Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[mormegil]

Interesting!

After my normal night of study, prayer and meditation I took a bit longer to meditate on our current plight and have done some research about the happenings yesterday that I would enjoy sharing. It's a bit long so for that I apologize but ask that you read in and glean knowledge from it.

Here is the list of who voted for whom. (In order)

Azaleia voted for the phantom
Kuruharan voted for The Saucepan Man
Mormegil voted for the phantom
The Saucepan Man voted for Son of Numenor
Shelob voted for The Saucepan Man
Oddwen voted for Holbytlass
Firefoot voted for Son of Numenor
The phantom voted for Son of Numenor
Holbytlass voted for Son of Numenor
Fordim voted for Son of Numenor
The Only Real Estel voted for Son of Numenor
Son of Numenor voted for the phantom

Totals:
Son of Numenor: 6
The phantom: 3
The Saucepan Man: 2
Holbytlass: 1


The Six who voted a known innocent:
The Saucepan Man
Firefoot
The phantom
Holbytlass
Fordim
The Only Real Estel

Reasons for voting for an innocent.

SpM:

post 147

And SoN's behaviour does seem the least explicable to me out of everyone. But I will stick to my beliefs. And to put an end to this silly suggestion that I am somehow in league with SoN

So essentially his behavior was odd and to make himself look innocent by killing somebody who was suggested was in league with him. Although I don’t find that suggestion being strong or rather well accepted. However to your credit SpM you at least stuck you your beliefs and didn’t lynch somebody because it was to save you, as other did.

Firefoot:


post 152

I don't agree with the basis for the accusations of SpM, and I'm not enough convinced of the guilt of phantom to be ready to vote for him. At this point I am not thinking either are werewolves. The other vote has been for SoN, and he is and has been at the top of my suspicion list for a while. So: ++SON OF NUMENOR. He has been acting far more wolfish than either phantom or Saucepan.

Weak evidence at best and truly echoes SpM even though she defends herself from this in the next paragraph. Yet she doesn’t vote for two people with suspicion cast on them and voted for an innocent because he hasn’t spoken much. It seems that there is a subtle defense of both SpM and the phantom here, yet enough distance to not look overly suspicious.

The Phantom:

post 153

Honestly, I'd normally vote to lynch Saucy first, but I'd feel rather bad doing that since he didn't vote for me when he had the chance. I'll give him a pass this time.

++SoN

WHAT!!! Did I read that correctly? Well I should vote for SpM but since he accuses me then doesn’t vote for me I’ll do the same for him. This coming from the man who repeatedly threatens that anyone who accuses him he will take down. The first 3 votes for Son of Numenor came from 3 people that are “suspicious” of each other and yet won’t vote for each other while naming them in their explanation. This is very, very suspicious to me and we may have a wolfish trio here. But the phantom reasoning is pathetic and laughable.

It just seems that they are teaming up yet trying to give a defense to themselves so when it was found out that SoN was innocent they could claim that they aren’t working together.

Moving on

Holbytlass

post 158

I was going to vote when there was a 3 way tie. Then Oddwen voted for me. Therefore I held off my vote in case I had to save myself.
I will vote for ++Son of Numenor for two reseans(sp?). Obviously now, even if Fordim and Estel vote for me I'm saved from the tied- double lynching. The other (and this is for when I originally was going to vote) I do think that Phantom and Saucepan Man are highly suspicios. Although at this point there smarts are needed. I am scared they are wolves using their wit against the rest of innocents.

So self-preservation was a factor. And thinking that we are keeping smart people because she's afraid that the werewolves are able to use their wit against us. It seems that if they are suspicious, which you admit, then maybe you ought to have looked a bit closer at them. My opinion of Holbytlass is that she is somewhat suspicious and could be the quiet wolf that attempts to fly under that radar while she supports the others who are more vocal. That support could be either voting with or not voting for her comrades. That said I feel she is the least suspicious on the list of six.

Fordim

Sorry but I feel I must quote almost his entire post—please read.
post 160

As to my vote, I am stuck. I would love to vote for Kuru on the thinking that he is either, a) a wolf or b) a villager who is helping the wolves inadvertently with his rather confusing and confounding posts. Unfortunately, a single for him at this point is unlikely to get him lynched – the only way that would happen would be if virtually every who is still to vote followed my lead. If he turned out to be an innocent, then this would make me look very very bad. As much as I would like to play this game selflessly, it is clear that I need to take more care for my own skin than that. So for the time, I think, Kuru is safe.

My next choice after Kuru is The Phantom for precisely the same reasons: he is either a wolf, or a villager who is helping the wolves hide with his own flurry of distracting speculations and self-congratulatory “conclusions” about people. The other thing that speaks greatly in favour of voting for TP is that it will break the current three-way tie between himself, Sauce and SoN – the last thing I want is a wholesale slaughter!

Hmmmmm…things are happening fast. Since I typed that last paragraph, The Phantom has gone on to vote for SoN, apparently to save his own neck. Seems fair to me…

The votes at this moment so far as I can tell are:

Phantom 2
Holbytlass 1
Sauce 2
SoN 3

So what do I do? I’m tempted to vote for the Phantom anyway and tie it up again, putting pressure on the remaining voters…

Boy, but the squeeze is being put on me!! If I vote for someone now and they end up getting lynched and they’re innocent, I’ll definitely be considered a wolf. If I tie it up, and there are wolves yet to vote, then they will be able to decide whom to lynch…the safest course for me, personally, is to cast a “meaningless” vote for Kuru who, like I said at the beginning of this bizarrely stream-of-consciousness post, is my first choice…

Just read Holbytlass’s latest post (158) and note that it is down to herself, me and Estel to decide this thing…and Saucy in 159 reminding me of SoN.

All right! That tears it…I need to vote for somebody and I don’t want the weight of being the last to vote. As it would appear as though SoN is the “leader” and as it would appear as though he is trying the rather wolfish strategy of waiting to the last minute to cast his vote (as I would appear to be doing as well, I realize) I am going to vote for

++ Son of Numenor

Even though I have no reason to think that he is a wolf. In fact, I tend to think that he is probably innocent, but this just seems a safer vote to me than one that might allow a late-voting wolf to make a tie and thus wipe out more than one villager. So I am deeply sorry Sono, but this seems to me the best course of action for the villagers…

That having been said, if SoN is innocent, I am going to go after SaucepanMan and The Phantom with everything I’ve got in the next day, since they have lead the charge against SoN today…

So let’s get this straight. You want to vote for Kuru but don’t because he probably won’t get lynched. So are you that bloodthirsty that you only vote those you think will be lynched? By your own admission you don’t vote for Kuru because it’s what is safest for you to do.

If I may rant for a moment. We need to stop that attitude and be a bit more selfless. If one is truly innocent than the goal should be to eliminate the wolves not save yourself.

So you suggest the phantom but end up not voting for him from what I inferred being a fear to cause a tie and letting other voters decide who to kill. Apparently you wanted your vote to really count.

Immediately after you vote for SoN you say

Quote ++ Son of Numenor

Even though I have no reason to think that he is a wolf. In fact, I tend to think that he is probably innocent, but this just seems a safer vote to me than one that might allow a late-voting wolf to make a tie and thus wipe out more than one villager. So I am deeply sorry Sono, but this seems to me the best course of action for the villagers…

However the one that could possibly be tied up at the end is the phantom who you yourself suspected and said that you didn’t suspect SoN. If it were me on the chopping block I would choose to have a tie and let the wolf come with me than me die alone. It seems like an exchange that I would be willing to take part in an innocent for a wolf.

If Firefoot’s not a wolf I’m suspecting that Fordim may be the third in the trio.


TORE:

post 163

Well, since SoN is clearly the one to be hung at this point & he is near the top of my suspect list I see no need to hold my vote longer.

I vote for ++ Son of Numenor

TORE seems to take sadistic pleasure out of being the last vote. Like Fordim he wants to make his vote count. As I don’t’ understand this philosophy of only voting those who are likely to die, there is great suspicion on you but not as much as the other four.

Now it’s entirely possible that not all three wolves voted for SoN but the only one I truly suspect out of the remaining would be Shelob who voted for SpM. Shelob could be guilty and SpM innocent or both could be guilty. Least likely both are innocent. The only other one with a possibility is Oddwen who voted for Holbytlass a seemingly random vote but unlike some of our others she wasn’t afraid to vote for somebody that may not be lynched.

Sorry this is so long and if I come across as expressing myself with vehemence it is only because I feel strongly that those who vote for an innocent who have less guilty evidence than others need to answer why. If this has earned me the odium of all, that is lamentable but I will not go lightly on those who act irresponsibly against somebody because they simply didn’t have a lot of time.