Game Thread: TIG XCII - Disaster by the Lake

[A Little Green]

Here and catching up! I'll be playing while writing a 10-page paper for tomorrow, so I might actually end up being around at DL again... Anyway, off to read, I've only skimmed and it looks like more than half the village has revealed as something!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Aww, my heart, I'm honored you chose me to counter-reveal against. Warms my heart, it does.

Lottie, darling, are you sure you aren't a wolf? Sally wasn't countered until today (when the pack is in danger), G55 hasn't been countered at all, and she confirms me, so...

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Lottie, darling, are you sure you aren't a wolf?

Pretty sure. Seems like the sort of thing one would have noticed, doesn't it?

[Nogrod]

Oh my.

Everything looks pretty clear: the original revealments, with all the oddities involved, look way more believable than the ones by Nerwen & Kit which were both lame and late.

Still I am feeling something's wrong here.

I'm going to read toDay again and try to clear this mess in my head.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Pretty sure. Seems like the sort of thing one would have noticed, doesn't it?

If the original revelations are true you more or less have to be a wolf Lottie. I can see your careful wording that you're "pretty" sure, not a 100% sure then?

[Galadriel55]

and how come G55 had dreamt of her [Nerwen] as well?

(If you're asking me about why her) I learned my lesson well.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

More importantly, how was Sally so positive it was Nerwen? Nerwen is most probably guilty, but one of those "gifted" has to be lying. They couldn't all be 100% positive Nerwen was a wolf. Nothing is 100% in this game unless you've had a seer dream or your suspect is dead.

I thought I was rather obvious with hinting about Nerwen and Pitch, at least if you go back and look at my earlier posts again. But neither you nor Nog seem see the clues. So either I was not as obvious as I thought, or you are denying fact to try to avoid a village victory.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Well, well, well. Nerwen, Kit, and Nog are the wolves, with A Little Green cobbler on top?

Problem is, we don't know who's the ordo, and therefore don't know which people are the wolves.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Sally said Nerwen was guilty before the seer revealed.

Yesterday I thought Sally was the cobbler for sure. This village can't have two hunters afterall. She had to be the cobbler, right? What could a wolf gain with a false reveal when no apparent danger was presented? Then Bom latched onto it, classic wolf behavior to my mind, but he was innocent. I thought he saw the cobbler and was trying to hint to her that they were on the same team.
And today "hunter" Sally reveals Nerwen as a wolf before the seer does? Nonsense! Three people say Nerwen is guilty. One of those is orchestrated by the wolves on Night 4.

The following conversation happened between me and sally yesterDay (I'm exaggerating a bit for fun's sake, but only a bit):

Sally: are you the Seer?
G55: I won't tell you directly because I don't know your intentions, but I may or may not be.
Sally: I'm the hunter.
G55: I think I can trust you. I accept your words about who you are, and I think you know who I am. Nerwolf is evil.
Sally: Yes, I know you're the Seer, and I trust you. I know you dreamed Nerwolf.

Did I miss anything, Sally?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I'm the Ranger. G55 and– much as it pains me to relate– my pearl are either wolves, or wolf + cobbler who have somehow managed to signal to each other. Earlier I was hoping to confuse the cobbler and/or get an incriminating reaction out of someone, but I think that's gone on long enough.

I protected Sally last Night, so I know she's not a wolf, anyway. I guessed the pack would feel it was safe to go after her because of her vote on me. Of course she could still be the cobbler– I've got no way of knowing, obviously.

Liar. Not that I blame you, you being a known wolf and all...


ToDay the wolves are already spinning the association/reverse psychology web that I expected from Nog yesterDay. How do I know if Nerwen is accusing a fellow to make her look good, or expecting us to think this way, accusing an innocent?

One more thing: anyone who does not vote Nerwen (the only known wolf) toDay is evil.

[Nogrod]

Okay. I read both yesterDay and then went through G55's posts from D1 to this Day to see about her claim & how this trio emerged from there to answer some of my worries... and I must admit I was more or less answered by that labour.

So it seems this will end up in a last minute rush votes whichever way we look at it as with Greenie being the cobbler she will know G55 has it correct - and interestingly she has said she can be around at the DL...


Heh, I was almost going to write here why I came to the conclusion I did but only then realised that it wouldn't interest any of you the least as I'm the only one who doesn't know the situation... and thus am the only one interested in getting confident about how things are.

Things being as I think they are I must raise my (imaginary) hat to you guys for making quite risky leaps of faith and getting them right: that's not an everyday thing in werewolf. And I do have to add this still... it is that sudden unwavering confidence that still kind of nags at the back of my head telling me it can't be true and that it was too smooth, like you had planned it together.

But then again, no ranger-Nerwen would have made that first reaction toDay suggesting we adopt Sally's plan from yesterDay toDay. And sure any real gifted would have made a feistier counter-reveal - had there been one.


I'll refrain from voting for a moment if Boro decides to reveal some twisted new dynamics to this game - or if someone does something considerably mind-boggling (I still have a few essays to read so I'm not able to go to sleep just yet - but I can't afford to stay up until the DL either as it would leave with three hours of sleep).

So a vote for Nerwen coming in ½-1 hours.


EDIT: X'd with Galadriel

[A Little Green]

A couple of things I don't understand about this mess. (Only a couple? No, a good many, actually! But - err - a couple I think we could use some clarification on.)

Originally Posted by Gal yesterDay, re: Nog

ToDay I will just pretend to be deaf to his posts and try my best to ignore his comments. If he's serving for the evil side (which I'm almost 100% sure he is) he'll try to use all kinds of tricks on us before he dies (if he dies, but he'll use them either way), and personally I don't want my mind muddled with reverse psychology and associations and whatnot from him. He sure knows how to confuse people. I don't want to be led around by him to a wrong direction.

Originally Posted by Gal

ToDay the wolves are already spinning the association/reverse psychology web that I expected from Nog yesterDay. How do I know if Nerwen is accusing a fellow to make her look good, or expecting us to think this way, accusing an innocent?

Gal, if you were the Seer, why wouldn't you have dreamed Nog last Night? Or any Night? You seem quite convinced he's evil, yet you say you haven't dreamed of him. Would be a very risky thing to do as a Seer, I'd say, considering how close the village would read your posts in case you died.

Second thing. Both Gal and Shasta seem convinced Kit is a wolf, though she doesn't appear on Gal's dream list either. I'm sure this has been explained before, but I'd like you to do it once again, please.

Third thing. The shared "knowledge" of Shasta, Sally and Gal that Nerwen is a wolf already before the "Seer" revealed her just doesn't make sense, full stop.

Fourth thing. Just speculating here. People seem to build two wolf packs - or two gifted packs - but what is neither of the two "packs" is actually there? What if half of one and half of the other are bluffing?


EDIT: x-ed with Noggins

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nog

and interestingly she has said she can be around at the DL...

In fact I take that back - I've just finished my paper, it's past 1 AM, and I need to go to bed in a minute.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

In fact I take that back - I've just finished my paper, it's past 1 AM, and I need to go to bed in a minute.

Surprise me and do not vote Shasta... and there will be no "who gets in the last vote" game of seconds toDay.

That way we could do this fair and straight toMorrow and not let the chance decide.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nog

Surprise me and do not vote Shasta... and there will be no "who gets in the last vote" game of seconds toDay.

That way we could do this fair and straight toMorrow and not let the chance decide.

Nice try, mate. The thing is, why would I? Why hand the Day over to someone I know is lying?

I am not the cobbler. Gal is. And if you haven't realized what that makes me, please don't say it aloud.

[A Little Green]

That said -

++ Shasta

Good night, and good luck.

[Nogrod]

Love you Greenie! I mean you more or less removed my last suspicion.

++ Nerwen


It's then up to the boldest watcher for the last possible second to send in a qualified vote. An interesting way to decide a werewolf-game...

Maybe we could call this a draw?

[Galadriel55]

My only clue I have been able to give on Day1 was my vote.

Day2:

I wrote 2 suspicion list, one at the beginning and one at the end of the Day. And they look pretty much the same. I'm quoting the first one:

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Anyways, some basic impressions from yesterDay:

Pitch: I didn’t locate any fur on him. Looks innocent enough to me.

Bom: is Bom. I didn’t expect anything other than silliness from him. Can’t say anything about his alignment, though.

Nerwen: hard to say anything about her just yet. But this game she doesn’t make me nervous or scare me like in previous games, though I try to keep in mind how deadly sharp she can be to either side.

Kit, Shasta, and Greenie are sensible, and hopefully innocent.

Nog: sometimes made neat points, but at other times he has been plain illogical. I don’t want to condemn him right away because of that, though; he might be an innocent who looks at things differently than I do, or he might be a wolf who left some holes in his persuasion, or a cobbler who is just messing with our heads and taking our attention off the real wolves. Currently I think the last two are more likely.

Lottie: sweet-tongued. Defensive. I understand her defensiveness, but I haven’t played enough with her to tell if her tone is normal. I guess it is, since no one commented on it before.

Agan: is confusing. Jokes are jokes, but by the end of Day 1 you do stop fooling around with obvious silly bluffing. What’s up with your wolf-packs?

You might have noticed that here, just like on the second list, I am uncomitted about anyone except for Pitch (whom I've dreamed that Night), and I single out Nerwen, saying that she's "deadly sharp". Also, she doesn't make me nervous, because I know her role already and don't have to worry about puzzling her out.

The following was written so that in the event of my death someone would be able to put 2+2 together:

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Lucky you haven’t! If you look at the state of my room you'll know why I would never be asked to run anything in RL, let alone a kitchen when all the time something burns, boils over, goes bad... To give you some idea about that, the only things in my room that I constantly put away as a rule are scissors and pins. I once almost sat on one.

Bolding here to emphasise the key words. Remember how I said that Nerwen is "deadly sharp"?

Night/Day3

Was about to dream Nog, but decided that it's unefficient since he's in the centre of attention and likely to be lynched the next Day. So I dreamt Shasta instead.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Noooo!!! What has our shepherd ever done to you wolves? He's not a boy, and he didn't cry "wolf"...

Or did he? I'm going over his posts.

Here I mourn for ordo!Pitch because I felt like I have hinted too much about him, thus revealing both our identities (but the wolves didn't want to lose Nerwen so early on, so they let me live). But there was still a possibility that I had nothing to do with it and that Pitch was killed because he suspected Kit. But my dream was made a waste either way.

And here comes my conversation with sally:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Galadriel, please answer a question for me.

Are you an ordo? Or do you have a specific role? Please don't say which one, and of course don't expect me to necessarily believe you, but answer nonetheless.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

What kind of question is this? We're all ordos here, remember? It's just that some of us secretly aren't, and they won't tell you about it. I'm just as ordinary as you are, or seem, or try to seem. And if you're sensible you wouldn't pay too much attention to that last sentence, because everyone would tell you that, regardless of role.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Kill me, and I can almost assure you there will only be three.

(the reveal.... kinda goes over 2 posts)

I nitpick Nerwen's posts trying to find a reason for her to look suspicious enough to be lynched. That continues for a few posts. Greenie and Kit also get a couple pokes here and there. Call me a hypercrite. I am. (ie I accused Nerwen of grabbing every strand of other's posts, and did it myself with hers)

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

*Shoves a bucketful of apples at Shasta* as long as you use them for the good of the village, they're there!


Suspicion list:

GUILTY
Nerwen. Don't like how desperately she wants sally ot of the way.
Nog. Impersonating the Seer. Most likely cobbler.

INNOCENT (ish)
Sally. I trust her.
Shasta. He looks like an innocent who tries to do his best, and really he did even more than other innocents with that Aganalysis, although it turned out wrong. It did not come out of nowhere.

Unknown
Everyone else.

...

Edit 2: Good luck, village! You'll need it! Just keep your eyes open.

Need I explain this one, after I bolded out the important parts?

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

For the record....

++Nerwen

It's not like it matters now anyway.

I took this to mean that "for the record", sally guessed at my role, and believed me.

Night4:

Between Kit and Greenie chose to dream Greenie.


After seeing all this, do you not trust that I'm the Seer and that Nerwen, Shasta, and Greenie are who I said they are?

Edit: xed since #327

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, Lottie, if you aren't evil, be a dear and vote Nerwen for us?

[satansaloser2005]

After all this is over, I actually have quite the interesting story....

In the meantime, let's have everyone vote for Nerwen and be done with it.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Well, Lottie, if you aren't evil, be a dear and vote Nerwen for us?

Of course, Shasta dear. And hey, don't worry, I'll be around come DL to vote, so you don't have to bother. Go ahead and vote now.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

A couple of things I don't understand about this mess. (Only a couple? No, a good many, actually! But - err - a couple I think we could use some clarification on.)

Ah, you've come to muddle up the waters for us...

But I'll clarify anyways just in case some other baddies would want to jump on your questions.

Gal, if you were the Seer, why wouldn't you have dreamed Nog last Night? Or any Night? You seem quite convinced he's evil, yet you say you haven't dreamed of him. Would be a very risky thing to do as a Seer, I'd say, considering how close the village would read your posts in case you died.

True thing that it was risky, but I believed that I left enough clues for the village to figure out who my dream was.

And I was inches away from sending Nog's name in twice. But the first time decided that the less in-the-spotlight Pitch was more dangerous, and some things that he said rang alarm bells. Next Night I actually sent his name in, but then realised that it is an unefficient dream; I expected him to be the topic of discussion on D3, and possibly the lynch. So before Boro replied to me I asked him if I could change my pick to Shasta, and he kindly allowed me.

Second thing. Both Gal and Shasta seem convinced Kit is a wolf, though she doesn't appear on Gal's dream list either. I'm sure this has been explained before, but I'd like you to do it once again, please.

Interactions.

Third thing. The shared "knowledge" of Shasta, Sally and Gal that Nerwen is a wolf already before the "Seer" revealed her just doesn't make sense, full stop.

Hinting.

Fourth thing. Just speculating here. People seem to build two wolf packs - or two gifted packs - but what is neither of the two "packs" is actually there? What if half of one and half of the other are bluffing?

Shasta and myself are real gifteds. Nerwen is a real wolf. This fact is as solid as stone.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Well, Lottie, if you aren't evil, be a dear and vote Nerwen for us?

I have a bad feeling that the wolves are not going t risk it and will vote Nerwen to look good toMorrow. Not that I mind extra Nerwen votes, but they don't necessarily mean anything.


Gonna look at all the "question mark"s' posts to see if they could contain evidence of the player's role.

Edit: xed with Lottie*2

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Of course, Shasta dear. And hey, don't worry, I'll be around come DL to vote, so you don't have to bother. Go ahead and vote now.

And what if you don't vote Nerwen on DL? Shasta is the only person in this game (except for myself, but I already voted) whom I can trust 100%. No, forget that. 200%.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Shasta is the only person in this game (except for myself, but I already voted) whom I can trust 100%. No, forget that. 200%.

Ahem.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

And what if you don't vote Nerwen on DL? Shasta is the only person in this game (except for myself, but I already voted) whom I can trust 100%. No, forget that. 200%.

Oh, come on, now, what's the fun without a little risk?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Of course, Shasta dear. And hey, don't worry, I'll be around come DL to vote, so you don't have to bother. Go ahead and vote now.

Thanks, Lottie. Until just now, I really wasn't for certain who the wolf was between you and Nog. Much appreciated.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Thanks, Lottie. Until just now, I really wasn't for certain who the wolf was between you and Nog. Much appreciated.

You're very welcome.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Thanks, Lottie. Until just now, I really wasn't for certain who the wolf was between you and Nog. Much appreciated.

Not while I'm drinking at the computer.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Ahem.

Sorry, sally, but I didn't dream you. I say that I trust you based on gut, not fact. So no 100% here.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Sorry, sally, but I didn't dream you. I say that I trust you based on gut, not fact. So no 100% here.

Lame.

Then again, I suppose I deserve it. Until Shasta's reveal, I didn't trust you either. I totally thought you were a wolf trying to butter me up.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Lame.

Then again, I suppose I deserve it. Until Shasta's reveal, I didn't trust you either. I totally thought you were a wolf trying to butter me up.

Well, technically, you can trust her based on process of elimination. The only other person the Hunter could possibly be is Kit, and... I mean, it's Kit.

(Just teasin', Kit! Love ya! Have an apple?)

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Well, technically, you can trust her based on process of elimination. The only other person the Hunter could possibly be is Kit, and... I mean, it's Kit.

I refuse to take that in good humor.

[Boromir88]

All votes that are time stamped :00 (according to the 'Downs clock) will count. Anything :01 or after won't.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I refuse to take that in good humor.

Oh, thank goodness you're here! I was getting nervous, alone with all these evil wolves!

[satansaloser2005]

As a show of good faith, Lottie, dear, why don't you vote now?

[Galadriel55]

Innocents in italics, wolves in bold, cobbler underlined.

DAY 1

Gal - Nerwen
Kath - Inzil
Inzil - Nog
Greenie - Nog 2 (xed with Zil's vote)
Shasta - Inzil 2
Pitch - Zil 3
Lottie - Nog 3
Kit - Inzil 4
Agan - Zil 5
Nog - Zil 6 (looking at the timing, probably xed with Agan)
Bom - Zil

DAY 2

Kit - Green
Green - Nog
Lottie - Agan
Nog - Agan 2
Pitch - Agan 3 (xed with some posts)
sally - Nog 2 (xed with Pitch)
Agan - Shasta
G55 - Nog 3 (xed with some votes)
Shasta - Agan


DAY 3

Nerwen - Nogrod
Shasta - Bom
Kitanna - Bom (2)
G55 -. Nerwen
Greenie - Bom (3)
Bom - sally
Lottie - Nogrod (2)
Nog - Bom
sally - Nerwen



I'll analyse this in a bit.

Edit: xed since Kit

Edit 2: bolding Lottie's name.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

As a show of good faith, Lottie, dear, why don't you vote now?

Alright!

++Shasta

As it happened, I lied. I won't be able to be online at the DL - my class starts at 8:00pm exactly. Kit, it's up to you now. Make me proud.

[satansaloser2005]

That was classy.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Oh, thank goodness you're here! I was getting nervous, alone with all these evil wolves!

Does something sound illogical here, or is it only me?

There is only one ordo left. If you claim to be the ordo, the only way the above statement could work is if you believed Kit's reveal, which looks furry (the reveal does).

Combined with your desperate plea to be the last one to vote, you really do look like a wolf.

Edit: xed with Wolflote and sally

Hurray! One more wolf discovered!

I'm gonna bold her name on the vote list in my previous post

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I am not the cobbler. Gal is. And if you haven't realized what that makes me, please don't say it aloud.

How can I be sure you're not pretender?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and waiting. You wolves won't win this one. I owe Gwaihir thirty pounds of birdseed if you do. I can't afford that!

[Galadriel55]

We're left with Kit, Nog, and sally as wolf, hunter, and ordo. Sally and Kit claim huntership, Nog doesn't claim anything. My conclusion is that he must be the ordo. And I trust sally much more than Kit, so...

But at least one thing is logically certain: Nog is an ordo.

Edit: xed since my last

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

How can I be sure you're not pretender?

You can be assured that she is.

Edit: where are the votes? *panicks*

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Nerwen

For Gwaihir! And the other residents of Lake-Town!