WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Nerwen]

Look, there's one thing I think I had best get out of my system now: Kath, I know it probably just reflects your being short of time, but in this, as in some other games, I find myself getting quite irritated and frustrated by your habit of forming opinions from what appears to be a very quick skim of the thread.

Originally Posted by Kath

Nog - states no one tried to save sally and thought this was odd. Then responds to Agan's post about Legate possibly being a wolf who had to vote early. Says if Menel was the last wolf it would make sense that sally was left alone to die - I didn't follow this yesterDay. Can you explain further Nog? Says Shasta had both gone against sally and spoken of Legate as being suspicious - so perhaps not the third wolf.

Menel got confused about timezones the day Sally died, and didn't get back in time to vote. This is a key point.

Originally Posted by Kath

Shasta - despite being pretty determined about Legate, suggests Nerwen might be right about Kath and Menel being the last wolves. Would like to see his opinion on this toDay now we know Legate is a wolf. Arguing more against Menel being a wolf. Points out we have slightly been assuming Menel innocent based on the feeling Inzil might have dreamt him.

Technically correct, but still a subtle misrepresentation: Shasta actually argued strongly *against* "Kath + Menel", and *for* Legate, and merely added "I suppose you might be right, though"

Originally Posted by Kath

Menel - thinks Nog and Shasta aren't wolves as their votes put sally in the lead. Thinks Nerwen's late vote for sally could be wolf-on-wolf - fair enough, weren't many options by that point. Votes Legate following the general reasoning of yesterDay. All these possibility/elimination posts are a bit off. He did seem to discount everyone but Legate at one point, leaving no third wolf. Then almost re-did it and came up with Nerwen and Shasta as other options. I mean, I agree, I just think it was oddly done. Votes Legate.

Actually, by the end of yesterDay Menel had decided I must be innocent, and you and Shasta the only possible wolves.

Originally Posted by Kath

Nerwen - points out that sally nearly was saved and Nog nearly died instead. It was only the exact last minute votes of Shasta, Nog and Nerwen that stopped it and it seems they pretty much all cross posted. Was the rule that whoever hit the most votes first was lynched? Nog voting for sally to put them at a draw could have been an attempt to limit the damage from sally's POV the next day if both were wolves. Shasta and Nerwen's simply throwing a wolf under the bus because they believed the other innocent was going for sally. Asks if the last wolves are Kath and Menel, thus ignoring Legate. Can't believe this would be deliberate but might just not have thought about it. Takes back idea but thinks Menel could be the last wolf. A 'lupine counting slip' in 271 - well, potentially.

About your points against me here: um, well you know what? A number of them are factually incorrect, in ways I already pointed out yesterDay. If I sound annoyed here, I am.

Do I think Kath is a wolf? Well, probably not– the arguments against that have been put so many times I don't think it's worth stating them again. But even from an innocent, this kind of thing is a potential aid to the evil side.

All right, I just had to get that off my chest.

EDIT: typo.

[Meneltarmacil]

When I made that statement yesterday about Kath, I had failed to consider her actions on the previous Day. In failing to start a wolfwagon with Legate, she's basically proven her innocence.

And Nerwen when I sad "That would make you innocent and Shasta the wolf," I was referring to a theory that I was finding increasingly tenuous.

Although, come to think of it, there is only one person who has remained on my suspect list throughout the Nerwen-Kath uncertainty: Shasta. Interesting...

[Nerwen]

So, I've been making my own analysis of Legwolf, from the point of view of finding links to his fellow. I got as far as the end of Day One, and even that is, as Legate himself would say, "a novel". Here it is:


Legate, Day One

#10. IC banter. Will not be able to post much due to exams.


#22. Speculates about the Cobbler, in response to Zil (#16) and Kath (#19).


#23. More on the Cobbler, in response to Agan (#20). Responds to Pitch (#21), who considers that Kath’s (still cobbler-related) question (#19) suspicious.

Originally Posted by Legwolf

Hm, good spot. But then again, I think even innocents can speculate on theoretical basis - after all, what else is all this cobbler-pick debate about...

Makes a list, from which I extract his comments on the living:– not that I think there’s much to be gleaned there:

Originally Posted by Legwolf

Shasta - exactly one of the no show folks
Menel - nothing special this far, I have no intention to get rid of him for no special reason when playing with him after such a long time
Nerwen - again, nothing there
Nogrod - I fear of seeing him posting at 5 AM, when I am no longer here...
Kath - ha, actually, I think I am sort of forming an opinion about her - which is most unusual, because normally I have no clue about her whatsoever! She seems in any case very active and interested, in fact, she was one of the main talkers this far... there is an air of genuine interest and activity about her, I'd say.

#40. Makes a couple of what he describes as “really brief” remarks. The first is on the “she-cobbler” affair– he find neither Agan nor G55 suspicious. Second is a response (of some length, actually) to Lommy’s (#34) and Nog’s (#35) suspecion of Menel.

Originally Posted by Legwolf

More interestingly, what's up with Lommy and Nog suspecting Menel? I think he said what he said just as part of the early banter, where nobody said nothing, and so did he. Then he sort of said that we should turn to the vocal ones if we keep missing our targets (provided the village still exists at that point, I would need to calculate the numbers to figure out, there are not that many of us as Lommy had pointed out), which I think is not so groundbreaking new theory either, but in fact, it is rather sensible. So no problem with that - it even has some substance. I just wonder if this is the thing I remember from ages ago, when Menel was playing and very often he ended up victim of some random accusation. I'd be wary of that, especially on Day 1.

Note: What Lommy actually said was that she found Menel suspicious “for some reason”, but would reserve judgement on him; at #31 she thought G55’s case on him “flimsy”. So this seems quite an over-reaction on Legate’s part, as far as Lommy is concerned.


#72. At some length, defends Menel against G55 (#52) and Nogrod (#49, #50). Again interprets (or re-interprets) several of Menel’s “Captain Obvious” statements, explaining what he thinks Menel *really meant*. Sample:

Originally Posted by Legwolf of Amon Lanc

I think he was saying a sensible thing, I mean, if we dissect everything, then everything is already a known fact, one way or another. Nothing new under the sun. Yet saying "if we keep mislynching due to certain people leading the discussion, we should turn our eyes on them" is a reasonable thing to say, so why shouldn't he say it.

Meanwhile, Nog is “standing out”, his reaction to Pitch’s vote for him being “somewhat too jumpy”


#81. Considers whom to vote. Dismisses Nog as his later posts are “very moderate”. (Can only refer to #74, where Nog partly backs off Menel, and subsequent posts where he goes after G55 and Pitch instead). Pitch and Agan are somewhat suspect for “cobbler-talk” and Lommy for “Menel-waggoning” and “harshness”. But G55 is the “best pick”.


#84. Votes G55.


#86. Mildly disputes Nogrod’s point (#85) that G55 tends to be an easy target.


And… that’s pretty much Legate’s entire contibution to Day One: Counsel for The Defence in the Case of The Village vs Meneltelmacil. He is not the only one to take Menel’s side, of course, or to express suspicion of his attackers– cf. Zil, for example– but he devotes by far the greatest amount of time and energy to it. He brings out every point in Menel's favour, he expresses concern about Menel's (but not G55's) track record of being an easy lynch, he turns suspicion back on his attackers– he even, repeatedly, puts words in Menel’s mouth in order to make his statements look better! (I think he did that later on in the game as well.)

So, what is going on here? At face value, this looks quite damning for Menel– and, which I suppose is a paradox, it's about the only thing that's stopping me voting him right now. If they’re wolves together, this is stunningly unsubtle playing on Legwolf’s part- and he's about the last person of whom you'd expect such a thing. But then, what else could it be? Wolf-fawning-on-innocent? Using one as a cover for something else? Or is it just a double-bluff?

EDIT:X'd with the man himself. EDIT2: typo

[Meneltarmacil]

Excuse me, but Legate was openly defending somebody who is already attracting suspicion, right when most people consider him a wolf and are about to lynch him. In other words, he knew people would regard his words as wolfish lies and sought to make the village lynch me after his death.

At least, that's how I would regard him.

[Meneltarmacil]

Oh, you were speaking of Day One, not yesterday. I suppose I'm going to be lynched for that.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

When I made that statement yesterday about Kath, I had failed to consider her actions on the previous Day. In failing to start a wolfwagon with Legate, she's basically proven her innocence.

And yet, you had all yesterDay to reach that conclusion, and were certainly perfectly aware of how and when she'd voted, because you mentioned it yourself...

And Nerwen when I sad "That would make you innocent and Shasta the wolf," I was referring to a theory that I was finding increasingly tenuous.

???And how does that logically justify your re-instating me as "top suspect"?

Although, come to think of it, there is only one person who has remained on my suspect list throughout the Nerwen-Kath uncertainty: Shasta. Interesting...

Very interesting...

EDIT:X'd since my last post.

[Meneltarmacil]

Nerwen, considering there is really nothing more I can do that will convince you I'm not a werewolf, all I can really say is this.

I am innocent. If you lynch me and find that out the hard way, your crusade against me today will probably put you in the noose tomorrow.

Also, I notice it has been largely Nerwen making the attacks against me while Shasta hides out in her shadow and supports her from time to time. If there is a Menel-lynch today, Nerwen becomes top suspect tomorrow, and Shasta, due to more limited anti-Menel participation, will be left behind to lick his wolfish chops as the village continues toward its doom.

Just a thought.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Nerwen, considering there is really nothing more I can do that will convince you I'm not a werewolf, all I can really say is this.

I am innocent. If you lynch me and find that out the hard way, your crusade against me today will probably put you in the noose tomorrow.

Also, I notice it has been largely Nerwen making the attacks against me while Shasta hides out in her shadow and supports her from time to time. If there is a Menel-lynch today, Nerwen becomes top suspect tomorrow, and Shasta, due to more limited anti-Menel participation, will be left behind to lick his wolfish chops as the village continues toward its doom.

Just a thought.

*sigh* I don't *want* to lynch you if you're innocent, Menel. Did you not see my reservations after the Legalysis? On the other hand, I don't see how responding to your extremely ill-reasoned and seemingly opportunistic "case" on me constitutes a "crusade", nor why it would necessarily put me in the noose tomorrow, should you turn out innocent. (In case you hadn't noticed, Nogrod had all but decided to lynch you toDay, before I ever posted.) Also, how is it that you're suddenly convinced of my innocence?

Look, can you actually make a case against anyone else, Menel? A real one, I mean?

[Meneltarmacil]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

*sigh* I don't *want* to lynch you if you're innocent, Menel. Did you not see my reservations after the Legalysis? On the other hand, I don't see how responding to your extremely ill-reasoned and seemingly opportunistic "case" on me constitutes a "crusade", nor why it would necessarily put me in the noose tomorrow, should you turn out innocent. (In case you hadn't noticed, Nogrod had all but decided to lynch you toDay, before I ever posted.) Also, how is it that you're suddenly convinced of my innocence?

Look, can you actually make a case against anyone else, Menel? A real one, I mean?

Constantly prodding me about a couple statements I made (the first of which was more of a "if my previous, ill-played theory was true") is more than just responding. I don't remember any one person grilling G55 so much about her "galwolf" comment, for instance.

And in any case, it's not just you I'm suspicious of. As I've mentioned all Day, both you and Shasta are under suspicion, and I'm beginning to think Shasta might get my vote today considering what I've said above. As for Nogrod, Shastawolf wouldn't really care whether you or Nogrod gets lynched tomorrow as long as it isn't him, which leads me to think he's going to kill Kath tonight.

[Meneltarmacil]

As for why I'm "suddenly convinced of your innocence" as you put it, I'm not. It just occurred to me that a wolf wouldn't attack an innocent this much if there was a good chance that innocent would get lynched. That would put the wolf under a lot of uncomfortable scrutiny the next Day.

Somebody who's quietly but consistently supporting an misguided innocent, though? That's another story.

[Meneltarmacil]

I think I've said my piece for now. I'm going to vote for

++Shastanis Althreduin

even though it probably won't do any good because I'll be lynched anyway.

When tomorrow comes and there are only three left, remember everything I have said here. Shasta will probably leave one of my outspoken critics alive and try to convince whoever he didn't eat to lynch the critic for lynching me. Don't believe him. Hang his furry hide out to dry.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Constantly prodding me about a couple statements I made (the first of which was more of a "if my previous, ill-played theory was true") is more than just responding. I don't remember any one person grilling G55 so much about her "galwolf" comment, for instance.

And in any case, it's not just you I'm suspicious of. As I've mentioned all Day, both you and Shasta are under suspicion, and I'm beginning to think Shasta might get my vote today considering what I've said above. As for Nogrod, Shastawolf wouldn't really care whether you or Nogrod gets lynched tomorrow as long as it isn't him, which leads me to think he's going to kill Kath tonight.

I am "prodding" you for a satisfactory answer to the points I've raised. That is all, Menel! Do you think I'd treat anyone else differently?

For the record, I have given scenarios already whereby the wolf could, theoretically, be any of the other players. None of them are at all likely, but then, if it's not you, we must, by definition, be dealing with a skilled and experienced villain who has covered his or her tracks very carefully– and are thus in for a particularly tricky endgame.

Very well, then: why has Shasta now replaced me at the top of your list? This is an honest question. To put it bluntly, Menel, you've whirled from suspicion to suspicion so often, and given so many often contradictory reasons for them, that you're starting to make me postively dizzy!

EDIT:X'd with 2 Menels.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Menel

Nerwen, considering there is really nothing more I can do that will convince you I'm not a werewolf, all I can really say is this.

Actually, there's plenty you could do. You just haven't been doing it.

[Nerwen]

Nog, Kath, Shasta–

I've barely played with Menel before. How likely is it that he would do all this as an innocent? I know he has a reputation for attracting suspicion, but that's about all I do know.

[Meneltarmacil]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Very well, then: why has Shasta now replaced me at the top of your list? This is an honest question. To put it bluntly, Menel, you've whirled from suspicion to suspicion so often, and given so many often contradictory reasons for them, that you're starting to make me postively dizzy!

EDIT:X'd with 2 Menels.

Because I don't think a wolf would be this fixated on bringing me down. That would attract unwanted attantion the next Day.

Shasta has been more careful and more quiet in his suspicion of me. Staying low and providing support to the loud, misguided innocents sends up red flags where I'm concerned. He could avoid a lynch more easily by claiming he wasn't the one to blame.

And with that, I think I'll be on my way. On a last note, I'm sorry if anyone has taken my defensiveness personally.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm here, and appear to be the most convenient person for Menel to suspect, since Nerwen actually fought back. I'm going to need a few minutes to get through all this.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Kath

Shasta - despite being pretty determined about Legate, suggests Nerwen might be right about Kath and Menel being the last wolves. Would like to see his opinion on this toDay now we know Legate is a wolf. Arguing more against Menel being a wolf. Points out we have slightly been assuming Menel innocent based on the feeling Inzil might have dreamt him.

Nerwen has pretty much answered this for me, but yeah, I was pretty clear yesterday that I thought Legate a wolf, ergo the last two wolves couldn't be you and Menel.

Also, it's a little odd to me that your two candidates for wolvery are Nerwen and Menel... and then you vote Nerwen largely because she was suspicious of Menel.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Kath - probably isn't a wolf. For mainly two reasons.

First she didn't follow Legate's vote on me on D3 when she had a chance - and the wolves were so close to winning the game at that point that she should have tried it were she a wolf. Now I think it was Shasta who asked whether she had suspected me earlier aka. would that have been a too hard a turnaround from her to suddenly vote me. But I think there were enough reasons to vote me on D3 as I had been one of the leading forces lynching two innocents in a row: so I don't think it would have been too risky for her to say "Yeah, Nog looks so bad now that I'm going with him as I'm short on time"...

Secondly she voted Legate quite early (again) yesterDay, but there was already a vote on Legate by Agan and at least I had voiced suspicion on him. So if she is a wolf, she would have wilfully aided with the downfall of her only mate - and on that Day she had actually made a more or less full analysis of us people left in the game, so she could have picked any other line of reasoning if she needed to help her comrade and willing not to be left alone...

To me, these both seem like you're saying the same thing - "Kath isn't a wolf because I don't think she'd wolf-on-wolf as much as Kathwolf would have had to have done in this situation."

Why?

Originally Posted by Nog

So was that it?

Well, to be straight I can understand it coming 10+ minutes from the DL, but anyway... you sound pretty jumpy if that was what alerted and confused you for real. At least I took it as a normal Sally-talk and more like a sign of guilt than an innocent role (wouldn't she have cried a lot louder if she was the ranger?)

Yes, that was it, and one of the reasons I eventually decided on her over Agan. And you're one to talk about me "wawering" (is that how they spell it in Finland? We spell it "waver" here.) when you said this:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Well Shasta, you have just made wawer a bit... as I just remembered that one of the things that made me suspect Sally the most was on D2 when she appeared to say she wishes to see G55 to simmer but not be lynched when she had just made her "wolf-slip" and when people acknowledged it she turned on her heels pretty fast.

Now wolves often are opportunists as well, but some of the weight of that suspicion clearly lightens when G55 turned out ordo...

I've decided not to quote Menel's every post, since Nerwen has already done most of that. I'll just talk about the ones that catch my eye. Like this one -

Originally Posted by Menel

Kath, I agree, probably isn't a wolf because of her helping to lynch both Sally and Legate.

That leaves Nerwen, Shasta, and yours truly.

I am not a wolf.

Nerwen and Shasta both voted for Legate and Sally, but only when both were beyond salvation.

I'll grant you Sally wasn't a lock until the end of the day, when Nog and I crossvoted (which you yourself have mentioned before.) However, since that is what killed off Sallywolf, I'm afraid I don't see why that's suspicious.

As for Legate - realistically, with all the suspicion on him, and given that the vote on him was entirely unanimous, he was pretty clearly "beyond salvation" from the get-go. So by that standard, Kath's vote doesn't look that much better than anyone's.

Therefore, you're using the same reason to clear Kath as you are to paint Nerwen and myself as suspicious, and you're not allowed to do that.

Originally Posted by Menel

That said, I am also considering Shasta as the last wolf, especially for the way he jumped on "Galwolf" in the G55 bandwagon after the latter's "frustrated innocent" post started to sway some people.

I'd been suspicious of G55 long before that. Granted, I was starting to think her more innocent because of how she was acting prior to the "slip", but I'd never been completely trusting of her.

Originally Posted by Menel

In failing to start a wolfwagon with Legate, she's basically proven her innocence.

This is a point I've seen quite a bit, from both Nog and Nerwen as well. I personally don't buy it as an ironclad proof of her innocence. Wolves can have RL time constraints just as much as anyone else can, and I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that a Kathwolf decided not to follow Legate's vote because of how they'd be linked later. It's not as if a lynch on anyone could have been assured as early in the day as they voted.

Originally Posted by Menel

Also, I notice it has been largely Nerwen making the attacks against me while Shasta hides out in her shadow and supports her from time to time. If there is a Menel-lynch today, Nerwen becomes top suspect tomorrow, and Shasta, due to more limited anti-Menel participation, will be left behind to lick his wolfish chops as the village continues toward its doom.

You notice that because I haven't been here today, and my pearl has been. I'm more than happy to attack you now that I'm here, though, since I'm becoming more and more certain you're a wolf with no way out.

Also, scrolling back up a second -

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So, what is going on here? At face value, this looks quite damning for Menel– and, which I suppose is a paradox, it's about the only thing that's stopping me voting him right now. If they’re wolves together, this is stunningly unsubtle playing on Legwolf’s part- and he's about the last person of whom you'd expect such a thing. But then, what else could it be? Wolf-fawning-on-innocent? Using one as a cover for something else? Or is it just a double-bluff?

Given that Menel hasn't played in three years, I don't think it's too unsubtle for a Legwolf to try avoid a Menelwolf lynch on the first day. That's assuming Legate cares about his pack, though.

Originally Posted by Menel

And in any case, it's not just you I'm suspicious of. As I've mentioned all Day, both you and Shasta are under suspicion, and I'm beginning to think Shasta might get my vote today considering what I've said above.

So, you're suspicious of me based entirely on the fact that Nerwen has been around more? Okay. It looks to me more like you've decided I'm a better alternate lynch, since my darling one has been around defending herself from your attacks.

Originally Posted by Menel

It just occurred to me that a wolf wouldn't attack an innocent this much if there was a good chance that innocent would get lynched. That would put the wolf under a lot of uncomfortable scrutiny the next Day.

It's incredibly hard to determine what a wolf would and would not do and be entirely certain of the answer. It's definitely not a good idea to be so iron-clad specific.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I've barely played with Menel before. How likely is it that he would do all this as an innocent? I know he has a reputation for attracting suspicion, but that's about all I do know.

I've probably played less with him than you have, and remember less. I remember Nog mentioning something earlier about Menel having a reputation for attracting suspicion, but that's about it.

Originally Posted by Menel

Shasta has been more careful and more quiet in his suspicion of me.

I'll say this once more - there's a difference between being "careful and quiet" and simply not being here. You'll notice that I'm almost never here except during the latter half of the day - that's because I'm in a different timezone than most of the rest of you (definitely on the part of Nog, Nerwen, and [b]Kath[/b) - I generally don't even get here until the rest of them have gone to bed.


I think that's most of everything thus far.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shasta

This is a point I've seen quite a bit, from both Nog and Nerwen as well. I personally don't buy it as an ironclad proof of her innocence. Wolves can have RL time constraints just as much as anyone else can, and I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that a Kathwolf decided not to follow Legate's vote because of how they'd be linked later.

*coughing fit* Actually, my little turtledove, I believe I made that point myself already.

I'll say this once more - there's a difference between being "careful and quiet" and simply not being here. You'll notice that I'm almost never here except during the latter half of the day - that's because I'm in a different timezone than most of the rest of you (definitely on the part of Nog, Nerwen, and [b]Kath[/b) - I generally don't even get here until the rest of them have gone to bed.

Well, I suppose he's talking about yesterDay, not toDay. Even so, this–

Somebody who's quietly but consistently supporting an misguided innocent, though? That's another story.

Originally Posted by Menel

Shasta has been more careful and more quiet in his suspicion of me. Staying low and providing support to the loud, misguided innocents sends up red flags where I'm concerned. He could avoid a lynch more easily by claiming he wasn't the one to blame.

–while a good tactic in principle, doesn't seem to describe your actions yesterDay particularly well, either.

EDIT:added quote.

[Nerwen]

Oh! And it also doesn't fit at all well with Menel's previously displayed level of tactical knowledge, does it?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Also, it's a little odd to me that your two candidates for wolvery are Nerwen and Menel... and then you vote Nerwen largely because she was suspicious of Menel.

It's more than that– what she says in her vote-post is this:

Originally Posted by Kath

There felt to have been a bit of a forced push for a Menel-wagon, largely led by Nerwen and Shasta. I had seen more to worry me in Nerwen thus the vote.

Which, to the best of my knowledge, bears absolutely no relation to what happened yesterDay. Well– that's Kath, though. When she's in a hurry, she'll quote and make analyses and all that, but quite frequently they seem to emanate from a slightly different plane of reality. I think she either skims, or just picks a random sample of posts to look at, or something. (Yes, I am still annoyed, Kath. Can't you tell?)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

*coughing fit* Actually, my little turtledove, I believe I made that point myself already.

Fair enough, sun in splendour.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Oh! And it also doesn't fit at all well with Menel's previously displayed level of tactical knowledge, does it?

You mean his tenuous grasp of wolf-on-wolf voting? Or something else?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

In any case, I work fairly early, so should probably be heading to bed soon. I'm feeling fairly good about Nog and Nerwen (as in, both Kath and Menel have raised more red flags recently than those two have) and so;

++Menel

Good night.

[Nogrod]

I only had time to skim through the posting since I left and will not probably have a second chance before the DL, so here it goes...

++ Meneltarmacil

Between the different scenarios it looks like the most promising one.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shasta

You mean his tenuous grasp of wolf-on-wolf voting? Or something else?

That, and the general "Captain Obvious" statements.

Anyway. I have been looking through the other Days, and haven't seen any pressing reason *not* to lynch Menel now. Obviously, if he turns out innocent, I'll need to take a closer look toMorrow (assuming I'm still alive).

++Menel

There. Now you're dead. And if you're innocent after all– well, I'm sorry, but what can I say? You pretty much went and stuck your head in the noose toDay and yesterDay– I don't know how else to put it.

Note: As I go to post this, I see Nog just voted.

[Kitanna]

Menel had been considered innocent for too long. His luck had run out.

“Let's string him up by the river! Let the wolves see what we do to those who help them!” Shasta said.

“It's too cold,” Nerwen argued. “Let's throw him in an oven. The wolves can have a hot meal before we drive them back over the Brandywine.”

“What do you think Kath?” Nogrod turned to the woodsmith.

She held a bloody fork. Menel was at her feet writhing in pain. Her neighbors exchanged confused and worried expressions. “He made fun of my gammy leg,” was the answer Kath offered up.

“We may as well finish the job then."

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer
G55 – Committed suicide on Day 2, Ordo
Lommy - Kabobbed on Night 3, Ordo
Glirdan – Spontaneously combusted on Night 3, Cobbler
Sally – Poisoned on Day 3, Wolf
Legate – Devoured by wolves on Day 4, Wolf
Aganzir – Walked out to meet her fate on Night 5, Ranger
Menel – Forked over on Day 5, Ordo

The Living
Shasta
Nerwen
Nogrod
Kath

[Kitanna]

The retired barkeep woke from a chill. How had his home suddenly became so drafty? He pulled his robe on and padded out of the bedroom.

The door was open. So this was how it was going to be. “Show yourself! I've survived worse than you.” He snarled into the darkness. He closed the door. It provided him some sense of security, though he guessed his attacker was in the house already.

From the shadows stepped the final villagers to sign a pact with the wolves. “I should have known it'd be you. You'll not have me and I'll see to it you're strung up tomorrow.” Nogrod knew better. His spoken as though he'd actually see tomorrow.

With his attention focused to the front Nogrod missed the silent footfalls of padded and furred feet coming from behind. The alpha and his mate attacked from behind before Nogrod had the chance to respond.

He poked an eye here and kicked a ribcage there. Even in retirement he was a formidable Hobbit. He refused to go down without a fight. “Give it,” the fiend said. “You're embarrassing yourself.”

Nogrod had managed to punch the alpha in the face, distracting him, but the female had latched onto his leg. Blood coated her jaws. Even if he broke free he'd not make it very far with his injuries. Still, he wouldn't give in. He pulled his arm back to slap her muzzle. Her mate grabbed hold and gave him a shake before clamping down on his jugular.

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer
G55 – Committed suicide on Day 2, Ordo
Lommy - Kabobbed on Night 3, Ordo
Glirdan – Spontaneously combusted on Night 3, Cobbler
Sally – Poisoned on Day 3, Wolf
Legate – Devoured by wolves on Day 4, Wolf
Aganzir – Walked out to meet her fate on Night 5, Ranger
Menel – Forked over on Day 5, Ordo
Nogrod – Distracted and mauled on Night 6, Ordo

The Living
Shasta
Nerwen
Kath

Day 6 Begins

[Nerwen]

Well, that's something I got right: I knew Kath would be alive regardless. Is it her, then, or has my jewel let her live, in hopes of profiting by her early voting + suspicion of me?

I'll have to think.

[Nerwen]

Back again.

I'd say it points more to Shasta, insofar as leaving Kath and me alive would definitely be a good move for a Shastawolf, whereas I'm not sure a Kathwolf would have wanted to eat Nogrod last Night. Or at least, she'd be in quite a dilemma, wouldn't she? He'd be unlikely to attract votes toDay– but also unlikely to vote *her*.

I'll not be voting yet of course.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Nog, hmm? A fairly logical choice, I suppose, considering the Legate/Sally combo of votes from a few days ago.

I suppose the question now is, who profits more from a Nog-death? Given the conversation and agreement about how Kath wasn't as clear as people thought she was, a Nerwolf would make sense.

On the other hand, it is the last day. Killing Nog would be a relatively bold ploy, to be sure, but if it is Kathwolf then it's working beautifully thus far, given what my heart has posted already. I just need to decide which is more likely.

[Kath]

Dilemma. Do I vote Nerwen because she was so rude yesterDay and decide in response that I won't actually bother even trying? Or do I put the limited amount of time I have into attempting to find a wolf? Really, really tempted to go with the former after reading the thread since I left. Right now wouldn't actually care if meant the villagers lost.

Therefore I'm taking an hour away.

[Kath]

Menel - three posts:
1) As for me, my major suspects at the moment are Nerwen, Legate, and Kath.

2) I'm going to have to reevaluate my suspicion of Nerwen now that I see that all but the first vote for Sally were cross-posted. Occurring within one minute of each other, in fact, which makes it highly improbable that she was lying about it being a cross-post.

Nerwen, in all honesty, should be considered innocent for the same reason that Nogrod and Shasta are.

Which leaves us with Legate and Kath. Although I think only one of them's a wolf, or Kath probably wouldn't have voted for Legate so early today.

3) If you're claiming that I am the third wolf, why did I just vote for Legate?

Unless Kath and I are wolves together, and Legate's innocent. But if you think Legate really is innocent, why haven't his other attackers merited your suspicions?

As for the remaining wolf, assuming Legate is guilty, this was my logic:
Not Aganzir, she's the Ranger.
Not Kath or me, they voted for Legate.
Not Nogrod, Shasta, or Nerwen, as they got Sally lynched.

Obviously that would eliminate everybody, and so one of the following has to have happened:

A: Agan is lying about being the Ranger.
B: Kath or I decided to kill a fellow wolf for some reason.
C: Nogrod, Shasta, or Nerwen played wolf-on-wolf yesterday.

Since no Ranger came forward to dispute Agan's claim, we can eliminate A.

With one wolf down already, B would put the wolves in unnecessary danger. I would be inclined to point the finger at Kath if Agan and I have made a mistake and Legate turns out to be innocent, though.

C now looks like the most likely possibility. Sally would not have been lynched with only two votes, and the result of such a vote by a wolf (should Sally be lynched at some point) would lead to the wolf being trusted by the villagers. Unfortunately, the wolf cross-posted with a couple of innocents and lynched a packmate by mistake.

As for which of Nogrod, Shasta, and Nerwen is likely to be a wolf, I would not suspect Nogrod as Legate voted for him when he knew there were other strong anti-Nogrod sentiments.

So our wolf is probably Shasta or Nerwen.

Tell me again how I misinterpreted that to end up with Menel first seeming to end up without any third wolf and then ended up with suspicion of Shasta and Nerwen.

Later he says:
My apologies. I honestly cannot remember a wolf ever doing this.

Although I have been away from the site for three years, and there is probably a lot I have missed.

I suppose, then, that I will have to keep Kath as a possible wolf even if Legate is innocent.

Perhaps. Although, the way you put it, that would eliminate you and make Shasta the wolf.

I had ignored these posts as they seemed entirely based on responses to supposition brought up by you. Menel was replying to possibilities rather than stating his actual suspicions. Perhaps less so with the first one but hey I know I'm innocent.

Shasta:
For the remaining wolves to be Kath and Menel, Legate would have to be innocent. Personally, I'm much more suspicious of Legate than I am of Kath. I suppose it could be, though.
--> suggests Nerwen might be right about Kath and Menel being the last wolves
(Emphasis mine. To me this is him suggesting you might be right. It isn't going 'Woah what? You're dead wrong missy' which would be suggesting you were wrong.)

The problem I'm having with that is, what does Wolftarmacil gain by obviously discounting/trusting Kath, if Legate is a wolf?
--> Arguing more against Menel being a wolf.

And I'm done defending. Just wanted to show you where my 'factually incorrect' information is coming from.

After that massive time-waste I'll go look at the actual thread now.

[Kath]

Yeah I will also learn how to quote posts properly one day too.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

After re-reading the thread, I found something of interest.

If the wolf is Kath, then Sally's vote the day she died doesn't make sense - she would have known that she was the last wolf voting, therefore she couldn't have expected any last-minute help to lynch Nogrod, so why would she vote him? This scenario makes more sense if Sally was hoping for some help from Nerwolf.

However, the counterpoint to that is, Nog was also one of the last to vote, and obviously wasn't going to vote himself - and was pretty obviously going to vote Sally - so on the surface it doesn't look like there was much point in Sally voting Nog either way. It's possible she was just going for the misdirection factor, though I don't know how likely it is she voted specifically to implicate Nerwen. Probably not too likely.

This game makes my head hurt.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, this is a slow day. I have to go to work, but I'll be back in a few hours.

[Kath]

Shasta:
Day 1 - thinks it unlikely Menel would ask questions he could have got answered by wolf-mates during the Night. Thinks the wolves would benefit from keeping attention off the Cobbler - this was continuing the earlier debate. Was suspicious of Pitch for questioning the conversation around the Cobbler. Says G55 was the third to throw suspicion at Menel - well technically yes but as she cross posted with Nerwen they were joint second really and so equally pingy for that. Didn't like Agan's hypocritical attitude toward talking about the Cobbler. Wonders why Inzil wasn't hounded for captain obvious statements. Good point about voting Pitch despite saying his vote was reasonable. Bad point about backing off Menel - based on assumption entirely from Shasta.
Vote: G55

Day 2 - points out that sally blew G55's 'savage blow' comment into something much bigger. sally is in no danger at this point so a Shasta-wolf has nothing to lose by point this out. Thinks G55 looks innocent. Questions my stupid Pitch moment. You were following my train of thought I'm afraid - thought could be wolf buddies, then thought that it was unlikely because G55 had voted for him ... then realised he was dead ... Questions about Nog, Menel and Lommy. Suspicious of sally. This could begin a build up to later throwing sally to the lynch mob. At the end of the post before the list post he has G55 down as being innocent. In the next post he says after Nog catching the last slip she now looks suspicious. But there is no mention of cross posting and Nog had not posted in between. This is odd.
Vote: G55

Day 3 - points out that sally fits Menel's wolf description. Continuing build up of suspicion to avoid it himself? Good forward planning if so! Points out he voted for G55 the Day before as well so he actually had wanted to lynch G55. Points out that either Legate or Kath must have been a wolf for the wolves not to jump on an early vote. Correct as it turns out. Despite earlier point sally out himself is now reluctant to agree that she is suspicious given she has been around so little. Seriously stalled at the end. I know he gave an explanation but he pushed and pushed that deadline with 'ooh but wait' comments.
Vote: sally (cross-posting with Nog on the deadline)

Day 4 - explains that he'd suddenly thought sally was the Ranger. Suspicion of Menel as he may have been coasting under the radar and because he appeared to leave himself as the third wolf in his post.
Vote: Legate

Day 5 - thinks Menel is picking on him because he wasn't around to defend himself. Shasta says I can't be considered innocent just because I didn't follow Legate's vote. I entirely disagree here. Had I been a wolf and knew we could have won the game this Day I would have.
Vote: Menel (looks like I would have been second choice)

Nerwen:
Day 1 - second person who says Menel is stating the obvious but perhaps this is due to not having played in a while. Explains Agan's use of 'her' to G55. Points out to Inzil that G55 had cross posted with her - thus two consecutive complaints about Menel. Mentions Menel again, saying he repeated his statements and so got more attention for it than Inzil. Still questions G55's confusion about Agan.
No vote.

Day 2 - So, I wonder who and what we're dealing with here. Innocent Nogrod? Nogwolf tossing his comrade under the bus? Nogwolf cackling to himself at the initial success of his frame-up on an innocent? Discuss. Not a fan of this comment as previously mentioned. Asks why G55 doesn't think the wolves saw Inzil as the Seer. Questions G55 a lot over a comment which looks fairly clear. G55 thought the wolves hadn't definitely determined that Inzil was the Seer, but rather thought he'd be a good kill who might happen to be the Seer. Catches G55 saying 'Galwolf'. This did look pretty damning at the time, though Nerwen is still leaving an out. Says Nog is high on her list of wolf suspects toDay - despite saying nothing about him since that first comment. Reluctantly says sally could be the Cobbler, or Lommy might be.
Vote: G55

Day 3: Can't figure out why we're 'doomed'. If a wolf ought to have a good grasp of the numbers so makes sense. Points out sally has misunderstood Nog. Didn't like Shasta or G55's 'remove the distraction' theory. I kind of agree but at the same time we'd have had another full Day of it if G55 hadn't been lynched. Questions Nog - without giving an opinion. Pooh-poohs Agan's sally suspicion. Defends herself against me. Now explains Nog suspicion - basically that he explained himself too many times. At the time, maybe, but Nog is particularly verbose and circular. Questions Menel for not thinking about wolf-on-wolf votes. Says Shasta, Legate and sally could be the wolves as they hadn't wanted to vote G55 until sally was an option. Totally spot on or giving two out of three?
Votes: sally (cross posted with Shasta - not Nog - knew she was lynching sally with this vote)

Day 4 - rescinds idea that Shasta hadn't wanted to vote G55, after Nog says he'll look at it. Points out the sally lynch wasn't a sure-fire thing. Says Legate being a wolf does not rule Kath out. Says Menel just repeats other people's points. Attacks Menel for not thinking about wolf-on-wolf votes.
Vote: Legate (with massive caveat)

Day 5 - dealt with all that jazz. Still opposes Menel's wolf-on-wolf/not wolf-on-wolf voting system thing. Wonders if Legate's massive defense of Menel makes him a wolf. No. I mean we know that now, but no anyway. Twisty turny Menel round in circles. He said he thought it was interesting that Shasta had remained suspicious to him the whole time, at this point only one person can be a wolf, he thinks then that it is Shasta, putting Nerwen in the clear. Why is this a problem to Nerwen? Aaah, am now understanding problems from yesterDay - didn't collate my end suspicions into 'not my brain' format. 'Largely led by Nerwen and Shasta' did not mean I thought both were wolves - indeed, how could they be? It should be been followed by 'and of the two I think Nerwen is the wolf doing this and Shasta less likely to be'.
Vote: Menel (again with the caveat)

Posting. Reading.

[Kath]

Nerwen has ripped into those lynchees who were innocent. Those who were wolves got off pretty lightly in comparison. G55 and Menel got hounded. sally and Legate didn't.

[Kath]

Don't like Shasta's wavering around sally at the last minute. Suddenly realised she could be saved but had to hold off other votes? Too risky really, and he'd shown no 'ready to vote' suspicion of Nog so couldn't go down that route. Would have been less suspicious really to have just voted and have done with it.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Checking in from phone.

Kath, don't you think it's a little odd that I'd spend all that time being suspicious of Sally, as a wolf, only to turn around and try to save her at the last second? This is one of those "if I were a wolf" moments, but I like to think I wouldn't be that obvious.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Kath

Nerwen has ripped into those lynchees who were innocent. Those who were wolves got off pretty lightly in comparison. G55 and Menel got hounded. sally and Legate didn't.

I didn't "rip into" G55, in my opinion. I did "rip into" Menel– because he was behaving horribly suspiciously and couldn't give a decent account of himself– and I was the only one around for much of that time.

[Nerwen]

Oh, and "factually incorrect", Kath– well, for a start, that we all x-posted at the Day 3 deadline. I had already explained that this was not the case, and that therefore *as far as I knew*, I was casting the kill-vote on Sally.

I'm sorry if I was rude, but frankly I was getting quite fed-up by that kind of thing from you, Kath, and as I said I had to get it off my chest in the hope of not being prejudiced against you later on.

EDIT:word left out