Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Dead Thread

[Formendacil]

"Greenie, if Nilp is a wolf, post an odd-numbered post at 11am GMT. If he is innocent post an even-numbered one."

Meanwhile in the Dead Thread: "X-posted with Legate."

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

"Greenie, if Nilp is a wolf, post an odd-numbered post at 11am GMT. If he is innocent post an even-numbered one."

Meanwhile in the Dead Thread: "X-posted with Legate."

Imagine.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

If you want to point for my convenience (and Greenie's) some of the highlights of this thread, feel free to do so, it would be most welcome for us newcomers, I am sure!

It's seven pages, but basically all the posts are short - unlike in the Game Thread - so it's a quick read after all.

See you tomorrow (IRL)!

[Blind Guardian]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Also we're obviously not discussing the game in our apartment but you guys should have heard Legate's hysterical maniacal laughter when he just opened the thread.

Are they married or related?

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Send Nienna my best regards! (Well if you read this yourself anyway, all the best for the odd summer ahead!)

She'll read this herself, as long as she's not skimming for my posts only (which she did in the Live thread when there were chunks to catch).

It's a rather quiet summer (at home, I mean!) and liable to quite Mootless, I'm afraid--but I'd rather live through the Great Pandemic of Our Times in the summer than the winter.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

Are they married or related?

Can't they be both?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

Are they married or related?

Neither.

[Loslote]

Okay, look, don't spread this around too much, but they're actually the same person

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

I'd rather live through the Great Pandemic of Our Times in the summer than the winter.

Agreed.

In the summer you can just get out somewhere. In winter it would be just the four walls around you day after day.

Originally Posted by hS

Well, if Lottie is right and I'm reading Greenie right, both of those quotes are from wolves...

Yeah. That possibility crossed my mind as well.


Anyway, it's good night from me as well (it's 1:40AM here).

[Blind Guardian]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Can't they be both?

I don't think a brother and sister would get married

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Neither.

Okay I'm confused.

Just buddies?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

Just buddies?

Arch-rivals, who, through a series of hilarious and improbable events, wound up living together.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by BG

Okay I'm confused.

Just buddies?

They've been together like ten+ years, but are not married.

You know us weird Europeans who think marriage is just one conservative tradition that you might step into or not, but it is not something anyone requires or thinks of great general importance (except the super-conservatives and the sexual minorities, both for somewhat different reasons) - although any reason for a grand party is always nice.


EDIT: Actually rephrased the expression "of no importance" with "no great general importance". Just to not overexaggerate things. Anyway, let's not stick with this issue. Lottie answered the questions a lot better than I did.

[Nogrod]

Here's a wolf speaking!

Originally Posted by Mac

Let's get the communication stuff out of the way before we get into the meat of things.

I think it makes more sense to communicate known wolves over known innocents. Obviously, though, we don't want the dead to turn a wolf into the medium.

What about:

If Brinniel is a wolf, empower Kath.
If Kath is a wolf, empower Mac.
If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Nilp.
If Nilpaurion Felagund is a wolf, empower Pitch.
If Pitchwife is a wolf, empower Rikae.
If Rikae is a wolf, empower Sally.
If satansaloser2005 is a wolf, empower Shasta.
If Shastanis Althreduin is a wolf, empower Lommy.
If Thinlomien is a wolf, empower Brinniel.

If you don't have a known wolf, empower no one.

There's of course a possibility that two wolves are adjacent in the alphabet, but what are you gonna do.

Let's hope no innocent takes this even half-seriously.

[Loslote]

I'd be happy to empower Nilp if it tells the Living to kill Mac already. But yeah, that's a really annoying idea from a Dead perspective.

[Loslote]

I like Rikae's analysis of Greenie's dreams a lot more than Brinn's.

[Formendacil]

The fact that it is Mac suggesting a vote=Dead Reveal scheme may be reason enough for me to dislike it: enough that I think we shouldn't vote at all--IF the village is going to lynch a Wolf without our help.

Obviously, if they need us to tip them over, we should do that. But I find that I greatly dislike this "dictate to the Dead how to vote" idea,and if we are not needed, I think we should send a message that we will not be dictated to.

[A Little Green]

Good morning fellow corpses!

Originally Posted by Lottie

So Greenie, you dreamed Nilp, Rikae, and Shasta innocent, right? Who was your dream last Night?

Yes -
Shasta (ordo) N1,
Nilp (beast hunter) N2,
Rikae (ordo) N3.

(Waiting for the living to figure this out. I thought I left enough of a clue to them in that list but looking at the confusion in the game thread obviously not )

And (sigh) Legate N4.

Basically, I reread the entire thread during the Night (turns out it's much less of an undertaking when you can ignore half the people there!), went on full conspiracy theory mode and pretty much decided the remaining wolves are Mac, Kath, Legate and Lommy. I figured dreaming Legate would give me the best information on other people in case he did turn out innocent after all, but oh well. At least we don't have to worry about that.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Yes -
Shasta (ordo) N1,
Nilp (beast hunter) N2,
Rikae (ordo) N3.

(Waiting for the living to figure this out. I thought I left enough of a clue to them in that list but looking at the confusion in the game thread obviously not )

And (sigh) Legate N4.

Basically, I reread the entire thread during the Night (turns out it's much less of an undertaking when you can ignore half the people there!), went on full conspiracy theory mode and pretty much decided the remaining wolves are Mac, Kath, Legate and Lommy. I figured dreaming Legate would give me the best information on other people in case he did turn out innocent after all, but oh well. At least we don't have to worry about that.

I mean, we figured it out in the Dead Thread, the clues were fine. And yeah, I think your conspiracy pack is very, very likely!

[Blind Guardian]

Wolves
Legate
?
?
?

Cobbler
Pitch (presumed)

Seer
Greenie

Ranger
?

Beast Hunter
Nilp

Villagers
Huinesoron
Loslote
Nogrod
Blind Guardian
Form
Rikae
Shasta
?

Remaining:
Brinn
Kath
Lommy
Mac
Sally
Pitch

Of these there are 3 Wolves, 1 Cobbler, 1 Ranger, 1 Villager

Of the six remaining unknowns I'm up for saying Pitch is the Cobbler.

If Greenie is right then the Wolves are: Mac, Kath, and Lommy.

That leaves Sally and Brinn as the Ranger and a Villager.

Congratulations guys, we've done it! If they don't figure this out then I would like to suggest to BoroMod that our Medium whacks everyone across the face. No words, just a good old whacking.

(Also Boro if you Mod again I will write up the stories for you! I love writing!)

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lottie

And yeah, I think your conspiracy pack is very, very likely!

I think so too, though I have to say after my reread my entire page of notes on the remaining unknowns was highlighted red (for likely wolf)

I am somewhat sure about Lommy now though - the way she repeatedly criticises the Night kill and says something along the lines of "obviously the wolves think nothing like me", and the way Legate kept listing her as an innocent while vaguely saying it's just a gut feeling and he always trusts his gut feeling with Lommy (what an easy way to avoid suspecting a fellow!). And she'd fit in well with Kath too, saying she doesn't see where the suspicion of Kath comes from while agreeing that the argument against her makes sense, and saying Legate defending Kath looks weird but defending Kath herself in the same post Incidentally Mac defends Kath too while agreeing that the argument against her makes sense. It's almost too tidy which makes me think I'm wrong about one of them and there's one wolf who's not tangled in this at all - namely Brinn, Pitch, or Sally. (Both Mac and Sally kept giving Brinn passes for weird reasons, btw, I'm not sure if it's a pattern or just coincidence though.)

Not that it's really my job to figure this out anymore

Also one more thing that I completely forgot to mention in my first post - if I dreamed the Cobbler I'd see them as an ordinary villager. So it's still possible that Shasta or Rikae is the Cobbler! I'm fairly sure Shasta isn't, and Rikae is a possibility though wouldn't be my first guess.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Kath

[Mac's DT communication plan] seems really logical and a good idea.

Woooooooolf!

Mac's plan is great for the wolves, because it means Greenie not using the Medium to boost a vote on a wolf (or by an innocent). Since the Medium is only revealed at DL, this vote would therefore have no effect toDay, and by toMorrow, the wolves can hope to have good/evil equality (though not sufficient to win).

hS

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Huin

Mac's plan is great for the wolves, because it means Greenie not using the Medium to boost a vote on a wolf (or by an innocent). Since the Medium is only revealed at DL, this vote would therefore have no effect toDay, and by toMorrow, the wolves can hope to have good/evil equality (though not sufficient to win).

Agreed. If the rest of the village falls for that, they kind of deserve a wolf victory.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Agreed. If the rest of the village falls for that, they kind of deserve a wolf victory.

Sadly it seems a little like that: both Nilp and Kath have already endorsed the idea...

It would have been nice if Nilp would vote Mac - then we could both give a Mac one more vote and follow his list which says that empower Nilp if Mac is a wolf. That would be sweet indeed. Letting his own dogs bite him, as we say in Finland.

Regrettably Nilp says:

Originally Posted by Nilp

PS. To the Dead thread, I'm endorsing Mac's list. And despite being on my list, this line:

makes me want to trust you. Please don't be a Wolf.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nog

It would have been nice if Nilp would vote Mac - then we could both give a Mac one more vote and follow his list which says that empower Nilp if Mac is a wolf. That would be sweet indeed. Letting his own dogs bite him, as we say in Finland.

Agreed again. Instead it looks like the village is, to quote another Finnish saying, urinating on their own cereal. Also Nilp's endorsement of Mac's plan is especially worrying as, given his more or less known innocent status, other remaining innocents are more likely to follow his lead.

[Boromir88]

Now that he's said it, I can finally tell Lottie...

Originally Posted by Nilp

(I was more disappointed with my DAY 1 choice: it was down to Lottie or Bryn [sic], and guess who I chose.)

Very close Night 2, but yet not quite.

Originally Posted by BG

(Also Boro if you Mod again I will write up the stories for you! I love writing!)

Ohh, thank you. It may be a while before I want to mod another one, but don't be surprised if you hear from me to keep you to your word.

Originally Posted by BG

Congratulations guys, we've done it! If they don't figure this out then I would like to suggest to BoroMod that our Medium whacks everyone across the face. No words, just a good old whacking.

No words and just whacking might be good. I do constantly worry about over-stepping the 'official' capacity.

I didn't see any unfair advantage to convey the general feeling of displeasure with the entire village voting for Form yesterday. It probably would have been clear enough the fact he was the one mediumized, I just found myself laughing (but also agreeing) with the hair pulling and frustration that was going on in this thread yesterday, and wanted to convey that through Form in the narration since he was getting mob lynched anyway.

I do always attempt to tread carefully though, because even as a neutral official, I was asked if I unconsciously find myself rooting for one side over another? I've always felt the village starts out at a minor disadvantage (usually not so bad it can't be overcome) but there is a reason, looking at Kuru's stats why there is a slight advantage to the wolves at least at the beginning. And even when I'm on my own side, as a werebear/weredragon, I tend to want to slaughter the wolves first, before the townspeople .

I guess all I hope for is balance where both sides feel like they had their chances to either win or lose and those decisions rest in their own hands, not from some sort of unfair advantage given by the mod.

There will be plenty of time for further discussion after, I do quite like how the BH role turned out. But there's still a game to play out that can very much go either way and at least in the narrations I won't be confirming or denying the reasoning behind the dead's choices for their medium. Even if I find myself agreeing with Nog's position here...

So it starts again...

Why don't they learn that is not going to work? It's just a waste of time they'd need to put in reading Greenie's posts to find what hS did so nicely.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I do always attempt to tread carefully though, because even as a neutral official, I was asked if I unconsciously find myself rooting for one side over another?

The only place I feel you might have given away more than you meant to is here:

Originally Posted by Night 4 narration

She was in the middle of a disturbing vision. She clearly saw 1 villager's face and the face turned into a horrible, furry werewolf. There were 3 other shadowy figures in the vision but she could not make them out.

Which seems pretty clearly to indicate a) the Seer dreamt of a wolf last Night, and b) she hadn't dreamt of one before that. Both of which we dead'uns know to be true! I don't think any of the Living have caught it, though, because they're all convinced she voted Legate based on a dream.

hS

[Huinesoron]

Er...

Originally Posted by Mac

Day3

Her list helps a lot.
not dreamt of: Brinn, Form, me, Pitch, Sally, Lommy
possible wolf: Kath, Legate
possible innocent: Nilp, Rikae, Shasta

So Mac has just pulled out all three innocent dreams from Greenie's Seer-post. If he's a wolf - does he realise how strongly he's pointed the innocents at it? And if he's not a wolf - then why does he act like one?

hS

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Mac

I'm now imagining a scenario where Legate was super nervous and paranoid all the way through every single night and convinced the pack to go for whoever suspected him each time.

Legate, is this true?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Now that he's said it, I can finally tell Lottie...

Very close Night 2, but yet not quite.

AhhhhhhhhhHHHHHHH so close!!

Boromod, I have a question: if we vote to Mediumize Form again, could his disembodied voice ghostly whisper the words "you're all terrible" in the narration?

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Boromod, I have a question: if we vote to Mediumize Form again, could his disembodied voice ghostly whisper the words "you're all terrible" in the narration?

+-this

hS

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

So Mac has just pulled out all three innocent dreams from Greenie's Seer-post. If he's a wolf - does he realise how strongly he's pointed the innocents at it? And if he's not a wolf - then why does he act like one?

My thoughts as well...

I'm still a bit unsure what we should do toDay. I mean yes, with not empowering anyone we'd send a message to them that we have no known wolf - which is correct and would probably be interpreted correctly by the villagers as what it says (I doubt they would pick from there any annoyance form our part if that is what we'd want to say).

But then again, isn't our job to try and get wolves lynched?

We're getting pretty close to a situation where if there is even a slight feel of a wagon starting on a one of them the others might tighten their lines and it might end up close. Then our vote might make the difference.

So, I'd suggest we don't rush into voting to empower some specific person quite yet, but wait and see how it goes in the Game Thread.

And maybe share some general ideas as to what would be our best course of action.

[Loslote]

If our vote might swing it to someone we suspect (Kath, Mac, Lommy, maybe Sally or Pitch) from someone we don't (Shasta, Rikae, Nilp), we definitely should do that, regardless of what "message" it sends. If it's another mob lynch, we either shouldn't vote or, if Boro will allow us to Mediumize one of our own Dead friends, do that as a protest Medium vote. I will be around but maybe a little distracted for the last half hour before the DL, and we can have two innocents not vote or vote early and be overvoted if need be.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But then again, isn't our job to try and get wolves lynched?

We're getting pretty close to a situation where if there is even a slight feel of a wagon starting on a one of them the others might tighten their lines and it might end up close. Then our vote might make the difference.

So, I'd suggest we don't rush into voting to empower some specific person quite yet, but wait and see how it goes in the Game Thread.

I absolutely agree: killing Wolves is the full priority.

But if, for example, Mac is already on the chopping block, I say we maintain silence.

[Loslote]

Of these six people:

Kath
Mac
Lommy
Sally
Brinn
Pitch

We have three or four evils (three wolves, one cobbler - I am fairly confident the cobbler is not one of Greenie's dreams, so probably four). Odds should be really good that they hit a wolf toDay. I don't know why the living still seem so confused. What are the innocents doing?

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

My thoughts as well...

I'm still a bit unsure what we should do toDay. I mean yes, with not empowering anyone we'd send a message to them that we have no known wolf - which is correct and would probably be interpreted correctly by the villagers as what it says (I doubt they would pick from there any annoyance form our part if that is what we'd want to say).

But then again, isn't our job to try and get wolves lynched?

Absolutely, and I agree with waiting and seeing. I think following Mac's plan (and not Mediumming anyone, to tell them we have no known wolf) is a plausible Plan C, but I think we can do better.

My Plan A would be to follow the Mac plan, but with a wolf as the target of the Medium's vote. So Nilp , Brinn , or maybe Mac - whichever votes for a likely wolf. The main issues here are a) they might not vote that way, and b) we'd be deliberately lying to the village.

Plan B would be to ignore the Mac plan entirely and just Medium someone voting for a probable wolf. This gives us the highest chance of affecting today's lynch, but would be wildly misinterpreted if the villagers buy into Mac's plan. We'd definitely want to avoid Mediumming Pitch, Sally, or Lommy, since those three would 'implicate' a known innocent.

hS

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Absolutely, and I agree with waiting and seeing. I think following Mac's plan (and not Mediumming anyone, to tell them we have no known wolf) is a plausible Plan C, but I think we can do better.

My Plan A would be to follow the Mac plan, but with a wolf as the target of the Medium's vote. So Nilp , Brinn , or maybe Mac - whichever votes for a likely wolf. The main issues here are a) they might not vote that way, and b) we'd be deliberately lying to the village.

Plan B would be to ignore the Mac plan entirely and just Medium someone voting for a probable wolf. This gives us the highest chance of affecting today's lynch, but would be wildly misinterpreted if the villagers buy into Mac's plan. We'd definitely want to avoid Mediumming Pitch, Sally, or Lommy, since those three would 'implicate' a known innocent.

hS

They'd better not hold off on voting until the last ten minutes, or we'll never be able to sort through all the ramifications in time.

[Loslote]

But yes, I agree with you, Huey - I'd lean towards even deliberately misleading them into thinking we know a wolf over holding our vote.

[Loslote]

If Pitch was a wolf, he would have known that Form was innocent, and I don't think he would have reacted so strongly to Rikae's Seer hinting. But if he was a cobbler, he would have shown up as an ordo, and wouldn't have had to worry about the Seer at all. I'm very confused about him right now.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lottie

But yes, I agree with you, Huey - I'd lean towards even deliberately misleading them into thinking we know a wolf over holding our vote.

I agree. Right now I still think Mac, Lommy and Kath are the likeliest candidates for our remaining wolves, though I could be very wrong too. But guys - if we wanted to nudge them towards having a look at Lommy, in Mac's list that would mean empowering Brinn again Trouble is, they'd probably just think we were trolling and not take us seriously. And anyway, a Macwolf might be a bigger problem at the moment than a Lommywolf, given how he's taking the reins now..

Second thing - I won't be around at deadline (it's 1AM here and I'm not good at staying up late) so if we need to react quickly to last-minute voting again I won't be much help. But if we do come up with a plan by around 2h before deadline, I can vote then and you guys can still change the plan afterwards if something comes up?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I agree. Right now I still think Mac, Lommy and Kath are the likeliest candidates for our remaining wolves, though I could be very wrong too. But guys - if we wanted to nudge them towards having a look at Lommy, in Mac's list that would mean empowering Brinn again Trouble is, they'd probably just think we were trolling and not take us seriously. And anyway, a Macwolf might be a bigger problem at the moment than a Lommywolf, given how he's taking the reins now..

Yes, I think Mac is a very big problem right now for the village. He seems to be very good at leading the innocents astray.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Second thing - I won't be around at deadline (it's 1AM here and I'm not good at staying up late) so if we need to react quickly to last-minute voting again I won't be much help. But if we do come up with a plan by around 2h before deadline, I can vote then and you guys can still change the plan afterwards if something comes up?

Yes, we can afford for two innocents to vote early and still be able to change our minds last minute. Probably a safe early vote if you have to vote before the Living start voting would be for Nilp, as that would implicate Mac.