haven't spoken and I go vote for Bergil. As I said, I didn't have a lot of time to vote because I had no chance after that to come back to the square and I had no evidence against Kitanna (may you rest in peace) to lynch her. And as I also said, if Bergil was the one to get the noose, and he was innocent, I said that I would be terribly sorry for being part of the group that condemned him to that fate. I now wish I could have taken my vote back and gone for someone else. I see now that what I've done has landed me in a pile of mud.

As for my suspicions, Alcarillo is at the head of my list because

1) He was the leader for the lynching of Bergil

2) Today we TGWBS dead and we know how much of a rivlary they had for the position of mayor. I will definetly be keeping an eye on him. I have no other suspicions as of yet.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Alcarillo is on many a suspicious list today. He does look suspicious, but less so than Glirdan and wilwa, in my opinion. He could just be, after all, the perfect target for the wolves to frame.

Yes, I must admit he did flip-flop on his choice of suspects, but he did not put the name of Bergil in the chopping block first. That makes him less suspicious for me.

. . . Unless all the wolves were active, and he thought he could bait one of the villagers to name a quiet person. Then he killed short prince that NIGHT so he can point to a frame-up the next DAY.

The plot sickens . . .

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by the phantom

You missed the point. The "risk" I was taking was making myself a target for the wolves.

If innocent, you were a target anyway. In those circumstances, I simply cannot see how "volunteering" for Ranger protection can be regarded as selfless.

Originally Posted by the phantom

That sort of goes without saying.

No. It is always worth reiterating. It is all to easy in this situation to magnify this or that piece of circumstantial evidence and get hung up on one person or a group of people, while those who do little to arouse suspicion are able to fly under the radar. I speak from experience. Just because I identify my main suspects at any given time, it does not mean that I am not constantly assessing the case against every other villager as our discussion develops. And I would counsel every innocent villager to adopt the same course.

Originally Posted by the phantom

One of them says something that should make you reconsider where you have placed them ...

Save that Alcarillo has lessened in my supicions from yester-Day, my list was in no particular order. It comprises those who voted for Bergil. I doubt that more than one of them, two tops, is a Wolf.

For the record, I also regard the following as suspicious (as I did yesterday):

Meneltarmacil
Kath
Shelob

Because they all seem to be maintaining a presence in the village square without giving too much away.

And of course, my dear phantom, I also suspect you for the reasons that I have stated.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Is that answer suitable? I hope so, because it is the truth.

No, not really. I am always wary of those who do not vote because it leaves no trail. A rather Wolfish trait, to my mind.

[the phantom]

my list was in no particular order

Then never mind my comment about having someone placed too high or too low. However, you are still missing something one of them said. I will say no more on that matter, though.

I am always wary of those who do not vote because it leaves no trail. A rather Wolfish trait, to my mind.

But not a phantomish trait.

When I play the part of the bad guy in the village, I am always sure to leave a clear trail or two- that leads to the wrong place, of course. Surely you and a few other experienced villagers know that from previous encounters with me in other villages.

beyond that though I felt like I was watching Phantom vs. Saucepan Man tennis

Ha ha!

Sorry 'bout that, Shelob. I'll try to stop fighting with him.

(but he started it!)

[the phantom]

It's been quiet for about three hours now. Please, if you have something to say go ahead and say it. I would like to have a few comments to read when I return.

I'll be back in about eight hours. Don't burn the village down while I am away.

[Cailín]

What a night! Both the Hunter & Cobbler dead, but still no clear trail that will lead us to the true werecreatures.

Alcarillo's position does not look good right now. I am not sure what to think - it looks like he has been set up. He would be just too obvious a wolf. If he's innocent, Azaelia must also be innocent - sure, she voted for Bergil, but she had to do something to prevent the doublelynching of two innocents on day 1.

At one point, Kath & Bergil & Alcarillo each had two votes, then Holbytlass came and broke the tie, thus saving Kath (and Alcarillo of course, but he has been saved more than once). The Kath - Holbytlass connection might just be accidentical, since Holbytlass was already planning to vote for Bergil. In hindsight not the best idea, but just as likely the act of a desperate villager as of a werewolf.

Cailin she's all over the board with her suspicions and accusations, is most suspicious of Menel based on "pointedly" by Folwren. Which I found to be nothing substantial than votes Glirdan.

Hmpf I just speak my mind and actually need to voice all my thoughts as to prevent from me totally confusing myself, as so many in this village already seem to be doing. Anyway, there was so much early suspicion of Menel for no clear reason that I thought there might be a subtle Seer's voice involved. I realize that is not very substantial, but there was not much else to go on.
I still distrust Glirdan, though, even though our Cobbler seemed to have thought him innocent (or just a safe vote). He's now very suspicious of Alcarillo, because of his vote for Bergil, even though he voted for him as well... If TGWBS's death was indeed a set up by the wolves, Glirdan is definitely going along with that. If Alcarillo is lynched today and found innocent, he is one we should be looking at.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by the phantom

It's been quiet for about three hours now.

It's too quiet. I don't like it.

That tumbleweed will be back soon.

Originally Posted by Cailín

If he's innocent, Azaelia must also be innocent - sure, she voted for Bergil, but she had to do something to prevent the doublelynching of two innocents on day 1.

I don't see how that necessarily follows. A Wolf may well want to avoid creating a double-lynching situation in order to avoid doing anything that looks suspicious. And, there were still 6 votes uncast when Azaelia voted. She may well have been waiting to vote near the deadline to try to make sure that no Wolf faced the gallows as a result of those uncast votes.

Originally Posted by Cailín

The Kath - Holbytlass connection might just be accidentical, since Holbytlass was already planning to vote for Bergil. In hindsight not the best idea, but just as likely the act of a desperate villager as of a werewolf.

Actually, I think that it's a definate possibility. As far as I can see neither of them has voiced any supicions of the other.

Originally Posted by Cailín

I still distrust Glirdan, though, even though our Cobbler seemed to have thought him innocent (or just a safe vote). He's now very suspicious of Alcarillo, because of his vote for Bergil, even though he voted for him as well... If TGWBS's death was indeed a set up by the wolves, Glirdan is definitely going along with that.

If TGWBS's death was an attempt to set up Alcarillo, then it is worth looking at those who have been gunning for Alcarillo to-Day. I would say that this applies to the following:

Gil-Galad
Azaelia
Folwren and
Glirdan.

Interesting how Glirdan's name keeps popping up whenever I try to spot potentially suspicious behaviour. Only problem is he seems the type who is easily swayed towards whatever is the current theory. Which makes him the perfect target for Wolvish manipulation ...

I'm wondering whether we should lynch Alcarillo simply because, whether he is innocent or gulity, his death will tell us more than the death of any other villager. I know it sounds harsh, but the chances are we will end up lynching an innocent to-Day anyway. The problem with that of course is that he may be gifted ...

[Meneltarmacil]

My prime suspect at this point would be Glirdan, due to his serious inconsistency in who he accuses, as if he's not sure who would look more suspicious and make him look more innocent. He may be a werebeast trying to blend in. I still think Kath ought to be watched for the same reasons I stated yesterDay.

[WaynetheGoblin]

If you go back to post 107 saucey said I only put 2 people on my sucpect list.That is because thats all I suspected then. Now I suspect the same as saucey.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Interesting how Glirdan's name keeps popping up whenever I try to spot potentially suspicious behaviour. Only problem is he seems the type who is easily swayed towards whatever is the current theory. Which makes him the perfect target for Wolvish manipulation ...

I have been considering this myself, too. I found a similar way of behaving in some of my own posts and his constant swaying might be more the whims of a terribly confused newbie as the suspicious behavior of a werecreature.

I'm wondering whether we should lynch Alcarillo simply because, whether he is innocent or gulity, his death will tell us more than the death of any other villager. I know it sounds harsh, but the chances are we will end up lynching an innocent to-Day anyway. The problem with that of course is that he may be gifted ...

It's dangerous, surely, but so far, it seems to be the best thing to do. Except: I fear that this is what the werecreatures want us to do. Especially if they suspect Alcarillo might be gifted (though that seems unlikely).

Tis very quiet here now indeed. I´m still waiting to hear from a lot of people...

[mormegil]

In regard to the Alcarillo plot I think Gil-Galad and Azaelia are both attempting to sway early opinion toward lynching him. Gil-Galad is notoriously quiet and yet at the start of day 2 he has 3 of the first 5 posts and who has the other 2? Azaelia. Both of whom bring up Alcarillo's name and place him at the top of their list. I believe Alcarillo to be most likely innocent.

As far as Glirdan is concerned I think he is just swayed by popular opinion. I think I may be going for Azaelia first but keeping an eye on Gil too. Of course I won't take my eye off anyone!

[the phantom]

If Alcarillo is lynched today and found innocent, he (Glirdan) is one we should be looking at.

I'm not so sure. If Alca turns out to be innocent, then that would mean both of the top two vote getters yesterday were innocent- which would mean that the wolves would not have felt the need to vote for Bergil and pad his lead over Alca because they wouldn't care which of the two bit the dust.

Interesting how Glirdan's name keeps popping up whenever I try to spot potentially suspicious behaviour. Only problem is he seems the type who is easily swayed towards whatever is the current theory. Which makes him the perfect target for Wolvish manipulation ...

I found a similar way of behaving in some of my own posts and his constant swaying might be more the whims of a terribly confused newbie as the suspicious behavior of a werecreature

As far as Glirdan is concerned I think he is just swayed by popular opinion.

I have the same doubts about Glirdan's guilt that are expressed by SPM, Cailin, and morm.

I'm wondering whether we should lynch Alcarillo simply because, whether he is innocent or gulity, his death will tell us more than the death of any other villager. I know it sounds harsh, but the chances are we will end up lynching an innocent to-Day anyway. The problem with that of course is that he may be gifted ...

My thoughts exactly. I figured it would come to this, which is why I didn't feel the need to join in the push against Alca. I assumed his lynching was, perhaps, inevitable given the nature of the voting yesterday. It hardly matters that tgwbs was killed by the wolves- that doesn't sway me towards Alca or away from him. To me, the best reason to lynch Alca would be to obtain information.

Of course, I'd much rather lynch someone I suspect, but my suspicions are so shallow at this point that I don't really have much of a better target to offer.

Shelob voted for me, so naturally I'd like to suspect her (though I know there's probably no true reason to).

Alca voted for a candidate he figured would get jumped on by others. This might be guilty behavior- however he is showing a lot of faith in his fellow villagers to finish the job. Would a wolf be so willing to leave things to chance? I wouldn't have myself.

Wilwa was the second to hop on the Bergil vote. Was she a wolf trying to put an innocent safely in the lead, or an innocent figuring we have to lynch someone, it might as well be Bergil?

Wayne stepped in and voted for Alca, putting him into a tie with Bergil. Was Wayne an innocent thinking I don't want to vote for Bergil- Alca seems like a better idea, or a wolf thinking I think I should tie up the lead between two innocents?

Holby put Bergil into the lead over Kath and Anca. Was she a wolf saving one of her fellow wolf's skin, or was she an innocent that didn't want to see a triple lynching and figured Bergil was as good as anyone?

Azaelia's last minute vote seems a bit odd. Why vote so late for someone who already appears to be on their way to the gallows? Was she an innocent who felt it her duty to vote, and so she, not knowing in the least who to vote for, simply tacked on her vote to the favorite of the day? Or was she a wolf and felt that her fellow wolf (Alca) was too close to the lead for comfort, and wanted to pad Bergil's total?

Any thoughts on the possibilities that I have offered?

[Kath]

Three deaths! But at least one was in our favour. Shame we had to lose the Hunter though.

This Holby-Kath theory seems a little tenuous to me (though of course I would disagree with it) because Holby had been voicing her suspicions of Bergil for quite a lot of the day as I recall.

My suspicions still lie with Menel and mormegil though it is difficult to find reasons to support this. Menel never truly answered any accusations thrown at him, even when my reasoning was explained. I would still like to hear from him. mormegil also, he voted for me pretty much out of the blue, very soon after Menel's vote. I realise that this has been said before but I've only just got back from tending to my poor trampled flowers and I need to catch up a bit.

Of course I also believe that anyone who voted for Bergil bears watching - that being Alcarillo, Wilwa. Holby and Azaelia, though they could just be advocates of the 'lynch the quiet ones' brigade. See, that is exactly what I was trying to avoid yesterday! Lynching someone just because they are quiet regardless of the fact that we had no reason to suspect Bergil since he had said nothing that could be in the slightest bit incriminating. So whoever it was that said I was being 'too fierce' yesterday, there is the reason why.

So, those on my suspect list are:
Menel
mormegil

I don't have any clear thoughts about the Bergil-voters, I don't really feel suspicious of any of them so I won't put them on the list as of yet.

Oh one thing though, it does seem like the bear has, whether on purpose or accidentally, begun to follow the phantom's plan! And yet somehow that doesn't allay my fears that he is simply a very clever were-creature.

[Folwren]

I've been questioned several times why I didn't vote yesterday. My answer is simple and totally unconnected with the game-

At three o'clock our time (four o'clock game time, I think), the entire family (that includes me) piled into the car and went to the river for swimming and dinner...didn't arrive back home until almost seven (therefore almost eight) and I could not cast my vote. I tried to before leaving, but Mom need help preparing dinner. You can question my honestly about all this, but why do so? If you ask me who I would have voted for, I'll answer without a blush - Alcarrilo. The nerve he had to ask for people's vote after one of his citizens died is possitively revolting in itself. He seemed heartless and careless that someone died.

Said by the Saucepan Man:
If TGWBS's death was an attempt to set up Alcarillo, then it is worth looking at those who have been gunning for Alcarillo to-Day. I would say that this applies to the following...

Aye, I've been pushing for him as suspectible (in fact, I've as good as said that I won't waver from my belief that he's guilty), but I've no design. TGWBS was killed last night by the wolves...why? I didn't read all of Day 1's talking because I have little time to do so, so I don't know what all he said. But TGWBS is smart and observant, and if the wolves are smart, too, they'll knock down all the intelligent people. I don't see why they would bother to kill TGWBS only to frame Alcarillo. That may have been one reason why it might have been done (if the thought even entered their heads), but I doubt it was the only one. Besides that, if Alcarillo is indeed guilty, TGWBS was one of the people (was he the first?) to vote for Alcarillo to be lynched and Alcarillo felt threatened because of it (he was very near becoming the rope's victim) why shouldn't he convince all his canine friends to help him overthrow a dangerous adversairy?

If Alcarillo ends up to be an innocent I shall be very much surprised and very much confused. I feel dumb to say that I find this all very difficult to follow and suspicions are hard to make...and for me, once they're made, hard to shake. If I had more time, which I don't, I would be doing better. As it is, time is short, and Math is calling.

-- Folwren

[the phantom]

TGWBS was killed last night by the wolves...why?

I think it is good to continue asking that question.

The biggest reason for the wolves to kill is to take out the seer. Yesterday, tgwbs defined Alca as his top suspect quite clearly. It made him look like he could possibly be the seer. And if he was the seer, his message was clear- Alca was bad.

Now, if Alca is indeed a wolf then it is quite easy to understand why tgwbs was killed- the wolves suspected him as the seer.

But... if Alca isn't a wolf- why was tgwbs killed? Was it a random choice? I doubt that the wolves were entirely random in their selection.

We shall see who they kill tonight. I have an idea of who I would kill if I was a wolf- I will see if the wolves do what I would do. If they don't, and instead kill someone entirely random (someone who has barely posted and hasn't said much in the way of suspicions), then we will have to rethink the way we are thinking about this particular group of beasts (and realize that catching the first one might be a bit tough).

If I was a wolf, I would not have killed Alca or tgwbs because the two of them were sure to be attacking each other in the future. Wolves want to keep people around who have their eyes on each other because they are sure to stir up suspicion against each other- and wolves love having suspicious people around. It makes it easier to hide.

So why kill tgwbs?

It either has to be that they thought he was the seer (which means that Alca is almost certainly guilty), or they wanted to set Alca up (which means that Alca is probably innocent, unless it was a double bluff), or that they wanted to kill randomly to avoid leaving a trail.

Any thoughts?

And yet somehow that doesn't allay my fears that he (phantom) is simply a very clever were-creature.

Clever? Yeah. Were-creature? Nope.

If I were a clever were-creature, at this point in the game my plans and manipulations would still be far too subtle and clever to spot- and you know it, m'dear.

[Folwren]

Observed by the Phantom:
It either has to be that they thought he was the seer (which means that Alca is almost certainly guilty), or they wanted to set Alca up (which means that Alca is probably innocent, unless it was a double bluff), or that they wanted to kill randomly to avoid leaving a trail.

Could you please explain to me why killing TGWBS would set up Alca?

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Shelob voted for me, so naturally I'd like to suspect her (though I know there's probably no true reason to).

Alca voted for a candidate he figured would get jumped on by others. This might be guilty behavior- however he is showing a lot of faith in his fellow villagers to finish the job. Would a wolf be so willing to leave things to chance? I wouldn't have myself.

While it's true it's not very wolfish to start leading an attack on an innocent, at the time that Alcarillo voted, it seemed like everyone was half-convinced to vote for Bergil. Maybe Alcarillo was a werewolf just giving that last little push to make Bergil the suspect of the day. Or maybe not.

Wilwa was the second to hop on the Bergil vote. Was she a wolf trying to put an innocent safely in the lead, or an innocent figuring we have to lynch someone, it might as well be Bergil?

It seems to me a little too obvious when two wolves start off by voting for an innocent.

Wayne stepped in and voted for Alca, putting him into a tie with Bergil. Was Wayne an innocent thinking I don't want to vote for Bergil- Alca seems like a better idea, or a wolf thinking I think I should tie up the lead between two innocents?

That seems far-fetched. Wayne was only fifth to vote, far too early to be thinking about strategy or try to enforce a double lynching. I think Wayne might have sympathized with Bergil, since they were both in danger of being lynched solely because of their silence.

Holby put Bergil into the lead over Kath and Anca. Was she a wolf saving one of her fellow wolf's skin, or was she an innocent that didn't want to see a triple lynching and figured Bergil was as good as anyone?

I really wouldn't know. Of course, Holby suspects me and since I know I'm innocent, that makes me slightly less inclined to believe her.

Azaelia's last minute vote seems a bit odd. Why vote so late for someone who already appears to be on their way to the gallows? Was she an innocent who felt it her duty to vote, and so she, not knowing in the least who to vote for, simply tacked on her vote to the favorite of the day? Or was she a wolf and felt that her fellow wolf (Alca) was too close to the lead for comfort, and wanted to pad Bergil's total?

At the time Azaelia voted, there was only one minute left till the end of Day 1. It seems very unlikely she felt uneasy because at that moment, Alca was not in danger of being lynched at all anymore. But she said she panicked, so she might just have wanted to be sure.

A lot of these questions would be answered by finding out one thing: is Alcarillo an innocent?

As for Kath - it's hard to believe she and Holby are in league together. Kath was fiercely against lynching Bergil, while Holby started the 'let's kill Bergil' campaign. But they might just be really sneaky.

[Cailín]

Cross posted with the phantom and Folwren

As to why the wolves decided to kill TGWBS: might have been just because he's a clever player and no one suspected him so far. Neither did he voice a lot of real suspicions (except for Alca), so it was a pretty safe kill, I guess.

[the phantom]

Could you please explain to me why killing TGWBS would set up Alca?

Simply because their names are linked (as political opponents). The death of one automatically makes everyone think of the opponent. It's a natural reaction.

It seems to me a little too obvious when two wolves start off by voting for an innocent.

That is most likely true. I wasn't trying to suggest that.

Wayne was only fifth to vote, far too early to be thinking about strategy or try to enforce a double lynching.

Too early to enforce a double lynching- definitely. Too early for strategy- I'm not so sure.

If no wolves had been voted on at that point, I think it would be acceptable for a wolf to elevate another innocent to the front, especially if the other two wolves were still out there holding their votes.

It seems very unlikely she (Azalia) felt uneasy because at that moment, Alca was not in danger of being lynched at all anymore.

That is not true. At that point, Bergil was only ahead by one vote- and five people (besides Azalia) had not voted. Any of the five could have popped in and cast a vote for Alca, which would have tied him for the lead- in other words, killed him.

Alca was in danger to the end.

[mormegil]

Kath I will respond to your queries by saying that Menel and I voted 2 minutes apart which I would call a cross post. I noticed that he voted the same way right after I posted. And you said that my vote for you came out of the blue. My vote was in post# 81 but in post# 64 I said

Kath is worrying me a bit. Again something just doesn't sit right and another gut feeling

I just haven't been able to feel good about you yet. I'm not 100% sure as to why but there seems to be some inconsistency. I explained my vote for you in #81 saying that you voted for the other person I suspected most (Menel) and therefore I thought you to be the more likely person, hoping that I would jump on your bandwagon.

Now I could be wrong but I think there is more than meets the eye with Kath.

I would posit that Kath and Azaelia are wolves. They are avoiding the mention of each other and both are suspcious yet disconnected.

It seems as though the current thought is "kill Alcarillo, innocent or guilty, and let's find out for sure" I can see that some information could be gleened from this, but I for one loathe killing people I find innocent (i.e. Bergil). I would much rather kill somebody we find connected to Alcarillo and determine from their. Such as Azaelia.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I have the same doubts about Glirdan's guilt that are expressed by SPM, Cailin, and morm.

I am prepared to give Glirdan the benefit of the doubt for another Day. He seems too easily swayed by the opinion of others. But if he continues to flip-flop, there will come a time when he will reach the top of my suspect list.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Shelob voted for me, so naturally I'd like to suspect her (though I know there's probably no true reason to).

The only reason to suspect Shelob at the moment is that she is doing a good job of "flying under the radar" - staying active and voicing suspicions without giving too much away.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Alca voted for a candidate he figured would get jumped on by others. This might be guilty behavior- however he is showing a lot of faith in his fellow villagers to finish the job. Would a wolf be so willing to leave things to chance? I wouldn't have myself.

I find Alcarillo's vote yesterday suspicious, but I find it hard to believe that he would, on Night 2, be so bold to kill the villager who voted for him yesterday and against whom he was notoriously antagonistic.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Wilwa was the second to hop on the Bergil vote. Was she a wolf trying to put an innocent safely in the lead, or an innocent figuring we have to lynch someone, it might as well be Bergil?

To my mind she is the least suspicious of those who voted for Bergil. If Alcarillo is guilty, it's unlikely that another Wolf would have followed his vote so soon after he had cast it. If he is innocent, then a Wolf might just as likely voted for him or (more likely) added another innocent to the mix.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Wayne stepped in and voted for Alca, putting him into a tie with Bergil. Was Wayne an innocent thinking I don't want to vote for Bergil- Alca seems like a better idea, or a wolf thinking I think I should tie up the lead between two innocents?

Alcarillo was one of the leading accusers of Wayne early in the Day. I tend to think Wayne was just voting in response to that. Of course, if Alcarillo is guilty, Wayne is likely to be innocent of Wolvery.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Holby put Bergil into the lead over Kath and Anca. Was she a wolf saving one of her fellow wolf's skin, or was she an innocent that didn't want to see a triple lynching and figured Bergil was as good as anyone?

If either Alcarillo or Kath is guilty then Holby will have some serious questions to answer. With (as far as she knew) 10 votes still to go, I don't see that saving a double-lynching comes into it. But, for now, I am prepared to give her the benefit of the doubt.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Azaelia's last minute vote seems a bit odd. Why vote so late for someone who already appears to be on their way to the gallows? Was she an innocent who felt it her duty to vote, and so she, not knowing in the least who to vote for, simply tacked on her vote to the favorite of the day? Or was she a wolf and felt that her fellow wolf (Alca) was too close to the lead for comfort, and wanted to pad Bergil's total?

As I said earlier, Azaelia's last minute vote is very strange. She said that she thought the Wolves had been active during the Day and yet voted for someone who had not spoken all Day, thus sealing his fate. As the phantom has noted, with 5 votes left to cast it remained possible that other villagers would show up at the end of the Day to vote for Alcarillo (or even Kath or Glirdan, both of whom had 2 votes) so she could well have been voting to save a fellow Wolf.

And even if Alcarillo is innocent, she still remains suspicious, given that she and Gil-Galad both led the accusations against Alcarillo at the start of to-Day - which might be considered Wolfish if TGWBS's death was an attempt to set him up.

I am very wary of Azaelia.

Originally Posted by Kath

My suspicions still lie with Menel and mormegil though it is difficult to find reasons to support this.

I have few suspicions of mormegil at this stage. He seems to be genuine in his efforts to address our perilous situation. And the only basis for suspecting Menel is that he is posting frequently but contributing little. Which also applies to you, Kath. I would prefer to see a little solid reasoning behind your accusations.

Originally Posted by Folwren

TGWBS was killed last night by the wolves...why?

There are a number of reasons. He could have been killed because he was close to the truth (which would point to Alcarillo's guilt). As the phantom said, the Wolves may have thought him the Seer. Or he could have been killed to set up Alcarillo, who was the leading vote-getter yester-Day behing Bergil. Or it may simply have been because TGWBS said very little yester-Day and therefore did not leave much of a trail.

Originally Posted by Folwren

Could you please explain to me why killing TGWBS would set up Alca?

Because the only trail that TGWBS did leave points towards Alcarillo. You yourself have accused Alcarillo on the basis of TGWBS‘s death. If Alcarillo is innocent, the Wolves would have known that TGWBS‘s death would lead to such accusations against him and make him (rather than a Wolf) a likely candidate for lynching to-Day.

As an aside, it is interesting that Alcarillo was not TGWBS's Hunter target. Something obviously made him change his mind, although he unfortunately chose the wrong alternative target.

Originally Posted by mormegil

It seems as though the current thought is "kill Alcarillo, innocent or guilty, and let's find out for sure" I can see that some information could be gleened from this, but I for one loathe killing people I find innocent (i.e. Bergil).

I share your unease, particularly as, on balance, I tend to think Alcarillo innocent (of Wolvery at least). But, unless we are able identify a beast with some degree of certainty, I fear that lynching Alcarillo might be the best plan we have. He is at the centre of most theories being put forward. If he is guilty, the votes cast yester-Day become very illuminating as it is likely that at least one of his fellow Wolves was trying to save him. On the other hand, if he is innocent, then those who have been strongly accusing him to-Day will fall under suspicion on the basis that TGWBS's death was probably a set-up. And there is always a possibility that he's the Bear, although it's a long shot.

If I had to name the villager most likely to be a Wolf in my opinion, it would be Azaelia. But I am by no means certain and I am not sure how much we would learn from her death if she turns out to be innocent.

[mormegil]

I have two things I would like to address now.

I recently thought of a frightening possibility--that is both SpM and the phantom are wolves and working together. It would seem at first glance that they are not but upon reading closer they are becoming more agreeable after initially having some hostility. Distance yourself dramatically at the start and slowly merge into the same, seems a good strategy for two very intelligent people who are well known to disagree. I don't think I am correct in this but I wanted to raise the idea because if it were true the ramifications would be frightening. They are both very clever and can easily sway most people. So the two combined would be incredible. See how they weave this web and we all follow. Again it's unlikely that this is the case but I wanted to mention it. If they are innocent their teamwork is much to our advantage.

Secondly where is durelin? I noticed I had her vote incorrect. I thought she voted Bergil but according to SpM it was SpM. Why did she delete that vote? And where is she today?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

I recently thought of a frightening possibility--that is both SpM and the phantom are wolves and working together.

I am not a Wolf. I cannot speak for the phantom. But I will work with him for as long as he is putting forward sensible analysis which seems to me to be serving the village's best interests. That said, I am still keeping a cautious eye on him.

Originally Posted by mormegil

I thought she voted Bergil but according to SpM it was SpM.

Durelin always votes for me. It's traditional.

I suspect that she deleted her vote because it came after the Day had ended. I see little of consequence in her having done so. Her silence so far to-Day, however, is slightly more worrying.

[Folwren]

Brought to the surface by mormegil:
I recently thought of a frightening possibility--that is both SpM and the phantom are wolves and working together. It would seem at first glance that they are not but upon reading closer they are becoming more agreeable after initially having some hostility. Distance yourself dramatically at the start and slowly merge into the same, seems a good strategy for two very intelligent people who are well known to disagree. I don't think I am correct in this but I wanted to raise the idea because if it were true the ramifications would be frightening. They are both very clever and can easily sway most people. So the two combined would be incredible. See how they weave this web and we all follow. Again it's unlikely that this is the case but I wanted to mention it. If they are innocent their teamwork is much to our advantage.

Looky here, man, if it turns out that they are not in league with one another, and they are both innocent villagers, or, better yet, one or both of them is gifted, you've just possibly given ground for people to suspect you.

They are indeed both very smart, and possibly very dangerous for the side that they oppose...but I have not found anything in either of their posts to be doubtful of. It is possible that one is a wolf or bear, but I wouldn't go so far as to say that both are.

- Folwren

[Folwren]

Cross posted with SpM...

I suspect that she deleted her vote because it came after the Day had ended. I see little of consequence in her having done so. Her silence so far to-Day, however, is slightly more worrying.

She's been absent a lot from the entire BDs lately. It may have nothing to do with her character here.

[Cailín]

They could both very likely be the bear. Just as any of us. I have no evidence of yet to find them wolfish. But mormegil is right - we shouldn't let our guards down. Both are intelligent players and aside from the Shiriffs and the Seer, nobody knows who's innocent besides themselves.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Folwren

Looky here, man, if it turns out that they are not in league with one another, and they are both innocent villagers, or, better yet, one or both of them is gifted, you've just possibly given ground for people to suspect you.

They are indeed both very smart, and possibly very dangerous for the side that they oppose...but I have not found anything in either of their posts to be doubtful of. It is possible that one is a wolf or bear, but I wouldn't go so far as to say that both are.

- Folwren

That was a rather vehement defense for somebody other than yourself. This is for everyone, I said it's only a possibility but scary enough that I wanted to post it. If suspicion comes my way so be it. I will continue my efforts, weak though they be, at helping our village out. That's right our village. Though I am new here I have grown to love Swankytown and consider it my own.

[Holbytlass]

Nothing profound here, so don't hold your breath (maybe your nose, though)...

When I voted Bergil, since that's who I said I would, I didn't tally up votes or see who voted who as long as it wasn't my name. So seeing my vote as some sort of tie-breaker is coincidence.

A SaucePan Man and Phantom league, now that is frightening, but I still, at this point, have no suspicions against either. I fully admit I have been doo-ped before.

So for me, in this vast quagmire of theories and scenarious, will be sticking with my suspicions of Wilwarin and most likely voting for her.

[the phantom]

I recently thought of a frightening possibility--that is both SpM and the phantom are wolves and working together.

Ha ha! Yes, that would be frightening, and I'd be delighted if we were teamed together sometime in the future.

But in this game, I assure you we are not.

Distance yourself dramatically at the start and slowly merge into the same, seems a good strategy for two very intelligent people who are well known to disagree.

Yes, that might be a good strategy, however I have not followed that strategy. I don't believe I have ever been overly hostile to SP yesterday or today, and so I have not distanced myself "dramatically" as you put it.

See how they weave this web and we all follow.

I don't really think people are following us. I am merely providing as much analysis as I possibly can and I am also trying to feel other people out and determine who I might want to follow, or at least give a long listen to.

Again it's unlikely that this is the case but I wanted to mention it.

Yes, it is unlikely, but I don't mind you mentioning it. You wouldn't be fulfilling your duty as a villager if you thought of it but didn't say anything.

I cannot speak for the phantom. But I will work with him for as long as he is putting forward sensible analysis which seems to me to be serving the village's best interests.

How sensible of you.

That said, I am still keeping a cautious eye on him.

Heh. I imagine everyone is, in the back of their minds.

It's my fault for having a suspicious screen name like "the phantom".

They could both very likely be the bear.

What? We are both the bear? If so, then I believe the mod made a mistake and assigned one too many "bear" roles.

Just kidding, I know what you meant. And to that, I will only answer that I thought the idea of me being the bear was pretty well taken care of yesterday.

aside from the Shiriffs and the Seer, nobody knows who's innocent besides themselves

It's true that nobody besides the gifted can know someone else is innocent, but it is entirely possible to be mostly sure of someone's innocence. For instance, if two villagers stepped forward and said "We are the Shirriffs", and no one challenged them, we could then be relatively confident that the two were innocent despite the fact we aren't gifted.

However, if you think you have spotted an innocent, particularly a gifted innocent, you might not want to point them out, since the wolves will then know who to try and kill.

The fact is, as "clever" as Saucy and I are, the most we can do is analyse, which is not nearly as dangerous to the wolves as what a gifted can do to them, thus the wolves will always be looking for hints about who is gifted and making their best guess at killing them.

Everyone keep that in mind as you post.

[Kath]

Time to answer some questions it seems.

Ok morm your cross posting theory I will buy but I still don't entirely get the vote. Since you knew that I did not trust you why would you assume that I would want you to 'jump on your bandwagon' as you say? If anything I would want you away from the votes so that if you were later lynched and revealed to be a wolf I would be in no way linked to you. I don't want to be linked to you. In answer to your other point I have mentioned Azaelia once, in my last post in fact. But I haven't really talked about her because I don't find her suspicious. Ok, yes, she voted for Bergil but so did a lot of people. She voted late but some people didn't vote at all. Durelin voted after the deadline and then retracted it but there is little suspicion surrounding her.

Now just a moment Saucepan Man I have a bone to pick with you. You say this:

I have few suspicions of mormegil at this stage. He seems to be genuine in his efforts to address our perilous situation. And the only basis for suspecting Menel is that he is posting frequently but contributing little. Which also applies to you, Kath. I would prefer to see a little solid reasoning behind your accusations.

Which implies that you are suspicious of me due to this lack of solid reasoning. In that case may I please draw your eye to this post by mormegil, who used it in his reasoning for voting for me. By your logic then you would also have to be suspicious of him as this was all the reason he has given.

Kath is worrying me a bit. Again something just doesn't sit right and another gut feeling

As to making posts that are full of substance that is difficult to do when people like the phantom, morm and SpM are around because they tend to say everything there is to say in one long post. If I were then to follow on with an analysis of my own it would be very similar to everything posted before except for different suspicions, which can be shown in a simple list. I give explanations where I can but I'm afraid that it is often gut feeling, or some undertone that I have seen in a post that makes me suspicious of a person. I can no more explain that in words by quoting those of my suspects than I can magically mend those flowers of mine! But I shall try at least to find some evidence for you.

My suspicion of Menel remains and I think that's fair at the moment seeing as he still hasn't replied in any way to the accusations made against him. Here is his only post today:

My prime suspect at this point would be Glirdan, due to his serious inconsistency in who he accuses, as if he's not sure who would look more suspicious and make him look more innocent. He may be a werebeast trying to blend in. I still think Kath ought to be watched for the same reasons I stated yesterDay.

Glirdan suspicious, Kath bears watching. And those reasons were:

Kath accused me shortly after Morm and SpM made their lighthearted accusations and Shelob seems to have joined in on it as well. I think at least one of these people may be a bandwagoning werebeast. And as stated above, Kath wants people to vote for the phantom as the Cobbler when he is taking a position completely contrary to what the Cobbler should be doing. Granted, it may be a double-bluff and he is clever enough to pull one off so the possibility is not out of my mind.

Yes I accused him but I have explained the reasons behind this before. No I did not want people to vote for the phantom because I thought he was, I quite categorically stated that I did not believe him to be. As I had been trying to explain all DAY I was simply trying to stop people from voting for those who were silent as it was unfair and not always a safe move. That, I think, was proved by Bergil's death.

And since we're talking about Menel, there was a pretty dramatic U-turn going on in his posts which I find quite suspicious. He goes from this where he lists his suspicions:

SamwiseGamgee, because of his attack on the phantom.

Bergil and Gil-Galad, due to their silence. WaynetheGoblin is a similar case, but he can be excused somewhat as stated earlier.

And the phantom himself does stand a slight chance of being the Bear, though I think it more likely that he is an innocent villager.

To his final post when he votes for me. I hadn't been on his list until then!

So Saucepan Man, that have content enough for you or must I dissect morm's every post in the hope of finding something concrete which, since he is a clever little bunny, I think will be unlikely to happen?

[wilwarin538]

I see my vote has cast some suspicion on me. I will explain my vote. Bergil hadn't said a thing yesterday, as you all know, and he didn't post a warning of his absence. Though now we know it was because he was confused of the times.

This might sound mean but its true. We had to lynch someone. Bergil hadn't said anything so at the time I didn't really feel guilty about voting for him. Besides there was suspicion around other people, and I was only the second one to vote for him, the remaining votes could have easily been given to someone else.

Now that I see he was innocent and I see his reason for why he didn't post, I truely feel terrible. I will definetly have a better reason for my voting from now on.

Now my suspicions; Zali's vote was very last minute and very strange. I don't think Alcarillo is a wolf because I do not believe that the wolves would kill someone who was only suspicious of one person, especially if that one person was a lycan. I think Glirdan is just trying to be on everyone's good side, now that could make him an innocent wanting to last a while in his first game or a wolf trying to evade suspicion.

So for now I am suspicious of Azealia and I'm 50/50 for Glirdan.

[Meneltarmacil]

Kath, I apologize if I misinterpreted your post. I was not trying to twist your words around or anything. What accusations are you talking about that I haven't addressed yet? I already explained that they were just occupation-related. The only other ones, besides yours, were mainly people agreeing with the lighthearted accusations without really saying why.

As for who I suspect:
Folwren appears somewhat suspicious to me at this point, and my suspicions are growing by the minute. He (She? I'm not sure) quickly jumps on the idea that I am the Bear, yet the idea that I was guilty was only made lightheartedly and I do not recall him giving much of a reason for his suspicion. Later, I notice him claiming that Alcarillo is a wolf (but only after the idea was proposed earlier), though it would take a very bold wolf to cast suspicion on oneself like this. He then jumps at yet another idea, this being the SpM/Phantom-as-wolves suggestion by mormegil. He seems to avoid proposing ideas of his own and instead just nods his head in agreement with others. I think he may be a werebeast trying to stay out of trouble by agreeing with everybody.

[Meneltarmacil]

Oh, and I've been at school all day, so I really couldn't respond until just a little while ago.

[the phantom]

About your suspicions, Kath, I haven't really been thinking about Menel, so I don't know how much there is to your claim. However, I will say that there are individuals that I suspect more than him at this time and thus I will not vote for Menel today.

Concerning morm, you could very well be right but I'm inclined to disagree. morm has been in a village with me before, and so he knows that I sometimes have a tendancy to snap back at people who point a finger at me- and that I'm pretty good at convincing the rest of the village to go along with me.

I doubt he would have been willing to point a finger at Sauce and I the way he did if he was a wolf or bear. No, no- he would've done all he could to avoid becoming my opponent and would follow my lead so long as I was on the wrong trail (which everyone is on early in the game).

Now, you can call this evidence flimsy if you wish, but I believe it is true.

As far as who to lynch today, there aren't many people I am willing to vote for. Alca seems like the logical choice. Even though the odds say he isn't guilty, his death might perhaps be informative.

I suppose I might be willing to support a lynching of Azaelia since others have made good points about her.

There are others that I might be able to make a weak case for (Folwren, Holby and Kath, for instance), but I am not willing to vote for them on such slim suspicions. For one thing, their deaths just wouldn't be as informative as others.

I have to leave for work very very shortly, so if you have any last minute thing to say, get it in before I cast my vote (in about ten minutes).

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

So for me, in this vast quagmire of theories and scenarious, will be sticking with my suspicions of Wilwarin and most likely voting for her.

Could you explain a bit more exactly why you suspect wilwa, Holby? The only reasons you have given, as far as I can see, are that she seems to be "aligning" with you (whatever that means) and her vote for Bergil (which, as I said, I find the least suspicious of the Bergil votes). That does seem to me to be rather scant evidence on which to base a vote.

Originally Posted by Kath

But I haven't really talked about her (Azaelia) because I don't find her suspicious.

Any particular reason? Her last minute "panic" vote yester-Day looks very suspicious to me.

Originally Posted by Kath

Which implies that you are suspicious of me due to this lack of solid reasoning. In that case may I please draw your eye to this post by mormegil, who used it in his reasoning for voting for me. By your logic then you would also have to be suspicious of him as this was all the reason he has given.

Hehe. I thought that you might spot that. How very observant of you. The fact is that my impression of mormegil to date is of someone trying to help out the village. Yes, he puts forward his gut instincts. But he also puts forward analysis and ideas, which is what I like to see. You, on the other hand, seemed merely to be posting your suspicions without giving us any real idea of the reasoning behind your conclusions. In short, you fitted my conception of "Wolf-like" behaviour - posting often enough not to attract suspicion as a "quiet one", but not really giving us much to work with. Meneltarmacil and Shelob also fit that pattern in my view.

Originally Posted by Kath

As to making posts that are full of substance that is difficult to do when people like the phantom, morm and SpM are around because they tend to say everything there is to say in one long post.

But there is nothing to stop you saying whether you agree or disagree with what we (or any of the villagers) are saying and, if so, why.

Having said that, I am grateful to you for your further explanation of why you find Menel suspicious. That sort of thing is much more helpful.

Originally Posted by Menel

He (Folwren) then jumps at yet another idea, this being the SpM/Phantom-as-wolves suggestion by mormegil.

Actually, I rather got the impression that he was challenging morm's suggestion.

A further thought on the idea of lynching Alcarillo for the information it will tell us. One drawback, if most villagers vote for him, is that to-Day's vote would then tell us very little, particularly if he turns out to be innocent. I have no objection to Alcarillo being lynched because, either way, I think that it will tell us a lot. But I certainly would not want to see all the votes go his way. Much better to spread the votes around in an effort to force the Wolves into doing something which might give them away.

[the phantom]

I have to go, now. Here is my vote-
+ + Alcarillo

I hope there are no hard feelings, Alca, but you must understand there isn't a better option that I can see. If you are innocent, then you can rest assured that I will try my best to make your death useful to the village if you end up being lynched today.

Now, if we are wrong today and then wrong again tomorrow, we will be in big trouble. Since there is a double killing each night, that would mean that, on DAY 4, the ratio would be 10 villagers, 3 wolves, 1 bear. Only having fourteen people with three of them being wolves is very bad.

If neither we nor the bear manages to kill a wolf by DAY 4, then the wolves will be very well off.

However, if we can just find one wolf, the other wolves might begin to fall into place.

Seer, use your dream wisely. You may not have many chances left. The wolves are sure to be trying to kill you.

[Glirdan]

I tell you now that I will not be moving from my suspicions of Alca. Ever since the death of TGWBS, he(?) became the top person on my suspicion list. Out of all the villagers, who has the most motive to want TGWBS dead? None other than Alca because of the fact that TGWBS wanted to replace him as mayor. Alca so far is most suspicious.

None of the others seem remotely suspicous, unless it's Durelin due to his scilence today.

I will wait a little longer before I cast my vote.

[Folwren]

Originally Posted by Menel
He (Folwren) then jumps at yet another idea, this being the SpM/Phantom-as-wolves suggestion by mormegil.

Originically posted by SpM:
Actually, I rather got the impression that he was challenging morm's suggestion.

Exactly so. I found Morm's suggestion surprising, but not altogether impossible (though very nearly so).

I don't believe that I've flip flopped once, Menel. My first accusation was against you, to be sure, but that was after some observations just as cold as Alcarillo's.

Originally posted by Menel:
Later, I notice him claiming that Alcarillo is a wolf (but only after the idea was proposed earlier), though it would take a very bold wolf to cast suspicion on oneself like this.

It was not 'Later', as you put it, it was in the same post. I felt a strange dislike for his politicianing skills from his first post on. I made only one post yesterDAY and that was where I voiced the two people I suspected. Today, I've held through with my reasoning set on one person, up till now, and I can tell you, I'm not one to suddenly decide something because someone throws it out there.

By Menel:
He seems to avoid proposing ideas of his own and instead just nods his head in agreement with others. I think he may be a werebeast trying to stay out of trouble by agreeing with everybody.

I beg to differ. I have put up plenty of opposition to different things. I can't say I agree that to kill TGWBS was an attempt to frame Alcarillo, though many others have mentioned this. (And you'll laugh at me when it's made clear that Alcarillo is one of my main suspects because of his death.) I don't understand why wolves should vote for Bergil when he was an innocent, silent citizen. They might have pounced on anyone else. If they wanted Alcarillo done in by the villagers, why not take advantage of so many votes and have him lynched yesterday instead of framing him with TGWBS's death? It might have gone the other way, you know. Many people have accused Glirdan of possible werewolvishness, have I ever mentioned him?

And you may ask why I answer your accusation with such fierceness, and I'll answer with - I don't want to be killed. Anyone can see that your accusation is totally in earnest, and it could make sense, if those points against me were true.

What's more, many of our village numbers have been already killed (a considerable amount, anyway), and it would be a shame and pity to waste your research on me, because I am absolutely and entirely innocent. You'll find no interior motives in any of my words or posts...I merely wish to clean this village of werecreatures.

-------------------------------

I realize that I am putting up considerable risk if I decide to vote for Alcarillo this evening. What if he is, after all, innocent? Then whoever has voted for him will be suspected. Perhaps I should wait...I can afford that. I have, however, unearthed another villlager to be wary of - Kath.

Originally posted by Kath:
Ok morm your cross posting theory I will buy but I still don't entirely get the vote. Since you knew that I did not trust you why would you assume that I would want you to 'jump on your bandwagon' as you say? If anything I would want you away from the votes so that if you were later lynched and revealed to be a wolf I would be in no way linked to you. I don't want to be linked to you. In answer to your other point I have mentioned Azaelia once, in my last post in fact. But I haven't really talked about her because I don't find her suspicious. Ok, yes, she voted for Bergil but so did a lot of people. She voted late but some people didn't vote at all.

The cross posting theory doesn't make any sense. Why should she buy it with the little evidence that Morm put out? Is she hoping to cast doubt on the two of them (Phantom and SpM)? If those two are both villagers and they are both reasoning against the wolves, won't the wolves want them doubted and hopefully someday dead?

And people's suspicion towards Azaelia were not only for her vote for Bergil......

There are things have to be explained. No, of course you don't want to be linked with Mormegil. No one wants to be linked with anybody who turns out to be a werewolf. But anybody might be a werewolf in this game. Anybody. So, according to your reasoning in this paragraph, if you didn't want to vote with Morm because if he's someday lynched, you had jolly well better not vote with anybody because they may, too, turn out to be a were creature.

-- Folwren

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

I get to be like phantom and make a long post to defend myself!

Originally Posted by Sauce

As I said earlier, Azaelia's last minute vote is very strange. She said that she thought the Wolves had been active during the Day and yet voted for someone who had not spoken all Day, thus sealing his fate. As the phantom has noted, with 5 votes left to cast it remained possible that other villagers would show up at the end of the Day to vote for Alcarillo (or even Kath or Glirdan, both of whom had 2 votes) so she could well have been voting to save a fellow Wolf.

I knew it would look strange as soon as I made it. I had thought it odd that so few people had voted when it was so far along, and I was waiting to see if anyone else materialized before I cast my vote. I could make neither head nor tail of anyone's actions over the course of the day, and I did, indeed, panic when I realized it was 7:29 and I still hadn't posted. I saw a dangerous tie, and I thought incorrectly that it would be the lesser of two evils to vote for the person who had never posted rather than Alcarillo, who I thought was just flying blind like the rest of us. I did (and do) believe that the wolves are active among us, but as to who they are, I'm clueless, since I am not one of them.

Originally Posted by Sauce

If I had to name the villager most likely to be a Wolf in my opinion, it would be Azaelia. But I am by no means certain and I am not sure how much we would learn from her death if she turns out to be innocent.

You'd learn nothing from my death (which seems rather likely) since I'm innocent. (And by saying this I have just made myself even more suspicious. Being quiet is suspicious, voting is suspicious, defending oneself is suspicious...What can a girl do?)

Originally Posted by Mormegil

It seems as though the current thought is "kill Alcarillo, innocent or guilty, and let's find out for sure" I can see that some information could be gleened from this, but I for one loathe killing people I find innocent (i.e. Bergil). I would much rather kill somebody we find connected to Alcarillo and determine from their. Such as Azaelia.

I'm curious. What does my death prove, assuming (truthfully) that I am innocent? And how, exactly, am I connected to Alcarillo ?

Originally Posted by Phantom

Azaelia's last minute vote seems a bit odd.
*Snip*
Was she an innocent who felt it her duty to vote, and so she, not knowing in the least who to vote for, simply tacked on her vote to the favorite of the day?

Bingo. I panicked and did just that.

Edit: Cross-posted with Folwren and Mormegil.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

As for who I suspect:
Folwren appears somewhat suspicious to me at this point, and my suspicions are growing by the minute. He (She? I'm not sure) quickly jumps on the idea that I am the Bear, yet the idea that I was guilty was only made lightheartedly and I do not recall him giving much of a reason for his suspicion. Later, I notice him claiming that Alcarillo is a wolf (but only after the idea was proposed earlier), though it would take a very bold wolf to cast suspicion on oneself like this. He then jumps at yet another idea, this being the SpM/Phantom-as-wolves suggestion by mormegil. He seems to avoid proposing ideas of his own and instead just nods his head in agreement with others. I think he may be a werebeast trying to stay out of trouble by agreeing with everybody.

I actually find Folwren suspcious myself but she definetely did not agree with me

Originally Posted by Folwren

Looky here, man, if it turns out that they are not in league with one another, and they are both innocent villagers, or, better yet, one or both of them is gifted, you've just possibly given ground for people to suspect you.

They are indeed both very smart, and possibly very dangerous for the side that they oppose...but I have not found anything in either of their posts to be doubtful of. It is possible that one is a wolf or bear, but I wouldn't go so far as to say that both are.

After which I quoted her and gave a reply to her post. Either you are not reading carefully or hoping that our opinions are swayed. This could be for bad or good but you caused me to raise my eyebrow when I read this. I think I will keep a closer eye on you my friend.

I will either be voting for Azaelia today because I think she is guilty or Alcarillo be he could be guilty but as spoken his death will shed light upon our situation.

Edit: Cross posted with Folwren