Tol-in-Gaurhoth LI: The Pain of Wargs

[Thinlómien]

Ok, Mr Swordsman of Shadows (or whatever is the proper translation), you have the honour of being the first one since you're around and talking with me.

Gwathalysis

Day1
#15 nothing of interest
#16 speculates about the rules - I don't quite get his point (a good start for an analysis, isn't it ), but he agrees with Sam and thinks there might come two traitors every Night in the first three Nights
#30 says to Kit he wasn't merely restating stuff
#73 expresses confusion over deadline
#86 votes Kath (no reasoning)

Day2
#93 summarises Day1 voting, doubts that Nog is a traitor (unless he was saving a fellow Brinn)
#96 explains his schedules (and kind of explains his vote too)
#117 suspects me for being giddy, wonders how probable it is that there's a newbie wolf
#119 greets newly arrived Diamond, asks where's Gaunt
#136 expresses his presence
#139 points out my words could be a sneaky werewolf tactic, wonders if Groin is trying to use reverse psychology considering himself and Gollum
#141 agrees (rather shockedly) with Nogrod that Groin has been talking almost solely about Nog during the Day
#178 expresses his presence
#186 votes Groin, reason: he dropped his suspicion of Nog as soon as it was questioned by others

Day3
#207 explains his schedules for the Day
#219 apologises for lack of time, votes Rune because his echoing of Legate's unfounded suspicion of Brinn is suspicious

Day4
#260 suspects he must look rather suspicious now, speculates about the number of wws remaining but thinks it's best to concentrate on just finding and lynching one at a time, says he's sick of lynching obvious people, says he may go after the quiet&unobtrusive like Di or Golly
#271 replies to me concerning Melkor's alignment
#272 says he thinks I'm right about Melkor being on the Wargs' side and that if Legate went after Gollum, he (G) is probably innocent
#281 asks for clarification for Gaunt's use of the word "warg"
#284 says his day1 vote for Kath was random, reconsiders voting Gollum based on all the Gollum-Legate stuff
#300 doesn't like Gaunt's self-assurance, says he's going to watch him the next Day, voted Gollum because he has become the default vote of the Day, doesn't even suspect him that much

Overall
Mostly, he actually gives me the imprssion of an ordinary villager. BUT there are a few note-worthy things. He does abnormally lot of "hi I'm here" posts and schedule explanations - he seems a little nervous. And furthermore, I don't like his vote yesterDay. It was too easy - he himself admits it, he doesn't bother to vote properly, but goes with the "default vote". Not very productive and somewhat suspicious. Also, he seems to have been navigating in the tides of this village almost too smoothly, which always makes me raise my eyebrows.

Well, we'll see how he stands compared to Gaunt and Di... (I will also examine the connections once I've analysed&summarised all the posts. I'm not sure how much I will get done now, though, it's getting late so I'm going to sleep at some phase...)

[Thinlómien]

Ok, I'm doing Di next... this should be a short one.

Day1
- didn't appear at all -

Day2
#118 pops in and explains absence
#142 explains and apologises for being busy
#160 votes Brinn, gives no reasoning

Day3
#200 jokingly suggests that quiet people murdered Nogrod, says Nog was an odd kill choice and thus possibly suspected of seerdom
#201 explains her schedules
#204 suggests that a lover couple consisting of me and Legate murdered Nogrod, it is a bit unclear whether she was serious or joking
#206 votes Legate, gives no grounds

Day4
#257 doesn't understand Brinn-Legate thing, suspects this village will fall into silence, says reading Rune's posts is in order
#270 understands my frustration, speaks about being time-limited, says it's silly only loud players get lynched, is leaning towards Gwath or Gollum, mentions Gaunt too
#285 says it's good to hear from Gaunt, votes Gollum (gives no specified reasoning)

Overall
I'm afraid there's not much to say. Her tone and playfulness seem innocentish, but I don't definitely like her habit of not giving reasons for her votes. It seems slippery and even quite wolvish. Could we please have explanations now? But all in all, there's really not much to say about Di - it could be either way. In order to evaluate her wolvishness better, I have to analyse Gaunt too and then investigate the Gwath-Di-Gaunt interaction triangle. This gal just gives too little to go on.

[Thinlómien]

If I'm not sleeping, I may as well analyse Gaunt too.

Day1
#25 speculates about the setting, says Sam's scenario of six wargs makes sense

Day2
#125 apologises for lack of participation, pities Sam, doesn't have any suspects
#127 debates on the nature of suspicion, says it would make sense for Nog to have killed Kit because then he'd be removing someone who could succesfully analyse his behaviour
#135 argues that Nogrod would try to play so that it'd be the best for him because he'd understand that the game works the best if everybody does their best to win
#145 is not going to vote Nog - wants more time to watch him and thinks Groin's case against him is flimsy
#147 is suspicious of Nogrod (who criticises silent people and attacks loud people) and thinks Groin suspects Nog for wrong reasons and rather single-mindedly yet necessarily isn't a wolf
#190 votes Groin

Day3
- didn't appear at all -

Day4
#273 apologises/explains absence, doesn't understand Melkor-Manwe thing nor why Shasta died, is inclined to vote Gollum because there have been vague suspicions towards him
#275 asks if it's probable that there are competing pairs of werewolves
#276 continues by asking if it's possible Legate thought Gollum was his archenemy
#279 summarises what has happened this far, presents a theory: two original wolves, Manwe&Melkor joined the game on Night3
#280 based on Kitanna's death, suspect Kath, Gwath and Gollum (she suspected them), thinks Gol and Kath could be fellows
#282 notes that Kath voted Gollum and Gwath voted Kath on Day1, so he would suspect a Gwath-Gollum duo
#283 clarifies his wording about wargs for Gwath
#288 expands on his theory mentiones in post 279, says it was Manwe's work to act as a job and Melkor's job to hunt him down and that now only two original wolves remain, says Nogrod died because he targeted Gollum and Rune died because he came up with some insights that troubled the wolves
#293 suspects Gollum and Gwath are remaining wolves and that either he himself or me will die on Night5, votes Gollum

Overall
He is a smart guy, no doubt, and seems innocentishly helpful and reasonable. But there are a few things that trouble me. He seems to be disturbingly aware about the rules and what happens in the game. It makes me a little suspicious. Also, he concentrates a lot in the rule talk - which is fine and useful, no doubt, but doesn't force him to actually suspect or support people. It troubles me that he voted Groin on Day3 even though he suspected Nogrod more - not that it matters per se as they were both innocent. Just an interesting tidbit.

My brain is in no state for starting to analyse any interactions now, nor will I force it to rank these three people's suspiciousness. That may well wait for tomorrow - I'll go to sleep now and I'll be back here well before the deadline.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Ok, Mr Swordsman of Shadows (or whatever is the proper translation),

[...]

**#300 doesn't like Gaunt's self-assurance, says he's going to watch him the next Day, voted Gollum because he has become the default vote of the Day, doesn't even suspect him that much

I translate it "Shadowblade." I don't know if that's right.

I only take issue with the ** part of your analysis. First, I said that I did suspect Gollum. Second, the overall interpretation of that post should be that even though I felt less than satisfied with voting against Gollum, hewas nonetheless the only player that I had any real grounds for suspecting, weak though they might be. I had given even less thought to the other players. Lastly, my comment regarding the village's defaulting to a Gollum-vote was written in cynicism.

[Diamond18]

Could we please have explanations now?

I suppose -- though it's nothing that's going to please you, I can tell already....

I haven't had time to read and re-read the thread and track patterns and do analysis -- some days I've barely managed to find time to show up at all. I really wanted to be in the Warg game but it came at a bad time for really stellar play. So I crammed my votes in when I had time (at the latest possible moment before the deadline, even though it turned out to be hours before deadline time) and I've never had noteworthy reasons for voting. Not that I was going to bother taking the time to type out as I was dashing out the door. Sometimes it was just outright eenie-meenie-minie-mo (Brinn) and flimsiest of half joking vague suspicions (Legate). Gollum was the first one I actually felt sure about, and that was more from reading other people's posts about him. Yeah, Werewolf Cliffnotes is a bad idea, apparently.

Well now that I've wasted some time on that which I could have spent on trying to make an informed vote choice... I just got done with a nine hour shift and I'm tired and want to go to bed and I have to vote. I won't be able to make it back before the deadline tomorrow.

++Gaunt

I don't really see Lommy's argument that Gwath is the most obvious choice today... Gaunt is a newbie and yet seemed to know a lot yesterDay about the game's workings. I don't know, at this point I'm inclined to mistrust his confidence.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Gaunt

Gwath: My suspicion is rapidly fading - given my drastically erroneous case made against Gollum and Gwath yesterday, it would have made sense for Gwath, if he was a wolf, to have lynched me or Thinlomien, who were making the strongest cases against him.

Ok, I think Gaunt is innocent. If he was a werewolf, he would be much more hesitant to change his opinion and then to tell everyone about it, particularly since there had been no immediate motivation for him to do so. What would he gain by removing a player at such short notice from his suspicion list? He only loses that voting option.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I kind of agree with this - or some of this at least - Gollum was the obvious choice yesterDay, yet we got wrong. Gwath would kind of seem the obvious choice toDay - so that's why I feel a bit bad about it.

Rubbish! Hardly anyone suspected me yesterDay. My name wasn't even mentioned more than once twice. In fact, over the course of this entire game, I have received a grand total of about two votes. This, of course, is what happens when "pretty much everyone suspected you." (I quote Lommy).

Why would Thinlomien make up strong stuff like this, only to be totally noncomittal in her analysis of me a few hours later?

Her 3 analyses concern me because of their overall uniformity. All 3 are almost exactly the same in that they carefully avoid making any irrectractable conclusions. It as if Lommy went and filed all the sharp points and interesting edges off before posting, with the result that they all make practically identical conclusions: The subject does a few suspicious things (which she relates), but her suspicions extend no farther than the degree of curiosity. So, while these analyses appear to condemn no one, they leave her a variety of voting options later on - and so, paradoxically, condemn everyone. She is afraid to commit.

++Thinlomien

Wolf #2 has to be either Di or Kath. I am leaning towards Di because while she has been extremely quiet, like Kath, she has clearly been more involved/engaged with the game - even if she's not saying anything. Kath's lack of participation is too extreme to be anything but a busy innocent.

If Gaunt turns out to be a werewolf, I am going to change my avatar.

[Thinlómien]

I don't like it all how Gwath jumps on me with rather questionable points. Looks rather furry to me...

Originally Posted by Gwath

I only take issue with the ** part of your analysis. First, I said that I did suspect Gollum. Second, the overall interpretation of that post should be that even though I felt less than satisfied with voting against Gollum, hewas nonetheless the only player that I had any real grounds for suspecting, weak though they might be. I had given even less thought to the other players. Lastly, my comment regarding the village's defaulting to a Gollum-vote was written in cynicism.

Point taken. I might not have understood it the way you did. At least I didn't catch the cynicism. It looked more like wolvish fatalism to me.

Originally Posted by Gwath

Rubbish! Hardly anyone suspected me yesterDay. My name wasn't even mentioned more than once twice. In fact, over the course of this entire game, I have received a grand total of about two votes. This, of course, is what happens when "pretty much everyone suspected you." (I quote Lommy)

That might be true. To be honest, I haven't checked. That was just the overall impression I got from yesterDay. It isn't necessarily correct. I find it more than questionable that you should make such an issue out of it. You look like you're just grasping at straws to justify your vote for any innocent player toDay, and maybe even convince others to join. Doesn't look good to me. At all.

Originally Posted by Gwath

Her 3 analyses concern me because of their overall uniformity. All 3 are almost exactly the same in that they carefully avoid making any irrectractable conclusions. It as if Lommy went and filed all the sharp points and interesting edges off before posting, with the result that they all make practically identical conclusions: The subject does a few suspicious things (which she relates), but her suspicions extend no farther than the degree of curiosity. So, while these analyses appear to condemn no one, they leave her a variety of voting options later on - and so, paradoxically, condemn everyone. She is afraid to commit.

Again you're not thinking about what I've said but just happily using them as an excuse against me! Really. I did say I wouldn't make any overall conclusions on which ones of the three of you are wolves right then when I made those analyses because I needed to go to sleep and think when my brain was more refreshed (it was about 5am my time when I finished the last analysis). I said I'd come back to draw conclusions - you discount that happily. You're too eager to get rid of me to be innocent.

[Thinlómien]

Continuing from where I left my analyses yesterday - some comparison of Gwath, Gaunt and Di and thoughts on possible connections.

It's difficult to say who is the most suspicious of them all, happily recent posts have helped with that a little. Because I really do find Gwath's attack on me very uninnocentish. Contrary to that, Diamond's explanation of her hurries and votes looked rather genuine. Admittedly, something in her sort of non-commitedness disturbs me, and quite a lot. Gaunt doesn't strike me as particularily wolvish, but my reasoning just tells me he is quite probably one - I think it would make sense and it would definitely explain why he's so aware of everything.

I doubt Gwath and Diamond are fellows. I still think Gwath wouldn't have written "Hi, Diamond18" if they were fellows. Also, unless Gwath is a total gambler, I can't see why they would have voted different people toDay.

I also doubt Diamond and Gaunt are fellows. Why would Di have voted Gaunt now that they are so close to victory?

That leaves the Gwath-Gaunt combo, which even makes sense. It would explain why they have dropped suspicion of each other toDay.

Nicely played, guys, but I think I caught you. Ha. (Or then someone's really bluffing hard, or I should after all bring the Kath card back to the game aaaaaargh.)

Now I'm scared.

This seems a little too easy. Everytime I think I'm right about something in ww I'm wrong. Escpecially if it's a crucial choice.

I'm rather sure I will vote either Gwath or Gaunt toDay. At least one of them should be a wolf.

(I just got the horrible idea of a Kath-Di combo... but they would have played so beautifully that they'd almost deserve to win.)

[Kath]

If the final wolves were myself and Di we would not deserve to win, we've barely been here! I don't think Di is a wolf because she has been here so little.

Anyway, I find myself agreeing with Gwath a bit! I don't quite know what it is about Lommy but she is really looking suspicious to me at the moment. It is quite possibly just because she's still alive.

Of Gaunt and Gwath ... I just don't know.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kath

Anyway, I find myself agreeing with Gwath a bit! I don't quite know what it is about Lommy but she is really looking suspicious to me at the moment. It is quite possibly just because she's still alive.

I think I'm looking suspicious to you (plural) because I'm talking. I mean, really, if someone talks, s/he says a lot of things you can grasp and thus it's easy to say s/he's suspicious. (From now on, I should probably refrain from flood-posting in crucial Days just to avoid catastrophes... )

Originally Posted by Kath

If the final wolves were myself and Di we would not deserve to win, we've barely been here! I don't think Di is a wolf because she has been here so little.

Well, maybe but the little you two have said has mostly seemed innocent enough.

[Thinlómien]

I was just thinking about this and I realised something - Kath, if you vote me, we will lose because Gaunt won't surely vote himself...

Not that Gaunt is necessarily a wolf either.

[Kath]

I disagree Lommy. Because Gaunt has spoken just as much and I don't get that feeling that he's suspicious.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kath

I disagree Lommy. Because Gaunt has spoken just as much and I don't get that feeling that he's suspicious.

I don't think he has spoken as much as I have. More than you others, though. And like I said, he has mostly talked about rules, which is rather safe for a wolf.

[Kath]

And like I said, he has mostly talked about rules, which is rather safe for a wolf.

Really? Because I would have said he talked about a lot more than that. All of yesterDay he was coming up with theories, making decisions based on those theories, interacting with everyone and voting decisively. Any rule discussion was a prelude to all this ... no?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kath

Really? Because I would have said he talked about a lot more than that. All of yesterDay he was coming up with theories, making decisions based on those theories, interacting with everyone and voting decisively. Any rule discussion was a prelude to all this ... no?

I agree he has talked a lot about other stuff too. But what I was trying to say was that a big part of what he has said is rule discussion and theories, which is easy domain for a wolf, because it's so neutral.

I'm not criticising his behaviour at any rate. I think he has participated a lot and played wonderfully - especially if he's a wolf, like it would seem.

[Kath]

I'll check it out.

Right, I'm going round to a friend's house for dinner but I will be back before the deadline. Should return about half eight or nine.

[Thinlómien]

Quiet as a grave.

I wonder if that's an omen...

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

That leaves the Gwath-Gaunt combo, which even makes sense. It would explain why they have dropped suspicion of each other toDay.

Nicely played, guys, but I think I caught you. Ha. (Or then someone's really bluffing hard, or I should after all bring the Kath card back to the game aaaaaargh.)

She is lying through her fangs.

Notice the clever inclusion of humor to disarm the unsuspecting, and that by the end of the original post, she is treating the Gwath-Gaunt biumvirate of treachery as an axiomatic fact. Pure evil.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Not that Gaunt is necessarily a wolf either.

That's right, backtrack now.

Dig your pit deeper, traitor.

[Thinlómien]

Gwathagor would you please stop being single-mindedly twisting my words and try to understand me! You're being counter-productive.

I never said I'm sure you and Gaunt are the wolves. I only said it makes the most sense to me. I never treated it as a fact.

I think there's nothing wrong with me saying that Gaunt is not necessarily a traitor. I think he probably is, but how could I know for sure??

Okay, Gwathie, either you're a wolf who's playing rather dirtily, or then you are an innocent who's a bit too offended by the fact that I do honestly happen to find you the most suspicious of this lot. I have a right to that opinion, no need to get heated.

[Thinlómien]

Once I reply Gwath's nonsense accusations with sensible replies, he falls silent... interesting...

Is there anyone else who'd be for voting Gwath toDay?

If there isn't, I will have to vote Gaunt who I'm less suspicious of...

Guess what, people, I bet we're going to lose this game tonight. Hats off to the wolves at any rate. I have the feeling we will just make the wrong choice... but that is not to say we can't try.

I feel useless.

I have absolutely nothing to do before Kath and Gaunt appear. I believe rereads or further analyses won't help me anymore. I have my conception of things and it won't change if there are no new posts (Gwathagor's rants don't count because they only reinforce my picture of him as a wolf).

Furthermore, I have the nagging feeling this village will commit suicide by lynching me toDay and I feel I can't help it in any way.

[Gaunt]

In a complete reversal of my theory yesterday, I still think Gwath is looking quite innocent. As for Di or Kath, it's difficult to be sure. Thinlomien, hmm. Now you're targeting Gwath, the other villain in the (incorrect) Gollum-Gwath theory, and me, the other main proponent (along with yourself) of this theory.

[Gwathagor]

[quote=Thinlómien;570336]

I never said I'm sure you and Gaunt are the wolves. I only said it makes the most sense to me. I never treated it as a fact.

quote]

There is no 'fact' in werewolf, only what makes the most sense.

Originally Posted by Gaunt

In a complete reversal of my theory yesterday, I still think Gwath is looking quite innocent. As for Di or Kath, it's difficult to be sure. Thinlomien, hmm. Now you're targeting Gwath, the other villain in the (incorrect) Gollum-Gwath theory, and me, the other main proponent (along with yourself) of this theory.

I should also point out, Gaunt, that the reason she was willing to drop you rather than me out of her theory was likely because she realized that if she did not, then you would vote against her, not me, thus thwarting her designs.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I should also point out, Gaunt, that the reason she was willing to drop you rather than me out of her theory was likely because she realized that if she did not, then you would vote against her, not me, thus thwarting her designs.

Please explain.

[Gaunt]

Right, I have to go now and therefore I have to vote.

Di voted for me early today. I realise I probably attracted attention by putting out a strong theory yesterday, but why vote for me over Thinlomien?

Thinlomien's remarks today have struck me as a little suspicious. She's retained her Gwath suspicion and added me to that, even though yesterday I basically shared her suspicions and she agreed with my theories. I don't really want to vote her off because I don't like the idea that you get voted because you talk a lot.

Nonetheless, given all the evidence, I think she and Di are the werewolves. I will regret it if i'm wrong.

My vote:

++Thinlomien

[Thinlómien]

Oh, Gaunt, you force me to do this.

++Gaunt

Let's hope you're a wolf

[Thinlómien]

Can I make a prediction?

Kath will vote me too,
I will get lynched,
wolves will laugh,
we will lose the game.

Ah well, but it's just a game.

Not that I'm willing to give up but I just feel I can't change the course of events anymore.

[Gwathagor]

You demonstrated my point yourself. I called you a wolf, and now you're ready to vote me. Without Gaunt's vote on your side, you probably won't be able to kill me - and it's obvious that you're going to try to.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

You demonstrated my point yourself. I called you a wolf, and now you're ready to vote me. Without Gaunt's vote on your side, you probably won't be able to kill me - and it's obvious that you're going to try to.

See, I'm trying to kill you so desperately that I vote Gaunt...
And Gwathagor, I really find it almost amusing that you should accuse me of retaliatory suspicion.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Gaunt

Nonetheless, given all the evidence, I think she and Di are the werewolves. I will regret it if i'm wrong.

My thoughts precisely, to the letter.

[Thinlómien]

If you are innocent, which I doubt, you will regret suspecting me. *sigh* But hey, I will get to say "what did I say...".

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

See, I'm trying to kill you so desperately that I vote Gaunt...

Glad to be wrong for once.

[Thinlómien]

Kath, please, come and end the suffering of this miserable village. Both the innocents and the wolves will have more fun in the afterthread discussion, I think. Wolves may gloat freely and innocents need not to be distressed.

[Thinlómien]

Oh, and congratulations, wolves. You've done a great job. Although, I must say this game was maybe a little unbalanced to your favour because the village has been so totally confused about your number and exact abilities since Eomer's informings were rather unclear. But that is not to say that you didn't play well. Obviously you did, as you're going to win this game now. I'm a bit sad to lose this game this late and I really hate getting lynched but I can take small comfort in the fact that you can't gloat openly yet and have to hold your horses since Kath hasn't voted yet - that is, unless she is a wolf herself. After all this, I wouldn't even be surprised...

[Thinlómien]

By the way, I find this rather amusing:

Post count
Thinlómien 78
Legate of Amon Lanc 35
Gwathagor 34
Nogrod 31
Rune Son of Bjarne 26
Mithalwen 23
Gaunt 22
Eomer of the Rohirrim 20
Brinniel 19
Gollum the Great 17
Kath 16
Diamond18 11
Groin Redbeard 9
Kitanna 8
Shastanis Althreduin 3
SamwiseGamgee 2

Small wonder I'm considered a horrible flood-poster...

[Thinlómien]

Gollum was right after all, it seems. By lynching me yesterDay you wouldn't have lost anything but one-sided conversation... everybody else seems to be mute. Little Gwathawolf doesn't dare to speak because he's so excited of his near-sure victory. Sweet.

[Gwathagor]

I have nothing to say, and you seem to be doing enough frantic talking for all of us.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I have nothing to say, and you seem to be doing enough frantic talking for all of us.

I'm waiting for this game to be finished and I may as well talk because that way I at least have something to do while I wait. Your tenseness kind of reveals your wolvishness. Too bad there was no way for you to get lynched toDay.

[Kath]

Right - is there any point in me doing anything right now? Do we have a tie situation? What is going on? I am confused, I do not like the idea that I have the deciding vote. Please could someone let me know while I go think.

[Gwathagor]

Huh. Ok.

EDIT: Crossed with Kath