WW LX - Mortal Men, doomed to die

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

If Sally is lying, how is Lhuna still definitely a wolf?

Case 1: Sally is truthful. I believe Nogrod to be the Seer - this case is improbable. However, should this be the true case, then obviously Lhuna was dreamt by Sally-seer as a Wraith.

Case 2: Sally is an Ordo, lying to protect Nogrod-seer. In this case, you are right; Sally could not know for sure that Lhuna is a wolf. However, there is no reason for Sally to make such a claim without some sort of knowledge. In this case, Lhuna is still much more likely to be a wolf than an innocent simply because it would be A: suicidal and B: insanely stupid for Sally to claim such for no reason (and she's not insanely stupid, nor is she suicidal as far as I know).

Case 3: Sally is a Wraith, lying to protect another Wraith or attempting to undermine Nogrod-seer. In this case, calling out Lhuna as a Wraith is, in the most probable case, a way to both make Sally look innocent and back up her claim as Seer and sacrifice an already-suspected comrade. Also to be noted is that, should Lhuna actually turn out innocent once lynched, we would immediately proceed to lynch Sally the day after and, as I have already said, Sally's not suicidal.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Why would she then claim Lhuna is a wolf if she doesn't know it? Any ideas Shasta? Why didn't she say X is innocent or take anyone already dead innocent to be one of her "dreams"? Why is she for lynching someone she is not sure of if an innocent - weith the false pretext of being the seer?

Now do you have a reason for your claim? Why should Lhuna be lynched?

EDIT:X'd with Brinn X2

In all three of the cases possible (as I posted above), Lhuna is much more likely to be a wolf than an innocent. Either Lhuna or Sally is going to be lynched today; I simply say that it's more efficient to lynch Lhuna (the probable Wraith) instead of Sally (the possible Wraith).

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I hope you Wilwa have time toDay as you're a known innocent. So everyone can trust there's no malice in your analysis or any thoughts you give.

I should, I'll be popping on randomly for the next few hours, but then I need to sleep. But in the morning I'll have like 4-5 hours straight for me to be on, my vote will be early but I should still be able to contribute quite a bit.

I need to read everything over again, I'm so confused....but I'm backing with Nogrod, so Sally is freaking me out. But it is possible that she could be innocent and trying to take the attention off the real seer, it's a little odd but definitely not impossible. I just think it's improbable.

So yeah...I will be back, but don't expect most of participation until about 9:30 am EST (GMT -4), which is a good 8 hours before the deadline.

[wilwarin538]

One more thing....I don't quite understand why everyone seems to be assuming Lhuna is guilty. Did I miss something??

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nienna

She made a seer dream list and said who was guilty and who was innocent so far and she said she has a role but she did not say what that role was. By reading her post it can be inferred that she is the Seer but I would believe her more if she said openly that she is the seer. Does that make sense?

It makes perfect sense but is not the issue: sending a seer list (who was dreamt at which Night) and saying it out aloud "I'm the seer" is the same thing.

Originally Posted by Nienna

I've been getting evil vibes from Sally for some time now and I've been keeping my eye on her but a seer reveal now seems like it would be too risky for one of the wolves.

Not if Lhuna is her mate and she thence would make herself good / make Lhuna look good if she was caught.

Or just plain counting - here I look at Shasta's sudden inspiration of seeing a need to lynch Lhuna toDay.

If we make it wrong toDay - and if the ranger misses the next Night - it will be 5-3 toMorrow and the sheer voting-power of the ringwraiths will carry it as we probably can't hold our ranks as innocents as we don't know the situation unlike they do.

Originally Posted by Shasta

#310 - Nogrod considers Lhuna a "wolf by implication"... which makes me wonder why he's so keen to vote for Sally instead. Why vote a possible wolf when you already admit you have a probable wolf?

Just because of that.

A) a wolf by implication is much less than finding out someone is lying (and not lying for good but looking forwards to kill someone she can't know is innocent or a baddie - unless she is a wolf knowing the other) and therefore - according to that lie - someone might be a wolf "by implication" but the first culprit is the one posing as the seer and claiming to be able to kill when she's not in the position of doing that. Yeah, only I know why she can't be it for sure. But I think I have made ten times the case why a reasonable person should not believe her.
B) Because you - whom I suspect at least as much as I do suspect Sally - seem to defend the liar so consistently.


Just to answer...

Originally Posted by Shasta

#81 - Nogrod thinks that Lhuna could be "a wolf playing it consistently & intelligently", but thinks she deserves to play more than those innocents who do nothing (don't think I didn't catch that, Nog.)

Easy. On Day1 someone actually plays unlike some others who just hunker down and either do not post at all or just post one post saying "let's catch the wolves". I would trade any first kind of player to any latter anytime - whatever their role is.

This is a game and game needs to be played. I don't care if I'm on the winning or the losing side but I want to play. Those who just hide in the shadows make games only lousy.

I don't want to throw a dice. That's soo booring! You can do it at your home and alone.

I want to play werewolf eg. a game of accusation, deceit, suspicion, rhetorics... with others playing the same game.

Catch it now?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Implicitly. You're being contrary; no more, no less.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Oh, and -

Originally Posted by Nogrod

B) Because you - whom I suspect at least as much as I do suspect Sally - seem to defend the liar so consistently.

How many errors do you count in that statement? I count... two.

1. You suspect me. Why? I can't have given you anything to suspect me on - I haven't been able to post. The only reason you say you suspect me is because you don't like that I haven't been able to participate as much as I normally do, Nogrod, admit it.

2. I defend the liar so consistently. ...Wait, consistently? I make one post offering an alternate explanation as to why Sally has been saying what she's been saying - one, mind you, that you seem to have rejected out-of-hand - and not only do you say I'm "defending" her, but that I'm doing it "consistently"? With one post? Rethink that, maybe, and get back to me.

[Nogrod]

Looking at the insistence of Sally and Shasta - the most suspicious people around to my view - I'm thinking we should not lynch Lhuna.

But I would be happy to vote either of them. A wolf down I'd say.

I'm not saying Lhuna is an innocent, but I think she is a lot less suspicious than these two. (If Sally is a wolf then Lhuna might be one as well - but that's only "by implication", not suspicious as such on that issue - there are other things though but let's think of them later *needs to go to sleep finally*)

EDIT: Blah: I seem to have missed some actual arguing... Sorry. I'll comment on those.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Can I just point out, Nogrod, that you're making absolutely no sense?

For one thing, you call me one of the most suspicious people around - a fact I've already addressed. For another, you think Lhuna innocent (which, in itself, could make sense under specific circumstances), but then you turn right around and say that she could be a wolf, by implication, but only if Sally is a wolf? When Sally has been proclaiming from the rooftops that Lhuna is a wolf?

[Nogrod]

In a comment to your #321 I had basically raised those issues in my #306. Although I know she is not the seer which you naturally can't know.

But I need to ask you Shasta a question.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Sally is an Ordo, lying to protect Nogrod-seer. In this case, you are right; Sally could not know for sure that Lhuna is a wolf.However, there is no reason for Sally to make such a claim without some sort of knowledge. In this case, Lhuna is still much more likely to be a wolf than an innocent simply because it would be A: suicidal and B: insanely stupid for Sally to claim such for no reason (and she's not insanely stupid, nor is she suicidal as far as I know).

Now what kind of knowledge might that be that an ordo would have? What kind of other "knowledge" is there around? Why are you speculating with impossibilities?

Originally Posted by Shasta

Sally is a Wraith, lying to protect another Wraith or attempting to undermine Nogrod-seer. In this case, calling out Lhuna as a Wraith is, in the most probable case, a way to both make Sally look innocent and back up her claim as Seer and sacrifice an already-suspected comrade.

If Sally is a baddie we should lynch the person she claims to be a baddie? Because Sally is not suicidal? If you think Sally is trying to make her mate in crime look bad to make herself look good why don't you say let's lynch Sally first - and let's consider Lhuna then if Sally turns out to be a wolf? Why are yu so keen to lynch the "implication" (eg. whom Sally suspects) over from who actually says something she can't know for sure (unless she is a baddie which should be reason enough to lynch her)?

Also to be noted is that, should Lhuna actually turn out innocent once lynched, we would immediately proceed to lynch Sally the day after and, as I have already said, Sally's not suicidal.

Why the marching order should be this? Sally lies. If she's not a baddie she can't have "any sort of knowledge" on her.

You have been counting, haven't you? If we lynch an innocent toDay you wolves have a much better future, but if we get one of you toDay your future looks very grim indeed. So let's try Lhuna first, right?

Funny, I was quite sure Lhuna was evil a few hours ago, but thanks to your campaign Shasta I'm beginning to think the contrary. Not because you suspect Lhuna but becasue you support Sally so heavily...


Sorry Shasta: I'm still "late" with my arguments. I'll try to catch up...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

You seem to be fixated on the fact that Sally's claim to be the Seer is absolute proof of her guilt, Nogrod. I'm supporting her because I think there's a chance she could be an ordo attempting to divert attention from the real Seer, there's no one else around to support her, and you seem to be unwilling to consider any theories but the one you've chosen.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

In answer to your question, Nogrod, I think you should be asking Sally that question, because I have no idea. There ought to be something, though; it's quite poor play if she's accusing Lhuna for no reason. All I'm saying is that there is some reason that Sally is accusing Lhuna so heavily, and that it might not be an evil one.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Either Lhuna or Sally is going to be lynched today

That sure you are? How about we lynched you indeed?

I simply say that it's more efficient to lynch Lhuna (the probable Wraith) instead of Sally (the possible Wraith).

Now where do you pick these labels of "probable" and "possible" - and the easy-going evaluation between them? Do you have a reason for that order of procedures? What might it be? I still haven't seen your case against Lhuna which would be better than cases made against Sally. Indeed I think I do not remember a single point you would have made... (maybe you have, but you sure don't triumph with those).

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Sally is freaking me out. But it is possible that she could be innocent and trying to take the attention off the real seer, it's a little odd but definitely not impossible. I just think it's improbable.

"Possible", yes. But how "probable" is it that as an ordo she decided she would act like knowing that Lhuna is a baddie as she didn't know it (there's no way for an ordo to know that)? She could have easily said that she had "dreamt" of someone already dead in Lhuna's place, if she were an innocent. But her wish to kill someone she shouldn't know about if she were true innocent looks pretty bad. More bad than the person she wishes to kill - even if she turned out wolf as well which I still find plausible (otherwise there would be no point in her fake-reveal).

Originally Posted by Wilwa

I don't quite understand why everyone seems to be assuming Lhuna is guilty. Did I miss something??

Well, Sally could play a game naming Lhuna (her mate in crime) as a wolf and thence whichever way the voting goes another one of them would look good as the other was a baddie. A cool act by wolves and perfectly reasonable when only two Days separate them from victory if they play it right (there confidence with someone who delivered us a wolf would be worth their weight in gold).

But happily we're alert here.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Implicitly. You're being contrary; no more, no less.

Sorry, I have no idea where / what you are referring to.

Originally Posted by Shasta

The only reason you say you suspect me is because you don't like that I haven't been able to participate as much as I normally do, Nogrod, admit it.

No I won't admit that. Your activity on Day1 was really bad and I would have loved to lynch you for that but toDay - well lately - you have been playing indeed. I do appreciate it! Indeed I feel you've posted more than in the last game. Maybe we need an impartial judge for this "attendance" if you feel different.

But my problem with you is the way you try to save Sally (whom I think now as the #1 wolf around) for whichever cost.

Originally Posted by Shasta

For another, you think Lhuna innocent (which, in itself, could make sense under specific circumstances), but then you turn right around and say that she could be a wolf, by implication, but only if Sally is a wolf?

I don't darn know about Lhuna! I did suspect her from Day1 already and do even now, but then again if you and Sally are wolves then the third could be Brinn who's your last fellow... or basically anyone...

I don't think Lhuna innocent. As an innocent myself I can't afford thinking someone innocent without a very good cause. So why do you try to make the impression I think Lhuna innocent? Look at my posts backwards and you see I suspect her every noew and then.

Suspecting someone more than X does not mean one doesn't suspect X. Basic logic.

But I do see Sally and you a lot more suspicious than her - even if we lynch Sally toDay and she turns out a wolf I would say it like 50-50 with you and Lhuna, looking at your insistence with Sally maybe 70-30 for you to be honest. But yes, she's third in my list.

But really:

Originally Posted by Shasta

When Sally has been proclaiming from the rooftops that Lhuna is a wolf?

How about this one:

Originally Posted by Sally's second post toDay

Okay, so here's what I know.

Brinn: innocent
Nog: innocent
Legate: wolf
Lhuna: wolf

So where might that have been? No... it was not from the rooftops... she just carefully hinted it from between the lines.

Give up mate.

EDIT: X'd with Shasta x2

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I think you should be asking Sally that question, because I have no idea.

Which question?

Please mate, this is not the first time. What are you referring to? You can't think others will run through the whole thread to find out what are you asking to answer your questions...

Originally Posted by Shasta

You seem to be fixated on the fact that Sally's claim to be the Seer is absolute proof of her guilt

You don't seem to read the thread now do you? I have said this maybe ten times and this will be the last one.

An ordo pretending to be the seer to save the real one would not place another player into danger by claiming she's a wolf. That's far from absolute, but a fairer deduction than some others.

Had she made her list like this:

Okay, so here's what I know.

Brinn: innocent
Nog: innocent
Legate: wolf
XXX: innocent

I might have believed her trying to help. But now in the place of the XXX she had Lhuna as a wolf which she can't know as she's no seer.

So she wanted to get Lhuna lynched although she didn't know what she is. That is no innocent behaviour.

Lhuna maybe a fellow baddie and this is all an opera trying to fool us. But it's Sally we should lynch first as she's the one who clearly lies / tries to fool us. We should consider Lhuna after that.

If you don't understand this argument now, then don't.

Off to bed.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well. I just thought of something, in any case. I'll throw out on the table that a Sally-Wraith might try to lynch a Lhuna-Ranger during the day, but that's the only explanation I can find for an evil-Sally doing what she did.

I'll be around to vote tomorrow, but I'm going to sit down and shut up because all that's come of me being active today is I've been A) chastised for not being active during the first few days and B) suspected for being active today and bringing an alternative idea to the table.

[Nerwen]

Greetings, all. Oh, and welcome to the "known innocent" club, Wilwa. Sorry for suspecting you.

Well, toDay has been... interesting.

I have only skimmed the thread so far (will re-read more thoroughly when I have a moment) but here are my thoughts so far:

Sally is surely a wraith.

1. If she were an innocent trying to draw fire from Nogrod she would not have named Lhuna as a baddie.

2. If her scenario– that she was the Seer and Nogrod an innocent impersonating the Seer– were correct, Nogrod would have confessed by now.

3. Everyone– apart from Nogrod– is either defending her or expressing confusion. Is it likely that not one of the wolves would take advantage of the most perfect chance to lynch an innocent in WW history?

Shasta is probably her fellow

He seems desperate to save her... and knowing he's pretty smart, I don't see how he can honestly believe his own argument. (It relies, after all, on ordo-Sally "somehow" knowing for certain that Lhuna is evil.)

Presumably, the wraith-team thought Sally was likely to be dreamed last Night, and she decided to go down fighting.

Here's the puzzle, though: why did she not accuse Nogrod of being a wraith? It seems to me that that's the only way her plan could have worked.

Did she think he would believe her a well-intentioned ordo, and go along with her in the hope of surviving another Night? But then, why say she dreamt Lhuna? (As I said, an ordo would not do this.)

And what is Lhuna?

Now, the talk has been that maybe she's the wraith sacrifice, and they're hoping she'll get lynched and thus buy Sally some credibility. That would rely on the wraiths killing Nogrod toNight... and on Nogrod going along with Sally toDay. (And also requires the third step of Sally being able to convince us ToMorrow that she really was just an ordo trying to save the Seer.)

Not a plan I'd have cared to try myself.

Or is the whole scheme simply to get an innocent Lhuna lynched, instead of guilty Sally? But again, how could it work once Sally has declared Nogrod innocent?

*brain hurting*

EDIT: X'd with Shasta.
EDIT2:clarification.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I lied. I have a response to Nerwen.

Why would I be desperate to save Sally if she and I were both wraiths, Nerwen? Given that she'll eventually be lynched, that would put a glaring spotlight on me.

And can I say again, I'm not "desperate to save Sally". I simply think there could be an alternate explanation to her actions.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Well. I just thought of something, in any case. I'll throw out on the table that a Sally-Wraith might try to lynch a Lhuna-Ranger during the day, but that's the only explanation I can find for an evil-Sally doing what she did.

And your explanation for a good Sally doing what she did is...? And don't just repeat your suggestion that she has "some sort of knowledge". If she's an ordo, she can't. The only way you can believe her is by not believing Nogrod... and you say you do believe him!

EDIT: X'd with Shasta.

[satansaloser2005]

Can't talk much now -long day and all that- but before I go to bed.

Everyone (or at least some of you) seem to be forgetting the possibility that I am the seer, Nog is faking (for the good of the village), and that we really should be working together, not against each other, in this matter.


In other news, I'm going to bed. Vote for Lhuna. That is all. Enjoy yourselves until I get back, and I will have further commentary when I'm awake.

[satansaloser2005]

Oh, and to add. I honestly believe that Nog has nothing but good intentions for the village, so if you believe me trust him. Well, at least trust that he's innocent.


Really going to bed now. Good night all!

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Sally

Everyone (or at least some of you) seem to be forgetting the possibility that I am the seer, Nog is faking (for the good of the village), and that we really should be working together, not against each other, in this matter.

Sorry, but if Nogrod was faking for the good of the village, why would he be considering lynching you? It's possible for an ordo to fake something in order to confuse the wolves, but no one with good intentions would continue to do so to the point where it'd misdirect the Day's lynch. And if Nogrod was just an ordo, then he would know you were the real seer and wouldn't be accusing you of wolvery.

I'm a bit concerned with this sudden suspicion being thrown at Shasta. He's made a weak argument maybe, and with his defenses he seems to only be digging himself deeper. But I've seen an innocent Shasta get lynched for that before. I can understand what he's trying to say, and perhaps his words just got misinterpreted. His latest posts look to me more like they're coming from a frustrated innocent than anything.

I won't consider voting for Lhuna until she posts. She hasn't shown up yet, and I'd like to hear her reaction to all this. Meanwhile, Sally only looks worse to me with that latest posts.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And your explanation for a good Sally going what she did is...? And don't just repeat your suggestion that she has "some sort off knowledge". If she's an ordo, she can't. The only way you can believe her is by not believing Nogrod... and you say you do believe him!

EDIT: X'd with Shasta.

Dearheart, I already said to Nogrod's rather more aggressive version of that same statement, "Ask Sally." I already said I don't claim to know the reason behind Sally's actions. All I'm saying is that there is one, and it's not necessarily evil. I just hate that everyone's accusing Sally out of hand and not even considering the fact that she could be innocent when there is in fact an alternate explanation.

Although I will confess I'm a little irritated that, given a chance to post, Sally said nothing about her reasoning. Here I am being accused of sticking my neck out for her; the least she could have done is be a little more forthright.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Why would I be desperate to save Sally if she and I were both wraiths, Nerwen? Given that she'll eventually be lynched, that would put a glaring spotlight on me.

Numbers. It's at the stage where it makes quite a difference whether a wraith gets lynched "eventually" or now.

Now, the question of Brinniel–

I don't want to jump to conclusions here, but it strikes me that #341 (while sounding quite reasonable) is consistent with what Brinn would do if the remaining wraiths were herself and Shasta:

1. Throw Sally under the bus.

2. Try to save Shasta.

3. Try to make the village focus again on Lhuna as a lynch-candidate.

EDIT: X'd with Shasta.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I just hate that everyone's accusing Sally out of hand and not even considering the fact that she could be innocent when there is in fact an alternate explanation.

O my beloved, the fact is that I asked you for this "alternative explanation" in the post you quote... and it seems not to be forthcoming.

Do tell me what it is, my darling.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Pearl of my heart, I suppose I haven't stated it in so many words, but it's quite apparent if you read between the lines of what I've been saying. I suppose I could have been remiss in that fact.

Put simply, my darling, it's that an innocent-Sally had a pressing reason to claim Seer when Nogrod is a much better candidate, and the same reason for accusing Lhuna so. As for that reason, you would have to ask Sally.

I will say that the longer Sally withholds this reason, the more inclined I am to side with the majority...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Put simply, my darling, it's that an innocent-Sally had a pressing reason to claim Seer when Nogrod is a much better candidate, and the same reason for accusing Lhuna so. As for that reason, you would have to ask Sally.

But, light of my life, what– other than her indeed being the real Seer– could this possibly be? And yet you say you believe Nogrod.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But, light of my life, what– other than her indeed being the real Seer– could this possibly be? And yet you say you believe Nogrod.

Beloved one, I must confess all manner of ideas have passed through my head. Perhaps Sally is a secret role. Perhaps Sally's attempting to be helpful. Perhaps Lhuna-wraith mis-sent a PM. I really can't fathom her reasoning. I simply wish not to exclude alternative explanations out of hand.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

"If we make it wrong toDay - and if the ranger misses the next Night - it will be 5-3 toMorrow and the sheer voting-power of the ringwraiths will carry it as we probably can't hold our ranks as innocents as we don't know the situation unlike they do."

The thing that does not make sense in all the scenarios is why you where left alive. . . If Sally is a wolf, it seems like a very bad strategy not to kill you and then make a seer claim her self. If they had just killed you one of the nights Sally would live, but by making this claim she is sure to die.

There is also the possebility that Sally is the seer and deliberatly chose to give wrong information about Nogrod. so that the wraith would think her an ordo. That way she could get 1 wraith lynched (Lhuna) and one more dream before revealing that Nogrod was a baddie.

You see. . .no possible explenation makes sense. No matter which one we chose it will involve what seems as poor tactics from the wolves or weird choises made by the seer.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Beloved one, I must confess all manner of ideas have passed through my head. Perhaps Sally is a secret role.

...Secret cobbler? Village Suicide?

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Perhaps Sally's attempting to be helpful.

My treasure, the reasons why her actions are anything but helpful have already been stated several times.

The point is, if Sally were an ordo trying some weird ploy (whether to save the Seer, or to test Lhuna like Kent did with Nilp last game, or whatever) she would surely have backed down by now.

And if she's the real Seer, and Nogrod an ordo, he would have backed down.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Lhuna-wraith mis-sent a PM.

Then Sally ought to have dropped out of the game.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

really can't fathom her reasoning. I simply wish not to exclude alternative explanations out of hand.

Of course, of course... but the real question is: can we afford not to lynch her now?

EDIT: X'd with Rune.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

There is also the possebility that Sally is the seer and deliberatly chose to give wrong information about Nogrod. so that the wraith would think her an ordo. That way she could get 1 wraith lynched (Lhuna) and one more dream before revealing that Nogrod was a baddie.

That's suicidal, plus it carries a tremendous risk of leaving a Nogwraith as a "known innocent", thus dooming the village.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

see. . .no possible explenation makes sense. No matter which one we chose it will involve what seems as poor tactics from the wolves or weird choises made by the seer.

Indeed. But, as I said, I don't see how we can not lynch her now.

My guess at the moment is that Sally-wraith simply acted on impulse at the start of the Day, and hadn't thought things through properly.

[Nienna]

As I mentioned before I'm going to be away for the rest of toDay so I will vote way early.

++Sally

She has been acting all weird... which might just be her normal playing style but it still rubbed me the wrong way. She is also being very criptic. I also think that we would learn the most from her death.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Oh, and to add. I honestly believe that Nog has nothing but good intentions for the village, so if you believe me trust him. Well, at least trust that he's innocent.

What??? But if you're the seer and he's just an ord, which seems to be what you're suggesting, then how did he possibly know Legate was a wolf? Making such a claim would be a pretty odd thing for an ord to do. Which is why I'm not believing you.

Sorry, just saw that and had to comment.....I just find it so rediculous....I'll be back, I wasn't quite done reading yet....

[wilwarin538]

K....wow.

So what I know (no, this is not another seer reveal ) :

Nog: seer
Nerwen: ord
Me: ord
Sally: confusing

Ok.....so I don't agree with Shasta, but I understand where he's coming from, so I'm not jumping on thinking him guilty right now.

So most likely I will be voting for Sally. I need to go eat some breakfast, then I will be back and make a nice little list.

Oh, and the lovey dovey talk between Shasta and Nerwen is totally cracking me up.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

To me these two scenarios are the most likely:

Nogrod is the seer and the wraiths were stupid not to kill him, Sally is Ordo or Wraith.

and

Nogrod is a wraith who sacrificed a mate and Sally is an ordo trying to help the seer.

. . .wait. . .forget it, the only thing I can conclude is that the scenario Sally = Seer, Nogrod = Wraith is not likely.

My problem is that I can easily see Nogrod as a wraith bluffing, but the same goes for Sally.

[Eönwë]

Woah... *head explodes*

Ok, I'm going to have to reread toDay's talk before I can say much.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

To me these two scenarios are the most likely:

Nogrod is the seer and the wraiths were stupid not to kill him, Sally is Ordo or Wraith.

and

Nogrod is a wraith who sacrificed a mate and Sally is an ordo trying to help the seer.

By trying to get Lhuna killed, when she cannot know her role?

EDIT: X'd with Steve.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

By trying to get Lhuna killed, when she cannot know her role?

yes

[Nerwen]

And you consider this to be one of the two most likely scenarios?

EDIT: X'd with Rune.

[Eönwë]

Ok, though, before I do, some things people have said which I would just like to comment on...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I don't think Lhuna innocent. As an innocent myself I can't afford thinking someone innocent without a very good cause. So why do you try to make the impression I think Lhuna innocent? Look at my posts backwards and you see I suspect her every noew and then.

Ok, this just seems a little strange to me... if he wasn't the seer (well, as far as we know), I would definately be going after him. Seems like a slip. Why would he be suspecting Lhuna every now and then? Like he's trying to distance himself from her. Nogrod being the relentless WW player that he is would either mention her as seeming more innocent, or would go after her, at least a little bit (because she wasn't his main target).


Also, the logic here seems a little bit strange:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, the talk has been that maybe she's the wraith sacrifice, and they're hoping she'll get lynched and thus buy Sally some credibility. That would rely on the wraiths killing Nogrod toNight... and on Nogrod going along with Sally toDay. (And also requires the third step of Sally being able to convince us ToMorrow that she really was just an ordo trying to save the Seer.)

What would a wraith-Sally have to gain from just being looked upon as a a "lucky innocent", who just happened to be right about Lhuna? It isn't as much of a safeguard from lynching as the seer (and as Nogrod would be a proven seer in your scenario). Also it would lead her actions to be scrutinised much more by everyone else- look what happpens in the games where an innocent Shasta is right about the wolves.
Also, very risky, but then again, Sally is a risky player.


How about a crazy theory:
Nogrod, Nerwen (a "proven" innocent) and Sally/Shasta are all wolves and are just trying to confuse us. Nogrod puts Wilwa in the "proven innocent" category to gain the support of a true innocent (or possibly even a gifted- they're all still alive I believe).

Not very likely, but it's best to think of every option. If it is true, they're amazing.

I also don't like the fact that everyone seems to be agreeing with everyone, even though the general idea is shifting throughout the Day. Something doesn't seem right there.


Now for that reread...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And you consider this to be one of the two most likely scenarios?

It was a thought process and I chose not to delete my ideas after I partially discarded them. . .There are things that does not add up in every scenario, so I keep on changing my mind.

Anyways I am not going to reply again, if this is the way you intend to debate.