Werewolf VI (the saga continues in a rather continuous way) - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

mormegil · 07-12-2005, 10:17 AM

LMP my greatest complaint about your plan is it completely destroys the possibility of bagging a wolf tonight. I know all about the odds and we have a chance of killing our seer and ranger, however with such a small village we have a 25% chance of killing a wolf. Now I know that a bum might not understand this

but I think there is more to meets the eye under those tattered garments of yours. Take that how you will.

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 07-12-2005, 10:59 AM

I know two innocents. I'll share more information once I'm finished tuning my lute.

the guy who be short · 07-12-2005, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Morm

LMP my greatest complaint about your plan is it completely destroys the possibility of bagging a wolf tonight. I know all about the odds and we have a chance of killing our seer and ranger, however with such a small village we have a 25% chance of killing a wolf. Now I know that a bum might not understand this but I think there is more to meets the eye under those tattered garments of yours. Take that how you will.

False. Theoretically, if we picked somebody at random, we would have a 25% chance of killing a wolf. With lycanthropic influence factored in, the chance is realistically much lower. In any case, we have a Seer, a Ranger, a Hunter and two Shirriffs, all of whom are important to the village. That gives us a (theoretical, if done at random) 42% chance of killing a Gifted villager. With wolvish influence factored in, this is again higher.

On the other hand, we cannot gauge reaction and votes. I shall have to think about the plan.

I too think there is more to LMP than meets the eye.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Mer

I know two innocents. I'll share more information once I'm finished tuning my lute.

Pray do share, though I presume one is yourself.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Morm

Although I would like some explaining from you TGWBS. It's about a sinister possibility regarding your plan. I would have thought you could see the one major hold up in your plan better than anybody. That is of course the Ranger's inability to protect somebody consecutively. It seems to me the perfect ploy to have the seer identify themselves to the wolves and die on the second night thus minimizing the damage the seer can inflict to the wolves. Your main hope was that nobody remembered that and because it wasn't expressly spelled out you thought you could convince us otherwise.

1) It was a genuine mistake. I didn't notice.
2) If I was a wolf, and I knew that, the proposal would be suicide. I'm not that stupid.

I hope you are adequately answered.

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 07-12-2005, 11:16 AM

I'd share but I'd like to hear from the wolves first.

Plenty of time left. This is going along nicely so far.

Orominuialwen · 07-12-2005, 11:52 AM

Morm, the thing about doing a completely random approach is that you have as good a chance of lynching a complete innocent as a wolf, and an eve better chance of lynching someone you would really want to keep around. Unless you're a wolf and don't want them around. Hmmm...

mormegil · 07-12-2005, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

False. Theoretically, if we picked somebody at random, we would have a 25% chance of killing a wolf. With lycanthropic influence factored in, the chance is realistically much lower. In any case, we have a Seer, a Ranger, a Hunter and two Shirriffs, all of whom are important to the village. That gives us a (theoretical, if done at random) 42% chance of killing a Gifted villager. With wolvish influence factored in, this is again higher.

On the other hand, we cannot gauge reaction and votes. I shall have to think about the plan.

That's why I say do a completely random approach. While I consider the hunter and shirriffs to be important they are not nearly as important as the ranger who also is not as important as the seer. So I'm not for loosing any of them (any innocents for that matter) but it's not the end of the world.

Let's just think carefully:

We have:

12 villagers
3 wolves
1 seer
1 ranger
1 hunter
2 shirriffs
1 mythomaniac

That's 9 of 12 that can't step forward and die. One innocent is killed the first day we only have 2 left. Best case for the village during the night would be that they kill one of the other two. Next day the last remaining villager steps forward to be lyched we have nobody left except gifted villagers or wolves (assuming that the mytho becomes gifted) Now the wolves can one by one pick off the gifted. And what have we accomplished? Well hoping that the seer dreams correctly we can find a wolf or two by their dreams but chances are they won't dream of a wolf. Two days have been wasted that otherwise could have been used to analyze wolf behavior by having innocents step forward to be sacrificed.

the guy who be short · 07-12-2005, 11:41 AM

Quote:

That's why I say do a completely random approach.

But how do we know you can be trusted to choose somebody completely at random? A wolf could "randomly" choose an innocent. In any case, the chance of killing a Gifted Villie is double that of killing a wolf done randomly.

I would advocate the tried and tested method of evaluating people's moves, but I still need to devote some time to scrutinising LMP's plan. I guess the shortage of innocent villagers is a major shortcoming.

mormegil · 07-12-2005, 11:44 AM

TGWBS I am now either convinced that you are innocent or are in league with Oromin. I'm inclined to believe in you innocence.

Firefoot · 07-12-2005, 11:50 AM

Quote:

TGWBS I am now either convinced that you are innocent or are in league with Oromin. I'm inclined to believe in you innocence.

Huh? Morm, where do you get this? Oro has not posted, and TGWBS has not even mentioned her - and she is one of several people he has not mentioned.

07-12-2005, 10:17 AM	#1
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,651	LMP my greatest complaint about your plan is it completely destroys the possibility of bagging a wolf tonight. I know all about the odds and we have a chance of killing our seer and ranger, however with such a small village we have a 25% chance of killing a wolf. Now I know that a bum might not understand this but I think there is more to meets the eye under those tattered garments of yours. Take that how you will. __________________ “I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

07-12-2005, 10:59 AM	#2
Eomer of the Rohirrim Auspicious Wraith Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 4,859	I know two innocents. I'll share more information once I'm finished tuning my lute. __________________ Los Ingobernables de Harlond

07-12-2005, 11:16 AM	#4
Eomer of the Rohirrim Auspicious Wraith Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 4,859	I'd share but I'd like to hear from the wolves first. Plenty of time left. This is going along nicely so far. __________________ Los Ingobernables de Harlond

07-12-2005, 11:52 AM	#5
Orominuialwen Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: May 2003 Location: Umbar, but before the corsairs took over. (Ave Maria University, FL, USA) Posts: 632	Morm, the thing about doing a completely random approach is that you have as good a chance of lynching a complete innocent as a wolf, and an eve better chance of lynching someone you would really want to keep around. Unless you're a wolf and don't want them around. Hmmm... __________________ Gone for lentSeeyou at Easter! (And on Sundays too, maybe.)

07-12-2005, 11:44 AM	#8
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,651	TGWBS I am now either convinced that you are innocent or are in league with Oromin. I'm inclined to believe in you innocence. __________________ “I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”