Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lommy

I don't know what to think of everybody collectively lifting Nog off the hook.

Not letting him off the hook, however the voting is already spread out...voting him may just be another throwaway. I might just vote Formy instead since he's my second candidate.

[Kath]

I'm not going to go on an all-out defence because I'm just a bog standard ordo, so at least if I get lynched then it's just a numbers loss to the village rather than anything else.

So my vote goes to:

++NILP

A self vote for Nilp is the best place to hide. He'd do it whatever so it tells us nothing about his role. Then toDay, he to me looks the most suspicious in bringing up potential Gifteds. BG - I know they said they weren't a newbie but to literally make a list saying who they think might be Gifted ... I mean it has to be rookie error or seriously bold wolf and I'm leaning toward the former. As I said, I feel better about Nog, and I think I'd need to go through Form's posts before making a judgement on him and there's no time.

Posting then I'll bold.

[Thinlómien]

Hey, whoever votes now and not later gets to steer the lynch!


edi: xed with everyone after Legate's last

[Rikae]

++Nogrod

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, heck.

++Nogrod

EDIT: x-ed with Kath, Lommy and Rikae

[Nogrod]

Okay then.

++ Formendacil

I'll make the vote before the frenzy.

[Nogrod]

Haha. X'd with two votes to myself.

[Pitchwife]

++Nog

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Why does it always come down to last minutes like this... no matter what one does.

[Boromir88]

A quick tally

Greenie > Kath
BG > Form
Form > Kath (2)
Mac > Nilp
Nilp > Mac
Lommy > Form (2)
Kath > Nilp (2)
Rikae > Nogrod
Legate > Nogrod (2)
Nogrod > Form (3)
Pitch > Nog (3)


5 to go.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm pretty sure Nog is being framed here, so....

++Kath

[Brinniel]

And suddenly now Nogrod actually is a feasible candidate.

So I'm going to put my money where my mouth is:

++Nogrod

X-ed with the last few posts

[Nogrod]

Just saying.

If I change Threads, please someone make others, especially those who voted for me, state what is the more believable reason to Lottie dying last Night.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I am really thinking that Form is more likely to be a Cobbler... but then again maybe he's the NW and we're having the "let's bus me" scenario here... and with that, BG being a packmate...

But I still think Nog is more suspicious without other factors.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate

Why does it always come down to last minutes like this... no matter what one does.

Such as, votes at .52 himself?

ToMorrow will CERTAINLY be interesting to analyse... not very happy about how this lynch turned around. Smells lycanthropic to me.

[satansaloser2005]

Why Kath and not Form? I currently fancy Form more of a cobbler, so I- oh, look at that, it doesn't matter anyway.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Such as, votes at .52 himself?

ToMorrow will CERTAINLY be interesting to analyse... not very happy about how this lynch turned around. Smells lycanthropic to me.

Well I was referring to myself.

But yeah it will certainly be interesting. Fingers crossed here whoever gets lynched.

[Nogrod]

Legate and Brinn - maybe Form as well, being the one saved this way?

Who knows.

See you on the other side.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

No time, sorry.

++Form

[Boromir88]

Deadline. Cease Posting.

A medium was chosen today. Once I see how that effects the vote and lynch, narration will be up.

Expect maybe within 15 mins this time. I've been adding to it again, but have some other things to make sure it's counted right.

[Boromir88]

Like the previous day, this day started uneventful as the village diplomatically discussed spreadsheets, notes and information sharing systems. Discussion on gifteds and cobblers swirled, but as the day grew older, the townspeople realized there were still 4 werewolves among them!

Tensions and suspense filled as they all stared at each other for several minutes. Even the dead were scratching their heads about what they were supposed to do with the whole town engaged in a staring contest. But suddenly they were kicked into action. Accusations with a little more teeth to them, and votes began flying around in the final moments.

"I predict chaos!" said Lommy

"Great we ended in a tie with Formendacil and Nogrod! How are we to decide?"

The village appeared to be at an impasse for the longest time because they couldn't lynch both of them. There was only one gallow!

Then suddenly one of them fainted for a moment. It was Brinniel! In a trance she uttered the words ++Nogrod. When she came-to she screamed Nogrod. Vote Nogrod. You fool! Make it Nogrod!

And that is how the village finally reached their decision. Nogrod went to the gallows today. Thus ended the 2nd day where an ordinary villager was lynched

The Dead

Boro (Town Recorder) - Night 1
Huinesoron (Villager) - Day 1
Loslote (Villager) - killed by pack Night 2
Nogrod (Villager) - Day 2 lynch

The Living

A Little Green
Blind Guardian
Brinniel
Formendacil
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Macalaure
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Thinlomien

----

It is Night 3. Silence in the village.

Werewolves discuss send me kill.

Seer dream.

Ranger protect.

BH set your trap.

[Boromir88]

It was a cold and brutal night. The townspeople were hoping to get through it with any sign of hope and good news. The first 2 days and nights did not go well at all for them.

In a secret corner of the town, the werewolves were on the verge of throwing a party. There was little they could complain about as everything seemed to be progressing as planned. But the pack also knew that one of their deaths, or a ranger save, or the seer outing them could turn the tide against them in an instant. Their victim was chosen and this night they were after a rare delicacy.

As dawn arrived and everyone in the village gathered in the center again, this time Blind Guardian was missing. When they plucked up the courage to visit her house they found her on her bed, motionless. Her eyes were gouged out and apparently eaten, or missing. Truly, she was blind now! Alas, this was depressing news to the townspeople, but there was still hope. For another ordinary villager, she was, which meant all the village's powerful protectors were still alive!

A voice from beyond has a laugh... "Woah this is eerily following the same path as a village from Lake-town 9 years ago. As assured then, it is assured now, there are werewolves, and cobbler, and seer, and ranger and beast hunter." *Voice dissipates into thin air.

(The content in the narrations contains no clues to any roles or what anyone's strategy is. They're for pure and innocent fun)


The Dead

Boro (Town Recorder) - Night 1
Huinesoron (Villager) - Day 1
Loslote (Villager) - killed by pack Night 2
Nogrod (Villager) - Day 2 lynch
Blind Guardian (Villager) - Killed by pack Night 3

The Living

A Little Green
Brinniel
Formendacil
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Macalaure
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Thinlomien

*With 4 villagers, 3 will have to vote for the same person to have a Medium today.*

----

Since it came up in the Dead thread as a discussion topic. It did not happen in yesterday's lynch, but the Medium's vote could lead to a tie and the question was raised how would this effect who is lynched? Who would have reached the most votes first, if the Medium tied the vote?

I've decided to go with since the dead players choose 1 player's vote to count as 2. Whoever is chosen as Medium, and whenever they vote it will automatically count as 2. So that would make the tally from yesterday:

Greenie > Kath
BG > Form
Form > Kath (2)
Mac > Nilp
Nilp > Mac
Lommy > Form (2)
Kath > Nilp (2)
Rikae > Nogrod
Legate > Nogrod (2)
Nogrod > Form (3)
Pitch > Nog (3)
Sally > Kath (3)
Brinn > Nogrod (5) - Medium +1
Shasta > Form (4)

[Macalaure]

I've been meaning to do this all Night, so just this one quick thing before I get dinner:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If I change Threads, please someone make others, especially those who voted for me, state what is the more believable reason to Lottie dying last Night.

I believe you owe the good man an answer, you bloodthirsty lot!

[Rikae]

I'm about to go have dinner, but I just wanted to say:

Hui and Loslote,

THAT WAS EPIC


Edit: crossed with Mac

[Formendacil]

Huh... Blind Guardian is a surprise.

Unless the Wolves though her "discuss the Gifteds" actions yesterDay were a sign of Giftedness, the only thing I see them gaining is a lack of a trail.

Which isn't to be discounted! Nor is that without value; indeed, it has great value. But as the only villager BG seems to have presented any real animosity toward, I feel a little set up. Mind you, as a second place finisher both Days so far, I'm an easy target.

More spreadsheets once I get back to my computer, because--spoiler alert!--I did not, as it happens, abandon it after Day 1. (We're in a summer doldrum/pandemic doldrum at work, it seems.)

[Brinniel]

First off:

Why am I so popular in the Dead Thread?! Good grief!

I'd feel better about it if I had actually been right about Nogrod. I had considered voting Formy, but he was looking more cobblerish to me.

And I'm also left wondering, why BG for a Night kill? She was looking more and more like a confused innocent as the Day progressed - but surely the wolves must've spotted something that made her look seerish.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by BG

Ohh shoot I forgot the seer was a role. BRB gonna read the sticky role post again.

Everything below this line was added in various edits:

I thought the roles were Wolves, Cobble, Ranger, BH, Villagers. My spreadsheet doesn't even have seer as role on it It has failed me...

Maybe they thought this was a slip. That she didn't include the seer on the spreadsheet because she was in fact the seer.

Originally Posted by BG

Will I dream Dave?

This was the title of post #253. I could see the wolves thinking it a seer hint. But it seems a little too obvious.

More from #253

Originally Posted by BG

Okay here's my spreadsheet so far

4 Wolves
Form, Nog, Legate, Nilp, Sally (post 14 & 220)

Form and Nog are underlined because I thought they were most likely to be Wolves. I also have Form on my Cobbler list because other people think that he's a Cobbler.

Up until Nog voted it was a tie between Nilp, Form, and hS. Nogwolf broke that tie and pushed the voting towards hS. At the same time he protected buddy Formwolf.

Legate is on the list because Lottie voted for him.

Sally is on that list for dumb dumb reasons (she referred to herself as "it").


1 Cobbler
Form, Pitch, Nilp
Pitch is my most likely Cobbler due to that fish boot comment. Although I did like his explanation I still felt that could have been a coverup.

Nilp could also be a Cobbler, but I don't feel comfortable voting for him due to his suicidal tendencies.


1 Seer
No comment yet...

1Ranger
Shasta was present on Day 1 but didn't really say that much. I felt like he was active but not saying anything to be suspicious.

1 Beast Hunter

Nog (post 10)

Okay bear with me. This might only make sense in my head. And yes, I know, flip-flopping.

Her analyzing gifteds was odd. Could the wolves have thought (or hoped) that she dreamt and outed a gifted Shasta? Her top candidate Formy is in both the cobbler and wolf categories which if she were a seer who dreamt of a wolf, you wouldn't expect her to do that. Though she did state that he was on the cobbler list because others put him there.

Okay, I see some where the wolves may have picked up that she could be the seer. The only player she seemed consistent about was Formy, so I would agree it doesn't look good for him.

Originally Posted by Formy

Which isn't to be discounted! Nor is that without value; indeed, it has great value. But as the only villager BG seems to have presented any real animosity toward, I feel a little set up. Mind you, as a second place finisher both Days so far, I'm an easy target.

And if you are a wolf, your packmates may have found you worth sacrificing for this reason (and especially if you are the NW).

[Formendacil]

I assume all the returning players went through this last game: does the fact that the Dead Thread chose Brinn as their medium suggest any endorsement of Brinn or is it strictly that the vote she was making is what they wanted to see voted?

Obviously, they KNOW as little as any of us (as evinced by their vote against what is now a Known Innocent), but is there any precedent for taking that as any sort of an endorsement? I'm acting on the assumption not, but that's a place where the "unspoken assumptions" would be valuable to know.

As promised, I looked my surprisingly-still-updated Excel file, but (guessing, as this is the first time I've used one) there is less value to it than in looking at Day 1, because Day 2 features a lot more lists and will naturally be heavily weighted, not just toward those who post the most, but toward those who are accumulating votes.

However...

That isn't to say there's nothing to observe. While it makes sense that, as the two most-voted-for candidates, Nog and I were tied in my unscientific reckoning with 57 mentioning/quoting posts each, the opposite end--with only 13 mentioning/quoting posts each--are Greenie and Lommy. For context, the next lowest is Sally, who is still making up a deficit of attention, at 18.

Now, that isn't to say that either of them are Wolves, but they are each 100% under-the-radar and, given our lack of success as a village catching any wolves, deserve some more scrutiny.

Not statistically-driven, I'm still suspicious of Pitchwife and Kath, and nothing that has happened overNight has shaken me--if anything, the fact that a BG Kill can be plausibly interpreted as an oblique means of pushing attention in my direction, I feel slightly more confirmed in suspicions. Although, push comes to shove, I think I am more concerned about Kath now, if I have to pick one of the two of them. Although Pitch has been more rambunctious (picking up a few "giving me Cobbler-vibes" around the village, and--more to the point--engaged me directly, whereas Kath didn't really engage. That could just be timezones--but she was around to vote after I did--and it could be Wolvish. It could also be both.

On the other hand...

Not counting the Medium-vote, Nog had four votes--and Pitch was one of them. Of Rikae, Legate, Brinn and himself, I find him the most suspicious, but I suspected him to begin with. Two Wolves in this batch would not surprise me; more than that would. If I had to pick a second Wolf from their number right now, I would incline toward Legate or Brinn. Rikae I trust, though for no reason I can pin down. Legate probably SHOULD get the greater scrutiny, given Nog's repeated unease with him, but Nog knew as little for certain as we do, so I don't rate Legate that much more suspicious than Brinn.

[Macalaure]

Not much to say about the night kill. "Will I dream Dave" plus leaving out the seer in her gifted discussion... Yeah, maybe it's a too obvious hint, as Brinn said, but it would be near negligent of the wolves to discount it for that.

Originally Posted by BG

4 Wolves
Form, Nog, Legate, Nilp, Sally (post 14 & 220)

Especially if there's a wolf, or maybe even two, in this list, I could see their alarm bells ringing. Naturally Form in particular looks bad. Then again, she underlined him just as she did with Nogrod, so that doesn't make sense. (edit: the underlining doesn't show in the quote, come on Downs!)


On to the votes:

Greenie -> Kath - no issues here
BG -> Form
Form -> Kath - if you were to interpret this vote very sinisterly, Form could see himself in danger of being lynched from afar and tries to back the first best choice to compete with him. The suspicion of Kath he voiced before sounds a bit generic.
Mac -> Nilp
Nilp -> Mac - not going to go into this one again...
Lommy -> Form - suspected him all along, but only because he feels wrong to her, so that's not much
Kath -> Nilp - Form's vote for Kath makes it fairly unlikely that they are wolves together, so that makes this vote look fairly good.
Rikae -> Nogrod - and here we go with the late-start Nogwaggon. Rikae hadn't posted in a while before voting, and their reasoning before focused on his implication of Lottie's death. I'm a bit at a loss here.
Legate -> Nogrod - x'ed with Rikae. Nog had been over him all day, so this vote seems understandable, if a bit knee-jerk. I don't think either Rikae or Legate expected their vote to take off like it did.
Nogrod -> Form
Pitch -> Nogrod - this is the interesting Nog vote, I think. Pitch only mentions him in an early-day list of suspects and other than that keeps his options very wide open. Also, in #316 he mentions all that had votes at the time except Kath. So this makes me think they may be wolves together. Then again, I don't actually think Kath is that suspicious, so these two pieces don't fit right now. Unless if Form is innocent, but that's too many ifs right here.
Sally -> Kath - trying to save Nog, which is fine... Sally: why Kath and not Form?
Brinn -> Nogrod - been after him all day, so due to consistency this vote is less suspicious than it would otherwise be
Shasta -> Form - even without the medium this vote would have been inconsequential, so there's not much to make of it. He did mention reasonable suspicion of Form before, for what it's worth.

There's a Pitch-Kath-Form thing to untangle here.


Also, I know this is Day1 talk, but it only just occurred to me. There's been talk about the NW sacrificing themself. Just acting suspicious and getting lynched, however, is awfully inefficient. They could fake-gifted reveal and have an innocent lynched or a real gifted flushed out and then go down in infamy the next Day. It might already be too late for that at this point though.


Lastly, while it's possible that Hui and Lottie made Brinn the medium for the entertainment value, but I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt (yes, I know, they're just ordos, too) and will give her a pass for toDay, not that I was really suspicious of her to begin with.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Why Kath and not Form? I currently fancy Form more of a cobbler, so I- oh, look at that, it doesn't matter anyway.

For Mac. Pretty simple, though I'm not sure I agree with my past self anymore.

[satansaloser2005]

Re: Brinn as the medium yesterDay, for those who are understandably confused

I can't say for sure, but I suspect this is a reference to the last game, in which Brinn was the recipient of the dead thread vote almost every Day. I don't know how much stock we should put in it unless it happens again. Then again, I'm still too busy laughing that it happened to consider if it means anything real.

[satansaloser2005]

It could be the hour, but Form seems to be equating silence with guilt (even while he says he isn't doing it), and I don't like it one bit. Do keep in mind that I was out for basically an entire Day, so my post count is naturally going to be stunted.

Anyway, to business.

Brinn's vote logic yesterDay looks very good to me. Granted, if it turns out Form is a wolf, I may have to rethink that (talking about voting him and then going back on it), but I understand where she's coming from; if your top candidate becomes a viable lynch target, you take the opportunity. All in all, I feel good about her.

I also think Pitch's exasperation at BG's gifted ponderings looks solid, and Kath doing the same makes me less suspicious of her by about a smidge. Then again, that could be the frustration of any experienced player regardless of role, so I'm trying not to jump to conclusions.

Lommy suspected me and therefore must be punished! Just kidding. I feel a bit better about her toDay, and though it's selfish, the way she explained her "suspicions" of me (rather, her lack of innocent feelings) strikes me as an innocent Lommy. My suspicion of Form coupled with her vote for him helps, of course.

As for the other Finn sister, I don't have a good read on Greenie at all. The same is true of Shasta, Nilp, and Rikae. I need to work on that.

Then there's the other side of my suspicion.

Form is my top suspect, unsurprisingly. If Form is a wolf, I may have to do some serious reconsidering on people, because yesterDay could have been an extremely smooth operation to save his hide, or Kath's for that matter. Form and Kath. Form and Kath are my top suspects. Let's be fair and not single anyone out.

I'd also consider a lynch of Legate or Mac. I can't find the post where I talked about Mac. I wonder if I ever submitted it?

To bed with me, I think. I may post a couple of other snippets here and there before I fall asleep, but I promise nothing.

[Brinniel]

I took a look through Legate's posts since I said I would. His posting seems less frequent than last game, but I like the content of his posts, probably because I agree with a lot of it. I don't really buy into Nogrod's theory that Lottie died because the wolves thought she dreamed of an evil Legate. Sure it's possible, but I still find it more likely that they thought her a seer that dreamed of Hui. Her suspicion of Legate came late in the Day, and I think a Legatewolf would more likely risk another Day than immediately kill her as a possible seer.

Pitch's vote was the most bandwaggony of the Nog votes and looking through his posts, I'm not clear on the reasons for his vote and why he suspected him. Mac did make a good point that it was interesting he didn't consider voting Kath considering she was one of his top suspects yesterDay.

I did mention before that Formy appeared to be more cobblerish...but based on last Night's kill, I wonder if he's in fact the NW.

Okay, I am falling asleep as I write this, so time for bed..

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm a bit surprised you guys went the Nog route - I would have expected something like Pitch, Kath, or Form, but Nog I thought was fairly solidly good. Hm. Makes me wonder how evil-driven that execution was.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm still in cobbler-Pitch land. I'm not sure what it's going to take to shake me from that, bar someone else dying as the cobbler.

Form - honestly, with as much suspicion as he's been getting, the fact that he hasn't been executed yet speaks to him being saved. The traction seems to be there, but it dies off at the last second. There's something to that, I think - I'll give it a look tomorrow.

[A Little Green]

I’m not sure what to make of how convinced Mac suddenly is that Form is a wolf – convinced enough to base the rest of his judgments on players on whether or not they could be fellows with Form. Is this just the BG kill, or am I missing something from earlier? My notes say he had Form down as “no read whatsoever” still yesterDay. Or is it like what Shasta said about Form being the runner-up both Days and surviving? (That's a fair point, incidentally.)

Originally Posted by Mac

Form -> Kath - if you were to interpret this vote very sinisterly, Form could see himself in danger of being lynched from afar and tries to back the first best choice to compete with him. The suspicion of Kath he voiced before sounds a bit generic.
…
Kath -> Nilp - Form's vote for Kath makes it fairly unlikely that they are wolves together, so that makes this vote look fairly good.

This doesn’t make any sense. Like, the argument against Form here is fair enough, and I agree it makes Form and Kath look like a fairly unlikely pairing, but how does that alone make Kath’s vote look good? Why is a scenario where Kath is a wolf and Form isn’t not an option? This then continues with -

Originally Posted by Mac

Pitch -> Nogrod - this is the interesting Nog vote, I think. Pitch only mentions him in an early-day list of suspects and other than that keeps his options very wide open. Also, in #316 he mentions all that had votes at the time except Kath. So this makes me think they may be wolves together. Then again, I don't actually think Kath is that suspicious, so these two pieces don't fit right now. Unless if Form is innocent, but that's too many ifs right here.

Again, I agree with the basic conclusion here – Pitch’s vote looks possibly the sketchiest of the Nog-lot, especially in connection with Kath. But again, Mac refutes this with how this would only fit if Form was innocent, but that’s too many ifs. Like, where did this come from? How is "if Form is innocent" more of a stretch than "if Form is a wolf"?

Originally Posted by Mac

Brinn -> Nogrod - been after him all day, so due to consistency this vote is less suspicious than it would otherwise be
…
Lastly, while it's possible that Hui and Lottie made Brinn the medium for the entertainment value, but I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt (yes, I know, they're just ordos, too) and will give her a pass for toDay, not that I was really suspicious of her to begin with.

Unrelated to Form, but I don’t agree with these conclusions about Brinn at all and in fact this makes me somewhat uneasy. First of all, I don’t think consistency equals innocence – a Brinnwolf would be just as likely to remain consistent with her earlier case against Nog as an innocent Brinn. It’s perfectly easy for a wolf to be consistent, so I don’t think Brinn’s consistence alone is a sign of anything. And second, if you don’t suspect Brinn, that’s absolutely fine, but I don’t get why the Medium thing is an argument for giving her a free pass. Even if the dead thread weren’t trolling (I love it if they were btw ), they don’t know anything more than we do. Last game, we had a dead wolf in there pretty early on, so there was a possibility the dead thread had some information we didn’t (ie. he might have let something slip). Here, unfortunately our dead thread consists of ordos, who know just as little as everyone here.

Originally Posted by Sally

Brinn's vote logic yesterDay looks very good to me. Granted, if it turns out Form is a wolf, I may have to rethink that (talking about voting him and then going back on it), but I understand where she's coming from; if your top candidate becomes a viable lynch target, you take the opportunity. All in all, I feel good about her.

In a similar vein, I agreed with a lot of things in Sally’s list but this bit not so much. I do agree an innocent Brinn could have done that, but a Brinnwolf who had suspected Nog previously could do it just as well – especially if Form is a wolf. And that’s curious as well actually – Sally and Mac both suspect Form, but where Mac interprets everything based on whether it tallies with Form being a wolf to the point it looks odd, Sally seems to do the opposite to the point it looks odd too. This makes me wonder about Sally – the bit about Brinn looking good but how she might have to reconsider if Form turns out a wolf as her vote could have been to save Form, doesn’t make sense if Form really is her top suspect like she says in that same post. Like, if she genuinely thinks Form is the likeliest wolf here, I’d think looking at his possible fellows would factor into her judgments more than as an aside.

Originally Posted by Sally

I also think Pitch's exasperation at BG's gifted ponderings looks solid, and Kath doing the same makes me less suspicious of her by about a smidge. Then again, that could be the frustration of any experienced player regardless of role, so I'm trying not to jump to conclusions.

I thought the same initially, but then, I agree that this kind of frustration can be genuine regardless of role. It would also be an easy way for a wolf to score a brownie point. So I don’t think we can read too much into it either way.

And back on the subject of the Nogwagon (that sounds like a food truck btw) - we shouldn't forget Legate, either.

Originally Posted by Legate

Whoa, this got really wide really fast.

I am also not entirely sure about where that Kathwagon came from. I mean, her vote was potentially incriminating (even though I would argue there are others in worse positions). And I am triple not sure what to make of BG's continuing vote for Form. It seems to me like BG is just sliding with the obvious.

Maybe I’m biased because I do think Kath is suspicious, but the bit about her here makes me uneasy. Kath had two votes by this point, so calling it a Kathwagon is stretching it - though would make sense if they were wolves together, either because votes for a fellow would look more threatening so he might think of it as a wagon already, or because he had an interest in presenting votes for Kath as sinister. And then there’s this –

Originally Posted by Legate

Why does it always come down to last minutes like this... no matter what one does.

This looks a lot like hand-washing. I can’t believe I’m spelling this out, but if you don’t like all the action happening literally in the last 10 minutes, how about – vote sooner? It’s not like some force of nature we’re helpless against, and painting it as such is an easy way to take less responsibility for one’s vote. As in, cross-posting with half the village so you can later claim you had no idea your vote was part of a bandwagon instead of an individual vote with no consequence. This isn’t just Legate, either – I’m a bit worried about the last-minute voting and how easy it is to hide there. With votes more spread out and less cross-posting, people are forced to be more accountable for their votes as they’ll know what’s going on when they’re voting and how their vote impacts the overall situation.

[A Little Green]

Quick list, then I need to get back to work -

Brinniel – I’m not sure what to make of her. Her D1 vote was a very safe one for BG, D2 she was the nail in Nog’s coffin, though with all that chaos yesterDay I can’t be sure she actually knew she was. I also don’t like how both Sally and Mac seem happy to give her a pass because she’s consistent.

Formendacil – Gives me a headache. I still think the Cobbler theory is a possibility, given his discussion of Gifteds and potential Cobbler-hinting early on D1. I haven’t seen anything particularly wolfy from him per se, but I agree with Shasta that there’s a possible pattern to him ending up as the runner-up but not lynched twice in a row now.

Kath – Possibly my best lead at the moment. Her D1 Huin vote is still pretty suspicious in how it was orchestrated, and a vote for Nilp D2 doesn’t make her look any better – it was the second vote for Nilp so can’t be called an outright throwaway, but also Nilp wasn’t a very likely lynchee so keeps her nose clean. I don’t like how careful she’s playing – I mean, she’s always careful to some degree, but this looks a bit too deliberate.

Legate – Another possible wolf, especially given the Lottie kill and the odd comments at the end of yesterDay. Not sure what to make of his interaction with Kath, though – his talk of a Kathwagon yesterDay looked sketchy, but there was a bit on D1 where he misremembered BG’s vote for Form as following Kath instead of Huin. This would be an unlikely mistake to make if they were fellows, as I’d expect him to naturally keep tabs on what his fellows do and who they vote for.

Macalaure – Another headache. I’ve agreed with him a lot over this game, but I’m not at all comfortable with his posting toDay and how he’s suddenly convinced Form is a wolf. I’ll reserve judgment until I hear back from him though as I think I might have misunderstood something.

Nilp – I feel like I’ve gotten a better read of him since he stopped trying to commit suicide, and I’m not too worried at the moment.

Pitchwife – Definitely want to take a look at him toDay. I don’t like how he was suspected on D1 (including by yours truly) and somehow managed to slip by fairly unnoticed yesterDay. His Nog vote isn’t doing him any favours either, especially if Kath is a wolf.

Rikae – Like Nilp, I feel somewhat better about her. I had a quick read through her posts after yesterDay as she was involved in both lynches, but her reasoning looks pretty genuine to me. Additionally, I somehow think a Rikaewolf would play either more careful (as in, steering away from being implicated in innocent lynches twice in a row) or more confrontational/manipulative.

Sally – I’m getting slightly uneasy about her. Her list post, especially regarding Form and Brinn, seems somewhat contrived - as in, the logic looks off from an innocent POV. Nothing more substantial yet, though.

Shasta – I like to think I’m okay at reading him, and still get more or less an innocent Shasta -vibe.

Lommy – Also starting to worry me. She’s somehow more slippery and careful than usual, and pretty much under everyone’s radar. Part of this might just be due to her being around less than usual, but I don’t think that’s all of it. Another one I’d love to read through toDay if I have time.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Checking in to say that I'm trying to walk off a terrible headache. I'll be back once the brief rest and NSAIDs kick in. Don't lynch me while I'm gone, please--do it when I'm around.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Quoting as I go...

Originally Posted by Brinniel

This was the title of post #253. I could see the wolves thinking it a seer hint. But it seems a little too obvious.

This definitely could be read as Seer-hint, but exactly, wouldn't that be too obvious for a real Seer? And BG was definitely far from uncontroversial. And I think about half the village suspected her to a degree, so unless they had really good reason, why kill her?

And if the Wolves thought her a Seer, her list of potential Wolves is far from clear. It includes Nog, who's a known innocent, and while Form is there in a nice position, he's also there as Cobbler.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Her analyzing gifteds was odd. Could the wolves have thought (or hoped) that she dreamt and outed a gifted Shasta?

This could make sense except it already operates with one "what-if" condition. It might really be that the Wolves just thought BG to be a Seer based on the "Will I dream, Dave" thing.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

I assume all the returning players went through this last game: does the fact that the Dead Thread chose Brinn as their medium suggest any endorsement of Brinn or is it strictly that the vote she was making is what they wanted to see voted?

Funny thing now that you mention the last game... I was wondering why the Dead chose Brinn and one rather simple, yet perfectly logical solution is that they are simply continuing the trend from previous game, where giving Brinn votes from beyond the grave was essentially the main pastime of the Dead. (And I guess maybe that's what Rikae is referring to when calling it "epic".)

Otherwise: there are almost too many questions in yesterDay's vote. Partly because of its spread. Okay, I see some of them started to be answered... of those that didn't, I also do not see where did Rikae's vote for Nog exactly come from. Care to elaborate? Rikae has become increasingly untransparent to me. Same goes for Pitch's vote, only he's been untransparent already before. Why Nog and not somebody else?

Another random observation when looking at the voting list: what's the Mac-Nilp thing? Looks like the two are having a private thing of their own going on there. I get the reasoning of Mac's vote, even though to be fair, if I go back to his reasoning before the actual vote, the original suspicion is rather random. Care to elaborate? Nilp's reasoning is interesting to say the least, but I don't see why would a Wolf cast a vote like that. Unless this is some Wolf-on-Wolf while the village is concentrated on something else.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Maybe I’m biased because I do think Kath is suspicious, but the bit about her here makes me uneasy. Kath had two votes by this point, so calling it a Kathwagon is stretching it

At that point, I was first concerned that you said you prioritised Kath over Nog, because Nog seemed to me as clearer option back then. That Form was the second on the wagon did not make it look better in my eyes, it felt like Wolves were pushing to save fellow Nog (obviously now we know otherwise. Since I still don't trust Form very much, it might be worth it to go back to that point and try to figure out what was happening. But you are right that it may be nothing since it, indeed, was no big wagon at that time. But at that point, it did not look like that - it could have been the start of a big wagon).

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Legate

And BG was definitely far from uncontroversial. And I think about half the village suspected her to a degree, so unless they had really good reason, why kill her?

I actually thought the opposite – BG did cause controversy but towards the end of the Day I remember the consensus seeming more like “she wouldn’t do this if she was a wolf”. That Legate remembers it so differently is very interesting, and I now feel like I should check back and see which one of us is right! Admittedly I’m not sure if that’s a very fruitful line of inquiry.

Originally Posted by Legate

At that point, I was first concerned that you said you prioritised Kath over Nog, because Nog seemed to me as clearer option back then. That Form was the second on the wagon did not make it look better in my eyes, it felt like Wolves were pushing to save fellow Nog (obviously now we know otherwise. Since I still don't trust Form very much, it might be worth it to go back to that point and try to figure out what was happening. But you are right that it may be nothing since it, indeed, was no big wagon at that time. But at that point, it did not look like that - it could have been the start of a big wagon).

This still doesn’t make sense. How could the two-vote Kathwagon be an attempt to save Nog when Nog didn’t have any votes at the time? Sure, Nog was under quite a bit of fire throughout the Day, but at that point there were already people saying he’s starting to look more like a frustrated innocent. As for why I picked Kath over Nog – I thought there was a good case against both of them, but there was also a decent argument for Nog’s innocence (ie. his confusion about wolf PM rules on D1), whereas I couldn’t think of as solid an argument for Kath’s. Now I wish I’d articulated this better yesterDay, though I’m not sure if it would have actually swayed any of the Nog voters.