Tol-in-Guarhoth CIX - Ten Year Anniversary Game: Dead Thread

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So yes, I agree, if it is going to be this kind of unanimous bandwagon.

Add: and there are reasonable grounds to believe the living will interpret our extra-vote to Nilp or Shasta (I don't trust either a bit) really meaning that Greenie is innocent - and only that.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It seems, after all, a situation where our vote hasn't any power. So yes, I agree, if it is going to be this kind of unanimous bandwagon.

Well, it isn't clear yet. Like three people voted, but now Eomer is disputing that, and wanting to do a counter-bandwagon. And you have experienced on your own skin how it is still possible to get total turnover at any point in this game... there are still many left to vote. I guess we'll see in a while.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Add: and there are reasonable grounds to believe the living will interpret our extra-vote to Nilp or Shasta (I don't trust either a bit) really meaning that Greenie is innocent - and only that.

Don't see why they should interpret it as anything else. Granted, FF's post is fairly random, but I don't understand what else should they think. Both Nilp and Shasta are fairly random players, too (i.e. they haven't been the talk of the day etc.)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well, it isn't clear yet.
...
And you have experienced on your own skin how it is still possible to get total turnover at any point in this game...

Therefore I said "IF it is going to be this kind of unanimous bandwagon".

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Eomer

Nerwen has already voted for Loslote. We could test the theory by lynching someone else today? Or is that stupid?

I am becoming increasingly curious about what this guy is up to.

[Nogrod]

I'm not going to make any trouble with this any more toDay if the bandwagon is clear, but I am asking how much can we trust in them reading it right?

Nerwen says in her second last post:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

If we all (or most of us) vote for Lottie it might actually be possible to follow Nilp's suggestion for how to arrange the bonus votes. I'llhave to leave organising this to the rest of you, as I'm running out of time and it's very late, or rather early, here.

And she doesn't even mention Firefoot's elaboration at all - and no ne else has paid any attention to it either... but us here in the Dead Thread.

So if there is fex. a rivalling suggestion as to how to send information (a well-wishing person decides to make it as s/he has lost Firefoot's suggestion like Nerwen clearly did), which one do we choose to follow then?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I am becoming increasingly curious about what this guy is up to.

My thoughts as well...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm not going to make any trouble with this any more toDay if the bandwagon is clear, but I am asking how much can we trust in them reading it right?

Nerwen says in her second last post: And she doesn't even mention Firefoot's elaboration at all - and no ne else has paid any attention to it either... but us here in the Dead Thread.

So if there is fex. a rivalling suggestion as to how to send information (a well-wishing person decides to make it as s/he has lost Firefoot's suggestion like Nerwen clearly did), which one do we choose to follow then?

Well, I hope they will now follow this, since FF just brought it up again:

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Also does anyone have any thoughts on the voting schema for guiding the Dead vote that I posted? Especially if it ends up being a landslide vote today, the Dead aren't going to be influencing it anyway, so it would be good to get some information from their vote if possible. Seems like we should figure it out sort of soon, too, before they start voting en masse.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well, I hope they will now follow this, since FF just brought it up again:

Good of her. At least she is trying in the actual moment of clear need - and that speaks good of her (unlike coming up with abstract schemes beforehand without knowing if they're helpful or not or whether they hinder our best interests or not )

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nog

Good of her. At least she is trying in the actual moment of clear need - and that speaks good of her (unlike coming up with abstract schemes beforehand without knowing if they're helpful or not or whether they hinder our best interests or not )

The scheme was clearly helpful and not at all abstract. If everyone had simply been willing to rationally recognize the benefits and say, "Okay, we're doing this," then there would've no longer been any fears about how it might be misused or worries about people not being clear enough etc. etc.

Any fogginess was purely the result of people needlessly refusing to hop on board from the outset.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Ha, have you folks just seen Lottie's post on the thread? Either she's completely lost it, poor Wolf (wait till she learns I wasn't the Seer), or she is pulling some totally elaborate scheme (not likely?). Unless we have a total Cobbler in her.

Originally Posted by Loslote

My pack killed Rune and Legate (I would like to take the credit for figuring out that Legate was likely the Seer, thank you, I was pretty pleased with that. Can't believe he got the info out anyway)

Echoing her, "I would like to take the credit for totally making her think I was the Seer, thank you, I am pretty pleased with that."

The only nagging question is: really. Why would she tell the villagers the extra info: that is, the info of whom did her pack kill and whom did the other pack kill? Why give the village extra weapons? What do you think?

[Nogrod]

This is actually pretty precious - even if my first thought was whether there is a cobbler after all - but probably not.

It will be interesting to think about those kill choices she "confesses" as to whether they could actually hold and/or can we draw any conclusions from them.

[the phantom]

Can't wait to comb through Lottie's post later. Doubtless there will be truth mixed with fiction, as she's probably been plotting this ever since she was outed...

I'm glad she didn't go quietly. Whether her tactic works or not, she's certainly made things more fun.

(edit: & Vidal is a moron, he's begged to get his second yellow a couple times now)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Any fogginess was purely the result of people needlessly refusing to hop on board from the outset.

LEt's discuss this post-game the next, shall we? (I admit, I kept nagging on it, sure, couldn't help myself because I'm right , but let's drop it until after the game?)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

(edit: & Vidal is a moron, he's begged to get his second yellow a couple times now)

Thanks for reminding me. I had totally forgotten the game is already on! *goes to see it*

[Aganzir]

Can we have a pack containing Lottie and Eomer?

I wouldn't automatically dismiss the possibility that Nerwen is a lover who made a lucky guess, but Lottie's role is so clear that I think checking Mac tonight will be a good idea nonetheless.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Agan

Can we have a pack containing Lottie and Eomer?

Of course I could be wrong (we don't know that much at this point), but I've had those two together in all my theoretical packs.

Firefoot could be a Wolf. Or Lottie could be painting her as a Wolf because she wants her pack to kill her but does not want the Ranger to protect her (i.e. she actually suspects her of being the Seer & the Legate-Seer thing is a clever ruse).

[A Little Green]

My, my. This is getting interesting. Certainly, Lottie's confession makes it more likely that a) Nerwen is telling the truth and b) Mac is thus a wolf too.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Agan

Can we have a pack containing Lottie and Eomer?

Well, Eomer was certainly trying to steer the lynch away from her.

[Aganzir]

Well Legate, she'll find out you were not the seer as soon as we empower Nilp or Shasta.

Also, regarding my idea for the Dead Thread Summary, I think it can wait until end of NIGHT. After all, we don't want to make a wolf's stay here any easier.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

The only nagging question is: really. Why would she tell the villagers the extra info: that is, the info of whom did her pack kill and whom did the other pack kill? Why give the village extra weapons? What do you think?

Mac is dead and whether he's actually a wolf or not, she thinks so and figured Firefoot's death would put her pack in the lead. It's worth sharing their kill, I feel, especially if they don't implicate anyone in particular.

Although it makes me wonder - presumably Lottie's pack killed Rune and Legate, thinking the latter was the seer. Greenie was the only person whom Legate's death implicated. Meanwhile Mac and Firefoot's supposed pack killed phantom and Rikae, and while the former makes sense, Rikae died with Lottie as her apparent top suspect (although maybe Firefoot got scared of her, as would just be expected).

Okay I am getting yelled at for werewolfing so exit Agan.

[Nogrod]

One thing I might say (having just spent a little thought of Lottie's rant while the half-time of the match).

We might believe that Lottie actually thought that Firefoot is a wolf for there certainly is rivalry between the packs and they do not want to go even one down to the other pack. So it would be reasonable to give the village the hint if you had a clue in a situation you knew you were a goner.

But was she correct in thinking Firefoot a wolf (or that Mac is for that matter)?

Or is there a scheme she could be pulling off?


EDIT: Aha... it seems this was already under discussion...

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But was she correct in thinking Firefoot a wolf (or that Mac is for that matter)?

Well, Nerwen said Mac is a wolf too, so there's that. Firefoot is a whole different matter. Could be a wolf, certainly, but we know Lottie is wrong about Legate too, so I wouldn't bet on it.

[Macalaure]

Not much time right now.

I have to say, as unhappy as I am with Nerwen's nonsense, it did bring us a wolf. Lottie was under suspicion, but it still could have taken a while to bring her down.

I still hope that she's Sally's bluffing lover, and that she will join us soon. A not unlikely ranger protection could delay that, which is even better: It slows down the killing (which is something we could really use), and it means we'll be able to give her one more Night's worth of info.

[Rikae]

Hm.

I really got the impression that Mac was 100% certain I was lying about being the seer. If there had been doubt in his mind, I think he would have reacted differently.

That could, of course, have been because he was innocent, but it could also be that someone I named as innocent (Firefoot, Lommy, Boro, tp) was in his pack.

[Rikae]

Ok, Shasta has voted for Lottie now. I say we empower Shasta (although it will be best to wait in case of any last-minute developments).

Firefoot's post isn't going anywhere. Even if it isn't discussed again, it will be a small matter for the living to remember it toMorrow, when they're discussing our contribution.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Greenie

Well, Nerwen said Mac is a wolf too, so there's that.

I wouldn't say it's there (Lottie seemed to confess but it doesnt make Nerwen's revealment 100% fool-proof) - even if I'm leaning to trust it more than not at the moment.

Originally Posted by Rikae

That could, of course, have been because he was innocent, but it could also be that someone I named as innocent (Firefoot, Lommy, Boro, tp) was in his pack.

I think all of the four qualify as possible wolves, even several of them, well all of them could be...

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I wouldn't say it's there (Lottie seemed to confess but it doesnt make Nerwen's revealment 100% fool-proof) - even if I'm leaning to trust it more than not at the moment.

I think all of the four qualify as possible wolves, even several of them, well all of them could be...

Not Mac's packmates they couldn't.

I was thinking especially of Firefoot.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

I'd also like to point out that I have been pretty consistent in my suspicion of Mac, and voted for him yesterday bringing him to three votes when Agan had only four.

Haha. Firefoot shooting herself to the foot?

Originally Posted by Lottie

None of this addresses the most important of my points: how did you know, without once suggesting something that was not correct, how the Night kills were distributed between the packs? You hit the nail on the head with your first swing, which would have been almost impossible if you only had access to the information the rest of the village does. You only could have know that that was how the kills fell out if you were, in fact, a member of one of the packs.

And vengeful and angry Lottie shooting straight to the torso then?

It would be nice we'd used a system confirmed by a wolf to tell the people what we know...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Not Mac's packmates they couldn't.

Yeah, but I thought of them generally being wolves to start with...

Originally Posted by Rikae

I was thinking especially of Firefoot.

And now I think we have some pieces falling nicely together...

[A Little Green]

It looks like it's bedtime for me, so

++Shasta

Looks like the most sensible thing to do. Good night my lovelies.

[Rikae]

Lottie is going to be so disappointed to find the seer isn't here.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Lottie is going to be so disappointed to find the seer isn't here.

Unless, of course, the unknown role chose to empower the Seer upon the Seer's death, so that the Seer is allowed two Living dreams per night even after death, on the condition that the results are sent to the player of his choice among the Living and he never sees the results himself. And the power only lasts so long as the unknown remains among the Living, and upon the death of the unknown the Seer entirely loses the ability to dream.

Just saying.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Unless, of course, the unknown role chose to empower the Seer upon the Seer's death, so that the Seer is allowed two Living dreams per night even after death, on the condition that the results are sent to the player of his choice among the Living and he never sees the results himself. And the power only lasts so long as the unknown remains among the Living, and upon the death of the unknown the Seer entirely loses the ability to dream.

Just saying.

Hey, something like that has actually been done before, I remember something like that...

Anyway, I guess empowering Shasta now makes sense. Will wait still for a while in case something unexpected happens...

[the phantom]

Anyway, back at home and ready to return to the reading and fun.

[Rikae]

And the extra kill?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Rikae

And the extra kill?

Kuru messing with us.

[the phantom]

Okay, so just trying a couple things out... Please build off of and poke holes when necessary to refine...

Scenario:
Boro is Seer
Nerwen and Sally are telling the truth & innocent

LIVING
Seer: Boro
Ranger:
Lover: Sally
Lover:

Innocent: Shasta, Lommy

Wolves: Lottie

Unknown: Form, McCaber, Firefoot, Lalaith, Eomer, Morm, Nilp, Mith, Kath

COMPLICATION: Nerwen could have received the PM and reported it accurately despite being guilty- she felt forced to do it accurately or risk being outed as dishonest.

COMPLICATION: Nerwen is the Seer trying to cast doubt on her Seership.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by the phantom

COMPLICATION: Nerwen could have received the PM and reported it accurately despite being guilty- she felt forced to do it accurately or risk being outed as dishonest.

I was thinking about this and I find it unlikely that she would be a Wolf and receive the PM. If she did, then the question is whether it would be worth it for her to say it aloud: after thinking about it, probably yes - even if Lottie was in her own pack, it would be a 1-for-1 person trade for Nerwen with kind of boosting up her own status with the village. (Her other option, not telling anything, could potentially endanger both her and Lottie - Lottie because of the dream, her because she tried to hush it up.) But generally speaking, I wouldn't overcomplicate it. If there is a catch in the whole issue, then I'd rather think it's something like Nerwen being a Seer or Lover pretending something complicated.

[the phantom]

Also, I'll probably want to take a second look at why Rikae and I were killed. Do we take Lottie at face value about Legate? If so, Nerwen/Mith/Lommy certainly aren't in her pack.

Mac's pack killing me Night 1 would make even more sense if-

Agan, Boro, Sally, & Nilp are all innocent (or at least in the other pack).
and/or
Nogrod and/or Firefoot are also in Mac's pack.

Rikae, what's the best you can say about your own murder?

[Aganzir]

Quick comment on my phone when Lommy isn't looking. Lottie's entire case on Firefoot being a wolf rests on her accurate guess of the wolf kills. But I think assuming that similar players were killed by the same pack is just the most logical conclusion, so I don't think it's actually very incriminating.