Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVII - Ballroom Blitz

[Macalaure]

Mac thinks Farael to be cobbler, Farael thinks Nogrod and Holby innocent

Should Mac now think Nogrod and Holby are evil? Hmm...

Or is it the other way around? Is Farael using reverse psychology... or reverse reverse psychology??

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Farael

Think me a cobbler if you must, but at least read my last post carefully. I think I might be on to something, specially with Mac's italized good.

Yes you might... and we really should read it carefully! Like:

Originally Posted by Farael

Note how he italices the "good" in the second "goodness". IF that's not a cobbler hint, I've never seen one. To me, that's saying that he thinks it "good" what happened last night.

Now folks, if you agree with me I will say do not lynch him If we know him to be a cobbler, the best thing we can do right now is ignore him.

So the cobbler Farael defending the master here? Do not lynch him, he's only a cobbler? Not bad, not bad... Either you have fooled us to believe you were Celuien's cobbler and in fact are Mac's cobbler, or then you just sense it? Right?

Needs to think about this...

[Macalaure]

Something else:

If we lynch an innocent today, there will be (most probably) one innocent, two cobbler and a wolf left tomorrow. Village loses.
If we lynch the wolf, we win (naturally)
If we lynch a cobbler, we will probably have two innocents, a cobbler and a wolf tomorrow. With double lynchings, this is a fair chance.

What I'm saying is: If in doubt, go for the cobbler. Just don't lynch an innocent.

[Farael]

Nogrod you have just made me laugh

Have you not realized what I said? We have TWO lynches left and THREE Baddies. Should I spell it out for you?

If we lynch someone whom we believe a cobbler, and then at night the wolf gets an ordo, that leaves us with only ONE chance to get the wolf. It'll be wolf or nothing.

If we are fairly sure whom a cobbler may be, as I am of Macalure then it is on our best interests to ignore him and try to find the Wolf with our two remaining lynches. Remember that the cobbler alone loses... if fwe get the remaining wolf, whether toDance or tomorrowDance, we win. If we don't, no matter if we get both cobblers, we lose.

So what would you rather do? go after someone who's very likely a cobbler, or give yourself a chance to find the wolf?

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

If we lynch a cobbler, we will probably have two innocents, a cobbler and a wolf tomorrow. With double lynchings, this is a fair chance.

Fair chance for what?

Two ordos, a cobbler and a wolf:

We get the wolf, we win.
We get an ordo, the wolf may kill an ordo or the cobbler at night, but even if he gets the cobbler, only an ordo and the wolf are left the morning after
We get the cobbler, the wolf kills an ordo at night, same scenario.

Hey, wait... Macalure said that with a double-lynch there is a fair chance but.... how do you organize a double-lynch when half of the players are baddies?

This makes no sense, the cobbler will either vote for whoever the wolf votes, or he will vote to protect the wolf at the last minute. The only chance we have is that, by luck, both ordos vote for the wolf... but how likely is that?

No, to organize a double-lynch you need to have the cooperation of at least half plus one of the players, to be able to counter-act the best efforts of the baddies. If the village is divided, half and half, then a double lynch is impossible.

Are you trying to lead us astray, Mr. Macalure?

[Nogrod]

Funny that you two (Farael & Macalaure) are the ones here to give us a lecture on maths. I think we all can count...

But why are you Mac crying for going after the cobbler in a situation where we have at most two lynches to go for? Go for a cobbler (and not the wolf)? How more anti-innocent could you get? It's that time of the game when the cobbler should perform her/his duties for the master (even by suicidal means) and for the master to save her/himself. I'm all the more believing Mac is the one we are looking for. I'm wishing to get a return from Mac and thence wish to make these claims now. Later on it would be nasty to go after him this straightly (still hoping you Mac could convince me of your innocense).

My thoughts of Farael being a cobbler and Mac being a wolf kind of gets more wind under it (another Finnish idiom, sorry) as I see these two. But there should be a connection (or the noteworthy nonexistence of one). We need to look at it before we vote.

And funny as it is, look at the following:

This makes no sense, the cobbler will either vote for whoever the wolf votes, or he will vote to protect the wolf at the last minute. The only chance we have is that, by luck, both ordos vote for the wolf... but how likely is that?

So a he? Well, how do you know? My forefather lost a game where he was definitively winning because the mod slipped a sex in the pronouns... So you Farael were already thinking what you would do?

But what you say Farael in the end is true: managing a double-lynch is hard with three baddies from six. But not so impossible as you let us believe! Two will oppose a plan that is right, clearly, but the third would not be so sure (and in the best case the wolf would not know her/his cobbler yet - so shattering even more the line of the baddies). So we should gather all the three of us under the same banner and rally around it. Possibly we will not kill but one villain toDance but the voting record should be really interestring to see the next Dance for those who are still living...

We need to study a thing or two before we make our decisions. I'll promise to do some of them, but hopefully you others will help.

[Macalaure]

Time to vote.

Farael still seems cobblerish to me. But though I wouldn't mind seeing him gone, I think I will not vote for him.

I won't vote Nogrod, too, even though I don't trust him too much. I need better reasoning to do that.

I suspect Lalwende, but at this point, a vote for her from me would be a horrible shot in the dark.

Cailín still looks quite innocent. I may revise my opinion tomorrow with better thought, but I won't vote for her today.

This leaves me with Holbytlass. Cailín said before that she is playing very safe and I agree. Her one post today also does not look good to me. There are only two innocents among you and I don't think it's her.

Not with a good feeling, but with the best that I can bring myself to:

++Holbytlass


Good night and good luck.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I suspect Lalwende, but at this point, a vote for her from me would be a horrible shot in the dark.

This leaves me with Holbytlass. Cailín said before that she is playing very safe and I agree. Her one post today also does not look good to me. There are only two innocents among you and I don't think it's her.

I'll promise to you to check these two out before I vote!

[Farael]

Sorry Nogrod but I'm afraid that in Spanish (my first language as you all know) the way of refering to someone of unknown sex is by the masculine... so an unknown is a "he". I try to write s/he or him or her or what ever, but sometimes things like that slip.

Call it what you want, you are a he as well.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Farael

Call it what you want, you are a he as well.

Yes I am. It was just so frustrating to my grandfather to lose a game because the Mod slipped the sex... I might be oversensitive about these matters because of that (it was actually the argument by which my forefather was lynched when he was a baddie). But I can't help noting these "slips" now...

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Holbytlass has been looking fishy to me all the game. Her recent theory about me is the most far-fetched thing I have seen in a long time (no offense ). I think she is a cobbler, if not something worse.

Hmmm. This interjection of 'no offence' suggests that Mac and Holbytlass are not in cahoots with one another. Therefore, one is good, one bad. They are not a pairing of cobbler/wolf.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

You make me wonder, Nogrod. Even if you don't agree with my last point on Holby, why do you dismiss her possible guilt without much comment? What makes you feel better about her than about Cailín or Lal?

Mac challenges Nogrod for dismissing bad feelings about Holbytlass. Honest or bluff? But then Mac goes on to challenge myself and Cailin, two people who have been thought of in a good light. Mac could be seeking a new direction (especially after that big lynching), which indeed is something I agree with, or he could be seeking to steer everyone towards new scapegoats.

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

ABOUT CAILIN
She finds everyone to be innocent maybe because she knows all, but one, are innocent.
Actually, I don’t find her suspicious at all, but then that was how Celuien was at first perceived, up front with analysis and very calm. I tend to believe her innocent though.

ABOUT FARAEL
Is very straight forward and adamant about his plan, trying to be helpful to village
Could be something there between him and Folwren but I think Folwren to be the guilty one

Two very revealing comments. Folwren is/was of course innocent, so why say this? I think this is a bluff about Farael (who is also beginning a campaign against me). Cailin has of course been extraordinarily well protected throughout the game and continues to be. Which is very fishy.

I'm watching Holbytlass and Cailin right now. And also Mac, to decide upon guilt or innocence.

[Lalwendë]

Farael is also suspicious having read through some old posts. Repeated cries of 'lynch the quiet ones!'? And now banging the drum for not going after cobblers? That smacks of changing strategies.

Farael is not a wolf - why would a wolf mollycoddle a cobbler? But Farael may well be one of those people who mends old boots...Of course, given comments about quiet ones, Farael cannot be Cailin's cobbler. Could be Holby's though...there are few mentions of her name...if any. Diversionary tactics?

Looking back too, Mac seems for too 'random' to be a wolf or cobbler.

So that will leave Nogrod for analysis...

[Lalwendë]

Oh 'eck, a triple posting. But I have just had a thought. Yes, I do have them sometimes...

We have one person who we ought to be able to easily identify now there are so few of us. And that's the cobbler for the surviving wolf! This cobbler knows who 'their' wolf is. They don't know who the other cobbler is. The wolf does not know who the cobblers are, either of them.

In theory, if we can identify who that cobbler is, they should lead us to the wolf.

So who seems to be defending someone else? Either outright or by deflecting comments and suspicions subtly?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

In theory, if we can identify who that cobbler is, they should lead us to the wolf.

So who seems to be defending someone else? Either outright or by deflecting comments and suspicions subtly?

Nice to see you are getting the grip of this!

I'm sorry to repeat myself here but as it seems reasonable, I'll do it. Mac is urging us to go for the cobbler:

What I'm saying is: If in doubt, go for the cobbler

Hello! We have only one Dance left if we don't manage it toDance! Let's go for the wolf, I say. If Mac is a wolf, he would love to try make us think like he suggests. And look how Farael defends Mac after he had gotten some suspicion:

If we are fairly sure whom a cobbler may be, as I am of Macalure then it is on our best interests to ignore him and try to find the Wolf with our two remaining lynches.

So ignore Mac and lynch some others? Well why do you wish to not-lynch someone? Because a cobbler Farael wishes us to save his master Macalaure?

Even as I dislike double-lynches, I might like to see the one with Mac and Farael. At least the moment it looks like our best chance.

I need to go asleep, but toDance I will be back and remain online in the end. I also hope to have time to check both Lal and Holby, and also Cailín before I vote. We need some more information and if anyone of you has time I would welcome your help with it. It's a bit of a workload to do these all by oneself (see yesterDance).

[Cailín]

Eomer…

… why?

There are no words dramatic, painful and bitter enough for this tragedy. There was no need. No reasoning. And yet he was forced to die in the interest of the village: and how noble he appeared when he decided not to act in self-interest, how bravely did he accept this dreadful, undeserved fate.

And for what? For what? *weeps*

Now you expect me to reason, to use cold-blooded logic and find the final wolf? Ooh, how could I? It is too much.

++ Cailín

…

…

But no. I must be strong. Those evil, demonic, treacherous creatures responsible for my beloved's untimely death should pay before I join him in the afterlife. And they shall.

-- Cailín

*sigh* We will meet again, dearest.

***

I feel quite clueless and back at ground zero today. There are three baddies against three innocents. Our advantage is that the baddies do not know one another, except for the final wolf's Cobbler. Lalwende is right: this cobbler could lead us to the wolf and would be a great catch, but the only problem is we will never know for sure who he or she is before the end (unless we force a full confession, but that seems impratical) and all in all it seems much safer to look for the wolf. Maybe the cobbler who knew of Celuien's true identity is as lost as we are and supporting the wrong candidate. Our primary disadvantage here is that the innocents do not know each other at all.

I wish that there was someone to trust, but after yesterdance's slaughter, I just don't know anymore. That neither Naria or Valier turned out to be cobblers or fanged… I was stunned. I knew Eomer and Mormegil were innocent: or at least, was almost 100% certain. I am not sure what drove them to the madness of yesterdance's proceedings. It was reckless.

At the moment, I am inclined to trust Nogrod. Indeed - I am rather surprised he is still alive and this makes me a little suspicious, but he has not alarmed me at all these past few days and today continues to be calm and logical, analysing and describing all different scenarios. I am going with a gut feeling here.

Farael… I am surprised that so many loudmouths are still around. What I am thinking is that Folwren was chosen because the wolf was nearly certain she was not one of the cobblers. It is evidently in the wolf's best interest to keep the cobblers alive as long as possible. This theory seems to point in the direction of Farael - Folwren voted for him two dances ago and was highly suspicious of him since the start of this ball of doom. Then again, would a wolf really be so obvious as Farael? I do not know. It sounds unlikely, but not impossible.

I was almost convinced Farael was a cobbler yesterdance, but his posts today have confused me on this issue again. Still, I do not trust him.

Lalwende… tricky. I found most of her posts obscure before, but am nodding along with some of it today. If she, as a newbie (you must be tired of hearing this, Lalwende, so I do apologise) is the final wolf, well done to her. I am not dismissing her from my suspect list, but she has recently - and especially yesterdance - been silent so it is hard to pass judgement on her.

Macalaure is extremely ambiguous. I suspect him - rather strongly - of cobblerism and even possible wolvishness at the moment. His attack on Eomer yesterdance does not sit well with me (and for more than just personal reasons). Again, I feel he is going for the likely prey today, as he did before and before. Yes, I will not forget his hand in Celuien's death, and this does clear him to a certain degree, but what I did not believe of Mormegil, I could believe of Mac.

Holbytlass is also a little obscure. As I said yesterdance, her playing style reminds rather strongly of Wolf-Celuien's style. She manages to fly under the - or my - radar (I think it is something she is famous for). I cannot, though, find strong evidence for her furriness. She could as easily be completely ordinary and innocent as wickedly evil.

So who out of these five is the wolf?

I confess, I have no straight answer.

I would favour a lynching of Farael or Macalaure today, though I am swaying beyond belief. Both seem suspicious, too suspicious to be innocent.

Let's avoid a double lynch in any case, Nogrod. If we fail to find the wolf, this will doom us no matter the turn out. At least - I think it best.

[Cailín]

Oh and Nogrod: I am sorry you have to do all analysis by yourself. I am usually no good with long sum-up posts, nor do I take particular pleasure in making them, which is why I gladly leave it to others. However, I will probably have some time tomorrow to look through everyone's posts.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And look how Farael defends Mac after he had gotten some suspicion: So ignore Mac and lynch some others? Well why do you wish to not-lynch someone? Because a cobbler Farael wishes us to save his master Macalaure?

Noggy, you are being obtuse here.... it's the same thing you've proposed!! Don't go for the cobbler, try to get the wolf!!! I'm not defending Macalure but tell me... do you trully believe him a wolf? If you do, by all means lynch me and him... but I say he is a cobbler, thus we are better off lynching someone else!!

You know my playing style from many games, and you know I don't mind getting killed if it's indeed what's best for the village, but double-lynching me today will pretty much seal the baddie's victory, unless you lynch me along the werewolf. And since I believe Macalure to be a cobbler, Lynching him and me won't work.

Lawlende has talked but I don't see her saying much... Cailin has posted little, but I think she's had something to say. I feel a bit better about her now, but I'd like to hear some more from her anyway.

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

Two very revealing comments. Folwren is/was of course innocent, so why say this? I think this is a bluff about Farael (who is also beginning a campaign against me). Cailin has of course been extraordinarily well protected throughout the game and continues to be. Which is very fishy.

This was my write up before this Dance started. I only had time to post this and saw that Folwren was dead and therefore I was completely wrong about her.

Even though I am a quiet villager, I'm glad to see the quiet ones also being looked at because at the beginning of this Dance it felt reminicent of yesterday when the loud ones just pointed fingers at each other.

One thing that's odd, and I will have to go back and check exactly-but wasn't some of the people who thought yesterday's mass lynching are now saying to go for a double lynch?

[Holbytlass]

Dance1
Morm --> Rikae, 1
Kitanna --> Morm (Rikae 1, Morm 1)
Farael --> Folwren (Rikae 1, Morm 1, Folwren 1)
Morm X Rikae --> Valier (Morm 1, Folwren 1, Valier 1)
Cailin --> Kath (Morm 1, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1)
Celuien --> Morm (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1)
Lal --> Kitanna (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1, Kitanna 1)
Folwren --> Farael (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1, Kitanna 1, Farael 1)
Mac --> Kath (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 2, Kitanna 1, Farael 1)
Valier --> Farael (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 2, Kitanna 1, Farael 2)
Rikae --> Kitanna (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 2, Kitanna 2, Farael 2)
Holby --> Morm (Morm 3, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 2, Kitanna 2, Farael 2)
Nogrod --> Kath (Morm 3, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 3, Kitanna 2, Farael 2)
Eomer --> Kath (Morm 3, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 4, Kitanna 2, Farael 2)
Naria --> Rikae (Morm 3, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 4, Kitanna 2, Farael 2, Rikae 1)

Kath did not vote.

Dance2
Mormegil-->Celuien (Cel-1)
Cailin-->Valier (Cel-1, Val-1)
Farael-->Mormegil (Cel-1, Val-1, Morm-1)
Celuien-->Valier (Cel-1, Val-2, Morm-1)
Nogrod-->Folwren(Cel-1, Val-2, Morm-1, Fol-1)
Holbytlass-->Macalaure (Cel-1, Val-2, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1)
Macalaure-->Celuien (Cel-2, Val-2, Morm-1, Fol-1,Mac-1)
Valier-->Celuien (Cel-3, Val-2, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1)
Eomer-->Valier (Cel-3, Val-3, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1)
Folwren-->Farael (Cel-3, Val-3, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1, Farael-1)
Lalwende--> Valier (Cel-3, Val-4, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1, Farael-1)
Naria --> morm (Cel-3, Val-4, Morm-2, Fol-1, Mac-1, Farael-1)
Rikae --> Mac (Cel-3, Val-4, Morm-2, Fol-1, Mac-2, Farael-1)
Rikae X Mac --> Celuien (Cel-4, Val-4, Morm-2, Fol-1, Mac-1, Farael-1)
Naria X morm --> Celuien (Cel-5, Val-4, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1, Farael-1

Dance3
Morm-->Macaulare (Mac-1)
Farael-->Mormegil (Mac-1, Morm-1)
Naria-->Mormegil (Mac-1, Morm-2)
Nogrod-->Naria (Mac-1, Morm-2, Nar-1)
Cailin-->Farael (Mac-1, Morm-2, Nar-1, Far-1)
Macaulare-->Eomer (Mac-1, Morm-2, Nar-1, Far-1, Eom-1)
MormegilXMacaulare-->Naria (Morm-2, Nar-2, Far-1, Eom-1)
Lalwende-->Valier (Morm-2, Nar-2, Far-1, Eom-1, Val-1)
Valier-->Eomer (Morm-2, Nar-2, Far-1, Eom-2, Val-1)
Eomer-->Valier (Morm-2, Nar-2, Far-1, Eom-2, Val-2)

No vote:Holby, Folwren

I know it's only 3days of votes but seeing as we're near the end maybe something odd will stand out

[Lalwendë]

Now to Nogrod. He calls for a double lynch. I don't agree. This is far too risky. We have three innocents, and so there is a high chance we lynch two of them, and then the third would be popped off by the wolf, game over. If we single lynch then we will be guaranteed a chance (especially as only one cobbler has wolf-knowledge). Double lynch we may only have a 50:50 chance. Single lynch, we have a 1:6 chance. I think. Not good at maths!

Nogrod has voted for Kath, Folwren, Naria. All got wolfed down or lynched.
Farael has voted for Folwren, Morm, Morm.
Cailin has voted for Kath, Valier, Farael. (Celuien and Cailin had identical voting patterns until Celuien was bumped off, then she takes up Folwren's fondness for voting for Farael).
Mac has voted for Kath, Celuien, Eomer.
Holby has voted for Morm, Mac and has a spoiled ballot.

We have had votes from:
Nogrod - No-one
Farael - Folwren, Cailin.
Cailin - No-one
Mac - Holby, Morm
Holby - No-one

Mac cannot be a wolf, as even a wolf would not go along with the groundswell of votes for 'fellow wolf' Celuien. So he's innocent. That leaves one more innocent to find. I think Cailin was Celuien's cobbler, so it's not her. Looking at voting patterns (which we would not expect necessarily to match exactly, but which may follow on) I think Holby may be the wolf, and Farael her cobbler.

[Cailín]

Silence, and only one and a half hour left before voting.

I read through Lalwende and Holbytlass posts, but this did not radically change my opinion on either.

Reading over today's posts, some odd things said by Nogrod jump out.

1) He suspects Macalaure

2) He states losing an innocent Mac would be a bad thing, which I have heard him said repeatedly over the past few days.

3) He advocates a double lynch.

A double lynch is obviously not very much in our advantage today. Unless we are certain we get the wolf, it would be silly. And tonight's kill, should the wolf live another day, might be very telling. None of us have been silent today, or have not at least spoken their mind. A no trail-kill is impossible. Again, the wolf will want to avoid killing his or her cobblers. I think we will be able to make a far stronger case tomorrow. Of course, I also hope we get the wolf today and end this insecurity, but a double lynch is, as Lal says, far too risky.

Then, Nogrod, losing any innocent today - not just Macalaure - would be very bad, no matter the skills of the player involved. We need all the innocents we can get now. The lynch of a cobbler would not doom us, but the lynch of an innocent gives the wolf a near-certain victory.

What I was thinking is that Mac might be the cobbler for the other, remaining wolf… so not necessarily an innocent. I agree that he is definitely not Celuien's cobbler and it is unlikely he is the last remaining wolf. Not impossible, but improbable.

I am not so certain of Nogrod's innocence anymore as I was at the start of this dance.

But mainly, my sentiments have changed little since my last post - unless it is that I am more suspicious of you all. Also, considering the voting patterns, Lalwende seems the most likely cobbler for Celuien.

[Nogrod]

Okay. Back again. My modem jammed and after an hour's work I gave up and came to my mother's place...

Originally Posted by Lal

Now to Nogrod. He calls for a double lynch. I don't agree.

Actually I'm not. I should have made myself clearer then. I was referring to the actual idea by Mac and said that my double-lynch choice would be Mac himself with Farael... There should have been a smiley or something after it I suppose.

But as you said Lal, it sounds a bit too risky.

I'm going to try and have a look at Holby now.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

one said aloud to be more heard
"Will the Fenris wolf step forward?"

Just a moment. This is from Holby's first post. Is there a Fenris wolf still among us living? I mean someone who has been a wolf and Died on Day1 lynching? This could be acobbler trying to contact her wolf (if there actually is one Fenris around)? Any knowledge?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

Mac cannot be a wolf, as even a wolf would not go along with the groundswell of votes for 'fellow wolf' Celuien. So he's innocent.

I'm not sure if I understood correctly what you meant here, but I see no reason why Mac would not have gotten his fellow lynched. You see why? Just because of the feeling it arouses in you ("he must be innocent").

Originally Posted by Cailín

1) He suspects Macalaure
2) He states losing an innocent Mac would be a bad thing, which I have heard him said repeatedly over the past few days.

Okay. Let's make me a cobbler then, with Mac, and Holby, and Farael, and Lal, and you...

Let's get the wolf instead, please.

At the moment I think it could be Mac, but I will have to think about it yet (and try to finish my look on Holby who at least for the time being looks more like a cobbler ).

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Just a moment. This is from Holby's first post. Is there a Fenris wolf still among us living? I mean someone who has been a wolf and Died on Day1 lynching? This could be acobbler trying to contact her wolf (if there actually is one Fenris around)? Any knowledge?

Good grief, I hope not because that was done in jest and song.

I can see where each of you look wolvish. And my head is spinning.

Macaulare with the plausible (to me) bluff of distancing himself from Celuien.

Lalwende with being on the quiet side-does put forth theories and ideas but has a 'newbie shield' that would be good protection for a wolf

Farael with turning topic from wolf hunting to getting rid of quiets

Cailin is definitely under the radar, did someone actually not know she was playing?!

Nogrod just by being cool and collected-a bit 'too good to be true' sort of thing

Macaulare
Cailin
Lalwende
Farael
Nogrod

That's my list in order of most suspicious on down

[Nogrod]

Well, I must confess that I didn't become much wiser by looking at Holby. The only one thing that actually caught my eye looked cobblerish and is somewhat interesting if you look at the target. [QUOTE#43] Macalaure, good thing we can read minds like the elves otherwise by the very nature of your chosen occupation you would say the least and be the first to die[/QUOTE]But careful, yes. That she has been and as Cailín suggested, most similar to the way Celuien played: not saying much, avoiding all things controversial - and as I'm getting the "vibes" now, going with the current winds. Who knows?

But this I think is even more interesting. I didn't remember this: [QUOTE#310] ABOUT FOLWREN
Has this bit of a backandforthbanter with Farael
They vote for each other on day one
Folwren keeps voting for Farael in safe voting positions[/QUOTE]What I mean? When there are less people around it is quite important to have such ones around who do not consistently vote or suspect you. Also it is imperative to not raise too much discomfort around with others (as they might vote you). It's so neat a balance now that one bad feeling of someone wishing to try you out may result in that person getting one's vote - even if that is done in good faith to help see who's actually furry or not.

So Farael actually could be the wolf too. A bit reckless, possibly, but that is a good cover also.

[Holbytlass]

++Macaulare

[Nogrod]

Okay. My top three now for lycantrophy.

Mac: killed a fellow to gain trust, wishes us to go for a cobbler or a double-lynch instead of the wolf, strongly covered by Farael (who then might be the cobbler). A strong suspicion. I kind of believe he's the one we should go for.

Farael: trying to lead us astray all the time and lately trying to play like a cobbler as we have been of the opinion that we should not waste our lynches on cobblers... If Mac is innocent, then it might be Farael.

Holby: for playing like Celuien; easily, nonconfrontationally = safely. Not a good case, but a possible one.

[Nogrod]

Everyone holding back now? Let's be careful with the last minute frenzy as the cobblers are around. They - and the wolf - would love the confusion.

++ Macalaure

Given with hopeful confidence.

Mac --> Holby
Holby --> Mac
Nogrod --> Mac (Holby1, Mac2)

Three left.

[Cailín]

Your suspects are similar to mine, Nogrod. I suspect Farael the most (of both wolvery and cobblery), with Macalaure as a secondary wolf-candidate (though I suspect him more of cobblery than wolvishness). Lalwende and Holbytlass I am just too unsure about - though I think Holbytlass marginally more suspicious than Lalwende, purely based on general behaviour - and my trust in you has not completely vanished.

Farael not posting makes me even more suspicious. I am expecting him to jump in at the last moment to attempt to save himself or his wolf.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Farael not posting makes me even more suspicious. I am expecting him to jump in at the last moment to attempt to save himself or his wolf.

That's what I'm afraid of too...

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Farael not posting makes me even more suspicious. I am expecting him to jump in at the last moment to attempt to save himself or his wolf.

Funny thing, I just got here... I've got to read all that was said since my last post, and I'm preparing lunch while I'm at it for me and my sister.

I'll try to get back with a vote.

[Cailín]

Cross-posted with Nogrod there. I am tempted to hold back indeed, as I fear the cobblers may be retracting, revoting and all that evilness during the last few minutes. I am also worried that if I add a vote for Farael now, a wolf or cobbler may jump up in happiness and seize the opportunity to clinch a double lynch.

The only way to avoid this seems to be...

++ Macalaure

He was not my first candidate, as I still cannot fully believe he is a wolf, but I am nearly certain that he is indeed a cobbler. This will at least buy us another day and two telling deaths.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Cailín

He was not my first candidate, as I still cannot fully believe he is a wolf, but I am nearly certain that he is indeed a cobbler. This will at least buy us another day and two telling deaths.

Answering this before I have a chance to read all that was said

Let's suppose that (as I'm fairly sure) Macalure is a cobbler

Tonight odds are the wolf gets an ordo so we are left with

Wolf
Cobbler
Two ordos

Tomorrow if we kill anyone but the wolf, the game is over since:
If we kill an ordo there's only one ordo and two baddies left
If we kill the cobbler, the wolf kills an ordo at night, thus we are left with wolf and ordo the following day.

Therefore I find your vote rather suspicious... killing Macalure does NOT give us another day.

This is a wasted kill, but right now I've got no-one better to propose so I'll go read and pray that you guys are still around if there's a better person for lynching

[Farael]

Well, I think that we are wrong by lynching Macalure say what you want of a cobbler protecting his wolf, I can assure you that's not the case.

To me, Macalure is one of the two cobblers and lynching him plays right into the wolf's hand

I have not had time to do enough "reading" so I will vote for the only other person with a vote, in hopes that at least one of you two will change your vote.

++Holbytlass

At least she's a mildly suspicious incognito, therefore there is a better chance she'll actually be the wolf.

[Holbytlass]

killing me gives us nothing

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

killing me gives us nothing

Says who?

[Nogrod]

-- Macalaure

[Durelin]

It was a jovial English country dance, the dancers weaving in and out delicately but purposefully, switching partners dutifully if only to get a closer look at their teeth: specifically their canines. Everyone knew it should be a funeral dirge, and had no doubt that the final march would come soon. The end would come, and either the dead could be buried by those very lucky, very few left alive, or all but one would serve as trophies in a victory, two gladly sacrificed and so dusted more regularly.

One sat the dance out. The others glanced at her rarely, and either with sympathy or with annoyance, as her sobs nearly overcame the music.

“My poor Eomer, my…”

Nogrod made sure sharp objects were kept away from her, and everyone simply assumed it was because he was that fatherly type.

Suddenly, an argument broke out. Apparently someone was stepping on some toes, though there were only four guests actually dancing.

“You Cobbler, Farael,” the Mime exploded before he could stop himself.

“Aha!” the Orc cried, “So you’re not really a mime, are you? Cobbler!”

“Now, now, boys,” Nogrod parented, but did not leave Cailín’s side. She wailed once more dejectedly.

“Don’t get into this, old man,” Farael snapped, “We’re going to do this my way, because we haven’t been doing it my way so far, and so far we’ve been losing, so we’re going to do it my way.”

“Uh…no,” Nogrod responded lamely, but his eyes lit up as if a revelation hit him. The gleam was short lived, and no one seemed to notice.

“You fool, Farael! We don’t do it your way, we do it the right way,” Macalaure mimed frantically.

Holbytlass was not impressed by his logic. “Can’t we finally get rid of this mime?”

“What about getting rid of the jester?” Macalaure questioned. “She’s just as useless.”

Nogrod heartily agreed with them both, and naturally, with Cailín.

“Yes, your charade is up, Wolf, Cobbler, or whatever you are,” the harmless, grieving Robin said, “The evil ones will pay for what they did to my Eomer!”

It seemed a miracle. Farael settled his differences with Macalaure and agreed with him that Holbytlass should die.

“She’s been stealing your spotlight, man,” the Orc told the mime friendlily, putting an arm across his shoulders.

Nogrod’s fatherly instincts, which he did not extend to Macalaure, seemed to cause him to console Holbytlass, or simply keep her from attacking Farael and Macalaure in anger.

“It’s okay, my dead…I mean, dear jester. You have but two against you, and the mime has three.”

Holbytlass felt a little relieved, and let out a sigh.

But then Nogrod spoke again, “Unless of course I change my mind.”

At that moment, Holbytlass and Macalaure took their last breaths.

Farael began punching holes in Macalaure’s throat with his hand punch, and Nogrod plunged his lasting pliers into Holbytlass’s neck.

Cailín rose up with laughter, and her womanly features and diminutive, feathery costume was replaced by thick fur, pointed ears, claws, and sharp teeth, as her laugh transformed into a growl.

“Yes, those villagers have paid for what they did to my Eomer,” she spat.

Then suddenly there was heard a small, sweet voice upon the air…

“Together, together, together everyone
Together, together, come on lets have some fun
Together, were there for each other every time
Together together come on lets do this right”*

Lalwendë wandered back into the ballroom, belting it out with much post-Christmas cheer. But when she came upon Cailín-Wolf and the bloody mess at her feet, her voice died in her throat, and all that emerged was a strangled gasp.

“Oh.”



-----------------------------------------
*“We’re all in this Together” from High School Musical

[Durelin]

“Alright, fellas, let's go!

Oh it's been getting so hard
Livin' with the things you do to me, aha
Oh my dreams are getting so strange
I'd like to tell you everything I see
Oh, I see Farael at the back
As a matter of fact his eyes are red as the sun
And Cailín in the corner let no one ignore her
'Cause she thinks she's the passionate one

Oh, yeah, it was like lightning, everybody was frightening
And the music was soothing, and they all started grooving

Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, Yeah
And Celuien at the back said
Everyone attack and it turned into a ballroom blitz
And Cailín in the corner said
Boy, I wanna warn ya, it'll turn into a ballroom blitz
Ballroom blitz, ballroom blitz, ballroom blitz
Ballroom blitz

I'm reaching out for something
Touching nothing's all I ever do
Oh, I softly call you over
When you appear there's nothing left of you, aha
Now Nogrod in the back
Is ready to crack as he raises his hands to the sky
And Cailín in the corner is ev'ryone's mourner
She could kill you with a wink of her eye

Oh yeah, it was electric, so frightfully hectic
And the band started leaving, 'cause they all stopped breathing

~“Ballroom Blitz” by Sweet, minorly and poorly edited by moi.