WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

He said here he was really hunting Legate.

Ahhh. I hadn't noticed that.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Wilwa, I understand what you are saying and find you genuine, but I still believe that I made the right decision in revealing.

Well.....no, I don't think you did. Sorry, but I don't. And I don't trust you.

And I believe you just slipped up. Here:

Originally Posted by Skip

One thing you keep ignoring too is that if I die (whether lynched or night-killed) and make the mistake of hunting an innocent (and gawd, haven't I been making mistakes!) the wolves win there and then.

Cause if the Hunter gets Night killed while Hunting an innocent, only the Hunter dies.

So yeah. Definitely don't believe you now buddy.

[wilwarin538]

*headdesk*

Ignore that last part, I just realised what he actually meant there, and it's not what I thought. Sorry Skip.

But I still don't trust you.

[skip spence]

Yeah, I was just about to point that out, Wilwa.

To Whom It May Concern:

Don't be hasty now, please! We can ill afford another mistake...


And wouldn't it be fab to turn this thing around!

Bedtime for me now, but should be able to return around 6-7 CET

[Nogrod]

Okay... and interesting. I've always thought deep emotionally written regrets more or less fishy but this self-bashing going on is just weird!


Anyway. How about we made a deal toDay, that everyone would pick at least one person who is flying under her/his radar? And then we'd do some analysing. I mean we have as a whole suspected harder only a few people (and most of them are now dead) and what have we got? So I think we need to spread the suspicions to include more people.

I don't say that means Lottie and Skip - the only two left who have been heavily suspected and voted for - are innocents just because they have been suspected and no baddies are dead.

If we'd had to vote right now, I'd probably vote for Lottie as she still seems the most suspicious of you (and I tend to trust Skip's revealment unless someone shows me a motive for the baddies to try that out). But even if I was right, only concentrating on Lottie and Skip we let the other two to smirk and smile in the background - or in the foreground, whatever: with no fear of getting caught.

So everyone promises to pick at least one person they haven't looked more closely as yet?

*going to check the voting now*

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So everyone promises to pick at least one person they haven't looked more closely as yet?

Either you or Boro. You've been posting a ton and all, but you two seem to slip past into "dunno" categories.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Either you or Boro. You've been posting a ton and all, but you two seem to slip past into "dunno" categories.

Good. Others? Any picks? I have no preference myself as whom to pick as it feels like most of you have went under my radar.

And surely we don't need to try and organise this in a way that everyone really gets a task - and no overlapping allowed - and will report on certain hour or anything.

I mainly wished people started also looking elsewhere they have done thus far - and do something about it.


On another note... why do you guys always vote saying "for previously stated reasons" - it takes a maddening amount of time to go back for pages there and actually find them...

(Okay, honestly I know, it's in a hurry people vote at last minutes, but it still is a task to get them. But I should be readu shortly.)

[Nogrod]

Here's the voting from yesterDay. I have added a few comments there but my main comments will come in a separate post.

about 12 hours before DL
Lottie -> Skip

Originally Posted by Lottie

Because his tone feels off, his votes thus far have been rather poor (basically cementing Shasta at four votes and introducing Legate when there hadn't been much suspicion of him and there really was no chance of lynching him at all) and because I don't have any stronger suspicions.

about 3 hours before DL
Boro -> Eönwë

Originally Posted by Boro

I know it's kind of crappy to do this, but I'm going to gone for the rest of the day. Those last minute, right before the DL posts are just confusing me and impossible to read before the DL is up. Also, his voting has been suspect with abstaining from voting on Day 1. Although, understandable because at that point no vote would have mattered. But then then Day 2's vote for Lottie which he cryptically said he'd explain today. I was hoping he'd be on sooner to explain it this time, but appears not.

from this on only the minutes before DL in front of the votes

0:30
Nerwen -> Skip 2
Dead innocent…

The last minute's frenzy begins...

0:06
Green -> Skip 3
A case built up in post #255 (page 7)
*someone please remind me how to make links to individual posts!*

0:06
Ozban -> Legate

Originally Posted by Ozban

I really like Skip's posts analyzing Legate. And I tend to vote for him today. First he openly doubts Pitch's furryness. And than he washes his hands, by voting Lottie.
Same he did the day before. He made his case against her, never wavered (that itself looks weird, considering lack of any evidence). Truth is, that his second Lottie-vote might have been just a rushed, it was first vote on second lynch, and Leg was going off, but it more likely was calculated move, because Pitch's lynching was unavoidable, and it's much better-looking this way than, propeling secong wagon in a row.

0:03
Skip -> Legate 2

Originally Posted by Skip

I guess I'd have to go with Legate

(survival reasons?)
There is the huge Legalysis on posts #229 & #230 (page 6). The outcome of it seemed to boil down on this:

Originally Posted by Skip

Here we go, it's the Shasta-Lottie-Pitch thing once again. So far everything coming out of that triad has been very unfortunate for us Elves, the first two turning out to be a Seer and an ordo. Wouldn't it be horrible if we went on to lynch Lottie and she too turned out innocent!?

Hm. If we lynch Legate and he is a wolf, chances are Lottie is innocent... Lynching Lottie would say little about Legate's role if she's innocent but if she's a wolf that would speak in favour of Legate. Actually I feel a little bit better about Legate after reviewing Day 2, although I'm still worried about him... Oh man this is tough!

0:01
wilwa -> Legate 3

Originally Posted by wilwa

I don't like. He's very wishy-washy, seems to go back in forth with his opinions, and just maybe wants to seem more useful then he is and wants to keep everyone happy. I'm leaning that he could be the Cobbler, but I'm suspicious enough of him to vote him.

0:01
Nog -> Lottie

Originally Posted by me

her explanation that she tried to pull out a seer-impression on D1 looks pretty dubious. Also her vote yesterDay for Pitchie while first driving for other solutions - and in the votepost suspecting Skip the most...

But also the fact that Legate suggested voting Lottie and I wanted to see competition with the voting - not knowing wilwa had voted for Leg...

0:01
Legate -> Skip 4
Dead innocent’s self-preservation

Originally Posted by Leg

Just in case somebody wanted to vote ME still. I guess the lottie-plan should've started a bit earlier... again we are at bandwagon...

0:00
Eönwë -> Lottie 2

Originally Posted by Steve

Definitely not liking Lottie. Just reread Day 1.On her second post she suddenly (jokingly?) suspects Shasta, and then suddenly gets more serious about it in her next post, with the very wolvish "here is some evidence for why he could be evil, but I'm probably wrong, but still, look at this evidence" sort of approach. The classic trying-to-start-other-people-suspecting-someone tactic. And then votes him after a few posts, with not much more reasoning.

0:00
Inzil -> Legate 4

Originally Posted by Zil

A lot to digest in a short period of time. My apologies.

A self-preservation vote?

[wilwarin538]

I read through yesterDay again since I had spent most of the little time I had on looking over the previous two days, and this stood out to me, I don't know why I didn't notice it before (he's talking about myself in this post)

Originally Posted by Boromir88

But I agreed with her about Pitch yesterday, and despite what Nog said earlier today, she never wavered. A wolf could push for the easy lynch, but I thought of her yesterday as more cobbler than anything else. I would have expected the cobbler to waver and be unsure on how to deal with Pitch.

Why it doesn't make sense: he says I never wavered about Pitch, then says I looked more cobblerish, and then says he'd expect the cobbler to waver. Hmm?

Anyway, there are many that I have no opinion about for one reason or another: Inzil, Steve, Greenie. I still get good vibes from Ozzy....and Boro, Nog and Lottie just greatly worry me. And I think Skip is the Cobbler, cause I don't trust his reveal, but I won't be voting him cause I want to get a wolf.

Basically I have no idea and I won't be around much tomorrow, I'll probably even need to vote really early, and that's bugging me. I don't have time to look more closely, so I'll likely base my vote on the analyses I did on everything yesterDay and then whatever happens today.

x'ed with Noggins

[Nogrod]

A few comments on the voting.

Lottie - Nothing stands out from there, although most of us have really poor voting records so to single out Skip for it... Also - and there might be a perfectly reasonable answer to this - it is interesting that Lottie seems to vote early but can be around on the Daybreak... so are you avoiding the last minute voting or is it just the scheduals?

Boro says himself his vote is kind of crappy, but actually I understand it quite well. If you have no good suspects and no time why not go for a quiet enigma? ToDay it's probably different because we can't afford blind-lynchings and I think Steve has talked a bit more so maybe he could be read now? On the other hand - if Lottie and / or Skip were his packmates that would have been quite a nice idea to try and open up that kind of waggon earlyish (I mean I actually thought of taking on that yesterDay - but in the end it seemed we had better candidates under votes).

Greenie clearly made an effort to find the wolf or to back her suspicion in public. The question is, which one was she doing?

Ozban is a curios one. His voting looks quite so understandable, but somehow I feel that not everything is quite right there. When voting he said he had "repeated his reasons several times" but the only thing I found from yesterDay was him agreeing on Skip's thoughts on Leg. And his first post toDay about how he had started thinking Leg better and actually suspecting Skip (deep in his mind but not talking of it to us) is just so confusing...

Now it all might be genuine. I do see that possibility. But would also fit with a Wolfban who needed to talk himself out from the suspicions as an innocent-killer. And even if I dislike bringing up this kind of points as I do think every newbie to the game should be taken in as himself and what he says, it kind of smells like someone had adviced him last Night (like in the previous Nights?). It is - as he says - quite a "Legate 180" he performs there from the cool Legate lyncher with his many times stated reasons to this person who "almost knew" he was innocent - and who actually suspected the other guy near the gallows who survived - but still failed to act on that. Hard to say.

Skip's vote is easy to see as a self-preservation measure. Both wolves and innocents like to survive - and I still think he's the hunter.

Wilwa's vote basically doesn't raise eyebrows: she had brought forwards this massive analysis and acted probably on that (although she really didn't give us others a chance to read the conclusion-part of it posting the mega-post two minutes before the DL ). I'm not going to go through those analysis right now (it's way too late), but I do think there is a structural problem with ner nice point system (if she's innocent; it is a meant failure if she's a wolf); as I skimmed through her analysis of D1 yesterDay I saw that I got a fair amount of minuses from just having a different opinion in an issue of principle (I got fex. two minuses for saying twice that the wolves in general tend to want to please people and be nice, to rub them the right way!). So are you sure about your system wilwa - or are you doing something completely different with it?

My vote... okay I'm not the one to comment on that in this way. But therefore I left a short reasoning in the actual vote-post.

Legate: a dead innocent's self-preservation vote.

Eönwë seems to come in late and vote as the last or second last. On D1 I thought it was okay and understandable but I'm beginning to get more and more suspicious. Why vote on the basis of D1 on D3? So a lazy ordo or a cynical wolf?

Zil's vote seems to have been a self-preservation vote as well. As such it doesn't tell one of his affinities though.


Boro asked earlier how the Le Wagon happened. I can give you at least a partial explanation: two out of four votes to Leg were self-preservation votes...


NB. These speculations concern only the voting yesterDay. I need to try and look how they fit the larger picture later toDay. But now bedtime is reaching me.


EDIT: X'd with wilwa... and what, did I spent over an hour on that? Uh-oh.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by wilwa

Why it doesn't make sense: he says I never wavered about Pitch, then says I looked more cobblerish, and then says he'd expect the cobbler to waver. Hmm?

Are you feeling ok? Because this is now the second reading error you've made in a short time. What you quote I said yesterday. So when I said yesterday "I thought of her yesterday as more cobbler than anything else" I was talking about what I said the day before about your self-vote looking cobblerish. However, yesterday I would have expected the cobbler to waver about Pitch, which you didn't do. Meaning, the day yesterday I previously thought you were the cobbler for your vote, but yesterday I know longer felt you were because you never wavered about Pitch. Long story short, I haven't thought you were wolf, either cobbler or innocent, and since you didn't do what I expected a cobbler to do yesterday, what does that leave?

I'm beginning to change that "I haven't thought of you as a wolf" though, because you're making some unusual errors here. Getting anxious at seeing a victory within your grasp, are ye?

So, for your idea Nogrod. I think it's good. I shall check wilwa and Eonwe. Most likely that'll come sometime in the afternoon, since I've gotta be up early and will be heading to rest earlier than usual.

I also think no one's done a good hard look at Greenie, if I have time I shall try, she hasn't posted a great amount due to being rushed, so shouldn't be a problem. Anyone think they can do a fair analysis of Lottie? I had read through Day 1 again, basically everything she said came off evil looking and I'm afraid when I continue onto Day 2 and Day 3 that will block my more sensible judgement. So, many times we've left a wolf who was almost lynched skate on through for the rest of the game. On the other hand, I need not get carried away and go completely panicky and unhinged when in these do or die situations. It tends to cause more trouble than good.

On that note, that makes me think too that Nog's idea is a very good one. Particularly picking someone who's been submarining for you, because if you focus on the person you are extremely suspicious of this could cloud our rationality and you start letting high emotions steer a lynch...not what we need today.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

it is interesting that Lottie seems to vote early but can be around on the Daybreak... so are you avoiding the last minute voting or is it just the scheduals?

Scheduals - DL is noon my time. My church usually goes until one (counting chatting afterwards) so I couldn't make it yesterDay. Wednesday and Thursday are also bad (Thursday more so). And I actually like last-minute voting better than early voting by quite a large margin.

EDIT: x'd with Boro

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Are you feeling ok? Because this is now the second reading error you've made in a short time. What you quote I said yesterday. So when I said yesterday "I thought of her yesterday as more cobbler than anything else" I was talking about what I said the day before about your self-vote looking cobblerish. However, yesterday I would have expected the cobbler to waver about Pitch, which you didn't do. Meaning, the day yesterday I previously thought you were the cobbler for your vote, but yesterday I know longer felt you were because you never wavered about Pitch. Long story short, I haven't thought you were wolf, either cobbler or innocent, and since you didn't do what I expected a cobbler to do yesterday, what does that leave?

I'm beginning to change that "I haven't thought of you as a wolf" though, because you're making some unusual errors here. Getting anxious at seeing a victory within your grasp, are ye?

Now that makes sense, I brought that quote forward because the way it was worded was confusing, and I couldn't figure out what you were trying to say. It just seemed to go against itself. But I get it now.

And yeah I am a bit anxious, but not for that reason (victory for my side seems quite out of grasp at the moment). I'm anxious because of Skip's unusual reveal, the reason for which doesn't make sense to me since the Hunter is our only Gifted left, our 'secret weapon', and revealing renders them useless, and no one else seems very concerned about that, in fact two players that I consider to be two of the smartest are all fine and dandy and believe him no problem, think that if he is lying the real Hunter should just play into his little trap and hand over our only advantage. This greatly concerns me.

Gah, I need to sleep, I'm starting to get snippy. I'll try to be on as much as I can tomorrow, but that sadly won't be a lot (school and other such nonsense).

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Well.....no, I don't think you did. Sorry, but I don't. And I don't trust you.

Either way you try to break it down, we don't have the luxury to use the hunter to his greatest strength because of the situation we're in.

Earlier, yes, a revealed hunter means he most likely can't use his gift because the wolves would be wary to attack the known hunter. But today we need known innocents to make it to tomorrow. And even if we lynch a wolf today we're still going to be behind the 8-ball. The wolves will be in a jam to either keep the known hunter around or risk killing him at night. So, the notion that a revealed hunter is completely useless is a terrible one.

I revealed as the hunter in on of Nogrod's villages and kept daring them to kill me each night. They wouldn't, so they kept around a known innocent day after day, and then missed the opportunity to kill me when I didn't have a wolf picked. This notion that if Skip's the hunter he made a bad decision is completely false. In the best situations, yes we'd want the hunter to stay hidden, get picked by the wolves and take one down. We no longer have this luxury and a known hunter is still useful in giving us an innocent, as well as someone the wolves will be hardpressed to take the risk in killing. Because if we manage to kill a wolf today, we still got a mighty climb and if the wolves want to keep the known hunter around to help during the day, that still a bigger benefit to us than them.

I said why I understood his reasons and how it makes sense considering his actions so far. I'm going to trust that unless any one says they're the hunter. You think this makes him the cobbler. Do his actions at the lynch yesterday look Cobblerish? Would a cobbler really fight that hard to stay alive and be that defensive throughout when a cobbler who doesn't know who the wolves are, basic purpose would be to die at some point?

Edit: crossed with wilwa. Me need sleepy too, I've exhausted this debate over the hunter role. Ideally, yeah we'd want to keep the hunter unknown, but I firmly believe with how things have played out in this situation, a known hunter (despite now giving up his greatest gift) is still a larger benefit to us today, and in the following days, than to the wolves. I'll say no more about the best uses of roles.

[wilwarin538]

Basically, from what I can tell, if we get it wrong today our best chance is for the Hunter to get chosen by the wolves tonight and take down a wolf. Any other scenario if we get it wrong toDay, will result in 3 wolves being around with 4 innocents (or 3 innocents and a cobbler) and that will make it easy for the wolves to control the lynch. I know that's me being pessimistic, but I just don't want to hand over our only gifted, considering the luck we've had so far.

But if I'm the only one that feels this way, and everyone else thinks that the real Hunter should come forward if Skip is lying, then maybe the Hunter should. And if the majority says they feel that way, and no one comes forward, then we can assume Skip is telling the truth. Until then, I'm very doubtful of his honesty.

Now I'm really going to bed.

[Inziladun]

Day 1:

Most smilies removed.

Originally Posted by Ozban

Greenie, great job summarizing what everyone knows already. We know nothing, whatever the reason their (meant Lottie and Shasta of course) exchange had, we can't know. Unless they care to explain. I keep wondering what led you to writing such a list...

First post. Yes, what Greenie summarised about the Shasta / Lottie deal wasn't much of a revelation, but I still don't see anything wrong with it.

Originally Posted by Ozban

And yes, traitor/cobbler can be anybody, possibly one of those Cobb-hunt theoretists. Again, we know not.

For my part: that Lottie-shasta conversation was most likely just a random recon. Wouldn't make too much fuzz around it.

Dismisses the whole thing as "random recon". What exactly does that mean?

Originally Posted by Ozban

Pitch:

I hope you are not gonna change the history records. Would be troublesome you know, not that suprising though.

Legate: I'm so glad we (more like Nerwen) convinced you about importance of cobbler, I'm so glad you won't be "ignoring" him.


You know it would be a shame, ignoring threat of cobbler completely. On the other hand, from what i got, Cobbler tends to fall into pit by himself, we are just the pendulum. I wouldn't really assign any high priority to finding him. Just get rid of him eventually when he is revealed.

Aye, the false-reveal scenarios are dangerous, but is such a theory really worth such a witch-hunt? We are starting from the scratch. Without information of any sort we will probably witness several innocent die before we find a real cobbler.

Let's find WWs. That should be our priority. One point I'll agree on with Legate.

Can't really find fault with that bit.

Originally Posted by Ozban

My friends, what is happening to you? Yesterday's friends turning suspicious at the first sign of danger. Shall we abandon all we were because of that damned Wolf Lord reigning these dungeons? Stand up for what you are, hold on to what we were through. Hunting wolves, we put our lives on the line many times. We relied on each other, now you seem forgeting our bonds. If there are traitors among us, we will find them, whatever the cost. But let's not accuse others without any solid evidence. "Yet hope remains while the Company is true." as Lord Felagund would say. And furthermore, I can't stand the thought of Sauron's amusement when he sees us turning on each other.

This strikes me as odd, but maybe it's just an innocent IC effort. Still, it almost sounds like a lupine "C'mon guys, let's get those wolves!" spoken in Tolkien-like prose.

Originally Posted by Ozban

I'm not convinced either. Neither that you are WW, neither that you aren't.



And do you really think someone would cease to suspect you because you disagree with them? Wouldn't convince me at least.



I'm terribly sorry to disappoint you Boro but I'm actualy male.



Aye Legate! You just uncovered our tactical masterpiece.

Some back-and-forth with Pitch and Boro. Legate noted that Boro's mistake about Ozban's gender was an old wolf-ploy between mates. No way to know here.

Originally Posted by Ozban

Fair thought, There are quite a few "submarinish" guys out there. That's surely worth considering. Don't they have time? Or they just stay low purposefully?

Oh screw it! this is too much for my mind to analyze.

Response to Nog.

Originally Posted by Ozban

It may be stupid, or completely out of the league, but...

+ + Legate

To clarify, which I feel I should, at least rudimentary:
I can't be sure of anybody. Eventhough Shasta and Lottie seem strange, mostly that Shasta's opinions of Pitch which seem to strangely fluctuate, (ad. Glirdan's post above).
Legate attacks, but always leaves himself some "escape path", he's too eager to back down. He does seem to try not to offend anyone. Eventhough it's not what I mean exactly, He's way too agreeable (or alibistic, your choice).

Anyway, my sixth sense tells me to vote for him.

A vote for Legate, which seemed rather out of the blue. I didn't pick up on the "sixth sense" remark at the time. Setting the stage for a false Seer-claim, maybe? Hmm. He's new, so it's impossible to tell if the phrasing is usual for him.

Day 2:

Originally Posted by Ozban

Legate I have been voting in synch with my conscience. Eventhough my vote can't accomplish anything, I won't hide in the crowd, I'm not such a hypocrite. I'm not afraid to speak up and fight for what i believe.

As for the ranger, Te Saluto!

And cause everything is said,
Oz retires to his bed.

Good night, fellow corpses.

The first part was responding to Legate, who'd said of Oz's vote the day before:

I must say that wilwa seemed okay to me from those people who voted randomly - she sounded genuinely frustrated, while Ozban sort of stood out as the negative example - he voted while there was no real chance of lynching me, and was doing it in the sort of "normal" way, as if his vote could still accomplish something, but most of all with the sort of "alibistic" style the Wolves sometimes have, saying "my hands are clean from the blood of this one".

The vote did look like a "hands clean" thing, but he certainly was direct and confident with his explanation.

Originally Posted by Ozban

After reading whole thread through again, I tend to suspect Lottie. Especially his toDay's posts sound crooked. Then again, I'd say that if Lottie'd be a wolf, she wouldn't cast a vote first. And even without any firm accusation, just a "gut-feeling"? Such an approach seem to risky for a wolf to try it.

Hmm. Just saw this. Mixed up Lottie's gender, but then got it right in the same paragraph? Odd.

Originally Posted by Ozban

I'm not really fond of Legate either, he's still seems somehow... someone described it as "too smooth". His toDay's post did fix his reputation partly, but I shall still observe him closer than the others.

Pitch never sounded wolfish, but that scenario of him being dreamt unnerves me. eventhough it seems to me more likely, that Nerwen was dreamt about. From Shasta's formulation of his trust towards her... Still can't now. (Actually I begin to think it's motto of this whole game: Do something when you know nothing.)

Legate seems a bit better to him, though he'll still "observe him closer". Also thinks Nerwen more likely to have been Shasta's dream. As it looks now, she almost certainly was, but that surely didn't appear to be the most likely scenario to me at the time.

Originally Posted by Ozban

Those last two votes, Nog n Greenie, are quite suspicious. Reading through Nog's posts, he remains active, but refrains from attacking anybody. Now I'd really need comparison with some of his older games, whether it's totaly normal or not.


This speaks for him though, doesn't it?

Serching for traces of some manipulation, as Nerwen suggested, I tend to think that it wasn't Nog's doing. I'm convinced though, that among Shasta-voters were at least one, more likely two wolves.

If there has been any silent intrigues, I'd say that Zil and Gilr were most active at accusing pauvre Seer. It may be genuine, of course, but in a way it seem too concentrated on Shasta, leaving Lottie out, why? Cover?

Also...

What the hell???
I don't know. Seems too carefree, too crowd-loving if you know what I mean.

And...

Same.

In the end Eönwë was only one of us that defended Shasta. For that he has my trust. As much as is possible in this game.

Truth is, sadly I know none of you, in-game at least. So it's hard to guess peoples intentions, without comparision with their previous styles.

He didn't like the manner in which skip and Greenie voted, thinking it was "carefree" and "crowd-loving". If I get his meaning, I would agree about skip's but not necessarily Greenie's. Then thought Eönwë was trustworthy for defending Shasta? Why was that? If I recall correctly, Shasta was done for by the time Steve got there. Standing up for Shasta at that point was meaningless.

Originally Posted by Ozban

X'ed previous with Wilwa.

You seem quite bloodthirsty ya know?
Your logic is sound though.
Is it your Lupine hunger?
About that we should ponder.
Or you may really fear for your skin.
In that case, we shall protect your kin.
Considering danger upon our head,
we need now more to be said.
Only then we may truth discern,
And to Nargothrond return.

Later...

Hmm. Poetry. Seems odd, but maybe he just does this. It's hard to judge with a new player.

Originally Posted by Ozban

++Pitchwife

Got to hurry now, so I won't explain myself entirely. Simply it's too stupid to let it get away.

Won't probably be back before DL.

Choose wisely.

Later...

Votes Pitch, despite saying earlier he thought Nerwen was probably Shasta's dream. He left the door open for Pitch in that same post, granted.

Day 3"

Originally Posted by Ozban

Reading through all that is surely puzzling. I've had few Legate-180s.
Thing is that there is still eleven of us, 3 puppies, 1 traitor, a hunter and 6 ordo's.

From what I think:

trust: Nog
Nerwen
Eonwe

suspects: Legate
Skip
Inzil
Lottie

Puzzled by: Boro
Wilwa

Greenie is somehow quiet, or so it seems, but i don't have anything against her.

I'll be here later in the afternoon. So I'll try to sum more then.

Later...

Has Legate, skip, me, and Lottie for his "suspect" list.

Originally Posted by Ozban

What a "funny" thought.

I really like Skip's posts analyzing Legate. And I tend to vote for him today. First he openly doubts Pitch's furryness. And than he washes his hands, by voting Lottie.
Same he did the day before. He made his case against her, never wavered (that itself looks weird, considering lack of any evidence). Truth is, that his second Lottie-vote might have been just a rushed, it was first vote on second lynch, and Leg was going off, but it more likely was calculated move, because Pitch's lynching was unavoidable, and it's much better-looking this way than, propeling secong wagon in a row.

Interesting. Opens the door for voting Legate, and now is quite happy with skip seemingly, despite having him in the "suspect" category the previous post. And Oz himself "doubted Pitch's furriness" by saying Nerwen was likely Shasta's dream and that Pitch "never sounded wolvish".

Originally Posted by Ozban

He didn't vote for Shasta actually (D1), but he started discussion that led to it, and then he voted Lottie, but not sooner than first Shasta-vote was cast (by Lottie actually)

I just don't trust him, I will probably vote for him if something big doesn't happen.

Later...

Originally Posted by Ozban

This is called Silence before the storm...

Might seem a bit flippant, there.

Originally Posted by Ozban

Hilarious But joining in crossed my mind too.

I have other options though, especially you!

Ok. Responds to Legate saying he was considering joining the bandwagon for skip. Back to suspecting him, again?

Originally Posted by Ozban

+ + Legate

Can't help myself, but to find him treacherous. I have repeated my reasons several times. So I'll refrain from doing it again.

First vote for Legate. We know how that turned out.

Originally Posted by Ozban

Time's running out, lightning was seen, thunder's to be heard any moment.

Originally Posted by Ozban

Kid? you are about 4 months older than me!!

Banter with Wilwa.


Day 4

Originally Posted by Ozban

I feel really bad, I blame myself for the Legate's death. Now there are nine of us left, four of that Bad-guys. We really are screwed.

Let's go all out: there's not much option left, is there? I got nothing to lose anyway, everything i did was wrong so far. And this is the only day to save the game.

During yesterDay my opinion on Legate has risen significantly. I was able to belive, that he was innocent. It was my personal-180, can't list any specific reasons, but just the change in his style caught my attention and than I reconsidered.
In that moment I started looking for wolves elsewhere, Skip being my first new choice.
After first votes were cast I was convinced that Skip's fate is sealed and evethough I deemed him a wolf, I opted not to join the wagon. My reasons were:

a) I seemed obvious that he'll be lynched even without my contribution.
b) I wanted to lay low, not to draw much attention from hairy side.
c) And finally, as I was convinced of Skip's furriness, I wanted to give puppies a tempting offer whom to vote, to try to save their comrade. I wanted to lure them to a "trap", having them to reveal their desire to save Skip. Skip cast vote for Legate right after and that sealed my suspicion of him.

I already mentioned this earlier, but three votes, with many left to go, doesn't seem to be a surefire lynch on someone you think is a wolf. And he was "convinced of skip's furriness" despite using skip's analysis as a reason to suspect Legate again?

Originally Posted by Ozban

Things turned out different, unfortunately. And what shocked me most was Inzil's vote. Last moment Skip-saviour. That stroke me as wolf pulling wolf out of the trouble at the last moment. Until reading skip's toDay's post I was convinced that they are wolves together, not knowing who the third is wasn't of much importance, eventhough I had few candidates.

Now I realize that my plan was naive at best, I did not consider Skip's eventual innocence. He must not be necesarily innocent though, his hunter-claim is hardly a proof. And my theory can still apply, I'm not that sure about it anymore, though.

I know this what i described can look false, It's a fragile construction, I realize that. Furthermore I got no proof on the matter, but please, consider it at least.

If someone can bring any light as to Skip's innocence/guilt, please do.

Damn It!! My head's gonna explode. That is, unless I drown in my pesonal sea of shame.

Originally Posted by Ozban

It was three against one and public opinion was favoring Skip as the beast, as I said, I was being naive. But I was so certain of my reasoning at that moment, not so much now.

Explains his "mistakes" as naïveté. Yet he's seemed to be very at home and savvy to the game, for a newbie. I don't know if he's played WW before, but he surely doesn't act like he's new.

Conclusions: Some concerns could be written off as personality quirks, but there's been a deal of inconsistancy too. I'm rather worried about him, at the moment.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

But if I'm the only one that feels this way, and everyone else thinks that the real Hunter should come forward if Skip is lying, then maybe the Hunter should. And if the majority says they feel that way, and no one comes forward, then we can assume Skip is telling the truth. Until then, I'm very doubtful of his honesty.

Listen Wilwa, I really do understand your concern, and don't blame you for it. I'm aware that it takes a measure of faith on your part, but if you clear your mind and think about it again, I think you will find that is makes sense for us, it really does.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Listen Wilwa, I really do understand your concern, and don't blame you for it. I'm aware that it takes a measure of faith on your part, but if you clear your mind and think about it again, I think you will find that is makes sense for us, it really does.

It's not that she's not thinking clearly, skip. She just disagrees on what would be best for the village. It happens pretty often, and what's best one game might not be best another game - but most players keep their general Werewolfing...for lack of a better word, ideals during every game. Take our lovely co-moddess Agan for instance. Her views about the cobbler stay pretty much constant - and get her into trouble sometimes. But if she ever advocated another view on the cobbler, we'd all know something was up.

[Eönwë]

Well we pretty much need to get a Wolf toDay or we're practically defeated. Even if we do get the Cobbler toDay (or the wolves kill them by mistake toNight), they're still going to be 3 against 4, which means they only need two of us to vote differently and they've already got the vote tied. So we need to think hard about who we want to vote and vote together, toDay and toMorrow (whatever toDay's outcome).

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay Skip, I tend to trust your reveal as it looks quite unlikely a wolf or even a cobbler would try that kind of a trick - at least I can't see any benefit in them doing it (correct me if I'm wrong). And I think it's good you did that because now we can narrow down our hunt with one person toDay.

I can actually see a very good reason for it. As a revealed Hunter, a wolf could avoid lynching and the question of why he wasn't Night-killed for at least a few Days, more than enough to win the game in this case. That said, I do believe skip, because, like Boro said, he has been acting quite like a possible gifted. And it is the time for the Hunter to step out, because having someone as a known innocent (And pretty much un-Night-killable) at this point is invaluable.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Eönwë seems to come in late and vote as the last or second last. On D1 I thought it was okay and understandable but I'm beginning to get more and more suspicious. Why vote on the basis of D1 on D3? So a lazy ordo or a cynical wolf?

Well, it seems that this DL is not good for me. I only get back home about three hours before DL (I have a free morning today), and at that point I was rereading Lottie's posts and I had only just finished Day 1.

And I wanted to look more closely at Legate before even thinking about voting him. Of course, now we know he's innocent.

Ok, I have about 20 minutes left, I'll try to do a list of what I think of people.

[Eönwë]

Relatively Safe:
Skip - Well, I believe his hunter reveal.
Boromir - Though at first I thought he was evil, he seems to be becoming more and more innocent, and with the best interests of the village at heart.
Wilwarin - She always seems innocent to me at first, but after the Skip thing I'm not so sure that she really has the best interests of the village at heart.


Unsure:
Ozban - Well, he seems well acquainted with this game for newbie, and quite cunning. That said, I'm not really convinced he's evil.
Inziladun - Sleek and cunning as ever, I still am not really sure on his role, but I think we need to watch out for anything suspicious. I think I'll also try to take a closer look at him later.


Dangerous:
Loslote - Probably my greatest suspicion now.
Green - She scares me. Seems like she's trying to be genuine, but something's just a little off. Though I think her early suspicion of skip redeems her somewhat. But not enough to get her out of this category.
Nogrod - Scares me almost as much as Greenie. Almost as loud and attacking as normal Nogrod, but something seems a little more calculating than usual.

[Eönwë]

New thoughts on Wilwa:

Though I'm inlcined to believe that she genuinely does disagree with Skip's reveal for the good of the village, her talk of the true hunter (if it's not Skip) staying hidden could be a clever wolvish ploy to seem as innocent as she does, yet would also make sure that the Hunter says hidden at this point when we need xem to reveal most. But she does seem genuine. I don't know. I suppose my doubts of her innocence due to this point arise from the fact that I adisagree and don't think that what she's saying would be best for the village. That said, I've finally come to the conclusion that I think she's innocent, or at least innocent enough for me not to vote her unless something drastic happens before the end of the Day.


And I leave you now, at the end of this quadruple post.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Loslote

It's not that she's not thinking clearly, skip. She just disagrees on what would be best for the village. It happens pretty often, and what's best one game might not be best another game - but most players keep their general Werewolfing...for lack of a better word, ideals during every game. Take our lovely co-moddess Agan for instance. Her views about the cobbler stay pretty much constant - and get her into trouble sometimes. But if she ever advocated another view on the cobbler, we'd all know something was up.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I can actually see a very good reason for it. As a revealed Hunter, a wolf could avoid lynching and the question of why he wasn't Night-killed for at least a few Days, more than enough to win the game in this case. That said, I do believe skip, because, like Boro said, he has been acting quite like a possible gifted. And it is the time for the Hunter to step out, because having someone as a known innocent (And pretty much un-Night-killable) at this point is invaluable.

You two as well? Alrighty, I guess that's it then. Seems I'm the only one who thinks I shouldn't do this, so I'll trust that I'm missing something and go along with you guys.

I am the real Hunter. A frustrated one who is a bit stressed at being the final gifted with a role she's had only once (and failed at) and I wasn't really willing to render myself useless, but if everyone wants that then there you have it.

That's why I don't believe Skip. That's why I jumped at what I thought was a slip on his part, I was excited that I could show he was lying without actually having to reveal. But, well, he didn't slip. So here I am.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Particularly picking someone who's been submarining for you, because if you focus on the person you are extremely suspicious of this could cloud our rationality and you start letting high emotions steer a lynch...not what we need today.

Exactly.

I could take a look at wilwa as I have no idea of her at the moment (she looks quite innocent and reasonable most of the time, but). I can also take a look at Greenie as there shouldn't be too many posts to read and she has totally flown under my radar. Although that will take place in the afternoon.


I thought I wouldn't come back to this issue any more, but maybe one more time...

Originally Posted by wilwa

I'm anxious because of Skip's unusual reveal, the reason for which doesn't make sense to me since the Hunter is our only Gifted left, our 'secret weapon', and revealing renders them useless, and no one else seems very concerned about that, in fact two players that I consider to be two of the smartest are all fine and dandy and believe him no problem, think that if he is lying the real Hunter should just play into his little trap and hand over our only advantage. This greatly concerns me.

Well, obviously Skip revealed because he was facing a lynching yesterDay at the last minutes - and a hunter doesn't want to die lynched because there is a possibility he takes an innocent with him. Looking at our numbers we hardly can afford losing two innocents in one lynch.

If we had lynched Skip-hunter yesterDay (and he had taken Leg with him as he says), we'd now be 5-3 with no "known innocent" around. Or think if he'd still be hidden and we'd lynch him and he'd miss his kill - we'd be on 4-3 facing the Night and wolves would win immediately.

So I'd say he's better out in the open now.


On the other hand, I have said that I trust him because I don't see any benefit for a baddie pulling out that kind of trick. After a night slept I must say I can see one scenario though.

So, for the argument's sake, let's suppose he is a wolf in danger of lynching yesterDay. He then comes up with this brilliant idea of posing as the hunter and threathening Inzil with taking him with if he votes for him. So now he has to continue the game as the hunter. That scenario would put this odd mistake in place:

Originally Posted by Skip

One thing you keep ignoring too is that if I die (whether lynched or night-killed) and make the mistake of hunting an innocent (and gawd, haven't I been making mistakes!) the wolves win there and then.

Although I must say that it would be odd if a wolf who poses as the hunter and had the whole Night time to prepare for his act wouldn't have checked the rules concerning the hunter (although it looks pretty weird that someone being the hunter for three Days wouldn't know them...). So it's an odd mistake whichever Skip's leanings are.

Well, if Skip is only posing, the real hunter knows that and thus more or less knows that Skip is a wolf or a cobbler. Considering that - and our dire need to lynch a baddie toDay - I'd say the hunter should really think about revealing this betrayal.* Especially if s/he faces lynching.

But without a real hunter coming forwards I think we should not lynch Skip as he could take away an innocent and we do an innocent double-lynch.



* There are of course many aspects to the hunter's decision, like how sure he is of his target for the Night if he would get attacked by the wolves, how sure he is about us getting a baddie toDay without his involvement in the affairs, or does he think we're lynching someone he really thinks is innocent...


Hey, I just found an optimistic scenario! If Skip is a wolf and we lynch a wolf toDay (other than him), then the wolves try to kill the real hunter the next Night and he takes one of them with him - then we just lynch Skip toMorrow and we win!


EDIT: X'd with wilwa!!!

[Nogrod]

Well, this changes things considerably... and well, my gut reaction would be to trust wilwa actually as my theory about a baddie Skip coming up with a nice trick started to look like a believable one as I wrote it down. *needs to think*

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I am the real Hunter. A frustrated one who is a bit stressed at being the final gifted with a role she's had only once (and failed at) and I wasn't really willing to render myself useless, but if everyone wants that then there you have it.

Oh how so very convenient this is... *knocks head off wall brain matter splatters everywhere*

If you are the hunter who wants to use your gift so bad, we should just lynch you and let you hunt Skip, that'll put this matter to rest. Or you're a wolf trying some type of risky counter now to get us to lynch the real Hunter, Skip. I'm not sure how this benefits the wolves though, since this would just mean if we lynch Skip, you'd be the one he picks. So, cobbler? The theory being you now see an opportunity to get us to lynch the true hunter, Skip, but since you countered he would target you, the cobbler, and take you down with him, thus sealing basically the win for the wolves. Am I on to something here my lady?

[Nogrod]

All right. What would wilwa and the bad side accomplish if wilwa was a cobbler or a wolf and came forwards disputing Skip's reveal?

If we lynch the real hunter Skip toDay because of wilwa's fake-reveal what happens? Skip takes with him wilwa of course as not to risk an innocent dying.
- If wilwa is a wolf it will be 4-1-2 (cobbler included); so in the next morning either 3-1-2, or 4-2.
- If wilwa is the cobbler it will be 4-3 and in the next morning 3-3!!!

If we lynch a real hunter wilwa, the same maths apply ie. if Skip is a wolf we might have some fighting chances toMorrow (if they kill their cobbler during the night) but if he's the cobbler we lose automatically.

Uh-oh...

Well what would happen if we lynched one of them right?

We'd get a cobbler or a wolf. And here I think there are different probabilities between Skip and wilwa. For I think it would have been not a good idea from a wolwilwa to make a fake-reveal but as a cobbler move it would be fantastic.
- So with wilwa correctly lynched we'd probably be in 5-3 - and thus 4-3 the next Day, with a known innocent (Skip) with us.
How about Skip then? With him I could see also the scenario where he tries to save himself form lynching also as a wolf. So he might be either one as well (he was really facing lynching there).
- If Skip is a cobbler we make it the same as with wilwacobbler; 4-3 toMorrow + a known innocent (wilwa).
- With Skipwolf we make it to 5-1-2 in the end of the Day and thus either 4-1-2 or 5-2 toMorrow (with a known innocent wilwa).

Now the question becomes, whether we can afford to not lynch one of them or whether we can take the risk of doing that? And how confident we can be to pick the right one? The last question has a bearing to the first one to be sure.

So what are our chances if we leave them both be?

Out of 9 people left we'd have a pool of 7 possible lynchées - so every innocent would have 6 possibilities to choose - and 3 of them would be baddies (3 wolves or 2 wolves & 1 cobbler). So a 50% chance to pick a baddie.

- If we'd lynch a wolf we'd be in 5-1-2, then either 4-1-2 or 5-2 toMorrow.
- If we'd lynch a cobbler we'd be in 5-3 and then toMorrow in 4-3.
- If we'd lynch an innocent we'd be in 4-1-3 and then toMorrow in 3-1-3 or 4-3.

In this scenario one must note, that toMorrow's situation includes us having there two known persons (wilwa & Skip) of which one is the hunter and another is either a wolf or a cobbler.

Quite scary scenarios...

EDIT: X'd with Boro

EDIT2: Underlined those scenarios for toMorrow that lead to a straight wolf-win or a situation where only one wrong vote would lead to wolf-victory.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Am I on to something here my lady?

No you aren't. At all. Y'all thought I should come forward, so I have.

If you lynch me I will take Skip down with me, and if he ends up being the Cobbler then we will lose. If you lynch me and I choose someone else I might get lucky and hit a wolf, but maybe I won't and an innocent could go down with me (and we lose). Basically it's riskier to lynch me. But of course you will now say "well if Skip's the real Hunter it would be risky to lynch him too", well yes, if he is the real Hunter. But he isn't, and I'm thinking that it would actually have been a smart thing for a wolf to fake reveal, knowing that we might be too scared to kill him and knowing it wouldn't be weird if he was still alive the next day, hence keeping him quite safe.

I suppose you just have to trust me. You say it would still be ok to get the Cobbler today, but a wolf would be better. Well Skip is one of them, so that's our best bet.

Not that this is much of proof, but yesterDay I decided I should start leaving hints for who I'm hunting at night, incase I were to die and no one went down with me, then my choice would be known to not be a wolf. But I only thought of it yesterDay, so if you go back and see my Legate vote there's an arrow icon, something I never use, and that was because Legate was my hunt choice at the time, and I was planning to continue with him during the Night.

And my vote Day 1 was a hint. I went on and on all day that the Hunter is only special when they die. And then I voted myself. I thought it was poetic...

x'ed with Nog

[Boromir88]

The thing is Nog, I still can't fathom a reason why a wolf would make the hunter reveal at this time. With having a significant voting advantage (and already showing the capability of controlling the lynches) I can't see them wanting to make a hunter reveal.

Which means out of wilwa or Skip, one is the hunter, the other is the cobbler who has now seen his/her opportunity to die for the wolves. I think best case, we lynch one of them today if we lynch the cobbler, we are still in a must lynch wolf scenario, but we've taken away the traitor who can follow the wolves vote (or just self-vote and let the wolves tag on).

If we lynch the hunter, because at this point my head is completely scrambles and will have to try and sort this out. I guarantee whether it Skip or wilwa, if they target the other one, they'll only find the cobbler and it's game over. Since going into the night this would make 3 wolves and 4 innocents, they make their kill and it's 3-3. So if we choose wrong and lynch the hunter, the hunter should choose someone else as a shot in dark for a wolf. But at this stage whoever the real hunter is, is going to be extremely peeved off if we wind up lynching them and probably not in any mood to help us, seeing as that would mean we've managed to lynch 2/3rds of our gifteds.

My head's going to take a break. I don't see much of a choice other than wilwa or Skip today though, even if one is most certainly the cobbler. And if we hit the cobbler, than barring the wolves doing something completely crazy and killing the hunter, we'll have a known innocent in the count and no more cobbler who can just tack on a vote with the wolves.

Edit: crossed with wilwa

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nog

For I think it would have been not a good idea from a wolwilwa to make a fake-reveal but as a cobbler move it would be fantastic.

Well, you know I'm a smart wolf, so that's not a possibility. And I've been a Cobbler once and my fake reveal as a Ranger ended up keeping the real Ranger alive for 2 days and ultimately giving away one of the wolves and handing the victory over to the village. I don't think I'd ever try a fake reveal as a Cobbler, ever again, no matter how good the situation is. But that's just my word, which you don't seem to trust...

x'ed with Boro, maybe I won't hunt Skip then, I'll hunt someone else and if y'all want to lynch me then hopefully I choose a wolf....still think it was a good idea for me to come forward? I'm not sure anymore...

[Inziladun]

Oh, bloody hell. A counter-reveal. At least it didn't come at the end of the Day.

Time to go back and look at them both.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

But that's just my word, which you don't seem to trust...

Basically I don't so much as to trust more or less anyone at this point... but did you read the part you quoted? I said it would be a bad move... meaning: less believable you did it (as a wolf, that is). So I don't think you are a wolf. You might be the cobbler. As could Skip. Hard to say.

In any case, as I said, if one of them is a wolf, then it is Skip as he was in dire straits last minutes in the game yesterDay - and that would be a good way to get himself clear from the situation (also as a cobbler).

Anyway. Greenie is actually going to pass by here and then I have things to do, but I'll be back later.

[wilwarin538]

Oh, and one more thought before people come on and start voting. Let's say there hadn't been any Hunter reveals today, which out of me and Skip would have more likely been lynched? I haven't gotten very much suspicion this whole game, Skip has, perhaps there's a reason for that?

I won't be able to come on again for a few more hours because of classes and such, but I'll be on to vote (likely for Skip, unless something more crazy happens) in about 3 hours.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Oh, and one more thought before people come on and start voting. Let's say there hadn't been any Hunter reveals today, which out of me and Skip would have more likely been lynched? I haven't gotten very much suspicion this whole game, Skip has, perhaps there's a reason for that?

I won't be able to come on again for a few more hours because of classes and such, but I'll be on to vote (likely for Skip, unless something more crazy happens) in about 3 hours.

I'm staying back from who to trust for now until I see what Skip has to say 'bout all this...

I will say the hints you've left aside, your argument that "Nog you know I'm a smart wolf, ergo I'm not a wolf and I've failed at a cobbler before. I would not try fake reveals as a cobbler again, ergo I'm not a cobbler. Means I must be hunter" isn't all that convincing. In the very least doesn't look anymore convincing than Skip's reasons for revealing. Different situation this time mah dear, simply because you've had a bad go your previous time as cobbler doesn't mean you aren't playing it brilliantly this time around. We all know your brilliance as a villain.

With that being said, the Legate hint you left in your post does speak in your favor (unless now seeing as the hunter was the only gifted left yesterday you decided to plant hints as the cobbler for a situation like this). Plus your self-vote on Day 1 could still be a signal to the wolvsies. And your general attitude today with the combined frustration of everything looks genuine, as opposed to Skip's more defeatist attitude of "Well this is a mess, I've got no choice now."

As to whether I'm happy you still revealed? Yes, because if you're the hunter this means Skips the baddie and we can lynch him. If you're not this means you're the baddie and we lynch you. If Skip's not the hunter, and you left his claim uncontested, with the wolves advantage in voting today, if we proceeded to lynch an innocent today it's all over.

Ok. Say if Skip is the cobbler here and his claim was not contested by hunter-Wilwa. The wolves wouldn't know which one of you is the cobbler or not and with the wolves numbers today could easily steer it towards an innocent we still lose 1 in the innocent count. Meaning we go into the night with 3 wolves, 5 innocents (one being the unknown hunter). Let's then Wilwa you are the hunter, and not having to reveal, the wolves picked you to kill at night, and you took one of them down. We're still in a must lynch wolf the following day, because at this point, your gift would just balance it. This would just make it 2 wolves to 4 innocents (no hunter). It's still a must lynch wolf the following day or, during the night it goes to 3 to 2, and then the wolves make it 2-2 with their night kill.

If you're the real hunter you made a good choice. If you left Skip's claim uncontested, we likely wouldn't lynch him, but the wolves + cobbler-Skip could have steered it toward another innocent. Where even if you stayed hidden, and they by chance killed you and you killed a wolf with you, the next day is still, lynch a wolf or it's over for the village. I hope you can follow that jumbled bit of math. If you're the hunter, I never said it wouldn't be a headache to come forward and see who's telling the truth, but now we know at least one of you is false.

[wilwarin538]

Ok. Yeah, I guess I see your point. I just didn't like the idea of revealing because the baddies manipulated me into a situation where I was forced to, I prefered the idea of revealing because I wanted to, you know? But yes, I see that the situation did call for me to.

Originally Posted by Boro

"Nog you know I'm a smart wolf, ergo I'm not a wolf and I've failed at a cobbler before. I would not try fake reveals as a cobbler again, ergo I'm not a cobbler. Means I must be hunter" isn't all that convincing.

I know. But I felt I had to try every argument I could come up with, no matter how lame they may be, since it's kind of important for you guys to pick the right person here.

*goes back to paying attention in class*

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I am the real Hunter.

This makes sense to me. I thought I was just being silly, thinking that skip reeked of evil. Of course, it might still be me picking up on gifted vibes (again), but I really don't trust skip, I didn't really even when I thought he was the Hunter, and I trusted Vanilwuffin even before this.

I'll be back before DL toDay, so I don't have to vote yet.

[skip spence]

Okay, I see that Wilwa has come out in the open...

Was hoping that she'd understand what I was trying to do is and stay hidden, or stay hidden because she'd deem it wiser as it long seemed, but it is understandable that she didn't in the end...

Wilwa is the real hunter, of that I'm 95 % sure. I understood that already from the beginning, which is why I urged her to consider what's going on.

Originally Posted by skip

Listen Wilwa, I really do understand your concern, and don't blame you for it. I'm aware that it takes a measure of faith on your part, but if you clear your mind and think about it again, I think you will find that is makes sense for us, it really does.

So, why then?

In my first post of the Day I mentioned a second reason for revealing:

Originally Posted by skip

I do have another reason to reveal too, apart from saving my life, and that is one I feel should come out into the open given how this game has developed.

Yes, I wanted the real hunter to reveal herself, if only for me, so our chances of getting a wolf toDay would increase.

Now I know Wilwa's innocent. I hope that you can believe me too when I say that I'm not a bad guy, not a wolf nor a cobbler, but a mere ordo.

If you think about what I did, but yesterDay and toDay, it makes little sense for a wolf to do so, wouldn't you say? It makes much more sense for a desperate innocent. Especially what I'm doing now. If I were a baddie, I'd have no reason whatsoever (bar a crazy double-bluff) to go out and say that Wilwa is right and that I bluffed.

[skip spence]

Of course, I had hoped that Legate would turn out to be a wolf. If he did, I'd quickly go out and say that my bluff yesterDay was false. Now, with Legate a proven innocent, I feared that I would seem the obvious lynch toDay if I didn't do anything drastic to stop it.

[skip spence]

I had also hoped that the real hunter would turn out to be somebody else than Wilwa, the person most universally trusted up until toDay. Still I think a lot can be learned from all this.

[Boromir88]

Jimminy crickets oh for crying out loud. Yes, what have we learned from this Skip? Other than my brain matter has not just been splattered from banging it off a brick wall, but now you and wilwa have stomped on it and mushed it up out of pure joy it seems.

*Gives up*