WW: LXXXVIII - Trouble in the Misty Mountains: Game Thread

[A Little Green]

Also - 20 minutes to DL, right? Where is everybody?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Azura

(Sry for lurking alot just rly fraking busy..and also I still has my noob card)

Not any more, sorry. They come with an expiration date, you know.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Phew. I'm back! (Werewolf at 7 AM is - interesting.)
I was thinking along the same lines, actually. I must now hope Kath is a wolf because, let's face it, we've already lost if she isn't.

Or, from my point of view, we could hope you're a wolf, Greenie.

[Inziladun]

Well! What to do?

Kath-->Greenie (1)
Azura-->Nerwen (1)

[Nerwen]

Anyway– I regret having to do this, but unless Azura is one most deeply-submerged little subs ever, that *was* an innocent on innocent vote.

So– nobody follow that vote! I am the Ranger!

EDIT:X'd with Zil.

[Boromir88]

Well now that Azura's voted. Either there is a wolf amongst Kath or Greenie. Or a wolf amongst Azura and Nerwen.

Otherwise, this game would be over, or the wolves are tormenting us? Or some of you are waiting around for your Laeko packmate just to be sure?

Well horror movies cause me to go insane...and if I were in a horror movie with werewolves, I don't even want to know how far my sanity would fall.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Or, from my point of view, we could hope you're a wolf, Greenie.

I know. There's really nothing to say to that.

That aside, is there any chance of getting a third candidate lynched? I mean, other than by wolves?
(I'd hazard a guess at no.)

Another question: where are the wolves, why aren't they out and gloating yet?


EDIT: x-ed with Inzil, Nerwen, and Boro

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Anyway– I regret having to do this, but unless Azura is one most deeply-submerged little subs ever, that *was* an innocent on innocent vote.

So– nobody follow that vote! I am the Ranger!

Oh, for.....

x/d with Boro and Greenie

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So– nobody follow that vote! I am the Ranger!

I'd be inclined to believe that. I also know I'm not wolf, and know you can't know that. We're screwed, aren't we?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

That aside, is there any chance of getting a third candidate lynched? I mean, other than by wolves?
(I'd hazard a guess at no.)

It doesn't look likely at this point.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Another question: where are the wolves, why aren't they out and gloating yet?

Maybe Laeko is indeed one, and isn't here?

x/d with Greenie

[A Little Green]

Won't choose between the ranger and myself.

++Inzil

[Boromir88]

Is this torment to make up for all the crazy improbabilities that happened Day 1?

Inzil...cause to doubt Nerwen's claim?

[Laeko_Randalis]

Yeah, playing roleplaying games 'til eleven can lead to me not being around, sorry everyone.

I'll be honest, to me Zil and Nerwen look the guiltiest, Zil for, as Boromir pointed out, being extremely unconfrontational and Nerwen for being so defensive.

I guess creating a tie had much more adverse implications than I'd expected, though I do admit my "who will break" comment was pretty stupid. I confess, my crime lies in not wanting to be the newbie who falsely decided someone's fate, particularly given that Galadriel had been putting on a similar defensive air as Nerwen had, and turned out to be one of our gifteds of all things.

And because of that, my vote tonight is

++Zil

[A Little Green]

Oh no oh no oh no. I'm pretty certain everyone is a wolf.

[Nerwen]

I'll *scream* if it turns out two-thirds of the packs were the bloody n00bs!

[Boromir88]

Ok...let' hope.

++Inziladun

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Is this torment to make up for all the crazy improbabilities that happened Day 1?

Inzil...cause to doubt Nerwen's claim?

Nah. She's probably telling the truth.

++Greenie

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Time.

---------

With three votes, Inzil the Wolf is lynched. Congratulations, village. You live to see another day.

Night begins.

Nerwen
Greenie
Boro
Kath
Laeko_Rundalis
Azura

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sorry - the site was down for whatever reason.

The wolves attacked, but the person they attacked was protected by the Ranger.

It is now Day (insert number here).

[Nerwen]

Ha!

It's Day 5, by the way.

[A Little Green]

Can the ranger self-protect?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Can the ranger self-protect?

*shakes head*
Not tellin'.

[Nerwen]

Shasta didn't state publicly how any of the gifted-roles worked earlier, so I don't expect he will now.

[Nerwen]

Still no-one around?

I'm bored.

So why did you want to know, anyway, Greenie? Isn't it best to keep the evil side guessing? (Best for the village, at any rate.)

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So why did you want to know, anyway, Greenie? Isn't it best to keep the evil side guessing? (Best for the village, at any rate.)

But you're not keeping the wolves guessing. They either attacked you or someone else, they know it and you know it. Any extra information you have to give us will only help us now. Today. The only ones you're keeping guessing are the villagers, because the wolves know who they attacked, and you know who you stopped from being killed.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Boro

But you're not keeping the wolves guessing. They either attacked you or someone else, they know it and you know it. Any extra information you have to give us will only help us now. Today. The only ones you're keeping guessing are the villagers, because the wolves know who they attacked, and you know who you stopped from being killed.

That's more or less what I was thinking. The wolves already know whether they attacked you or somebody else.

I'm off to take another look at yesterDay's mess of a voting, I think.

[A Little Green]

Something like this..

Kath - Greenie
Azura - Nerwen
Greenie - Inzil
Laeko - Inzil
Boro - Inzil
Inzil - Greenie

Quite frankly, if Boro and/or Laeko are wolves, they are sporty to a fault. Why kill a fellow instead of winning a game? But if neither of the two is a wolf, that would mean Kath and Azura are. I can say nothing at all about Azura, really, not based on two posts. Kath has looked pretty innocent to me, though I begun to have doubts yesterDay. Should probably have a look at her relationship with Inzil, not sure if I have the time right now but at least I can start.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Quite frankly, if Boro and/or Laeko are wolves, they are sporty to a fault. Why kill a fellow instead of winning a game? But if neither of the two is a wolf, that would mean Kath and Azura are. I can say nothing at all about Azura, really, not based on two posts. Kath has looked pretty innocent to me, though I begun to have doubts yesterDay. Should probably have a look at her relationship with Inzil, not sure if I have the time right now but at least I can start.

The way it boils down for me is 2 wolves amongst:

Greenie
Kath
Laeko
Azura

Based on the voting yesterday, it would appear a wolf either between Greenie and Kath. And a wolf either between Laeko and Azura. Sorry, Greenie, not going to take your word that you're innocent. I need to work out all the possible combinations first, but based on how voting was a bit hectic towards the end. It wouldn't surprise me if 2 wolves were up for lynch yesterday (Greenie and Inzil).

Although, if the innocents split their votes on 2 wolves, then I would think the pack would have enough amongst themselves to vote an innocent. Unless if Greenie and Inzil's 3rd mate was Azura, who votes Nerwen.

I feel like I'm not making any sense right now. But based on the numbers, there seems no way Kath's vote for Greenie could be innocent on innocent. And that Azura's vote for Nerwen also could not be innocent on innocent.

[Boromir88]

I'm going to try to work out all the scenarios of the voting yesterday in my head, so if the running train of thought gets all jumbled up....sorry.

(I) = innocent. (W) = wolf. (R) = Ranger.

Scenario 1.

Kath (I) ---> Greenie (I)

Now if this was the case, then the 3 remaining wolves could have piled on to vote Greenie and win. In this scenario then, Inzil, Laeko, and Azura would be the pack. And maybe the reason Inzil didn't jump on to Kath's vote, because he didn't know if either Azura or Laeko would come in to vote. Then...

Azura (W) ---> Nerwen (R)

This could have been a newbie wolf mistake, instead of voting for the already voted innocent. But it's making scenario 1 look highly unlikely. Then Nerwen reveals to be the Ranger.

Greenie (I) ---> Inzil (W). Based on she know's she's innocent and she's not going to vote the Ranger so she went with her other possibility.

Laeko (W) ---> Inzil (W).

And this is really what makes Scenario 1 not make any sense. Because if Laeko would have added on to vote Greenie, Inziladun did too. And it would make my vote for Inziladun irrelevant. But Laeko voted for Inziladun, so a wolf on wolf vote doesn't make any sense. Scenario 1 can't make sense, and so Kath voting for Greenie was not an innocent-on-innocent.

[Boromir88]

Scenario 2.

Kath (I) ---> Greenie (W)

Ok. So a wolf already has a vote and so now the pack has to try to get an innocent on innocent.

The next vote is Azura's for Nerwen. Nerwen then reveals to be the Ranger. If Azura's innocent, it would make the pack. Inziladun, Greenie and Laeko. And whether Nerwen revealed or not, there would have been enough votes to lynch her. So this pack formation can't make sense because Greenie winds up voting for Inziladun.

If Azura's a wolf, however, then the Inziladun, Greenie, Azura pack makes more sense then the previous. Perhaps in night planning it was decided Nerwen would be the primary innocent target, and it backfired that she turned out to be the ranger?

Azura (W) ---> Nerwen (R)

Nerwen reveals to be the ranger. Wolf-Greenie already having a vote. Knows she can't vote for Nerwen, because Nerwen, Laeko, and I will make votes to save the ranger thus getting Wolf-Greenie lynched.

Although if Greenie were a wolf here. She's not going to vote for herself, she can't vote for Nerwen without being exposed as sealing her own lynch. So in order to save cover, and sort of take the motto of "let's fight another day," she makes a wolf-on-wolf vote for Inzil. The confusing part here though, is if Greenie, Azura and Inzil were the pack, why would Greenie vote Inzil knowing I have been suspicious of him, and Laeko too? Why not vote the other mate, Azura? Or give a vote to another innocent and hope?

If Greenie's a wolf here, it's a confusing vote choice. But the Inzil, Greenie, Azura pack, in this scenario is more plausible than Scenario 1 (Inzil, Laeko, Azura).

Scenario 3.

Kath (W) ---> Greenie (I)

My brain hurts and I need foods. I can't unravel how likely the a Inzil, Kath, and Azura/Laeko pack in this group looks compared to the scenario 2 pack (Inzil, Greenie, Azura) right now. I just wanted to mention it, before I have to leave, that I'll be heading to this scenario next.

And for the sake of it, Scenario 4 would be...

Kath (W) ---> Greenie (W).

which would make absolutely no sense given the circumstances of the day, so that one is easy enough to figure out.

[A Little Green]

KATH
(With emphasis on her relationship with Inzil, and a few other points that stood out to me. Not a complete analysis of all her posts.)

On Day 1, Kath makes a list. (She also votes Sally in the same post.)

Inzil - a loudmouth with some good discussion points! Like it.

In the early parts of Day 2, Kath further explains her Sally vote, which is fair enough considering how much suspicion that vote roused. She then moves on to speculate EW's death:

So I'm thinking really not a trailless kill unless Galadriel or Boro are wolves. Could be an attempt at a Legate set up - if so I'd think we have very bold or very new wolves given Legate voted for him making the connection obvious.

The following passage is potentially interesting in relation to my theory of Kath being a wolf with Azura (or Laeko, for that matter):

What I'm tempted to do is to vote for a potential modfire candidate. That way if Shasta does say modfire is happening then you guys can figure out what to do and my vote might come in useful.

On the other hand, clearly I don't actually suspect either of the potential modfire candidates as there is nothing to suspect them for!

Would a wolf with a fellow under threat of modfire say this? It wouldn't make much of a difference, I suppose, might even serve to make her look good. Then again, would a wolf with an inactive fellow be unaware of the modfire rules? (But then, if Shasta never said anything about them it might be that the wolves really were unaware of the modfire rules..) I'm just not sure. Kath abandons this plan soon enough, though.

From her list of people:

Inzil - really don't like it when people apologise for their votes posthumously (ach, that's not the right words but you know what I mean.) Seems to scream guilt. Could be a particular playing style but even if so I don't like it. Some suspicion of Bom for his vote placement. Agrees with Kitanna about not voting modfires.

Laeko - hey! Our newbie reappeared! This may change our entire modfire thoughts anyway! I like this so far - some good thoughts and reasoned suspicion of sally.

Aaaand vote post:

Possibilities:
Galadriel or Inzil for apologising for voting Pitch. I just find that very suspicious. It's like going 'Oh silly me! Don't blame me now, will you?'

sally for being hypocritical about the modfire situation. You do the same thing as someone else they can't be bad and you be good.

Boro for imagining a Pitch bandwagon and making a bigger deal out of it than there needs to be.

Quick re-read of Galadriel and Inzil's posts. On a re-read, Galadriel didn't actually apologise, she just stated frustration. Inzil on the other hand definitely apologised and tried to backtrack on his suspicion.

++INZIL

Wolf-on-wolf? In itself, it's hard to say this or that. This one becomes more interesting on moving to Day 3. Her comment on Inzil reads as follows:

Inzil - I can see again what Inzil is saying about sally not trying to save Pitch if she had dreamt of him. The timing is interesting though. After 4 votes for Pitch, a sudden blast of defence from sally wouldn't exactly have been a good way of trying to stay hidden! Some interesting points about Kitanna. She is often voting against her previous posts. Or well, not so much against as she is showing suspicion of the people she is voting for, but that those she votes for don't appear to be her top suspects prior to the vote.

She says nothing about whether she finds him suspicious or not, which I find rather curious considering that she voted him the Day before. Inzil has also completely vanished from her list of possible lynchees:

Based on that those I would consider voting would be:

Greenie - For such a flip floppy Nerwen vote. Either sally was an obvious Seer who the wolves were afraid would dream of NerwenWolf, or sally was not an obvious Seer. I just don't think you can have it both ways.

Legate - For that very aggressive tone early on. He has pulled it back but it has been commented on toDay that since doing so he has then tried to portray himself a little as a confused innocent. He may very well be that of course, it's just the slide into that after that very confident start that seems odd.

Boro - For changing from fairly calm, considered Boro to angry!frustrated!argumentative! Boro all in one go. Could be the result of the loss of two Gifteds and therefore his attempt to play more calmly went out the window. Or he's a wolf who has stopped being so bothered about keeping a calm cover after the loss of two Gifteds.

Because I feel my reasoning for Greenie is less so-so than for the others:

++GREENIE

Day 4, then.

Will say I won't vote Azura for the same reasoning as others have given. Seriously doubt s/he is a wolf with so little participation.

So, from the votes Greenie and Laeko seem most suspicious. Boro might be in there too but I'd like to know the answer to that question first.

Inzil - potentially interesting catch on Boro's wording about 'directing the wolves'. That said, Boro could hardly direct the wolves toward ... well ... wolves. Still it's odd wording. I don't like how Inzil doesn't actually make a clear point. It's all 'well I thought that but then' or 'could be this but that'. Yes, it's hard to be decisive, but constantly doing that makes it look like there's something to hide.

Thinks Inzil made a good catch (well, in all fairness, he did), but in the same breath says she doesn't like his cautious style of phrasing it. This looks, to me, most like wolf-on-wolf interaction between Kath and Inzil. In pointing out he made a good point, she strengthens an impression of Zil as a sharp and useful player, while in saying she doesn't like his style she avoids looking too much like his buddy.

Vote post reads as follows:

I cannot bring myself to vote for Laeko. It may be foolish but ... well, if she was a wolf I think she'd have made more mistakes basically. Right now we can't tell if she's newbie or newbie wolf. I think if it's not obvious then it's more likely that she's newbie.

I am leaning innocent with Nerwen. I think her posts come across as overly dramatic and factual but that the ideas and arguments are sound. I wouldn't say players are being manipulated in such derogatory terms, but it's entirely possible that her already somewhat suspicious playing style is being enhanced by the wolves.

I'm not going to vote Boro. If we would have had a double lynch yesterDay if he'd not broken the tie I think it makes his vote look more innocent. If Shasta was simply going to flip a coin and choose then I think it makes him look less innocent. As I'm not going to get an answer to that I'm going to hope Shasta replies later and that the information can be used.

My choice then is between Greenie and Inzil (Boro would be my third wolf if there was no danger of a double lynch yesterDay).

++GREENIE

I still feel her vote against Nerwen yesterDay was based on some very convoluted reasoning, and as I am leaning innocent on Nerwen I obviously disagree with Greenie's continued suspicion of her.

Would be convenient for a wolf to place a fellow as another lynch choice but vote for someone else. Makes her look good on the offchance the said fellow gets lynched at some point, but at the same time does not endanger him on a crucial Day. Her previous posts don't bring forth Inzil as a lynch candidate, she only brings up the idea in the same post where she already votes another player.

Conclusion about Kath? If she's a wolf, she's playing a careful game, there's nothing I could point at and call ”wolf!” She's been suspecting Inzil somewhat: voting him on Day 2, not really mentioning him Day 3, and bringing him up as a lynch candidate on Day 4. Not too much for wolf-on-wolf, in my mind.

Just based on yesterDay's votes, I'd be leaning on thinking Kath a wolf.

[A Little Green]

To sum up -

If Boro is a wolf, he's flipping mad.
If Nerwen is a wolf, the real ranger is mad.
If both Laeko and Azura are wolves, Shasta is mad.

Regardless of the fact that werewolf often is a little mad, any of those scenarios look a bit too much so. Therefore -

++Kath

Good night!

[Kath]

Very sorry. Stupidly busy day. No internet. Posting this at parents house before running back to my own to sleep. Have checked mod post but haven't read the thread. Going with what I did yesterDay as a result as feel no vote is less use than at least a previously reasoned vote so thoughts/suspicions etc currently still level with my last post yesterDay.

++GREENIE

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

But you're not keeping the wolves guessing. They either attacked you or someone else, they know it and you know it. Any extra information you have to give us will only help us now. Today. The only ones you're keeping guessing are the villagers, because the wolves know who they attacked, and you know who you stopped from being killed.

I have a reason. Just waiting to see a few more people's reactions.

Anyway, your guess at the pack is the same as mine. Actually, I thought the same yesterDay, and to, quote Greenie, "nothing has happened to change my mind".
The newbies do throw things out a bit, though, especially Azura,– it's always possible we're dealing with a wolf-cub who has had neither time nor interest even to graps what's going on. However, if Greenie is a wolf, I think Laeko would make the most sense as her fellow– as well as having a history of supporting Inzilawolf.

EDIT:X'd with Boro.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The newbies do throw things out a bit, though, especially Azura,– it's always possible we're dealing with a wolf-cub who has had neither time nor interest even to graps what's going on. However, if Greenie is a wolf, I think Laeko would make the most sense as her fellow– as well as having a history of supporting Inzilawolf.

But if Laeko was the 3rd wolf, even after you revealed it wouldn't matter, Greenie, Inzil, and Laeko could have all voted for you and won. Unless...Greenie was unsure Laeko would be back to vote, because I believe Laeko's one post with vote came after Greenie's vote.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

But if Laeko was the 3rd wolf, even after you revealed it wouldn't matter, Greenie, Inzil, and Laeko could have all voted for you and won. Unless...Greenie was unsure Laeko would be back to vote, because I believe Laeko's one post with vote came after Greenie's vote.

Laeko's post came seven minutes after Greenie's, and both were in the last ten minutes. See, this is what throws the calculations out– if one of the n00bs is a wolf– and really, I don't see what else makes sense– then the others might have been in doubt whether he/she would show up at all.

[Nerwen]

That in itself would point to Azura more than Laeko, but not conclusively. Laeko has just sounded a fair bit more calculatingly wolfy to me– whereas Azura just seems uninterested and confused. Could be a confused *wolf*, though. In fact, come to think of it, you may be right. I mean, there was a fashion a while back for giving newbie wolves minimal guidance, so it wouldn't look like they were being coached.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

That in itself would point to Azura more than Laeko, but not conclusively. Laeko has just sounded a fair bit more calculatingly wolfy to me– whereas Azura just seems uninterested and confused. Could be a confused *wolf*, though. In fact, come to think of it, you may be right. I mean, there was a fashion a while back for giving newbie wolves minimal guidance, so it wouldn't look like they were being coached.

These next few hours are going to be the death of me, because I keep going back and forth. Laeko was looking suspect before we knew about Inzil's role, and I agree would look more like the calculative wolf.

But when Azura has posted...with just the vote and like 2 sentences. Both times he's tried to play the newbie card. The general "don't hate me, I'm still a newbie" feelings. Which quite frankly, comes off as very wolvy to me.

So we have one first-timer who looks more coached up, and thus suspicious. And the other, who is looking for sympathy "I'm only a newbie," and therefor suspicious. Ugh.

[Laeko_Randalis]

I've begun suspecting Azura for the past few days, for the one big reason that he never posts anything but votes. Now, on the one hand, it's very possible that this guy just wants to put the least amount of work in. However, my logic goes as thus: "if he were innocent, he wouldn't fear giving anything away, and he'd be more likely to actually say more than just a vote. However, were he a wolf, it would actually make sense for him to say as little as possible in an attempt to avoid giving himself away."

What I don't like in this case is knowing that, unless someone else agrees with me, voting for Azura would be a waste of a vote at this point.

EDIT: I must have spaced off Boro's post, 'cause now I see him making a similar point.

P.S. A "flaw," as it were, in a certain logical string I'm seeing: if I were a calculating/coached wolf, would I really have made my stupid tie-maker back when I voted Nerwen?

[Laeko_Randalis]

Oh, flub it all, I see no one else wants to cast the first vote in that direction, either, so I'm going to do it and hope the wolves don't come for me next.

++Azura

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Laeko

P.S. A "flaw," as it were, in a certain logical string I'm seeing: if I were a calculating/coached wolf, would I really have made my stupid tie-maker back when I voted Nerwen?

Why not? Even calculating wolves make mistakes. And dammit, why are you acting like Azura's the only option? We know there's two wolves, and I say there's more against Greenie than anyone else.