WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, how should I put this: I am not that sad about the two deaths toNight, because it has eliminated two people I have been rather unsure about. Which sort of clears the field.

Nonetheless, I think it is about time for us to get a Wolf. The village is getting smaller, too small for four Wolves AND two kills per Night. Also, the fact that even the Cobbler is still around makes me rather nervous.

So... what about those of my suspects, then, who are still alive. Skip, Boro, Rikae? Nessa, who escaped the gallows yesterDay, and what about again Zil, her gallant savior? And who knows about Pitchwife? Or what about all the quieter folk? Don't we have a team, after all, which is made only out of them? (Something like Greenie-Mänwe-LRH-Cailín/Nessa/BG or something... would actually make a lot of sense, especially in relation to the first Night awkward kills. Maybe if I scratch Greenie from that and make it one of the five, it would make the most sense, as there is a slight chance Greenie would not like to kill Ozban or Kath.)

I guess I will just leave now - I am actually feeling quite tired and sleepy; I would like to look at and consider why Lommy and Val have been targeted. I am not really in the mood right now, though, I will do it in the morning - I am sure meanwhile somebody else will look at it too, but still. In any case, it will be also interesting to read what other people think.

EDIT: x-ed with Agan and Zil

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Ach, I'm sorry Lottie. I let myself be swayed at the last second by Nessa. Her defense of you looked genuine. Hats off to her if she's a wolf.

I can understand where the desire to lynch me might be present. If you feel you just can't deal with the uncertainty, or you can't find anyone else who looks worse, go for it. I rather wish you wouldn't, because it won't net you a baddie, and these double kills are fast mounting up.
I'm off work tomorrow, so I'll do my best to be as productive as possible.

Zil, after reading this (especially the underlined part - underlining mine, of course) - I cannot help to ask: Aren't you perchance the Cobbler?

Nonetheless, I really have to wait for your answer (unless it is super-fast) till morning, I really have to go to sleep...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Zil, after reading this (especially the underlined part - underlining mine, of course) - I cannot help to ask: Aren't you perchance the Cobbler?

Nonetheless, I really have to wait for your answer (unless it is super-fast) till morning, I really have to go to sleep...

No, I am not the Cobbler.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

No, I am not the Cobbler.

What else could you say, anyway. Okay, will be back in some later hours.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

What else could you say, anyway.

Precisely. I don't think it's likely people are going to simply take my word for it.

[Rikae]

Well, Inzil ought to to a bit better job of explaining than "swayed by Nessa" if he wants to be let off the hook. Clearly the outcome was very important to him, but he wasn't the one being lynched at the end there.

Lommy voted for him, and Valier suspected him. Continued framing attempt? It's pretty extreme, for that. Double bluff? The way the lynch went yesterDay, it would seem at least one of Nessa or Inzil has to be a wolf, or at least at the time I was thinking "there wouldn't be these many waiting until the last minute unless a wolf was on the line". Still, I suppose it's always possible that the wolves are trying to push the predictable lynch of Inzil because they can (rather than because Nessa is a wolf); and, on the other hand, I don't like his passive response at all. It doesn't strike me as innocentish, certainly not framed-innocentish.

[Rikae]

Well, Inzil ought to to a bit better job of explaining than "swayed by Nessa" if he wants to be let off the hook. Clearly the outcome was very important to him, but he wasn't the one being lynched at the end there.

Lommy voted for him, and Valier suspected him. Continued framing attempt? It's pretty extreme, for that. Double bluff? The way the lynch went yesterDay, it would seem at least one of Nessa or Inzil has to be a wolf, or at least at the time I was thinking "there wouldn't be these many waiting until the last minute unless a wolf was on the line". Still, I suppose it's always possible that the wolves are trying to push the predictable lynch of Inzil because they can (rather than because Nessa is a wolf); and, on the other hand, I don't like his passive response at all. It doesn't strike me as innocentish, certainly not framed-innocentish.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, Inzil ought to to a bit better job of explaining than "swayed by Nessa" if he wants to be let off the hook. Clearly the outcome was very important to him, but he wasn't the one being lynched at the end there.

The outcome was important because I wanted to make the right choice. If Nessa hadn't chimed in when she did I would have gone with her.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Still, I suppose it's always possible that the wolves are trying to push the predictable lynch of Inzil because they can (rather than because Nessa is a wolf); and, on the other hand, I don't like his passive response at all. It doesn't strike me as innocentish, certainly not framed-innocentish.

You know, since I've been suspected by some from the start, and that last vote wasn't exactly a shining example of my innocence, I was feeling fairly confident I'd be a main target toDay. Like I said, I'm not going to merely fade away, but I'm resigned to the fact that this Day could be my last.

[Macalaure]

A look at the votes first.

Nessa -> Rikae (no solid reason - needs to contribute more, or eventually she'll wind up lynched)
BG -> Nessa (didn't contribute much either, but avoided the spotlight so far)
Loslote -> Kitanna
skip -> e_d (not happy with him. One I'd like to look at closer toDay)
Eomer -> Nessa(2) (not too happy with him either, but I recall that I'm always worried about him, so unless he worries me a lot, I'll let him be)
Shasta -> Lottie (I should have a closer look at his case before I pass judgement)
Pitch -> Nessa(3) (confused about him - definitely need a closer look)
Valier -> Skip
Greenie -> Inzil (not sure, not sure)
Rikae -> Lottie(2), then Inzil (3) (I don't see why wolf-Rikae would have done this; Inzil's guilt would clear her)
Lommy -> Inzil(2)
Cailín -> Lottie(2) (she thought she gave Lottie her third vote, not sure what to think of her at this point)
Mac -> Lottie(3) (I was getting worried about all the people thinking I'm innocent - sometimes giving a crucial vote for an innocent pays off )
e_d -> Lottie (4) (don't know what to think at all)
Aganzir -> Nessa (4) (alright)
Legate -> Nessa(5) (alright)
Inzil -> Lottie(5) (Nessa=wolf => Inzil=bad)

Nessa's guilt would more or less clear all her voters. She was an unlikely wolf-on-wolf victim, since a bandwaggon against her was very probable from the beginning on.

Back later with thoughts about the killed and what I said above.

[Rikae]

Ok, so I double posted because of something weird going on with the site - sorry about that. Anyway:

Inzil, how does making the right choice necessitate waiting until the very last second? Also, what is "Legate 180" supposed to mean?

At any rate, it makes perfect sense IF the wolves thought Inzil was seer-dreamed to go after the possible seer(s) and sacrifice him toDay to save the rest. So it may indeed be in our best interests to go with the obvious choice, but I, for one, intend to take a close look at everyone I can.

[Mänwe]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Or what about all the quieter folk? Don't we have a team, after all, which is made only out of them? (Something like Greenie-Mänwe-LRH-Cailín/Nessa/BG or something... would actually make a lot of sense, especially in relation to the first Night awkward kills.

Quieter folk are the easiest to tarnish with the same brush and leave the greater possibility for a judgement error on behalf of their would be jurors. Although I would concede the more quiet the less likely you are to say something that'll give you away. But this reminds me of something Rikae mentioned that irked me a little

Originally Posted by Rikae

...but if we lynch a good quiet one, at least the remaining innocents will be the more helpful ones, alive or wolf-killed

I don't see how some of the most talkative ones can be considered more helpful due to the possibility that every word they say is designed to mislead or indeed because they write so long a post people don't want to read it

Quiet can't be so black or white, for in those names that Legate mentioned there are those who have made the odd post, and those that have popped in to vote; two very different quiet "strategies" if you will...elronds_daughter being case in point with two very wild votes.

Also, Legate

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Maybe if I scratch Greenie from that and make it one of the five, it would make the most sense, as there is a slight chance Greenie would not like to kill Ozban or Kath.)

May I ask you to clarify this point about Greenie not wanting to vote Oz or Kath?

Maybe more questions ought to be asked of the two extremes, those who just pop into vote and those who do the most talking..

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Inzil, how does making the right choice necessitate waiting until the very last second? Also, what is "Legate 180" supposed to mean?

Initially, I was waiting around to see if I would get any more votes, and vote to save myself accordingly. The "Legate 180" referred to my sudden opinion change.

Originally Posted by Rikae

At any rate, it makes perfect sense IF the wolves thought Inzil was seer-dreamed to go after the possible seer(s) and sacrifice him toDay to save the rest. So it may indeed be in our best interests to go with the obvious choice, but I, for one, intend to take a close look at everyone I can.

I think I'd be a likely Seer-dream, but it doesn't concern me.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Ach, I'm sorry Lottie. I let myself be swayed at the last second by Nessa. Her defense of you looked genuine. Hats off to her if she's a wolf.

Er, pardon? You think Nessa's defense of Lottie was genuine, and this prompts you to vote the one she defended? Does not compute.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I can understand where the desire to lynch me might be present. If you feel you just can't deal with the uncertainty, or you can't find anyone else who looks worse, go for it. I rather wish you wouldn't, because it won't net you a baddie, and these double kills are fast mounting up.

If you're indeed innocent, I don't think it would be such a terribly bright idea to lynch you just to know for sure, for precisely the reason you mention. Just saying.

In other news, I'm beginning to have second thoughts about Nessa. I mean, it all fits - two innocents lynched to save her two Days in a row, with a Night-kill pointing to her sandwiched between them - but isn't it all a bit obvious? And I've got to admit that her last minute defense of Lottie, at a time when it looked like she'd most likely be lynched, is a point in her favour.

Anyway, I feel I've been concentrating on her a bit too exclusively and need to have a look at some other people - after some hours of sleep. See ya.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Er, pardon? You think Nessa's defense of Lottie was genuine, and this prompts you to vote the one she defended? Does not compute.

According to the standings at the time, Nessa had five votes, Lottie had four. When Nessa came back at the last second, I acted on a gut feeling and decided to save her by voting Lottie. As I'd said, I didn't really want to vote for Lottie, but if I hadn't Nessa would have been killed. If she turns out to be a wolf, I was fooled, plain and simple.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

In other news, I'm beginning to have second thoughts about Nessa. I mean, it all fits - two innocents lynched to save her two Days in a row, with a Night-kill pointing to her sandwiched between them - but isn't it all a bit obvious? And I've got to admit that her last minute defense of Lottie, at a time when it looked like she'd most likely be lynched, is a point in her favour.

I'd like Nessa to explain her vote for Rikae a bit more, myself.

Also, I think it's ironic that it's being considered that Nessa and I are packmates, when the first thing people really started suspecting me for was my criticism of her "numbers" post.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Mänwe

I don't see how some of the most talkative ones can be considered more helpful due to the possibility that every word they say is designed to mislead or indeed because they write so long a post people don't want to read it

I don't mean "helpful" in the sense of actually actively doing things to help, although, of course, the louder people tend to do more of that as well, but "helpful" because we actually have something to go on. As you said, quiet people leave a greater possibility for judgment error. If I'm going to be left alive as one of three on the last Day (as seems to happen to me a lot, but I mean this in the case of anyone), I don't want to be left with two quiet players to choose between! I want plenty of evidence through which to sift, and we're all better off on any day when we have that.

If' you're going to start "TLDNR"ing, we might as well just quit. It defeats the whole purpose of WW.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Initially, I was waiting around to see if I would get any more votes, and vote to save myself accordingly. The "Legate 180" referred to my sudden opinion change.

Maybe I missed something. Is "Legate 180" a common expression these days?

Originally Posted by Pitch

Er, pardon? You think Nessa's defense of Lottie was genuine, and this prompts you to vote the one she defended? Does not compute.

My first thought on this was "good catch", and my second thought was "wait a minute. Nessa could very well genuinely defend someone and be totally wrong about them."

If I were a Pitchwolf, I'd back off Nessa now, too, if she were innocent.

Edit: X'd with Zil.

[Rikae]

I guess this is the defense of Lottie that rang with such sincerity:

Originally Posted by Nessa

But, Lottie, I don't understand. It just seems like a convenient bandwagon.

*shrug* I don't really see it. It makes sense for a wolf to proclaim the innocence of an ordo about to be lynched. Now, if she was aware that her fate was in Inzil's hands, that would be extremely selfless, weirdly so even for an innocent, but if I recall correctly, there were a few non-voters.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Maybe I missed something. Is "Legate 180" a common expression these days?

More or less, yes.

I think I was in the game myself and it had to do something with Legate changing his opinion into the opposite.. and there were some drastic consequences if I recall it right.

Someone else with better memory might be able to fill you up.

But yes, I'd say it means changing your view on some issue to the opposite nowadays...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Maybe I missed something. Is "Legate 180" a common expression these days?

As a matter of fact, it's in the official glossary.

Originally Posted by Rikae

My first thought on this was "good catch", and my second thought was "wait a minute. Nessa could very well genuinely defend someone and be totally wrong about them."

Which is how I saw it.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I guess this is the defense of Lottie that rang with such sincerity:


*shrug* I don't really see it. It makes sense for a wolf to proclaim the innocence of an ordo about to be lynched. Now, if she was aware that her fate was in Inzil's hands, that would be extremely selfless, weirdly so even for an innocent, but if I recall correctly, there were a few non-voters.

Well, I don't claim that it was a smart move on my part.

[Macalaure]

Lommy was after Inzil quite a bit, but I don't think in a way that looks seerish. Other than that, her suspicions are rather wide-spread (#272). Nessa, Skip, e_d, and Wilwa are her other main suspects, quite a few of which gathered votes yesterDay. Unless Lommy was very correct and the wolves wanted her out of the way, I think this points the other way: we were completely off and the wolves wanted us to remain off. Lommy will later back off Nessa slightly.

There were a few people who were starting to suspect Valier, so this kill is interesting. Valier thinks the wolves might be framing Inzil and later she starts suspecting Skip. In her list, she suspects Pitch, Inzil, Boro, Legate to varying degrees. Prime suspect is Skip, who she votes. I don't think her suspicion of Skip seems seer-ish either. There aren't any very strong cases except Skip, so a kill with the idea of leaving only one wrong trail seems possible.

Two people who suspected Skip more or less strongly are dead. I find it hard to believe that the wolves would be so obvious in killing off dangerous villagers. I mean, if you have two kills, would you dare to get rid of two who suspect one particular wolf at once? I would think that's too obvious.

Both also suspected Inzil. Either the wolves really enjoy torturing Inzil, or Inzil is one heck of a cocky wolf, or the wolves identified Inzil as the cobbler and are putting him to work accordingly.

Of course, it's highly unlikely that there wasn't a wolf or two in Lommy's and Valier's rather long lists of suspects, but I can't tell who it might have been.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Okay, to explain my suspicion of Rikae, I was very weirded out by how convenient it would be for a wolf for so much conversation to come of her post about Pitch. And most of it was about him, as well, taking the blame far away from her innocent-seeming phrasing.

But after a few Days have passed, and more substantial information is appearing...

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Okay, how should I put this: I am not that sad about the two deaths toNight, because it has eliminated two people I have been rather unsure about. Which sort of clears the field.

This really gives me a strange feeling. That's an odd thing to say after losing the Hunter and two ordos in one go.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Okay, to explain my suspicion of Rikae, I was very weirded out by how convenient it would be for a wolf for so much conversation to come of her post about Pitch. And most of it was about him, as well, taking the blame far away from her innocent-seeming phrasing.

I'm a decent player, but I don't actually have the ability to control the whole village. That conversation about/suspicion of Pitch was just what had me placing him in a slightly more innocent category (looked like wolves were after him).

Originally Posted by Nessa

This really gives me a strange feeling. That's an odd thing to say after losing the Hunter and two ordos in one go.

You know, on the one hand, it looks like something no wolf would dare say. And, on the other hand, it looks like something a wolf would say, knowing no wolf would be expected to dare.

[Rikae]

You know what's funny? I suspect everyone else that has posted so far (and where is everyone else? We're three hours in!) except Mac.
Perhaps I should suspect him as well.

Mac, why are you sitting over there looking so suspicious? Oh yeah, the goatee. Explain it!

There, my obligatory wolf on wolf... er, I mean...

[Mänwe]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I don't mean "helpful" in the sense of actually actively doing things to help, although, of course, the louder people tend to do more of that as well, but "helpful" because we actually have something to go on...If I'm going to be left alive as one of three on the last Day (as seems to happen to me a lot, but I mean this in the case of anyone), I don't want to be left with two quiet players to choose between! I want plenty of evidence through which to sift, and we're all better off on any day when we have that.

Point noted.

Now, i'm off to sleep before work tomorrow.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Rikae

You know what's funny? I suspect everyone else that has posted so far (and where is everyone else? We're three hours in!) except Mac.
Perhaps I should suspect him as well.

Mac, why are you sitting over there looking so suspicious? Oh yeah, the goatee. Explain it!

There, my obligatory wolf on wolf... er, I mean...

Perhaps everyone has weekendy things to attend to? I myself am more able to post, precisely because it is the weekend.

Goatees are only incriminating on females, not so sure about Mac.

[Rikae]

Now you did it. Now no one wants to post because it will reveal them as losers with nothing to do on the weekend!

[Cailín]

Just some quick notes because the hour is late here and I should go to sleep.

I am sorry Lommy was killed. I had her down as an innocent from Day 1, and I know most people trusted her. I'll have a look at her posts but think she was a target simply because of that.

Valier however... I think the wolves might have seen a potential Seer in her. She's always been very good at uncovering wolves and her suspicion of Skip was random enough (as in, she did not give any empirical evidence or analysis and she was the only one really singling him out as a wolf). I don't think we should disregard that - even if she did not dream of him, I would not ignore InnocentValier's suspicions. Definitely will be looking at Skip toDay.

Don't we have a team, after all, which is made only out of them? (Something like Greenie-Mänwe-LRH-Cailín/Nessa/BG or something... would actually make a lot of sense, especially in relation to the first Night awkward kills.

As if. When I am a wolf I don't kill awkwardly. I kill with poise, always.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Now you did it. Now no one wants to post because it will reveal them as losers with nothing to do on the weekend!

Or everyone went to Medieval Times without us.

Ouch. That hurt just to think about. Everyone meeting knights without me?

Originally Posted by Cailín

When I am a wolf I don't kill awkwardly. I kill with poise, always.

The Night kills have all been very strangely-placed; everyone is either no-trace, tied to someone with a high profile case going on, or overtly conspicuous.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I would just like to point out that a nearly-indecent amount of discussion this game has been about things that 'just HAVE to be too obvious for a wolf to do'. I'm not sure what it means, but I felt it needed to be pointed out.

Back later.

[Macalaure]

I need to clear my head about him.

Pitchwife

Day 1

#15

Well, the wolves obviously know more than we do, but the cobbler not so much, as of now - so xe will indeed probably want to make xyrself known to the pack in time.

Hint to the cobbler?

Yep, the double Night-Kill sucks for us, and getting rid of it is imperative. I'm not sure if I'd like to risk the Seer for it - as long as the Ranger is still alive, maybe it's worth it.

Very carefully pushing the idea that the seer should reveal after the first dreamt wolf.

#22 - defends Cailín's early vote.

#27 - asks Sally and Rikae regarding their suspicion, understandably.

Early Day1 in general - much role/rule talk, but a few actual points, so that's good - his tone is oddly relaxed though, but maybe that's just him. He looks pretty well for the rest of the day until voting time

He clears his mind in #110, but then the next few posts are just chat, like he's killing time for an opportune moment to cast the vote. (1h time between #110 and his vote in #132, with a few meaningless posts in between.) Usually an innocent would use the time to make up their mind some more.

His vote makes sense considering what he said before (with me and e_d in the running other than Nessa), but why the unproductive waiting period?


Day 2

Starts out using Ozban's death to go after Nessa more (all of #183). This looks like it could have been planned. His second post is about Kath, but he finds nothing of note. Goes after Inzil a bit.

#189 implies that he thinks the Sally-waggon was innocently fueled, which is odd, since it overtook the waggon he himself fueled. It's uncommon to clear an opposing bandwaggon of suspicion, especially without much reasons. Attempt not to ruffle innocent feathers?

#262 - his q&a for me looks innocent.

#275

I still don't think Zil looks particularly wolvish (and I think suspecting him because his first post was made too quickly is rather flimsy)

This might be nitpicky, but I don't like the "still" here. I understand why one might step away from Inzil based on flimsy reasons, but he sounds defensive here, without any reason.

Inzil was the only person other than Nessa he brought forth any reasons against. This fits with the "not ruffling innocent feathers". He predictably votes for Nessa again.


Day 3

#333 today he backs away from Nessa and instead goes after Inzil again. Not much variation.


I can't condemn him - there are too many stretches where he looks rather innocent. However, I think there are some points which paint a dark picture.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Two people who suspected Skip more or less strongly are dead. I find it hard to believe that the wolves would be so obvious in killing off dangerous villagers. I mean, if you have two kills, would you dare to get rid of two who suspect one particular wolf at once? I would think that's too obvious.

Unless Skip feared he has been dreamed of, and with double the chances of killing the seer, went for two people who suspected him.

More on that.

[Rikae]

Same goes for Inzil, as I mentioned.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Same goes for Inzil, as I mentioned.

The thing with Inzil's clear 180 flip is it's an extremely obvious tip-off. I don't know if the wolves would stick out their neck that far to save another, even with the 2-kill incentive, since that basically condemns both of them.

Unless, with his packmate Nessa being the one in danger, and in order to preserve the 2-kills saved her, and then went after two people who suspected him, fearing the seer had dreamed of him already?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Mänwe

Quieter folk are the easiest to tarnish with the same brush and leave the greater possibility for a judgement error on behalf of their would be jurors. Although I would concede the more quiet the less likely you are to say something that'll give you away. But this reminds me of something Rikae mentioned that irked me a little

I don't see how some of the most talkative ones can be considered more helpful due to the possibility that every word they say is designed to mislead or indeed because they write so long a post people don't want to read it

Quiet can't be so black or white, for in those names that Legate mentioned there are those who have made the odd post, and those that have popped in to vote; two very different quiet "strategies" if you will...elronds_daughter being case in point with two very wild votes.

Also, Legate

May I ask you to clarify this point about Greenie not wanting to vote Oz or Kath?

Maybe more questions ought to be asked of the two extremes, those who just pop into vote and those who do the most talking..

Okay, since I am answering your question, first a comment also to the first part - of course I am not putting all the quiet ones into the same cathegory, and I in fact usually don't make such generalising suspicions, but this was just a thought: and for this time, of all, it would make sense. Because of the awkward kills, indeed. So I am actually considering such possibility, or at least, thinking that the "quiet" ones might be the key. Anything is possible.

And as for the thing about Greenie not killing Oz and Kath: I am not 100% sure (well, not by far! more like 50%, but still), I believe Greenie might have raised some objections to Ozzy being killed so early on, given that they haven't been playing together much, and this is Ozzy's second game. It is slightly meta-reasoning, and I am not giving it that much weight, like I said, but if the kills were made completely randomly (as it seems to me - no real Seer-reasoning, etc.), I could imagine she would have chosen somebody else for a random first kill. Similarly with Kath, I could imagine her wanting to play with her for longer time than just one Day, if possible. Of course, like I have already said before about similar subject, one Wolf's choices can be overriden by packmates etc., but still, it is a factor: usually, if one Wolf says: "No, I would prefer not to kill XY", then others usually follow it, unless they have really good and really important reasons to do it.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I think I was in the game myself and it had to do something with Legate changing his opinion into the opposite.. and there were some drastic consequences if I recall it right.

Someone else with better memory might be able to fill you up.

Indeed, drastic consequences; just to clarify it, I was innocent and ended up lynched after being accused of unexplainably changing my opinions.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Two people who suspected Skip more or less strongly are dead. I find it hard to believe that the wolves would be so obvious in killing off dangerous villagers. I mean, if you have two kills, would you dare to get rid of two who suspect one particular wolf at once? I would think that's too obvious.

I agree with that. I am really wondering what kind of Wolves we have. What makes the most sense would be WWs who are quite logical and are trying to lead us away by planting fake baits (Nessa, Zil...) in front of us: but in that case, who would that be?

This is most puzzling, as basically most my suspects turn somewhat less likely to be actually Wolves. Skip would now make a lot less sense. There is still Rikae or Boro. I am just... puzzled.

And for that matter, I would really most likely drop Zil for toDay. Let's also not forget what he himself had said, that he was the likely target for a Seer dream after what he has done. Maybe we should not worry about that.

Originally Posted by Cailín

As if. When I am a wolf I don't kill awkwardly. I kill with poise, always.

Well, haven't played with you much, so I cannot say how would you kill, but in any case, you haven't been playing recently, which means that you would not probably make any difference between killing Ozban was here just in his second game and others who haven't likely been around when you have last played (quite several people, I'd imagine).

Originally Posted by Boromir88

The thing with Inzil's clear 180 flip is it's an extremely obvious tip-off. I don't know if the wolves would stick out their neck that far to save another, even with the 2-kill incentive, since that basically condemns both of them.

Unless, with his packmate Nessa being the one in danger, and in order to preserve the 2-kills saved her, and then went after two people who suspected him, fearing the seer had dreamed of him already?

If the latter was the case, we are living inside a horror. *dreads* I mean, if the WWs are already for two Nights doing nothing more than worrying about that they have been basically all caught this far and it is only a matter of time before they are lynched one by one, and yet still we in fact don't lynch either of them this far, it must be a rather pleasing picture for them.

But in general, I agree with the preceding statement - that is, it indeed condemns both of them, and it would mean at most one more Day of life - unless they indeed counted it being so obvious that we would not dare to count it as a Wolf-save. A true double-bluff.

[A Little Green]

Inzil looks bad. I don't know if the wolves would really take so much pains to frame a single innocent. To state the obvious, he is either

a) a misguided innocent who honestly made a mistake at the end of yesterDay. Possible, I suppose. However, the timing of his vote is as last minute as can be, it looks calculated. The resigned attitude toDay doesn't look innocent to me, either. We need to catch a wolf, and if he is innocent he should speak out for himself so we don't make the wrong choice.

b) a wolf. If Inzil is a wolf, it would point to Nessa being one too, otherwise he wouldn't have bothered. It would have been a pretty extreme move for a wolf though, since in saving one wolf he would have two of them highly suspected the next Day. Is the two kills per Night advantage that important to them? Or do we have an insanely bold pack who decided to sacrifice half of them to cause havoc and let the other half slip by unnoticed? No, it wouldn't make sense unless Inzil believed himself already seer-dreamed, but the Night's kills speak against that - neither Valier nor Lommy seemed like Seers who had dreamed Inzilwolf. Or was he just otherwise certain he and Nessa were going to be suspected the next Day anyway?

c) a cobbler. This is actually beginning to look like the most sensible option to me. A cobbler would be ready to make a drastic move to save a believed wolf from the gallows - or even, come to think of it, an innocent, thus misleading the village royally. His "kill me if you like, but you're wasting your time" -attitude looks quite cobblerish, too. If I have the time I might go through Inzil's early posts to see if there is anything resembling a cobbler hint. His previous behaviour struck me more wolvish than cobblerish though.

Gah. Enough about Inzil, there are sixteen other people to look at. Well, fifteen. For example, I haven't seen any talk at all about the Lottie-wagon. What, exactly, were the arguments for lynching her?

Originally Posted by Legate

Nonetheless, I think it is about time for us to get a Wolf. The village is getting smaller, too small for four Wolves AND two kills per Night. Also, the fact that even the Cobbler is still around makes me rather nervous.

So... what about those of my suspects, then, who are still alive. Skip, Boro, Rikae? Nessa, who escaped the gallows yesterDay, and what about again Zil, her gallant savior? And who knows about Pitchwife? Or what about all the quieter folk? Don't we have a team, after all, which is made only out of them? (Something like Greenie-Mänwe-LRH-Cailín/Nessa/BG or something... would actually make a lot of sense, especially in relation to the first Night awkward kills. Maybe if I scratch Greenie from that and make it one of the five, it would make the most sense, as there is a slight chance Greenie would not like to kill Ozban or Kath.)

I'm not fond of Legate's tone here. The first paragraph is pessimistic, which is doubtlessly how the wolves want us to feel. The second is the classic wishy-washy Legate, he pretty much says that everyone could be a wolf actually, without being definite about anyone. And, like Cailín, I don't quite approve of him saying that us as wolves would account for awkward kills!


EDIT: ouch, x-ed with Legate's novel!

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Legate

And as for the thing about Greenie not killing Oz and Kath: I am not 100% sure (well, not by far! more like 50%, but still), I believe Greenie might have raised some objections to Ozzy being killed so early on, given that they haven't been playing together much, and this is Ozzy's second game. It is slightly meta-reasoning, and I am not giving it that much weight, like I said, but if the kills were made completely randomly (as it seems to me - no real Seer-reasoning, etc.), I could imagine she would have chosen somebody else for a random first kill. Similarly with Kath, I could imagine her wanting to play with her for longer time than just one Day, if possible. Of course, like I have already said before about similar subject, one Wolf's choices can be overriden by packmates etc., but still, it is a factor: usually, if one Wolf says: "No, I would prefer not to kill XY", then others usually follow it, unless they have really good and really important reasons to do it.

I'm not sure how relevant this is but there's a point I want to make. For the first thing, yes, a wolf-me probably wouldn't have killed Ozzy that early since it was only his second game and he plays rather seldom, unless of course I suspected him to be the Seer. As for Kath though, I love her, but regardless of my role I don't make choices in WW based on who are my friends in RL. I don't think that's fair. (It's the same thing as why I get annoyed if people use reasons like "I like him/her, therefore I won't vote them" even early in the game. It's wolves we're hunting, not people who aren't our special friends.) Sorry, out of proportion rant. This is just a topic I feel rather strongly about.

[A Little Green]

I will probably have to vote really early toDay, maybe something like three or four hours from now. I might be back before DL but since I can't be sure I rather vote early to be on the safe side. I can then use my retraction if I return in time and if I consider it necessary. I'd like to have a look at Eomer, Elra, Wilwa and Cailín at least, I'm not sure if I have time for all of that. They are not necessarily submarines, but they are people I have no opinion of, and people that are not really talked about much.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Back with some general thoughts...

This far, as I said, I'd be suspicious of Rikae, but be it not for her retraction yesterDay. Since Lottie is innocent, it is somewhat hard to imagine Wolf to retract like this.

I went through Greenie's posts now too and they also look more innocent-ish to me than not.

I might really want to focus on and possibly vote for some of the "quiet ones" toDay. But that means LRH (whose vote yesterDay was rather suspiciously placed, at least, and question is about the first Day, as we don't know about Pitch's guilt or innocence) BG, possibly Mänwe (though I am careful about suspecting him too easily, after the last fiasco I remember from when playing with him, it was all too easy to lynch him). I am going to focus on them a bit.

I also should try to take once again a new, "from-scratch", objective look at Nessa...

I don't want to lynch Zil just now. Only if I don't come up with anything better.

Also wondering if I should start looking at Shasta more closely. He's been slipping under my radar quite interestingly enough.

Will be around or back later...

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Boro

Unless Skip feared he has been dreamed of, and with double the chances of killing the seer, went for two people who suspected him.

But you don't just fear to be dreamed of, you usually suspect one particular person to have dreamed of you (by their behaviour towards you) and kill that one. A lone wolf might get extremely nervous and behave like that, but with three comrades to keep him in check? This would only make sense if the wolves decided to throw Skip under the bus, subtly, but with the second kill tied to the fourth wolf, that's nonsense.

Originally Posted by Legate

I agree with that. I am really wondering what kind of Wolves we have. What makes the most sense would be WWs who are quite logical and are trying to lead us away by planting fake baits (Nessa, Zil...) in front of us: but in that case, who would that be?

Maybe we need to be logical as well.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Legate

I might really want to focus on and possibly vote for some of the "quiet ones" toDay.

I don't mean to imply that quiet players can't be logical, but doesn't what I quoted from you up there suggest that there are at least two seasoned loud ones in the pack?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Inzil

Which is how I saw it.

So you thought Nessa was wrong about Lottie - whom you didn't particularly want to lynch either?

As I said Lommy's death doesn't come as a surprise - but according to my notes, nobody thought Valier was innocent. I'm wondering if they went for her as a potential seer - or if their real target was Lommy as a potential seer and they threw in Valier just to confuse us. I don't like the situation too much: the kills seem to implicate certain people who have been suspected anyway, but we can't tell if they are actually wolves or if the wolves just want us to believe so, and we never lynch any of them.

Originally Posted by Green

a wolf. If Inzil is a wolf, it would point to Nessa being one too, otherwise he wouldn't have bothered.

Actually it would be very convenient for a wolf to frame an innocent like that, and I wouldn't put it past Zil. He's been under a lot of suspicion and knew he's probably going down sooner or later.
And even if they're both wolves, I think it would have been worth it to save her. As far as I recall, neither of them had been attacking the other strongly, so giving the decisive vote wouldn't necessarily have cleaned them. And if two wolves are suspected heavily, their actions are often damage control rather than trying to wriggle out of the noose.

Originally Posted by Green

And, like Cailín, I don't quite approve of him saying that us as wolves would account for awkward kills!

I misread this as "I don't quite approve of him saying that us wolves would account for awkward kills!" You should've seen my face.

By the way, if we don't get any wolves (or ranger saves), it will be 5-6 the day after tomorrow.