Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Roa_Aoife]

I have a prior engagement to get to. I'll be back on in a few hours to do an analysis of Nerwen.

[Loslote]

Brinn:

Post 1: Paranoid, suspects everyone.

Post 2: Doesn't suspect SPAM, dislikes meta-game reasoning, doesn't like random voting.

Post 3: Doesn't suspect Nienna for disliking Morsul's vote; Doesn't want to lynch Hakon and suspects Wilwa for wanting to; suspects me.

Post 4: Believes Pitchie but doesn't think he should have revealed; is sad to see SPAM go.

Post 5: Still doesn't think Pitchie's reveal was wise.

Post 6: Is annoyed by reveals; wonders whether Morsul is the agent, a wolf, or a confused ordo; wants to believe wilwa; her head hurts.

Post 7: wants to look more at other players.

Post 8: Doesn't find Nienna suspicious; wonders what Morsul is/was trying to do.

Post 9: is wary of Legate but not suspicious; wants to trust Roa but fears she is being fooled; doubts SPAM would try to lynch me if I were a wolf; doesn't particularly suspect Inzil; doesn't really have an opinion about Kitanna.

Post 10: Says the rangers may be bluffing, but doesn't think so; is uneasy about wilwa; agrees with Legate that Inzil wouldn't have agreed to Pitchie's not being a wolf, but then suspects him for saying he was innocent; finds Inzil 'creepy'.

Post 11: Still doesn't suspect Nienna; doesn't like the bandwagon against her; doesn't want to vote Nogrod, either.

Post 12: Doesn't want to vote Ni or Nog; votes Inzil for being 'creepy'.

I wanted to look closer because my memory isn't perfect, and I didn't want a suspicion based purely on gut feelings. After looking through her posts, though, I still think she's suspicious.

EDIT: xed with two Roas

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

It does seem like the quiet players are being killed off. Greenie, then Kitanna... both very quiet and not suspected by anyone. That would point to a louder player as the last wolf.

That's not too far fetched a scenario... looking at the numbers; if the real loudmouths would be killed one by one the last remaining one would feel quite lonely and might reach a premature lynching for it. Or maybe they are acting just for sportiness (as I would)?

But it's also possible the wolves wish the loudmouths to tear each other apart - as has happened quite a many times...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

It does seem like the quiet players are being killed off. Greenie, then Kitanna... both very quiet and not suspected by anyone. That would point to a louder player as the last wolf. SPM was also keen to focus on the quiet ones, and we know his reasons to be nefarious. But was he diverting attention away from more than just himself?

In a way, that would be quite good at least from the point of view that it won't be any submarine who would escape us. Though, what exactly do you call "loud". Okay, by this logic, next person killed should be Brinn or something like that.

Anyway, I think the Wolves this far, in either case, had probably good reasons to kill the quiet players, especially last Night, simply to keep the village in the dark as much as possible. Of course, the choice they made could also have been totally random.

Personally, this tactic goes well together to me with the image that one of the Wolves is Hakon or wilwa (maybe wilwa a bit more than Hakon in this case): they both are the kind of people whom I could imagine killing tracelessly. The remaining Wolf then could be people like Brinn, Nerwen, even maybe Lari... I don't think it fits for example Roa. By the way, one reason why I do not suspect Roa that much is also that I would expect her to kill Nog at Night or something. Although thinking of that, I do not really recall what kind of people she tends to kill as a Wolf, but at least this would sound logical to me.

EDIT: x-ed with the beginning of the page

[Pitchwife]

Here's what Brinn actually said about Zil (#233):

A wolf Inzil wouldn't want to eliminate the possibility that Pitch could be lying so that if the wolves decide to intentionally leave him alive then we'll start to doubt Pitch's innocence and lynch him. It'd be a risky move to leave a seer alive and dreaming, though perhaps our wolves are afraid to kill him anyway with the possibility of hitting the ranger's protection and would rather have the village take care of him. Another thing that worries me about this quote is that last line. Anyone who clearly states "I am innocent" always makes me wary because someone who is really innocent does not need to emphasize or reassure that truth unless they are being heavily suspected at the time

Lottie's very much abbreviated rendering makes it sound like Brinn was contradicting herself here ("but then..."). But as far as I can see, this is a solid argument about Zil's reaction to my reveal, and I think it was one reason for her to vote him - not merely because she found him 'creepy'.
(I'm not saying what I think of Zil here, just commenting on Lottie's representation of Brinn.)
Anyway, it would be good to hear Brinn herself. Or Lari and Nerwen, for that matter.

[Nogrod]

I'll just send this first... I have some other quotes clipped and will produce them as I first make some comments on them...


Hakon -> Wilwa
(“Wilwa is faking.”)
Morsul -> Hakon
(“Hakon seems the worst off in the bunch”)
Crayon -> Morsul
(“1) if I'm the only one that votes for him, than at least I did not contribute to the possible death of the real Priest, 2) if more do vote for him, than he dies and frankly, no one will mourn, and 3) I'm thinking that if I wanted people to not find out that I'm a wolf I would make myself clearly look like something else.”)
Nienna -> Nogrod
- 1.00 wilwa -> Nienna
(“Honestly, I've been so focused on all these reveals I've barely looked at anyone else, but one thing that stuck out was how Nienna claimed that Nerwen was "closed minded" about Morsul. That just doesn't make much sense to me. I know that's flimsy, but I just don't have the time I expected to have to look closer at other people. Uh, this sucks.”)
- 0.59 Loslote -> Nogrod 2
(“because that last post sounded off to me. It seemed like he was either trying to get one of the 'revealed' lynched, when we've already decided to mostly leave them be - or trying to throw suspicion on Roa for making strong points... Argh. This vote is barely better than my last one...”)
- 0.33 Lari -> Nienna 2
(“Taking her defense on Day 1 with her vote post(so she doesn't like Nerwen's closemindness about what was kind of a bad fake reveal...but votes Nog? I honestly can't see the logic in that one, because she says she's not comfortable voting for Nerwen...but she is for Nog?”)
- 0.16 Inzil -> Nienna 3
(“Wilwa's reasoning for Nienna struck me as suspicious, since she used almost the same wording as in my post. I was going to vote for Nienna myself, though.”)
- 0.12 Roa -> Nogrod 3
(“Because innocent Nogrod accuses me of being evil every time I do an unfavorable analysis of him, and Wolf-grod tries to keep the waters calm.”)
- 0.06 Nogrod -> Nienna 4
- 0.05 Nerwen -> Morsul
(“I'm not sure enough about either Nienna or Nogrod to vote them.”)
- 0.01 Brinn -> Inzil
(“I would rather have no part in the Nienna and Nogrod bandwagon. Nienna hasn't even been here to defend herself and I already said I'm uncomfortable voting Nog. Right now I still find Inzil creepy”)
- 0.01 Legate -> Inzil 2
(“I get bad feeling from Inzil, really, from a few things I spotted. So I will probably vote him. Especially his indefinite judgements like "I don't like this" and things like what he said about me, "Legate seems like he might need watching for some reason, but it's nothing I can can out my finger on. It's not in anything in particular he's said; more the tone I guess." This is a sort of typical Wolfish indefinite door-for-suspicion-open-talk.”)

[Nogrod]

I'll send you some quotes this time as well, even it will be a long one...


Okay, Hakon looks quite innocent in the following quotes...

Originally Posted by Hakon #171

I am protecting Pitch tonight as I have already stated and Wilwa is not protecting anyone since she will be coming after me with her pack mates.

and after Loslote suspected him…

Originally Posted by Hakon #184

I am not new to WW. I am on the newer side. This is my sixth or seventh game. I did not guard Pitchwife since I knew the wolves would expect that. They expected me to guard him so I avoided doing so and thus I can now guard him when they will go for him. I made that clear, did I not?

What did wilwa say yesterDay then?

Originally Posted by Wilwa #164

Both Pitch and Morsul are making me uneasy. I really don't know which is really being truthful. I am tempted to believe Morsul though. I mean think about it, if he was faking it wouldn't he have said that he too had dreamt of SPM?? Just to make it more believable? I don't know it's tough.....

Oh my Hakon. So I was right to vote you yesterDay. You're really going to make me do this aren't you??

Originally Posted by wilwa #168

I posted that then got off the computer to study for a bit, and I realised afterwards I should have never said who I protected, so I came back on. Besides, I'm not even positive Pitch is the dreamer, it could be Morsul. But it's so obvious to me that Hakon is evil, I just wanted it to be out there so we can definitely get a baddie today. I could always protect myself toNight and then get another protection (that only I know about) the following Night, or something. Like I said, I've never played this role before, so I'm not used to it.

Originally Posted by wilwa #221

Now. This may make alot of sense, but it also may not, to me it does anyway. I think me, Hakon and Pitch will all still be alive tomorrow. Because Hakon is wolf, so they're not gonna kill him. And they're not gonna kill me cause they're gonna want Hakon to continue to look good, and in order to do that they have to keep Pitch alive (since that's who he's supposedly "protecting") and me being dead, well it'll reveal who I really am and the wolves don't want that right now.

So we know we get atleast one more dream out of Pitch (two actually because I can protect him the next Night). I don't think he should waste that dream on me, Morsul or Hakon. We already know Morsul is the Agent, no reason to waste a dream on that, and you all know either me or Hakon are the Priest and a Wolf. So therefore the dream should go towards someone else all together. Make sense?

Originally Posted by wilwa #239

So I'm sure I'll still be here tomorrow, I can't see the wolves killing me and leaving HakonWolf out in the open like that. I really hope Pitch that you don't waste your dream on one of us, like I explained before.

Well first she says she believes Morsul more than Pitch but after being commented on playing to the wolves' hands and revealing she had protected Pitch the last Night by Roa she explains that she had realised her mistake in revealing her protection... and says she's "not even positive" Pitch is the real seer as it could be Morsul as well... hmm...

Interesting what she says about protecting herself btw. That's not a normal procedure and there seems to be no mention of it in the rules...

Then there are these "I'm sure I'm alive toMorrow" -things. The logic seems more or less correct but the way she kind of prepares for her being alive toDay looks fishy indeed. Although it is perfectly possible the wolves counted on that in part when making their decision last Night.

I don't know. wilwa is clearly on spot in this game and makes good points but also manages to make herself look pretty suspicious at times. Hakon is much more straightforwards and looks basically missing some of the subtleties but feels quite innocent.

That call for Pitch not to dream either of them in the end looks like a logical thing to say but somehow it feels a bit awkward... a bit premature or something.



With Inzil it’s kind of walking the rope again on Day2… Just check fex. how the following could be read:

Originally Posted by Inzil #132

I'd say Pitch is in the good books for sure. I'm anxious to see what his dream may have revealed. I'm afraid his time is likely short, but he should at least be able to give us a known innocent.

Defending himself from Kit who said he had not found anyone suspicious but Loslote & Nienna.

Originally Posted by Inzil #141

Actually, until Pitch's reveal, I have to say I was leaning toward Loslote. I didn't like her vote for Pitch, as it seemed to me she was simply grasping at the comments made by SPM and Nog (that I had noted earlier I thought were overreactions on their parts), and using them to justify her suspicion of Pitch.

To Hakon’s revealment and boasting of being right on Spm.

Originally Posted by INzil #153

I'll say nothing about your reveal in itself, save for the fact that you certainly should only have done this if you were in serious danger of being lynched. And yes, indeed you were right about SPM. I still don't endorse the thought process that led you to your conclusion though.

And the controversial one in full…

Originally Posted by Inzi #163

Here's why I have a tough time with this, Morsul.

Theoretically, Pitch could be a wolf, and his giving up SPM a plot to ensure his being thought innocent the rest of the game.
However, if Pitch survives beyond Day 3 or so, I would have to assume he was a wolf and go for him. Everyone knows that a revealed Seer is a dead Seer. It's only a matter of time. If he wasn't killed by the wolves after the oportunities for the Priest to protect him ran out, we'd have his number.
I do appreciate your giving me the all-clear though, as I am indeed innocent.

Originally Posted by #170

I think of the two Priest claimants, Hakon would be the more likely fraud, since there was *no* legitimate reason for him to have revealed.

And finally an answer to wilwa.

Originally Posted by #236

I don't know that wolves would leave a generally accepted seer alive, just to keep up a charade by one of their number. I think the logic there is a bit flawed.
I do think the seer / ranger confusion ought not to be a concern of ours when it comes to votes right now.

As on Day1 I would say Inzil looks a bit more innocent than guilty... but it's a thin line.


Okay, done with that. *phew*

Now some concentrated comments from the material I have been collecting and for some other things as well before going to bed.

[Loslote]

Crayon:

Post 1: warns that he might not be on at DL; informs that Roa might not make it on at all; suggests asking a random question to everyone to see how they respond.

Post 2: votes Inzil, no reason; accepts Crayon nickname.

Post 3: Is suspicious of wilwa and Hakon.

Post 4: votes Morsul because he doesn't think anyone else will vote for him, doesn't think it will matter too much if they do, and suspects that he may be a wolf.

Crayon hasn't posted much at all. This is his first game here, though, and according to Roa, he's been busy in RL. I'm not too suspicious of him right now. What little he's posted has been fairly well reasoned (excepting Post 2) and helpful.

[Nogrod]

Looking at the votes of those we'd need to choose toDay then…


Inziladun
D1
Votes Spm as first after the revealment. Neutral flag or even a positive one as a wolf might have wished to see whether the claim was believed in the first instance and restrained his vote for a moment (even if he had ended up with the same vote).
D2
Puts Nienna in front of me by one vote when it looked like it was a run between us two (innocents), had suspected her already.

So?: neutral on a bit more innocentish than guilty looking. Goes well with my thoughts of him after looking more closely at his posts today.

Loslote
D1 Voted early for Pitchie, for no real reasons (but it was early to be frank).
D2 Voted me an hour before the deadline with “a rushed vote” – as noted by some others totally misreading my post.

So?: Hard to say. Both votes are a bit unqualified ones if I may say so... But is it just inexperience and hurry or something more sinister? Hard to say indeed. Other factors but voting should be considered with her.

Roa
D1 Voted Spm before Pitchie’s reveal… kudos for her!
D2 Voted me twelve minutes before the DL putting me level with Nienna. What troubled me with that vote was that it came a bit out of the clear blue sky… she had made an analysis of me much earlier and said I was somewhat suspicious, but after that she had been silent about it. It still bugs me a bit to be honest… too good a timing.

So?: The D1 vote sure looks good - unless it was risky wolvery that was backed by a shot of incredible luck of getting into the book of innocents (or bad luck as Spm got lynched in the end). I didn't understandably like her vote on D2. So vote-wise I'd say good with reservations that need to be backed up from somewhere else than just voting (I'll try to look at her tomorrow eg. later in the Day).

Craydon1
D1 Votes Inzil with no reason given (apologizes for it on Day2 though).
D2 Makes a decent case why he votes for Morsul the agent even if those reasons have not been appreciated by the majority of the village. Says also interestingly: “I'm thinking that if I wanted people to not find out that I'm a wolf I would make myself clearly look like something else.” Whatever that means…

So?: No idea. If a submarine wolf then a most dangerous one as none would like to lynch a newbie-guy getting ready to go to war... Still I wouldn't suggest lynching him among the first ones we've have to choose.

Nerwen
D1 Goes with the bandwagon for Spm…saying “Well, then, it's now easy”.
D2 Takes an eyebrow-raising third-way giving Morsul the second vote five minutes before the DL. Claims she doesn’t wish to take sides in the choice between me and Nienna.

So?: D1 vote doesn't tell anything. Morsul had one vote already on D2 and she had suggested that choice earlier, so it looks a bit more innocentish. Unlike Brinn and Legate she could have entertained a real possibility of getting someone else than me or Nienna lynched - if that was her thought at the time; not wishing to see either of us lynched? But then again, if she knew we both were innocents wouldn't that be what a tricky wolf would do?

Legate
D1 Votes Spm as second after the revealment.
D2 Gives Inzil a second vote one minute before the DL for “indefinite door-for-suspicion-open-talk”.

So?: With the Spm-vote the same thing applies as with Inzil above. But his vote for Inzil on D2 looks quite suspicious indeed. Like washing his hands from lynching an innocent (like knowing there were two innocents at the gallows) and thus opening up a totally new voting one minute before the DL eg. knowing it would not succeed? The shared most suspicious one based on voting only.

Lariren Shadow
D1 Gives Spm his second last vote.
D2 Gives Nienna her second vote half an hour before the DL. Thinks her illogical + the first Day over-defensiveness.

So?: One more of these "hard to says". Waiting so long to vote for Spm might point to wolvery (wishing to see any miracles) but also to time-issues. D2 vote is just neutral.

Brinn
D1 Gives the last vote to Spm.
D2 Her vote for Inzil at one minute before the DL – opening a totally new path – while claiming she wouldn’t like to take part in a choice between me and Nienna looks pretty bad to me indeed. Not want to “take part”?

So?: What I said of Lari concerning D1, but her vote for Inzil looks pretty suspicious indeed. Like washing her hands from lynching an innocent (like knowing there were two innocents at the gallows) and thus opening up a totally new voting one minute before the DL eg. knowing it would not succeed? The shared most suspicious one based on voting only.



Counting only voting Brinn and Legate look the worse to me - mainly based on their votes on Day2. But they can't both be wolves which kind of dulls the edge...

It's easy to see why someone would look suspicious, but which are the right reasons to catch the actual baddie? Sorry Legate I seem to have forgotten the suggestion you made on the "known innocent syndrome"...

Anyway. I'm off to bed pretty soon as it's a bit too late anyway. But I'll be back at the latter part of the Day trying to make some more precise looks around.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

On a more serious note, I am expecting everyone to play their full part toDay (and, indeed, every Day). When it comes to voting, we won’t have a lot to go on. But we’ll have even less if people don’t speak up, play their part, make their opinions known.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

Interesting SPM to say that toDay we should all play our parts. At the moment I'm going to assume you mean as a village to try to get the wolves, which we all want to do.

This turned into a big conflict, with Lari claiming it meant SPAM was the Agent or, *gasp*, a wolf. If Lari was a wolf, like SPAM, would they make such a big deal out of that little quote? Or were they just bickering to make it seem like they weren't at all connected?

[Pitchwife]

Some thoughts that just struck me reading Nog-Rodoth's list of quotes:

Originally Posted by wilwa #164

I am tempted to believe Morsul though. I mean think about it, if he was faking it wouldn't he have said that he too had dreamt of SPM?? Just to make it more believable

?
Would it really have been more believable? Imagine:
Seer 1: I'm the Seer.
Seer 2: Me too.
Seer 1: I've dreamt SpM, he's a wolf.
Seer 2: Me too.
Now that would have screamed fake, wouldn't it? I actually think Morsul was clever in claiming he'd dreamt something different, although it was a risky move (what if he'd revealed one of our gifted as ordo, or vice versa?). So if that was an attempt by a wilwolf to make her fake-revealing Agent look better, it fails for weak reasoning.
And Zil - most of what he's said up to now looks reasonable and logical to me (which probably means he's a wolf, but never mind, we can't second-guess ourselves all the time). His initial response to my reveal (i.e. mentioning I might be the Agent etc.) looks possibly wolvish on first sight (tarnishing the Seer's credibility), but I can't honestly fault him for it - I've done it myself as an innocent (when our Mod was the Seer and I the Ranger, for those who weren't there) and think wariness about an early Seer reveal is OK; but most of all, if he was a wolf he'd have known this approach would collapse as soon as SpM was lynched.
And finally there's this:

Originally Posted by Zil #241

I don't see that Nog was saying either of those things, really. Seems a bit of a reach.

He(=Zil)'s right, he(=Nog) wasn't. This adds to my impression that Lottie's misrepresenting what other people said to justify her suspicions of them (see my comments on what she said about Brinn above). Not sure whether it's really on purpose, this being her second game or so, but the tone of her posts sounds like she's gotten the hang of the game pretty well, so I'm sorry to say she doesn't look too good to me right now.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

He(=Zil)'s right, he(=Nog) wasn't. This adds to my impression that Lottie's misrepresenting what other people said to justify her suspicions of them (see my comments on what she said about Brinn above). Not sure whether it's really on purpose, this being her second game or so, but the tone of her posts sounds like she's gotten the hang of the game pretty well, so I'm sorry to say she doesn't look too good to me right now.

As I said, the vote was totally rushed. I was almost literally out the door at the time. My reading through of Nogrod's post at best gleaned surface impressions only. When I read through the post later, after DL, I was able to look closer, and yes, my first impression was wrong. I apologize again for being in such a hurry I couldn't properly analyze my suspect.

[Pitchwife]

Fair enough - I know perfectly well RL can mess up our WW perfomance at times. I'm also keeping in mind that SpM's vote on Day 1 speaks in your favour (with a slight question-mark). But you won't mind me going on watching you, will you?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Fair enough - I know perfectly well RL can mess up our WW perfomance at times. I'm also keeping in mind that SpM's vote on Day 1 speaks in your favour (with a slight question-mark). But you won't mind me going on watching you, will you?

Of course not! That's the point of the game, isn't it? If no one suspected you and took your word for granted, it wouldn't be much fun.

[Loslote]

Deadline is, again, quite awful for me. I'll either be able to get on just before deadline to vote but won't really have time to look through the posts, or I won't get on at all after half an hour from now. So I'm going to

++ Brinn

now, so that I won't miss my chance altogether...bah.

[Lariren Shadow]

Sorry I haven't been around, I'm working on a major project about, ironically enough, the werewolf in Marie de France.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Well, the wolves didn't try Pitchie toNight. The question becomes, why?

Also I find it interesting right now that it was Kit they chose, and not fex. Roa and Legate as it seems basically no one suspects them...

And these two questions I find inter-related.

So they didn't try Pitchie, and the only reason for that would be that they were afraid of the ranger. But if they believed so strongly that the ranger would be able to protect Pitch as to not even try the seer, then why on earth not kill people like Roa or Legate who would then be pretty probably without protection?

Or is the whole scenario flawed in some basic way? I need to do some work but will return to these questions - and others in an hour or two.

It seems like the wolves feel comfortable at the moment. That maybe they thought that going after one of those who revealed was just a bad idea in general. Either you get blocked by Hakon's protection, or blocked by Wilwa's protection.

The question is then why didn't they go after Hakon? Wilwa said she would be protecting herself, and I'm not sure if that is even in the rules, but then why not kill him? Is it because he is a wolf or is he the Agent and they think that is a ploy for them? What if our thinking that Morsul is the Agent is wrong? What if he is a newbie wolf, told by his packmate to reveal falsely? Or could Hakon's not death point to that he is a wolf and possibly that Morsul is also a wolf and they planned a whole double reveal planning on not killing Pitch because the logical thing for the real Priest to do would be to protect the Dreamer?

Or this could be all farfetched.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

My question is why didn't they kill the real ranger? If they're afraid of the ranger, it makes sense to get him/her out of the way so that they have a clear path to the seer. The only reason not to is continue with this rediculous gamble. And besides, assuming the ranger was protecting Pitch, NO ONE ELSE in the village would have been protected, and NO ONE suspected Kitanna. She had such little attention on her that it would have been remarkable for her to suddenly gain the spotlight and get lynched. She's hardly comparable to you and I and Legate even when it comes to stage hogging.

Maybe they wanted to keep us questioning for a Day longer?

[Roa_Aoife]

Alright, I'm back. I'm going to do my analysis of Nerwen. As far as what's been said: I don't think Loslote is intentionally misrepresenting people. Other than her, no one has been paying attention to Brinn. She is, for better or worse, slipping under the radar. So even if she's been making straight on statements, they have not been the kind that grab attention. The fact that this is the first we've considered it is proof enough. I'll have a better idea once I do my own analysis of her, which will come after the analysis of Nerwen.

[Hakon]

Morsul is a wolf. I have just spent about an hour thinking of plans I would hatch if I were a wolf in this game. It occurred to me that the ideal thing to do is let the newbie wolf reveal as a false gifted and then make a slip up on purpose in order to be brushed off as the cobbler/agent and that Wilwa might be the real agent.

I know you all do not like these methods I am about to use but I find them very useful.

First let us take a look at the known wolf. SPM was an experienced player playing for the first time in a while. He was made a wolf. Wilwa might be a wolf, also an experienced player and playing for the first time in a while. Morsul might be a wolf and he is a newbie, this is his first time playing. Anyone noticed the pattern emerging? If we follow that pattern then Lostole or Crayon person is the final wolf. This is Lostole's second game and Crayon guys first. All of these people here are playing for the first time in a while or are new. I doubt both Morsul and Lostole or Morsul and Crayon man are wolves. I would say we can cross Crayon boy off the list.

Let us recap briefly, SPM was a wolf. Either Wilwa or Morsul is a wolf or the agent. I think Lostole is the final wolf. More likely Wilwa is a wolf then the agent since she is experienced and can properly guide Lostole through the game.

To sum things up the agent is Morsul and the remaining wolves are Lostole and Wilwa.

[Lariren Shadow]

Hakon, you do realize your first sentence and last sentence are contradictory, right?

[Roa_Aoife]

Roles are decided at random, Hakon. A player's style or status has nothing to do with it. We explained this the first Day. We have almost three Days worth of material to look at in order to find a wolf. Look at that if you want to bring forth legitimate reasoning.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

Hakon, you do realize your first sentence and last sentence are contradictory, right?

I didn't even see that. Good catch, Lari.

[Inziladun]

Looking at Loslote (not comprehensive, just things I found notable)

Day 1:

# 9- Said she would probably be dead by Day 3

# 40- Jumped on Craydon's idea about answering a random question, complied.

# 57- Defended Craydon's idea, saying wolves would 'try to distract' when answering the question.

I didn't, and still don't see how doing what Craydon suggested was any help at all.

# 58- Laid out SPM and Pitch as top suspects, but said would likely vote the latter because he was 'joking, trying to get on everyone's good side'.
And she did vote for Pitch.

Day 2:

[Roa_Aoife]

I think you lost half your post there, Inzil.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I think you lost half your post there, Inzil.

Yes I did. I'm not sure what happened.

Loslote Day 2:

# 183- Said Morsul was probably the Agent, Wilwa the Priest, and Pitch the Dreamer. Said Wilwa's reveal made more sense. I'd have to agree.

#202- Did analysis of Legate and concluded he was probably an ordo.

#240- Voted Nog for trying to get the revealed gifteds lynched, and casting suspicion on Roa, neither of which appeared to be the case. She later explained it by saying she had been in a hurry and hadn't had time to fully read Nog's post. That I can understand, because I was in a tremendous hurry myself coming up to DL.

And today she's tried to make a case on Brinn, listing Brinn's posts. She concludes by saying she finds Brinn suspicious, but doesn't really say why. Later votes Brinn.

Hm. SPM's vote for her has been used as reasoning for her being innocent,
but I don't think wolf-on-wolf would be out of the question. As has been pointed out, the vote for her would have seemed safe enough, and unlikely to lead to her lynching, and would set her in a fairly positive light.

I'm on the fence about her at this point.

[Roa_Aoife]

Nerwen

Day 1

Post 1- Banter with Greenie, says the wolves will want to appear helpful with out giving themselves away

Post 2- Points out that no one can really prove their alibis

Post 3- Points out that Wilwa's post #21 is little more than telling people to post more, explains to Morsul that the narrations don't have any clues

Post 4- Tells Morsul that the vote isn't meant to be random

Post 5- Doesn't like Hakon's vote

Post 6- response to Morsul: says she had no theories on wolves because it was too early to tell, doesn't think the wolves would have trouble with Crayon's question

Post 7- Response to SPM: Loslote's only played one game, and why does he suspect her

SPM did state that he suspected Nerwen, but he never gave a reason why. Was he tossing suspicion around, jumping onto Morsul's expressed suspicion, or distancing a fellow wolf?

Post 8- doesn't find Nienna's reaction to Morsul's vote suspicious, says that Nienna's comment on Hakon was similar to something she did as a wolf in the last game

Post 9- Votes SPM

I would like to know who she was going to vote pre-reveal, but it looks like it would have been Nienna from the way her posts were going, as she's the only one Nerwen had expressed suspicion towards.

Post 10- Response to Inzil: says it's unlikely that Pitch is the Agent

Post 11- Accepts Pitch's reason for revealing so early. Suggests that the Changed and the dreamer might appreciate suggestions

Post 12- "Well, it's not as though he left that many posts for them to go through."

I assume she means SPM.

The impression that Day 1 gave me is someone who is playing carefully. Now, innocents play carefully too, even if I don't agree with that style. But wolves are more likely to do so.

Day 2

Post 1- reaction to mass reveals

She took the words right out of my mouth

Post 2- Tells Morsul that we just aren't going to listen to him, response to Crayon, doesn't think both priests are wolves, response to Nienna: tells her that Morsul definitely tried to reveal as gifted, asks her how there could be a scenario of two competing sets of gifteds with out there being a wolf in the mix.

Other than slightly misunderstanding Crayon's post, there's nothing. Except that this is where the suspicion of Nienna started.

Post 3- Response to Nienna: says Morsul only claimed it was a joke after Roa caught him slipping

Did Morsul ever claim it was a joke? I don't think so. Still, that's not so bad. She defends our seer. On the other hand, well, it was pretty obvious that Morsul was lying, so not defending Pitch would have been suspicious.

Post 4- Points Brinn towards suspecting Nienna

She seems pretty solid about this case against Nienna

Post 5- Explains to Morsul that he can't change sides.

Post 6- Says she won't vote our priests yet, Agrees with Inzil that Nog could definitely be a wolf, agrees with Crayon that Morsul could be a wolf pretending to be an agent, but that it isn't likely.

Post 7- Continues on the idea that Morsul must be the agent, continues to explain that she's suspicious of Nienna

Post 8- says that Morsul was probably trying to get Pitch lynched, doesn't think that we have more than one wolf in the mix, can't tell who

Post 9- Agrees with Legate that Inzil looks suspicious

Post 10- Response to Nienna: doesn't see why she should be open minded about Morsul, questions Nienna's vote for Nogrod

Post 11- Disagrees with Wilwa about the kill saying anything. Says the seer should dream of Wilwa or Hakon

I don't like the way she suggests the seer use his dream like that.

Post 12- Says the wolves won't try to continue the gamble, doesn't think that the wolves are new, wonders why the reveal

But Wilwa was right- we couldn't tell anything from the kill. Which I'm not sure makes Wilwa more suspicious or less.

Post 13- Is suspicious of Wilwa based on her reasoning behind not getting dreamed.

Post 14- Is now second guessing herself on Nienna

Now that Nienna is in danger of getting lynched, Nerwen does a 180 and is suddenly unsure of who to vote for, after being on Nienna for two Days, arguing against Brinn in favor of Nienna's guilt, but one post from Inzil, who voted for Nienna himself, changes her mind suddenly?

Post 15- suggests that we lynch Morsul

What? As the Agent, in case you've forgotten, he counts as an innocent in our numbers vs the wolves.

Post 16- Votes Morsul

So she decides she's going to go against what everyone else has said and votes Morsul. Contrary to Nogrod, I don't think that was seriously putting Morsul up as a candidate since it was clear by then that no one else would have voted for him. Not only that but she also said that both Nogrod and Inzil were suspicious. So why not vote for one of them? Why throw her vote away?

Post 17- Says that Nogrod accusing Roa of being a wolf makes him look evil.

Ironically, that's what convinced me of his innocence.

I really, really don't like the way she built up the suspicion of Nienna through out the Day, only to drop it at the last second and vote for someone who had NO chance of getting lynched. She also said that the points against Nogrod were good, but she also avoided voting for him. She continues with her carefulness.

Day 3

No show yet



Her sudden change of heart on Nienna is remarkably suspicious, especially after trying so hard to bring others onto the idea Nienna being a wolf, beginning with suspicion on Day 1. That's a long time to suspect someone only to suddenly change your mind just as they are about to be lynched.

edit: crossed with Inzil

[Roa_Aoife]

I am going to do an analysis of Brinn, and then I will probably go to bed. I will be on briefly a few hour before DL, and but I have church in the morning so I won't be on for long.

Of course I'll be thinking of the game all through the service.

[Inziladun]

Interesting analysis of Nerwen, Roa. I'd like to hear what she has to say.

That bit from Hakon earlier: I would say the slip(?) of saying opposite things in the same post makes him look highly suspicious, but his being a wolf almost seems too easy. I find the uncertainty swirling around our gifteds extremely frustrating, but if everyone else is of the mind to let the matter be for now, so be it.

[Hakon]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

Hakon, you do realize your first sentence and last sentence are contradictory, right?

Yes I know. The first line was the original thought that led to the last line which was the final thought.

[Roa_Aoife]

Brinniel

Day 1

Post 1- Nothing but fluff

Post 2- Explains to Hakon that one's status as a player has nothing to do with the role one is assigned, doesn't like that Crayon and Loslote don't really give reasons for their votes

Post 3- Doesn't think Nienna is suspicious, is wary of people who want to lynch Hakon early in the game (namely Wilwa), gives Crayon the newbie pass, thinks some good points have been brought up against Loslote

This post comes about 15 minutes after Picth's reveal and has no cross-post marker. The points against Loslote are primarily from SPM at this point, who has just revealed to be a wolf by the seer.

Post 4- Believes Pitch, votes SPM

This post is 20 minutes after her last one. Why the long wait? Hoping for a miracle?

Post 5- Understands why Pitch revealed but thinks it was premature.

The only suspicious thing is how long she took to react to Pitch, but that could easily be explained by RL reasons.


Day 2

Post 1- Suggests that Morsul may be the wolf and that we should lynch him at some point just to be safe, but also says that he may be a very confused ordo. Thinks Wilwa is more likely to be the Ranger than Hakon

Well, she's either over thinking or trying to stir up confusion, and I can't say which. It's very easy for anyone to get caught in the trap of over-thinking. Nienna did the same and got lynched for it, so I'm hesitant to make a judgement.

Post 2- Agrees that we should focus away from the mess of gifteds

Post 3- Response to Nerwen: doesn't think Nienna is suspicious for her comment

Post 4- Basic thoughts on the Day: Legate- more innocent than not, Roa- makes sense but is still Roa, ergo untrustworthy, Loslote- inclined to exonerate her based on SPM's vote, Inzil- bad vibes, Kitanna- wants to keep an eye on her

She is, I believe, the only person to mention Kitanna in a somewhat negative light.

Post 5- Says we probably won't know the ranger by the kill, feels uneasy about Wilwa, Says Legate has a good point about Inzil, finds Inzil creepy

Legate misquoted Inzil, who was not, in fact, trying to make it seem as though Pitch was lying but instead explaining was he wouldn't be. So Brinn's suspicion on this is flawed. But she's basing it off what someone else said, so she's either being taken in or she's continuing on purpose, and I have no way to tell.

Post 6- Has a bad feeling about the Nienna bandwagon, doesn't want to vote Nogrod because she hasn't really looked at him

Post 7- Goes with her gut and votes Inzil

I don't see a problem with this. She didn't think either candidate was wolfish, so she did what most of us do and voted for the person she found more suspicious. Nogrod finds her vote suspicious, but I get the feeling it's because she didn't vote in a manner to save him or Nienna, and with out the knowledge we have now, I don't see why she should.


Day 3

No show yet


Her suspicions on Day 1 are unclear, but then, so are a lot of people's. Her suspicions on Day 2 amount to "creepy Inzil." One could argue that there is plenty to go on and form an opinion with than a gut feeling, but that is the only suspicious thing about her. If we continue on and I still don't get a clear vibe from her, I may reconsider her because she could very easily be slipping through the cracks. Especially if she's still alive when our known innocents and gifted are gone, since the wolves seem to be favoring the quiet kills.

[Roa_Aoife]

Final thought before I head off to bed:

ToMorrow's kill should tell us a great deal- if they have the ability to kill the seer (because Hakon is the Ranger) I think they will, because even if it all goes bad toDay (we lynch an innocent) that will leave us with 11 players, two of whom we know the identity of, two of whom we know to have a 50/50 chance of being a wolf. Leaving 7 people standing a chance of being a wolf. If Pitch is alive and has dreamed of an innocent, that will leave 6, which means for each of the innocents only 5 people to look at. That would be considerably small numbers.

There is also the possibility the seer will dream of the last wolf, and with one already out in the open, that is something they can't afford. So if they don't kill Pitch tonight, and kill Nogrod instead, it will be because they can't, which would make Wilwa the Ranger.

Of course no matter what they do, that's still leaves 3 known people at least: If they don't kill Pitch, then it would be Pitch, Morsul, and whoever Pitch dreams of. If Pitch is dead, then it's Nogrod, Morsul, and Hakon. However, in the first scenario, we would still be certain of one of the wolves and known the other was hiding in a much lower number.

Nogrod, Pitch, what do you think?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Case 2: Wilwa is the Ranger, Hakon is a Wolf
Vice versa. Wilwa, the Ranger, said she cannot protect the Seer toNight. It would make sense for the WWs to attack the Seer, then, and get rid of him. It would mean, though, that Hakon will be exposed as a lying Ranger (though they could still try to outtalk it on the next Day, that he actually could not have protected the Seer, but he was bluffing to try to save him for one, resp. two more Nights). It is also distinctly possible that Wilwa the Ranger would be bluffing and actually protecting the Seer that Night, in that case, it would be a risk of losing the kill, and also helping Wilwa prove her innocence (as people would probably assume it was her who stopped the kill).

Neither we, nor the wolves, can know whether the Ranger is bluffing or not. Whichever way round it is, I'm surprised the wolves didn't try for the Seer, since their Ranger-candidate can always say either, "Hey, I was bluffing" or else, "I guess they thought I was bluffing," depending on circumstances.

Yes, that practically amounts to giving advice to the wolves... but then they should have thought of that themselves. I wonder what it means that they didn't take that option.

Now Roa has brought up some points against me, which I will answer.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Now that Nienna is in danger of getting lynched, Nerwen does a 180 and is suddenly unsure of who to vote for, after being on Nienna for two Days, arguing against Brinn in favor of Nienna's guilt, but one post from Inzil, who voted for Nienna himself, changes her mind suddenly?

I didn't "change my mind". I never said I was going to vote for Nienna, or even that I strongly suspected her. I brought up some things about her that I found suspicious, that's all.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

suggests that we lynch Morsul
What? As the Agent, in case you've forgotten, he counts as an innocent in our numbers vs the wolves.

I know. But lynching any baddie is better than lynching an innocent... and I didn't see enough reason to vote anyone else.

Plus, Brinn, Craydon and Nienna, at least, had expressed doubt as to whether he was really the Agent– and that doubt is something the wolves could use.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Her sudden change of heart on Nienna is remarkably suspicious, especially after trying so hard to bring others onto the idea Nienna being a wolf, beginning with suspicion on Day 1.

Again– you exaggerate, Roa. I did not "try so hard" to get convince people to think she was a wolf, and in fact I was taken aback when everyone started voting for her.

Look, give me some credit, will you? What good would it have done a wolf-me to make a throwaway vote then anyway? (Not that I intended it to be throwaway- there were still people left to vote then.)

I knew at the time my vote would bring me under scrutiny toDay– but I just didn't in conscience feel that I could vote for anyone else.

EDIT:fixed bolding; clarification.

[Brinniel]

I really shouldn't be posting now as I've been awake since 6am and could use some sleep. But I'm fed up enough by Loslote's twisted analysis of me, I feel I should say something now.

First off, I'm rather irritated in hearing her say I haven't contributed much of anything. No, I haven't been as loud as some players, but I've most certainly done more than just banter and complain. I've done as much contribution as RL will allow (which is in fact more than last game), and I find it frustrating that Loslote has the balls to say I haven't contributed at all before actually reading through my posts and realising I actually have. But that analysis post isn't much better. I read what she had to say about me, then looked back at my own posts and she's definitely twisting my words, whether she means to or not.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Post 1: Paranoid, suspects everyone.

You do know this was a banter post, right? And I don't see the harm in some bantering so long as it doesn't continue for several more posts. Actually, that post wasn't completely pointless. I sort of picked up on some comments that had been said (both on Day 1 of this game and also previous games) that I generally found to make the village sound a bit paranoid, and from there I created my own exaggerated, comedic spin on it. And hey, I had fun with it. I didn't think people would really believe I was that paranoid.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Post 2: Doesn't suspect SPAM, dislikes meta-game reasoning, doesn't like random voting.

I don't know what you're reading but I never said I didn't suspect Spm. I was merely stating that I don't think anyone should suspect him for meta-reasons. But at that time, it was still too early for me to think anything of him.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Post 4: Believes Pitchie but doesn't think he should have revealed; is sad to see SPAM go.

The way you highlight "is sad to see SPAM go" looks like you're trying to indicate that I looked like a wolf sad to see my mate go. When in reality I said I was sad to see him go purely for meta-reasons. I even said in the admin thread that one of the reasons I joined the game was because I was excited to see a veteran player like Spm playing again.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Post 9: is wary of Legate but not suspicious; wants to trust Roa but fears she is being fooled; doubts SPAM would try to lynch me if I were a wolf; doesn't particularly suspect Inzil; doesn't really have an opinion about Kitanna.

As you summarise my opinion of Inzil, you leave out some important information. I said while I don't particularly suspect him yet, I do want to keep a closer eye on him. Which indicates I was already worried about him at the time, but not enough to call him a suspect.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Post 10: Says the rangers may be bluffing, but doesn't think so; is uneasy about wilwa; agrees with Legate that Inzil wouldn't have agreed to Pitchie's not being a wolf, but then suspects him for saying he was innocent; finds Inzil 'creepy'.

Pitch already sort of went over this, but I think you may be misinterpreting what I said because you seem to indicate that in my comment I was saying that I thought Inzil sounded innocent in one part of his quote, but suspicious at the end of it. Which is not true. I suggest you go back and read my comment again because there was no part of it that was contradicting.

Roa did state that I took that quote out of context and suspecting him for that was in bad taste. I did pick up that quote after seeing Legate comment on it, and maybe that was an error on my part. I wasn't being careful about that sort of thing, and I admit a lot of that's simply due to the lack of time I have to thoroughly reread posts.

I really don't know what to think of all this. Is Loslote intentionally twisting my words, or is she just misinterpreting what I've said without meaning to? Hopefully I'll make better sense of this after some sleep and closer to deadline.

And might I add as a general statement, I'm quite glad I didn't vote either Nienna or Nog. The Nienna bandwagon looked very bad and I liked it even less that she wasn't around to defend herself. Yet, I wasn't sure enough about her innocence to save her and condemn Nogrod, who I was still unsure about, though slightly leaning towards innocent. If someone finds my vote for Inzil suspicious, then fine. But I don't think that it should be suspicious that I didn't vote for one of the top candidates. If I'm not comfortable voting either of them, why should I?

I like Roa's analysis of me much better and she summarises my quotes more accurately and doesn't twist my words. But I will comment on the time stamp issue so to clarify things. Just so you know, I'm typically a very slow poster (I think I already spent 30+ minutes on this one) and writer in general, which is something I've always found frustrating. It probably has to do with my perfectionist nature and it means I take twice as long as anyone else to do an analysis. Of course this means sometimes I have a delayed response to things, but I promise it has nothing to do with role. I think in the case of Pitch's reveal, he revealed around the same time I started to post. When I hit preview, I saw his post but I didn't want to have to rewrite the entire post I just did, so I just submitted what I had and decided to give my response to his reveal in the following post. In the past, I have edited my post in preview mode as new posts come in but then I find myself spending twice as long composing the post just so it stays up-to-date. But especially when it's closer to deadline, I sometimes just can't keep up with the floods of posts that are coming in.

Gah, now it's really really late and I probably will not be able to contribute much in the morning. Hopefully I won't oversleep and miss deadline (though what I'm even more concerned about is how I'm going to make it to the lab at a decent hour to finish schoolwork ). I am so lacking sleep now, so I do apologise in advance if I do happen to misinterpret anything myself in this post.

[Craydon1]

Well, while I haven't posted today due to doing a lot of stuff, I have had a chance to read most of the post. I've come to the conclusion that since most people consider me a "submarine" (which I find funny) the wolfs will probably come after me soon. So, with that in mind, who am I looking at? Well I personally think Hakon is a wolf since at the time he popped up and said, "Hi, I"m the priest" it was completely unneeded. So that leaves one more puppy hiding about.

Well I'm eliminating Brin based on a little study of human emotions. She got borderline ticked (or at least fooled me) in response to post about her. Heated emotions are a bad thing for someone that's trying to not draw attention to themselves.

I'm actually noticing that other than Nog(who seems to want to rip her throat out with his very non-wolf teeth), no one is analyzing Roa. I'm actually wandering what she would say if she did a analysis of herself? So I'm keeping my eye on her, but not voting for her. I also don't like how Los seems to eagerly agree with everything she says. Now this actually makes him a little creepier than her, because while they can't both be fuzzys lots of people seem to like Roa's analysis. So by vocally backing the person people like, than he can't possibly be a wolf, right?

So the person I'm currently the most focused on is probably Inzil. It would seem to me that he pops up to give mostly empty post that are worded in a manner that comes off as supportive, but not. I really can't tell who he actually supports and who he's truly going after and that sort of person is going to either be 1) a wolf or 2) soon to be eaten by a wolf.

Now I know this is my only post today, and by most of your standards I'm not active enough, but frankly I find a lot of everyone's post without meaning and not very thought out. As for the analysis, they seem to be very redundant. If you agree with the previous novel long post, just say "ditto" and move on. Maybe make a few changes when you disagree with something. Keep in mind this is just my opinion, and while this is the first time playing with you good folks (and don't get me wrong, this is fun) I've played the card game for years. I guess I just follow
the philosophy of just saying something when it is a honest contribution. So before you guys start saying this makes me look somehow wolfish, you should know that....tada, I'm the Changed. Which is also why I've been silent among the priest cluster.

So.... ++Inzil.

Goes to sleep after a 21 hour day waiting for someone to say I'm telling a lie, and they are the real Changed.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I really don't know what to think of all this. Is Loslote intentionally twisting my words, or is she just misinterpreting what I've said without meaning to?

Indeed. Lottie, you never said why you found Brinn suspicious "after looking through her posts". If this is simply due to things that sound suspicious in your version ("Paranoid, suspects everyone" "is sad to see SPAM go" etc.) then you're doing something pretty questionable, since you must know the original context.

If it's something else you've seen in Brinn's posts, you'll have to explain it, because it's anything but self-evident.

EDIT:X'd with Crayon.

[Nerwen]

Oh great. Another bloody reveal.

*headdesk*

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Craydon1

Well I'm eliminating Brin based on a little study of human emotions. She got borderline ticked (or at least fooled me) in response to post about her. Heated emotions are a bad thing for someone that's trying to not draw attention to themselves.

Doesn't stop werewolves from having them, though. In fact, overreacting can be a sign of a guilty conscience. I don't particularly suspect Brinn, mind you– I merely speak on general principles.

Originally Posted by Craydon1

As for the analysis, they seem to be very redundant. If you agree with the previous novel long post, just say "ditto" and move on. Maybe make a few changes when you disagree with something. Keep in mind this is just my opinion, and while this is the first time playing with you good folks (and don't get me wrong, this is fun) I've played the card game for years. I guess I just follow
the philosophy of just saying something when it is a honest contribution.

Crayon, in answer to your criticism– look, I don't even know how you play the card game. We've found that in this version, at least, it's better not to rely on any one person's analysis, for a number of reasons.

Now, look– why did you reveal?!

[wilwarin538]

Here for an hour or so before going to church...just reading.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Seeing the last posts, well you Roa took the words out of my desktop... a dream on either wilwa or Hakon is basically a dream wasted. If we just remember to take care of that duo in time that is.

But that time is not toDay as the next Night will still be crucial: the real ranger may have a chance to protect the seer. So let's not risk lynching the ranger to give the wolves free rein on the coming Night.

Sorry wilwa / Hakon if this sounds rude... but in the end we're fairly certain one of you is a wolf and from the village standpoint we need to lynch the wolf. So the real ranger will face the danger of being lynched but we shouldn't waste the dream on you as it is 50-50. With everyone else the odds are a lot weaker.

Exactly, so I don't know why people keep saying Pitch should dream one of us, he's only got a couple left, he should not waste them.

Oh Crayon, why oh why would you do that? A revealed hunter is difficult, cause the wolves may not want to risk killing you incase you've chosen on of them, or they may kill you and you could take an innocent down with you. It's always difficult being a hunter (I was one last game) but a revealed hunter is even more difficult. And right now I don't think it was needed.

So out of those being talked about. Inzil looks fine to me, as does Roa and Lottie. Nerwen somehow has managed to go under my radar, which is weird. Legate seems like normal Legate to me. So does Brinn. Hmm, so I'm nowhere. Everyone just looks good/normal to me. I don't have time to look closely, which is madening.

I'm gonna be honest here and say that I just have time to look through Roa's analises, I know I should do my own and I wish I had the time, but I'm in a crazy rush so this is all I can do. I want my vote to be atleast somewhat informed.

[wilwarin538]

So I read through those super fast, which I feel aweful about but I have no other choice. Something Roa said about Brinn saying Morsul could be an ord stuck out so I went to find the post:

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Obviously Morsul isn't the real seer since he gave up on his act. And I would've said anyway that I don't believe him. For one thing, if Pitch was a wolf sacrificing another to look good, I don't think he would've chosen to sacrifice Spm...anyway it wouldn't be a smart move period to sacrifice on Day One. So is Morsul the agent or a wolf? If he's a wolf, he just blew it for his team; but we can't count out the possibility. Which means at some point in the future we'll probably need to lynch him so not to let the risk of a wolf getting away. Geez, for all we know Morsul could just be an ordo who doesn't know what he's doing. He didn't know how to vote properly yesterDay, so is it possible he doesn't know you're not supposed to fake reveal if innocent? It seems unlikely, but I don't know..

That whole thing really bugs me. I mean it's not completely unlikely that an ordo would reveal in order to protect a gifted, but Morsul doesn't do it in a way that could really be useful, and for a new player to try something like that as an ord, that seems unlikely. Maybe if it was someone who's played alot and could pull it off better, but I don't think that's the case here and I really don't see how Brinn could find that possible.

I know this is flimsy, and trust me that's driving me nuts, but I don't have anything concrete on anyone and this just stuck out to me. If I manage to still be alive tomorrow and Brinn is too I'll look more closely at her but for now I really just have to vote and this is all that stood out for me. Sorry.

++Brinn

Really have to run now, big rush. Good luck!!

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I didn't "change my mind". I never said I was going to vote for Nienna, or even that I strongly suspected her. I brought up some things about her that I found suspicious, that's all.

Oh?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

What do you make of Nienna and her attempts to make out that Morsul wasn't "really" impersonating the Dreamer? Firstly she says she wasn't sure whether Morsul had actually revealed, and when I quoted the post in which he said "I'm the Dreamer", she suggests that it was just a joke (which it rather clearly wasn't).

Now, granted, Morsul seems to have a sufficiently shaky grasp of the rules that you couldn't 100% rule out him being an ordo who didn't understand what he was doing
– except, by that point he had basically confessed to being the Agent. (Whether he is that, or a wolf, remains to be seen.) I'm thinking– when a cobbler is exposed, who, besides the cobbler himself, has most reason to be dismayed?

EDIT:X'd with Lottie.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I would. Even a very confused ordo should have realised that he would only be getting the (presumed) real Dreamer killed if he succeeded. I mean, along with repeatedly denouncing "the impostor" Pitchwife, he also urged the Ranger not to protect him (#166). Does that sound like a misguided ordo trying to draw fire from the real Seer to you? Really?

Or possibly he really does think he's allowed to switch sides.

But of course, if he's just an ordo, then the false Priest– whichever it is– might be the real Agent. In which case if the real Priest were to die toNight, there'd be no call for us to lynch the impostor next Day...

You see why I'm getting worried about Nienna and her "if one of them's a wolf" business?

(emphasis mine) That looks like suspicion to me.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And you see, I'm now second-guessing myself on Nienna, for the same reasons the Inzil gives.

But who to vote for, then?

If you were second guessing yourself on her, that implies that you intended to vote for her. To ask who to vote for at this time means that you had just then decided not to vote Nienna.

I know. But lynching any baddie is better than lynching an innocent... and I didn't see enough reason to vote anyone else.

Plus, Brinn, Craydon and Nienna, at least, had expressed doubt as to whether he was really the Agent– and that doubt is something the wolves could use.

And you suspected Nienna for expressing that doubt.

Again– you exaggerate, Roa. I did not "try so hard" to get convince people to think she was a wolf, and in fact I was taken aback when everyone started voting for her.

Look, give me some credit, will you? What good would it have done a wolf-me to make a throwaway vote then anyway? (Not that I intended it to be throwaway- there were still people left to vote then.)

You had been on her since Day 1. You pointed her out to others. You never came out and directly said you suspected her, but it's plainly there for anyone to see. Perhaps you thought that by not making direct statements you could claim that you never really suspected her at all.

I knew at the time my vote would bring me under scrutiny toDay– but I just didn't in conscience feel that I could vote for anyone else.

EDIT:fixed bolding; clarification.

Had you admitted to your suspicion of Nienna, and then acknowledged your change of heart because of what Wilwa did, I may have believed you. But outright denying that you ever suspected her when she was the only person you bothered to bring points against? I think I found a wolf.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I like Roa's analysis of me much better and she summarises my quotes more accurately and doesn't twist my words. But I will comment on the time stamp issue so to clarify things. Just so you know, I'm typically a very slow poster (I think I already spent 30+ minutes on this one) and writer in general, which is something I've always found frustrating. It probably has to do with my perfectionist nature and it means I take twice as long as anyone else to do an analysis. Of course this means sometimes I have a delayed response to things, but I promise it has nothing to do with role. I think in the case of Pitch's reveal, he revealed around the same time I started to post. When I hit preview, I saw his post but I didn't want to have to rewrite the entire post I just did, so I just submitted what I had and decided to give my response to his reveal in the following post. In the past, I have edited my post in preview mode as new posts come in but then I find myself spending twice as long composing the post just so it stays up-to-date. But especially when it's closer to deadline, I sometimes just can't keep up with the floods of posts that are coming in.

Alright, I figured it was something like that.
[/QUOTE]

Originally Posted by Craydon1

tada, I'm the Changed. Which is also why I've been silent among the priest cluster.

So.... ++Inzil.

Goes to sleep after a 21 hour day waiting for someone to say I'm telling a lie, and they are the real Changed.

Oh, sweetie... the changed is supposed to get killed. That's how you do your job. Though on the brightside, this means that wolves are unlikely to kill you. So I imagine you're hunting Inzil toNight. We'll see how that goes. This could work out quite well for us.

And hey, as long as there isn't a counter reveal, we have another known on our list. And if there is another counter reveal, well, we found our last wolf.

I probably just cross-posted with a bunch.