Werewolf IX: the Saga Owns You and You Know It

[the guy who be short]

Hail, fellow villagers.

I have returned from business early to horror and dismay! Unfortunately, I must turn in soon, and have had only enough time to glance at the earlier proceedings, so handily noted down.

I do not know who the wolves are. I do not know who the gifted's are. I can either vote blindly, most likely get it wrong, lead the voting, probably be lynched myself, and be mistrusted or I can note vote at all.

The latter seems a lot more appealing, and would be beneficial to my continued existance. However, it would mean I was not performing my social duties.

So vote I must.

++Alcarillo for being incompetant in protecting us from wolves!

It's as good a vote as any this Day.

Good Night.

[mormegil]

I find all this talk of the phantom to be a bit ridiculous. I cannot really believe him to be a werecreature or the cobbler. No I've spent some time with the fellow during my stay in this twisted little village and I have to say that no matter what he does he appears suspicious. So the fact that he appears 'normal' seems a good sign that he's innocent. So I'm pretty sure that he's not guilty. If anything the only thing I find cobblerish is that his normal behavior took up so much talk for one day. Now I would envision a cobbler phantom being a bit more subtle till near the end. I think his idea is somewhat sound and understandable. Basically he is asking the bear to benefit him/herself and the village as well. I don't think the cobbler would ask the bear to kill the werewolves (remember he would be on their team really). So let's stop diverting our attention from the real issue and get off this mentioning the phantom in nearly every post.

TGWBS has some pretty nefarious politics if he will openly admit he wants a competitor killed.

I'm glad to see that the village would like some of those who are quiet to talk a bit more. I don't think you need to be as loud or long as SpM, the phantom or myself for example but say at least something to give us an idication as to where you stand. Especially with so many people around having a good percentage being essentially silent is rather tedious.

I guess I will hold that I find Menel suspicious, if for no other reason than a gut feeling. Sometimes you just have to trust your own instincts. Why trusting those has kept me alive so far.

I don't think Shelob is really guilty and I find that she is contributing much to the discussion.

Kath is worrying me a bit. Again something just doesn't sit right and another gut feeling.

Wayne--Let him live at least one more day

So currently I think I will vote either Kath or Menel.

[Gil-Galad]

Wayne and Bergil are indeed quiet, as myself am as well and i admit that... i shall review and vote shortly

[mormegil]

I was thinking about it a bit more and I think that lynching Bergil may be a mistake. He's new in many respects and ought to give him the benefit of the doubt. Perhaps he had some urgent carpentry business that needed to be dealt with and was unable to inform anybody of his absence. The Ent's have some wisdom on no being too hasty in matters. I think that is a lesson we could take now.

[the phantom]

Ha ha! This is hilarious.

Some of you guys think I am the cobbler, and a couple still think I might be the bear.

I'm currently preparing a post to put down those ideas. Wait and read it, and after you read it ask yourself if you really believe I'm a bad guy.

[the phantom]

Now, I would like to put a stop to the idea that I am the bear. I thought I settled the matter fairly well in this post (read it again if you wish), but if you want further evidence look at what someone else said.

Posted by Holby-

As for myself I am most incline to believe The Phantom.

Thank you.

While I do think he is smart for a double-bluff...

...true...

...I think he definitely would think of all possibilities about drawing attention to himself, especially from the seer

Exactly! Of course I would've thought of that, and therefore would not have done it. Your analysis is perfect, Holby.

If I am a bear or wolf then I am a foolish one- and anyone who knows me knows I am not foolish. I'm not trying to sound arrogant, but the fact is I could do a much better job at werewolfing or werebearing than what I have done today, and anyone who has seen me in action knows it.

Now, I will get rid of the idea that I am the cobbler.

First, since when does the cobbler want the werecreatures to kill each other? He/she is on their side, so why would he/she ask the werebear to try and kill the wolves?

He/she wouldn't. He/she doesn't want any werecreatures to die.

Also- and most importantly- the cobbler's purpose is to cause confusion. That's what he/she is good for. Now- why in the world would a cobbler attempt to mess with people and confuse them so EARLY? At this point, we are all plenty confused! We have no information to work with- no votes, no deaths, no anything!

I ask you, what fool of a cobbler would try and make a move at this point in the game? It is irrational. A cobbler would want to bide his time and try and strike a blow at a critical juncture. Now is not a critical time. Now is simply a shot in the dark. A cobbler can't do much damage this early, so why try to and thus call attention to himself/herself?

Once again, I'm not trying to sound arrogant, but if I was the cobbler I would be playing much better than this, and you know it.

[wilwarin538]

I am not suspicious at all of phantom and I never have been. Bergil has not said any thing, and even Wayne has defended himself somewhat. So Bergil has my vote today,

++Bergil

I just hope that we get lucky and he is a wolf or a bear.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

hmmm... I don't right now see much danger from Phantom...His plan is helpful to us supposing it works, and therefore, at least for now, I am not suspicious that he is a wolf or the cobbler or what have you.

I, too, am going to give Wayne a break toDAY. It's his first game and no one wants to be killed off on their first day. His tooth comment was strange, but I agree with everyone else that it was inexperience. (but the way to fix inexperience is to post, so where are you, Wayne, and what is your opinion?)

Besides, Bergil still hasn't shown his face at all, not even to make a two-line nothing post, and has not explained his absence. Unless he shows up soon, he will probably get my vote. Not that I find him suspicious because of silence (he's *too* silent for that), but out of lack of anyone else better to vote for so early on.

[WaynetheGoblin]

I am sorry for my absence, it wasn't very smart of me. I am grateful that you all gave me an extra day. I will make it up to you. My vote is for:

++Alcarillo

Because I've got a bad feeling about him.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I'm back!

Sorry for not contributing as much as I would have liked. Those mushrooms can't be left unharvested and it's been a long day in the fields.

Mushroom anyone?

My thoughts on the proceedings to date:

The phantom: Not a Bear for the reasons that he and others have stated. The Bear will not be doing anything to draw attention to him/her-self to-Day. Not the Cobbler because he put forward an ant-Wolf plan and, in any event, the Cobbler does not need to draw attention to him/her-self to-Day. If he's bluffing, he's a Wolf. After all, the Bear will already have concluded that trying to kill the Wolves is to his/her benefit, and so a Wolfish phantom loses nothing by saying it, but can use it to point to his innocence. But I tend to think that he is merely an innocent villager putting forward a sensible proposal to the Bear.

Glirdan has got my suspicions up. He(?) talks a lot but does little more than agree with what others have posted and repeat the accusations and points that others have made. Might he be a beast trying to stay inconspicuous?

Meneltarmacil has done little to counter the (admittedly light-hearted) accusations made against him. He merely asks the reason for the accusations. Is he a beast trying not to say too much and thus avoid being caught out?

Kath suggests that people vote for the phantom if they think that he's the Cobbler (as many seem to). The phantom is almost certainly not the Cobbler. Is she suggesting that people vote for him because she is a lycanthrope and wants to try to eliminate a potentially dangerous opponent while avoiding openly accusing him herself?

As for those who have said little or nothing to date, I will not be holding this against them. Not only does it seem unfair to vote for those who have not had an opportunity to defend themselves, but it seems unlikely to me that a beast would do such a thing on the first Day. As has been shown, it draws too much suspicion. And Wayne is probably just a new guy slightly unsure of himself. He may be worth a vote in a Day or two if he continues to be unhelpful. But not yet.

I plan on voting for someone who has contributed reasonably regularly without giving too much away. Glirdan, Menel and Kath seem to fit this category nicely, although I will review proceedings to see whether there might be any other suitable candidates.

[Kath]

Kath suggests that people vote for the phantom if they think that he's the Cobbler (as many seem to). The phantom is almost certainly not the Cobbler. Is she suggesting that people vote for him because she is a lycanthrope and wants to try to eliminate a potentially dangerous opponent while avoiding openly accusing him herself?

No Mr Saucepan Man I am not. What I was trying to do was put right something I think shouldn't happen, the habit of not voting for a person just because they are loud. the phantom was simply an example since at the time some people believed him to be suspicious.

I think I am going to have to vote now as I daren't miss the deadline and I do have to go to bed at some point! My suspicions earlier lay upon Menel, SamwiseGamgee and mormegil and I have to say that I haven't really felt that any of them have cleared themselves, at least in my view. But I have to vote for one and as I can't choose I will simply pick the first from the list so:

++MENELTARMACIL

[Cailín]

Well, I have been rereading this discussion, but don't feel all the much wiser for it. However, bed is calling, and I will have to make a decision now.

Folwren, Durelin, Nilp, Gil-Galad, Wayne and Bergil all have said too little or nothing at all to raise my suspicion. Voting for any of them doesn't seem like a sensible thing to do if we want to save our beloved village as soon as possible.

Holbytlass, TGWBS, The Saucepan Man, Kitanna, wilwarin538 and Shelob all seem innocent to me, so far.

Meneltarmacil has been accused many times, especially of being the bear and even rather pointedly by Folwren. This certainly draws attention and they may have seen things I missed.

Alcarillo, our dear mayor, has not behaved very tactfully today. But even Presidents make political mistakes every now and then and this is a rather stressful period for him. So, I have no real suspicion towards him.

Kath has been highly opinionated, too fierce maybe. Perhaps she took the attack on her garden very personally? I will be watching her, that's certain.

The Phantom drew the most attention today, but even though his plan is not extremely helpful, it is not a bad plan either. I hope the Werebear sees the sense in it, too.

Azaelia of Willowbottom... a bad feeling. I can't help it. Too innocent with all her cute little flowers.

mormegil is a newcomer in our town and I am surprised not all fingers pointed towards him immediately. He definitely seems to have a strong position, even though he has only been with us for a short time, and therefore could be dangerous.

SamwiseGamgee, I just don't know about him. A lot of you seem to suspect him, but his reaction to the phantom and Kath's accusation seemed too rash for a well-thinking wolf.

Glirdan is my main suspect. He has been pointing fingers a lot, especially to the quiet, inexperienced ones, and seems to want to be good friends with everybody, agreeing and nodding a lot, changing his mind randomly... I am aware I did so myself a few times, but I was suffering from a great shock, you know. Since I will be retiring soon, I will now vote for

++GLIRDAN

and hope the best of it.

[the phantom]

Mr. Saucepan, your assesment of my behavior is correct. I am certainly not the cobbler or bear- wolf is the only possibility, and that possibility is slim seeing as I have attracted attention to myself- which puts me high up on the seer's list to dream about at night. Logically, only someone with nothing to hide would put forth an attention getting plan on the first day.

I don't have too much time right now (I'm trying to divide my attention between this and my daily duties), but someone might want to take a look back at reactions to me. As Saucy said, to the werecreatures I am "a potentially dangerous opponent", so would that make the beasts try to get me lynched?

On the other hand, they might try and buddy up to me during the day in hopes that I would ignore them.

I have more to say before the day is done, but I will wait a bit. I'm not sure if I will vote or not. It depends on who is on the chopping block, whether or not my vote will matter, and if I feel inclined to lynch someone over someone else (which isn't likely, seeing as we have no concrete evidence at this time).

Also, keeping the votes low might help find the wolves. You see, when the voting is very close, the wolves feel more pressure to help out one of their fellows if he/she has a couple votes. Where as, if one person has nine votes and the second place vote getter has only three, if the person with three is a wolf then the other wolves know he/she is safe because the other person is so far ahead.

Perhaps I'm not explaining terribly well, but I think you understand what I am getting at. Having multiple candidates rather than one bandwagon vote-getter sometimes makes the individual votes more meaningful (more telling).

[Cailín]

My fellow villagers, sorry for my almost complete silence up till now, but I was rather caught up in daily affairs, as happens so every now and then.

I've been reading carefully what you all said, and so far, I'm mostly confused. Sure, the phantom's idea sounds very sensible, but I don't know if we can trust people who are so willing to strike a deal with evil. Also Gil-Galad has said little, except concern for his bird. Odd, but not truly suspicious.

Wayne, I think, is just an inexperienced lad who does not really know what to say in the face of a tragedy.

A lot of names have been thrown around so far, especially names of the extremely loud and quiet ones.

Kitanna & Kath seem very sensible to me and I feel inclined to trust both. Which is just the reason why I think something's fishy about them.

Durelin's name has not been mentioned yet, but I'd say her death would at least clear up some confusion since I don't understand half what she says and what I do understand, I don't particularly like (though 'la' sounds rather nice ).

So far, I think my vote will go to Bergil. He has not been very helpful so far. But I do not distrust him, so it's really for lack of a true suspect...

[Kitanna]

Talk of lynching Bergil is utterly ridiculous. Lynching him for his silence at this point will most likely solve nothing. It's possible he's a wolf of course, but his silence at this point should not be a reason. Should Bergil say something in the next few and then fall silent once again then perhaps he should be lynched, but for now I don't think he should be killed.

I must step out for a bit and I have not decided how to throw my vote. Hopefully I will return in time to vote...

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Talk of lynching Bergil is utterly ridiculous. Lynching him for his silence at this point will most likely solve nothing. It's possible he's a wolf of course, but his silence at this point should not be a reason. Should Bergil say something in the next few and then fall silent once again then perhaps he should be lynched, but for now I don't think he should be killed.

I do believe you are right. But I also think the phantom's defence to be convincable enough to let him live for now.

I'm now torn between SamwiseGamgee for attacking the phantom's plan (though someone was bound to), or maybe Glirdan - since he was all over poor Wayne, who I think is an innocent. Also, he underestimates the power of the Cobbler... Kath also seems a little bit suspicious, though I can't quite explain why.

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Talk of lynching Bergil is utterly ridiculous. Lynching him for his silence at this point will most likely solve nothing. It's possible he's a wolf of course, but his silence at this point should not be a reason. Should Bergil say something in the next few and then fall silent once again then perhaps he should be lynched, but for now I don't think he should be killed.

I must step out for a bit and I have not decided how to throw my vote. Hopefully I will return in time to vote...

hmm...Kitanna could be right, but she could also be a werewolf trying to save Bergil that is another werewolf... very interesting... i'll have too go

++KITANNA

if you are innocent, my apologies, but i can't take that chance now

[Meneltarmacil]

Well, the reason I haven't said much to counter the accusations against me is because the only reasons given are the facts that I hang around animals a lot (true, but what good zookeeper doesn't?), order raw meat from Morm (My lions, tigers, etc. need it), and may have let a bear escape from my zoo (which I didn't do, I assure you those pens are secure and in no way has Bergil had any hand in building them). Such reasons are only due to my occupation and in no way are they related to what I have said so far.

Kath accused me shortly after Morm and SpM made their lighthearted accusations and Shelob seems to have joined in on it as well. I think at least one of these people may be a bandwagoning werebeast. And as stated above, Kath wants people to vote for the phantom as the Cobbler when he is taking a position completely contrary to what the Cobbler should be doing. Granted, it may be a double-bluff and he is clever enough to pull one off so the possibility is not out of my mind. But for now, my vote goes to

++Kath

[Holbytlass]

I stand by my decision earlier and I have some major scooping to do for the next three hours, so I vote now.


++BERGIL

As I don't find The Phantom suspicious at all or any of the others mentioned for being quiet as profoundly suspicious.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Originally Posted by mormegil

I find all this talk of the phantom to be a bit ridiculous. I cannot really believe him to be a werecreature or the cobbler. No I've spent some time with the fellow during my stay in this twisted little village and I have to say that no matter what he does he appears suspicious. So the fact that he appears 'normal' seems a good sign that he's innocent. So I'm pretty sure that he's not guilty. If anything the only thing I find cobblerish is that his normal behavior took up so much talk for one day. Now I would envision a cobbler phantom being a bit more subtle till near the end. I think his idea is somewhat sound and understandable. Basically he is asking the bear to benefit him/herself and the village as well. I don't think the cobbler would ask the bear to kill the werewolves (remember he would be on their team really). So let's stop diverting our attention from the real issue and get off this mentioning the phantom in nearly every post.

Is it just me, or does that seem a little werewolfish. It really does seem like he's accusing and yet defending at the same time. Very wolfish. And, as SpM said, the only real possibility for the phantom is werewolf. Are the two perhaps working in unison? I wonder.

Edit: Italics not working as anticipated

[SamwiseGamgee]

Quick double post, I know, but after some cross posting I went back and noticed that mormegil voted for Kath immediately after Menel, and with almost no reasoning. That looks rather wolfish to me.

[the phantom]

And, as SpM said, the only real possibility for the phantom is werewolf. Are the two perhaps working in unison? I wonder.

No.

If I was a wolf I would not have allowed my fellow wolf to defend me, and I imagine that if SP was a wolf he would refrain from defending a fellow wolf- particularly when the need is not desperate (I only have one vote, so it doesn't look like I need to be saved).

Now, how about some pre-night strategy?

Most people have accepted at this point that it is unlikely that I am guilty. This makes me a target tonight because wolves usually try to keep the most suspicious villagers around (in other words, they kill the ones most provably innocent).

Also, I'm a pretty smart guy, so that also would make the wolves want to kill me.

Third, it is possible that the seer will dream of me tonight or the next night. Though the seer likely believes I am innocent (as most people do), he/she will probably want to be sure because of my reputation for being a formidable foe. If the seer dreams of me, I will become a proven innocent- something that can really hurt the wolves.

The wolves know that if enough proven innocents are floating around, the village will win, because if the village absolutely has to it will institute a mass lynching enforced by the proven innocents.

Now, if I am found to be innocent but I am killed during the night, the seer's dream has been rendered useless. Therefore, the fact that the seer is likely to dream of me makes the wolves REALLY want me dead.

So, I would like to make a suggestion. Seer- go ahead and dream of me. If you are able to later move me to "proven innocent" status it will be helpful to the village.

Ranger- guard me tonight. The wolves want to kill me because I am smart and I might soon be a proven innocent, so it might be worth your effort to keep me safe tonight.

Just imagine- what if the wolves decide to kill me and are foiled?! No wolf kill! That would be excellent!

And I hear you saying, "Well, they won't try now that they think you're going to be guarded."

I'm not so sure. I think that they may very well out think themselves and think, "Since the Ranger thinks the wolves won't kill Phantom, he/she'll probably guard someone else, thus leaving Phantom open." And then they will try to kill me.

Werebear- tonight, kill whoever you think is a werewolf. If you're wrong (you probably will be) then you still win because you will kill a villager, so you have nothing to lose.

[Alcarillo]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

It's as good a vote as any this Day.

True, true.

Should I vote for Bergil or Wayne? Those are the two I think are best to be lynched. At least Wayne has said something. We have no idea about Bergil. I feel as though we should lynch the silent, if they won't help the village. So, here goes.

++Bergil