TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth

[the guy who be short]

The cursed is most likely dead already.

I voted for myself because I thought I was a little higher on people's lists... In any case, I'd bet my left beard there's a wolf in the Enca-Fea-Mr U trio proposed. So it will all work out well in the end anyway, even if Enca isn't a wolf today.

Simple.

[Boromir88]

Mr. Underhill, the way I see it is either...

1) tgwbs is bluffing

or

2) Like me, realizes he may be a distraction to the village and is sacrificing himself to the village.

With that being said here's all that could go wrong if there's a double-lynching.

1) Both candidates are innocent bringing us downn 4-1, during the night. Then the wolf gets his/her kill.

1 a) The Wolf's kill, by luck picks the Cursed (if he/she still so be around) and the Villagers lose.

1 b) The wolf kills an ordinary bringing score down 3-1 and giving you one day to catch the lone wolf. Another problem with this is I don't see how you can tell anything from the voting if there is a double lynching, making it even harder to find the wolf.

If there is no double lynching, and we don't get a wolf the score is 5-1 going into the night. 4-1, or 3-2 (if the wolf luckily catches the cursed), giving an extra day for the villagers. Also, if we just vote the way we have been, you can tell a lot more from the votes that way then by everyone agreeing on a double-lynching.

The cursed is most likely dead already.~tgwbs

That's probably true, but you can't pass it of as a "known."

[mormegil]

Yes Boromir I've considered those odds myself but think out of 5 villagers assuming Mr. U's and my innocence we pick 2 that's a 40% chance of a lynching a wolf. It's a risk but doubles our chances. It may be worth taking a risk at this stage.

The problem also is that tomorrow I most likely will be dead and therefore the only other innocent isn't 100% known but it's nice to have one known innocent at least. Oh how I wish we could do a mass lynching right now.

[the guy who be short]

Votes schmotes. Votes can be interpreted any way you like. The important thing is that we have a small pool of suspicious villagers, and we're gonna kill them off.

My death should sort of prove Boro's innocence, as we're both in similar boats: distractions, but innocent.

Other than Boro and I, Enca and Fea seem most suspicious. They die. Throw in one Mr Underhill for good measure, voila, villagers win.

The only thing that could go wrong is the cursed villager. The chance of that is negligable.

And we don't need that extra day if we kill 2 people per day. It helps us, if anything.

Today: 2/7 chance of getting wolf
Tomorrow: 1/2 chance.

By the old rules of one lynching per day:
Today: 1/7
Tomorrow: 1/5
Two days time: 1/3

In short, I cannot be bothered to represent the maths, but we have a 54% chance of winning - randomly - if we go by the old method of one lynching per day. If we do two, this jumps to 64%.

Q.E.D.

EDIT: That's with completely random lynchings. We know more or less who we suspect as a whole, so our chances should be higher than that.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

TGWBS, bad. *slaps hand* We're trying to orchestrate the lynching of wolves, not good guys, and yet you waste your vote on yourself while still insisting that you're innocent? What a horrible way to win!

I know that my typical behavior of voting before I go to bed (right near the end of the Day) will seem sketchy today, and I've not yet decided whether or not I wish to continue it. Though I know that I'd be an innocent trying to ensure that the plan goes through (heck, I'll vote for myself if it's decided by the group that I should be part of the double lynching), but I know that I'm a top suspect, and I'd like to avoid trouble in voting.

Originally Posted by Underhill

No, not follow the crowd. But surely it seems like sound innocent strategy to work to (1) identify the Seer and follow his/her lead, and (2) being unsure of the Seer's identity, attempt to find the most innocent villagers and work with them.

Being some sort of solo-rogue-individualist villager doesn't help anyone but the wolves -- if you're a wolf, it helps sow confusion and doubt; if you're innocent, it draws suspicion on yourself and only hinders the search for the true wolves.

As I first thought that 'Mer was the Seer, then transferred it to B88 for a time, I don't at all trust in my own intuition in this village. Firefoot never crossed my mind as Seer, except a short bit of speculation that was never extended upon. Identifying the Seer and working with her just wasn't an option here, and finding the most innocent villager means going with what I know to be true.

Right now, believing that Footie dreamt of Esty and okays her, I am perfectly fine following her lead. I also believe that morm is okay to listen to, so I'll listen to him. I also know for absolute certain that I'm not lupine, so I know that all of my choices, mistake or not, are uncorrupted. It's more than I can definately say for my trust in anyone else. To me, the most innocent villager is myself.

Now I'm off to analyze Esty, though it won't be terribly in depth, as I've got so much work to do. But I'll work off of Firefoot's prior analyses, which we know to be uncorrupted, and add my own input to it.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Fea

Right now, believing that Footie dreamt of Esty and okays her

I disagree wholly on this point. Esty was not dreamt of, otherwise why would Firefoot ask her "what if" post. Remember the one, yesterday, in which she questioned the possibility of Esty being guilty. She did an analysis and didn't find any culpable in her but that doesn't mean she innocent or was dreamt of. I tend to believe that she is sincere and genuine but I'm not going to right her off as innocent. This surprised me coming from you Fea, aren't you the one that didn't want to believe that LMP, Firefoot and I are innocents? Why Esty?

Now I've done my analysis of TGWBS and have little to add on what Mister Underhill preempted.

post 206 there is this part in it that bothers me

Please also note that I was correct in seeing LMP's death. I'm pretty sure that either morm of Firefoot will go next - so if either of you are the seer, make sure to drop a few hints, will you?

It seems that he's under the guise of an innocent trying to get the seer to come forward and low and behold the next night our seer is dead.

Also in this same post there is too much talk from him of him being innocent and he seems to try and identify himself with me a bit too much and I felt uneasy about this when it happened but kept waiting and watching.

Post 164 there is this paragraph

Hmm. Morm voted when two other people had two votes each, so it looked unlikely Cailin would die. He could still be a wolf, I guess, but looks neutral to me at the moment.
Firefoot and LMP are not wolves. Definite. There is simply no reason a wolf would willingly vote for one of their own on the first day when there was a serious chance of that wolf being voted off, no matter what Feanor claims

I moved down on his innocence list and listed LMP and Firefoot as definate. I think he could have seen that others thought I could be guilty and decided to see if I would be lynched but guess who dies the next two nights? Correct LMP then Firefoot.

So it would seem that either TGWBS is incredibly wolfish and enjoyes dropping hints or has been rather unlucky in his words and the wolves picked people that matched his innocence list. I wouldn't be sad about seeing him go today but if he is I strongly recommed a double lycnhing with somebody else as I don't find him as suspicious as others. Namely Fea and Encai.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Analysis of Underhill’s posts

Day 1:

First post – introductory, with character Ghân-undé-Ghân. Questions morm’s idea of voting.

Second post – questions Boro’s abrasive tone and Anguirel’s offering himself up. Assumes that wolves won’t be the quiet ones. Posits his own and Esty’s innocence.

Third post – votes for Anguirel because he offered himself up, mentions busyness as reason for limited posting and newbieness for uncertainty.


Day 2:

First post – mourns Ang’s death and the fact that he is suspected because of his vote. Asks innocents not to offer themselves in future. Points out that Cailín’s death cannot be credited to any of us except the hunter, thus making votes for her irrelevant. Analyzes the point of time for people’s votes. Pleads inexperience; top suspect is Fea.

Second post – tries unsuccessfully to find evidence about Cailín in posts 41 to 51

Third post – emphasizes inexperience and lack of knowledge of players’ styles. Questions Lhuna’s reasons for voting for him.

Fourth post – wonders whether voting late is advantage or disadvantage. Suspects Fea. Questions suspicion of Shelob.

Fifth post – explains computer problems as reason for less involvement on previous day. Understand reasons for Shelob votes; does not think Form is wolf; votes for Fea, though he says a vote for Shelob could save himself. Hopes that will prove his innocence.


Day 3:

First post – agrees with morm that Fea is probably not guilty. Suspects Enca more. Tries to understand wolves’ reason for killing LMP.

Second post – less convinced of Fea’s guilt. Increased suspicion of Form based on his voting for Underhill twice. Enca and Form are top suspects.

Third post – writes about lagging behind in experience and tactics. Votes for Formendacil, based on his voting pattern. Good thoughts on wolvish reasoning. Could also have voted for Enca.

Fourth post – would have voted for Enca had he known of the tie possibility.


Day 4:

First post – List of voting order. Gives convincing thoughts on Formy’s voting. Suspicion of tgwbs increases, which would exonerate Boromir. His voting early possible wolvish strategy? Tends to believe Boro’s story of playing seer to get suspicion away from morm. Agrees with my comments on involvement and wolvishness, which means he hardly suspects me. Fea and Enca top suspects. Speaks up for the double-lynching strategy.

Second post – analysis of tgwbs. Brings up some valid points which make him more suspicious.

Third post – agrees to morm’s chain analysis idea.

Fourth post – remarks to Fea on individualism.


I have done my best to look at Underhill’s posts objectively, though he and I have been in a parallel situation as newcomers to this game and have not suspected each other seriously. I know he is a talented writer who could probably make his devious posts sound genuine if he wanted to, but they seem sincere to me, especially when he describes his feelings of inexperience and bewilderment. He has gathered momentum as the game proceeded and has contributed good thoughts to the discussion. I don’t agree with him on his conclusions concerning Boromir and Fea, but I can see absolutely nothing in his posting or voting that looks wolvish to me. I know his dependability enough to make me think that he would attempt to do his “duty” more if he had the “responsibility” of being a wolf. He has not attempted to influence others noticeably, which I would also consider wolvish behaviour.

[Mister Underhill]

Okay, trying to run the math on this. Six villagers and one wolf left.

Case 1 - Double-lynching:

If we double-lynch tonight, we have a 2 in 7 chance of catching the wolf, or about a 29% chance. If we assume mine and morm's innocence, that takes us to a 2 in 5 chance -- 40%, as he's already said.

If we miss the wolf, however, we'll be down to 4 villagers and 1 wolf going into the night. By the end of the night, either we've got 3 villagers and 1 wolf, or 3 villagers and 2 wolves. That leaves us with a 25% chance in the former case and a disastrous state of affairs in the second -- only a 2 in 5 chance of catching a wolf and even if successful, one wolf still alive to wreak havoc.


Case 2 - Single-lynching:

If we do a single lynching tonight, that gives us a 1 in 7 chance of catching a wolf, or a 14% chance. Again assuming mine and morm's innocence, it's actually a 1 in 5 chance, or 20%.

If we miss the wolf, we'll be down to 5 villagers and 1 wolf going into the night. By the end of the night, we'll have either 4 villagers and 1 wolf, or 4 villagers and 2 wolves. That leaves us with a 20% chance of catching a wolf in the former case, and only a slightly less disastrous state of affairs than in the double-lynch scenario -- only a 1 in 3 chance of catching a wolf on Day 5, but with an extra villager around to help string things out.

All told, it looks like tonight is as good a time as any to take our shot on a double-lynching, since we have nearly an even chance of catching a wolf. Assuming I'm right about morm, that is. I don't expect anyone to take it on faith that we're innocent. If you factor that out, we have a 29% chance of catching a wolf with a double-lynching, versus a 14% chance with a single-lynching -- with the possibility of a cursed villager in the mix looming.

For my own part, I'm confident in morm (though my review is still pending), I know I'm innocent, and I'll even go out on a limb and say Esty looks pretty clean to me. That raises the odds even more from my point of view to an even 50% chance of catching the wolf out. I don't think the odds will be so favorable again, and I'm willing to roll the dice on a double-lynching.

Now the question is, who to double-lynch, and how to make it come off without wolves tripping us up.

EDIT: Cross-posting, so some of this is redundant.

[Mister Underhill]

Originally Posted by Fea

As I first thought that 'Mer was the Seer, then transferred it to B88 for a time, I don't at all trust in my own intuition in this village.

If what you say is true, you didn't follow the lead of any of your Seer candidates in voting, though you had the chance to. What gives?

Edit: Looking at it again, maybe I misread you there. By " 'Mer " did you mean Eomer? In which case you did follow his lead on Day One. But does the Seer get a dream before the first day starts?

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Originally Posted by Mister Underhill

Now the question is, who to double-lynch, and how to make it come off without wolves tripping us up.

Well, since there's only one wolf tonight, we do have a good chance. Unfortunately, tgwbs' early vote for himself could mess up some possibilities, if the wolf also votes against the double lynching. The most difficult part will be to agree on the two to lynch. I doubt that we will manage to get the six that are left to vote three each for two people, so we will need to gather two votes each for two suspects or two votes each for three suspects. Either way, the double lynch works. The second possibility risks the wolf slipping through the net in the middle. So we should vote for the most suspicious people first and last.

Thanks for doing the complicated math, Undé!

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Begins the game fully in character, which is no problem at all, based on the fact that at the beginning of Day 1, it is rather expected to come in with "hi, I'm here, and I'm talking in character".

In this post, she takes offense to Boromir's slander, saying that either he is foolish, or wolvish. Claims that she has

no knowledge of anyone's secret inner life.

which tells us early that she's no Seer.

In this post, she gently teases LMP about his characterization.

In post 81, she contemplates the pluses and minuses of voting early based on time-zone.

In this post, she discusses the possibilities of voting seriously on the first day and decides that, due to lack of evidence, she will be voting at random.

Post 96 is a reminder to TGWBS that Lhuna's absence puts her on par with Shelob for too quiet for comfort.

Again she tells us that she is no Seer with

I can only hope that my random choice was guided, for I have not the wisdom to make a decision with the necessary foresight.

It is also in this post that she votes for Shelob and goes to bed.

She returns from her beauty sleep in post 148, mourning the deaths of the innocent Anguirel, and the valiant Eomer. She mentions to clear up confusion that her vote for Shelob was not due to silence, but due to random choice. She contemplates wolfish influence on Anguirel's death. She lists in order the voters: Shelob, Encai, Underhill, and Lhuna. She mentions that Shelob's vote may be due to randomness of choice. She suspects that one of the four is a wolf.

In post 158, she tells us that she's been rehashing events. She repeats her suspicion that there is at least one wolf in the group of Shelob, Encai, Underhill, and Lhuna. She discusses Shelob's early vote for Lhuna, wondering if it is wolvish, or random.

She returns to us once more in post 174, trying to piece together evidence. She hesitates to vote Underhill, as he echos her feelings as a new player so well. She examines the Anguirel-lynch group, noting Shelob's vote for Lhuna, Lhuna's vote for Underhill, and mentions that she doesn't have feelings either way about Encai, due to the ambiguous placement of her vote.

She mentions each villager in turn now:

mormegil is an uncertain candidate, with his suspicions that don't quite sound consistent to me.

Boromir's insults alone do not make him a candidate, but there are inconsistencies in his posts that make me pause.

Formendacil's suggestion that all of us not vote is in itself suspicious. His suspects are villagers whom I don't suspect, so he could be a wolf, but I don't have enough evidence yet.

Fea is unpredictable.

Firefoot defends Shelob, who is one of my top suspects.

tgwbs' arguments seem fairly sound to me; so far, I have no reason to suspect him.

LMP hasn't yet given me enough clues to his identity in his input so far.

She comments that her lack of knowledge of the Seer's identity is probably good, as that means the wolves probably don't know either.

In post 178 she votes again for Shelob, even though she mentions hesitation based on a two-day-running vote, in tandem with TGWBS both times. She goes to bed.

Post 205 she gets back. She bemoans the fate of two more dead innocents. She remembers the cursèd villager and contemplates what would happen should the curse be activated. She admits to being part of Shelob's death, and wishes to 'atone' for it. The post has little game-content, and is mostly talking about what a pity it is that we lost Shelob and LMP.

214 she's back again. She contemplates the identity of LMP's protectee the second night. She also mentions that she's still got no clue on who the Seer is. She comments that yes, she voted Shelob twice, but she points out that Weremendacil voted Underhillo twice, and Boro voted Formy twice also.

In post 220, she says that she almost abstained from voting Shelob based on lack of desire to be connected to TGWBS, also voting her twice. She decided to ignore him and vote her conscience.

In post 224, she renews the theory that a wolf voted for Anguirel. She admits her mistake with Shelob, and turns an eye toward Encai. She mentions that Encai voted an innocent twice and broke a tie thereby saving Fea on Day 2. She claims that Encai's vote created a band-wagon effect for Ang, and that Fea may be a wolvish companion. She also comments that all of this is speculation and she's not at all sure of it.

Back again in 235, she responds to the accusations of her overly-dramatic response to Lobby and LMP's deaths, saying that she was just getting into the spirit of it, but if it's asked, she'll gladly stop.

Post 240: She names a list of suspects: Fea, Encai, Formy, Lhuna. Contemplates early versus late votes once more.

In post 243 she decides to sleep on it.

This is where Firefoot's examination of her begins:

All right, I'll see what I can do.

Post 44

While she does not come out and say "I'm innocent," there are strong undertones of this. Strong emotions, phrases like "fellow villagers," etc. As far as words go, the gist of the meaning is "I'm not sure what I'm doing, I'll have to wait and see what happens before making any decisions." As Esty herself has confessed, she has a flair for the dramatic which makes this more difficult as dramatic tends to be something I look for in a wolf. Nothing conclusive here.

Post 51

She starts out defending herself to Boromir, who accused her on the grounds of "horrible sewing." Again, she states that she has no knowledge of what anyone else is and we don't have enough to judge people on, just words. This could be construed to look innocent or guilty, depending on how you look at it, and it comes down to the same Esty question - is she really not sure, an inexperienced wolf, or both?

Post 65

Some in-character response to LMP and a reiteration of the sentiment that she can't trust anyone. Same as 51 - could be made to look innocent or guilty.

Post 81

States that she will have to vote either early or late, and that it seems that her vote will be random as she has no real suspicions. Could be an innocent not sure of what's going on or a wolf not wanting to cast suspicions to soon to loudly.

Post 93

Repeats that her vote will be random as she has no idea how to form some suspicions. Same as above.

Posts 96-97

Votes for Shelob using a completely random method of the eenie meenie minie mo sort, hoping it was a good vote. If this wasn't her first ww game, I would be concerned, as generally it's better to vote for someone you think at least could be suspicious (I'd say). As it is, I'm not sure. This could be an easy way to hide.

Post 148

After some more dramatics (Esty, don't get me wrong. If dramatics and in-character stuff is your style of play, go for it. Look at Fea. ), she states for the first time that she thinks one of the wolves is probably among those who voted for Ang. In itself, this is not very suspicious; however, if she were a wolf, I think it would be safe to say that none of these four (now three) people she is accusing are wolves. From what we've seen so far of Esty, I wouldn't doubt that if she were a wolf in this game, caution would be her preferred style of play, not incriminating her fellow wolves any more than absolutely necessary to keep up appearances. And if her fellow wolf is Fea, as I suggested in my above post, this could work well.

Post 158

Repeats her suspicions of those four who voted for Ang; see above. She also mentions that Shelob's early vote for Lhuna is curious, and wonders what that might tell us about Shelob. She seems to be trying to cast some guilt on her, more deflection of attention.

Post 174

This is her first really substantial post of the game. She starts out repeating her suspicions of those four Ang-voters, though she doesn't seem to be very firm about those. For everyone else she names as being possibly suspicious, she seems to immediately negate that sentiment with a "but I'm not sure" or "there's not enough evidence." The only candidate she names as being wholly unsuspicious is TGBWS because his logic seems sound to her - who both days has voted with her consecutively for Shelob. She also does not identify Fea ("unpredictable") or LMP ("not enough information") as being particularly innocent or guilty. Interesting that she has not commented on at all the voting of me, LMP, and Morm for Cailin, neither to think we're innocent or guilty because of it, which just about everyone else has. It could have been an oversight, but I would think that it would factor in. This phrase, finishing her post, caught my eye just now: "So far I can't recognize the seer, but that's probably good. If I could, I'm sure the experienced wolves would as well!" Something about this turn of a phrase doesn't sit well with me. Now that I try to explain it, it doesn't work, but it made me go "What?"

Post 178

She votes for Shelob, having noticed that TGWBS has also voted for her. She mentions that she is hesitant to do so but goes ahead with it anyway because she is her greatest suspicion. Because of this, I don't think she would be a wolf with TGWBS, but it's possible. They could be bluffing, and with wolves able to talk all day, it would be easy enough for them to plan it. Hm...

Post 205

All dramatics. I don't think anything can be taken out of it.

Post 214

Most suspiciously, that's the post that's had me singing "Santa Claus is Coming to Town" all day... Seriously though: She defends her position of having voted for Shelob two days in row along with TGBWS. As support she mentions that Formen and Boromir have both voted for the same person as well - deflecting the spotlight off of her and TGWBS. I don't think she would deflect attention onto a fellow wolf like that, so if she is a wolf I dobut Formen or Boromir is as well. She also questions whether the wolves were actually going after the ranger or the person he was guarding. Genuine or an attempt to make it look like she doesn't know what the wolves are doing?

Post 220

She says that her vote for Shelob was made regardless of what TGWBS did because Shelob topped her suspect list, which is true enough. She had been suspicious of Shelob, though I suppose the wolves could have had Shelob targeted. That sounds a little far-fetched though, and it seems more likely that if she is a wolf, TGWBS is not her partner but possibly someone she attached herself to, or even someone with no intended connection at all.

Post 224

She goes back to her theory that one of the wolves voted for Ang, in particular looking at Encai. She also suggests a possible Encai/Fea partnership. Honest, or trying to distance herself from Fea?

Post 235

Here is where she comments on her own enjoyment of getting into a role a bit more and being rather dramatic. Whether she is innocent or guilty, I think this can be taken as written in good intent - meaning that any dramatics are not a sign of guilt.

Post 240

She states that her suspect list hasn't narrowed definitively, though she puts emphasis on Encai, Fea, Formendacil, and Lhuna. This could be starting to push the Fea/Esty theory.

Post 243

Says she will be back early for her, late in voting to cast vote. Nothing indicitive there.

So while a lot she says can be construed to look suspicious, or even flat out just does look suspicious, most of the possibilities for who she could be partnered with get to a far-fetched point. The one thing I have noticed is that she is very good at either staying out of the limelight in the first place or deflecting it once it gets there. I've not made my mind up yet.

Esty comes back in 260 with discomfort on morm's assertion that he and Firefoot are innocent. Not uncomfortable enough to suspect them a lot though. She's amused by the seriousness with which Firefoot analyzes her. "She takes me more seriously than I take myself." She mentions that Boromir's insistence on Formy is either that he's on to something, or he's just being stubborn. She says that Encai's vote for him could be one wolf saving another, meaning that Cai was trying to save Weredacil. She mentions Boromir's theory that Fea has been set up, but is not sold entirely on it. She addresses Fea's comment on her blog amusedly, saying that it's not like she would say anything besides "I'm innocent" on a blog viewed almost entirely by 'Downers.

She returns next post with a vote for Encai based on previous comments.

In 278, she posts spontaneous thoughts before analyzing dead-Firefoot's posts. Though she's sad that Lhuna was innocent, she claims relief that the suspicion of her is now gone. Going once more to her Ang-theory, she looks at Underhill and Encai. Underhill she doesn't suspect much, Encai, she does. She says that if Underhill was a wolf, he'd find a way to be more active. She says that she is inclined to listen to Boromir as he was right about Formendacil, and that Boromir says to suspect Encai. She plans to further examine the Fea-set-up theory.

In post 281, she's back! (note that I'm getting bored at this point and may begin using far more exclaimation points to amuse myself). She says that she thought Boromir was the Seer. She says that the facts can now be interpreted several ways as Boro wasn't. She comments that Boro could have been a gutsy wolf voting all along for Boro to garner trust from the villagers. Though that goes against her suspicion of Encai, she's not willing to rule it out. She wonders how the wolf recognized Firefoot.

In 283, she wonders more about Boromir, and how what if he was maybe pretending to be Seer to draw out the real one.

In 287 she comes out with a list of who she thinks is most likely to be guilty now, based on percentages:

100% innocent - me (The only one of whom I absolutely know)

90% innocent - Underhillo (reasons given above)

80% innocent - tgwbs (for seemingly good reasoning so far)

80% innocent - mormegil (also for seemingly good reasoning so far)

50% innocent/guilty - Fea (just because she's too confusing to get a grasp on)

very suspicious - Encaitare (for the reasons I gave yesterDay)

highly suspicious - Boromir88 (for the reasons given toDay)

She claims a strategy, but wants to wait to reveal it.

Back in 290, Esty credits Boromir with the "chutzpah" to dupe us all, a word that I've only just learned and was greatly amused at seeing. She admonishes him that none of us should be taking his words at face value and he should know better than to expect it. She again mentions her involvement in Shelob's death, saying that at the time, there was reason to suspect her.

In 306, she's back again! She admits to also already thinking of the pluses of double-lynching that Fea had no qualms about suggesting. Her two top suspects are Encai and Boromir. She discusses ways to vote to ensure a double-lynch.

In 310, she admits to the rationality of circle-analyzation and heads off to examine Mister Underhill. Her signature remains amusing.

In 313, she says she plans to get up early to vote late, thereby ensuring the presence of an innocent at the end of the Day to keep funny business from happening.

In 319, she yells at TGWBS for wasting his vote.

We have now reached the point of cross-posting. I have to read to catch up, but this is Esty from the beginning to now.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by mormegil

This surprised me coming from you Fea, aren't you the one that didn't want to believe that LMP, Firefoot and I are innocents? Why Esty?

There was no known Seer defending you, Footie, and LMP three days running. Even without a dream, Firefoot's not sloppy. If she'd have seen something that made her suspect Esty, she'd have made it clear. As it is, Esty's got three days of defense in her favor, with the only suspicion as "I'm not positive, but I'm pretty gosh-darned sure." Firefoot's pretty sure is most people's "I'm absolutely certain." Mind, I'll kick myself if she's guilty, but based on that nice lengthy dissection I just did, I don't think she is anyhow.

So it would seem that either TGWBS is incredibly wolfish and enjoyes dropping hints or has been rather unlucky in his words and the wolves picked people that matched his innocence list.

So should we double on Boromir and TGWBS?

Mister Underhill: yes, I meant Eomer. But very shortly after I thought "Hey, maybe his insistence on looking for clues might be TOREstel in WWJ all over again." he died. It was somewhat ironic. But you'd probably have had to follow WWJ to understand my quote just now. And with Boromir, I didn't start thinking he was Seer until the late late hours of last night when I was reading the phantom's first narration post. That theory was smashed to bits when I saw Firefoot's name.

PS: the bolding in my Esty post is purely accidental, but it'll be a royal pain to go fix it, so you'll just have to deal.

[Mister Underhill]

morm has posted often and at length. He made the first player post of the game, in fact. Due to sheer volume, my approach is going to be to take an overview of his posts, only pointing out any suspicous or otherwise notable behavior at need, rather than doing a blow-by-blow summary as has been done for others.

He is the first to propose a plan -- the notorious "random" plan in #49. Though I'm still a bit confused on exactly how this was supposed to be executed, I think I start to understand its intent now. It seems a sincere idea -- if all villagers vote randomly and the wolves have an agenda, then in theory the wolves' agenda might be visible in their voting.

In #56 he thinks he and Eomer may have spotted something...

Later, he backs off of his own plan after it is met with confusion and/or criticism, acknowledging that most Day One plans are shot down anyway. He shows signs in #87 of his overall strategy -- playing his cards close to the vest. Overall I find this strategy fairly trustworthy. He doesn't go out of his way to cast suspicion unless he thinks he has good reason. Holds what he thinks he knows to keep the wolves out of the loop. Unfortunately, it sometimes keeps the innocent villagers out of the loop too...

Later admonishes other players for casting votes based on silence, especially so early in the game -- a position I tend to agree with. All of our "suspicious silents" have so far turned out to be innocents.

By the end of Day One, morm laid out a sensible -- especially by Day One standards -- case against Cailin and made equally sensible-seeming criticism of other players' picks. Did he get lucky with this Day One wolf vote? Could it possibly have been a bid to gain early credibility? It's a possibility I considered, but don't put much stock in. His was the first Cailin vote and from that point of view there didn't seem to be much to gain from it if he were a fellow wolf. If you consider that he also pointed the finger straight at Formendacil in his Cailin vote post (#122), this seems to point to morm's innocence beyond much doubt. If he's a wolf, it's an extremely bold move to out both fellow wolves on Day One -- especially when there wasn't much suspicion of either -- and I give him credit.

He makes what seems to be an honest error in his early Day Two analysis, but quickly spots it and corrects it (#146 and 147). Keeps the heat on Form, though he ultimately won't vote for him on this day. In fact, the day is surprisingly thin on analysis from morm. He says he has suspicions of Fea but probably won't vote for her, then later when he returns he ends up voting Fea after all, for somewhat cryptic reasons. This leads at least some players to think he may be the Seer.

On Day Three, he gives a seemingly level-headed and convincing assessment of the previous day's and night's events in #204.

In #211 he does a surprising about-face on Fea, outlining a possible scenario in which she is being set up by the wolves. Correctly predicts that either Firefoot or himself will die in the night.

He remains cryptic throughout the day -- though gives a convincing reasoning for why -- but keeps the heat on Form, especially with his post-by-post analysis in #236. Ultimately he votes Enca, claiming to be hoping to create a double-lynching scenario with Lhuna's help. He links himself strongly with Firefoot throughout the day by saying they are both innocent -- something which Firefoot does not object to.

Today, he's made sensible interpretations of Firefoot's remarks, making sure to keep Fea honest in her claims of having been dreamt of by the seer and her accusations of yours truly. His call for a daisy-chain investigation seems sincere enough. Proposes a double-lynching strategy to try to take advantage of decent odds for catching a wolf.

My assessment: if morm is a wolf, he's playing an extremely bold game, outing both his fellow wolves on Day One, voting for one wolf and then being instrumental in taking down the other one. He's led the charge in analysis and rarely makes accusations without proof. Overall seems to be playing a sincere game.

Of course, the nagging flipside of this is, how does he know so much? Was he just lucky, putting his finger on two wolves on Day One? Having been so astute, how is it that he's still alive?

If he's a wolf, he's playing the trickiest game I can imagine and has nerves of steel. At this stage, I have to believe he's innocent. Nothing in his posts -- other than remarkably astute wolf-hunting behavior -- leads me to suspect him.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

My suggested double for lynching remains Boro and Enca. But we're going to get a three-way vote, I presume, so the first voters should go for their conviction. The last ones should try to even things up so that there are at least two people with two votes each, but none with three.

So far, we have one vote, tgwbs for himself.

[mormegil]

I'm starting to think about the Boro/Encai and while I've been highly suspicious of Encai since nearly the beginning I'm wondering now if Boromir used the ploy of pretending to be seer to have us believe him on this day. The reason being if we believe he is genuine (which he could be but I'm viewing it now as he is not) then we think him innocent because he tried to protect the seer. However if Encai had been a wolf then she would have picked up on that and killed him last night...right???? I'm notorious for my crazy ideas and theories so I guess what I'm saying is that it seems to be a waste to vote for both. I would rather see Feanor or TGWBS and one of the Boromir/Encai duo.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Let's not kill me, hm? I promise that's not a cool idea.

Morm... what changed your mind from "I think Fea was framed" to "let's kill her anyways"?

[Encaitare]

It's taken me a bit to read through all the posts and I have to go out again in about 5 minutes. So just a couple of things I'd like to throw out there...

1. I had no idea Formen was a wolf -- I thought he might be the Seer, since he voted for Underhill twice when there was really little suspicion cast on him otherwise. I alluded to this idea in a couple of other posts when I said that Formen's voting was interesting and we might want to watch it closely. Obviously I was wrong about that one.

2. Fea wonders why I saved her. For the record, I didn't "save" her at all. There's nothing to be curious about. I merely thought that Shelob was more suspicious than Fea. I always end up voting late due to my time zone.

3.

Originally Posted by morm

I'm wondering now if Boromir used the ploy of pretending to be seer to have us believe him on this day.

This was tied into the theory I had going in point 1. I thought that since Formen might be the Seer, Boromir couldn't be, and that he was a wolf pretending to be.

I have to go tutor now; I'll be back in 2 hours or so (7 PM EST). I hope you all vote wisely toDay.

[Mister Underhill]

Let me see if I can sum up top suspects:

Esty - B88 and Enca
morm - Fea and (Enca or tgwbs, leaning towards Enca?)
tgwbs - Enca and himself! (alternatively suspects Fea and Mister U)
B88 - opposes double-lynching, thinks Fea is being set up, hasn't named his top suspect for the day I don't think. May suspect Enca?
Fea - willing to go along with double lynching, hasn't named suspects AFAICT, but trusts Esty and morm.
Enca - quiet all day, w/notice. We're approaching the 5pm EST deadline quickly here, so we ought to hear from Enca soon.
Mister Underhill - Fea and (Enca or tgwbs)

Sorry, Fea, there's just too much doubt surrounding you. Maybe B88 can convince me otherwise once he finally names his suspects.

I'd probably have let tgwbs off the hook until he made that self-vote. I can't think of any sensible reason to do it except as a desperate wolf gambit.

Enca I suspect based on the voting record. Of all the days to be AWOL! Is it wolfish laying-low or the fickle hand of RL -- or both? Whatever she posts when she arrives will be telling. Plus, who's supposed to be doing analysis of her?

EDIT -- D'oh - massive cross-posting... will read up and reassess ASAP.

[mormegil]

Yes Fea but still something isn't sitting right and you're our resident enigma and finding out for sure would clear up some air.

I thought that I already answered this question Fea. Your simply such an unknown factor and lately you seem oddly sincere and as you stated if we believe you to be innocent that's when we should lynch you But there is still the chance that we choose TGWBS.

I just want everybody to know how horribly confused I am right now and I must say that I am glad Lhuna is gone because to add one more in the mix would probably send in mental overload and fry my feeble brain.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Here's morm's suggested list again:

mormegil
the guy who be short
Encaitare
Boromir88
Feanor of the Peredhil
Estelyn Telcontar
Mister Underhill

That means tgwbs should be analyzing Enca. However, since he already voted, I have no idea if he'll be back again toDay.

[Mister Underhill]

Dang -- two top candidates have escaped in-depth analysis. tgwbs would theoretically have taken Enca. Doesn't help his case that he decided to drop the ball there.

We should have caught that Enca wouldn't be around to do Boro -- and now new theories about him are coming to the fore.

To clean up the above a bit:

morm - (Fea or tgwbs) and (B88 or Enca)
Enca - seems to suspect B88 above all others, but we still need to hear more.

I'm as confused as you are, morm, though it seems we can narrow to at least four top suspects:

Fea
B88
Enca
tgwbs

I think Fea almost has to be on the list. If she were an innocent villager, she could have been a lot more helpful; instead, each day has seen her surrounded by confusion and doubt. She makes statements one way, then has to recant or back up her statements with more explanation. She may be innocent after all, but she's on almost everyone's list.

The other three are a coin-toss at this point.

If anyone can hop on some quick Boro and/or Enca analysis, that would be great. My next few hours are going to be tough until the evening vote starts to roll around.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I'm sorry, I'm no longer alert enough for additional analysis - I refer you to my previous posts on both Boromir and Encaitare for my thoughts on them. I'm off to get a few hours of sleep now so that I can come back early to vote (that's late in terms of voting deadline...). G'night all!

[Boromir88]

I'll go along with the double-lynching, since it seems as everyones all gung-ho.

I'm going to say you should lynch me and tgwbs. I can't stress enough to you that I'm innocent, but apparently only my death will get you people to see. I think tgwbs may be a wolf. He hasn't actually been all that helpful if you think about it. First, he asks mormegil why he's so suspicious of Form, then simply votes for Lhuna for really no reason...or the same reason he voted for Shelob. Now he's not helpful in analyzing Encai, it appears that his "suicide" comes off as a bold attempt to try do what I did. So, right now I think me and tgwbs should be up for a double-lynching.

But, I do say, let's talk some more. If you don't think tgwbs to be a wolf, then it should be me and someone else, we can't afford to lose two innocents here. In any event I've come to the decision that I can no longer be of any good to anyone here, despite the fact that I've been one of the most helpful.

So, my suggestion would be lynch...

me/tgwbs

or

me/someone else

[Boromir88]

I'll be quite honest in that, I'm getting quite irritated (it's a carry over effect from last time when I didn't believe morm, he still haunts me!) So, I'm just going to give it up...

++Boromir

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Mister Underhill

Fea - willing to go along with double lynching, hasn't named suspects AFAICT, but trusts Esty and morm.

I didn't name actual suspects? I could have sworn... Oh well, I've got too much work to do to go back and check at this point, but I could have sworn that I made it apparent that I've wanted Boromir dead since Day One. I have a rather fixed plan of voting for him tonight. I would really like to see Boromir and TGWBS lynched. They are my top suspects, and have been all day. I really though I'd said that...

In any case, they've already helped us out, voting for themselves. It means that we don't have to worry about them showing up late to stop the vote.

But also, Encai worries the aich ee double hockey sticks out of me. If TGWBS isn't one of the lynchees, please let Encai be.

*returns to reading Silence by Shusaku Endo... chapter 7, doing good!*

[mormegil]

I just had an epiphany and realized that Boromir is most likely innocent! Let's remember one of the most solid pieces of evidence we had on Formendacil--his "insulted" reaction to Boromir's vote that is not something that a wolf duo would do. It was a definate slip on Formendacil's part not orchestrated. Therefore I feel that he is most likely innocent plus I sympathize with his frustration. That narrows my list down and I ask that nobody else vote for him!

[mormegil]

Sorry for the double but I'm really scrambling here, busy "delivering messages" and trying to go home yet finish some analysis. I'm more convinced than ever of TGWBS's guilt. Look at what Formendacil says about him in 227 and 165 not convinced of innocence but yet not guilty. Then look at 215 of TGWBS he's on the "slightly innocent" list of TGWBS and he's the only one. I see these two in cahoots. Let's get one person to vote for him. And then we can still decide who is the second because I really don't want to see Boromir go now.

[mormegil]

mormegil
the guy who be short
Encaitare
Boromir88
Feanor of the Peredhil
Estelyn Telcontar
Mister Underhill

Here is our trusty list, now both TGWBS and Boromir have voted for themselves but nobody else has voted. I propose the next person should be Encai and she should vote for TGWBS bringing him to 2 votes and 4 remaining. Feanor vote for Encai so 3 remaining and Esty vote Feanor that would leave Mister Underhill and me to mop up. Also it will buy us time to decide who we want to vote for. Probably Mister Underhill should be second last and vote for Esty, if all of this happens everybody but Mister U and I should have votes and the wolf will need to comply to not be seen and we can still have a variable vote by me at the end. I think it sounds solid enough.

So in sum and in order of who should vote (if possible)

Encai vote TGWBS
Feanor vote Encai
Esty vote Feanor
Mister U vote Esty
Mormegil vote...will be determined

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by el señor debajo de la colina

Enca I suspect based on the voting record. Of all the days to be AWOL! Is it wolfish laying-low or the fickle hand of RL -- or both?

My absence was not a wolvish ploy. I had driver's ed, then stopped in for a quick post, then tutored until 7, and my dad was on the computer until now.

I know it's a little late, and some people have already voted, but I will do the analysis of Boromir as asked. It'll be up soon.

[Mister Underhill]

So just to make sure I understand -- we're talking Shorty first and for sure, with a vote held in the pocket to decide the second lynching, which is still up for grabs.

I'm okay with this. The more I reflect on tgwbs's posts and his behavior following the analysis, culminating in his self-vote, he's looking more and more guilty. Shorty, if you're innocent, I wish you would have kept your cool and stayed in the debate a while longer.

My gut has said that B88 is not a wolf. And in addition to your last minute epiphanies and analysis, I think if we're leaning towards tg as guilty, that tends to make Boro seem even more innocent, since they've been at each others' throats. Still, we'll see what Enca's promised analysis shows, if anything.

[Encaitare]

DAY 1

#48: Generally rude and jokes around, randomly accusing Lhuna, Esty, and the nonexistent SaucepanMan.

#69: Continues to be belligerent. Says that despite Anguirel's vote for him, he does not suspect him back. Says that we all deserve to die if we lynch him -- the first of many such statements. Suspects Lhuna, Esty, and TGWBS.

#70: Replies to Esty, continuing to bash her sewing. Says she is being hypocritical by voting at random and then attacking him for doing the same.

#105: Says it is stupid for a wolf to stay quiet, or for the accused not to defend themselves. Therefore he does not want to lynch a quiet person. Says LMP, Formendacil, and Feanor are wolves; no longer suspects Esty.

#110: Says his accusations are beneficial because they provoke reactions. Gives his thoughts on people; in essence, thinks Eomer is innocent, thinks Cailin's vote for him was foolish but not lupine, thinks Ang is noble and foolish but not a wolf, wants to hear more from Lhuna and Shelob, thinks Esty is confused but innocent, vaguely suspects Firefoot and Mr. U and wants to hear more from them, thinks TGWBS is cleared for the day because of his early vote, thinks LMP wants to lynch him, thinks Fea and LMP are in league, votes for Formendacil. Thinks the following are innocent: Anguirel, Cailin, Eomer, Estelyn, tgwbs.

If Boromir were a wolf, it's a pretty safe move to put one fellow wolf on an innocence list whilst accusing the other. Perhaps it's not logical to vote for a wolf on the first day, but they could have been going for that kind of relationship in which they would play off one another in such a way that if one died, the other could fall back on the defense that he helped lynch a wolf. And if it turns out TGWBS is a wolf and Boromir is innocent, then he is just highly intuitive!

#111: cross posted with Firefoot and replaces his suspicion of her with suspicion for Enca for being too quiet.

#115: Says again that his accusations get reactions which might make the wolves slip up.

DAY 2

#154: Says that out of Firefoot, Morm, and LMP, one might be a wolf, although they are probably innocent. He says...

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm also suspicious of anyone trying to write off who's innocent and who's not, because we can't tell, and it's stupid to assume anyone's innocent, you're only fooling yourself.

A far cry from declaring himself a known innocent! Goes on to say that Enca and Mr. U look the most suspicious, and Fea is either a wolf or likely to die "because it just seems like that happens to people who vote for me...I wonder why, maybe because I'm innocent and if you vote for me you deserve to die!"

#155: Responds in agreement to Fea's statement not to underestimate how bold the wolves may be. Refers to her as "Miss Wolf".

#171: Suspects Formendacil (still holding to his Day 1 vote), Fea (outright says she's a wolf again), and Firefoot (because she is getting off easily with no one suspecting her, and writes off people as innocent). Then states that he is automatically innocent because he has never voted wrong yet. Thinks Lhuna is playing too dumb to be a wolf.

#175:

Originally Posted by B88

But, to say the way they voted the day prior makes them automatically innocent, is something that I say is wrong.

All this self-contradiction is the sort of thing that makes me uneasy.

#176: Thinks that those who vote for Lhuna and Shelob are suspicious.

#177: Votes for Formen again.


DAY 3

#207: Reiterates the fact that he has "never been wrong" because he said that Anguirel, Eomer, and Shelob were all innocent.

#226: Thinks Lhuna may be a wolf. Thinks the wolves are trying to set up Fea. Says that those who push for Fea's lynching are suspicious. Thinks the other wolf may be Mormegil.

#229: Replies to Formen's thought that Boromir is not wolvish but just misguided in his voting for Formen. Boro says he's on the right trail, and voted for Formen because he was not sure about any other candidates.

#234: Clears up the Saucepan Man thing, says he assumed Sauce was in the game. (I confess that I thought he was too at first.) Says he suspects Formen and Enca the most. Makes this foolish (and I believe, telling) statement:

Originally Posted by B88

Enca, it's pretty clear I'm innocent, and if you vote for me you'll end up dying, that's just the way it is. It's a sign that you don't vote for a known innocent.

#248: Says Fea is either pulling a bold bluff or being set up by the wolves. States:

Originally Posted by B88

I also suspect that with high suspicions of me early the Seer has already dreamed of me, which makes me innocent, so of course you don't want to get rid of me.

Votes for Formendacil.

#257: Claims we'll all pay if he dies. Suggests hanging Formendacil one day and Enca the next if he ends up getting hanged himself. Thinks Enca is trying to save Formen. Says he is not trying to drag out the Seer as Fea suggested.

#259: Essentially calls us all stupid.


DAY 4

#285: Explains how he came to suspect Formendacil. Suspects Enca and Esty, in that order. Tells us yet again how innocent he is, stating that a wolf would not vote so steadily for a fellow wolf as he did for Formen. This doesn't quite make it for me because I recall how in a past village the last werewolf kept saying how he helped lynch both the known wolves. It was a clever ploy and he was not killed! Could B88 be doing this here?

#288: Says he was trying to disguise himself as the Seer, which I thought he had been doing. Says it's safe to say that Firefoot dreamed of him.

#289: Implies that Estelyn is a wolf wanting to get rid of him for being a threat to the wolves.

#293: Says theories about wolves backstabbing one another are "crazy and ludicrous"... I think that it would be a good idea. Then one could hide behind the defense of having killed a wolf. Says he didn't suspect Lhuna and Shelob... except he did suspect Lhuna (post #226). Says again that Fea is being set up. Is no longer as suspicious of Esty.

#295: Says the comment about how if Enca votes for him she will die was a joke because "people who vote for me end up dying because they're voting for a known innocent and that's something you shouldn't do." Doesn't want a double-lynching of Enca and himself.

#298: Wants to sacrifice himself to allow an extra day to catch the wolf.

#301: Presents further reasoning for his sacrifice in case the double lynching fails, i.e. Enca is not a wolf. Emphasizes the importance of safety in numbers.

#309: Suspects TGWBS.

#311: Nothing important, says he will analyze Fea as asked. Says she's being set up again.

#320: Says TGWBS is being noble in sacrificing himself, but it might be a bluff. Still opposes the double-lynching.

#322: Presents possible outcomes (aka "all that could go wrong") of a double-lynching. Recognizes the possibility that the Cursed Villager is still alive.

#343: Suddenly is willing to go ahead with the double-lynching because everyone else wants it. Is he a wolf deciding that to continue opposing it would be too suspicious? Says to lynch himself and possibly TGWBS.

#344: Votes for himself.

There.

On the whole, Boromir's constant repitition of the same statements (such as: I'm so innocent! ... Fea's being set up! ... You'll die if you vote for me!) suggests to me that he's not quite as helpful as he appears to be with his large number of posts. And the threats and such don't help either. I suggest that he has been hiding behind this pugnacious mask since Day 1 (as we all noted by his attitude, insulting man from Dor-Lomin that he is), and made a deal with Formendacil that he (Boromir) would vote for him (Formen) to make himself look innocent.

Also, Boromir flip-flops here and there. First, he says that no one can be innocent for sure; then he constantly states that he is a "known innocent". He agrees with Fea that the wolves will be bold, and then dismisses the idea of bluffing, backstabbing wolves as "crazy". He opposes the double-lynching, and then when no one agrees, changes his mind.

Originally Posted by morm

Let's remember one of the most solid pieces of evidence we had on Formendacil--his "insulted" reaction to Boromir's vote that is not something that a wolf duo would do. It was a definate slip on Formendacil's part not orchestrated.

It could have been just that -- a slip. Or, perhaps it was part of their plan to make Formen look super-guilty and Boro super-innocent.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Mr. Underhill.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Mister Underhill

So just to make sure I understand -- we're talking Shorty first and for sure, with a vote held in the pocket to decide the second lynching, which is still up for grabs.

Correct I keep the vote for the end. We may actually find some wolfish behavior before the end. We are now just waiting for Encai to begin the voting.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by mormegil

So in sum and in order of who should vote (if possible)

Encai vote TGWBS
Feanor vote Encai
Esty vote Feanor
Mister U vote Esty
Mormegil vote...will be determined

So we set it up that TGWBS definately dies and leave you to decide who the other one is?

Much as I trust you morm, I'm not certain that I'm comfortable with giving you supreme power on this one. I just... can't... stop... my crazy question-everything side. I'm really bad at dropping issues, as I'm sure you'll have noticed. I would prefer a vote thus:

We know the two who will die (TGWBS and ______ ?) and we set up the vote, say

Encai = ______
Fea = TGWBS (I want to make sure I vote for someone I actually think wolfy)
Underhill = ______

With Mormegil and Esty, if possible, coming in to make certain it stays tied. Is that plausible?

Because I'd prefer to know who's going to die in advance, instead of (once again, as much as I trust you morm), leaving it up to you, on the odd chance that my over-worked brain is wrong about your innocence. I can't for the life of me remember if you were ever officially cleared, or if it was just accepted that we should trust you.

And I know I cross-posted a lot... I've been distracted from this post by so many things...

[mormegil]

I thought my voting record, the fact that I exposed two wolves, and the Firefoot's (the seer) continued statements of my innocence would prove my innocence. I seem to be the most innocent and therefore my reliable to trust. Esty on the other hand is not proven innocent by any means. Firefoot only said she didn't think her guilty but the last day still questioned her. If I am still alive tomorrow feel free to lynch me but please trust me in this case. I'm still not sure who the second person will be. Perhaps there won't even be one. I'm not 100% decided yet and probably will ask both Esty and Mr U for counsel in the matter. For this to work we need a known innocent at the helm and I'm the best candidate.

Edit: Fea please stick with the voting I outlined.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Okay. I'll be nice and follow the rules like a good little girl.

Is there any way to have certainty though, of who's going to die? I'd like it to be either TGWBS and Boromir88, or TGWBS and Encai. I'm still by no means convinced of Boromir. I just... am stuck on him. I can't make the feeling go away. In any case, I've got some more homework to do, so I'll stick my head in in a bit and probably vote then.

[Mister Underhill]

I, for one, am willing to put morm in the driver's seat. It's a risk, of course, but of all the villagers left he seems far the most likely to be innocent. Also, if he's a wolf driving the boat, he has no end-game. If he were to orchestrate taking down three innocents tonight (double-lynching plus a wolf-slaying), that'd leave him down 3 to 1 -- or worst case scenario, 3-2 if he bagged a cursed -- where he would be the prime candidate for lynching. The numbers just don't seem to be there for him to be a wolf.

I'm way up in the air right now about the other three: Boro and his scattershot tactics, Fea the Controversial, and Enca "I've been quietly key in several votes but it's all innocent, really!"

Keep posting everyone, I need more information.

[Mister Underhill]

Ai, just realized also that we never got an in-depth analysis of Fea because Boro folded -- while still proclaiming her as a victim of a wolf-setup.

But we have great analyses of the least suspected villagers...

[mormegil]

I did a brief overview of Encai though I have not yet of Fea. I haven't had time to post anything about Encai but she has only 13 or so post so it didn't take too long. Fea on the other hand may be a bit longer.

Edit: and speaking of Encai why hasn't she voted?

[Encaitare]

Hopefully I have made my reasoning clear in my analysis of Boromir's posts. If he is innocent, then shame on me; I will have been wrong yet again. Yet please take note that all of my votes have been made for good reasons, and I am not the only one to have voted for only known innocents or those whose identities we do not yet know -- far from it. ToDay's vote will be for one whom I genuinely suspect:

++ BOROMIR88

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by morm

Edit: and speaking of Encai why hasn't she voted?

Cross-posted with you, morm. I was reviewing the thread, hence my vote came later than you expected. My apologies.